@BobLoukas
O homem que colocou a expressão “ciclo de 4 anos do Bitcoin” no YouTube em dezembro de 2018 — e que mantém uma carteira modelo pública contra ela. Loukas não opera manchetes; ele opera em que ponto do ciclo você está, data cada atualização e publica as compras. Isso torna o histórico dele excepcionalmente fácil de conferir — inclusive o trecho do início de 2026, quando o ciclo dizia queda e o preço dizia outra coisa.
Em resumo. Bob Loukas is a position trader with 30+ years in markets, founder of the membership site The Financial Tap, and the analyst most associated with Bitcoin's four-year cycle — a framework he traces to the cycle work of Walter Bressert and has applied to Bitcoin since 2018. His crypto analysis runs through a “4 Year Journey” model portfolio whose trades he posts publicly. The ten dated 2026 calls charted below split cleanly in two: his bearish first half was badly timed — a sub-$50,000 scenario that never came, and a “readying for another big leg lower” post published on the exact day of Bitcoin's March low — and then he caught the turn, calling the end of the counter-trend rally six days before the $82,018 May top, buying 10 BTC at $65,000 in June, and telling followers Bitcoin “isn't dead” at $60,990, which it now holds well above. In September he called for a break of that May high to confirm a new bull market, and it broke four days later; on 1 October he declared a new four-year cycle under way, conceding that his June scenario of a $53,000 low never came. His next targets, the $92,000–$97,000 range before a late-year shakeout, are logged open.
Bob Loukas é trader de posição e fundador do The Financial Tap, um site de assinatura que ele descreve não como serviço de trading, mas como “educação contínua de investimento”. A própria página “sobre” dele é precisa sobre o formato: mais de 30 anos de experiência de mercado, 52 atualizações em vídeo por ano, uma carteira modelo para membros e base em Nova York. Seu método vem de uma linhagem nomeada — ele credita “o trabalho pioneiro de Walter Bressert”, o analista de ciclos — e o define como o estudo de padrões recorrentes e mensuráveis em preço e tempo, não apenas em preço. A filosofia declarada dele é deliberadamente sem glamour: “I'm a realist. There's no holy grail of trading.”
O trabalho cripto dele é separado da assinatura de ações/macro: ele publica análise de Bitcoin exclusivamente no Bitcoin Live, uma plataforma de terceiros, sob a bandeira 4 Year Journey — uma carteira modelo pública gerida contra o ciclo de quatro anos. Ele também sobe vídeos gratuitos para um canal do YouTube de cerca de 150.000 inscritos, num ritmo de talvez seis por ano, cada um com título datado (“It's Not Different This Time”, “Not Done Yet”, “ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd”). Por relato dele mesmo, o primeiro vídeo da história no YouTube sobre o ciclo de 4 anos do Bitcoin foi o dele, em dezembro de 2018. Essa combinação — pouco frequente, datada e atrelada a uma carteira publicada — é o que torna o histórico dele conferível.
Um erro precisa constar antes de você ler o gráfico, porque fica logo fora da janela plotada aqui e por isso não pode ser pontuado. Em junho de 2025, com o Bitcoin perto de US$ 110.000, Loukas levantou um “double cycle blowoff” — dois topos de quatro anos vizinhos se fundindo em um — e disse que “if we've still got sort of a six to seven month expansion to a peak… that would lead us into maybe even a February or March peak”, com uma duplicação rumo a US$ 150.000–US$ 170.000. Em vez disso, o Bitcoin topou perto de US$ 126.000 em outubro de 2025 e já caía em fevereiro de 2026. Ele foi explícito ao dizer que eram cenários probabilísticos e não chamadas firmes — mas o cenário de extensão que levantou não aconteceu, e depois foi ele mesmo quem disse isso na câmera.
Sources: x.com/BobLoukas · his 4 Year Journey videos as reported by NewsBTC, Cointelegraph and U.Today · thefinancialtap.com · bitcoin.live/4yearcycle
Ciclos acima do ruído, num relógio longo. Loukas mapeia o Bitcoin como um ciclo de quatro anos medido em semanas do ciclo, com ciclos diários e semanais mais curtos aninhados dentro, e com uma premissa forte de que os ciclos se resolvem como sempre se resolveram: reteste, mínima mais baixa e então um fundo dentro de uma banda de tempo. Ele trabalha com as médias móveis de 10 semanas e 10 meses, com níveis de meio de ciclo (a cifra de US$ 53.000 nesta página é o meio de todo o ciclo de quatro anos) e com extremos de sentimento. É um trader de posição — a compra da carteira modelo em junho de 2026 foi a primeira em três anos e meio — então sua vantagem está em alocação e paciência, não em entradas. A fraqueza aparece nas chamadas abaixo: um arcabouço que diz “sempre há uma mínima mais baixa” te deixa estruturalmente adiantado no fundo, e estruturalmente relutante em admitir que uma mínima já foi feita.
Bullish on Bitcoin: he bought into the 2026 lows and on 1 October 2026 declared a new four-year cycle under way, while warning of one major shakeout to come. Explicitly bearish on the broader altcoin market.
Ten dated calls from 26 February to 1 October 2026, each charted against real price. Nine are his own X posts, captured verbatim from X's syndication endpoint; one comes from a press report of his dated 4 June video and was substring-matched against the live article. He is a cycle analyst, so the calls are structural (“another big leg lower,” “the end of a counter trend move,” “$53,000 is the midpoint”) rather than tight entries — we judged them on what price actually did next. The arc is unusually clean and it is not flattering in order, so three of the four misses come first: he spent February to April bearish and early, then called the May top almost to the day, bought the June lows, and in September called for a break of the May high. On 1 October he declared a new cycle under way, which closes his June scenario of a $53,000 low in October or November as a fourth miss. The September break has not yet reached his $90,000s, so it, his November–December shakeout call and the new-cycle call are logged open.
“If Bitcoin sees no counter-trend relief rally, and instead continues the downtrend to sub $50k (into March/April), the possibility this type of action induces an early 4 Year Cycle low is real.”
Posted on 26 February — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $71,149 on 15 March. He floated a slide below $50,000 during March or April. It was framed as a possibility, not a target — but the path did not open. From the anchor, the rest of March and April never closed below $65,947, and even the eventual cycle low on 1 July only reached $58,566 (−17.7%). Price went the other way instead: from the anchor Bitcoin ran +21.7% to $86,597 and holds $82,520 (+16.0%). The verdict rests on the level he named, which the moving anchor cannot change.
𝕏 Post“…continues the downtrend to sub $50k” — @BobLoukas, 26 Feb 2026↗ x.com“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower.”
The worst-timed post on the page. U.Today reported the chart's target as roughly $49,000. Posted on 2 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $71,149 on 15 March. When we first charted it, the day he posted was the lowest close of March and April; by the anchor Bitcoin had already bounced, and it reached $74,679 (+5.0%) on 17 March. A leg lower did eventually arrive, but not until July and only to $58,566 (−17.7%); $49,000 was never approached. From the anchor Bitcoin has run +21.7% to $86,597 and holds $82,520 (+16.0%).
𝕏 Post“this weekly chart remains horrendous” — @BobLoukas, 2 Mar 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin dominance bottomed out for the Cycle above 50%, without Bitcoin doing anything extraordinary, highlights the broader promise of Crypto has mostly failed.”
A call that Bitcoin's share of the market had bottomed — i.e. altcoins would keep losing ground. This hub can't chart the dominance index, so we score it on Solana as the tradeable alt proxy, and on that measure it went against him: from $86, SOL dipped −27.7% to $62, then ran +41.9% to $122 and holds $110 (+27.4%). Bitcoin over the identical span is +8.1%, so the altcoin proxy has clearly outperformed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin dominance bottomed out for the Cycle above 50%” — @BobLoukas, 22 Apr 2026↗ x.com“At the $53,000 level, we're tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
From his 4 June video, published at $64,047: the cycle midpoint at $53,000 is where the model portfolio's remaining cash goes to reach a 100% allocation, with the cycle low expected in October or November 2026. His structural claim on the same call — “there's generally always a lower low” — did deliver: Bitcoin fell −8.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. But $53,000 never printed, and on 1 October he closed the question himself: the new cycle's “confirming factors” were in, after a “slightly early Cycle Low (44 months vs 47)” with no “deeper move in June/July.” On 2 October he added that Bitcoin “didn't follow through on my preferred path” and that he “bought back a good amount at $64k.” The low came earlier and higher than the $53,000 he named, so we now score this against him. Bitcoin has since run +35.2% to $86,597 and holds $82,520 (+28.8%).
SourceVeteran Analyst Eyes $53,000 Bitcoin As Final Cycle Stage Begins — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.com“Bitcoin - Getting close now to the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market. $85-$88k area.”
His best call, and the one that redeems the misses above. At $79,826 he said the rally was a counter-trend bounce that was nearly finished. Bitcoin topped six days later at $82,018 (+2.7%) — the May high — and then fell −26.6% to $58,566. The $85–$88k zone he named was not reached in that move; Bitcoin only got there four months later, on 22 September, when it ran +8.5% to $86,597. It holds $82,520 (+3.4%). The level was off; the turn was right.
𝕏 Post“the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market” — @BobLoukas, 5 May 2026↗ x.com“The Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle Journey ‘Model Portfolio’ has made its first buy in 3.5yrs. Picking up 10BTC at $65,000.”
Not an opinion — a posted trade, and the model portfolio's first purchase since late 2022, taking it to roughly a 60% Bitcoin allocation. He was early, as his framework tends to make him: from the day's close of $66,727, price fell another −12.2% to $58,566 before turning. But it turned. Bitcoin has since run +29.8% to $86,597 and holds $82,520 (+23.7%). Judged as what it is — a cycle allocation, not an entry — it worked.
𝕏 Post“Picking up 10BTC at $65,000” — @BobLoukas, 3 Jun 2026↗ x.com“All the Bitcoin and Crypto FUD flooding the timeline is perfectly normal at this stage of a bear market. Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.”
Posted into peak capitulation at $60,990, six days before the cycle low. The drawdown after it was just −4.0% before Bitcoin ran +42.0% to $86,597; it holds $82,520 (+35.3%). One honest caveat: U.Today reported alongside this that he expected 3–5 months of sideways trade before a new cycle began in autumn; that part has not held, because price did not go sideways, it went up.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.” — @BobLoukas, 25 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Very good setup here for Bitcoin to smash through the May highs and confirm a new bull market. More importantly, the recent 4-week consolidation means any solid push through the highs is very likely a fresh new move that has legs (vs a trap) that might not look back until the $90's. Failure to break through sets up a move back to the lows of the range.”
A conditional call, posted at $76,371: a clean break of the May high ($82,018) would be a real move with legs that “might not look back until the $90's”; failure would send price back to the lows of the range. The first half came fast — four days later Bitcoin closed at $86,597 (+13.4%), its first close above the May high. It has not looked back far, but it has looked back: on 9 October it closed at $81,686, just under the May high, and it now holds $82,520 (+8.1%). The $90,000s have not printed, so this is logged open. It also marks a clear shift: in June the same model portfolio was waiting on $53,000.
𝕏 Post“smash through the May highs and confirm a new bull market” — @BobLoukas, 18 Sep 2026↗ x.com“Really solid Bitcoin push here to break the intermediate trend and resume the secular bull trend. As is common in any new move, a nasty shakeout is likely, but I’d suspect it doesn’t come until later and from higher.”
A two-part call, posted as Bitcoin broke out: the secular bull trend has resumed, and the “nasty shakeout” every new move gets should come later and from higher — which he pinned down in a reply to his own post four minutes later: “Later as in Nov/Dec and higher as in $92k-$97k range.” The chart anchors at $81,169, the 21 September daily point, recorded about 12 hours before his 12:36 UTC post, so part of the next day's jump to $86,597 (+6.7%) was the push he was describing, not a move he called. It holds $82,520 (+1.7%). Neither the $92,000s nor November have arrived, so this is open: it plays out if Bitcoin reaches his range before the shakeout, and goes against him if the shakeout comes first, from here.
𝕏 Post“resume the secular bull trend” — @BobLoukas, 21 Sep 2026↗ x.com“With the Sept monthly close, the remaining confirming factors for a new Bitcoin Cycle are now in. The slightly early Cycle Low (44 months vs 47), and lack of deeper move in June/July sets up a possibility of a Cycle that could well (upside) surprise. Versus say the diminishing return idea. But, don't forget that new Cycles (in all assets) generally have one major shakeout, the type to give bears hope, one more time.”
The cycle analyst formally calling the turn: after the September monthly close he declared a new four-year cycle under way, dated its low as slightly early, and said this cycle could surprise to the upside rather than deliver diminishing returns — with one major shakeout still to come. Posted at $83,576; since then Bitcoin has ranged between $81,686 (−2.3%) and $86,490 (+3.5%) and holds $82,520 (−1.3%). A cycle call is judged over months, not nine days, so this is open. It is also the post that ends his own June scenario of a $53,000 low in October or November, scored above.
𝕏 Post“the remaining confirming factors for a new Bitcoin Cycle are now in” — @BobLoukas, 1 Oct 2026↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Quotes are verbatim — X posts via the syndication endpoint, article quotes substring-matched against the live page, both linked on each card. The 22 April call is about Bitcoin dominance, which this hub cannot chart directly; we scored it against Solana as the tradeable altcoin proxy and say so on the card. His June 2025 “double cycle blowoff” miss pre-dates this window and is disclosed in the biography rather than scored here. The 26 February and 2 March posts have since aged out of the rolling price window, so their charts anchor on 15 March; their verdicts rest on the levels he named, not the anchor. Posts made during the UTC day are charted from that day's midnight point, which can precede the post by hours; the 21 September card says so.
Dois produtos pagos, ambos assinaturas, e nenhum é grupo de sinais. O notável é a separação: a assinatura de ações/macro fica no site dele, enquanto todo o trabalho com Bitcoin — incluindo a carteira modelo citada nesta página — vive numa plataforma de terceiros que não é dele.
O site dele: uma atualização em vídeo semanal (52 por ano), carteira modelo e relatórios escritos atrás de uma assinatura paga. Ele enquadra explicitamente como educação de investimento, não como serviço de trading.
Ele afirma publicar sua análise de Bitcoin e cripto exclusivamente no Bitcoin Live, onde vive a carteira modelo 4 Year Journey. A receita de assinatura ali é dividida com uma plataforma que ele não controla — vale saber quando uma chamada é também uma vitrine.
As atualizações em vídeo datadas são gratuitas e infrequentes — cerca de seis por ano. São a face pública de dois produtos pagos, então leia-as como o argumento, não como o livro inteiro. Nenhum token, curso ou indicação de corretora apareceu no registro público que revisamos.
“Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.”
25 Jun 2026 · seis dias antes da mínima de ciclo“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous…”
02 Mar 2026 · publicado exatamente na mínima de março–abril“At the $53,000 level, we're tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
04 Jun 2026 · a level that never printed before he declared the low inCitações retiradas das próprias fontes públicas; são opiniões declaradas, não recomendações.
Loukas posta no YouTube raramente — cerca de seis vezes por ano — e data cada vídeo, o que é o que os torna utilizáveis como registro. Estas são as atualizações dele dentro da janela; o vídeo de 4 de junho é de onde sai a chamada de US$ 53.000 desta página. Nota: neste servidor nenhuma transcrição pôde ser verificada, então nada dos vídeos é pontuado como chamada — apenas as citações de imprensa sobre eles e os posts dele.
The Ebb and FlowHis most recent update, nine days before the 18 September post charted above.09 Sep 2026
Signs of a New MarketEarly-September update, posted two weeks before his call for a break of the May high.05 Sep 2026
ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAdO vídeo de título sarcástico por trás da chamada do meio de ciclo em US$ 53.000.04 Jun 2026
Not Done YetAtualização no meio do drawdown, do trecho em que ele esteve baixista e adiantado.16 Apr 2026
It's Not Different This TimeO arcabouço do ciclo reafirmado quando a queda de 2026 engrenava.05 Feb 2026Um trader de posição com mais de 30 anos nos mercados, fundador do site de assinatura The Financial Tap e o analista mais associado ao ciclo de quatro anos do Bitcoin — ele diz que o primeiro vídeo do YouTube sobre o tema foi o dele, em dezembro de 2018. Tem base em Nova York e publica sua análise de Bitcoin no Bitcoin Live sob a bandeira “4 Year Journey”.
Um arcabouço de timing, herdado do analista de ciclos Walter Bressert, que mapeia o Bitcoin como um ciclo de cerca de quatro anos medido em semanas, com ciclos diários e semanais mais curtos aninhados dentro. Carrega a premissa forte de que um ciclo termina com um reteste e ao menos uma mínima mais baixa dentro de uma banda de tempo — que em 2026 ele situou por volta de outubro ou novembro.
Não verificado publicamente. A renda que ele revela é de assinaturas do The Financial Tap e do Bitcoin Live, além das próprias posições. Ignore qualquer cifra específica — nenhuma é confirmada.
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the 2026 record here is genuinely split: four misses — including a bearish post published on the exact low of March and April — against a top call six days early, a posted buy at $65,000 on a day Bitcoin closed at $66,727, and a contrarian bottom read six days before the cycle low. His June scenario of a $53,000 low in October or November also missed, as he acknowledged on 1 October. His June 2025 call for a February–March 2026 cycle peak also missed. Treat it as a documented, dated opinion — never trade it blindly.
Em três lugares: vídeos datados gratuitos no YouTube (~150K inscritos, cerca de seis por ano), seu próprio site de assinatura The Financial Tap para ações e macro, e Bitcoin Live — onde, segundo ele, sua análise de Bitcoin e cripto aparece exclusivamente, incluindo a carteira modelo 4 Year Journey.
Loukas opera o relógio, não a manchete: onde você está no ciclo decide a alocação, e a carteira modelo pode ficar parada três anos e meio. Quão perto está o seu instinto — meça de verdade com um Trader Passport.
Agora coloque sua resposta para trabalhar. Teste sua vantagem com dados de mercado ao vivo — sem capital em risco — em um torneio gratuito da BuyCrypt com prêmios reais.
Análise informativa e educacional baseada estritamente em materiais publicamente disponíveis — seus próprios posts datados no X, capturados literalmente, e reportagens datadas sobre seus vídeos públicos, linkadas em cada chamada. Nenhum conteúdo pago do The Financial Tap ou do Bitcoin Live foi acessado. Não é aconselhamento financeiro ou de investimento. Os números são aproximados e mudam constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Bob? Envie uma correção →
Perfis verificados · Fontes citadas acima · Metodologia de avaliação · Atualizado 10 October 2026
