@CryptoHayes
Cofundador de BitMEX, hoy CIO de su family office Maelstrom, y el ensayista macro más citable de las criptomonedas. Todo su marco cabe en una frase: la cantidad de dinero fiat, no el precio del dinero, fija el precio de Bitcoin. Lo publica en ensayos fechados, numerados y malhablados con su propio nombre, y por eso mismo se le puede corregir.
En resumen. Arthur Hayes writes the crypto market's most-read macro newsletter, Crypto Trader Digest, and runs Maelstrom, the family office built on his BitMEX fortune. His thesis rarely changes: central banks and treasuries will keep creating fiat to fund deficits, wars and the AI build-out, and Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to that expansion. What changes — sometimes violently — is his timing. Across 2026 he swung from telling readers to sit on their hands, to declaring a new all-time high a “foregone conclusion” at a price Bitcoin would not see again for four months, to admitting in print four weeks later that he had erred, to calling the bottom almost to the day. He publishes both halves, which is more than most.
Hayes nació en 1985, se licenció en economía por Wharton en 2008 y operó derivados de renta variable en Deutsche Bank antes de pasar a Citigroup como trader de delta one en Hong Kong. En 2014 cofundó BitMEX con Ben Delo y Samuel Reed. El swap perpetuo con apalancamiento 100x del exchange se convirtió en la plantilla del trading apalancado en cripto e hizo muy ricos a los tres.
También terminó en un caso penal. Los tres fueron imputados en octubre de 2020, y Hayes se declaró culpable en febrero de 2022 de violar la Bank Secrecy Act: BitMEX no había mantenido un programa de prevención de blanqueo ni de identificación de clientes mientras atendía a clientes estadounidenses. Fue condenado a seis meses de arresto domiciliario y dos años de libertad vigilada y aceptó pagar $10 millones. No cumplió pena de prisión. El presidente Trump indultó a Hayes, Delo y Reed a finales de marzo de 2025. Cualquier lectura de su obra sobre política monetaria y regulatoria debería llevar ese historial al lado.
Desde que dejó BitMEX dirige Maelstrom, un libro de family office solo largo con posiciones tempranas en tokens como Ethena y Ether.fi, y publica Crypto Trader Digest aproximadamente cada una a tres semanas. En agosto de 2026 salió del retiro para ser CEO de Flop Labs, que planea un token, FLOP, como moneda para el cómputo de agentes de IA, anunciado en su propio ensayo del 19 de agosto, con un airdrop de testnet de en torno al 20% del suministro y sin preventa. Ahora es un operador con un token por lanzar, no solo un comentarista.
Sources: cryptohayes.substack.com · x.com/CryptoHayes · dated public interviews and press
Top-down liquidity, expressed through derivatives. Hayes starts from the plumbing — Treasury issuance and buybacks, the Fed's balance sheet, bank credit creation, the BOJ and the yen carry trade, Chinese lending — and treats Bitcoin as the fastest-reacting claim on total fiat supply. He states it plainly: he believes the quantity of money determines Bitcoin's price, not the interest rate. His book is long-only and large, so he expresses caution by refusing to add rather than by going short, and hedges with put spreads and options rather than selling spot. The strength is the framework: he was structurally right that liquidity would expand, and his essays name the mechanism before the market prices it. The weakness is entry timing — a framework that says “eventually” gets used to justify buying anything, and in May 2026 it put him at maximum conviction on a high that held for four months.
Estructuralmente muy alcista: espera que la degradación del fiat se acelere y dice que Maelstrom está en riesgo máximo. Lea la cifra como convicción sobre la dirección, no sobre el timing: su propio historial de 2026 muestra que son dos problemas distintos.
Nine dated calls taken from his own newsletter, not from press paraphrase — his words, his publication dates, charted against real price. Ten Crypto Trader Digest essays fall inside our price window; these are the ones containing an actual BTC or ETH call. The shape of the year is worth stating up front: his best calls were the ones with no number in them. Two bottom calls landed almost to the day. The one time he named a target and a date-free certainty — “retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion” — he published it on 11 May 2026, at a price Bitcoin did not close above again until 22 September — and the levels he named, $90,000 and $126,000, have still not come.
“It behooves punters to limit the use of leverage and wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon.”
He deliberately refused to pick a side — either the fall from $126,000 to $60,000 was the whole move, or Bitcoin dumps further — and told readers to de-leverage and wait for a Fed all-clear. Both halves are still unresolved. The essay now predates our price window, which begins 8 March, so the chart anchors at $67,340 rather than his publication-day price. From there BTC fell −13.0% to $58,566 on 1 July, ran +28.6% to $86,597 on 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+25.6%). So waiting has cost money, but the drawdown he warned about did arrive. Logged open: the AI banking crisis this essay is built on has not happened in the seven and a half months since.
SourceThis Is Fine — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”
Two things he got right at $74,297: the spike he flagged landed inside his band — BTC printed $82,018 on 11 May, +10.4% — and declining to deploy fresh money was right through the summer, because price then fell −21.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. The later recovery went back into his band, to $86,597 on 22 September (+16.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+13.8%). The miss belongs on the same card: in this essay he wrote that he hoped Bitcoin could hold $60,000 in a crash. It did not. BTC closed at $58,566 on 1 July.
SourceNo Trade Zone — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
This is the one that matters. He called a new all-time high a foregone conclusion, said he expected the rally to turn explosive after punching through $90,000, and said he would take Maelstrom's book to maximum risk — and he published it at $82,018, a close Bitcoin did not see again for more than four months. It fell −28.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. The recovery finally cleared his entry in late September, peaking at $86,597 on 22 September (+5.6%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+3.1%) — but $90,000 has still not been reached, and $126,000 has not been retaken. It stays went against: neither level he named has arrived, and anyone who followed him in sat up to 28.6% under water before getting back to roughly flat. He recanted 28 days later, in writing — see the next call.
SourceThe Butterfly Touch — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
Written at $63,274, and it happened in exactly that sequence: BTC dumped −7.4% to $58,566 on 1 July, then pumped +36.9% to $86,597 by 22 September, and holds $84,580 (+33.7%). The same essay contains the sentence most commentators never write — “Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.” Marked played out on price, and worth noting for the correction.
SourceReality Test — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“As credit expands against a deceleration of AI CAPEX spend, Bitcoin will bottom and begin a secular rise.”
Close to exact. From $63,465, the lowest close that followed was $62,844 on 17 August — just −1.0% below him — before a +36.4% run to $86,597 on 22 September; BTC holds $84,580 (+33.3%). The caveat is on the card because it is in the same essay: his guessed levels were too low. He floated a $60,000 to $70,000 chop with $50,000 downside, and Bitcoin instead broke out above his range within a month and never came close to $50,000. Right on direction, wrong on the numbers.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”
His first hard number with a real deadline, and it is still live — 31 December 2026 is under three months out. His own “~2.6x” checks against our data: ETH was $1,859 when he wrote it. It has since run +49.3% to $2,775 on 22 September and holds $2,681 (+44.2%). But $5,000 needs roughly another +87% from here, so he is well behind pace. Logged open, not credited — and note that on 2 September he restated the same end-of-2026 Ether target at $10,000, which is a later call on this page.
SourceSituationship — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Whether Bessent pumps fast or slow, Bitcoin will continue its rally.”
His position then: Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt are the new liquidity tap, the next bull market “just began”, and Maelstrom is back at maximum risk. From the $77,712 he wrote at, BTC first slipped −2.7% to $75,590 on 16 September, then ran +11.4% to $86,597 on 22 September — the highest close in our price window — and holds $84,580 (+8.8%). That is the rally continuing, as he said, with a shallow dip on the way. Marked played out as a direction call; he named no target. One disclosure: we date this to the essay's own timestamp of 24 August. Press covering it called it his 25 August essay; anchored to the 25th ($78,974) the call reads −4.3% at the dip, +9.7% at the high and +7.1% now — the same verdict.
SourceSame Same But Different — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“Maelstrom’s preferred cryptos haven’t changed. Our structural Bitcoin long will anchor the portfolio. The more speculative short-term end of 2026 bets are still Ether ($10k price target), Ethena ($0.5 price target), and Ether.fi ($2 price target).”
Read the word still carefully. Four weeks earlier he put his end-of-2026 Ether target at $5,000; here he writes that nothing has changed and prints $10,000 — the number quietly doubled while the deadline stayed 31 December 2026. We log it as its own call rather than an edit of the older one. ETH was $2,418 the day he published, dipped −1.1% to $2,391 on 3 September, ran +14.8% to $2,775 on 22 September, and holds $2,681 (+10.9%). $10,000 needs roughly another +273% in under three months. Logged open, and it is the most demanding number on this page.
SourceAtención — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.com“This essay should give one confidence that the choppy nature of the crypto markets post the late August mini-pump will end soon. The amount of dollars in the system will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and selected shitcoins will rise in in price.”
His newest essay argues that if the leading AI labs slow down under a “Safety First” banner, the debt that financed their compute goes bad — much of it, he says, sitting on US insurers' books — and Washington must either become the compute buyer of last resort or print money for a bailout. “Either way, we as Bitcoin holders and crypto investors win.” (The doubled “in in” is in the original.) The chart anchors at $81,169 for 21 September; the next daily point is $86,597 (+6.7%), and BTC holds $84,580 (+4.2%). Do not credit him with that jump: he published at 23:07 UTC and our daily points are taken at midnight UTC, so much of the move may have happened before he wrote. Anchored to 22 September instead, the call reads −2.3% now. Twelve days old and with no level named, it is logged open.
SourceSafety First — Crypto Trader Digest (his own newsletter)↗ cryptohayes.substack.comLos resultados son nuestra lectura de su posición declarada frente al precio real, no su propia puntuación. Cada cita se verificó textualmente contra la página del ensayo enlazado, y cada ensayo se descargó dos veces para descartar una descarga defectuosa. Precios y porcentajes proceden de la misma serie de CoinGecko con la que se dibujan los gráficos. Las notas de llamadas con menos de un mes pueden cambiar, y cambiarán.
Hayes no vende señales ni cursos, y regala el boletín, pero es una de las voces con más conflictos de interés del cripto, y esos conflictos cambiaron de forma material en agosto de 2026. La mayoría los declara él mismo; aquí están reunidos en un solo lugar.
Gestiona una cartera de family office solo larga financiada con su fortuna de BitMEX, con posiciones declaradas en Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena y Ether.fi. Cuando escribe que se va a “riesgo máximo”, está describiendo operaciones que ya tiene puestas. Los ensayos y el libro apuntan siempre en la misma dirección.
Desde el 18–19 de agosto de 2026 es CEO de Flop Labs y está lanzando FLOP, un token para el cómputo de agentes de IA, con un airdrop de testnet previsto de en torno al 20% del suministro y un bloque génesis apuntado a 2027. Dice que está autofinanciado, sin preventa y sin asignación a fondos de capital riesgo. Aun así, es un comentarista que pronostica un boom de liquidez mientras se prepara para emitir un token dentro de él.
Cofundó el exchange que popularizó el apalancamiento 100x, se declaró culpable en 2022 de una violación de la Bank Secrecy Act, pagó $10 millones, cumplió seis meses de arresto domiciliario y dos años de libertad vigilada, y fue indultado por el presidente Trump en marzo de 2025. Hoy escribe largamente sobre política monetaria y política estadounidense. Pondérelo como considere.
“Yes, I know I proclaimed we wouldn’t see $60,000 Bitcoin again, and obviously I erred, but that’s forecasting for you.”
08 Jun 2026 · asumiendo por escrito el fallo de mayo“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
11 May 2026 · published at a high that held four months“I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.”
08 Jun 2026 · la llamada que se cumplió, y en ese ordenCitas tomadas de sus propias fuentes públicas; opiniones expresadas, no recomendaciones.
Hayes publica ensayos en lugar de vídeos, así que sus apariciones largas son conferencias y entrevistas como invitado en canales ajenos. Ejemplos recientes fechados, con cada fecha confirmada en la página del vídeo:
Arthur Hayes Bitcoin 2026 Keynote: 21 Weeks LaterConferencia en Bitcoin Magazine — la guerra de Irán, la destrucción de empleo por la IA y la Fed.27 Apr 2026
The AI Trade Is Killing Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Breaks It DownEntrevista de Cointelegraph, días después de su giro en Reality Test.12 Jun 2026
Bitcoin to $200K And AI Is the Next 2008 | Arthur HayesCoin Bureau Podcast — la tesis del estallido de crédito de la IA al completo.21 Aug 2026
The Godfather Of Crypto Trading: My Final Warning To Bitcoin HoldersAltcoin Daily — su postura actual sobre liquidez y apalancamiento.23 Aug 2026Arthur Hayes es un inversor y ensayista estadounidense, nacido en 1985. Operó derivados de renta variable en Deutsche Bank y Citigroup antes de cofundar en 2014 el exchange de derivados cripto BitMEX con Ben Delo y Samuel Reed. Hoy dirige el family office Maelstrom como CIO, escribe el boletín Crypto Trader Digest y desde agosto de 2026 es CEO de Flop Labs.
No. Fue imputado en octubre de 2020 y se declaró culpable en febrero de 2022 de violar la Bank Secrecy Act, porque BitMEX operaba sin un programa de prevención de blanqueo ni de identificación de clientes mientras atendía a clientes estadounidenses. Fue condenado a seis meses de arresto domiciliario y dos años de libertad vigilada y pagó $10 millones. No cumplió pena de prisión, y el presidente Trump lo indultó a finales de marzo de 2025.
No está verificado públicamente. Se le describe ampliamente como multimillonario gracias a su participación en BitMEX, y su family office Maelstrom mantiene grandes posiciones cripto, pero no existe ninguna cifra confirmada. Trate cualquier número concreto que vea como una estimación, no como un hecho.
His direction has been more reliable than his timing. On this page his two bottom calls — 8 June and 4 August 2026 — landed almost to the day, while his most confident target call, published 11 May 2026, came at a price Bitcoin did not close above again for four months, and its $90,000 and $126,000 levels have not been reached. He is also not a neutral observer: he runs a long-only crypto book and is launching his own token. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Sostiene que la cantidad de fiat, y no el tipo de interés, fija el precio de Bitcoin, así que sigue las emisiones y recompras del Tesoro, el balance de la Fed, la creación de crédito bancario, el carry trade del yen y el crédito chino, y luego mantiene un libro solo largo que amplía o reduce según esa lectura. Expresa cautela negándose a añadir en vez de ponerse corto, y cubre con opciones y put spreads.
Hayes opera una sola idea —viene más fiat— y la dimensiona fuerte. ¿Cuánto se acerca su instinto? Mídalo de verdad con un Trader Passport.
Ahora ponga su enfoque a trabajar. Pruebe su ventaja con datos de mercado en vivo —sin arriesgar capital— en un torneo gratuito de BuyCrypt con premios reales.
Análisis informativo y educativo basado estrictamente en materiales de acceso público, principalmente sus propios ensayos fechados del boletín, enlazados en cada llamada que sustentan. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de inversión. Las cifras son aproximadas y cambian constantemente. Spotted an error, or are you Arthur? Enviar una corrección →
Cuentas verificadas · Fuentes citadas arriba · Metodología de puntuación · Actualizado 3 October 2026
