@MerlijnTrader
Una cuenta de gráficos neerlandesa que publica una idea a la vez, en mayúsculas y con un único gráfico anotado: este año rima con 2018 / 2022 / 2017, y este es el nivel que lo decide. Mucho volumen, muy legible y — algo raro en el género — casi siempre acompañado de un número que luego se puede comprobar. Lo comprobamos.
En resumen. Merlijn The Trader is one of the loudest pattern accounts on X (~380K followers) and a much smaller YouTube channel (16.2K). The method is consistent: take a historical analogue — the 2022 bottom, the 2018 death cross, August 2017 — overlay it on the present chart, and name the one level that confirms or kills it. That makes him easy to grade, and the grade is genuinely mixed. His July 2026 bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether landed within days of the actual turn. His June 2026 “spring to $50K” road-map missed on both legs while price ran 42% the other way, and his April death-cross analogue pointed at a crash that never came. His September “Rektember” warning was followed by the month's rally; since mid-September he has been loudly bullish again (“don't wait for $50K”, “road to $170K”), and those calls are still open. He is also a paid-promotion business — his own link page sells “Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — which belongs in the frame next to the charts.
Merlijn publica como @MerlijnTrader para unos 380.000 seguidores, con un canal de YouTube mucho más pequeño (16.2K suscriptores, activo desde junio de 2021, ~1,1 M de visualizaciones totales) que repite la misma tesis diaria en vídeo. La cuenta de X lleva una insignia de afiliación a @cryptorover — la etiqueta de empresa de Crypto Rover — así que ambas cuentas están dentro de la misma operación mediática, no son voces independientes que casualmente coinciden. Su canal de YouTube declara su propio proyecto sin rodeos: “The mission: turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, documentado en directo.
He is a commentator and marketer, not a fund. His public link page describes him as a consultant and business coach, invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”, and sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — i.e. projects can buy promotion from the same account that publishes the analysis. For honesty, note the big out-of-window calls too: in August 2025 he pushed back on $124K being the top (“0/30 peak indicators have triggered”), and in November 2025 he called the fear “manufactured” and the cycle only at “50% progress”, “not exit liquidity season”. In the seven months this page charts, Bitcoin never traded above $86,597 and printed $58,566 on 1 July 2026 — nowhere near $124K. Those posts are outside the price window so they are not charted, but they belong on the record.
Sources: x.com/MerlijnTrader (posts captured via x_capture.py) · youtube.com/@Merlijntrader (upload titles verified via oEmbed, dates from the video page) · linktr.ee/merlijnthetrader
Análisis técnico fractal primero. El motor es la analogía: encontrar un año pasado cuyo gráfico se parezca a este (2017, 2018, 2022), asumir que la estructura se repite y luego nombrar el nivel que lo demuestra. Alrededor de eso usa fases de acumulación de Wyckoff (spring, mark-up), cruces de medias móviles, Stochastic RSI, un panel de ~30 indicadores de pico de ciclo y titulares on-chain o macro (colas de salida de validadores, expectativas de tipos de la Fed, solicitudes de ETF) como confirmación. La fortaleza es la falsabilidad: se compromete con números como “$60K is the decision” o “DCA zone $48–59K”. La debilidad es la otra cara de esa misma promesa: cuando el análogo no se repite, la conclusión no es simplemente temprana, es inversa, y sus publicaciones casi nunca llevan tamaño de posición ni precio de invalidación para el lector.
Estructuralmente alcista: la conclusión recurrente es que el suelo ya está y la multitud lo vendió. Las publicaciones bajistas de esta muestra son de corto plazo y condicionales; las alcistas son la tesis.
Twelve dated calls of his own, charted against real CoinGecko price. Ten are X posts fetched back with their text and timestamp intact; two are the titles of his own YouTube uploads, dated from the video page. The sample is deliberately not a highlight reel: it includes the two July bottom calls that landed (BTC and ETH, within days of the turn), the June road-map that missed on both legs, the April death-cross analogue that pointed at a −67% repeat which never arrived, and the May “Solana is the loser” post that Solana then outperformed on. Note what this is: twelve calls from an account that publishes many times a day, picked because they contained a checkable number — not a complete log of everything he said. His 2025 “$124K is not the top / 50% through the cycle” posts fall outside the price window; they are in the biography above, unscored.
“$BTC BULLS THIS ISN'T WHAT YOU WANTED TO SEE. Bitcoin breakdown confirmed. All eyes on $80,500 now. Hold it, and this is just a shakeout. Lose it, and I expect more pain.”
A two-branch call with the level spelled out. Bitcoin was $84,449 that day, so $80,500 sat 4.7% below it. A day later it is $83,145 (−1.5%), still $2,645 above his line, so neither branch has triggered. The next morning he posted the same idea in more detail as a Wyckoff plan: a backup to $81K–$82K, then $90K if that holds. Open.
𝕏 Post“All eyes on $80,500 now.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K”
Published the day Bitcoin closed at $86,597, the highest price in this page's window. The title names a $170,000 destination, +96.3% away, with no date attached. We have the title, not a transcript, so we grade the title. A week on, Bitcoin is $83,145, −4.0% below him, and no day has closed higher since. A multi-year target: open.
Source“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 22 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In”
A bottom call made one day after Bitcoin's lowest September close, $75,590 on the 16th. He published at $76,147 and told viewers not to wait for $50,000. Twelve days later no day in our series has closed below his day's price. The high since is $86,597 (+13.7%) and Bitcoin trades at $83,145 (+9.2%). A fortnight is too short to grade a “bottom is in” call, so it stays open, but so far price agrees with him.
Source“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 17 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“REKTEMBER IS HERE: … Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September. Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him. … Rektember arrived without the safety net.”
A rate-scare warning with no level attached, so we graded it on the month it named. From $77,416 Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.4%) on 16 September. It then ran to $86,597 (+11.9%) on the 22nd and trades at $83,145 (+7.4%) with September all but over. The month did not bleed; it was the month the rally resumed. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Rektember arrived without the safety net.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled.”
The premise checks out — our daily series has Bitcoin going $62,820 → $77,658 across August, +23.6%, against his quoted +24.39%. The conclusion is a Q4 call, and Q4 starts on Thursday. Since the post, Bitcoin has dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%), run to $86,597 (+11.5%), and sits at $83,145 (+7.1%). That was a good September for his thesis, but the claim is that Q4 triples like 2017. Open.
𝕏 Post“When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling. Price is pinned right below it at $65,300. As long as that level caps us, the range holds and a dip toward $54K liquidity is on the table.”
Two branches, and the tape took the one he named as the invalidation. The ceiling did hold for three more weeks — from $65,344 Bitcoin sagged to $62,773 (−3.9%) by 2 August and closed under $67K every single day until 20 August. Then it reclaimed the level and ran: high since $86,597 (+32.5%), now $83,145 (+27.2%). The $54K liquidity he pointed at never got close — the lowest print is $8,773 above it. Range read right, downside target never armed: open, not scored.
𝕏 Post“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“2,600,000 ETHEREUM QUEUED TO EXIT IN SEPTEMBER. TODAY THE QUEUE IS EMPTY. … That queue cleared straight into a 47% drawdown. Whoever wanted out is already out. That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
Well timed. Ether was $1,953; the worst it did afterwards was $1,843 (−5.6%), then it ran to $2,775 (+42.1%) and trades at $2,666 (+36.5%). The reasoning was an emptied validator exit queue rather than a chart, and the call landed within days of the low.
𝕏 Post“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN TAPPED ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE HIGH TWICE. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022. … 2026: price fell to the 2021 top, tapped it twice, and it's up 13% this month. Same structure.”
The 2022 analogue worked here. From $66,077 Bitcoin dipped only to $62,773 (−5.0%), then ran to $86,597 (+31.1%) and sits at $83,145 (+25.8%). His “up 13% this month” also checks: the July low was $58,566 on the 1st, so +12.8% into the day he posted.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin tapped its previous cycle high twice.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don't go all-in on it. … 2026: Same playbook. Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
The most specific call in the set, and the clearest miss. Bitcoin was $60,855. The Wyckoff spring to ~$50K never happened — the lowest print since is $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, which only clips the very top edge of his $48–59K accumulation band. And the bounce did not stall in his $65–70K box: the high since is $86,597 (+42.3%) and price is $83,145 (+36.6%). “Don't go all-in on it” was the wrong instruction — that bounce was the move.
𝕏 Post“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS: Goldman Sachs just separated winners from losers. Publicly. Sold: all Solana ETF holdings. … Kept: Bitcoin exposure. Kept: Ethereum infrastructure plays.”
The filing was real; the winners-and-losers reading was not. Solana was $85, fell to $62 (−27.0%) — but so did everything, with Bitcoin −24.4% and Ether −26.5% over the same stretch — and it has since recovered to $118 (+38.3%) after a high of $122 (+43.3%). Over the period he framed it in, the coin he called the loser beat the Bitcoin he said the bank kept (+7.4%) by about 31 points.
𝕏 Post“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS. THEN DEATH CROSS. TWICE. 2018: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -67%. 2022: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -69%. 2026: golden cross printed. Death cross forming. $60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
He put two analogues on the table (−67% in 2018, −69% in 2022) and made $60K the line that chose between them. The line broke: from $68,107 Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−14.0%), about 2.4% under el nivel señalado. Then nothing resembling the analogue followed — the high since is $86,597 (+27.1%) and price is $83,145 (+22.1%). The level was a fair pivot; the crash he attached to losing it never existed.
𝕏 Post“$60K is the decision.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“ETHEREUM HAS PRINTED THIS PATTERN TWICE IN FOUR MONTHS. 3 step rally. Stoch RSI peaks. Rollover. Dump. November: textbook. ETH lost 40%. March: same structure. Same Stoch RSI signal. $2K is the last support before the pattern completes.”
Graded on the branch he drew, this one worked. Ether was $2,203; $2,000 gave way nine days later, on 28 March, and the pattern completed into $1,566 (−28.9%) on 26 June — not far off the −40% November analogue he cited. It has since recovered to $2,666 (+21.0%), but the rollover he warned about was real, and it was called before the break.
𝕏 Post“$2K is the last support before the pattern completes.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated thesis against real price, not his own scoring. Several posts are two-branch conditionals (“hold it / lose it”) and X truncates long posts, so we quote and grade only the text the syndication endpoint returns verbatim. The two YouTube calls are graded on the title alone. Open marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Esta es la parte del expediente que más importa con una cuenta de gráficos de alto volumen: el negocio público de Merlijn es atención y promoción, vendidas desde el mismo perfil que publica el análisis. Nada de esto está oculto — está todo en su propia página de enlaces — pero debe ir junto a los gráficos.
Su página pública de enlaces vende “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” e invita a escribir “for Business/Partnerships”. Por tanto, los proyectos pueden comprar alcance a la misma cuenta que publica análisis de mercado. Asuma que cualquier token o plataforma nombrada en una publicación podría ser una relación comercial salvo que él diga lo contrario.
La misma página lo presenta como consultor y coach de negocio con una oferta de “Book a Strategy Call”: audiencia convertida en honorarios, lo que premia el volumen de publicación y la confianza, no la prudencia.
Su cuenta de X lleva una insignia de afiliación a @cryptorover. Dos cuentas de una misma operación que coinciden entre sí no son dos confirmaciones independientes: cuéntelo una vez, no dos.
Su canal de YouTube declara el proyecto como “turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, documentado en directo. Eso es divulgación, no un conflicto, pero significa que detrás de publicaciones estructuralmente alcistas sobre Bitcoin hay una cartera estructuralmente alcista en Bitcoin.
“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
07 Jun 2026 · la hoja de ruta que falló en ambas patas“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
27 Jul 2026 · cuatro días antes del mínimo real de ETH“$60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
01 Apr 2026 · la línea de la cruz de la muerte que se rompió sin desplomeCitas tomadas de sus propias fuentes públicas; son opiniones expresadas, no recomendaciones.
Publica vídeos de Bitcoin casi a diario en un canal mucho más pequeño de lo que su audiencia en X sugiere. Subidas recientes, con fechas del feed del canal:
Bitcoin’s Next Drop Is Coming… But Bears Are Making A Huge MistakeCaída a corto plazo, alcista a largo: justo la postura que grafica este dosier.10 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Is Repeating The 2022 Bottom… Here’s What Comes NextEl fractal de 2022 que impulsa la mayoría de sus llamadas de 2026.08 Sep 2026
Bitcoin’s New Parabolic Cycle Has OFFICIALLY BegunLa tesis alcista de ciclo, enunciada sin nivel.07 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Just Flashed A MAJOR Buy Signal Before Jackson HoleEncuadre macro antes del rally de agosto.28 Aug 2026Un analista neerlandés de gráficos cripto que publica como @MerlijnTrader para unos 380.000 seguidores en X, con un canal de YouTube más pequeño (16.2K suscriptores). Su apellido no es público. Es conocido por publicaciones en mayúsculas con un único gráfico que comparan el mercado actual con un año pasado — 2017, 2018, 2022 — y nombran un nivel que decide el resultado.
Mixed, and that is measurable. Of twelve dated 2026 calls charted here, three played out (including well-timed July bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether), five are still open, and four went against him — most clearly a June road-map for a drop to $50,000 that instead saw Bitcoin rally 42%. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Vende promoción abiertamente: su página pública de enlaces lista “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages”, invita a mensajes para negocio y alianzas, y ofrece llamadas de estrategia pagadas. Su cuenta de X también lleva una insignia de afiliación a @cryptorover. Asuma que un proyecto nombrado puede ser una relación comercial salvo que se indique lo contrario.
Analogía fractal más un nivel de decisión. Superpone la estructura del gráfico de un año pasado sobre el presente — acumulación de Wyckoff, cruces dorada y de la muerte, Stochastic RSI, un panel de ~30 señales de pico de ciclo — y luego se compromete con un número como “$60K is the decision” o “DCA zone $48–59K”. Eso lo hace fácil de comprobar; también significa que cuando el análogo falla, la conclusión queda invertida y no simplemente adelantada.
Merlijn opera por analogía: encontrar el año que este gráfico está copiando y después defender un nivel. ¿Cuánto se acerca tu instinto? Mídelo de verdad con un Trader Passport.
En cualquier caso, la única prueba honesta es una en vivo. Pon a prueba tu lectura con datos reales de mercado — sin capital en riesgo — en un torneo gratuito de BuyCrypt con premios reales.
Análisis informativo y educativo construido estrictamente con material público: sus propias publicaciones fechadas en X, capturadas textualmente con sus marcas de tiempo y enlazadas en cada llamada, más su canal y su página de enlaces públicos. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de inversión. Las cifras son aproximadas y cambian constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Merlijn? Enviar una corrección →
Cuentas verificadas · Fuentes citadas arriba · Metodología de puntuación · Actualizado 29 September 2026
