@GertvanLagen
Un ingeniero neerlandés convertido en chartista que sostiene una sola idea enorme: Bitcoin está dentro de la onda final de un superciclo que empezó en 2009, y esa onda termina cerca de $400,000–$450,000. Todo lo que publica es esa tesis, reescrita cada semana, con el nivel que vigila puesto por escrito — que es justo lo que permite calificarla.
En resumen. Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen, roughly 125,000 followers, on X since December 2009) is one of crypto's most persistent Elliott Wave analysts. His X bio gives the whole framing: “MSc Systems and Control | 🇳🇱 | Macro Strategist | NFA | Strate𝔾”. Since April 2026 he has published a weekly letter, the Strate𝔾 Update, that walks the same route every time — macro pulse, then Bitcoin, then altcoins, stocks, forex — and lands on a wave count pointing at a blow-off top around $400k–$450k. The record below is the honest shape of that: his most bullish week, 5 May, landed six days before Bitcoin's May peak and was followed by a 26.6% collapse; from 17 June through 15 August he repeatedly refused to call it a bear market, and on the day he said the cycle-bottom trendline was being tested Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further before rallying more than a third; and the $82.8k line he made the whole question in September finally broke on 22 September. The supercycle target itself is still roughly 5x away.
Van Lagen es neerlandés y se describe, en la única biografía que ha firmado de verdad, como MSc in Systems and Control trabajando de estratega macro: la bio de la cuenta de X que mantiene desde el 4 de diciembre de 2009. No ofrece fondo, ni firma, ni historial auditado; lo que tiene es una década de gráficos públicos de ondas de Elliott y, desde el 22 de abril de 2026, una carta semanal bajo el nombre Strate𝔾 que fija esos gráficos a fechas.
Su método es inusualmente legible para el cripto-X. Cada Strate𝔾 Update abre con el mismo aviso — “The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don't take it as financial advice.” — y luego va de arriba abajo: política de la Fed, petróleo e inflación, el Russell 2000 como su medidor de risk-on y solo después Bitcoin, donde proyecta el conteo de ondas sobre dos líneas de tendencia largas: abajo, la que une el mínimo del mercado bajista de 2018, el mínimo del Covid de 2020 y el de 2022; arriba, una línea secular cerca de $450K. Los niveles se repiten durante meses — $66k, luego $82.8k — porque la estructura que describe se mueve despacio.
El problema de honestidad de un conteo de ondas de varios años es que casi nunca falla en una fecha concreta, así que conviene dejar por escrito su fallo más citado. El 9 de marzo de 2024 publicó: “By printing an ATH, BTC price doubled within 10, 18 or 84 days. A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.” U.Today lo tituló al día siguiente como “Bitcoin (BTC) at $200,000 Is More Feasible Than You Think.” Bitcoin nunca ha cotizado a $200,000 — según sus propias cartas, el ciclo hizo techo en $126k. La misma disciplina de objetivos que hace comprobables sus niveles semanales produce también cifras de titular que no han llegado.
Sources: x.com/GertvanLagen (posts captured verbatim via the X syndication endpoint) · gertvanlagen.substack.com (publicly-served text of dated Strate𝔾 Update editions) · U.Today coverage used only to date and locate the 2024 post
Estructura de ondas de Elliott sobre un pulso macro. Van Lagen cuenta ondas — impulsos, planas expandidas, diagonales expansivas — y las cuelga de líneas de tendencia de muchos años, no de indicadores. El suelo de Bitcoin, en su marco, es la línea azul que une el mínimo de 2018, el mínimo del Covid de 2020 y el mínimo del mercado bajista de 2022, reforzada por una EMA/SMA de 210,000 bloques (halving); el techo es la línea secular que ahora sitúa cerca de $450K. Alrededor hay una lista macro repetible — la senda de la Fed, el petróleo como coste de entrada de la economía, el ISM y el empleo, y el Russell 2000 como señal de risk-on que, según él, lidera a Bitcoin en la rotación. La fortaleza es que nombra el nivel que lo decide ($74k, $66k, $82.8k) y lo repite hasta que se rompe. La debilidad es el desajuste de horizontes: un conteo que se resuelve en $400k no dice nada sobre una caída del 26% por el camino, y él siguió estructuralmente alcista justo a través de la que contiene este historial.
Estructuralmente alcista, con insistencia. En toda la ventana no viró ni una sola vez hacia un pronóstico bajista — como mucho llamó a la caída una sacudida dentro de una consolidación — así que lee sus niveles semanales como timing dentro de una tesis larga permanente, no como una visión de dos caras.
Nine dated calls, all of them his own: two posts from @GertvanLagen captured verbatim from X, seven from dated editions of his Strate𝔾 Update. The oldest, 4 March, has since rolled out of the CoinGecko price window and is charted from the window's first day. An honest caveat on selection — the weekly letter is a paid newsletter, and what is charted here is the portion Substack serves publicly (the subtitle and the opening of each section, which is where he states the week's thesis and the level he is watching). The paywalled remainder is not quoted, and it may contain qualifications this page cannot see. The shape that emerges: he was wrong at the top — his most bullish letter, 5 May, came six days before Bitcoin's May peak — and right through the bottom, refusing a bear-market call from 17 June onward and naming the cycle-bottom trendline on 15 August, within 0.2% of the low that followed. The through-line, a wave-5 blow-off at $400k–$450k, is roughly 5x away and is logged open, not correct.
“This week, the $82.8k lower high was finally broken with a strong move higher, shifting the structure from a downtrend to a broken downtrend. This creates a potential double-bottom setup, with the red horizontal line as the neckline and a lower-timeframe target around $120k.”
The week his $82,800 line finally broke, he turned it into a pattern: a double bottom with a lower-timeframe target around $120,000, with BTC at $84,076. So far it is holding but not going: the dip since was only $83,479 (−0.7%) on 29 September — still above the $82.8k he says now has to hold as support — and the best close is $86,490 (+2.9%) on 5 October. At $84,009 (−0.1%) the target is another +42.8% away, so this is logged open.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 39 | Q3 | 2026, “BTC clears $82.8k breaking the 1-year downtrend (!)”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“Ethereum set to print higher high on weekly chart.”
The headline thesis of that week's letter, stated in its subtitle with ETH at $2,515. It printed: after a −4.7% dip to $2,397 on the 16th, Ethereum ran to $2,775 (+10.4%) on 22 September — the highest price in the whole window — and sits at $2,608 (+3.7%). A small, precise call that did what he said within ten days.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 37 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 12 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“the $82,8k level really needs to be cleared first, for BTC to print a Higher High - Breaking the cascade of lower lows and lower highs since the $126k top”
With BTC at $79,671 he refused to call the rally a trend change until $82,800 broke — “The $82.8k lower high was not yet defeated.” It dipped first, −5.1% to $75,590 on 16 September, then cleared the line on 22 September at $86,597 (+8.7%), the highest close of the window and the first higher high since the $126k top. It sits at $84,009 (+5.4%), still above el nivel señalado. He named the trigger, it broke, and price did what he said it would after — now logged played out (it was open on this page until then).
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 36 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 5 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
His best call of the window. With BTC at $62,984 he said it was “currently testing the lower blue trendline connecting the major 2018 bear-market low, the 2020 Covid low, and the 2022 bear-market low” and read it as cycle-bottom confluence. Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further — to $62,844 on 17 August — then ran to $86,597 (+37.5%) by 22 September and trades at $84,009 (+33.4%). The $450K end of that same count remains untouched.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 33 | Q3 | 2026, “Risk-on strengthens as Bitcoin hits historical bottom trend”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“I anticipate this mid-cycle correction to reverse in the orange zone and first blow-off into the blue Euphoria zone, before it enters the actual bear market.”
Called the summer chop a mid-cycle correction due to reverse, with BTC at $63,917. It reversed almost immediately: the deepest dip after was $62,773 (−1.8%) on 2 August, then $86,597 (+35.5%) on 22 September, now $84,009 (+31.4%). The blow-off he framed it against is a $400k target — that part has not happened.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 31 | Q3 | 2026, “Summer Sideways - Extremely boring”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In this regard, I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
The first edition in this window to state it in capitals, with BTC at $65,619 stalling under the $66k resistance he had named. He was right about the regime and early on the price: Bitcoin fell another 10.7% to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — before running to $86,597 (+32.0%) on 22 September and settling at $84,009 (+28.0%). He repeated this line almost verbatim for five straight weeks; this is where it starts.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 25 | Q2 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 17 Jun 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“$ETH is printing a highly complex Expanding Diagonal, consisting of 5 corrective waves in a triangular structure. Wave c of 5 of ⑤ is the final blow-off style impulse, targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k”
Direction right, magnitude nowhere near. From $1,812 Ethereum first fell 13.6% to $1,566 on 26 June, then rallied to $2,775 (+53.2%) on 22 September and sits at $2,608 (+44.0%) — a good call by any normal standard. But the box he named starts at $10,000, which is another +283% from here, and ends at $22,000, +744% away. Logged open: the thesis has not been invalidated and has not paid.
𝕏 Post“Wave c of 5 of ⑤ … targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+. In this section, I will show that both the low- and high-timeframe structures point to this target.”
His most bullish letter of the window, and the worst-timed. BTC was $79,826 and he had just noted it “has now cleared the long-standing $74k resistance!”. Six days later it peaked at $82,018 on 11 May, then fell 26.6% to $58,566 by 1 July. Bitcoin did eventually get past that May high — $86,597 (+8.5%) on 22 September — and is $84,009 (+5.2%) today, but the call pointed up and the next move was a quarter off, and $400k is still +376% away.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 19 | Q2 | 2026, “Bulls need to push through this time!”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close. From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.”
Posted on 4 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. The near-term half worked: Bitcoin ran to $82,018 by 11 May, gave it back to $58,566 (−16.4%) on 1 July, then made the high of the window, $86,597 (+23.7%), on 22 September, and is $84,009 (+20.0%) now. The stated destination is not close: $400k is +376% from today's price. Up 20% is not a wrong call — but it is not the call he made, so it stays open.
𝕏 Post“my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel … at ~$400k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Mar 2026↗ x.comLos resultados son nuestra lectura de su posición declarada frente a cierres diarios reales de CoinGecko, no su propia puntuación. Los precios del texto salen de la misma serie con la que se dibujan los gráficos. Los objetivos de largo plazo cuyo nivel ni siquiera se ha aproximado se registran como abiertos en lugar de contarse como aciertos, y las marcas de corto plazo pueden cambiar según se resuelva el ciclo. Cuando una frase se repite en varias cartas semanales, la tarjeta usa la edición en la que aparece por primera vez dentro de esta ventana.
El negocio es un único boletín de pago, con precio a la vista, más la economía de conferencias que llega con una audiencia de seis cifras. No encontramos grupo de señales, ni token, ni afiliación con exchanges — pero el precio de la carta es el incentivo que conviene conocer, porque la mitad gratuita es la que tiene que sonar urgente.
El Strate𝔾 Update es un semanal de pago. Los objetos de plan que sirve su página pública de suscripción dicen “$26.50 a month” y “$265 a year” (USD, creados en julio de 2025). De las 23 publicaciones de su archivo a 20 de septiembre de 2026, 21 son solo de pago — incluida cada carta de mercado. Lo público es el subtítulo y la apertura de cada sección, que es lo que grafica esta página.
El 26 de mayo de 2026 publicó dos entradas gratuitas: una de la Dutch Blockchain Week subtitulada “Want a ticket? Use my discount code: GertvanLagen15” y otra de Proof of Talk en el Louvre — “I have 10 nomination spots, and I am giving you the opportunity to be part of it!” Ninguna de las dos aclara si el código o las nominaciones llevan asociada una tarifa o comisión.
Lleva años publicando el mismo conteo de ondas hacia $400k–$450k, y la audiencia de la carta está comprada precisamente sobre que ese conteo siga vivo. No es un conflicto oculto — está declarado en cada edición — pero explica la postura: en los siete meses de este historial no dio ni una vez por iniciado un mercado bajista, ni siquiera la semana previa a una caída del 26%.
“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
15 Aug 2026 · dos días antes del mínimo, y acertado“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+.”
05 May 2026 · six days before the May peak“I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
17 Jun 2026 · la frase que repitió cinco semanas seguidas“A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.”
09 Mar 2024 · el fallo que todavía le citanCitas tomadas de sus propias fuentes públicas; son opiniones expresadas, no recomendaciones.
There is no video library to link — van Lagen has no channel of his own. His public output is charts on X and the weekly Strate𝔾 Update on Substack, which is why every call above is a timestamped post or a dated letter rather than a clip. The editions behind seven of the nine cards are public at the links on those cards; the full corpus, with the live verification log, is cited in the sources line.
Un estratega macro y analista de ondas de Elliott neerlandés que publica análisis de gráficos de Bitcoin para unos 125,000 seguidores en X como @GertvanLagen, y que desde abril de 2026 edita un boletín semanal de pago, el Strate𝔾 Update. Su propia bio dice que tiene un MSc in Systems and Control; no revela fondo, firma ni historial auditado.
Su conteo permanente de ondas de Elliott sitúa el techo final de onda 5 de un superciclo iniciado en 2009 en la línea de tendencia superior de su canal — que ha valorado en torno a $400,000 y, en las cartas de agosto de 2026, “currently around $450K”. Ese objetivo ni se ha aproximado: está unas 5x por encima del precio actual, y este dosier lo registra como abierto, no como acertado.
No se conoce públicamente ni es verificable. No revela fondo, firma ni tamaño de posiciones; su único negocio visible es un Substack de pago a $26.50 al mes. Ignora cualquier cifra concreta asociada a su nombre — ninguna está confirmada.
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the record cuts both ways: of nine dated calls we charted, five played out, three are open and one went clearly against him — he was at his most bullish six days before Bitcoin's May peak, and he called the cycle-bottom trendline two days before a local low that undercut him by only 0.2%, ahead of a rally of more than a third. His best-known long-term call, $200k before the April 2024 halving, never happened. Treat his letters as a dated, checkable opinion — never trade them blindly.
Van Lagen se aleja hasta que el ruido desaparece: un conteo de ondas, una línea de tendencia, un destino a años vista. ¿Cuánto se acerca tu instinto? Mídelo de verdad con un Trader Passport.
Ahora ponga su enfoque a trabajar. Pruebe su ventaja con datos de mercado en vivo —sin arriesgar capital— en un torneo gratuito de BuyCrypt con premios reales.
Análisis informativo y educativo basado estrictamente en materiales públicos — sus propias publicaciones fechadas en X y el texto servido públicamente de ediciones fechadas de su boletín, enlazados en cada llamada. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de inversión. Las cifras son aproximadas y cambian constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Gert? Enviar una corrección →
Cuentas verificadas · Fuentes citadas arriba · Metodología de puntuación · Actualizado 7 October 2026
