@TedPillows
Ein Chart-und-Kalender-Analyst, der in einem Format postet, das ungewöhnlich leicht zu bewerten ist: ein Level, ein Auslöser und was passiert, wenn er bricht. Das macht ihn zu einem guten Prüffall — und die Prüfung hat eine scharfe Kante. Er kartierte das gesamte erste Halbjahr 2026 im Voraus und drehte dann exakt am Tag des Tiefs auf bärisch.
Kurz gesagt. Ted Pillows publishes dated technical calls on X and a free near-daily market report on Substack, built from trendlines, MACD crosses, the 50-week EMA and the macro calendar. On our rolling 2026 sample of eleven posts the record is 4 played out, 5 open, 2 went against — and the split is not random. His March–April roadmap was the best forward-looking work on this page: nine weeks ahead he called a pump into $78,000–$80,000 followed by a downtrend, then narrowed it to new lows inside Q2 and a bottom in Q3. Bitcoin topped at $82,018 on 11 May and bottomed at $58,566 on 1 July. Both landed. Then the same feed posted “sellers are in control” on 1 July — the lowest daily mark in the entire window — before Bitcoin ran +47.9%, and called Solana distribution on 5 August, before SOL ran +65.6%. His newest base case — a retrace to the mid-$70,000s, set on 21 September when he sold his last Bitcoin at $85,000 — is open, with half of his own invalidation rule already tripped. The structural work is strong; the day-to-day sentiment reads are not.
Ted Pillows posts as @TedPillows (X user id 3222562058, display name simply “Ted”, blue-verified). Since 8 July 2026 he has also run a free Substack that publishes a near-daily “Crypto & Finance market report” plus occasional essays on trading process. His own description of the project, from the Substack profile: “Turning on-chain and macroeconomic signals into daily market reports, backed by deep research and actionable investment theses.” The daily reports are marked audience “everyone”, but since 14 September the Substack has a paid tier: a post that day put his live trading-portfolio spreadsheet behind “bonus content for paid subscribers” — worth knowing before reading the money section below.
Vieles, was über ihn kursiert, hält einer Prüfung nicht stand, deshalb wiederholt diese Seite es nicht. Es gibt keinen verifizierten Klarnamen — „Pillows“ ist ein Handle, und X zeigt nur „Ted“. Es gibt kein verifiziertes Land; eine suchmaschinenoptimierte Seite nennt ihn Kanadier ohne Quelle, also lassen wir es weg. Es gibt keine Followerzahl auf dieser Seite: X' Syndication-Endpunkt liefert keine, sein Profil-Endpunkt ist von unserem Host aus blockiert, und Sekundärquellen widersprechen sich (ein Artikel von 2026 nennt 230,000; das eigene Register dieser Seite schätzt ~300,000). Die viel wiederholte Behauptung, er sei „Binance- und Bybit-Partner“, führt zurück auf tedpillows.com, das HTTP 404 liefert — also wird sie auch hier nicht behauptet. Was Dritte bestätigen: crypto.news führt ihn als CryptoQuant-Contributor, und DropsTab listet ihn als Angel-Investor mit einer offengelegten Seed-Runde. Die Pronomen folgen dem durchgängigen Gebrauch in der Presse; er selbst hat sie nicht angegeben.
The format is why he is chartable at all. Most of the feed is a named level plus a conditional — “right at the 50W EMA”, “a weekly close below this could push Bitcoin towards $72,000–$74,000” — which is a falsifiable sentence with a date on it. That cuts both ways, and we have graded it both ways below. Eleven in-window posts qualified. Five more were examined and excluded — two of them restatements of calls that worked, so dropping them cost him wins — and each exclusion is listed with its reason in the verified corpus rather than quietly binned.
Sources: x.com/TedPillows (captured via X syndication) · tedpillows.substack.com · crypto.news
Levels first, calendar second. The toolkit is small and consistent: trendline and downtrend breakouts, daily and weekly MACD crosses, the 50-week EMA as the line that defines the regime, liquidity and liquidation clusters, and CryptoQuant-style spot-flow data — all hung on the macro calendar, so CPI, PPI and Fed meetings are usually the stated trigger. At his best he chains these into a multi-month roadmap with sequence and timing, which is rarer and harder than a single price target and is what the March–April calls did. The recurring weakness sits at the other end of the timeframe: short-horizon sentiment posts that extrapolate the last candle — bearish at the low, “distribution” into a 66% rally — where the level-based discipline goes missing and the tape talks instead.
Zyklisch bullisch, aber taktisch zweiseitig und tatsächlich bereit, ein bärisches Ziel zu posten — deshalb gehen zwei Calls auf dieser Seite gegen ihn. Sein Bullenfall hängt an der Fed und an Wochenschlusskursen, nicht an Überzeugung, sodass sich die Neigung mit dem Level bewegt, statt festgenagelt zu bleiben.
Eleven dated posts from @TedPillows, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 4 played out, 5 open, 2 went against, but read it by timeframe rather than by score. The multi-month roadmap was right: on 4 March he called a pump towards $78,000–$80,000 and then a downtrend, on 15 April he put the new lows inside Q2, and on 8 April he put the bottom in Q3. Bitcoin peaked at $82,018 on 11 May and bottomed at $58,566 on 1 July — the first day of Q3. The day-to-day reads were not: the 1 July post landed on the exact low and read it as seller control, and the 5 August Solana post called distribution before a +65.6% run. Note that the March and April roadmap posts are one evolving thesis, not three independent wins — they are charted separately because each adds a timing claim the others do not test, and the one whose unique leg ($100,000 by end of Q4) is still unresolved is scored open, not played out. The 4 March post has now aged out of our 210-day price window, so its chart anchors at 6 March; its grade rests on the levels he named.
“Yes, I still expect a retrace toward the mid-$70Ks.”
A profit-taking post with a thesis attached. He sold his last Bitcoin at $85,000 intraday and said in the same post he was not calling a top; what is graded here is the base case he kept, a retrace toward the mid-$70,000s. The chart measures from the day's CoinGecko mark, $81,169. The retrace has not come: Bitcoin ran +6.7% to $86,597 on 22 September, has not printed a daily mark below $83,000 since, and holds $83,448 (+2.8%). He named his own invalidation — multiple daily and weekly closes above $83,000. The daily half is met; only one weekly close since has come in above it, so by his own rule the thesis is not dead yet, and on 30 September he restated it: “a drop into the high $70,000s before the next leg up”. Open, with the invalidation half-tripped. Cross-checked: TheStreet and investingLive reported this post the same day.
𝕏 Post“I sold my last Bitcoin at $85,000. Why?” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“A weekly close below this could push Bitcoin towards $72,000-$74,000.”
His regime line, with a target attached for once. Posted at $76,555 with Bitcoin sitting on the 50-week EMA; the downside case needed a weekly close below it, and none has come — no weekly close since has printed below the post-day mark. The lowest daily mark afterwards was $75,590 (−1.3%) on 16 September; Bitcoin then ran +13.1% to $86,597 and holds $83,448 (+9.0%). The $72,000–$74,000 target was conditional, the condition never triggered, and the post took no side on the bounce — so it stays open rather than being scored either way, though the downside branch is now a long way off. Cross-checked: crypto.news embedded this post the same day.
𝕏 Post“$BTC is right at the 50W EMA level” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“This means ETH has most likely bottomed for this cycle.”
A big claim on a small move. From $2,442 Ethereum has held — the deepest mark since is $2,391 (−2.1%) — then ran +13.6% to $2,775 and holds $2,686 (+10.0%). His stated obstacle, the $2,550 level, broke on the way up. Two things still keep this open. A cycle bottom is a multi-quarter claim that one month cannot settle. And the actual 2026 low was $1,566 on 26 June, 36% below where he said this — so the sentence is a confirmation of a bottom already made, not a call for one.
𝕏 Post“ETH has most likely bottomed for this cycle” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“This looks like distribution.”
Distribution means smart money leaving before a breakdown, and that is not what came next. From $74 Solana fell just −1.5% to $73 on 7 August, then ran +65.6% to $122 by 26 September — the largest move any asset makes on this page — and holds $118 (+60.1%). The spot-selling data he cited was real; the conclusion drawn from it was the opposite of the outcome. Same-day crypto.news coverage carried the quote and built its bear case on it, which is how this one travelled.
𝕏 Post“$SOL is going sideways. But spot is selling.” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“Ethereum could start outperforming Bitcoin heavily now.”
A relative-value call, and the cleanest hit in the sample. From that day Ethereum ran +43.9% from $1,929 to $2,775 and holds $2,686 (+39.2%), with a maximum dip of −4.4%. Bitcoin over the same stretch went from $66,521 to $83,448, +25.4%. The ETH/BTC ratio he charted is up +11.0% — “heavily” is a fair description, and he named the reason (the eleven-month downtrend breaking) rather than the vibe.
𝕏 Post“ETH/BTC has broken out of 11-month downtrend” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“As long as Bitcoin stays below $60,000, sellers are in control.”
The worst-timed post on this page, and it is worth being precise about why. It was published on 1 July at $58,566 — the lowest daily mark in the entire price window. Bitcoin never printed a lower one. It closed back above his $60,000 line on 3 July, two days later, and ran +47.9% to $86,597 by 22 September; it holds $83,448 (+42.5%). In fairness the sentence is conditional — “as long as” — and the condition broke almost immediately, so he was not trapped short for long. But the read of the day was seller control at the exact bottom, and that is the call being graded.
𝕏 Post“$BTC hit a new yearly low” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“Most of the downside liquidity has been taken out.”
Two claims, both checkable. Ethereum bottoms before Bitcoin: ETH's low came on 26 June at $1,566, Bitcoin's on 1 July — five days later, in the order he gave. And most of the downside is done: from $1,749 the deepest mark after this post was −10.5%, then Ethereum ran +58.7% to $2,775 and holds $2,686 (+53.6%). The honest deduction: the $1,300–$1,400 sweep he floated as possible never happened, so the level was wrong even though the thesis was right — which is why the quote graded here is the part he actually committed to.
𝕏 Post“$ETH is more likely to bottom before $BTC” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“Now, Bitcoin is approaching the $78,000-$80,000 resistance zone, which will be a real test.”
A two-sided map with no lean, so the market gave him both halves. From $76,297 Bitcoin pushed straight through the zone to $82,018 (+7.5%) on 11 May — the reclaim branch — and then failed, giving back 28.6% from that high to $58,566 (−23.2% from this post) — the bigger-correction branch. It has since run to $86,597 (+13.5%) and holds $83,448 (+9.4%). A post that describes both outcomes cannot be scored a hit, so it is logged open. One thing in it was plainly wrong: the $75,000 support he said “held strong” broke, and price went 21.9% below it within nine weeks.
𝕏 Post“$BTC is back above the $77,000 level” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“This could give one final push to Bitcoin towards the $77,000-$78,000 level. After that, BTC will drop to new lows in Q2 2026.”
Die schärfste Fassung seiner Roadmap, weil sie eine Frist trägt. Von $74,297 kam der finale Schub pünktlich — $78,638 am 27. April, ausgedehnt auf $82,018 (+10.4%) am 11. Mai, über seine Zone hinaus. Dann der Fall: Bitcoin nahm das Februar-Tief von $64,074 heraus und druckte am 29. Juni $59,495 (−19.9%), innerhalb von Q2 mit einem Tag Reserve, mit dem Boden bei $58,566 (−21.2%) zwei Tage danach. Level und Quartal beide korrekt, zehn Wochen im Voraus genannt.
𝕏 Post“$BTC has broken out of its 7-month downtrend” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“▫️ A pump towards $80,000 . ▫️ A local top and correction to new lows. ▫️ Bottom in Q3 and a quick recovery towards $100,000 by Q4 end”
A four-step forecast, three steps delivered. From $71,662: the pump towards $80,000 came — $82,018 on 11 May (+14.5%); the local top and correction to new lows came — $58,566 (−18.3%); and the bottom landed on 1 July, the first day of Q3, exactly the quarter he named. The fourth leg is what keeps this open: $100,000 by the end of Q4 needs another +19.8% from today's $83,448, and the quarter starts today; the high so far is $86,597 (+20.8% from this post), on 22 September. Scored open rather than played out so the resolved legs do not borrow credit from an unresolved one.
𝕏 Post“IMO, this is how Bitcoin could play out” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“▫️ Bitcoin could pump towards $78,000-$80,000. ▫️ After that, the next downtrend will start.”
The first statement of the roadmap, built on a war analogy — Russia–Ukraine in February 2022, US–Iran in February 2026. Posted at $68,287, a mark that has since rolled out of our 210-day price window, so the chart now anchors this card at the window's first day, 6 March, at $70,868; the grade rests on the levels he named, which the anchor cannot move. Bitcoin entered his zone on 27 April at $78,638 and topped at $82,018 (+20.1% from the post) on 11 May; the downtrend then took 28.6% off that high, to $58,566. Both legs, nine weeks ahead. The analogy itself was far too violent — he cited a 40% pump and a 67% dump, and got +20.1% then −28.6% — so the shape was right and the scale was not.
𝕏 Post“Feb 2022 … Feb 2026” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.comDie Ergebnisse sind unsere Lesart seiner erklärten Neigung gegen den realen Kurs, nicht seine eigene Bewertung. Jedes Zitat ist ein wortwörtlicher X-Post, auf seiner Karte verlinkt und im geprüften Korpus vollständig wiedergegeben. Ein Post bekommt nur dann eine Karte, wenn er eine Aussage macht, die die anderen Karten nicht bereits prüfen; fünf Posts innerhalb des Fensters wurden als Wiederholungen oder als Nicht-Calls ausgeschlossen, jeweils mit festgehaltenem Grund — zwei davon hätten als Treffer gezählt. X kürzt lange Posts bei rund 277 Zeichen, und drei dieser Posts waren gekürzt: wir zitieren und bewerten nur den Text, den X zurückgab, niemals den ungesehenen Rest. Die Kurse sind CoinGecko-Tagesmarken, ein Intraday-Post wird also ab der Marke jenes Tages gemessen. Kurzfristige Wertungen können kippen, während sich der Zyklus auflöst.
When this page was first published there was no paywall to point at. That changed in September: the daily reports are still public, but there is now a paid tier, and his posts point to it. It is worth knowing where the incentives sit.
The near-daily Crypto & Finance market report on Substack is still marked audience “everyone”. But since 14 September the Substack has a paid tier: a post that day put his live trading-portfolio spreadsheet behind “bonus content for paid subscribers”, and X posts on 21 September and 1 October point readers to an X subscription for “the live spreadsheet” of his buys and sells. The 21 September post charted here ends with that pitch.
A 30 September X post about trading the US jobs data carried a SimpleFX deposit-bonus link — a broker referral that pays on trading activity, not on whether the call is right.
DropsTab lists him as an angel investor with one disclosed seed round (Hybrid, infrastructure, January 2025, alongside Outlier Ventures and others). Analysts who hold early allocations have a position in what they comment on — the general caution applies whether or not it touches the assets charted here.
He is widely described as a key-opinion-leader with exchange ties. We could not verify the frequently-repeated “Binance and Bybit partner” claim from any live primary source — the site it traces to is offline — so treat it as unconfirmed rather than as fact, in either direction.
No course and no token of his own that we could find. The calls on this page were all posted publicly and free on X.
“Bitcoin could pump towards $78,000-$80,000. After that, the next downtrend will start.”
04 Mar 2026 · die Roadmap, neun Wochen früh“As long as Bitcoin stays below $60,000, sellers are in control.”
01 Jul 2026 · exakt am Tief gepostet“Ethereum could start outperforming Bitcoin heavily now.”
22 Jul 2026 · der Rotations-Call, der aufgingZitate stammen aus den eigenen öffentlichen Quellen; geäußerte Ansichten, keine Empfehlungen.
Es gibt keine Videothek zu verlinken. Ted Pillows veröffentlicht auf X und in einem kostenlosen Substack-Newsletter — kein Podcast, und kein YouTube-Kanal, den wir als seinen bestätigen konnten (der Kanal mit passendem Namen ließ sich nicht verifizieren und sein Feed liefert 404, deshalb ist er hier nicht verlinkt). Genau deshalb ist jeder Call oben ein Post mit Zeitstempel statt ein Clip: X' eigener Syndication-Endpunkt liefert Autor, vollen Text und UTC-Datum, und mit diesem Nachweis lässt sich schwerer streiten als mit einem Transkript. Der vollständige Korpus — einschließlich der fünf Posts im Fenster, die wir geprüft und ausgeschlossen haben, mit Grund für jeden — ist auf jeder Karte zitiert.
Ein Krypto-Analyst, der datierte technische Calls als @TedPillows auf X postet und einen kostenlosen, nahezu täglichen Marktbericht auf Substack schreibt. Sein Klarname, sein Land und seine Followerzahl sind aus keiner Primärquelle verifizierbar, deshalb nennt diese Seite sie nicht. Die Presse führt ihn als CryptoQuant-Contributor, und DropsTab listet ihn als Angel-Investor.
On our rolling sample of eleven dated 2026 posts: four played out, five are still open, two went against. The pattern is more useful than the tally — his multi-month roadmap for the first half of 2026 (a top near $78,000–$80,000, new lows in Q2, a bottom in Q3) landed, while his short-horizon sentiment posts did not: he called seller control on the exact day of the low and Solana distribution before a 66% rally.
Level plus Makro-Kalender. Er arbeitet mit Trendlinienbrüchen, täglichen und wöchentlichen MACD-Kreuzungen, dem 50-Wochen-EMA als Regime-Linie, Liquiditätsclustern und Spot-Flow-Daten und hängt den Auslöser meist an einen CPI-, PPI- oder Fed-Termin. Seine Posts bestehen typischerweise aus einem Level, einer Bedingung und einer Konsequenz — genau das macht sie bewertbar.
Not for these — the calls charted on this page were all posted free on X, and his daily Substack reports are public. Since September he does sell access: a paid Substack tier and an X subscription unlock a live spreadsheet of his buys and sells. He is listed elsewhere as an angel investor, and is often described as having exchange partnerships, though we could not verify that claim from a live primary source.
Öffentlich nicht bekannt, und es existiert keine glaubwürdige Zahl. Ignoriere jede konkrete Zahl, die du an seinen Namen geheftet siehst.
Pillows handelt eine Linie, kein Gefühl: ein Level, ein Auslöser und was es bedeutet, wenn er bricht. Wie nah ist dein Instinkt dran — miss es wirklich mit einem Trader Passport.
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Informations- und Bildungsanalyse, die sich strikt auf öffentlich zugängliche Materialien stützt — datierte X-Posts, erfasst über X' eigenen Syndication-Endpunkt, und auf jeder Call-Karte verlinkte Berichterstattung. Keine Finanz- oder Anlageberatung. Zahlen sind ungefähr und ändern sich ständig. Spotted an error, or are you Ted? Korrektur einreichen →
Verifizierte Handles · Quellen oben zitiert · Bewertungsmethodik · Aktualisiert 1 October 2026
