@ki_young_ju
The on-chain analyst who runs the data terminal half the market quotes — and who changes his mind in public, loudly, with a timestamp. Inside thirteen weeks in 2026 he called an 18-month bear market, told holders relief was coming, then declared the bear cycle over. The relief call paid, the bear call has since gone against him, and the all-clear is still running. He is worth tracking anyway, because he leaves the whole record standing — including the parts that make him look bad.
En resumen. Ki Young Ju cofundó CryptoQuant en 2019 y la convirtió en uno de los proveedores de datos on-chain más citados del sector. Su análisis público se apoya en una sola idea: el Realized Cap — cuánto dinero real ha entrado de verdad en Bitcoin — medido contra la capitalización de mercado para distinguir un mercado alcista de uno bajista. Esa lente le hizo llegar temprano a Terra-Luna y a FTX. También le ha llevado a desdecirse repetidamente y en público, sobre todo en 2025, cuando declaró terminado el ciclo alcista, pidió disculpas siete semanas después y vio a Bitcoin marcar un nuevo máximo. El mismo patrón reaparece en 2026: el 29 de mayo, mercado bajista hasta 2027; el 25 de agosto, «The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.». No es un analista de niveles — es un analista de regímenes, y los regímenes se le dan la vuelta.
Nacido en 1992 y formado en la Pohang University of Science and Technology, Ki trabajó como ingeniero de software antes de fundar en 2018 el grupo coreano de investigación blockchain Planet B y de cofundar CryptoQuant con excompañeros de universidad en abril de 2019. La empresa vende datos on-chain y de flujos de exchanges a fondos y traders — el diario surcoreano Chosun Daily la llamó el «Bloomberg de las criptomonedas» — y en julio de 2022 firmó como proveedora de datos de CME Group. La reputación de CryptoQuant se construyó sobre dos avisos tempranos: flujos inusuales de Bitcoin antes del colapso de Terra-Luna en mayo de 2022 y, más tarde, señales en torno a FTX.
Su método público es deliberadamente estrecho. El Realized Cap trata las monedas que entran en una cartera como compra y las que salen como venta, dando una estimación del capital realmente desplegado en Bitcoin; compararlo con la capitalización de mercado le dice si el dinero nuevo está moviendo el precio. Cuando entradas grandes no levantan el precio, lo llama mercado bajista. Cuando entradas pequeñas lo levantan mucho, lo llama alcista. Es un marco limpio, y produce lecturas de régimen muy seguras.
También produce giros, y no los esconde. El 17 de marzo de 2025 publicó «#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action», lo amplió en un largo hilo sobre Realized Cap el 5 de abril y, el 9 de mayo de 2025, escribió: «Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… I apologize for the incorrect prediction.» Bitcoin marcó un nuevo máximo histórico aquel octubre — la prensa sitúa el pico cerca de los 126.000 $. Ese fallo queda fuera de la ventana de precios que se grafica abajo, pero merece constar; y las declaraciones de 2026 muestran el mismo reflejo: el 1 de febrero de 2026 escribió que «this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation», el 29 de mayo alargó el mercado bajista hasta principios de 2027 y, para el 21–25 de agosto, ya había llamado el suelo y el final del ciclo bajista. Léelo como una opinión bien instrumentada que se actualiza rápido — no como un pronóstico al que puedas atarlo.
Sources: x.com/ki_young_ju · cryptoquant.com · Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com News coverage
Regímenes on-chain, no niveles de precio. Ki casi nunca publica un objetivo. Publica un estado de mercado — alcista, bajista, lateral, suelo puesto — derivado del Realized Cap frente a la capitalización de mercado, del beneficio/pérdida de los tenedores de corto plazo, del Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator (construido con MVRV, NUPL y SOPR contra sus medias de 365 días) y de los datos de flujos de exchanges y ETF. La fortaleza es que son afirmaciones falsables, fechadas y basadas en datos reales en vez de en intuiciones. La debilidad es el timing: una señal de régimen puede ser estructuralmente correcta y aun así llegar seis semanas antes o después, y su propio historial muestra que dará la vuelta al régimen en doce semanas en cuanto giren los datos.
Bullish — he called the bottom on 21 August and declared the bear cycle over on 25 August, and has pressed further since: on 21 September he pointed to BTC reclaiming its 365-day average at $83K as the end-of-bear line, the next day posted “Bitcoin bull run just started, but no one cares.”, and on 23 September published the analysts' STRONG BUY consensus for Ethereum. He has also tempered the upside — a 3–5x cycle, not another 10x parabola. It is all a reversal of the bear-into-2027 stance he held in May, so treat the bias as live and revisable rather than settled.
Twelve dated, in-window statements — eleven of them his own X posts, one a quote confirmed on Bitcoin.com News — charted against real price. He is a regime caller, so we judge each one on what price actually did next rather than on a level being hit. The sample is deliberately unflattering in places: it opens with an on-chain all-clear posted 37% above the summer low. For the record beyond this chart window, his headline 2025 call — “#Bitcoin bull cycle is over”, March 2025 — was wrong enough that he publicly apologised for it seven weeks later.
“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.”
An on-chain all-clear — not a target, but a published read that forced selling had stopped. It went out at $80,482, and what came next was the opposite of relief: BTC fell −27.2% to $58,566 by 1 July. Until 22 September no close since had been even 1% above it; that day BTC reached $86,597 (+7.6%), and it is +5.4% today. Four months mostly underwater after an all-clear is still a miss. The indicator was doing what it says on the tin; as a signal of what came next it failed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
The mechanism — profit-taking cascades drag investor PnL for ~18 months — was right for five weeks: BTC fell −20.5% from $73,652 to the $58,566 low. Then it wasn't. He abandoned the thesis himself on 25 August, roughly five months before his own deadline, and on 21 September described BTC's reclaim of its 365-day average as the line everyone watches for the end of the bear. BTC has since closed as high as $86,597 (+17.6%) and is +15.1% today. Early 2027 has not arrived, but the caller has withdrawn the call and price has gone the other way, so we now log it against — changed from open on 4 October.
𝕏 Post“…the bear market could last until early 2027.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways.”
In a long thread telling @saylor to pause buying, he argued Strategy's bid was “more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst” and that weak hands had not been flushed. From $62,662 the flush never came: the deepest close after it was −6.5%, and BTC then ran +38.2% to $86,597. It is +35.3% today. The recovery he said needed a reset happened without one.
𝕏 Post“The market may need a proper reset…” — @ki_young_ju on Strategy's BTC buying↗ x.com“If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.”
Timing this well is rare: $58,566 is the lowest daily close in the entire window, and BTC has not closed below it since — +44.8% to today, +47.9% at the high. But read the call, not the chart. It is conditional on Bitcoin absorbing $1T+ in realized cap, we have seen no evidence that it has, and $84,793 is not a parabola. On 22 September he narrowed it himself, saying he expects this cycle to deliver “3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally”. Structurally “still early, not invalidated” — so, open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
A soft call with a hard shape: relief is coming, but not yet. Both halves landed. From $63,193 the deepest close after was only −1.4%, and the relief arrived well inside “the next few months” — BTC has since run +37.0% to $86,597 and is +34.2% today. Note he framed it as a bear-market bounce, not a trend change; the trend change is what he claimed six weeks later.
SourceCryptoquant CEO Tells Bitcoin Holders to “Hang in There” — Bitcoin.com News↗ news.bitcoin.com“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.”
Called into strength at $73,021 — the risky way to call a bottom — and it has held: not one daily close below that price since, +18.6% at the high and +16.1% today. He hedged with “might see a dip”; the deepest close since was $75,590, still above his call. The obvious caveat is that this is the same analyst who, twelve weeks earlier, put the bear market's end in 2027.
𝕏 Post“Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.”
Four words, posted at $78,974 when CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time since early October. Price dipped −4.3% to $75,590 by 16 September, then broke out: +9.7% at the $86,597 high on 22 September, +7.4% today. On 21 September he posted that BTC had reclaimed its 365-day average at $83K — the line he called the one everyone watches for the end of the bear. Encouraging, but a bear cycle is not proven over in six weeks, and BTC is still well below its 2025 peak — this is open.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.”
Two days after declaring the bear cycle over, he put a shape on what comes next: the top of this cycle gets made by non-US institutional flows, with Korea — no spot ETF, no foreign products for retail, companies locked out of exchanges — as the example of the demand still sitting on the sidelines. It went out at $79,018. Since then the low is $75,590 (−4.3%), the high $86,597 (+9.6%), and BTC is +7.3% today. Nothing in five weeks of price tests a claim about where a cycle peak originates, so it is logged open — but note the assumption underneath it: that this bull cycle has a peak still ahead of it.
𝕏 Post“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY”
Four words and a chart. Read it precisely: he is publishing the analyst-sentiment gauge, not his own target — but it is a bullish signal posted under his name. From $79,093 it cost money first, −4.4% to $75,590 on 16 September, then paid: +9.5% to the $86,597 high on 22 September and +7.2% today. A buy signal that is up within four weeks has done its job, so we now log it played out — changed from open on 4 October. Whether the regime behind it holds is what his 25 August call is for.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“BTC reclaimed the 365MA at $83K and is sitting above $84K. That's the line everyone's been watching for the end of the bear. If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.”
A level and a condition: the 365-day moving average at $83K, and if it holds, FOMO follows. Posted at 09:36 UTC, when by his own account BTC was already above $84K; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $81,169, so read the +4.5% to today with that head start in mind. The line has held: the lowest daily close since is $83,479. The FOMO is less clear — BTC closed at $86,597 (+6.7%) the next day and has drifted sideways below it since, at $84,793 today. Held, not yet chased: open.
𝕏 Post“If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.”
His most specific cycle call yet, in a long post arguing that institutional ownership now damps both extremes: a 3–5x bull cycle instead of a 10x+ parabola, and a milder bear market after it. The post gives no base price and no date for the 3–5x, so there is no level to grade yet. It went out on the day of the window's highest close, $86,597; BTC has since closed as low as $83,479 (−3.6%) and is −2.1% today. A claim about the shape of a multi-year cycle cannot be settled in twelve days — open. It also narrows his 1 July talk of “another parabolic bull run”.
𝕏 Post“3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY”
The same CryptoQuant analyst-consensus gauge as his 8 September Bitcoin post, this time for Ethereum — a published sentiment reading, not his own target, but posted under his name. It went out at 08:44 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $2,753, which has turned out to be ETH's highest close since. The low is $2,668 (−3.1%) and ETH is −2.2% today. Eleven days in, it has not paid — open.
𝕏 Post“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the linked X post or article. Fresh calls can flip as the cycle resolves — the newest call here, 23 September, has eleven days of data behind it and is logged open for exactly that reason.
Sus incentivos son inusualmente legibles: vende datos, no señales. Eso elimina el problema del shilling de tokens, pero introduce otro — el producto de CryptoQuant es analítica on-chain, y sus publicaciones son el escaparate.
El negocio es una terminal de datos de pago — analítica on-chain y de flujos de exchanges vendida a fondos, mesas de trading y minoristas en planes por niveles. Su análisis gratuito en X es el embudo de marketing de ese producto, lo que está mejor alineado que los grupos de pago, pero sigue siendo un interés.
CryptoQuant suministra datos on-chain comercialmente, incluido un acuerdo de proveedor con CME Group firmado en julio de 2022. La distribución institucional premia ser citado, y eso favorece las afirmaciones rotundas y citables.
Su recorrido está en la empresa que cofundó, no en una cartera de trading que publique. No lleva un servicio de señales ni promociona tokens — así que cuando cambia de régimen no hay una renovación de suscripción en juego.
“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
29 May 2026 · el reloj bajista que después abandonó“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
10 Jul 2026 · la que sí salió, y antes de tiempo“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.”
09 May 2025 · la rectificación pública — fuera de esta ventana, en el registro igualmenteCitas tomadas de sus propias fuentes públicas; opiniones expresadas, no recomendaciones.
No hay videoteca que enlazar. Ki no publica pódcast ni tiene canal propio — su producción pública son publicaciones en X y las notas de research de CryptoQuant; todo lo demás son entrevistas de terceros. Por eso mismo cada declaración de arriba es una cita con fecha y enlace, no un clip.
Cofundador y CEO de CryptoQuant, una empresa surcoreana de datos on-chain fundada en 2019 que vende analítica de blockchain y de flujos de exchanges a fondos y traders. Es uno de los analistas on-chain más citados del sector y publica lecturas del mercado de Bitcoin para unos 434.000 seguidores en X.
No está verificado públicamente. Su patrimonio está ligado a su participación en CryptoQuant, una empresa privada que no publica cifras financieras. Ignora cualquier cifra concreta que veas citada — ninguna está confirmada.
Yes, and he says so himself. In March 2025 he declared the bull cycle over; on 9 May 2025 he posted “Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong” and apologised. Bitcoin then made a new all-time high. In 2026 he called a bear market lasting into early 2027 on 29 May, then declared the bear cycle over on 25 August. Of the twelve dated 2026 calls charted above, three played out, six are still open and three went against him.
El Realized Cap — una estimación on-chain de cuánto capital real ha entrado en Bitcoin — comparado con la capitalización de mercado, más el beneficio/pérdida de los tenedores de corto plazo, los flujos de exchanges y ETF y el Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator de CryptoQuant. Identifica regímenes de mercado (alcista, bajista, suelo puesto) en lugar de niveles u objetivos de precio.
Ki cambia de opinión cuando cambian los datos, y asume el coste reputacional en público. ¿Cuánto se parece tu instinto? Mídelo de verdad con un Trader Passport.
En cualquier caso, la única prueba que lo zanja es tu propio historial. Opera con datos de mercado reales — sin arriesgar capital — en un torneo gratuito de BuyCrypt con premios de verdad.
Análisis informativo y educativo basado estrictamente en materiales públicos — sus propias publicaciones fechadas en X y coberturas fechadas de terceros, enlazadas en cada declaración. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de inversión. Las cifras son aproximadas y cambian constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Ki? Enviar una corrección →
Cuentas verificadas · Fuentes citadas arriba · Metodología de puntuación · Actualizado 4 October 2026
