@caprioleio
El hombre detrás de Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value y Production Cost: métricas que otros analistas le citan de vuelta. Edwards dirige un fondo sistemático de bitcoin y publica los modelos con los que opera, con fecha. Eso lo hace inusualmente verificable: cuando su trabajo de valoración dice «valor profundo», puedes ir a mirar qué hizo el precio después.
En resumen. Charles Edwards fundó Capriole Investments en 2019 y gestiona el Capriole Fund, un fondo sistemático licenciado y auditado. Es conocido no por objetivos de precio, sino por construir las métricas de valoración on-chain que hoy usa buena parte de la industria: Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost, el Bitcoin Yardstick. Su producción pública es un Substack gratuito y un feed denso de gráficos en X. El historial de abajo es mixto de una forma muy reveladora: sus señales lentas de valoración — «esto es una zona de valor, espera al coste de producción» — funcionaron bien durante la caída de 2026, mientras que sus señales rápidas de flujo y momento — absorción institucional, rotación de stablecoins, inflexiones de empresas de tesorería — se dispararon una y otra vez a pocos días de los máximos locales. La misma métrica de flujo institucional lo volvió alcista el 5 de mayo y bajista el 26 de mayo; la mitad que funcionó fue la bajista.
Edwards es fundador y CEO de Capriole Investments, que según su propia web fue «fundada en 2019» y «gestiona el Capriole Fund, un fondo máster licenciado y auditado que da servicio a inversores en más de 25 países», con «un enfoque sistemático de inversión orientado a rentabilidades absolutas a lo largo de los ciclos de mercado». La estructura incluye una limited partnership estadounidense y dos vehículos en las Islas Caimán, con operaciones en Australia. No es un vendedor de señales minoristas: el negocio es el fondo, y los textos públicos son su escaparate.
Su aportación duradera es la medición, no la predicción. Hash Ribbons (capitulación minera), Bitcoin Energy Value y Production Cost (bandas de valor razonable según el coste de minado), el Bitcoin Yardstick y el Dynamic Range NVT son suyos; también los modelos internos que nombra en sus cartas: Trend King, Macro Index, Bitcoin Perps Heat y el Market Hedge Ratio. Como publica las lecturas con fecha, sus llamadas son falsables de un modo en que la mayoría del comentario no lo es, y eso corta en ambas direcciones.
Por honestidad, un fallo documentado que queda fuera de esta ventana de precio: el 2 de octubre de 2025 Cointelegraph informó de que decía que bitcoin «podría dispararse a un nuevo máximo histórico de $150,000» antes de que acabara 2025. No ocurrió: BTC hizo techo cerca de $126,000. Sus llamadas de Hash Ribbons y Energy Value de 2019–2021 también quedan fuera de la ventana de precio de 210 días y no se grafican aquí. Una cifra distinta y muy reciclada de «$280,000» atribuida a un post de 2024 no pudo rastrearse hasta una fuente original, así que no se afirma en ningún punto de esta página.
Sources: caprioleio.substack.com · x.com/caprioleio · capriole.com · dated third-party coverage (NewsBTC, Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, Bitcoin.com News)
Sistemático y guiado por la valoración. Edwards parte del coste de producción y de bandas de valor on-chain en vez de patrones gráficos: dónde está el precio respecto a lo que le cuesta a un minero producir una moneda, qué dice el Yardstick, si la demanda institucional está por encima o por debajo de la emisión diaria. En horizontes largos esto es realmente bueno: le dijo que esperara durante la primavera y que declarara valor en los mínimos de junio. La debilidad aparece en horizontes cortos: sus señales de flujo (absorción institucional, rotación de stablecoins, compras de empresas de tesorería) están formuladas con «típicamente» e «históricamente» sobre muestras pequeñas, y en esta ventana tres alcistas se dispararon a pocos días de un máximo local, aunque que esa misma métrica girara a bajista el 26 de mayo fue un buen aviso, que es justamente la firma de un indicador coincidente y no adelantado. Además nombra sus propios niveles de invalidación, lo cual es disciplina real: dijo «por encima de $71.5K» y lo decía en serio.
Turned constructive in late September. On 16 September he wanted a weekly close back above $78K, and Bitcoin.com News reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view. Once that line was reclaimed his own posts flipped: on 24 September the Bitcoin Yardstick “says: bear market is over” — with a warning of 6-8 weeks of chop first — and on 1 October he called the end of the biggest miner capitulation since 2021 “a macro trend change”. Valuation bull, now leaning bullish near-term as well, chop caveat attached.
Ten dated calls from his own Substack and X feed, plus verbatim quotes in dated press — every one re-fetched live and matched word-for-word against its source before publishing. The split is the story, and it is about horizon, not direction. His valuation work (13 Mar, 9 Jun) was right, the conditional long he defined on 15 April paid and then stopped out exactly where he said it would, on 26 May he reversed on new data and was right again, and the $78K line he drew on 16 September was reclaimed within days. His fast flow signals (1 May, 5 May, 4 Sep) each fired within days of a local high — one on the day itself. His two newest calls, the Yardstick's “bear market is over” (24 Sep) and the end of miner capitulation on his Hash Ribbons (1 Oct), are still open. Five further in-window items were examined and excluded, with the reason for each, in the draft's verified_sources.txt.
“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining and killed 50% of the network overnight in 2021. Hash Rate is seeing its first signs of growth since 2025. This is a macro trend change and how Hash Ribbons should be interpreted in the new era of efficiency.”
His own indicator, read by its author: the miner capitulation Hash Ribbons was built to track is over, and he called it “a macro trend change”. He signed off with “If you know, you know what this means” rather than a level — the end of a capitulation is what his Hash Ribbons buy signal marks, but he gave no target and no timeframe. Posted at 05:37 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $83,576. BTC has since reached $84,842 (+1.5%) and is $84,793 (+1.5%). Three days old — open.
𝕏 Post“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over. Bitcoin has broken out of the deep discount zone. Comparable to 2020 and 2023. Price went up triple digits from here each time.”
His own valuation metric — market cap over hash rate — leaving its deep-discount zone, and the most bullish thing he has said in this window. He pointed to 2020 and 2023, when price more than doubled from here, but set no target, and in the same post warned that “both prior times we did chop around here for another 6-8 weeks before moving up.” So far the caveat is the accurate half: from $84,382 BTC has held a $83,479–$84,842 range (−1.1% to +0.5%) and is $84,793 (+0.5%) ten days on. It is also an about-face from his 16 September warning, made once his $78K line had been reclaimed. Open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto or this could get ugly”
Posted with BTC at $75,590, hours after the US Senate blocked the CLARITY Act. He named one level — a weekly close above $78,000 — and said the alternative gets ugly. The market took the good branch: BTC was back above $78K by 19 September, has held above it at every daily point since, and the day of his post is still the low. It ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and is $84,793 (+12.2%). This was a warning, not a rally forecast, so the credit is for naming the right pivot. Bitcoin.com News had reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view; his own posts since have turned bullish — see the two cards above.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run.”
His Market Hedge Ratio (USDT/BTC market cap, rolling 30 days) hit −20.42% and he said downside was “basically capped” with weeks of upside to run. The next two weeks said otherwise: from $81,265 on 4 September BTC fell −7.0% to $75,590 by the 16th. The upside did come, but late — BTC first traded above his entry on 22 September, 18 days on, at $86,597 (+6.6%), and sits at $84,793 (+4.3%). Graded against on what he claimed for the weeks that followed: a 7% drawdown first is not capped downside.
SourceIs the Bitcoin Bottom In? 2 Analysts Say Yes From Separate Charts — Yahoo Finance / BeInCrypto↗ finance.yahoo.com“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost. Miners are now just breaking even on average. The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
His own cost-of-mining model, used as intended: at $63,069 he marked the $50K–$63K band as the historical long-term value zone. It worked. BTC dipped only −7.1% to $58,566 on 1 July — inside the band he named — then ran +37.3% to $86,597 by 22 September and holds $84,793 (+34.4%). The best call on this page.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“That didn't last long. Institutions are once again dumping on us. … Hard to get meaningful price improvement while this metric is in the red.”
Twenty-one days after the $96K note, the same institutional-flow metric flipped negative and so did he. That call worked: from $77,258 BTC fell −24.2% to $58,566 by 1 July and was never more than +5.2% above his post until 22 September — four months on — when it reached $86,597 (+12.1%); it sits at $84,793 (+9.8%). Credit for reversing fast on new data — but read it against the card below, because it is one indicator contradicting itself inside three weeks, which is the honest case for treating it as coincident rather than predictive.
Source“Institutions Dumping Again”: Charles Edwards Warns ETF Outflows Are Crushing Bitcoin Momentum — Yahoo Finance / CCN↗ finance.yahoo.com“Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we've typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases. That would take us to around $96K.”
His most specific call in the window, and his worst — with the number in his own newsletter, not a reporter's arithmetic. Posted six days before the May high. From $79,826 BTC gained just +2.7% to $82,018 on 11 May against the “double digit returns” the analogue promised, then fell −26.6% to $58,566; it sits at $84,793 (+6.2%) five months later. $96,000 was never reached — even the 22 September high of $86,597 is 9.8% short of it. The same issue reported Capriole's Trend King as “leverage long Bitcoin”, so this was his positioning, not just his commentary.
Source“Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin” — Charles Edwards, Substack (5 May 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April. These inflections have been very bullish in the past. Not many samples to go by, but could this time be similar?”
Treasury-company buying bounced off extreme lows and he flagged the inflection as historically bullish — while openly noting the thin sample. The caveat earned its keep: from $76,297 BTC added just +7.5% to $82,018 over ten days, then gave it all back and more, −23.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. It is $84,793 (+11.1%) five months on, but only by way of that drawdown — not the bullish inflection the post pointed to.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
A conditional call with the invalidation stated up front — bullish above $71.5K, and in the same letter: “if the current move breaks down next week… our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly.” It paid, then stopped out exactly as written. From $74,297 BTC rose +10.4% to $82,018 by 11 May; his $71,500 line broke on 2 June at $71,320, and the flush ran to $58,566 (−21.2%). Now $84,793 (+14.1%). Graded on the trade he defined, not the hold.
Source“Uncharted Waters” — Charles Edwards, Substack (15 Apr 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top. Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it's not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we've seen in prior cycles.”
The useful half of this call was the refusal: value, yes — but not the deep value that gets him excited, which he placed at the production-cost band of roughly $50,000–$60,000. Investors who waited were right. The outcome is as two-sided as the call: from $70,417 BTC first rose +16.5% to $82,018, then fell −16.8% to $58,566 on 1 July — almost symmetric — clipping the top of the band he named before recovering to $86,597 (+23.0%) on 22 September; it is $84,793 (+20.4%) now. He was right that the bottom was closer than the top, and right not to call it. He also said he doubted new all-time highs until quantum risk was addressed by Bitcoin Core — none have come.
SourceCharles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.comOutcomes are our read of his stated claim against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring — Capriole's fund returns are not public and nothing here is a claim about them. Every $ and % figure matches scripts/price_at.py exactly. Dates are utterance dates, not the date a write-up appeared: the 5 May and 4 Sep calls are dated to his own post, which the source states explicitly, and the 26 May quote is an X post reproduced verbatim in same-day coverage. The 24 Sep and 1 Oct posts went up at 04:36 and 05:37 UTC and are charted at that day's 00:00 UTC point. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
El negocio de Edwards es un fondo, no una suscripción ni un grupo de señales: una estructura de incentivos materialmente distinta a la de la mayoría de los nombres de este hub, y que conviene entender en vez de dar por supuesto que es más limpia.
Según capriole.com, Capriole Investments se fundó en 2019 y gestiona un «fondo máster licenciado y auditado» (una LP estadounidense más dos vehículos en Caimán) que da servicio a inversores en más de 25 países. Economía de gestor de fondos — comisiones de gestión y de éxito — no venta minorista.
Su boletín y sus indicadores de TradingView son gratuitos y sin muro de pago, y por eso las llamadas de arriba se pudieron documentar de primera mano. El incentivo evidente: la investigación pública es marketing para el fondo, y un gestor que habla de su cartera habla de una posición viva.
No encontramos suscripción de señales, ni códigos de referido, ni promoción de tokens en el material revisado. La ausencia de pruebas en una muestra de siete meses no es prueba de ausencia, pero es lo que mostró el registro.
El patrimonio gestionado del fondo, la rentabilidad, el tamaño de sus propias posiciones, el número de seguidores y su país de residencia no están confirmados públicamente, así que en esta página no aparece ninguna cifra de ninguno de ellos.
“The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
9 Jun 2026 · su método funcionando — valor en los mínimos“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green.”
4 Sep 2026 · posted on the day of a local top“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
15 Apr 2026 · una llamada con su propia invalidación incorporadaCitas tomadas de sus propias fuentes públicas; son opiniones expresadas, no recomendaciones.
No hay biblioteca de vídeo que enlazar: Edwards no tiene canal propio. Publica un Substack gratuito, cuelga gráficos en X y aparece como invitado en otros sitios, y por eso mismo cada llamada de arriba es un post fechado o una cita textual en cobertura fechada, no un clip. Sus propias cartas detrás de dos de las llamadas son públicas y están enlazadas en sus fichas: «Uncharted Waters» (15 abr 2026) e «Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin» (5 may 2026).
Fundador y CEO de Capriole Investments, un fondo sistemático de activos digitales lanzado en 2019. Es conocido sobre todo por crear métricas on-chain de bitcoin de uso generalizado — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost y el Bitcoin Yardstick — y por publicar su investigación gratis en Substack y en X bajo el alias @caprioleio.
No está verificado públicamente. Dirige un fondo en vez de vender suscripciones, y el patrimonio gestionado, las comisiones y la rentabilidad de Capriole no son públicos. Ignora cualquier cifra concreta: ninguna está confirmada.
His record in this seven-month sample splits cleanly by horizon. Slow valuation work — the March “not deep value yet” refusal and the June production-cost call — was right, the latter ahead of a 37.3% rally, and his 26 May reversal to caution was right too. Fast bullish flow signals were not: three of them in May and September fired within days of local tops, one on the day of a local top. He is a research source, not a trade alert, and nothing here is financial advice.
Sistemática y guiada por la valoración. Valora bitcoin contra el coste de producirlo (Energy Value, Production Cost, con el Electrical Cost como suelo), lo contrasta con métricas on-chain como el Yardstick, el MVRV Z-score y el Dynamic Range NVT, y sigue la demanda institucional frente a la emisión minada diaria. Capriole opera esto mediante modelos internos con nombre — Trend King, Macro Index — y él declara sus niveles de invalidación en público.
Gratis en caprioleio.substack.com y en X como @caprioleio; la firma está en capriole.com y sus indicadores se publican en TradingView. En el material que revisamos no hay ningún grupo de señales de pago.
Edwards valora bitcoin como una materia prima: cuánto cuesta producirlo y cuánto vale respecto a eso. ¿Cuánto se acerca tu instinto? Mídelo de verdad con un Trader Passport.
Ahora ponga su enfoque a trabajar. Pruebe su ventaja con datos de mercado en vivo —sin arriesgar capital— en un torneo gratuito de BuyCrypt con premios reales.
Análisis informativo y educativo basado estrictamente en materiales públicos: sus propias publicaciones fechadas en Substack y X, y cobertura fechada de terceros, enlazadas en cada llamada. Cada cita fue recuperada de nuevo desde su fuente y cotejada textualmente antes de publicarse. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de inversión, ni una afirmación sobre el rendimiento del fondo de Capriole Investments, que no es público. Las cifras son aproximadas y cambian constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Charles? Enviar una corrección →
Cuentas verificadas · Fuentes citadas arriba · Metodología de puntuación · Actualizado 4 October 2026
