@MerlijnTrader
Ein niederländischer Chart-Account, der eine Idee auf einmal postet, in Großbuchstaben und mit genau einem beschrifteten Chart: dieses Jahr reimt sich auf 2018 / 2022 / 2017, und hier ist das Level, das darüber entscheidet. Hohe Schlagzahl, sehr gut lesbar und — für das Genre ungewöhnlich — fast immer mit einer Zahl, die man später überprüfen kann. Wir haben sie überprüft.
Kurz gesagt. Merlijn The Trader is one of the loudest pattern accounts on X (~380K followers) and a much smaller YouTube channel (16.2K). The method is consistent: take a historical analogue — the 2022 bottom, the 2018 death cross, August 2017 — overlay it on the present chart, and name the one level that confirms or kills it. That makes him easy to grade, and the grade is genuinely mixed. His July 2026 bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether landed within days of the actual turn. His June 2026 “spring to $50K” road-map missed on both legs while price ran 42% the other way, and his April death-cross analogue pointed at a crash that never came. His September “Rektember” warning was followed by the month's rally; since mid-September he has been loudly bullish again (“don't wait for $50K”, “road to $170K”), and those calls are still open. He is also a paid-promotion business — his own link page sells “Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — which belongs in the frame next to the charts.
Merlijn postet als @MerlijnTrader an rund 380.000 Follower, dazu ein deutlich kleinerer YouTube-Kanal (16.2K Abonnenten, aktiv seit Juni 2021, ~1,1 Mio. Aufrufe insgesamt), der dieselbe Tagesthese als Video erzählt. Der X-Account trägt ein Affiliation-Badge für @cryptorover — das Business-Label von Crypto Rover — die beiden Accounts sitzen also in derselben Medien-Operation und sind keine unabhängigen Stimmen, die zufällig übereinstimmen. Sein YouTube-Kanal nennt sein eigenes Projekt unverblümt: „The mission: turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin“, live dokumentiert.
He is a commentator and marketer, not a fund. His public link page describes him as a consultant and business coach, invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”, and sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — i.e. projects can buy promotion from the same account that publishes the analysis. For honesty, note the big out-of-window calls too: in August 2025 he pushed back on $124K being the top (“0/30 peak indicators have triggered”), and in November 2025 he called the fear “manufactured” and the cycle only at “50% progress”, “not exit liquidity season”. In the seven months this page charts, Bitcoin never traded above $86,597 and printed $58,566 on 1 July 2026 — nowhere near $124K. Those posts are outside the price window so they are not charted, but they belong on the record.
Sources: x.com/MerlijnTrader (posts captured via x_capture.py) · youtube.com/@Merlijntrader (upload titles verified via oEmbed, dates from the video page) · linktr.ee/merlijnthetrader
Technische Analyse über Fraktale. Der Motor ist die Analogie: ein vergangenes Jahr finden, dessen Chart wie dieses aussieht (2017, 2018, 2022), annehmen, dass sich die Struktur wiederholt, und dann das Level benennen, das es beweist. Darum herum nutzt er Wyckoff-Akkumulationsphasen (Spring, Mark-up), Kreuzungen gleitender Durchschnitte, Stochastic RSI, ein Dashboard aus ~30 Zyklus-Peak-Indikatoren sowie On-Chain- oder Makro-Schlagzeilen (Validator-Exit-Queues, Fed-Zinserwartungen, ETF-Anträge) als Bestätigung. Die Stärke ist die Falsifizierbarkeit — er legt sich auf Zahlen fest wie „$60K is the decision“ oder „DCA zone $48–59K“. Die Schwäche ist die Kehrseite desselben Versprechens: wenn sich das Analogon nicht wiederholt, ist die Schlussfolgerung nicht bloß zu früh, sondern invertiert, und seine Posts nennen fast nie eine Positionsgröße oder einen Invalidierungspreis für den Leser.
Strukturell bullisch — die wiederkehrende Schlussfolgerung ist, dass der Boden da ist und die Masse ihn verkauft hat. Die bärischen Posts in dieser Stichprobe sind kurzfristig und bedingt; die bullischen sind die These.
Twelve dated calls of his own, charted against real CoinGecko price. Ten are X posts fetched back with their text and timestamp intact; two are the titles of his own YouTube uploads, dated from the video page. The sample is deliberately not a highlight reel: it includes the two July bottom calls that landed (BTC and ETH, within days of the turn), the June road-map that missed on both legs, the April death-cross analogue that pointed at a −67% repeat which never arrived, and the May “Solana is the loser” post that Solana then outperformed on. Note what this is: twelve calls from an account that publishes many times a day, picked because they contained a checkable number — not a complete log of everything he said. His 2025 “$124K is not the top / 50% through the cycle” posts fall outside the price window; they are in the biography above, unscored.
“$BTC BULLS THIS ISN'T WHAT YOU WANTED TO SEE. Bitcoin breakdown confirmed. All eyes on $80,500 now. Hold it, and this is just a shakeout. Lose it, and I expect more pain.”
A two-branch call with the level spelled out. Bitcoin was $84,449 that day, so $80,500 sat 4.7% below it. A day later it is $83,145 (−1.5%), still $2,645 above his line, so neither branch has triggered. The next morning he posted the same idea in more detail as a Wyckoff plan: a backup to $81K–$82K, then $90K if that holds. Open.
𝕏 Post“All eyes on $80,500 now.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K”
Published the day Bitcoin closed at $86,597, the highest price in this page's window. The title names a $170,000 destination, +96.3% away, with no date attached. We have the title, not a transcript, so we grade the title. A week on, Bitcoin is $83,145, −4.0% below him, and no day has closed higher since. A multi-year target: open.
Source“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 22 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In”
A bottom call made one day after Bitcoin's lowest September close, $75,590 on the 16th. He published at $76,147 and told viewers not to wait for $50,000. Twelve days later no day in our series has closed below his day's price. The high since is $86,597 (+13.7%) and Bitcoin trades at $83,145 (+9.2%). A fortnight is too short to grade a “bottom is in” call, so it stays open, but so far price agrees with him.
Source“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 17 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“REKTEMBER IS HERE: … Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September. Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him. … Rektember arrived without the safety net.”
A rate-scare warning with no level attached, so we graded it on the month it named. From $77,416 Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.4%) on 16 September. It then ran to $86,597 (+11.9%) on the 22nd and trades at $83,145 (+7.4%) with September all but over. The month did not bleed; it was the month the rally resumed. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Rektember arrived without the safety net.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled.”
The premise checks out — our daily series has Bitcoin going $62,820 → $77,658 across August, +23.6%, against his quoted +24.39%. The conclusion is a Q4 call, and Q4 starts on Thursday. Since the post, Bitcoin has dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%), run to $86,597 (+11.5%), and sits at $83,145 (+7.1%). That was a good September for his thesis, but the claim is that Q4 triples like 2017. Open.
𝕏 Post“When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling. Price is pinned right below it at $65,300. As long as that level caps us, the range holds and a dip toward $54K liquidity is on the table.”
Two branches, and the tape took the one he named as the invalidation. The ceiling did hold for three more weeks — from $65,344 Bitcoin sagged to $62,773 (−3.9%) by 2 August and closed under $67K every single day until 20 August. Then it reclaimed the level and ran: high since $86,597 (+32.5%), now $83,145 (+27.2%). The $54K liquidity he pointed at never got close — the lowest print is $8,773 above it. Range read right, downside target never armed: open, not scored.
𝕏 Post“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“2,600,000 ETHEREUM QUEUED TO EXIT IN SEPTEMBER. TODAY THE QUEUE IS EMPTY. … That queue cleared straight into a 47% drawdown. Whoever wanted out is already out. That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
Well timed. Ether was $1,953; the worst it did afterwards was $1,843 (−5.6%), then it ran to $2,775 (+42.1%) and trades at $2,666 (+36.5%). The reasoning was an emptied validator exit queue rather than a chart, and the call landed within days of the low.
𝕏 Post“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN TAPPED ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE HIGH TWICE. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022. … 2026: price fell to the 2021 top, tapped it twice, and it's up 13% this month. Same structure.”
The 2022 analogue worked here. From $66,077 Bitcoin dipped only to $62,773 (−5.0%), then ran to $86,597 (+31.1%) and sits at $83,145 (+25.8%). His “up 13% this month” also checks: the July low was $58,566 on the 1st, so +12.8% into the day he posted.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin tapped its previous cycle high twice.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don't go all-in on it. … 2026: Same playbook. Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
The most specific call in the set, and the clearest miss. Bitcoin was $60,855. The Wyckoff spring to ~$50K never happened — the lowest print since is $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, which only clips the very top edge of his $48–59K accumulation band. And the bounce did not stall in his $65–70K box: the high since is $86,597 (+42.3%) and price is $83,145 (+36.6%). “Don't go all-in on it” was the wrong instruction — that bounce was the move.
𝕏 Post“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS: Goldman Sachs just separated winners from losers. Publicly. Sold: all Solana ETF holdings. … Kept: Bitcoin exposure. Kept: Ethereum infrastructure plays.”
The filing was real; the winners-and-losers reading was not. Solana was $85, fell to $62 (−27.0%) — but so did everything, with Bitcoin −24.4% and Ether −26.5% over the same stretch — and it has since recovered to $118 (+38.3%) after a high of $122 (+43.3%). Over the period he framed it in, the coin he called the loser beat the Bitcoin he said the bank kept (+7.4%) by about 31 points.
𝕏 Post“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS. THEN DEATH CROSS. TWICE. 2018: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -67%. 2022: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -69%. 2026: golden cross printed. Death cross forming. $60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
He put two analogues on the table (−67% in 2018, −69% in 2022) and made $60K the line that chose between them. The line broke: from $68,107 Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−14.0%), about 2.4% under das genannte Level. Then nothing resembling the analogue followed — the high since is $86,597 (+27.1%) and price is $83,145 (+22.1%). The level was a fair pivot; the crash he attached to losing it never existed.
𝕏 Post“$60K is the decision.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“ETHEREUM HAS PRINTED THIS PATTERN TWICE IN FOUR MONTHS. 3 step rally. Stoch RSI peaks. Rollover. Dump. November: textbook. ETH lost 40%. March: same structure. Same Stoch RSI signal. $2K is the last support before the pattern completes.”
Graded on the branch he drew, this one worked. Ether was $2,203; $2,000 gave way nine days later, on 28 March, and the pattern completed into $1,566 (−28.9%) on 26 June — not far off the −40% November analogue he cited. It has since recovered to $2,666 (+21.0%), but the rollover he warned about was real, and it was called before the break.
𝕏 Post“$2K is the last support before the pattern completes.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated thesis against real price, not his own scoring. Several posts are two-branch conditionals (“hold it / lose it”) and X truncates long posts, so we quote and grade only the text the syndication endpoint returns verbatim. The two YouTube calls are graded on the title alone. Open marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Das ist der Teil der Akte, der bei einem Chart-Account mit hoher Schlagzahl am meisten zählt: Merlijns öffentliches Geschäft ist Aufmerksamkeit und Promotion, verkauft über dasselbe Handle, das die Analysen veröffentlicht. Nichts davon ist versteckt — es steht alles auf seiner eigenen Linkseite — aber es gehört neben die Charts.
Seine öffentliche Linkseite verkauft „TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages“ und lädt zu DMs „for Business/Partnerships“ ein. Projekte können also Reichweite bei demselben Account kaufen, der Marktanalysen postet. Gehen Sie davon aus, dass jeder in einem Post genannte Token oder Dienst eine Geschäftsbeziehung sein könnte, sofern er nichts anderes sagt.
Dieselbe Seite vermarktet ihn als Berater und Business-Coach mit einem „Book a Strategy Call“-Angebot — Publikum wird in Honorare verwandelt, was Posting-Volumen und Selbstsicherheit belohnt, nicht Vorsicht.
Sein X-Account trägt ein Affiliation-Badge für @cryptorover. Zwei Accounts aus einer Operation, die sich zustimmen, sind keine zwei unabhängigen Bestätigungen — einmal zählen, nicht zweimal.
Sein YouTube-Kanal nennt das Projekt „turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin“, live dokumentiert. Das ist Offenlegung, kein Konflikt — bedeutet aber, dass hinter strukturell bullischen Bitcoin-Posts ein strukturell bullisches Bitcoin-Buch steht.
“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
07 Jun 2026 · die Roadmap, die in beiden Teilen danebenlag“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
27 Jul 2026 · vier Tage vor dem tatsächlichen ETH-Tief“$60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
01 Apr 2026 · die Death-Cross-Linie, die ohne Crash brachZitate stammen aus den eigenen öffentlichen Quellen; geäußerte Ansichten, keine Empfehlungen.
Er veröffentlicht fast täglich Bitcoin-Videos auf einem Kanal, der weit kleiner ist, als seine X-Reichweite vermuten lässt. Aktuelle Uploads, datiert nach dem Kanal-Feed:
Bitcoin’s Next Drop Is Coming… But Bears Are Making A Huge MistakeKurzfristiger Rücksetzer, langfristig bullisch — genau die Haltung, die dieses Dossier chartet.10 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Is Repeating The 2022 Bottom… Here’s What Comes NextDas 2022er Fraktal, das die meisten seiner 2026er Calls antreibt.08 Sep 2026
Bitcoin’s New Parabolic Cycle Has OFFICIALLY BegunDie bullische Zyklus-These, ohne Level formuliert.07 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Just Flashed A MAJOR Buy Signal Before Jackson HoleMakro-Event-Rahmen vor der August-Rally.28 Aug 2026Ein niederländischer Krypto-Chartanalyst, der als @MerlijnTrader an rund 380.000 Follower auf X postet, dazu ein kleinerer YouTube-Kanal (16.2K Abonnenten). Sein Nachname ist nicht öffentlich. Bekannt ist er für Posts in Großbuchstaben mit einem einzigen Chart, die den aktuellen Markt mit einem vergangenen Jahr vergleichen — 2017, 2018, 2022 — und ein Level benennen, das den Ausgang entscheidet.
Mixed, and that is measurable. Of twelve dated 2026 calls charted here, three played out (including well-timed July bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether), five are still open, and four went against him — most clearly a June road-map for a drop to $50,000 that instead saw Bitcoin rally 42%. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Er verkauft Promotion offen: seine öffentliche Linkseite listet „TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages“, lädt zu DMs für Business und Partnerschaften ein und bietet bezahlte Strategiegespräche. Sein X-Account trägt außerdem ein Affiliation-Badge für @cryptorover. Gehen Sie davon aus, dass ein genanntes Projekt eine Geschäftsbeziehung sein kann, sofern nichts anderes angegeben ist.
Fraktal-Analogie plus ein Entscheidungslevel. Er legt die Chartstruktur eines vergangenen Jahres über die Gegenwart — Wyckoff-Akkumulation, Golden/Death Cross, Stochastic RSI, ein Dashboard aus ~30 Zyklus-Peak-Signalen — und legt sich dann auf eine Zahl fest wie „$60K is the decision“ oder „DCA zone $48–59K“. Das macht ihn leicht überprüfbar; es bedeutet aber auch, dass die Schlussfolgerung bei einem fehlschlagenden Analogon invertiert ist und nicht bloß zu früh.
Merlijn handelt per Analogie: das Jahr finden, das dieser Chart kopiert, und dann ein Level verteidigen. Wie nah ist Ihr Instinkt dran — messen Sie es echt mit einem Trader Passport.
So oder so: der einzige ehrliche Test ist ein echter. Testen Sie Ihre Lesart an realen Marktdaten — ohne Kapitalrisiko — in einem kostenlosen BuyCrypt-Turnier mit echten Preisen.
Informations- und Bildungsanalyse, strikt aus öffentlichem Material erstellt: seinen eigenen datierten X-Posts, wortgetreu samt Zeitstempel erfasst und bei jedem Call verlinkt, sowie seinen öffentlichen Kanal- und Linkseiten. Keine Finanz- oder Anlageberatung. Zahlen sind Näherungswerte und ändern sich ständig. Spotted an error, or are you Merlijn? Korrektur einreichen →
Verifizierte Handles · Quellen oben zitiert · Bewertungsmethodik · Aktualisiert 29 September 2026
