@crypto_birb
Um analista técnico polonês com cerca de 712K seguidores no X que opera Bitcoin pelo ciclo de quatro anos, pela tendência de 200 dias e pelo calendário. Em julho de 2025 disse que estava saindo das criptomoedas antes de um mercado de baixa em 2026; em agosto de 2026 escreveu que “o mercado de baixa acabou”. Esta página verifica os níveis que ele apontou desde então.
Em resumo. Crypto Birb is Adrian Zduńczyk, a chartered market technician (CMT) from Poland and the founder of The Birb Nest. His posts on X (about 712K followers) mix Bitcoin chart levels with cycle and seasonality statistics. On this page: seven dated Bitcoin calls from 24 August to 12 October 2026. One played out — “the bear market is over” — and six are still open, including his 30 September call that Bitcoin can reach $100k–$122k before 2026 ends. None has gone against him yet, but all seven are recent, so the sample is short.
Adrian Zduńczyk criou o nome e a marca “Crypto Birb”, segundo o perfil do mpost.io, que o descreve como analista de mercado e fundador e CEO da The Birb Nest. A conta no X (@crypto_birb, nome de exibição “₿IRB”) foi aberta em agosto de 2017 e tem mais de 123,000 publicações.
Em 9 de julho de 2025 ele explicou publicamente que estava saindo das criptomoedas: “Os topos de ciclo sempre ocorreram em anos pós-eleitorais nos EUA”, “2026 é um ano de eleições de meio de mandato” e “Minha opinião: topo em julho ou no fim de outubro/início de novembro.” Ele disse que “buscaria voltar às criptomoedas no Q4 2026 ou no início de 2027”. Essa publicação está fora da janela de preços desta página, por isso não aparece no gráfico, mas o esboço se confirmou: o Bitcoin atingiu o pico em outubro de 2025 e, nos nossos dados, chegou ao fundo em $58,566 em 1 de julho de 2026.
O método dele é a análise técnica clássica — alvos de padrões, suporte e resistência, a tendência de 200 dias e cruzamentos dourados — combinada com tabelas de sazonalidade (“Setembros de anos de meio de mandato nunca fecharam no verde. Até hoje.”). Muitas publicações terminam com uma pergunta aos seguidores e um explícito “Não faço absolutamente nenhuma ideia”, então várias previsões nesta página são cenários, não alvos únicos.
Sources: x.com/crypto_birb (profile and posts, via api.fxtwitter.com); youtube.com/@TheBirbNest; mpost.io profile
Técnico de ciclos e sazonalidade. Ele aponta suportes e resistências, mede alvos de padrões (“pegar o tamanho da base do padrão e somar à resistência”) e se apoia em estatísticas do ciclo do halving e do calendário para o quadro geral. O ponto forte desta amostra são as zonas de suporte: o preço as testou e repicou. O ponto fraco para um histórico é que muitas publicações apresentam dois desfechos ao mesmo tempo, então não podem ser claramente certas ou erradas.
Bullish. On 28 Sep he posted “Dear bears, your days are counted.” On 30 Sep he wrote that the “Bear bottom came in a few weeks early this year” and that the best quarter on record for Bitcoin “is about to start”. On 9 Oct, with BTC down from $87K to $81K, he wrote: “The bull market isn't up for debate.”
Seven dated Bitcoin calls from his own posts on X, charted against real CoinGecko price. Each quote is copied from the post as published and was re-fetched live. All seven are from late August to mid-October 2026: his earlier 2026 posts are not reachable through our tools, and we found no dated press coverage of his calls inside the window, so this is a short, recent sample.
“Rising 200-day trends support @ $72k-$75k. 4. Key 1D support held @ $82k Conclusion: Big bull catching a breath after first sprint.”
BTC was $83,691. He read the pullback as a pause in a bull market, with $82k as the daily support that had held and the rising 200-day averages at $72k–$75k below it. Since then BTC has closed under $82k four times, but by less than 1%: the lowest close was $81,408 (−2.7%). It is $81,764 now (−2.3%). The $72k–$75k zone has not been tested. Still open.
𝕏 Post“Big bull catching a breath after first sprint.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“A typical October would take us to $98,700. That's right. It's fair to expect near $100k prices soon. Will we get there in 30 days? No clue, but Q4 is crazy. Average Q4 gains +19.17% in midterms and +45.26% overall. We can see $100k-$122k before 2026 ends.”
BTC was $83,640, so a typical October meant about +18.0%. He said he had “no clue” whether it would take 30 days. October has gone the other way so far: the highest close was $86,490 (+3.4%) on 5 Oct, the lowest $81,408 (−2.7%). It is $81,764 now (−2.2%), and would need +22.3% to reach $100k. The $100k–$122k range has until 31 December. Still open.
𝕏 Post“A typical October would take us to $98,700.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“1. Upward breakout aiming at $88k. Or 2. Downward breakout targetting $70k.”
BTC was $78,173. He gave both outcomes and said “No idea” which one. It dipped to $75,590 (−3.3%) the next day, then broke upward to $86,597 (+10.8%) on 22 Sep — 1.6% short of $88k. $70k was never reached. It is $81,764 now (+4.6%). Still open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin's range can resolve in one of two ways.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin support area is 75.7k-77.9k. If short-term bulls lose this area (daily close below), $70,000 becomes the key magnet.”
BTC was $79,093. It fell into his zone and closed at $75,590 (−4.4%) on 16 Sep — $110 under the bottom of it — then was back inside at $76,147 the next day. The $70,000 magnet never pulled: BTC ran to $86,597 (+9.5%) on 22 Sep and is $81,764 now (+3.4%). The zone worked as support, but by our closes his own trigger tripped once. Still open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin support area is 75.7k-77.9k.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“$70,000 is main support moving forward. $100,000 is main resistance.”
BTC was $77,297. Since then it has stayed inside his range: the lowest close was $75,590 (−2.2%) and the highest $86,597 (+12.0%). It is $81,764 now (+5.8%). Neither level has been tested. Still open.
𝕏 Post“$70,000 is main support moving forward.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“A realistic expectation is 2.5x from market bottom. Baseline can aim at $144,500. An aggressive target would be $231,200 (4x)”
A target for the April 2028 halving, not for this year. BTC was $78,225; it is $81,764 now (+4.5%) and would need to rise another 77% to reach $144,500. He said he expects it to land between the two figures, “closer to the first one”. Still open until 2028.
𝕏 Post“Baseline can aim at $144,500.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“A trend and not a correction. From a technical standpoint, the bear market is over.”
BTC was $77,712, up 23% in nine days from $62,984 on 15 Aug. He called it a trend, not a relief bounce. It never gave the move back: the lowest close since was $75,590 (−2.7%), and BTC rose to $86,597 (+11.4%) on 22 Sep. It is $81,764 now (+5.2%). Played out so far — an eight-week read on a cycle call.
𝕏 Post“From a technical standpoint, the bear market is over.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.comOs resultados são a nossa leitura do que cada publicação dizia, medida contra fechamentos diários reais da CoinGecko — não a avaliação dele próprio. Os níveis são verificados contra fechamentos diários, então um toque intradiário pode ter ido além dos números apresentados. “Em aberto” significa que a previsão aponta um nível ou um horizonte que ainda não foi atingido nem rompido.
His X bio reads “Millionaire Speedrun” and links a futures trading competition on the Bitbase exchange with the referral code SPEEDRUN. On 22 Sep he wrote that his group gets “a cut of their fees”. He also posts promotions for OKX products (OKX Shield on 26 Sep, OKX VIP tiers on 15 Oct). Those are incentives worth knowing about when his posts turn bullish.
A trading program he promotes on X and on The Birb Nest YouTube channel (“Millionaire Speedrun - A Structured Path to Profitable Trading”). The bio link is a Bitbase futures competition with a referral code. On 22 Sep he wrote that entry is free with “our special @Bitbase_Ex code (we get a cut of their fees)”.
A marca dele para análise, educação e consultoria, com canal no YouTube e site. Vídeos mais antigos incluem conteúdos patrocinados sobre corretoras e projetos.
In July 2025 he wrote that he was rotating out of crypto into “cash, real estate, gold, hedge funds, luxury” and planned to re-enter in Q4 2026 or early 2027. On 5 Oct 2026 he wrote that he had “moved on to buy bitcoin bags for long term. Not touching it till Q2 2029.” He gave no size.
“From a technical standpoint, the bear market is over.”
24 Aug 2026 · O BTC subiu 11.4% sem devolver a alta“My opinion: top in July or late October/early November.”
9 Jul 2025 · O Bitcoin atingiu o pico em outubro de 2025“Bear bottom came in a few weeks early this year”
30 Sep 2026 · a leitura dele do mercado de baixa de 2026Citações transcritas das próprias fontes públicas dele; opiniões declaradas, não recomendações.
Não há nenhum vídeo recente sobre o mercado para indicar aqui. Os vídeos do canal The Birb Nest no YouTube neste período promovem o programa Millionaire Speedrun, e cada previsão no gráfico tem link para a publicação dele no X.
Adrian Zduńczyk, técnico de mercado certificado (CMT) polonês e fundador da The Birb Nest, que publica como @crypto_birb no X para cerca de 712K seguidores desde agosto de 2017.
On 30 Sep 2026 he wrote that the bear bottom was in, that “a typical October would take us to $98,700”, and that “we can see $100k-$122k before 2026 ends”. On 3 Sep he named $70,000 as main support and $100,000 as main resistance. For the April 2028 halving he gave a baseline of $144,500 and an aggressive target of $231,200.
Of seven dated Bitcoin calls from 24 Aug to 12 Oct 2026, one played out (the bear market is over) and six are still open. None has gone against him yet, but the sample is short and recent. Outside the chart window, his July 2025 call for a 2025 top followed by a 2026 bear market matched what happened. Treat it as a documented opinion, not advice.
Through The Birb Nest brand and the Millionaire Speedrun trading program. His X bio links a Bitbase futures trading competition with the referral code SPEEDRUN, and he has written that his group gets “a cut of their fees”. He also posts OKX promotions.
Crypto Birb opera o ciclo de quatro anos com zonas de suporte e estatísticas de calendário. Quão perto está o seu instinto? Meça de verdade com um Trader Passport.
Agora coloque sua abordagem em prática. Teste sua vantagem com dados de mercado ao vivo — sem capital em risco — em um torneio gratuito da BuyCrypt com prêmios reais.
Análise informativa e educativa baseada estritamente em materiais públicos (as próprias publicações datadas dele no X, o perfil no X, o canal The Birb Nest no YouTube e um perfil público no mpost.io, com links na página). Não é aconselhamento financeiro nem de investimento. Os números são aproximados e mudam constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Adrian? Envie uma correção →
Perfis verificados · Fontes citadas acima · Metodologia de avaliação · Atualizado 18 October 2026
