@CryptoHayes
BitMEX 联合创始人，如今是自家家族办公室 Maelstrom 的首席投资官——也是加密圈最值得引用的宏观随笔作者。他的整套框架浓缩成一句话：决定比特币价格的是法币的数量，而不是货币的价格。他把这一切写进署名、标注日期、编号且言辞粗粝的长文里——正因如此，它才可被逐条核查。
简而言之。 Arthur Hayes writes the crypto market's most-read macro newsletter, Crypto Trader Digest, and runs Maelstrom, the family office built on his BitMEX fortune. His thesis rarely changes: central banks and treasuries will keep creating fiat to fund deficits, wars and the AI build-out, and Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to that expansion. What changes — sometimes violently — is his timing. Across 2026 he swung from telling readers to sit on their hands, to declaring a new all-time high a “foregone conclusion” at a price Bitcoin would not see again for four months, to admitting in print four weeks later that he had erred, to calling the bottom almost to the day. He publishes both halves, which is more than most.
Hayes 生于 1985 年，2008 年在沃顿商学院取得经济学学位，曾在德意志银行从事股票衍生品交易，随后转入花旗集团，在香港担任 delta one 交易员。2014 年，他与 Ben Delo 和 Samuel Reed 共同创立了 BitMEX。该交易所 100 倍杠杆的永续合约成为加密杠杆交易的范本，也让三人极为富有。
这段经历也以刑事案件收场。三人于 2020 年 10 月被起诉，Hayes 于 2022 年 2 月认罪，承认违反《银行保密法》——BitMEX 在为美国客户提供服务的同时，未执行反洗钱与客户身份识别方案。他被判处六个月居家监禁与两年缓刑，并同意支付 1000 万美元。他并未入狱服刑。特朗普总统于 2025 年 3 月底特赦了 Hayes、Delo 与 Reed。阅读他关于货币与监管政策的文章时，理应把这段历史一并带上。
离开 BitMEX 后，他执掌 Maelstrom——一个只做多的家族办公室账簿，早期持有包括 Ethena 与 Ether.fi 在内的代币仓位——并大致每一到三周发表一期 Crypto Trader Digest。2026 年 8 月，他结束“退休”，出任 Flop Labs 首席执行官，该公司计划推出代币 FLOP，作为人工智能代理算力的货币——这一消息发布于他本人 8 月 19 日的文章中，测试网参与者可获得约 20% 供应量的空投，且没有预售。如今他不只是评论者，而是一位手握待发代币的经营者。
Sources: cryptohayes.substack.com · x.com/CryptoHayes · dated public interviews and press
Top-down liquidity, expressed through derivatives. Hayes starts from the plumbing — Treasury issuance and buybacks, the Fed's balance sheet, bank credit creation, the BOJ and the yen carry trade, Chinese lending — and treats Bitcoin as the fastest-reacting claim on total fiat supply. He states it plainly: he believes the quantity of money determines Bitcoin's price, not the interest rate. His book is long-only and large, so he expresses caution by refusing to add rather than by going short, and hedges with put spreads and options rather than selling spot. The strength is the framework: he was structurally right that liquidity would expand, and his essays name the mechanism before the market prices it. The weakness is entry timing — a framework that says “eventually” gets used to justify buying anything, and in May 2026 it put him at maximum conviction on a high that held for four months.
结构上极度看多：他预期法币贬值会加速，并表示 Maelstrom 处于最大风险敞口。请把这个数字读作对方向的信心，而非对时机的信心——他自己 2026 年的记录表明，这是两个不同的问题。
Nine dated calls taken from his own newsletter, not from press paraphrase — his words, his publication dates, charted against real price. Ten Crypto Trader Digest essays fall inside our price window; these are the ones containing an actual BTC or ETH call. The shape of the year is worth stating up front: his best calls were the ones with no number in them. Two bottom calls landed almost to the day. The one time he named a target and a date-free certainty — “retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion” — he published it on 11 May 2026, at a price Bitcoin did not close above again until 22 September — and the levels he named, $90,000 and $126,000, have still not come.
“It behooves punters to limit the use of leverage and wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon.”
He deliberately refused to pick a side — either the fall from $126,000 to $60,000 was the whole move, or Bitcoin dumps further — and told readers to de-leverage and wait for a Fed all-clear. Both halves are still unresolved. The essay now predates our price window, which begins 8 March, so the chart anchors at $67,340 rather than his publication-day price. From there BTC fell −13.0% to $58,566 on 1 July, ran +28.6% to $86,597 on 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+25.6%). So waiting has cost money, but the drawdown he warned about did arrive. Logged open: the AI banking crisis this essay is built on has not happened in the seven and a half months since.
SourceThis Is Fine — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”
Two things he got right at $74,297: the spike he flagged landed inside his band — BTC printed $82,018 on 11 May, +10.4% — and declining to deploy fresh money was right through the summer, because price then fell −21.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. The later recovery went back into his band, to $86,597 on 22 September (+16.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+13.8%). The miss belongs on the same card: in this essay he wrote that he hoped Bitcoin could hold $60,000 in a crash. It did not. BTC closed at $58,566 on 1 July.
SourceNo Trade Zone — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
This is the one that matters. He called a new all-time high a foregone conclusion, said he expected the rally to turn explosive after punching through $90,000, and said he would take Maelstrom's book to maximum risk — and he published it at $82,018, a close Bitcoin did not see again for more than four months. It fell −28.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. The recovery finally cleared his entry in late September, peaking at $86,597 on 22 September (+5.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+3.1%) — but $90,000 has still not been reached, and $126,000 has not been retaken. It stays went against: neither level he named has arrived, and anyone who followed him in sat up to 28.6% under water before getting back to roughly flat. He recanted 28 days later, in writing — see the next call.
SourceThe Butterfly Touch — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
Written at $63,274, and it happened in exactly that sequence: BTC dumped −7.4% to $58,566 on 1 July, then pumped +36.9% to $86,597 by 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+33.7%). The same essay contains the sentence most commentators never write — “Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.” Marked played out on price, and worth noting for the correction.
SourceReality Test — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“As credit expands against a deceleration of AI CAPEX spend, Bitcoin will bottom and begin a secular rise.”
Close to exact. From $63,465, the lowest close that followed was $62,844 on 17 August — just −1.0% below him — before a +36.4% run to $86,597 on 22 September; BTC holds $84,580 (+33.3%). The caveat is on the card because it is in the same essay: his guessed levels were too low. He floated a $60,000 to $70,000 chop with $50,000 downside, and Bitcoin instead broke out above his range within a month and never came close to $50,000. Right on direction, wrong on the numbers.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”
His first hard number with a real deadline, and it is still live — 31 December 2026 is under three months out. His own “~2.6x” checks against our data: ETH was $1,859 when he wrote it. It has since run +49.3% to $2,775 on 22 September and holds $2,681 (+44.2%). But $5,000 needs roughly another +87% from here, so he is well behind pace. Logged open, not credited — and note that on 2 September he restated the same end-of-2026 Ether target at $10,000, which is a later call on this page.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Whether Bessent pumps fast or slow, Bitcoin will continue its rally.”
His position then: Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt are the new liquidity tap, the next bull market “just began”, and Maelstrom is back at maximum risk. From the $77,712 he wrote at, BTC first slipped −2.7% to $75,590 on 16 September, then ran +11.4% to $86,597 on 22 September — the highest close in our price window — and holds $84,580 (+8.8%). That is the rally continuing, as he said, with a shallow dip on the way. Marked played out as a direction call; he named no target. One disclosure: we date this to the essay's own timestamp of 24 August. Press covering it called it his 25 August essay; anchored to the 25th ($78,974) the call reads −4.3% at the dip, +9.7% at the high and +7.1% now — the same verdict.
SourceSame Same But Different — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Maelstrom’s preferred cryptos haven’t changed. Our structural Bitcoin long will anchor the portfolio. The more speculative short-term end of 2026 bets are still Ether ($10k price target), Ethena ($0.5 price target), and Ether.fi ($2 price target).”
Read the word still carefully. Four weeks earlier he put his end-of-2026 Ether target at $5,000; here he writes that nothing has changed and prints $10,000 — the number quietly doubled while the deadline stayed 31 December 2026. We log it as its own call rather than an edit of the older one. ETH was $2,418 the day he published, dipped −1.1% to $2,391 on 3 September, ran +14.8% to $2,775 on 22 September, and holds $2,681 (+10.9%). $10,000 needs roughly another +273% in under three months. Logged open, and it is the most demanding number on this page.
SourceAtención — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“This essay should give one confidence that the choppy nature of the crypto markets post the late August mini-pump will end soon. The amount of dollars in the system will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and selected shitcoins will rise in in price.”
His newest essay argues that if the leading AI labs slow down under a “Safety First” banner, the debt that financed their compute goes bad — much of it, he says, sitting on US insurers' books — and Washington must either become the compute buyer of last resort or print money for a bailout. “Either way, we as Bitcoin holders and crypto investors win.” (The doubled “in in” is in the original.) The chart anchors at $81,169 for 21 September; the next daily point is $86,597 (+6.7%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+4.2%). Do not credit him with that jump: he published at 23:07 UTC and our daily points are taken at midnight UTC, so much of the move may have happened before he wrote. Anchored to 22 September instead, the call reads −2.3% now. Twelve days old and with no level named, it is logged open.
SourceSafety First — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com结论是我们依据真实价格对他公开立场的判读，而非他本人的打分。每一条引文都已在其所链接的文章页面上逐字核对，且每篇文章都抓取了两次，以排除单次抓取出错的可能。价格与百分比来自绘制图表所用的同一组 CoinGecko 数据。不足一个月的判断，其评级可能、也必然会发生变化。
Hayes 不卖信号也不卖课程，通讯完全免费——但他是加密圈利益冲突最深的声音之一，而这些冲突在 2026 年 8 月发生了实质变化。其中大部分是他自己披露的；这里把它们集中列出。
他管理着一个由 BitMEX 财富出资的只做多家族办公室组合，已披露持有比特币、以太坊、Ethena 与 Ether.fi 的仓位。当他写下自己要转向“最大风险”时，他描述的是已经建好的头寸。他的文章与账簿始终指向同一个方向。
自 2026 年 8 月 18–19 日起，他出任 Flop Labs 首席执行官，并正在推出 FLOP——一种用于人工智能代理算力的代币，计划向测试网参与者空投约 20% 的供应量，创世区块目标定在 2027 年。他表示项目由自己出资，没有预售，也没有风投份额。尽管如此，他仍是一位在预测流动性大潮的同时，准备把自己的代币发行进这波大潮的评论者。
他是那家把 100 倍杠杆普及开来的交易所的联合创始人，2022 年就违反《银行保密法》认罪，支付 1000 万美元，服完六个月居家监禁与两年缓刑，并于 2025 年 3 月获特朗普总统特赦。如今他大量撰写关于美国货币与政治政策的文章。这一点请自行斟酌。
“Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.”
08 Jun 2026 · 白纸黑字认下五月的失手“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
11 May 2026 · published at a high that held four months“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
08 Jun 2026 · 兑现了的那条判断，而且顺序无误引文取自他本人的公开来源；均为其表述的观点，而非投资建议。
Hayes 发表的是文章而非视频，因此他的长内容多为主题演讲和在他人频道上的客座访谈。以下为近期有日期的例子，每个日期均已在视频页面确认：
Arthur Hayes Bitcoin 2026 Keynote: 21 Weeks LaterBitcoin Magazine 主题演讲——伊朗战争、人工智能造成的失业与美联储。27 Apr 2026
The AI Trade Is Killing Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Breaks It DownCointelegraph 访谈，就在他于 Reality Test 中转向的几天之后。12 Jun 2026
Bitcoin to $200K And AI Is the Next 2008 | Arthur HayesCoin Bureau 播客——完整阐述人工智能信贷崩塌的论点。21 Aug 2026
The Godfather Of Crypto Trading: My Final Warning To Bitcoin HoldersAltcoin Daily——他当前对流动性与杠杆的立场。23 Aug 2026Arthur Hayes 是美国投资者与随笔作者，1985 年生。他曾在德意志银行与花旗集团从事股票衍生品交易，随后于 2014 年与 Ben Delo、Samuel Reed 共同创立加密衍生品交易所 BitMEX。如今他以首席投资官身份执掌家族办公室 Maelstrom，撰写 Crypto Trader Digest 通讯，并自 2026 年 8 月起出任 Flop Labs 首席执行官。
没有。他于 2020 年 10 月被起诉，并于 2022 年 2 月认罪，承认违反《银行保密法》，原因是 BitMEX 在为美国客户提供服务的同时，未设立反洗钱与客户身份识别方案。他被判处六个月居家监禁与两年缓刑，并支付 1000 万美元。他并未入狱服刑，特朗普总统于 2025 年 3 月底特赦了他。
并无公开证实。凭借 BitMEX 的股份，他被广泛描述为亿万富翁，其家族办公室 Maelstrom 也持有大量加密仓位，但没有任何经确认的数字。你看到的任何具体数额都应视为估算，而非事实。
His direction has been more reliable than his timing. On this page his two bottom calls — 8 June and 4 August 2026 — landed almost to the day, while his most confident target call, published 11 May 2026, came at a price Bitcoin did not close above again for four months, and its $90,000 and $126,000 levels have not been reached. He is also not a neutral observer: he runs a long-only crypto book and is launching his own token. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
他主张决定比特币价格的是法币数量而非利率——因此他跟踪财政部发债与回购、美联储资产负债表、银行信贷创造、日元套息交易以及中国的信贷投放，然后据此加减仓位，持有一个只做多的账簿。他表达谨慎的方式是拒绝加仓而非做空，并用期权与价差看跌期权对冲。
Hayes 只交易一个想法——法币还会更多——并且下重注。你的直觉与他有多接近？用 Trader Passport 真实地量一量。
