@MerlijnTrader
Tek seferde tek bir fikir paylaşan, büyük harflerle ve tek bir işaretli grafikle yazan bir Hollandalı grafik hesabı: bu yıl 2018 / 2022 / 2017 ile kafiyeli ve kararı verecek seviye şu. Yüksek üretim, çok okunaklı ve — tür için alışılmadık biçimde — neredeyse her zaman sonradan kontrol edilebilecek bir sayıya bağlı. Biz de kontrol ettik.
Kısaca. Merlijn The Trader is one of the loudest pattern accounts on X (~380K followers) and a much smaller YouTube channel (16.2K). The method is consistent: take a historical analogue — the 2022 bottom, the 2018 death cross, August 2017 — overlay it on the present chart, and name the one level that confirms or kills it. That makes him easy to grade, and the grade is genuinely mixed. His July 2026 bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether landed within days of the actual turn. His June 2026 “spring to $50K” road-map missed on both legs while price ran 42% the other way, and his April death-cross analogue pointed at a crash that never came. His September “Rektember” warning was followed by the month's rally; since mid-September he has been loudly bullish again (“don't wait for $50K”, “road to $170K”), and those calls are still open. He is also a paid-promotion business — his own link page sells “Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — which belongs in the frame next to the charts.
Merlijn @MerlijnTrader olarak yaklaşık 380.000 takipçiye paylaşım yapıyor; yanında aynı günlük tezi video biçiminde yeniden anlatan çok daha küçük bir YouTube kanalı var (16.2K abone, Haziran 2021'den beri aktif, toplam ~1,1 milyon görüntüleme). X hesabı @cryptorover için bir bağlılık rozeti taşıyor — Crypto Rover'ın kurumsal etiketi — yani iki hesap aynı medya operasyonunun içinde; tesadüfen aynı şeyi söyleyen bağımsız sesler değil. YouTube kanalı kendi projesini açıkça yazıyor: “The mission: turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, canlı belgelenerek.
He is a commentator and marketer, not a fund. His public link page describes him as a consultant and business coach, invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”, and sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — i.e. projects can buy promotion from the same account that publishes the analysis. For honesty, note the big out-of-window calls too: in August 2025 he pushed back on $124K being the top (“0/30 peak indicators have triggered”), and in November 2025 he called the fear “manufactured” and the cycle only at “50% progress”, “not exit liquidity season”. In the seven months this page charts, Bitcoin never traded above $86,597 and printed $58,566 on 1 July 2026 — nowhere near $124K. Those posts are outside the price window so they are not charted, but they belong on the record.
Sources: x.com/MerlijnTrader (posts captured via x_capture.py) · youtube.com/@Merlijntrader (upload titles verified via oEmbed, dates from the video page) · linktr.ee/merlijnthetrader
Önce fraktal teknik analiz. Motor analoji: grafiği bugüne benzeyen geçmiş bir yıl bul (2017, 2018, 2022), yapının tekrarlayacağını varsay, sonra bunu kanıtlayacak seviyeyi söyle. Bunun çevresinde Wyckoff birikim fazları (spring, mark-up), hareketli ortalama kesişimleri, Stochastic RSI, ~30 döngü zirvesi göstergesinden oluşan bir pano ve teyit amacıyla on-chain veya makro başlıklar (validatör çıkış kuyrukları, Fed faiz beklentileri, ETF başvuruları) kullanıyor. Güçlü yanı yanlışlanabilirlik — “$60K is the decision” ya da “DCA zone $48–59K” gibi sayılara bağlanıyor. Zayıf yanı aynı vaadin öteki yüzü: benzer tekrarlamadığında sonuç yalnızca erken değil, tersine dönmüş oluyor ve paylaşımları okura neredeyse hiç pozisyon büyüklüğü ya da geçersizlik fiyatı vermiyor.
Yapısal olarak boğa — tekrar eden sonuç, dibin geçtiği ve kalabalığın onu sattığı. Bu örneklemdeki ayı paylaşımları kısa vadeli ve koşullu; boğa olanlar tezin kendisi.
Twelve dated calls of his own, charted against real CoinGecko price. Ten are X posts fetched back with their text and timestamp intact; two are the titles of his own YouTube uploads, dated from the video page. The sample is deliberately not a highlight reel: it includes the two July bottom calls that landed (BTC and ETH, within days of the turn), the June road-map that missed on both legs, the April death-cross analogue that pointed at a −67% repeat which never arrived, and the May “Solana is the loser” post that Solana then outperformed on. Note what this is: twelve calls from an account that publishes many times a day, picked because they contained a checkable number — not a complete log of everything he said. His 2025 “$124K is not the top / 50% through the cycle” posts fall outside the price window; they are in the biography above, unscored.
“$BTC BULLS THIS ISN'T WHAT YOU WANTED TO SEE. Bitcoin breakdown confirmed. All eyes on $80,500 now. Hold it, and this is just a shakeout. Lose it, and I expect more pain.”
A two-branch call with the level spelled out. Bitcoin was $84,449 that day, so $80,500 sat 4.7% below it. A day later it is $83,145 (−1.5%), still $2,645 above his line, so neither branch has triggered. The next morning he posted the same idea in more detail as a Wyckoff plan: a backup to $81K–$82K, then $90K if that holds. Open.
𝕏 Post“All eyes on $80,500 now.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K”
Published the day Bitcoin closed at $86,597, the highest price in this page's window. The title names a $170,000 destination, +96.3% away, with no date attached. We have the title, not a transcript, so we grade the title. A week on, Bitcoin is $83,145, −4.0% below him, and no day has closed higher since. A multi-year target: open.
Source“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 22 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In”
A bottom call made one day after Bitcoin's lowest September close, $75,590 on the 16th. He published at $76,147 and told viewers not to wait for $50,000. Twelve days later no day in our series has closed below his day's price. The high since is $86,597 (+13.7%) and Bitcoin trades at $83,145 (+9.2%). A fortnight is too short to grade a “bottom is in” call, so it stays open, but so far price agrees with him.
Source“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 17 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“REKTEMBER IS HERE: … Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September. Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him. … Rektember arrived without the safety net.”
A rate-scare warning with no level attached, so we graded it on the month it named. From $77,416 Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.4%) on 16 September. It then ran to $86,597 (+11.9%) on the 22nd and trades at $83,145 (+7.4%) with September all but over. The month did not bleed; it was the month the rally resumed. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Rektember arrived without the safety net.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled.”
The premise checks out — our daily series has Bitcoin going $62,820 → $77,658 across August, +23.6%, against his quoted +24.39%. The conclusion is a Q4 call, and Q4 starts on Thursday. Since the post, Bitcoin has dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%), run to $86,597 (+11.5%), and sits at $83,145 (+7.1%). That was a good September for his thesis, but the claim is that Q4 triples like 2017. Open.
𝕏 Post“When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling. Price is pinned right below it at $65,300. As long as that level caps us, the range holds and a dip toward $54K liquidity is on the table.”
Two branches, and the tape took the one he named as the invalidation. The ceiling did hold for three more weeks — from $65,344 Bitcoin sagged to $62,773 (−3.9%) by 2 August and closed under $67K every single day until 20 August. Then it reclaimed the level and ran: high since $86,597 (+32.5%), now $83,145 (+27.2%). The $54K liquidity he pointed at never got close — the lowest print is $8,773 above it. Range read right, downside target never armed: open, not scored.
𝕏 Post“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“2,600,000 ETHEREUM QUEUED TO EXIT IN SEPTEMBER. TODAY THE QUEUE IS EMPTY. … That queue cleared straight into a 47% drawdown. Whoever wanted out is already out. That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
Well timed. Ether was $1,953; the worst it did afterwards was $1,843 (−5.6%), then it ran to $2,775 (+42.1%) and trades at $2,666 (+36.5%). The reasoning was an emptied validator exit queue rather than a chart, and the call landed within days of the low.
𝕏 Post“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN TAPPED ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE HIGH TWICE. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022. … 2026: price fell to the 2021 top, tapped it twice, and it's up 13% this month. Same structure.”
The 2022 analogue worked here. From $66,077 Bitcoin dipped only to $62,773 (−5.0%), then ran to $86,597 (+31.1%) and sits at $83,145 (+25.8%). His “up 13% this month” also checks: the July low was $58,566 on the 1st, so +12.8% into the day he posted.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin tapped its previous cycle high twice.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don't go all-in on it. … 2026: Same playbook. Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
The most specific call in the set, and the clearest miss. Bitcoin was $60,855. The Wyckoff spring to ~$50K never happened — the lowest print since is $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, which only clips the very top edge of his $48–59K accumulation band. And the bounce did not stall in his $65–70K box: the high since is $86,597 (+42.3%) and price is $83,145 (+36.6%). “Don't go all-in on it” was the wrong instruction — that bounce was the move.
𝕏 Post“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS: Goldman Sachs just separated winners from losers. Publicly. Sold: all Solana ETF holdings. … Kept: Bitcoin exposure. Kept: Ethereum infrastructure plays.”
The filing was real; the winners-and-losers reading was not. Solana was $85, fell to $62 (−27.0%) — but so did everything, with Bitcoin −24.4% and Ether −26.5% over the same stretch — and it has since recovered to $118 (+38.3%) after a high of $122 (+43.3%). Over the period he framed it in, the coin he called the loser beat the Bitcoin he said the bank kept (+7.4%) by about 31 points.
𝕏 Post“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS. THEN DEATH CROSS. TWICE. 2018: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -67%. 2022: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -69%. 2026: golden cross printed. Death cross forming. $60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
He put two analogues on the table (−67% in 2018, −69% in 2022) and made $60K the line that chose between them. The line broke: from $68,107 Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−14.0%), about 2.4% under belirtilen seviye. Then nothing resembling the analogue followed — the high since is $86,597 (+27.1%) and price is $83,145 (+22.1%). The level was a fair pivot; the crash he attached to losing it never existed.
𝕏 Post“$60K is the decision.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“ETHEREUM HAS PRINTED THIS PATTERN TWICE IN FOUR MONTHS. 3 step rally. Stoch RSI peaks. Rollover. Dump. November: textbook. ETH lost 40%. March: same structure. Same Stoch RSI signal. $2K is the last support before the pattern completes.”
Graded on the branch he drew, this one worked. Ether was $2,203; $2,000 gave way nine days later, on 28 March, and the pattern completed into $1,566 (−28.9%) on 26 June — not far off the −40% November analogue he cited. It has since recovered to $2,666 (+21.0%), but the rollover he warned about was real, and it was called before the break.
𝕏 Post“$2K is the last support before the pattern completes.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated thesis against real price, not his own scoring. Several posts are two-branch conditionals (“hold it / lose it”) and X truncates long posts, so we quote and grade only the text the syndication endpoint returns verbatim. The two YouTube calls are graded on the title alone. Open marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Yüksek üretimli bir grafik hesabında dosyanın en çok önem taşıyan kısmı burası: Merlijn'in kamuya açık işi dikkat ve tanıtım, ve bunlar analizi yayınlayan aynı hesaptan satılıyor. Hiçbiri gizli değil — hepsi kendi bağlantı sayfasında — ama grafiklerin yanında durması gerekiyor.
Kamuya açık bağlantı sayfası “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” satıyor ve “for Business/Partnerships” mesajlarına davet ediyor. Yani projeler, piyasa analizi paylaşan aynı hesaptan erişim satın alabiliyor. Bir paylaşımda adı geçen her token veya platformun, aksini söylemediği sürece ticari bir ilişki olabileceğini varsayın.
Aynı sayfa onu “Book a Strategy Call” teklifiyle danışman ve iş koçu olarak konumlandırıyor — izleyici ücrete dönüşüyor, bu da temkinliliği değil paylaşım hacmini ve kendinden eminliği ödüllendiriyor.
X hesabı @cryptorover için bir bağlılık rozeti taşıyor. Aynı operasyondan iki hesabın birbirini onaylaması iki bağımsız teyit değildir — bir kez sayın, iki kez değil.
YouTube kanalı projeyi “turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin” olarak ilan ediyor, canlı belgelenerek. Bu bir çatışma değil, açıklama — ama yapısal olarak boğa Bitcoin paylaşımlarının arkasında yapısal olarak boğa bir Bitcoin portföyü olduğu anlamına geliyor.
“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
07 Jun 2026 · iki ayağında da ıskalayan yol haritası“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
27 Jul 2026 · gerçek ETH dibinden dört gün önce“$60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
01 Apr 2026 · çöküş olmadan kırılan ölüm kesişimi çizgisiAlıntılar kendi kamuya açık kaynaklarından alındı; bunlar dile getirilmiş görüşlerdir, tavsiye değildir.
X'teki takipçi sayısının düşündürdüğünden çok daha küçük bir kanalda neredeyse her gün Bitcoin videosu yayınlıyor. Kanal akışından tarihlenmiş son yüklemeler:
Bitcoin’s Next Drop Is Coming… But Bears Are Making A Huge MistakeKısa vadede düşüş, uzun vadede boğa — bu dosyanın çizdiği duruşun tam kendisi.10 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Is Repeating The 2022 Bottom… Here’s What Comes Next2026 çağrılarının çoğunu süren 2022 fraktalı.08 Sep 2026
Bitcoin’s New Parabolic Cycle Has OFFICIALLY BegunSeviyesi verilmeden ortaya konmuş boğa döngü tezi.07 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Just Flashed A MAJOR Buy Signal Before Jackson HoleAğustos ralisinden önce makro olay çerçevesi.28 Aug 2026X'te @MerlijnTrader olarak yaklaşık 380.000 takipçiye paylaşım yapan, yanında daha küçük bir YouTube kanalı (16.2K abone) bulunan Hollandalı bir kripto grafik analisti. Soyadı kamuya açık değil. Mevcut piyasayı geçmiş bir yılla — 2017, 2018, 2022 — karşılaştıran ve sonucu belirleyecek tek bir seviye söyleyen, tek grafikli büyük harfli paylaşımlarıyla tanınıyor.
Mixed, and that is measurable. Of twelve dated 2026 calls charted here, three played out (including well-timed July bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether), five are still open, and four went against him — most clearly a June road-map for a drop to $50,000 that instead saw Bitcoin rally 42%. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
Tanıtımı açıkça satıyor: kamuya açık bağlantı sayfasında “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” yer alıyor, iş ve ortaklık mesajlarına davet ediyor ve ücretli strateji görüşmeleri sunuyor. X hesabı ayrıca @cryptorover için bir bağlılık rozeti taşıyor. Aksi belirtilmedikçe, adı geçen bir projenin ticari bir ilişki olabileceğini varsayın.
Fraktal analoji artı tek bir karar seviyesi. Geçmiş bir yılın grafik yapısını bugüne bindiriyor — Wyckoff birikimi, altın/ölüm kesişimi, Stochastic RSI, ~30 sinyalli döngü zirvesi panosu — sonra “$60K is the decision” ya da “DCA zone $48–59K” gibi bir sayıya bağlanıyor. Bu onu kolay kontrol edilebilir yapıyor; aynı zamanda benzer tutmadığında sonucun sadece erken değil, ters olduğu anlamına geliyor.
Merlijn analojiyle işlem yapar: bu grafiğin kopyaladığı yılı bul, sonra tek bir seviyeyi savun. Sezgin ne kadar yakın — Trader Passport ile gerçekten ölç.
Her hâlükârda tek dürüst test canlı olanıdır. Okumanızı gerçek piyasa verisinde — sermaye riski olmadan — gerçek ödüllü ücretsiz bir BuyCrypt turnuvasında çalıştırın.
Yalnızca kamuya açık materyalden kurulmuş bilgilendirme ve eğitim amaçlı analiz: kendi tarihli X paylaşımları — zaman damgalarıyla birebir kaydedilmiş ve her çağrıda bağlantılanmış — ile kamuya açık kanal ve bağlantı sayfaları. Finansal veya yatırım tavsiyesi değildir. Sayılar yaklaşıktır ve sürekli değişir. Spotted an error, or are you Merlijn? Düzeltme gönder →
Doğrulanmış hesaplar · Kaynaklar yukarıda belirtilmiştir · Puanlama metodolojisi · Güncellendi 29 September 2026
