@novogratz
Um sócio do Goldman que virou gestor macro e depois CEO de cripto — e um dos poucos grandes touros de Bitcoin que coloca publicamente um nível e uma data numa opinião e depois convive com ela. Seu 2026 é um estudo da diferença entre as duas coisas: onde ele citou um número acertou quase sempre, e onde descreveu um estado de ânimo quase nunca.
Em resumo. Mike Novogratz is founder, CEO and chairman of Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY), the crypto-and-AI-infrastructure firm he built after eleven years at Goldman Sachs and a run as a principal and macro-fund CIO at Fortress. He is a permanent-bull-with-caveats: his case for Bitcoin is a sovereign-debt case — a $39-40 trillion debt pile that in his view can only be inflated away — and it barely changes with price. What does change is his near-term read, and in 2026 that read has been unusually specific. In July he put a $60,000–$80,000 range on the rest of the year and said Bitcoin “probably holds $60,000”; it has, but price has since broken through the top of that range, peaking at $86,597. In late June he called the $59,000–$60,000 zone the level that mattered, four days before the actual low at $58,566. But in the same fortnight he told investors the market had “no energy” and “no new buyers” and to wait until March of next year — and Bitcoin promptly rallied 38.2%. In September his instinct that the CLARITY Act would reach the Senate floor was wrong within three days. Two weeks later, with Bitcoin near $84,000, he said $100,000 by year-end “will not surprise me”, the opposite lean to his April view. Three of the ten dated calls below played out, five are still open, and two went against him.
Novogratz entrou no Goldman Sachs em 1989, comandou negócios de renda fixa na Ásia e na América Latina e foi eleito sócio em 1998. Em 2002 foi para a Fortress Investment Group como principal e depois atuou como presidente e diretor de investimentos do Fortress Macro Fund. Em 2018 fundou a Galaxy Digital, hoje uma empresa listada na Nasdaq que oferece a instituições negociação, assessoria, gestão de ativos, staking, custódia e tokenização. É formado em economia por Princeton e tem fortuna estimada em $5.8 billion.
O ponto essencial sobre a Galaxy em 2026 é que ela não é mais apenas um negócio cripto. A empresa saiu completamente da mineração de Bitcoin e reconstruiu aqueles sites como data centers de IA e computação de alto desempenho, ancorados no campus Helios de 1.6 gigawatt no Texas, com clientes como a CoreWeave. Essa virada aconteceu num mercado cripto brutal: a Galaxy registrou prejuízo de $1.08 por ação no quarto trimestre de 2025 contra expectativa de $0.92 — a ação caiu 16.87% num dia — e em seguida um prejuízo líquido de $216 million no primeiro trimestre de 2026 com a queda dos ativos digitais, receita 22% menor, para cerca de $10 billion. Então, quando ele diz que está altista, fala de um livro que vem perdendo dinheiro, de uma cadeira em que a outra metade do negócio agora vende eletricidade para empresas de IA. Os dois fatos pertencem ao registro.
Sources: galaxy.com · x.com/novogratz · dated third-party coverage (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, Benzinga, Stocktwits, The Daily Hodl)
Macro de cima para baixo, dívida soberana primeiro. Novogratz enquadra o Bitcoin como um boletim da responsabilidade fiscal: déficits, a trajetória da dívida sobre o PIB, o dólar e o que o Fed é forçado a fazer diante disso. Dali desce para fluxos e encanamento de mercado — quem é o comprador marginal, se o dinheiro especulativo migrou para ações de IA ou apostas esportivas, o que o balanço da Strategy faz com a confiança — e só então para os níveis. De forma incomum para um gestor de fundos, ele diz os níveis em voz alta: uma faixa para o ano, uma zona de suporte que importa, um número que lhe diria que o suporte aguentou. Seu ponto forte é identificar uma zona sob pressão; o fraco é acertar a virada do sentimento, em que repetidamente esteve mais pessimista a poucos dias de uma mínima.
Structurally bullish on Bitcoin for debt-and-debasement reasons that do not move with price, and turning more constructive near term: his July base case was $60k–$80k, but by late September, with BTC above that ceiling, he said $100k by year-end would not surprise him.
Ten dated statements from a rolling 2026 sample — seven from dated third-party coverage, two from his own X account, one from his own podcast's clip — each re-fetched from its source and confirmed verbatim on that page before it was charted. The split below is the point of the dossier: when Novogratz named a number he was mostly right, and when he described the market's mood he was mostly wrong, sometimes within the same week. The 27 June and 24 June cards are three days apart and pull in opposite directions; both are here.
“I still like the chart. It will not surprise me if we're at $100K by year end.”
Said on All Things Markets, the podcast he co-hosts with Anthony Scaramucci, in the episode published on 26 September; the show's own account posted the clip two days later. It is a softer claim than a target (“will not surprise me”), but it names a level and a deadline, and it marks a turn. In April he said it was “not my prediction” that Bitcoin breaks $100,000 this year, and in July his base case topped out at $80,000. From $84,076 BTC has traded between $83,479 (−0.7%) and $86,490 (+2.9%) and sits at $84,009 (−0.1%) today, still needing +19% to reach $100k. The deadline is 31 December, after this chart ends, so it is logged open. The card is dated to the episode, not the clip; the episode discusses the 15 September Senate vote, so it was recorded after it.
𝕏 Post“It will not surprise me if we're at $100K by year end” — All Things Markets clip on X, posted 28 Sep 2026 (episode of 26 Sep 2026)↗ x.com“Clarity isn't dead!! Lots of negotiating over the weekend. My instinct is the bill makes it to the floor. It all depends on if we get the White House to move on ethics to see if we get a law.”
The CLARITY Act was the first item on his own list of what Bitcoin needed to reach $100k, so this was a market call as much as a political one — and it was falsifiable. It failed: the bill lost its procedural Senate vote on 15 September, three days later, short of the 60 needed. So the falsifiable half of the post was wrong inside three days — but the tape never punished it. From $77,204 BTC dipped to $75,590 (−2.1%), then ran to $86,597 (+12.2%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+8.8%) today. Wrong on the bill, right side of the price: logged open rather than against, because the chart does not support scoring it a loss. His own verdict the morning after: “Govt feels broken.”
𝕏 Post“Clarity isn't dead!!” — Mike Novogratz on X, 12 Sep 2026↗ x.com“It's the govts inability to deal with its spending addiction that keeps me bullish BTC even in a year where the energy in the crypto space is low.”
Posted on the July deficit print — $334bn in, $766bn out, a $432bn hole in one month — with Bitcoin flat on its back near the lows. He stayed long the thesis anyway, and it worked: from $63,409 BTC dipped only −0.9% to $62,844 before running +36.6% to $86,597, and it is +32.5% at $84,009 today. The cleanest bullish call in this sample.
SourceUS fiscal deficits keep Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz bullish on Bitcoin (The Daily Hodl, reporting his 13 Aug X post)↗ dailyhodl.com“I think Bitcoin probably holds $60,000. There's too many people who have bought into the Bitcoin story as its own store of value for it to go away”
His most precise call of the year: a base case of $60,000–$80,000 for the rest of 2026, with $100k requiring three things he named — the Clarity Act, Fed cuts and a reignited buyer base. The floor held. From $64,670 the lowest BTC has traded is $62,773 (−2.9%), comfortably above $60k. The ceiling did not hold: BTC first closed above $80,000 on 28 August, peaked at $86,597 (+33.9%), 8.2% through the top of his range, and trades at $84,009 (+29.9%) today, some 5.0% over the $80,000 top. The floor call is what is charted here and it held; the top of the range has broken, so the range as a whole was set too low. None of his three $100k conditions has been met and $100k has not come, though by 26 September he was saying it would not surprise him (see that card).
SourceBillionaire investor says Bitcoin could hit $100,000 only if these things happen (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ sg.finance.yahoo.com“Every young kid who used to buy Solana is buying Hynix or some memory company”
An observation about where speculative money had gone, not a price target — but it was a dated claim that Solana's marginal buyer had left, and charted against price it aged badly. From $76.31 SOL dipped just −5.8% to $71.89, then ran +60.0% to $122.08 and holds $118.17 (+54.9%) — outperforming the Bitcoin he was defending in the same interview. Logged went against on the evidence, with the caveat that he never put a number on SOL.
SourceBillionaire investor says Bitcoin could hit $100,000 only if these things happen (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ sg.finance.yahoo.com“Bessent came and piled on as a strong dollar guy. You know, strong dollar is weak Bitcoin.”
He explained the sell-off as a “MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence” compounded by a hawkish Fed and a Treasury Secretary suddenly talking the dollar up — with Strategy sitting on roughly $14bn of unrealised losses and traders, in his words, trying to “jam Bitcoin super down and explode him.” It is a diagnosis, not a target, so it is logged open. Worth noting what happened next: he said it at $59,495, two days before the low at $58,566 (−1.6%), after which BTC rallied +45.6% to $86,597 and now sits +41.2% higher.
SourceBillionaire investor reveals key reasons behind Bitcoin's decline (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“I wish I had compared the Alibaba chart and the Bitcoin chart before I bought it,”
On his podcast he called a hold of the $59,000–$60,000 area “stunningly important”, said a break would open the door to $45,000, and gave the market a tripwire for the following week: around $55,000 meant lower to come, near $62,000 meant the support had held. The tripwire fired bullish. From $60,022 the low was $58,566 (−2.4%) on 1 July — within touching distance of his zone and four days ahead of the actual bottom — then $62,554 printed on 4 July and BTC ran +44.3% to $86,597. His $45,000 never came. The even-odds bet he attached to it — $45k before $85k — has now resolved: BTC closed above $85,000 on 22 September without revisiting $45k.
SourceGalaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says a turn in Alibaba could signal Bitcoin has bottomed (Stocktwits / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“Right now, it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers”
Debating Anthony Scaramucci, he argued the bid had simply gone — and told long-term investors to wait until “March of next year before you scratch your head”. Six days later Bitcoin bottomed. From $62,662 it fell only −6.5% to $58,566 and then rallied +38.2% to $86,597, sitting +34.1% higher today — and it did it without the Fed pivot he said the debasement trade was waiting for. A dated, falsifiable read on sentiment that the tape refuted inside three months.
SourceBillionaire investor issues Bitcoin warning — why he's ‘worried’ about BTC's future (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“We actually need inflation”
The engine under every bullish thing he says: with US debt near $39.2 trillion, his view is that Washington cannot grow out of it and must quietly inflate it away — run 4% while promising 2% for a decade — with the risk being that expectations unanchor and the managed burn becomes a spiral. That is a multi-year macro thesis with no level and no deadline, so it is logged open. For the record, BTC is +26.7% since, from $66,293 to $84,009, having first fallen −11.7% to $58,566.
SourceVeteran investor reveals one way out of $40 trillion U.S. debt (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“It's not my prediction that we break [$100,000] this year”
Said on Galaxy's Q1 earnings call, the same day the firm reported a $216 million net loss. A rare bull publicly refusing a bullish number: he argued a move back over $100k needed Fed easing that “ugly inflation prints” from the war in Iran would prevent. So far he is right — from $77,367 the highest BTC has managed is $86,597 (+11.9%), and it is $84,009 (+8.6%) today, needing +19% in under three months to prove him wrong. But the call runs to year-end, past this chart, so it stays open rather than scored. Note the cost of the same view being early: BTC fell −24.3% to $58,566 in between. He has since softened it: on 26 September he said $100k by year-end would not surprise him (charted separately).
SourceBitcoin won't crack $100K this year, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.comOutcomes are our read of his stated bias against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring. Each card is dated by when the words were actually said — the source's own publication date, or the tweet's timestamp, or a date the page itself states (the 28 April card is a Q1 earnings call the article names explicitly; the 26 September card is dated to the podcast episode, not the clip posted two days later). Anything whose horizon runs past this chart window is logged still open, never as a win. Near-term marks can flip.
Novogratz não é um comentarista com carteira — é fundador, CEO, presidente do conselho e a maior face pública de uma empresa listada na Nasdaq cuja receita depende da atividade cripto e, cada vez mais, da energia para IA. Sua conta no X carrega um selo formal de afiliação à Galaxy. Tudo o que ele diz é dito dessa cadeira.
Ele fundou, dirige e preside a empresa. A Galaxy negocia, empresta, gere ativos, faz staking e custódia para instituições — logo, um mercado cripto mais animado é diretamente um trimestre melhor. A firma perdeu $216m no primeiro trimestre de 2026 com receita 22% menor, para cerca de $10bn, depois de um resultado abaixo do esperado no quarto trimestre de 2025 que derrubou a ação 16.87% em um pregão.
A Galaxy saiu completamente da mineração de Bitcoin e converteu aqueles sites em data centers de IA e computação de alto desempenho — o campus Helios de 1.6GW no Texas, clientes como a CoreWeave, um segundo terreno texano de 500 acres e um acordo de $75m pelo nome de um estádio. Metade do negócio dele agora lucra com o mesmo boom de IA que ele culpa por drenar os compradores de cripto, o que vale ter em mente quando ele explica para onde foi o dinheiro especulativo.
Sua fortuna é estimada em $5.8 billion, em boa parte ligada à Galaxy e a ativos digitais, e ele faz lobby público por legislação cripto — a CLARITY Act da chamada acima é uma lei da qual a própria empresa dele se beneficiaria. Alinhado com os detentores e abertamente interessado.
“I think Bitcoin probably holds $60,000.”
20 Jul 2026 · a chamada que deu certo“Right now, it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers”
24 Jun 2026 · seis dias antes da mínima“Govt feels broken. 18 months of work between our industry, Democrats, and Republicans, and Clarity falls apart on the 5-yard line,”
16 Sep 2026 · depois que o próprio instinto dele falhouCitações retiradas das próprias fontes públicas; são opiniões declaradas, não recomendações.
There is no video library to link — Novogratz hosts no YouTube channel of his own, and Galaxy's is corporate. His market talk lives in other people's programmes and on X, which is exactly why every call above links to a dated page carrying the quoted words. The appearances charted here are the SALT and All-In Markets podcasts with Anthony Scaramucci (13–24 Jun), his own All Things Markets episode with Scaramucci (27 Jun), a further podcast recap (29 Jun), a July interview (20 Jul), Galaxy's Q1 earnings call (28 Apr), his own X posts of 13 Aug and 12 Sep, and the 26 Sep All Things Markets episode.
Fundador, CEO e presidente do conselho da Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY). Passou onze anos no Goldman Sachs, tornando-se sócio em 1998, depois foi para a Fortress Investment Group como principal e CIO de fundo macro, e em 2018 fundou a Galaxy. É formado em economia por Princeton, tem fortuna estimada em US$ 5,8 bilhões e é um dos touros institucionais de Bitcoin mais citados do mercado.
His stated 2026 base case, given in July, was a $60,000–$80,000 range for the rest of the year; Bitcoin has since broken above the top of it. He said in April that it is “not my prediction” that Bitcoin breaks $100,000 this year, and named three conditions for six figures: the CLARITY Act passing, the Fed cutting rates, and a new buyer base. None has happened, but on 26 September he said $100,000 by year-end “will not surprise me”. Longer term he argues US debt can only be inflated away, which is his structural bull case.
Mixed, and the chart above says so: three of ten dated 2026 calls played out, five are still open and two went against him. He named the $59k–$60k bottom zone four days before the low and his $60,000 floor has held — but he also told investors in late June there were “no new buyers” and to wait until March 2027, six days before a 38.2% rally, and his September instinct that the CLARITY Act would reach the Senate floor failed within three days.
Ele é executivo de fundo e de empresa, não um consultor licenciado, e a receita da firma dele depende do mercado que ele comenta — a Galaxy negocia, empresta e gere cripto para instituições, e ele faz lobby público por legislação cripto. O histórico aqui é genuinamente misto. Trate as opiniões dele como uma opinião documentada, datada e interessada — nunca opere com elas às cegas.
Novogratz trabalha de cima para baixo a partir da dívida soberana, depois nomeia uma faixa e vive dentro dela. Quão perto está o seu instinto — meça de verdade com um Trader Passport.
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Análise informativa e educativa baseada estritamente em materiais publicamente disponíveis (cobertura datada de terceiros e as suas próprias publicações públicas no X, com ligação em cada chamada). Não constitui aconselhamento financeiro ou de investimento. Os números são aproximados e mudam constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Mike? Envie uma correção →
Perfis verificados · Fontes citadas acima · Metodologia de avaliação · Atualizado 7 October 2026
