@fundstrat
El alcista más citado de la televisión financiera, y uno de los pocos que le pone un número y una fecha. Lee dirigió la estrategia de renta variable en J.P. Morgan antes de cofundar Fundstrat, y hoy preside una empresa tesorería de Ethereum mientras pide Bitcoin a 250.000 $. Esa combinación es exactamente por lo que su historial merece graficarse, y leerse con el conflicto de interés a la vista.
En resumen. Tom Lee is a Wall Street strategist, not a crypto trader: Chief Equity Strategist at J.P. Morgan from 2007 to 2014, then co-founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, and since 30 June 2025 chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies — a company whose entire business is holding Ethereum. He is on CNBC constantly, he gives round-number targets, and he almost never gives an invalidation level. Charted over the last seven months the pattern is consistent and unflattering in a specific way: he is early, repeatedly and expensively. He called the end of crypto winter in February, again in March, again in May — the actual bottom was 1 July. But when the market finally broke, on 26 June, he refused to abandon the thesis within 2% of the low. In September he went further — a crypto bull market “underway”, Ethereum to a new high this year — and those calls are still open. Eleven dated calls here: 3 played out, 5 still open, 3 went against him.
Lee se licenció con un BSE en la Wharton School con especialización en finanzas y contabilidad, tiene la acreditación CFA y construyó una carrera convencional en el sell side: director gerente en Salomon Smith Barney y después Chief Equity Strategist en J.P. Morgan de 2007 a 2014. La propia página de equipo de Fundstrat señala que ha estado en lo más alto del ranking de Institutional Investor todos los años desde 1998. En 2014 cofundó Fundstrat Global Advisors, una casa de análisis independiente, donde es jefe de análisis; también es director de inversiones de Fundstrat Capital, cuya gama de ETFs «Granny Shots» (GRNY, GRNI, GRNJ) tenía 5.100 millones de dólares en activos combinados a 27 de agosto de 2026.
El lado cripto es más nuevo y mucho más ruidoso. El 30 de junio de 2025 fue nombrado presidente del consejo de BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE American: BMNR), una empresa tesorería que compra y hace staking de Ethereum: a finales de agosto de 2026 tenía cerca de 5,9 millones de ETH. Eso no es una nota al pie de transparencia; es el contexto de casi todo lo que dice sobre Ethereum, y esta página lo trata así.
Sus fallos son grandes, públicos y en su mayoría cuestión de timing. La cobertura de su aparición en CNBC del 4 de marzo de 2026 recoge que había predicho Bitcoin a 150.000–200.000 $ para finales de enero y Ethereum a 7.000–9.000 $ para finales de enero; ETH entró en febrero «apenas por encima de 3.000 $». En la Binance Blockchain Week de diciembre de 2025 fue más lejos desde el escenario: «Creo que Bitcoin va a llegar a 250.000 $ en unos meses.» Esas llamadas quedan fuera de la ventana de siete meses que esta página puede graficar, así que se declaran aquí en vez de omitirse en silencio. También hay una división dentro de su propia firma: el jefe de estrategia de activos digitales de Fundstrat, Sean Farrell, tenía como escenario base un retroceso de Bitcoin a 60.000–65.000 $ a principios de 2026 — justo el rango que se imprimió — mientras Lee pedía públicamente nuevos máximos.
Sources: fundstrat.com · x.com/fundstrat · CNBC · dated third-party coverage (linked on every call)
De arriba abajo, temático, con el objetivo por delante. Lee parte del régimen macro (política de la Fed, liquidez, el ISM, la relación cobre-oro), de los flujos y de las curvas de adopción, y luego expresa la visión como un número redondo con un año pegado: 250.000 $ Bitcoin, 12.000 $ Ethereum, 8.200 en el S&P. En cripto, su única herramienta analítica real es la relación de precio ETH/BTC: elige un objetivo de Bitcoin, elige una ratio, multiplica. Es un marco transparente y enseña la aritmética, pero significa que sus cifras de Ethereum heredan todos los errores de sus cifras de Bitcoin. Lo que falta casi por completo es gestión del riesgo: ni stop, ni nivel de invalidación, ni tamaño, ni horizonte más ajustado que «este año». Además toma prestados niveles ajenos para el timing (los conteos de ciclo de Tom DeMark, el modelo de tendencia de John Bollinger) en lugar de generar los suyos. Léalo por la tesis y los flujos, nunca por la entrada.
Tan alcista como permite la escala, y estructuralmente: preside una empresa tesorería de Ethereum y gestiona ETFs de renta variable solo largos. En siete meses de declaraciones dentro de la ventana no ha hecho ni una bajista; lo más cercano es «el precio irá rezagado a corto plazo», dicho tres días antes del suelo.
Eleven dated statements from the chartable window, each one pulled back verbatim from its own source page before it was scored. Lee gives targets but not timeframes tighter than “this year”, so most of these are judged on what price did next from the day he said it. The result splits cleanly by type: his bottom-calling is early and costly — February, March and May all called the end of crypto winter before a further −14.9%, −14.2% and −27.6% — while his thesis-defending at the actual low was excellent. Result: 3 played out, 5 still open, 3 went against him. His bigger misses ($250k Bitcoin “within a few months”, $7–9k Ethereum by January) predate this window and are in the biography, not buried.
“do I think Ethereum could reach all-time highs this year? Uh, absolutely.”
On the Coinage podcast, with ETH at $2,684, he gave a two-step path: $3,000 in the near term, then well above $5,000 — a new all-time high — before year-end, with $60,000 still “a reasonable view” for a couple of years out. Four days in: a high of $2,696 (+0.4%), and it holds $2,649 (−1.3%). His own $5,000 marker needs +88.7% from here in about three months. Open — and he chairs BitMine, which holds close to 6 million ETH.
SourceTom Lee says Ethereum could surge past $5,000 this year to new high — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“We believe a crypto bull market is underway, having started in late June,”
In his 21 September note, with BTC at $81,169. His reasons: rotation out of AI stocks back into crypto, tokenization, and the end of the four-year cycle. The start date he gives is fair — Bitcoin's low was 1 July, and he held the thesis there (see 26 June). The rest is untested: BTC ran +6.7% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $83,346 (+2.7%). One week does not make a bull market — open.
SourceBitcoin braces for $15.6B Friday showdown as Tom Lee says bull run underway — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The price ratio of ETH to BTC moved to the highest level since Jan 30th of this year and established a new uptrend,”
His favourite tool again, in BitMine's weekly update, with ETH at $2,477 and the ratio at 0.0322. Ethereum itself did fine: a dip to $2,397 (−3.2%), then +12.1% to $2,775, and it holds $2,649 (+7.0%). The ratio he actually called has not trended: it peaked at 0.0326 on 21 September and is 0.0318 now, a shade below where he said it broke out — Bitcoin kept pace. Open.
SourceBitmine adds $68 million in ether as Tom Lee sees more upside catalysts ahead — CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“I think it's the first leg up because this was like a catching people offside, moving crypto.”
On CNBC with BTC at $77,658 he called the August rally the first leg up and said his $150,000 target was “still possible, not that far off”, naming the 15 September Fed meeting as the pivot. That meeting has passed and the leg has extended, unevenly: a dip to $75,590 (−2.7%) on 16 September, then +11.5% to $86,597 on 22 September, and BTC holds $83,346 (+7.3%). Direction right so far, but $150,000 is still +80.0% away — open.
SourceTom Lee sees ‘very strong’ September rally if the Fed holds — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think that's being very conservative,”
His arithmetic: ETH/BTC back to 0.04 with Bitcoin at $150,000 gives $6,000 Ethereum by year-end — and he called that conservative. He said it with ETH at $2,511. Since then: a dip to $2,391 (−4.8%) on 3 September, then +10.5% to $2,775, and it holds $2,649 (+5.5%). Both inputs are still far off — the ratio is 0.0318, Bitcoin $83,346 — and the target needs +126.5% from here in about three months. Open — and note he chairs BitMine, which owns the ETH.
SourceEthereum will hit $6,000 as CLARITY Act ‘supercharges’ Wall Street demand — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Upside breakout happened for $ETH / $BTC,”
Posted on X with ETH at $1,890: the ratio had cleared resistance and a broadening rally was underway. It worked, on both legs. ETH dipped just −2.6% to $1,841, then ran +46.8% to $2,775 by 22 September and holds $2,649 (+40.1%). The ratio he was actually calling went from 0.0291 to 0.0318 over the same stretch. His cleanest call in the window.
SourceTom Lee says Ethereum has broken out against Bitcoin — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Crypto I think is not really a broken story, but it is going to have price lagging in the near term because the fundamental story is compounding”
Talking to Anthony Scaramucci with sentiment worse than post-FTX and BTC at $59,727, he refused to drop the thesis. Bitcoin fell just −1.9% further, to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — then ran +45.0% to $86,597 and holds $83,346 (+39.5%). Ethereum bottomed that same day. The hedge he added, that price would lag, was the half he got wrong: price led. Called within 2% of the bottom.
SourceTom Lee says crypto is ‘not really broken’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“In other words, the fact that we're up three months in a row means crypto winter is over.”
A BitMine shareholder message, argued from a monthly-close statistic: three green months for Ethereum, therefore no winter. He published it on the exact day Bitcoin printed this window's high, with ETH at $2,370. ETH then fell −33.9% to $1,566 by 26 June — the deepest drawdown here. It did not close back above that day's price until 22 August; it has since run +17.1% to $2,775 and holds $2,649 (+11.8%). The direction eventually paid, but the winter he ended was still six weeks from its low.
SourceTom Lee calls the end of crypto winter once again — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Crypto spring is here.”
Three words, posted on top of John Bollinger's trend-model flip, with BTC at $80,914 — five days from the May high. Bitcoin managed +1.4% to $82,018 on 11 May, then fell −27.6% to $58,566 by 1 July, and did not close back above el nivel señalado until 4 September. It has since run +7.0% to $86,597 and holds $83,346 (+3.0%) — a 28% drawdown to be up 3% five months later. His worst-timed in-window call, and a borrowed signal rather than his own.
SourceTom Lee says ‘crypto spring’ is here — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“They're all probably in the final stages or have already bottomed.”
On CNBC's Squawk Box, with BTC at $68,287: the worst of the sell-off would hit “this week”, and crypto had already bottomed. The short half was fine — BTC's worst close that week was $66,043 (−3.3%) and it ran to $74,679 (+9.4%) by 17 March. The bottom call was not: Bitcoin made a −14.2% lower low at $58,566 on 1 July. High since $86,597 (+26.8%), now $83,346 (+22.1%) — the direction eventually paid, this call didn't.
SourceBitcoin and Ethereum price to surge in March? Tom Lee bullish on rebound — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think it touched it to the penny. He thinks we just have to undercut it once more, and that's the low. meaning we're really close to the end”
At Consensus in Hong Kong, BTC at $68,838. The structure he described — one more undercut of the $60,000 area, and that is the low — is exactly what happened: Bitcoin bottomed once, at $58,566 (−14.9%), and has not been lower since; it ran +25.8% to $86,597 and holds $83,346 (+21.1%). 14 February has now rolled off the chart's price history, which starts on 3 March at $68,816, so the chart anchors there — the percentages come out the same. Two caveats we won't hide. The $60,000 level was Tom DeMark's, not his — Lee was endorsing his timing advisor. And “really close to the end” meant April in the same coverage; the low came on 1 July, four and a half months and one 15% drawdown later.
SourceTom Lee forecasts end of crypto winter, names Bitcoin and Ethereum support — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.comLos resultados son nuestra lectura de su sesgo declarado frente al precio real de CoinGecko, no su propio marcador. Donde nombró el nivel de otro (los 60.000 $ de Tom DeMark), la ficha lo dice. Preside BitMine, una empresa tesorería de Ethereum, así que cada llamada sobre Ethereum aquí lleva un interés financiero directo: pondérelo. Las marcas abiertas pueden cambiar.
Lee no vende señales: vende análisis institucional, gestiona ETFs solo largos y preside una tesorería cotizada de Ethereum. Este último es el conflicto que importa, y está declarado en su propio perfil de X.
Análisis institucional y minorista (Fundstrat Global Advisors / FundstratDirect) vendido a hedge funds, fondos de inversión y family offices. El producto es la opinión, así que la opinión tiene que ser interesante.
Es CIO de la gestora detrás de GRNY, GRNI y GRNJ, 5.100 millones de dólares combinados a 27 de agosto de 2026. Fondos de renta variable solo largos que cobran comisión de gestión sobre activos: un incentivo para ser constructivo con la bolsa.
Preside una empresa tesorería de Ethereum con cerca de 5,9 millones de ETH. Cuando llama a Ethereum «enormemente infravalorado» en un pódcast, habla del balance que él preside. Trate cada llamada sobre ETH aquí como interesada.
Apariciones en CNBC, Consensus, Milken, Binance Blockchain Week. El alcance es el canal de distribución de los tres negocios anteriores.
“Crypto I think is not really a broken story, but it is going to have price lagging in the near term because the fundamental story is compounding”
26 Jun 2026 · dicho tres días antes del mínimo de Bitcoin“Upside breakout happened for $ETH / $BTC,”
15 Jul 2026 · la ratio ETH/BTC es su única herramienta cripto real“Crypto spring is here.”
6 May 2026 · publicado cinco días antes del techo“In other words, the fact that we're up three months in a row means crypto winter is over.”
11 May 2026 · cierres mensuales como señal de suelo — seis semanas antesCitas tomadas de sus propias fuentes públicas; son opiniones expresadas, no recomendaciones.
Aquí no hay videoteca enlazada. La producción de Lee son los programas de otros: apariciones en CNBC, invitaciones a pódcast, conferencias magistrales, más el análisis de pago de Fundstrat y las cartas a accionistas de BitMine. Su propio canal de YouTube no publica desde 2024, y los segmentos de CNBC no traen transcripción que podamos citar. En lugar de rellenar esta sección con clips que no podemos citar con exactitud, la dejamos vacía: cada llamada graficada arriba enlaza a una página fechada que recoge sus palabras literalmente, y todas están reproducidas en el corpus verificado que hay detrás de este dosier.
Thomas J. Lee, CFA, es un estratega de Wall Street: Chief Equity Strategist en J.P. Morgan de 2007 a 2014, después cofundador y jefe de análisis de Fundstrat Global Advisors y director de inversiones de Fundstrat Capital. Desde el 30 de junio de 2025 preside además BitMine Immersion Technologies, una empresa tesorería de Ethereum cotizada. Es uno de los comentaristas de mercado más solicitados de CNBC.
A lo largo de 2026 ha mantenido públicamente un objetivo de 250.000 $ para Bitcoin, con 150.000 $ como marca más cercana: el 31 de agosto de 2026 dijo «Creo que 150 sigue siendo posible, no tan lejos» con Bitcoin a 77.658 $. No publica un nivel de invalidación, y su objetivo anterior (150.000–200.000 $ para finales de enero) falló.
He is a research analyst and commentator, not your adviser, and he has a direct financial interest in Ethereum through BitMine. His documented pattern in the window charted here is that his direction has been broadly right and his timing repeatedly early — he called the end of crypto winter in February, March and May before the actual low on 1 July. Three of the eleven dated calls on this page went against him. Never trade a headline target without your own invalidation level.
De arriba abajo y temática: leer el régimen macro (Fed, liquidez, ISM), identificar una tendencia de adopción de varios años y expresarla como un objetivo redondo con un año pegado. Para cripto trabaja concretamente desde la ratio de precio ETH/BTC — elige un objetivo de Bitcoin, elige una ratio, multiplica —, lo que es transparente pero significa que sus cifras de Ethereum heredan todos los errores de sus cifras de Bitcoin.
Preside BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE American: BMNR), que a finales de agosto de 2026 tenía cerca de 5,9 millones de ETH y afirma haber recorrido en torno al 98 % del camino hacia su objetivo de poseer el 5 % de la oferta. Su perfil de X lleva una etiqueta de empresa por ello. Cualquier llamada suya sobre Ethereum debe leerse como interesada.
Lee elige un tema, elige un número y lo sostiene a través del desplome. ¿Cuánto se acerca su instinto? Mídalo de verdad con un Trader Passport.
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Análisis informativo y educativo basado estrictamente en materiales públicos (cobertura fechada de terceros y sus propias publicaciones públicas, enlazadas en cada llamada). Tom Lee preside BitMine Immersion Technologies, una empresa tesorería de Ethereum, y es CIO de una gestora de ETFs; ambos hechos están declarados arriba y son relevantes para sus opiniones. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de inversión. Las cifras son aproximadas y cambian constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Tom? Enviar una corrección →
Cuentas verificadas · Fuentes citadas arriba · Metodología de puntuación · Actualizado 28 September 2026
