@crypto_birb
Ein polnischer technischer Analyst mit rund 712K Followern auf X, der Bitcoin nach dem Vierjahreszyklus, dem 200-Tage-Trend und dem Kalender handelt. Im Juli 2025 sagte er, er steige vor einem Bärenmarkt 2026 aus Krypto aus; im August 2026 schrieb er, „der Bärenmarkt ist vorbei“. Diese Seite prüft die Marken, die er seitdem genannt hat.
Kurz gesagt. Crypto Birb is Adrian Zduńczyk, a chartered market technician (CMT) from Poland and the founder of The Birb Nest. His posts on X (about 712K followers) mix Bitcoin chart levels with cycle and seasonality statistics. On this page: seven dated Bitcoin calls from 24 August to 12 October 2026. One played out — “the bear market is over” — and six are still open, including his 30 September call that Bitcoin can reach $100k–$122k before 2026 ends. None has gone against him yet, but all seven are recent, so the sample is short.
Laut dem Profil von mpost.io hat Adrian Zduńczyk den Handle und die Marke „Crypto Birb“ erfunden; es beschreibt ihn als Marktanalysten sowie Gründer und CEO von The Birb Nest. Das X-Konto (@crypto_birb, Anzeigename „₿IRB“) wurde im August 2017 eröffnet und hat mehr als 123,000 Posts.
Am 9. Juli 2025 erklärte er öffentlich, dass er aus Krypto umschichte: „Zyklushochs kamen immer in US-Nachwahljahren“, „2026 ist ein Midterm-Jahr“ und „Meine Meinung: Hoch im Juli oder Ende Oktober/Anfang November.“ Er sagte, er werde „einen Wiedereinstieg in Krypto im Q4 2026 oder Anfang 2027 ins Auge fassen“. Dieser Post liegt außerhalb des Kursfensters dieser Seite und ist daher nicht abgebildet, doch das Grundmuster hielt: Bitcoin erreichte im Oktober 2025 seinen Höchststand und markierte in unseren Daten am 1. Juli 2026 mit $58,566 seinen Tiefpunkt.
Seine Methode ist klassische technische Analyse — Formationsziele, Unterstützung und Widerstand, der 200-Tage-Trend und Golden Crosses — kombiniert mit Saisonalitätstabellen („Midterm-Septembers schlossen nie grün. Bis heute.“). Viele Posts enden mit einer Frage an die Follower und einem ausdrücklichen „Ich habe absolut keine Ahnung“, daher sind mehrere Calls auf dieser Seite Szenarien und keine einzelnen Ziele.
Sources: x.com/crypto_birb (profile and posts, via api.fxtwitter.com); youtube.com/@TheBirbNest; mpost.io profile
Techniker für Zyklen und Saisonalität. Er benennt Unterstützungen und Widerstände, misst Formationsziele („die Basisgröße der Formation nehmen und zum Widerstand addieren“) und stützt sich für das große Bild auf Halving-Zyklus- und Kalenderstatistiken. Die Stärke dieser Stichprobe sind die Unterstützungszonen: Der Kurs testete sie und prallte ab. Die Schwäche für eine Bilanz: Viele Posts skizzieren zwei Ausgänge zugleich und können daher weder eindeutig richtig noch falsch sein.
Bullish. On 28 Sep he posted “Dear bears, your days are counted.” On 30 Sep he wrote that the “Bear bottom came in a few weeks early this year” and that the best quarter on record for Bitcoin “is about to start”. On 9 Oct, with BTC down from $87K to $81K, he wrote: “The bull market isn't up for debate.”
Seven dated Bitcoin calls from his own posts on X, charted against real CoinGecko price. Each quote is copied from the post as published and was re-fetched live. All seven are from late August to mid-October 2026: his earlier 2026 posts are not reachable through our tools, and we found no dated press coverage of his calls inside the window, so this is a short, recent sample.
“Rising 200-day trends support @ $72k-$75k. 4. Key 1D support held @ $82k Conclusion: Big bull catching a breath after first sprint.”
BTC was $83,691. He read the pullback as a pause in a bull market, with $82k as the daily support that had held and the rising 200-day averages at $72k–$75k below it. Since then BTC has closed under $82k four times, but by less than 1%: the lowest close was $81,408 (−2.7%). It is $81,764 now (−2.3%). The $72k–$75k zone has not been tested. Still open.
𝕏 Post“Big bull catching a breath after first sprint.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“A typical October would take us to $98,700. That's right. It's fair to expect near $100k prices soon. Will we get there in 30 days? No clue, but Q4 is crazy. Average Q4 gains +19.17% in midterms and +45.26% overall. We can see $100k-$122k before 2026 ends.”
BTC was $83,640, so a typical October meant about +18.0%. He said he had “no clue” whether it would take 30 days. October has gone the other way so far: the highest close was $86,490 (+3.4%) on 5 Oct, the lowest $81,408 (−2.7%). It is $81,764 now (−2.2%), and would need +22.3% to reach $100k. The $100k–$122k range has until 31 December. Still open.
𝕏 Post“A typical October would take us to $98,700.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“1. Upward breakout aiming at $88k. Or 2. Downward breakout targetting $70k.”
BTC was $78,173. He gave both outcomes and said “No idea” which one. It dipped to $75,590 (−3.3%) the next day, then broke upward to $86,597 (+10.8%) on 22 Sep — 1.6% short of $88k. $70k was never reached. It is $81,764 now (+4.6%). Still open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin's range can resolve in one of two ways.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin support area is 75.7k-77.9k. If short-term bulls lose this area (daily close below), $70,000 becomes the key magnet.”
BTC was $79,093. It fell into his zone and closed at $75,590 (−4.4%) on 16 Sep — $110 under the bottom of it — then was back inside at $76,147 the next day. The $70,000 magnet never pulled: BTC ran to $86,597 (+9.5%) on 22 Sep and is $81,764 now (+3.4%). The zone worked as support, but by our closes his own trigger tripped once. Still open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin support area is 75.7k-77.9k.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“$70,000 is main support moving forward. $100,000 is main resistance.”
BTC was $77,297. Since then it has stayed inside his range: the lowest close was $75,590 (−2.2%) and the highest $86,597 (+12.0%). It is $81,764 now (+5.8%). Neither level has been tested. Still open.
𝕏 Post“$70,000 is main support moving forward.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“A realistic expectation is 2.5x from market bottom. Baseline can aim at $144,500. An aggressive target would be $231,200 (4x)”
A target for the April 2028 halving, not for this year. BTC was $78,225; it is $81,764 now (+4.5%) and would need to rise another 77% to reach $144,500. He said he expects it to land between the two figures, “closer to the first one”. Still open until 2028.
𝕏 Post“Baseline can aim at $144,500.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.com“A trend and not a correction. From a technical standpoint, the bear market is over.”
BTC was $77,712, up 23% in nine days from $62,984 on 15 Aug. He called it a trend, not a relief bounce. It never gave the move back: the lowest close since was $75,590 (−2.7%), and BTC rose to $86,597 (+11.4%) on 22 Sep. It is $81,764 now (+5.2%). Played out so far — an eight-week read on a cycle call.
𝕏 Post“From a technical standpoint, the bear market is over.” — @crypto_birb on X↗ x.comDie Ergebnisse sind unsere Lesart dessen, was jeder Post aussagte, gemessen an echten CoinGecko-Tagesschlusskursen — nicht seine eigene Bewertung. Marken werden gegen Tagesschlusskurse geprüft, daher kann der Kurs im Tagesverlauf weiter gelaufen sein als die angegebenen Zahlen. „Noch offen“ bedeutet, dass der Call eine Marke oder einen Zeithorizont nennt, der noch nicht erreicht oder gebrochen wurde.
His X bio reads “Millionaire Speedrun” and links a futures trading competition on the Bitbase exchange with the referral code SPEEDRUN. On 22 Sep he wrote that his group gets “a cut of their fees”. He also posts promotions for OKX products (OKX Shield on 26 Sep, OKX VIP tiers on 15 Oct). Those are incentives worth knowing about when his posts turn bullish.
A trading program he promotes on X and on The Birb Nest YouTube channel (“Millionaire Speedrun - A Structured Path to Profitable Trading”). The bio link is a Bitbase futures competition with a referral code. On 22 Sep he wrote that entry is free with “our special @Bitbase_Ex code (we get a cut of their fees)”.
Seine Marke für Analyse, Bildung und Beratung, mit YouTube-Kanal und Website. Ältere Uploads enthalten gesponserte Beiträge über Börsen und Projekte.
In July 2025 he wrote that he was rotating out of crypto into “cash, real estate, gold, hedge funds, luxury” and planned to re-enter in Q4 2026 or early 2027. On 5 Oct 2026 he wrote that he had “moved on to buy bitcoin bags for long term. Not touching it till Q2 2029.” He gave no size.
“From a technical standpoint, the bear market is over.”
24 Aug 2026 · BTC stieg um 11.4%, ohne die Bewegung wieder abzugeben“My opinion: top in July or late October/early November.”
9 Jul 2025 · Bitcoin erreichte im Oktober 2025 seinen Höchststand“Bear bottom came in a few weeks early this year”
30 Sep 2026 · seine Einschätzung des Bärenmarkts 2026Zitate aus seinen eigenen öffentlichen Quellen übernommen; geäußerte Ansichten, keine Empfehlungen.
Es gibt hier kein aktuelles Marktvideo zu verlinken. Die Uploads des YouTube-Kanals The Birb Nest in diesem Zeitraum bewerben das Programm Millionaire Speedrun, und jeder abgebildete Call verlinkt auf seinen Post auf X.
Adrian Zduńczyk, ein polnischer Chartered Market Technician (CMT) und Gründer von The Birb Nest, der seit August 2017 als @crypto_birb auf X für rund 712K Follower postet.
On 30 Sep 2026 he wrote that the bear bottom was in, that “a typical October would take us to $98,700”, and that “we can see $100k-$122k before 2026 ends”. On 3 Sep he named $70,000 as main support and $100,000 as main resistance. For the April 2028 halving he gave a baseline of $144,500 and an aggressive target of $231,200.
Of seven dated Bitcoin calls from 24 Aug to 12 Oct 2026, one played out (the bear market is over) and six are still open. None has gone against him yet, but the sample is short and recent. Outside the chart window, his July 2025 call for a 2025 top followed by a 2026 bear market matched what happened. Treat it as a documented opinion, not advice.
Through The Birb Nest brand and the Millionaire Speedrun trading program. His X bio links a Bitbase futures trading competition with the referral code SPEEDRUN, and he has written that his group gets “a cut of their fees”. He also posts OKX promotions.
Crypto Birb handelt den Vierjahreszyklus mit Unterstützungszonen und Kalenderstatistiken. Wie nah ist dein Instinkt? Miss es wirklich mit einem Trader Passport.
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Informative und bildende Analyse, die sich ausschließlich auf öffentlich zugängliche Materialien stützt (seine eigenen datierten X-Posts, sein X-Profil, den YouTube-Kanal The Birb Nest und ein öffentliches Profil auf mpost.io, auf der Seite verlinkt). Keine Finanz- oder Anlageberatung. Zahlen sind Näherungswerte und ändern sich ständig. Spotted an error, or are you Adrian? Korrektur einreichen →
Verifizierte Handles · Quellen oben zitiert · Bewertungsmethodik · Aktualisiert 18 October 2026
