@MarkYusko
Fiyat hedefi değil, gerçeğe uygun değer konuşan vakıf fonu yöneticisi. Yusko bitcoin'i bir ağ değeri modelinden geçirir, model „ucuz“ dediğinde alır ve döngüye tarih koyar — bu da onu alışılmadık biçimde denetlenebilir kılar, dolayısıyla hataları da denetlenebilir.
Kısaca. Mark Yusko is the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and before that ran the endowments at Notre Dame and UNC Chapel Hill. In crypto he is a macro and valuation voice rather than a chartist: he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model (run by analyst Tim Peterson) that puts Bitcoin's fair value near $105,000, and he accumulates whenever price sits below it. He is also a four-year-cycle believer to the day, naming 5 October 2026 as the cycle's turn — a date that came and went with no new low. That framework called the depth of this year's low almost exactly — and got the timing of it badly wrong, twice.
Yusko (d. 1963, Seattle'da büyüdü) Notre Dame'dan BS ve Chicago Üniversitesi'nden MBA derecelerine sahip. Notre Dame yatırım ofisine Ekim 1993'te assistant investment officer olarak katıldı ve 1998'e kadar senior investment director'ü oldu; ardından 1998–2004 arasında Kuzey Karolina Üniversitesi Chapel Hill'in vakıf yatırım ofisi UNC Management Company'yi kurup yönetti. Her ikisine de alternatif ağırlıklı „vakıf modelini“ taşıdı. 2004'te Morgan Creek Capital Management'i, 2018'de ise Bitwise ile birlikte kurumsal bir Digital Asset Index Fund başlatan Morgan Creek Digital'i kurdu. 2026 tarihli bir söyleşi dijital kolu $3.2 billion of assets under advisement yöneten bir yapı olarak tarif etti.
Sicil baştan sona parlak değil ve dosya bunu söylüyor: Salient Partners ile ortaklığı olan Endowment Fund yaklaşık $3.5 billion'a ulaştı, ardından performans sorunları Ocak 2013'te görevden alınmasına yol açtı. Kriptodaki inancı eski — X'teki adı olan „Two Point One Quadrillion“, var olan satoshi sayısıdır — uzun vadeli rakamı gibi: 15 Şubat 2026 tarihli bir söyleşide bitcoin'in $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029 seviyesine ulaşacağı konusunda „pretty comfortable“ olduğunu söyledi. Aynı söyleşi, bu dosyanın grafiğe işleyemediği ama gizlemeyeceği çağrıyı da içeriyor: bu döngünün dibini $58,000–$63,000 aralığına, 30 Eylül–1 Ekim 2026 civarına koydu. Seviye neredeyse kusursuzdu — bitcoin'in şimdiye kadarki dibi $58,566 — ama bu dip 1 Temmuz'da, üç ay erken basıldı ve aradaki aylarda insanlara diplerin çoktan geride kaldığını söyledi.
Sources: morgancreekcap.com · Bitcoin Magazine · Yahoo Finance / Benzinga / Stocktwits · Coinage · NewsBTC · Cointelegraph
Önce değerleme, vakıf fonu saatiyle makro. Yusko trend çizgisi çizmez. Bir ağın ne ettiğini sorar — bitcoin'in kullanıcılarına ve işlemlerine uygulanan Metcalfe yasası, Tim Peterson'ın modeli üzerinden — ve fiyat o sayının altındayken günü yakalamaya çalışmadan, haftalık alır. Bunun çevresinde likidite, itibari paranın değer kaybı, vadeli piyasa konumlanması ve önceki tepeden itibaren 364 gün hassasiyetinde bir takvim gibi işlediği dört yıllık halving döngüsü üzerine yukarıdan aşağı bir okuma vardır. Gücü, herkesi korkutan bir düşüş boyunca almayı sürdürmesidir. Zayıflığı da aynı özelliktir: $70,000'da „ucuz“ diyen model $60,000'da da „ucuz“ der ve döngü zamanlaması tahminleri defalarca erken çıkmıştır.
Structurally very bullish on Bitcoin (fair value $105,000 against a price in the $80,000s, a $600–700k 2029 target). He spent early September calling the tape “bear market action” and pointing at a 5 October low, then turned: on 22 September he said the uptrend to $125,000 and $250,000 had begun, and on 2 October he posted “Looking Like Uptober”. Bearish on governance tokens, including ETH and SOL.
Dated statements Yusko made on podcasts and video interviews, written up verbatim by third-party press, charted against real price. He is a valuation and cycle voice, so the calls are directional and dated rather than tight levels — we judged each on what Bitcoin (or Solana) actually did next. The 2026 sample below is unflattering in the middle: he called the lows in on 11 March and again on 18 May, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July. What he did right is arguably more useful — he was buying weekly the whole way down, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls both worked. His 6 September warning — a possible drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low — did not. His out-of-window 15 February call had the bottom level almost exactly right and the date three months late; it is on the record above, not on this chart, because it predates the price window.
“Looking Like Uptober… 🧡🚀”
Three days before his own 5 October cycle-low date, he quote-posted Morgan Creek's Digital Currents episode — “‘Uptober’ or head fake?” — and answered it: Uptober. A day earlier he had hedged the same idea (“when everyone starts taking about something, it usually doesn’t happen”). Posted at 20:34 UTC, so the chart's 2 October point of $84,842 is that day's midnight price; the next point, $84,506, was barely different. Since then BTC has topped at $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October and sits at $84,009 (−1.0%). Five days in — open.
𝕏 Post“Looking Like Uptober…” — @MarkYusko on X↗ x.com“So, I think this will be not like straight up to 125 and straight up to 250, but I do think the durability of the trend will be better.”
Talking to Coinage's Zack Guzman (uploaded 22 September), he said Bitcoin had moved from distribution into accumulation and that the path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun — slowly, not vertically. It is a flip from his 6 September “not out of the woods” call, made before his own 5 October date. He made it on the best close of the whole rebound: $86,597, which BTC has not bettered since. Low since $83,479 (−3.6%), now $84,009 (−3.0%). A long-horizon thesis two weeks old — open.
SourceWhy the Bitcoin Rally to $250K Has Begun: Hedge Fund Manager Mark Yusko — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
On Bitcoin Magazine TV, with BTC at $75,590, he put fair value at $105,000 on Metcalfe's law and said the gap made it a buy. It worked: BTC has not closed lower since, ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+11.1%). He called it on the exact low of the September dip.
SourceBitcoin Is On Sale, Says Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko — Bitcoin Magazine↗ bitcoinmagazine.com“We sold 90% of it.”
He revealed he had exited almost all of a Solana position he called the best investment of his life — roughly a 1,000x on Morgan Creek's stake in Multicoin's first fund — on governance grounds, not price. A month later the exit is offside: from $103 SOL dipped to $97 (−6.1%), then ran to $122 (+18.3%) and sits at $118 (+14.5%). Still far too early to score a multi-year exit made on governance grounds — open.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
With BTC at $79,822 he called the tape “super, super overbought”, said the squeeze was “still bear market action”, put the cycle low on 5 October (364 days after the peak) and warned price could fall to about $60,000 first. His date has now passed and the drop never came. The worst close was $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September; BTC then ran to $86,597 (+8.5%), closed $86,490 on 5 October itself and sits at $84,009 (+5.2%). By 2 October he was posting “Looking Like Uptober” himself — went against.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
Yılın en iyi çağrısı ve bunu bir seviye vermeden yaptı. Bitcoin'in $58,566'lık dibinden on gün sonra, BTC $64,111'deyken Cointelegraph'a konuşurken, Morgan Creek'in şubattan beri $105,000–$108,000 gerçeğe uygun değerine karşı haftalık aldığını ve ekime kadar sürdüreceğini söyledi. BTC sonrasında $86,597 (+35.1%)'e çıktı ve $84,009 (+31.0%)'de duruyor; yol boyunca en derin geri çekilme yalnızca −2.9% oldu.
SourceSpaceX Is ‘The Equivalent Of Dogecoin’ And Bitcoin Is The One That’s Actually Cheap — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The little flows are real. The big flows usually are not.”
Reporting on his 14 May interview with Scott Melker, the piece says he believed Bitcoin had already bottomed near the low-$60,000 range and dismissed a $630M ETF outflow day as hedge-fund basis trades rather than real selling. The flows read was defensible; the bottom call was not. From $77,429 BTC fell −24.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — through the floor he had just called — and only got back above his call price in September, peaking at $86,597 (+11.8%); now $84,009 (+8.5%).
SourceMark Yusko Says Look Past Bitcoin ETF Outflows: ‘Bear Markets Are Over’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“If CLARITY does pass, we probably extend the bear market longer.”
He called the CLARITY Act “a horrible bill” written by big banks and tied the cycle to it: passage extends the bear market, failure pulls the break into “crypto spring” forward from September–October. The bill failed its Senate cloture vote 49–50 on 15 September, so his stated trigger never fired — and price did neither thing cleanly. From $78,275 BTC ran to $82,018 (+4.8%) on 11 May, collapsed −25.2% to $58,566, and after the vote recovered to $86,597 (+10.6%); now $84,009 (+7.3%). Unresolved rather than right — open.
Source‘Horrible Bill’: Yusko Says CLARITY Act Could Extend Crypto Bear Market — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
Said on 11 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. He told Coinage the selling was done and expected a range between the low $60,000s and low $80,000s through the summer. The range was roughly right; the floor was not. From the anchor Bitcoin lost −16.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — below the bottom of his band — before recovering to $84,009 (+20.0%). Anyone who read “the lows are in” as permission to stop being careful wore the whole drawdown.
SourceThe Worst of Bitcoin’s Selloff May Be Over, Says Mark Yusko — Coinage↗ coinage.mediaOutcomes are our read of his stated view against real price, not his own scoring. Every call links the page we fetched, and every quote was re-checked against that page on 20 September 2026; the 22 September and 2 October calls were checked on 7 October 2026. Those two are days old — near-term marks can flip.
Yusko sinyal ya da kurs satmıyor. Bir şirket yönetiyor ve bilinmesi gereken teşvik basit olanı: televizyonda kendi pozisyonunu konuşan, arkasında bir fon ve uzun vadeli bir hedef olan bir tahsisçi.
2004'te kurduğu şirketi — vakıf modeliyle yürütülen ihtiyari ve danışmanlık mandaları. Bitcoin'e yönelik kamusal iyimserliği, ona tahsis yapan bir işten ayrılamaz.
2018 tarihli dijital varlık kolu; Bitwise ile kurumsal bir endeks fonu çıkardı. 2026 tarihli bir söyleşi onu $3.2 billion of assets under advisement olarak tanımladı.
Servetinin kabaca yarısının bitcoin ve bitcoin'e yakın varlıklarda durduğunu söylüyor; başkalarına önerdiği ise „five, eight, or ten percent“. Alışılmadık ölçüde açık bir beyan ve boğa tezinin şiddetini iskonto etmek için bir neden.
Ağ ücretleri üzerinde hak vermeyen yönetişim token'larını — Solana'nın yanında Ethereum ve Uniswap'i anarak — „kind of scammy“ diye niteliyor. Bitcoin'e karşı altcoin çerçevesini, pozisyonunun nerede olduğunu bilerek okuyun.
“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
16 Sep 2026 · tek cümlede değerleme kuralı“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
11 Jul 2026 · bunu pratikte nasıl uyguluyor“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
11 Mar 2026 · pahalıya patlayan çağrı — dört ay erken“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
6 Sep 2026 · kendi 5 Ekim tarihine doğru hâlâ temkinliAlıntılar kendi kamuya açık kaynaklarından alındı; bunlar dile getirilmiş görüşlerdir, tavsiye değildir.
Yusko'nun kendine ait hiçbir mecrası yok — kanal yok, bülten yok, ücretli grup yok. Başkalarının programlarına çıkıyor ve yukarıdaki her çağrı orada yapıldı. Dosyanın arkasındaki birincil videolar, başlık ve yükleme tarihi doğrulanmış hâlde:
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Path to $250K Already Started: Mark YuskoCoinage — the “durability of the trend” interview behind the 22 September call.22 Sep 2026
Mark Yusko: Bitcoin's Rise is Programmed - The Path from Speculation to Global MoneyBitcoin Magazine TV — yukarıda grafiğe işlenen „it's on sale“ söyleşisi.16 Sep 2026
Why Mark Yusko Is Buying Bitcoin Before OctoberCointelegraph — 11 Temmuz çağrısının arkasındaki haftalık biriktirme söyleşisi.10 Jul 2026
Donald Trump Is About To Crash Bitcoin Again | Mark Yusko's 2026 PredictionsAltcoin Daily — $58,000–$63,000 dibi ve 2029 için $600–700k hedefi; grafik penceresinin hemen dışında.8 Feb 2026
Bitcoin ETF Manipulation, AI Bubble & 2026 Predictions | Mark YuskoThe Bureau Podcast — yıl boyunca tekrarladığı vadeli baskı ve YZ balonu çerçevesi.7 Jan 2026Mark W. Yusko (d. 1963), 2004'te kurduğu Morgan Creek Capital Management'in kurucusu, CEO'su ve yatırım direktörüdür. Öncesinde UNC Management Company'nin başında (1998–2004) Kuzey Karolina Üniversitesi Chapel Hill'in vakıf fonunu yönetti ve Notre Dame yatırım ofisinde senior investment director'dü (1993–1998). 2018'de Morgan Creek Digital'i kurdu ve en uzun soluklu kurumsal bitcoin boğalarından biridir.
Two numbers, both dated and sourced on this page. Near term he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model run by analyst Tim Peterson that put Bitcoin's fair value around $105,000 as of 16 September 2026 — against a market price near $75,000. On 22 September he told Coinage the slow path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun. Long term, in a 15 February 2026 interview, he said Bitcoin reaches $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029.
Mixed, and the chart above shows both sides. He called the bottom in on 11 March and again on 18 May 2026, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July — his two red marks. But he was buying weekly through the whole decline, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls are up by roughly a third and by more than a tenth. His 6 September call for a drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low also missed — the date passed with Bitcoin in the $80,000s. His February call had the bottom level ($58,000–$63,000) nearly exact while missing the date by three months.
Önce değerleme, ve yavaş. Metcalfe yasasıyla bitcoin ağının ne ettiğini tahmin eder, dibi zamanlamaya çalışmak yerine fiyat bu gerçeğe uygun değerin altında işlem gördüğünde haftalık alır ve üstüne hassas biçimde tarihlendirdiği dört yıllık halving döngüsünü koyar — önceki tepeden 364 gün, ki bu da bu döngünün dönüşünü 5 Ekim 2026'ya yerleştirir. Kaldıraçtan ve kısa vadeli seviyelerden tamamen kaçınır, ağ ücretleri üzerinde hak vermeyen yönetişim token'larını küçümser.
Yusko grafik değil, bir sayı satın alır: önce gerçeğe uygun değer, haftalık alımlar, tam dibi yakalama çabası yok. Sezgin ne kadar yakın — bunu Trader Passport ile gerçekten ölç.
Şimdi yaklaşımınızı işe koşun. Kendi üstünlüğünüzü canlı piyasa verileri üzerinde — sermaye riski olmadan — gerçek ödüllü ücretsiz bir BuyCrypt turnuvasında test edin.
Yalnızca kamuya açık materyallere dayanan bilgilendirici ve eğitici analiz (söyleşilerine ilişkin tarihli üçüncü taraf haberler, her çağrıda bağlantılı). Finansal veya yatırım tavsiyesi değildir. Rakamlar yaklaşıktır ve sürekli değişir. Spotted an error, or are you Mark? Düzeltme gönder →
Doğrulanmış hesaplar · Kaynaklar yukarıda belirtilmiştir · Puanlama metodolojisi · Güncellendi 7 October 2026
