@MarkYusko
O gestor de endowment que fala em valor justo, não em alvos de preço. Yusko passa o bitcoin por um modelo de valor de rede, compra quando o modelo diz que está barato e coloca datas no ciclo — o que o torna invulgarmente verificável e, por consequência, torna verificáveis também os erros.
Em resumo. Mark Yusko is the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and before that ran the endowments at Notre Dame and UNC Chapel Hill. In crypto he is a macro and valuation voice rather than a chartist: he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model (run by analyst Tim Peterson) that puts Bitcoin's fair value near $105,000, and he accumulates whenever price sits below it. He is also a four-year-cycle believer to the day, naming 5 October 2026 as the cycle's turn — a date that came and went with no new low. That framework called the depth of this year's low almost exactly — and got the timing of it badly wrong, twice.
Yusko (n. 1963, criado em Seattle) tem um BS por Notre Dame e um MBA pela Universidade de Chicago. Entrou no gabinete de investimentos de Notre Dame como assistant investment officer em outubro de 1993 e foi o seu senior investment director até 1998; depois fundou e dirigiu a UNC Management Company, o gabinete de investimentos do endowment da Universidade da Carolina do Norte em Chapel Hill, de 1998 a 2004. A ambos levou o «modelo endowment», carregado de alternativos. Em 2004 fundou a Morgan Creek Capital Management e, em 2018, a Morgan Creek Digital, que se associou à Bitwise para lançar um Digital Asset Index Fund institucional. Uma entrevista de 2026 descreveu o braço digital como gerindo $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
O histórico não é uniformemente bom, e o dossiê di-lo: o Endowment Fund, a sua parceria com a Salient Partners, cresceu até cerca de $3.5 billion antes de problemas de desempenho levarem à sua destituição em janeiro de 2013. Em cripto a convicção é antiga — o seu nome no X, «Two Point One Quadrillion», é o número de satoshis existentes — tal como o seu número de longo prazo: numa entrevista a 15 de fevereiro de 2026 disse estar «pretty comfortable» com o bitcoin a chegar a $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029. Essa mesma entrevista contém a chamada que este dossiê não pode plotar mas não vai esconder: colocou o fundo deste ciclo em $58,000–$63,000, a chegar por volta de 30 de setembro–1 de outubro de 2026. O nível foi quase perfeito — o mínimo do bitcoin até agora é $58,566 — mas imprimiu a 1 de julho, três meses antes, e nos meses intermédios ele andou a dizer que os fundos já tinham sido feitos.
Sources: morgancreekcap.com · Bitcoin Magazine · Yahoo Finance / Benzinga / Stocktwits · Coinage · NewsBTC · Cointelegraph
Macro pautada por avaliação, no relógio do endowment. Yusko não traça linhas de tendência. Ele pergunta quanto vale uma rede — a lei de Metcalfe aplicada aos utilizadores e transações do bitcoin, via modelo de Tim Peterson — e compra semanalmente quando o preço está abaixo desse número, sem tentar acertar o dia. Em volta há uma leitura top-down de liquidez, desvalorização do fiat, posicionamento no mercado de futuros e o ciclo de halving de quatro anos, que ele trata como um calendário com precisão de 364 dias a partir do pico anterior. A força é que ele continua a comprar numa queda que assusta todos os outros. A fraqueza é o mesmo traço: um modelo que diz «barato» a $70,000 também diz «barato» a $60,000, e as suas previsões de timing do ciclo têm sido repetidamente prematuras.
Structurally very bullish on Bitcoin (fair value $105,000 against a price in the $80,000s, a $600–700k 2029 target). He spent early September calling the tape “bear market action” and pointing at a 5 October low, then turned: on 22 September he said the uptrend to $125,000 and $250,000 had begun, and on 2 October he posted “Looking Like Uptober”. Bearish on governance tokens, including ETH and SOL.
Dated statements Yusko made on podcasts and video interviews, written up verbatim by third-party press, charted against real price. He is a valuation and cycle voice, so the calls are directional and dated rather than tight levels — we judged each on what Bitcoin (or Solana) actually did next. The 2026 sample below is unflattering in the middle: he called the lows in on 11 March and again on 18 May, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July. What he did right is arguably more useful — he was buying weekly the whole way down, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls both worked. His 6 September warning — a possible drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low — did not. His out-of-window 15 February call had the bottom level almost exactly right and the date three months late; it is on the record above, not on this chart, because it predates the price window.
“Looking Like Uptober… 🧡🚀”
Three days before his own 5 October cycle-low date, he quote-posted Morgan Creek's Digital Currents episode — “‘Uptober’ or head fake?” — and answered it: Uptober. A day earlier he had hedged the same idea (“when everyone starts taking about something, it usually doesn’t happen”). Posted at 20:34 UTC, so the chart's 2 October point of $84,842 is that day's midnight price; the next point, $84,506, was barely different. Since then BTC has topped at $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October and sits at $84,009 (−1.0%). Five days in — open.
𝕏 Post“Looking Like Uptober…” — @MarkYusko on X↗ x.com“So, I think this will be not like straight up to 125 and straight up to 250, but I do think the durability of the trend will be better.”
Talking to Coinage's Zack Guzman (uploaded 22 September), he said Bitcoin had moved from distribution into accumulation and that the path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun — slowly, not vertically. It is a flip from his 6 September “not out of the woods” call, made before his own 5 October date. He made it on the best close of the whole rebound: $86,597, which BTC has not bettered since. Low since $83,479 (−3.6%), now $84,009 (−3.0%). A long-horizon thesis two weeks old — open.
SourceWhy the Bitcoin Rally to $250K Has Begun: Hedge Fund Manager Mark Yusko — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
On Bitcoin Magazine TV, with BTC at $75,590, he put fair value at $105,000 on Metcalfe's law and said the gap made it a buy. It worked: BTC has not closed lower since, ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+11.1%). He called it on the exact low of the September dip.
SourceBitcoin Is On Sale, Says Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko — Bitcoin Magazine↗ bitcoinmagazine.com“We sold 90% of it.”
He revealed he had exited almost all of a Solana position he called the best investment of his life — roughly a 1,000x on Morgan Creek's stake in Multicoin's first fund — on governance grounds, not price. A month later the exit is offside: from $103 SOL dipped to $97 (−6.1%), then ran to $122 (+18.3%) and sits at $118 (+14.5%). Still far too early to score a multi-year exit made on governance grounds — open.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
With BTC at $79,822 he called the tape “super, super overbought”, said the squeeze was “still bear market action”, put the cycle low on 5 October (364 days after the peak) and warned price could fall to about $60,000 first. His date has now passed and the drop never came. The worst close was $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September; BTC then ran to $86,597 (+8.5%), closed $86,490 on 5 October itself and sits at $84,009 (+5.2%). By 2 October he was posting “Looking Like Uptober” himself — went against.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
A sua melhor chamada do ano, e fê-la sem nomear um nível. A falar com a Cointelegraph dez dias após o mínimo do bitcoin em $58,566, com o BTC em $64,111, disse que a Morgan Creek comprava semanalmente desde fevereiro contra um valor justo de $105,000–$108,000 e continuaria até outubro. O BTC subiu depois a $86,597 (+35.1%) e está em $84,009 (+31.0%), com uma queda máxima de apenas −2.9% pelo caminho.
SourceSpaceX Is ‘The Equivalent Of Dogecoin’ And Bitcoin Is The One That’s Actually Cheap — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The little flows are real. The big flows usually are not.”
Reporting on his 14 May interview with Scott Melker, the piece says he believed Bitcoin had already bottomed near the low-$60,000 range and dismissed a $630M ETF outflow day as hedge-fund basis trades rather than real selling. The flows read was defensible; the bottom call was not. From $77,429 BTC fell −24.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — through the floor he had just called — and only got back above his call price in September, peaking at $86,597 (+11.8%); now $84,009 (+8.5%).
SourceMark Yusko Says Look Past Bitcoin ETF Outflows: ‘Bear Markets Are Over’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“If CLARITY does pass, we probably extend the bear market longer.”
He called the CLARITY Act “a horrible bill” written by big banks and tied the cycle to it: passage extends the bear market, failure pulls the break into “crypto spring” forward from September–October. The bill failed its Senate cloture vote 49–50 on 15 September, so his stated trigger never fired — and price did neither thing cleanly. From $78,275 BTC ran to $82,018 (+4.8%) on 11 May, collapsed −25.2% to $58,566, and after the vote recovered to $86,597 (+10.6%); now $84,009 (+7.3%). Unresolved rather than right — open.
Source‘Horrible Bill’: Yusko Says CLARITY Act Could Extend Crypto Bear Market — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
Said on 11 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. He told Coinage the selling was done and expected a range between the low $60,000s and low $80,000s through the summer. The range was roughly right; the floor was not. From the anchor Bitcoin lost −16.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — below the bottom of his band — before recovering to $84,009 (+20.0%). Anyone who read “the lows are in” as permission to stop being careful wore the whole drawdown.
SourceThe Worst of Bitcoin’s Selloff May Be Over, Says Mark Yusko — Coinage↗ coinage.mediaOutcomes are our read of his stated view against real price, not his own scoring. Every call links the page we fetched, and every quote was re-checked against that page on 20 September 2026; the 22 September and 2 October calls were checked on 7 October 2026. Those two are days old — near-term marks can flip.
Yusko não vende sinais nem um curso. Ele gere uma firma, e o incentivo que importa conhecer é o simples: é um alocador a falar do próprio livro na televisão, com um fundo e um alvo de longo prazo por trás.
A sua firma, fundada em 2004 — mandatos discricionários e de consultoria geridos pelo modelo endowment. O otimismo público sobre bitcoin é inseparável de um negócio que aloca a ele.
O braço de ativos digitais de 2018, que se associou à Bitwise num fundo de índice institucional; uma entrevista de 2026 colocou-o em $3.2 billion of assets under advisement.
Diz que cerca de metade do seu património está em bitcoin e ativos ligados ao bitcoin, contra os «five, eight, or ten percent» que recomenda aos outros — uma revelação invulgarmente franca e uma razão para descontar a intensidade do argumento altista.
Chama aos tokens de governança sem direito a taxas — nomeando Ethereum e Uniswap ao lado da Solana — «kind of scammy». Leia o enquadramento bitcoin-versus-altcoins dele sabendo onde está a sua exposição.
“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
16 Sep 2026 · a regra de avaliação numa linha“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
11 Jul 2026 · como a executa na prática“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
11 Mar 2026 · a chamada que custou, quatro meses cedo demais“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
6 Sep 2026 · ainda cauteloso a caminho da sua data de 5 de outubroCitações retiradas das próprias fontes públicas; são opiniões declaradas, não recomendações.
Yusko não mantém nada de seu — sem canal, sem newsletter, sem grupo pago. Ele aparece nos programas dos outros, e foi aí que cada chamada acima foi feita. Estes são os vídeos primários por trás do dossiê, verificados por título e data de publicação:
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Path to $250K Already Started: Mark YuskoCoinage — the “durability of the trend” interview behind the 22 September call.22 Sep 2026
Mark Yusko: Bitcoin's Rise is Programmed - The Path from Speculation to Global MoneyBitcoin Magazine TV — a entrevista do «it's on sale» plotada acima.16 Sep 2026
Why Mark Yusko Is Buying Bitcoin Before OctoberCointelegraph — a entrevista da acumulação semanal por trás da chamada de 11 de julho.10 Jul 2026
Donald Trump Is About To Crash Bitcoin Again | Mark Yusko's 2026 PredictionsAltcoin Daily — o fundo de $58,000–$63,000 e o alvo de $600–700k para 2029, mesmo fora da janela do gráfico.8 Feb 2026
Bitcoin ETF Manipulation, AI Bubble & 2026 Predictions | Mark YuskoThe Bureau Podcast — o enquadramento da supressão via futuros e da bolha de IA que ele repete o ano inteiro.7 Jan 2026Mark W. Yusko (n. 1963) é fundador, CEO e diretor de investimentos da Morgan Creek Capital Management, que criou em 2004. Antes disso geriu o endowment da Universidade da Carolina do Norte em Chapel Hill à frente da UNC Management Company (1998–2004) e foi senior investment director no gabinete de investimentos de Notre Dame (1993–1998). Fundou a Morgan Creek Digital em 2018 e é um dos altistas institucionais de bitcoin mais antigos.
Two numbers, both dated and sourced on this page. Near term he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model run by analyst Tim Peterson that put Bitcoin's fair value around $105,000 as of 16 September 2026 — against a market price near $75,000. On 22 September he told Coinage the slow path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun. Long term, in a 15 February 2026 interview, he said Bitcoin reaches $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029.
Mixed, and the chart above shows both sides. He called the bottom in on 11 March and again on 18 May 2026, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July — his two red marks. But he was buying weekly through the whole decline, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls are up by roughly a third and by more than a tenth. His 6 September call for a drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low also missed — the date passed with Bitcoin in the $80,000s. His February call had the bottom level ($58,000–$63,000) nearly exact while missing the date by three months.
Avaliação primeiro, e devagar. Estima quanto vale a rede do bitcoin usando a lei de Metcalfe, compra semanalmente sempre que o preço negocia abaixo desse valor justo em vez de tentar cronometrar um fundo, e sobrepõe um ciclo de halving de quatro anos que data com precisão — 364 dias após o pico anterior, o que coloca a virada deste ciclo a 5 de outubro de 2026. Evita alavancagem e níveis de curto prazo por completo, e desdenha tokens de governança sem direito às taxas da rede.
Yusko compra um número, não um gráfico: valor justo primeiro, compras semanais, nenhuma tentativa de apanhar o mínimo exato. Quão perto está o teu instinto — mede-o a sério com um Trader Passport.
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Análise informativa e educativa baseada estritamente em materiais publicamente disponíveis (cobertura datada de terceiros sobre as entrevistas dele, ligada em cada chamada). Não é aconselhamento financeiro ou de investimento. Os números são aproximados e mudam constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Mark? Envie uma correção →
Perfis verificados · Fontes citadas acima · Metodologia de avaliação · Atualizado 7 October 2026
