@Scaramucci
一位把自己的钱押在自己嘴上的华尔街资产配置者：斯卡拉穆奇说他逾 70% 的净资产在比特币里，而他管理的基金因加密敞口让投资者连续两个季度亏损。他说个不停，公开而且有日期——这让他异常容易被打分。下面这份成绩单，是刻意混合的。
简而言之。 Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, a Goldman Sachs alumnus, Harvard Law graduate and — for eleven days in 2017 — White House Communications Director. In crypto he is one of the most quotable institutional bulls alive: a four-year-cycle believer who reads sentiment extremes, buys drawdowns and carries a $1M Bitcoin target for 2032. His 2026 record splits cleanly in two. The bottom and target calls he put a date on — “close to the bottom” in March, “$70K by the end of July” in June — were wrong, and expensively so. The directional reads he made once the market had actually broken — “it's going to grind higher because the sentiment is terrible” in late July — have worked, as has his mid-September call that Bitcoin would go higher off the CLARITY Act's failure. He is also on record conceding he blew his 2025 $150k target outright.
斯卡拉穆奇从高盛私人财富管理部起步，与人共同创办投资合伙企业 Oscar Capital Management（2001 年售予 Neuberger Berman），并于 2005 年创立 SkyBridge——他至今仍以管理合伙人身份执掌的另类资产管理公司。他也是会议与创投平台 SALT 的创办人兼主席、美国外交关系协会会员，并著有五本书。他持有塔夫茨大学经济学学士与哈佛法学院法律博士学位。2017 年他进入唐纳德·特朗普的总统交接委员会，并出任——以短暂著称的——白宫通讯联络主任：这一任期持续了十一天，也让他的名字远远越出了金融圈。
His crypto conviction is unusually literal. He has said repeatedly that more than 70% of his net worth is in Bitcoin, and SkyBridge's flagship $1.3bn Opportunity Fund carries roughly 64% of its holdings in crypto and digital assets — a bet that cost it −18% in Q4 2025 and −12.9% in Q1 2026, two consecutive losing quarters. That is the context for everything below: when he says buy the drawdown, he is not speculating about somebody else's money. It also cuts the other way, and the record here says so plainly — he held a $150,000 year-end target through 2025 and later conceded in a Benzinga interview that he had got it wrong, having missed the scale of the whale selling. Two of the eleven 2026 calls charted here also went against him.
Sources: skybridge.com · x.com/Scaramucci · dated third-party coverage (CNBC, TheStreet, Benzinga/Yahoo Finance, Coinage, The Block)
自上而下的配置者，四年周期的信奉者。斯卡拉穆奇用供应机制（2100 万上限、减半时间表）、主权债务与货币贬值，以及机构管道（现货 ETF、托管、监管）来框定比特币——然后把情绪极值当作入场计时器：接近零的恐慌与贪婪指数、超卖的周线 RSI、被迫卖出而非基本面破损。他是一个以多年视角买入回撤的人，而不是交易回撤的人。反复出现的弱点是择时：他的结构性判断大体正确，但他为之附上的日期与点位——3 月的底、7 月前的 7 万美元、2025 年的 15 万美元——一次又一次太早、太高。
Structurally very bullish — a $1M 2032 target and 70%+ of his own net worth in BTC — and more constructive near term since mid-September, when he called Bitcoin higher off the CLARITY Act's failure. His own cycle model still pencils in the full recovery for Q4 2026 into early 2027.
Eleven dated statements from a rolling 2026 sample, each one re-fetched from its source and confirmed verbatim on that page before it was charted. Three are his own X posts; eight are dated third-party coverage. Scaramucci makes two very different kinds of call, and we have deliberately kept both: timed, falsifiable ones (“close to the bottom”, “$70K by the end of July”) and open-ended structural ones (“it cannot be devalued”, “$100,000 eventually”). The timed ones are where he has been hurt — both of the calls marked went against below carried a date. The reads he made after the market had already broken have aged much better.
“Bitcoin going higher off the Clarity Act failure.”
A one-line call, posted at 16:24 UTC, that the CLARITY Act stalling was good for Bitcoin, not bad — he repeated the point on CNBC on 22 September (“I think Bitcoin is a standalone as a digital store”). BTC was at $75,590 on that day's chart point and has never closed lower since (+0.0%): it reached $86,597 (+14.6%) six days later and holds $85,466 (+13.1%). One caveat on the anchor: that point is from 00:00 UTC, about 16 hours before the post, but the next day's point, $76,147, was barely higher — the call worked from either.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin going higher off the Clarity Act failure.” — @Scaramucci on X↗ x.com“And by October I think you'll see the prices rallying again.”
Speaking at the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium with BTC at $77,297, he put a month on the turn — October — while calling the CLARITY Act politically dead. The rally came, slightly ahead of schedule: after a worst dip of −2.2%, BTC ran to $86,597 (+12.0%) on 22 September and stands at $85,466 (+10.6%) in early October. Prices were rallying by October, as he said, so we grade it played out — noting that the move began in late September rather than in the month he named.
SourceWhy Bitcoin Could Reach a $12 Trillion Market Cap, According to Anthony Scaramucci (Coinage / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“As the halving cycle comes in again, and we cut the supply of coins again, it will tighten price, and I think you'll see the thing move back up over 100,000.”
He called it “a clear bear market” and put the next real catalyst — the halving — roughly 20 months away. The timing luck was remarkable: $64,491 that day is the lowest close since, so BTC has never traded lower (+0.0%), ran to $86,597 (+34.3%) and sits +32.5% higher at $85,466. But the number he named was $100,000, BTC is still 14.5% below it, and he attached no deadline — so we log it open, not a win.
SourceBitcoin's Price Crosses $65K, But Anthony Scaramucci Says $100K Catalyst Could Be 20 Months Away (CNBC via Stocktwits / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“It's going to grind higher because the sentiment is terrible”
His cleanest call of the year, and the one with no number attached: with the Fear & Greed Index at 28 and BTC at $65,052, he argued exhausted sellers meant a slow climb rather than a fresh leg down. That is exactly what happened — only a −3.5% dip, a run to $86,597 (+33.1%) and $85,466 (+31.4%) now. A grind, not a surge, just as described.
SourceEx-Trump advisor believes Bitcoin will grind higher after crashing (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ sg.finance.yahoo.com“If you believe Bitcoin is the operating layer for the future of money and a digital store of value, you stay invested.”
He put a weight on the conviction — roughly 30% of a fresh portfolio in Bitcoin — days after the cycle low, with BTC at $64,111. Staying invested paid: the worst subsequent dip was −2.9%, the high $86,597 (+35.1%), and BTC is +33.3% at $85,466. Worth noting he hedged himself in the same interview: “I've been humbled by markets. I could be wrong about Bitcoin.”
SourceAnthony Scaramucci's Model Portfolio: 30% to Bitcoin, Some Gold, 'Bet the Long Term of the US' (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“5 reasons I'm still long Bitcoin: 1.The only asset no government can debase. 21M cap, enforced by code — not promises.”
A public thread restating the long at $63,490, arguing the selloff was forced sellers — miners covering costs, leverage unwinding — rather than broken fundamentals. It held: BTC dipped only −7.8% to the July low, reached $86,597 (+36.4%) and is +34.6% now. His read on why the market was falling was the right one.
𝕏 Post“5 reasons I'm still long Bitcoin” — @Scaramucci on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin can reclaim $70K by the end of July. I just think because it's burnt out and the sentiment is so negative that any incremental buying will lift it through $70K”
The most falsifiable call he made all year, and it failed. From $65,709 BTC never got near $70k before the deadline — the best it managed by 31 July was $66,521 (+1.2%), still 5% short — and it first fell −10.9% to $58,566. TheStreet itself wrote the epitaph nine days before the deadline: “July is nearly over. The $70,000 target has not been hit.” It is +30.1% today, but the call had a date on it and the date passed.
SourceAnthony Scaramucci unveils Bitcoin target for July (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“So, if the four-year cycle theory holds, Bitcoin doesn't recover until the early part of the fourth quarter of 2026, possibly into the first quarter of 2027,”
Said in conversation with Mike Novogratz at $61,670, with weekly RSI under 30. The bottom half of the read was nearly exact — BTC fell just −5.0% further, to $58,566 on 1 July, and turned. The timing half is the open question: he said no recovery before Q4, yet BTC had already run +40.4% off that day to $86,597 by 22 September and holds +38.6% at $85,466 — still roughly a third below the old high, so “recovered” is genuinely arguable. Q4 has now begun; logged open until it resolves the call.
SourceAnthony Scaramucci Remains A 'Long-Term Believer' In Bitcoin, Sees BTC Recovering By Q4 2026 Or Q1 2027 (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“This is a computer program that cannot be devalued.”
The pure S-curve thesis — Bitcoin adopted like Amazon or Microsoft, with the volatility that late adopters bring — argued at $78,133, near a local high. It is a decade-long claim, not a level: BTC fell −25.0% to $58,566 afterwards and has only lately climbed back above where he said it, to $86,597 (+10.8%) at best and $85,466 (+9.4%) now. Nothing here is disproven — but four months cannot prove a decade-long claim either. Open.
SourceAnthony Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Poised To Follow The S-Curve Of Adoption Like Amazon, Microsoft: 'Cannot Be Devalued' (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“I owned one Bitcoin before the rally. I owned one Bitcoin during the bear market. Same Bitcoin. Different feelings. The asset didn't change. The price did.”
Not a target — a hold instruction, posted at $72,920 with BTC down from $126k. Taking it meant sitting through another −19.7% to $58,566 before the recovery; you are now up +17.2% at $85,466 six months later, against a best of +18.8%. The advice has started to pay, but it carries no level or date to grade against — open.
𝕏 Post“The asset didn't change. The price did.” — @Scaramucci on X↗ x.com“Could it trade lower? Sure. Anything can happen. It's Bitcoin, but we're getting close to the bottom.”
On Scott Melker's podcast, with Fear & Greed at 5 and BTC at $70,987, he said buy it here and set the $1M by 2032 target. He gave himself the out — “could it trade lower? Sure” — and it did: BTC fell another −17.5% to $58,566 over the following three months. It has since recovered to $85,466 (+20.4%), so the purchase is well in the green; the bottom call was not, and that is what is being graded.
SourceAnthony Scaramucci Sets $1 Million Bitcoin Target By 2032, Explains Why He's Buying Now (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com结论是我们依据真实 CoinGecko 价格对他公开立场的解读，而非他本人的评分。每张卡片按出处自身的发布日期标注（X 帖子则按推文时间戳）——而不是某则报道被重新翻出的日期。任何时间跨度超出本图区间的内容（2026 年四季度、2032 年）一律记作仍未结束，绝不记作命中。近期的判定可能反转。
斯卡拉穆奇不是一个碰巧持有加密货币的媒体人——他是一位资产管理人，其基金正做多他几乎每周都在电视上谈论的东西。这种一致是诚实且已披露的，但它仍然是一份利益。
他是 SkyBridge 的创始人兼管理合伙人，该公司是在 SEC 注册的另类资产管理机构。其旗舰、规模 13 亿美元的 Opportunity Fund 约有 64% 配置于加密与数字资产——因此看多言论既是在评论自己的持仓，也是在评论客户的持仓。
这份持仓已经让他吃苦：该基金 2025 年四季度下跌 18%、2026 年一季度下跌 12.9%，连续两个亏损季度，并且在最近一次回购要约中仅受理了投资者提交份额的约 8%。请把他的乐观与这种压力放在一起掂量。
他创办并主持 SALT，一个会议与创投平台，其赞助商与演讲者在很大程度上正是他所评论的这个行业。他还说自己逾 70% 的个人净资产在比特币里——与散户持有者完全一致，也完全暴露于同一种偏见。
“It's going to grind higher because the sentiment is terrible”
24 Jul 2026 · 奏效的那一次判断“Bitcoin can reclaim $70K by the end of July.”
15 Jun 2026 · 没奏效的那一次“I've been humbled by markets. I could be wrong about Bitcoin.”
11 Jul 2026 · 他会大声说出的保留引文取自其本人的公开来源；这些是表达过的观点，不是投资建议。
There is no video library to link — Scaramucci hosts no channel of his own, and the SALT channel has been dormant for years. His output is other people's programmes plus his X account, which is exactly why every call above links to a dated page carrying the quoted words. The appearances charted here are The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast with Scott Melker (22 Mar, published 24 Mar), RiskReversal Media (17 May), a conversation with Mike Novogratz (10 Jun), All Things Markets (15 Jun), an interview with Phil Rose (11 Jul), CNBC (24 Jul and 18 Aug) and Coinage at the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium (3 Sep), alongside his own X posts of 11 Apr, 20 Jun and 16 Sep.
SkyBridge Capital 的创始人兼管理合伙人，高盛出身、哈佛法学院毕业，同时创办并主持 SALT 会议。在金融圈之外，他最为人知的是 2017 年那段十一天的白宫通讯联络主任任期。他是市场上最显眼的机构比特币多头之一。
他为 2032 年设定了 100 万美元的目标，并在 2026 年反复说比特币会「move back up over $100,000」，但没有给出日期。他还论证比特币可能在五年内达到黄金市值的约一半——大约 12 万亿美元，即每枚接近 50 万美元。这些时间跨度都超出上方图表区间，因此在这里没有任何一条被记作命中。
Mixed, and the record above says so: five of eleven dated 2026 calls played out, four are still open, and two went against him — a “close to the bottom” call in March that preceded another 17.5% drop, and a “$70K by the end of July” target that missed. He has also publicly conceded that his $150,000 target for 2025 was wrong.
他公开表示自己逾 70% 的净资产在比特币里。另外，SkyBridge 规模 13 亿美元的旗舰基金约有 64% 的组合配置于加密与数字资产。他个人持仓没有经审计的公开数字——请忽略任何具体金额。
斯卡拉穆奇以五年视角买入恐慌，并接受自己会太早。你的直觉有多接近——用 Trader Passport 真正量一量。
