@CryptoHayes
Cofundador da BitMEX, hoje CIO do seu family office Maelstrom — e o ensaísta macro mais citável do cripto. Todo o seu arcabouço cabe numa frase: é a quantidade de moeda fiduciária, não o preço do dinheiro, que define o preço do Bitcoin. Ele publica isso em ensaios datados, numerados e cheios de palavrões sob o próprio nome, e é exatamente por isso que dá para conferir.
Em resumo. Arthur Hayes writes the crypto market's most-read macro newsletter, Crypto Trader Digest, and runs Maelstrom, the family office built on his BitMEX fortune. His thesis rarely changes: central banks and treasuries will keep creating fiat to fund deficits, wars and the AI build-out, and Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to that expansion. What changes — sometimes violently — is his timing. Across 2026 he swung from telling readers to sit on their hands, to declaring a new all-time high a “foregone conclusion” at a price Bitcoin would not see again for four months, to admitting in print four weeks later that he had erred, to calling the bottom almost to the day. He publishes both halves, which is more than most.
Hayes nasceu em 1985, formou-se em economia por Wharton em 2008 e operou derivativos de ações no Deutsche Bank antes de passar ao Citigroup como trader de delta one em Hong Kong. Em 2014 cofundou a BitMEX com Ben Delo e Samuel Reed. O swap perpétuo com alavancagem de 100x da corretora virou o modelo do trading alavancado em cripto e deixou os três muito ricos.
Também terminou em processo criminal. Os três foram denunciados em outubro de 2020, e Hayes declarou-se culpado em fevereiro de 2022 de violar o Bank Secrecy Act — a BitMEX não manteve um programa de prevenção à lavagem de dinheiro nem de identificação de clientes enquanto atendia clientes dos EUA. Foi condenado a seis meses de prisão domiciliar e dois anos de liberdade condicional e concordou em pagar $10 milhões. Não cumpriu pena de prisão. O presidente Trump perdoou Hayes, Delo e Reed no fim de março de 2025. Qualquer leitura do trabalho dele sobre política monetária e regulatória deve carregar esse histórico junto.
Desde que saiu da BitMEX ele comanda a Maelstrom, um livro de family office só comprado, com posições iniciais em tokens como Ethena e Ether.fi, e publica a Crypto Trader Digest a cada uma a três semanas, aproximadamente. Em agosto de 2026 ele saiu da aposentadoria para ser CEO da Flop Labs, que planeja um token, o FLOP, como moeda para computação de agentes de IA — anunciado no próprio ensaio dele de 19 de agosto, com airdrop de testnet de cerca de 20% da oferta e sem pré-venda. Agora ele é um operador com um token para lançar, não apenas um comentarista.
Sources: cryptohayes.substack.com · x.com/CryptoHayes · dated public interviews and press
Top-down liquidity, expressed through derivatives. Hayes starts from the plumbing — Treasury issuance and buybacks, the Fed's balance sheet, bank credit creation, the BOJ and the yen carry trade, Chinese lending — and treats Bitcoin as the fastest-reacting claim on total fiat supply. He states it plainly: he believes the quantity of money determines Bitcoin's price, not the interest rate. His book is long-only and large, so he expresses caution by refusing to add rather than by going short, and hedges with put spreads and options rather than selling spot. The strength is the framework: he was structurally right that liquidity would expand, and his essays name the mechanism before the market prices it. The weakness is entry timing — a framework that says “eventually” gets used to justify buying anything, and in May 2026 it put him at maximum conviction on a high that held for four months.
Estruturalmente muito otimista: ele espera que a desvalorização da moeda acelere e diz que a Maelstrom está em risco máximo. Leia o número como convicção sobre direção, não sobre timing — o próprio histórico dele em 2026 mostra que são dois problemas diferentes.
Nine dated calls taken from his own newsletter, not from press paraphrase — his words, his publication dates, charted against real price. Ten Crypto Trader Digest essays fall inside our price window; these are the ones containing an actual BTC or ETH call. The shape of the year is worth stating up front: his best calls were the ones with no number in them. Two bottom calls landed almost to the day. The one time he named a target and a date-free certainty — “retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion” — he published it on 11 May 2026, at a price Bitcoin did not close above again until 22 September — and the levels he named, $90,000 and $126,000, have still not come.
“It behooves punters to limit the use of leverage and wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon.”
He deliberately refused to pick a side — either the fall from $126,000 to $60,000 was the whole move, or Bitcoin dumps further — and told readers to de-leverage and wait for a Fed all-clear. Both halves are still unresolved. The essay now predates our price window, which begins 8 March, so the chart anchors at $67,340 rather than his publication-day price. From there BTC fell −13.0% to $58,566 on 1 July, ran +28.6% to $86,597 on 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+25.6%). So waiting has cost money, but the drawdown he warned about did arrive. Logged open: the AI banking crisis this essay is built on has not happened in the seven and a half months since.
SourceThis Is Fine — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”
Two things he got right at $74,297: the spike he flagged landed inside his band — BTC printed $82,018 on 11 May, +10.4% — and declining to deploy fresh money was right through the summer, because price then fell −21.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. The later recovery went back into his band, to $86,597 on 22 September (+16.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+13.8%). The miss belongs on the same card: in this essay he wrote that he hoped Bitcoin could hold $60,000 in a crash. It did not. BTC closed at $58,566 on 1 July.
SourceNo Trade Zone — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
This is the one that matters. He called a new all-time high a foregone conclusion, said he expected the rally to turn explosive after punching through $90,000, and said he would take Maelstrom's book to maximum risk — and he published it at $82,018, a close Bitcoin did not see again for more than four months. It fell −28.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. The recovery finally cleared his entry in late September, peaking at $86,597 on 22 September (+5.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+3.1%) — but $90,000 has still not been reached, and $126,000 has not been retaken. It stays went against: neither level he named has arrived, and anyone who followed him in sat up to 28.6% under water before getting back to roughly flat. He recanted 28 days later, in writing — see the next call.
SourceThe Butterfly Touch — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
Written at $63,274, and it happened in exactly that sequence: BTC dumped −7.4% to $58,566 on 1 July, then pumped +36.9% to $86,597 by 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+33.7%). The same essay contains the sentence most commentators never write — “Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.” Marked played out on price, and worth noting for the correction.
SourceReality Test — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“As credit expands against a deceleration of AI CAPEX spend, Bitcoin will bottom and begin a secular rise.”
Close to exact. From $63,465, the lowest close that followed was $62,844 on 17 August — just −1.0% below him — before a +36.4% run to $86,597 on 22 September; BTC holds $84,580 (+33.3%). The caveat is on the card because it is in the same essay: his guessed levels were too low. He floated a $60,000 to $70,000 chop with $50,000 downside, and Bitcoin instead broke out above his range within a month and never came close to $50,000. Right on direction, wrong on the numbers.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”
His first hard number with a real deadline, and it is still live — 31 December 2026 is under three months out. His own “~2.6x” checks against our data: ETH was $1,859 when he wrote it. It has since run +49.3% to $2,775 on 22 September and holds $2,681 (+44.2%). But $5,000 needs roughly another +87% from here, so he is well behind pace. Logged open, not credited — and note that on 2 September he restated the same end-of-2026 Ether target at $10,000, which is a later call on this page.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Whether Bessent pumps fast or slow, Bitcoin will continue its rally.”
His position then: Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt are the new liquidity tap, the next bull market “just began”, and Maelstrom is back at maximum risk. From the $77,712 he wrote at, BTC first slipped −2.7% to $75,590 on 16 September, then ran +11.4% to $86,597 on 22 September — the highest close in our price window — and holds $84,580 (+8.8%). That is the rally continuing, as he said, with a shallow dip on the way. Marked played out as a direction call; he named no target. One disclosure: we date this to the essay's own timestamp of 24 August. Press covering it called it his 25 August essay; anchored to the 25th ($78,974) the call reads −4.3% at the dip, +9.7% at the high and +7.1% now — the same verdict.
SourceSame Same But Different — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Maelstrom’s preferred cryptos haven’t changed. Our structural Bitcoin long will anchor the portfolio. The more speculative short-term end of 2026 bets are still Ether ($10k price target), Ethena ($0.5 price target), and Ether.fi ($2 price target).”
Read the word still carefully. Four weeks earlier he put his end-of-2026 Ether target at $5,000; here he writes that nothing has changed and prints $10,000 — the number quietly doubled while the deadline stayed 31 December 2026. We log it as its own call rather than an edit of the older one. ETH was $2,418 the day he published, dipped −1.1% to $2,391 on 3 September, ran +14.8% to $2,775 on 22 September, and holds $2,681 (+10.9%). $10,000 needs roughly another +273% in under three months. Logged open, and it is the most demanding number on this page.
SourceAtención — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“This essay should give one confidence that the choppy nature of the crypto markets post the late August mini-pump will end soon. The amount of dollars in the system will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and selected shitcoins will rise in in price.”
His newest essay argues that if the leading AI labs slow down under a “Safety First” banner, the debt that financed their compute goes bad — much of it, he says, sitting on US insurers' books — and Washington must either become the compute buyer of last resort or print money for a bailout. “Either way, we as Bitcoin holders and crypto investors win.” (The doubled “in in” is in the original.) The chart anchors at $81,169 for 21 September; the next daily point is $86,597 (+6.7%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+4.2%). Do not credit him with that jump: he published at 23:07 UTC and our daily points are taken at midnight UTC, so much of the move may have happened before he wrote. Anchored to 22 September instead, the call reads −2.3% now. Twelve days old and with no level named, it is logged open.
SourceSafety First — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.comOs resultados são nossa leitura da posição declarada dele contra o preço real, não a pontuação dele. Cada citação foi conferida literalmente na página do ensaio a que está ligada, e cada ensaio foi baixado duas vezes para descartar uma captura defeituosa. Preços e percentuais vêm da mesma série da CoinGecko com que os gráficos são desenhados. Notas de chamadas com menos de um mês podem virar — e vão virar.
Hayes não vende sinais nem cursos, e distribui a newsletter de graça — mas é uma das vozes com mais conflitos de interesse do cripto, e esses conflitos mudaram de forma relevante em agosto de 2026. A maior parte ele mesmo declara; aqui estão reunidos num só lugar.
Ele gere uma carteira de family office só comprada, financiada pela fortuna da BitMEX, com posições declaradas em Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena e Ether.fi. Quando escreve que vai a “risco máximo”, está descrevendo operações que já montou. Os ensaios e o livro apontam sempre na mesma direção.
Desde 18–19 de agosto de 2026 ele é CEO da Flop Labs e está lançando o FLOP, um token para computação de agentes de IA, com airdrop de testnet previsto de cerca de 20% da oferta e bloco gênese mirado em 2027. Ele diz que é autofinanciado, sem pré-venda e sem alocação para fundos de venture. Ainda assim, é um comentarista prevendo um boom de liquidez enquanto se prepara para emitir um token dentro dele.
Ele cofundou a corretora que popularizou a alavancagem de 100x, declarou-se culpado em 2022 de violar o Bank Secrecy Act, pagou $10 milhões, cumpriu seis meses de prisão domiciliar e dois anos de liberdade condicional, e foi perdoado pelo presidente Trump em março de 2025. Hoje ele escreve muito sobre política monetária e política dos EUA. Pondere isso como achar melhor.
“Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.”
08 Jun 2026 · assumindo o erro de maio por escrito“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
11 May 2026 · published at a high that held four months“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
08 Jun 2026 · a chamada que se cumpriu, e nessa ordemCitações retiradas das suas próprias fontes públicas; opiniões declaradas, não recomendações.
Hayes publica ensaios em vez de vídeos, então suas aparições longas são palestras e entrevistas como convidado em canais de terceiros. Exemplos recentes datados, com cada data confirmada na página do vídeo:
Arthur Hayes Bitcoin 2026 Keynote: 21 Weeks LaterPalestra na Bitcoin Magazine — a guerra do Irã, a perda de empregos pela IA e o Fed.27 Apr 2026
The AI Trade Is Killing Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Breaks It DownEntrevista à Cointelegraph, dias após a virada dele em Reality Test.12 Jun 2026
Bitcoin to $200K And AI Is the Next 2008 | Arthur HayesCoin Bureau Podcast — a tese do estouro de crédito da IA por inteiro.21 Aug 2026
The Godfather Of Crypto Trading: My Final Warning To Bitcoin HoldersAltcoin Daily — a postura atual dele sobre liquidez e alavancagem.23 Aug 2026Arthur Hayes é um investidor e ensaísta norte-americano, nascido em 1985. Operou derivativos de ações no Deutsche Bank e no Citigroup antes de cofundar em 2014 a corretora de derivativos cripto BitMEX com Ben Delo e Samuel Reed. Hoje comanda o family office Maelstrom como CIO, escreve a newsletter Crypto Trader Digest e desde agosto de 2026 é CEO da Flop Labs.
Não. Ele foi denunciado em outubro de 2020 e declarou-se culpado em fevereiro de 2022 de violar o Bank Secrecy Act, porque a BitMEX operava sem um programa de prevenção à lavagem de dinheiro nem de identificação de clientes enquanto atendia clientes dos EUA. Foi condenado a seis meses de prisão domiciliar e dois anos de liberdade condicional e pagou $10 milhões. Não cumpriu pena de prisão, e o presidente Trump o perdoou no fim de março de 2025.
Não é verificado publicamente. Ele é amplamente descrito como bilionário por conta da fatia na BitMEX, e seu family office Maelstrom mantém grandes posições em cripto, mas não existe número confirmado. Trate qualquer valor específico que você vir como estimativa, não como fato.
His direction has been more reliable than his timing. On this page his two bottom calls — 8 June and 4 August 2026 — landed almost to the day, while his most confident target call, published 11 May 2026, came at a price Bitcoin did not close above again for four months, and its $90,000 and $126,000 levels have not been reached. He is also not a neutral observer: he runs a long-only crypto book and is launching his own token. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Ele argumenta que é a quantidade de moeda, e não a taxa de juros, que define o preço do Bitcoin — então acompanha emissões e recompras do Tesouro, o balanço do Fed, a criação de crédito bancário, o carry trade do iene e o crédito chinês, e mantém um livro só comprado que aumenta ou reduz conforme essa leitura. Expressa cautela recusando-se a aumentar em vez de vender a descoberto, e protege com opções e put spreads.
Hayes opera uma única ideia — vem mais moeda por aí — e a dimensiona forte. Quão perto está o seu instinto? Meça de verdade com um Trader Passport.
Agora coloque sua abordagem para trabalhar. Teste sua vantagem com dados de mercado ao vivo — sem risco de capital — num torneio gratuito da BuyCrypt com prêmios reais.
Análise informativa e educacional baseada estritamente em materiais públicos — principalmente seus próprios ensaios datados da newsletter, com link em cada chamada que sustentam. Não é aconselhamento financeiro nem de investimento. Os números são aproximados e mudam constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Arthur? Envie uma correção →
Perfis verificados · Fontes citadas acima · Metodologia de avaliação · Atualizado 3 October 2026
