Josh Olszewicz

@CarpeNoctom

≈149K seguidores en XCanary Capital jefe de trading8 predicciones fechadas representadas aquí

An Ichimoku chartist who runs trading at the crypto ETF issuer Canary Capital and posts short, dated chart calls to about 149,000 followers. In 2026 his turns were mostly well timed. On 29 May, with Bitcoin at $73,652, he said it was probably headed for a 200-week moving average test, and six days later it was there. His April title “Here's How $BTC Hits ATH in 2026” is still a long way off, his September “M top” call was followed by a breakout, and he dropped his 6 October “rdy to rock” setup himself the next day.

En resumen. Josh Olszewicz trades Bitcoin and Ether from the Ichimoku cloud and classic chart patterns, and posts the setups on X as @CarpeNoctom. On our sample of eight in-window posts the record is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The best call was the bearish turn of 29 May: from $73,652 he expected a test of the 200-week moving average, which came on 4 June at $64,047 (−13.0%). He also called the July inverse head-and-shoulders target of 70k+ and Ether's August breakout (+32.2% in two weeks). The misses were the 11 September M top, which pointed to $70k–$72k while Bitcoin went to $86,597 instead, and a 6 October 4-hour breakout call that he abandoned the next day (“so much for that”). His 20 April title, a path to a new all-time high in 2026, is still open.

Contexto — qué está documentado y qué no

Josh Olszewicz es VP y jefe de trading en Canary Capital, una gestora de activos estadounidense que emite ETF de criptomonedas. Su biografía en X dice “Canary.Capital PM & Head of Trading”. Según la propia página del equipo de Canary, antes dirigió la investigación cripto en BraveNewCoin, fue gestor de carteras en Techemy Capital y ocupó el cargo de jefe de investigación en Valkyrie Investments. Antes de las criptomonedas enseñó ciencias de laboratorio a nivel universitario, y tiene un BS en Biología Humana y un MS en Biotecnología. Está en X como @CarpeNoctom desde marzo de 2009.

Su producción sigue un ritmo semanal: un video “Setup Sunday”, un “Macro Monday”, un programa “Alt Coins” y una transmisión en directo los viernes, “Broad Market Review”, además de publicaciones semanales sobre los datos Commitments of Traders (CoT) de CME y los flujos de los ETF spot de EE. UU. La mayoría de sus publicaciones de gráficos cubren acciones además de cripto. Esta página evalúa solo sus predicciones sobre Bitcoin y Ether, porque son los precios que sigue el sitio.

He also discloses a miss of his own. On 3 June 2026 he reposted his March 2018 post “ya, still on track for 33k by July” with the line “Heroes get remembered but bad calls never die”. Bitcoin did not come close to $33k in 2018. His weekly CoT posts read the data as bearish for most of the window, including through the July–September rally. We treat those as data reports, not price calls, and do not chart them. Eight posts qualified as calls, and several more were examined and excluded. Each is listed with its reason in the verified corpus.

Sources: x.com/CarpeNoctom (captured via api.fxtwitter.com and X syndication) · canary.capital/about · canaryetfs.com · linktr.ee/carpenoctom · YouTube oEmbed

Estilo y filosofía de trading

La nube decide. Olszewicz lee la tendencia en la nube de Ichimoku (“kumo”): por encima es alcista, por debajo es bajista, y una ruptura a través de ella es una señal. La combina con patrones clásicos: hombro-cabeza-hombro e invertido, dobles techos (“M”), cuñas descendentes y objetivos de Fibonacci. La mayoría de las publicaciones son una línea y un gráfico, con un objetivo o un nivel de invalidación. Eso las hace fáciles de evaluar. Su fortaleza es girar con la tendencia: en esta muestra se volvió bajista justo antes de la caída de junio y de nuevo alcista antes de la ruptura de agosto. Su debilidad es el patrón que nunca se activa: el techo en M de septiembre confundió una pausa con un techo.

Historial — sus llamadas, en gráfico

Eight dated posts from @CarpeNoctom, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The record is strongest at the turns: the 29 May call for a 200-week moving average test, the 5 June “no bottom yet”, the 20 July 70k+ target and Ether's August breakout all played out. The 11 September M top and the 6 October “rdy to rock” setup went against, and the April all-time-high title is still open.

Outcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is a verbatim X post, linked on its card and reproduced in full in the verified corpus. X's API writes the BTC and ETH token tags as “bitcoin:native” and “ethereum:native”, and we quote them as returned. We did not chart his weekly CoT and ETF-flow posts (data reports), hedged posts (“bull flag possible”), a 3 May post that was conditional on the low holding (it did not hold), or a later Puell Multiple post that restated the July bull case and would have scored as a win. From the 20 October refresh we also left out hedged or pattern-watch posts: “4h $BTC FW potential” (17 September), “1D $ETH unconfirmed hidden bull div” (8 October) and “$ETH H&S watch” (14 October), along with ratio charts such as SOL/BTC and ETH/BTC. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks, so an intraday post is measured from that day's mark. The 6 October card is graded from his own follow-ups, “looked*” the same day and “well, so much for that, on to the next trade” on 7 October, and from price. The “$1,000 invertidos en esa llamada” line assumes buying on the post date; for the bearish 29 May and 11 September cards, that line is not a short. Near-term marks can flip.

Cómo se gana dinero aquí — y dónde están los conflictos

Las publicaciones y transmisiones de Olszewicz son gratuitas. Su principal ingreso es su empleo, y su página de enlaces incluye un enlace a un exchange. Esto es lo que encontramos.

Ideas distintivas

Citas tomadas de sus propias fuentes públicas; son opiniones expresadas, no recomendaciones.

Biblioteca de contenido

Olszewicz transmite en YouTube (@carpenoctom), en X y en Twitch, y publica cada programa en X. El “Broad Market Review” de los viernes cubre cripto, macro y acciones. Transmisiones recientes que pudimos verificar:

Broad Market Review: Drop It Like Its HotTransmitido el día de su predicción del techo en M.11 Sep 2026Broad Market Review: Breakout ConfirmedLa ruptura de Bitcoin en abril, tres días antes del video del máximo histórico.17 Apr 2026Broad Market Review - Home on the Choppy RangeBitcoin atascado en su rango a principios de abril.3 Apr 2026

Respuestas claras

¿Cuánto se parece tu estilo?

Olszewicz deja que la nube decida. ¿Qué tan cerca está tu instinto? Mídelo de verdad con un Pasaporte de Trader.

Análisis informativo y educativo basado estrictamente en materiales públicos: publicaciones fechadas de X capturadas desde los endpoints públicos de X y las fuentes enlazadas en cada predicción. No constituye asesoramiento financiero ni de inversión. Las cifras son aproximadas y cambian constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Josh? Enviar una corrección →

Cuentas verificadas · Fuentes citadas arriba · Metodología de puntuación · Actualizado 20 October 2026