@ki_young_ju
The on-chain analyst who runs the data terminal half the market quotes — and who changes his mind in public, loudly, with a timestamp. Inside thirteen weeks in 2026 he called an 18-month bear market, told holders relief was coming, then declared the bear cycle over. The relief call paid, the bear call has since gone against him, and the all-clear is still running. He is worth tracking anyway, because he leaves the whole record standing — including the parts that make him look bad.
Em resumo. Ki Young Ju cofundou a CryptoQuant em 2019 e a transformou num dos provedores de dados on-chain mais citados do setor. Sua análise pública gira em torno de uma ideia: o Realized Cap — quanto dinheiro real de fato entrou no Bitcoin — medido contra a capitalização de mercado para separar um mercado de alta de um de baixa. Essa lente o fez chegar cedo à Terra-Luna e à FTX. Ela também o levou a se desdizer repetidas vezes e em público, sobretudo em 2025, quando declarou encerrado o ciclo de alta, pediu desculpas sete semanas depois e viu o Bitcoin subir a uma nova máxima. O mesmo padrão reaparece em 2026: em 29 de maio, mercado de baixa até 2027; em 25 de agosto, «The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.». Ele não crava níveis — ele crava regimes de mercado, e os regimes viram.
Nascido em 1992 e formado na Pohang University of Science and Technology, Ki trabalhou como engenheiro de software antes de fundar em 2018 o grupo coreano de pesquisa em blockchain Planet B e de cofundar a CryptoQuant com colegas de universidade em abril de 2019. A empresa vende dados on-chain e de fluxo de corretoras a fundos e traders — o jornal sul-coreano Chosun Daily a chamou de «Bloomberg das criptomoedas» — e em julho de 2022 assinou como fornecedora de dados da CME Group. A reputação da CryptoQuant foi construída sobre dois alertas antecipados: fluxos incomuns de Bitcoin antes do colapso da Terra-Luna em maio de 2022 e, mais tarde, sinais em torno da FTX.
Seu método público é deliberadamente estreito. O Realized Cap trata moedas que entram numa carteira como compra e moedas que saem como venda, gerando uma estimativa do capital efetivamente aplicado em Bitcoin; comparar isso com a capitalização de mercado diz a ele se dinheiro novo está movendo o preço. Quando entradas grandes não levantam o preço, ele chama de mercado de baixa. Quando entradas pequenas o levantam muito, chama de alta. É um arcabouço limpo, e produz leituras de regime bastante confiantes.
Ele também produz viradas, e Ki não as esconde. Em 17 de março de 2025 ele postou «#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action», ampliou isso num longo thread sobre Realized Cap em 5 de abril e então, em 9 de maio de 2025, escreveu: «Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… I apologize for the incorrect prediction.» O Bitcoin foi a uma nova máxima histórica em outubro — a imprensa coloca o pico perto de US$ 126 mil. Esse erro fica fora da janela de preços traçada abaixo, mas pertence ao registro; e as declarações de 2026 mostram o mesmo reflexo: em 1 de fevereiro de 2026 ele escreveu que «this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation», em 29 de maio esticou o mercado de baixa até o início de 2027 e, em 21–25 de agosto, já havia cravado o fundo e o fim do ciclo de baixa. Leia-o como uma opinião bem instrumentada que se atualiza rápido — não como uma previsão pela qual dá para cobrá-lo.
Sources: x.com/ki_young_ju · cryptoquant.com · Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com News coverage
Regimes on-chain, não níveis de preço. Ki quase nunca publica um alvo. Publica um estado de mercado — alta, baixa, lateral, fundo formado — derivado do Realized Cap contra a capitalização de mercado, do lucro/prejuízo dos detentores de curto prazo, do Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator (construído com MVRV, NUPL e SOPR contra suas médias de 365 dias) e dos dados de fluxo de corretoras e ETFs. A força é que são afirmações falsificáveis, datadas e ancoradas em dados reais, não em intuição. A fraqueza é o timing: um sinal de regime pode estar estruturalmente certo e ainda assim vir seis semanas cedo ou tarde — e o próprio histórico dele mostra que vira a leitura de regime em doze semanas assim que os dados viram.
Bullish — he called the bottom on 21 August and declared the bear cycle over on 25 August, and has pressed further since: on 21 September he pointed to BTC reclaiming its 365-day average at $83K as the end-of-bear line, the next day posted “Bitcoin bull run just started, but no one cares.”, and on 23 September published the analysts' STRONG BUY consensus for Ethereum. He has also tempered the upside — a 3–5x cycle, not another 10x parabola. It is all a reversal of the bear-into-2027 stance he held in May, so treat the bias as live and revisable rather than settled.
Twelve dated, in-window statements — eleven of them his own X posts, one a quote confirmed on Bitcoin.com News — charted against real price. He is a regime caller, so we judge each one on what price actually did next rather than on a level being hit. The sample is deliberately unflattering in places: it opens with an on-chain all-clear posted 37% above the summer low. For the record beyond this chart window, his headline 2025 call — “#Bitcoin bull cycle is over”, March 2025 — was wrong enough that he publicly apologised for it seven weeks later.
“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.”
An on-chain all-clear — not a target, but a published read that forced selling had stopped. It went out at $80,482, and what came next was the opposite of relief: BTC fell −27.2% to $58,566 by 1 July. Until 22 September no close since had been even 1% above it; that day BTC reached $86,597 (+7.6%), and it is +5.4% today. Four months mostly underwater after an all-clear is still a miss. The indicator was doing what it says on the tin; as a signal of what came next it failed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
The mechanism — profit-taking cascades drag investor PnL for ~18 months — was right for five weeks: BTC fell −20.5% from $73,652 to the $58,566 low. Then it wasn't. He abandoned the thesis himself on 25 August, roughly five months before his own deadline, and on 21 September described BTC's reclaim of its 365-day average as the line everyone watches for the end of the bear. BTC has since closed as high as $86,597 (+17.6%) and is +15.1% today. Early 2027 has not arrived, but the caller has withdrawn the call and price has gone the other way, so we now log it against — changed from open on 4 October.
𝕏 Post“…the bear market could last until early 2027.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways.”
In a long thread telling @saylor to pause buying, he argued Strategy's bid was “more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst” and that weak hands had not been flushed. From $62,662 the flush never came: the deepest close after it was −6.5%, and BTC then ran +38.2% to $86,597. It is +35.3% today. The recovery he said needed a reset happened without one.
𝕏 Post“The market may need a proper reset…” — @ki_young_ju on Strategy's BTC buying↗ x.com“If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.”
Timing this well is rare: $58,566 is the lowest daily close in the entire window, and BTC has not closed below it since — +44.8% to today, +47.9% at the high. But read the call, not the chart. It is conditional on Bitcoin absorbing $1T+ in realized cap, we have seen no evidence that it has, and $84,793 is not a parabola. On 22 September he narrowed it himself, saying he expects this cycle to deliver “3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally”. Structurally “still early, not invalidated” — so, open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
A soft call with a hard shape: relief is coming, but not yet. Both halves landed. From $63,193 the deepest close after was only −1.4%, and the relief arrived well inside “the next few months” — BTC has since run +37.0% to $86,597 and is +34.2% today. Note he framed it as a bear-market bounce, not a trend change; the trend change is what he claimed six weeks later.
SourceCryptoquant CEO Tells Bitcoin Holders to “Hang in There” — Bitcoin.com News↗ news.bitcoin.com“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.”
Called into strength at $73,021 — the risky way to call a bottom — and it has held: not one daily close below that price since, +18.6% at the high and +16.1% today. He hedged with “might see a dip”; the deepest close since was $75,590, still above his call. The obvious caveat is that this is the same analyst who, twelve weeks earlier, put the bear market's end in 2027.
𝕏 Post“Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.”
Four words, posted at $78,974 when CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time since early October. Price dipped −4.3% to $75,590 by 16 September, then broke out: +9.7% at the $86,597 high on 22 September, +7.4% today. On 21 September he posted that BTC had reclaimed its 365-day average at $83K — the line he called the one everyone watches for the end of the bear. Encouraging, but a bear cycle is not proven over in six weeks, and BTC is still well below its 2025 peak — this is open.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.”
Two days after declaring the bear cycle over, he put a shape on what comes next: the top of this cycle gets made by non-US institutional flows, with Korea — no spot ETF, no foreign products for retail, companies locked out of exchanges — as the example of the demand still sitting on the sidelines. It went out at $79,018. Since then the low is $75,590 (−4.3%), the high $86,597 (+9.6%), and BTC is +7.3% today. Nothing in five weeks of price tests a claim about where a cycle peak originates, so it is logged open — but note the assumption underneath it: that this bull cycle has a peak still ahead of it.
𝕏 Post“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY”
Four words and a chart. Read it precisely: he is publishing the analyst-sentiment gauge, not his own target — but it is a bullish signal posted under his name. From $79,093 it cost money first, −4.4% to $75,590 on 16 September, then paid: +9.5% to the $86,597 high on 22 September and +7.2% today. A buy signal that is up within four weeks has done its job, so we now log it played out — changed from open on 4 October. Whether the regime behind it holds is what his 25 August call is for.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“BTC reclaimed the 365MA at $83K and is sitting above $84K. That's the line everyone's been watching for the end of the bear. If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.”
A level and a condition: the 365-day moving average at $83K, and if it holds, FOMO follows. Posted at 09:36 UTC, when by his own account BTC was already above $84K; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $81,169, so read the +4.5% to today with that head start in mind. The line has held: the lowest daily close since is $83,479. The FOMO is less clear — BTC closed at $86,597 (+6.7%) the next day and has drifted sideways below it since, at $84,793 today. Held, not yet chased: open.
𝕏 Post“If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.”
His most specific cycle call yet, in a long post arguing that institutional ownership now damps both extremes: a 3–5x bull cycle instead of a 10x+ parabola, and a milder bear market after it. The post gives no base price and no date for the 3–5x, so there is no level to grade yet. It went out on the day of the window's highest close, $86,597; BTC has since closed as low as $83,479 (−3.6%) and is −2.1% today. A claim about the shape of a multi-year cycle cannot be settled in twelve days — open. It also narrows his 1 July talk of “another parabolic bull run”.
𝕏 Post“3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY”
The same CryptoQuant analyst-consensus gauge as his 8 September Bitcoin post, this time for Ethereum — a published sentiment reading, not his own target, but posted under his name. It went out at 08:44 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $2,753, which has turned out to be ETH's highest close since. The low is $2,668 (−3.1%) and ETH is −2.2% today. Eleven days in, it has not paid — open.
𝕏 Post“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the linked X post or article. Fresh calls can flip as the cycle resolves — the newest call here, 23 September, has eleven days of data behind it and is logged open for exactly that reason.
Os incentivos dele são incomumente legíveis: ele vende dados, não sinais. Isso elimina o problema do shilling de tokens, mas cria outro — o produto da CryptoQuant é análise on-chain, e os posts públicos dele são a vitrine disso.
O negócio é um terminal de dados pago — análise on-chain e de fluxo de corretoras vendida a fundos, mesas e investidores de varejo em planos escalonados. A análise gratuita dele no X é o funil de marketing disso, o que é um alinhamento mais limpo do que grupos pagos, mas ainda é um alinhamento.
A CryptoQuant fornece dados on-chain comercialmente, incluindo um acordo de fornecimento com a CME Group assinado em julho de 2022. A distribuição institucional recompensa ser citado, e isso favorece afirmações fortes e citáveis.
O ganho dele está na empresa que cofundou, não numa carteira de operações que ele publique. Ele não mantém serviço de sinais nem promove tokens — então, quando vira a leitura de regime, não há renovação de assinatura em jogo.
“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
29 May 2026 · o relógio de baixa que ele depois abandonou“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
10 Jul 2026 · a que deu certo, e antes da hora“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.”
09 May 2025 · a retratação pública — fora desta janela, no registro mesmo assimCitações retiradas das suas próprias fontes públicas; opiniões declaradas, não recomendações.
Não há videoteca para linkar. Ki não publica podcast nem mantém canal próprio — sua produção pública são posts no X e as notas de research da CryptoQuant; todo o resto são entrevistas de terceiros. É exatamente por isso que cada declaração acima é uma citação com data e link, e não um clipe.
Cofundador e CEO da CryptoQuant, empresa sul-coreana de dados on-chain fundada em 2019 que vende análise de blockchain e de fluxo de corretoras a fundos e traders. É um dos analistas on-chain mais citados do setor e publica leituras do mercado de Bitcoin para cerca de 434 mil seguidores no X.
Não é publicamente verificado. Sua riqueza está ligada à participação na CryptoQuant, uma empresa privada que não divulga números financeiros. Ignore qualquer cifra específica que você vir citada — nenhuma é confirmada.
Yes, and he says so himself. In March 2025 he declared the bull cycle over; on 9 May 2025 he posted “Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong” and apologised. Bitcoin then made a new all-time high. In 2026 he called a bear market lasting into early 2027 on 29 May, then declared the bear cycle over on 25 August. Of the twelve dated 2026 calls charted above, three played out, six are still open and three went against him.
O Realized Cap — uma estimativa on-chain de quanto capital real entrou no Bitcoin — comparado à capitalização de mercado, mais o lucro/prejuízo dos detentores de curto prazo, os fluxos de corretoras e ETFs e o Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator da CryptoQuant. Ele identifica regimes de mercado (alta, baixa, fundo formado) em vez de níveis ou alvos de preço.
Ki muda de ideia quando os dados mudam, e assume o custo reputacional em público. O quanto seu instinto se parece com isso — meça de verdade com um Trader Passport.
De um jeito ou de outro, o único teste que resolve isso é o seu próprio histórico. Opere com dados de mercado ao vivo — sem arriscar capital — num torneio gratuito da BuyCrypt com prêmios de verdade.
Análise informativa e educacional baseada estritamente em materiais públicos — os próprios posts datados dele no X e coberturas datadas de terceiros, vinculados em cada declaração. Não é recomendação financeira ou de investimento. Os números são aproximados e mudam constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Ki? Envie uma correção →
Perfis verificados · Fontes citadas acima · Metodologia de avaliação · Atualizado 4 October 2026
