@ki_young_ju
The on-chain analyst who runs the data terminal half the market quotes — and who changes his mind in public, loudly, with a timestamp. Inside thirteen weeks in 2026 he called an 18-month bear market, told holders relief was coming, then declared the bear cycle over. The relief call paid, the bear call has since gone against him, and the all-clear is still running. He is worth tracking anyway, because he leaves the whole record standing — including the parts that make him look bad.
Kısaca. Ki Young Ju 2019'da CryptoQuant'ı kurdu ve şirketi kripto dünyasının en çok alıntılanan zincir üstü veri sağlayıcılarından birine dönüştürdü. Kamuya açık analizi tek bir fikre dayanıyor: Realized Cap — Bitcoin'e gerçekte ne kadar para girdiği — piyasa değerine karşı ölçülerek boğa piyasasını ayı piyasasından ayırıyor. Bu mercek onu Terra-Luna ve FTX'te erken davranan isim yaptı. Aynı mercek onu defalarca ve alenen kendi tezini bozmaya da itti; en bilineni 2025'te boğa döngüsünün bittiğini ilan edip yedi hafta sonra özür dilemesi ve Bitcoin'in yeni zirveye koşmasını izlemesiydi. Aynı örüntü 2026'da yineleniyor: 29 Mayıs'ta 2027'ye kadar süren bir ayı piyasası, 25 Ağustos'ta «The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.». O seviye söyleyen biri değil — rejim söyleyen biri ve rejimler onda dönüyor.
1992 doğumlu ve Pohang Bilim ve Teknoloji Üniversitesi mezunu olan Ki, 2018'de Kore merkezli blokzincir araştırma grubu Planet B'yi kurmadan ve Nisan 2019'da üniversiteden arkadaşlarıyla CryptoQuant'ı kurmadan önce yazılım mühendisi olarak çalıştı. Şirket, fonlara ve traderlara zincir üstü ve borsa akış verisi satıyor — Güney Kore'nin Chosun Daily gazetesi ona «kriptonun Bloomberg'i» dedi — ve Temmuz 2022'de CME Group'a veri sağlayıcı oldu. CryptoQuant'ın itibarı iki erken uyarı üzerine kuruldu: Mayıs 2022'deki Terra-Luna çöküşünden önceki olağandışı Bitcoin akışları ve sonrasında FTX etrafındaki sinyaller.
Kamuya açık yöntemi bilinçli olarak dar. Realized Cap, bir cüzdana giren coinleri alım, çıkanları satım sayar ve böylece Bitcoin'e fiilen yerleştirilen sermayenin bir tahminini verir; bunu piyasa değeriyle karşılaştırmak ona yeni paranın fiyatı hareket ettirip ettirmediğini söyler. Büyük girişler fiyatı kaldırmıyorsa buna ayı piyasası der. Küçük girişler fiyatı çok kaldırıyorsa boğa piyasası der. Temiz bir çerçeve ve özgüvenli rejim çağrıları üretiyor.
Aynı çerçeve dönüşler de üretiyor ve Ki bunları saklamıyor. 17 Mart 2025'te «#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action» diye paylaştı, 5 Nisan'da bunu uzun bir Realized Cap zincirine dönüştürdü ve 9 Mayıs 2025'te şunu yazdı: «Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… I apologize for the incorrect prediction.» Bitcoin o ekimde yeni bir tüm zamanların zirvesine çıktı — basın zirveyi 126 bin dolar civarında gösteriyor. Bu hata aşağıda grafiklenen fiyat penceresinin dışında kalıyor ama sicile aittir; ve 2026 açıklamaları aynı refleksi gösteriyor: 1 Şubat 2026'da «this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation» yazdı, 29 Mayıs'ta ayı piyasasını 2027 başına uzattı ve 21–25 Ağustos'a gelindiğinde hem dibi hem de ayı döngüsünün sonunu ilan etmişti. Onu, hızla güncellenen iyi donanımlı bir görüş olarak okuyun — kendisine fatura edebileceğiniz bir tahmin olarak değil.
Sources: x.com/ki_young_ju · cryptoquant.com · Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com News coverage
Fiyat seviyeleri değil, zincir üstü rejimler. Ki neredeyse hiç hedef paylaşmaz. Bir piyasa durumu paylaşır — boğa, ayı, yatay, dip yapıldı — ve bunu Realized Cap'in piyasa değerine oranından, kısa vadeli tutucuların kâr/zararından, Bull/Bear Market Cycle göstergesinden (MVRV, NUPL ve SOPR'un 365 günlük ortalamalarına göre kurulmuş) ve borsa ile ETF akış verilerinden çıkarır. Gücü şu: bu ifadeler yanlışlanabilir, tarihli ve hisse değil gerçek veriye dayalı. Zayıflığı zamanlama: bir rejim sinyali yapısal olarak doğru olup yine de altı hafta erken ya da geç kalabilir ve kendi sicili, veriler döndüğü anda rejim okumasını on iki hafta içinde tersine çevireceğini gösteriyor.
Bullish — he called the bottom on 21 August and declared the bear cycle over on 25 August, and has pressed further since: on 21 September he pointed to BTC reclaiming its 365-day average at $83K as the end-of-bear line, the next day posted “Bitcoin bull run just started, but no one cares.”, and on 23 September published the analysts' STRONG BUY consensus for Ethereum. He has also tempered the upside — a 3–5x cycle, not another 10x parabola. It is all a reversal of the bear-into-2027 stance he held in May, so treat the bias as live and revisable rather than settled.
Twelve dated, in-window statements — eleven of them his own X posts, one a quote confirmed on Bitcoin.com News — charted against real price. He is a regime caller, so we judge each one on what price actually did next rather than on a level being hit. The sample is deliberately unflattering in places: it opens with an on-chain all-clear posted 37% above the summer low. For the record beyond this chart window, his headline 2025 call — “#Bitcoin bull cycle is over”, March 2025 — was wrong enough that he publicly apologised for it seven weeks later.
“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.”
An on-chain all-clear — not a target, but a published read that forced selling had stopped. It went out at $80,482, and what came next was the opposite of relief: BTC fell −27.2% to $58,566 by 1 July. Until 22 September no close since had been even 1% above it; that day BTC reached $86,597 (+7.6%), and it is +5.4% today. Four months mostly underwater after an all-clear is still a miss. The indicator was doing what it says on the tin; as a signal of what came next it failed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
The mechanism — profit-taking cascades drag investor PnL for ~18 months — was right for five weeks: BTC fell −20.5% from $73,652 to the $58,566 low. Then it wasn't. He abandoned the thesis himself on 25 August, roughly five months before his own deadline, and on 21 September described BTC's reclaim of its 365-day average as the line everyone watches for the end of the bear. BTC has since closed as high as $86,597 (+17.6%) and is +15.1% today. Early 2027 has not arrived, but the caller has withdrawn the call and price has gone the other way, so we now log it against — changed from open on 4 October.
𝕏 Post“…the bear market could last until early 2027.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways.”
In a long thread telling @saylor to pause buying, he argued Strategy's bid was “more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst” and that weak hands had not been flushed. From $62,662 the flush never came: the deepest close after it was −6.5%, and BTC then ran +38.2% to $86,597. It is +35.3% today. The recovery he said needed a reset happened without one.
𝕏 Post“The market may need a proper reset…” — @ki_young_ju on Strategy's BTC buying↗ x.com“If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.”
Timing this well is rare: $58,566 is the lowest daily close in the entire window, and BTC has not closed below it since — +44.8% to today, +47.9% at the high. But read the call, not the chart. It is conditional on Bitcoin absorbing $1T+ in realized cap, we have seen no evidence that it has, and $84,793 is not a parabola. On 22 September he narrowed it himself, saying he expects this cycle to deliver “3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally”. Structurally “still early, not invalidated” — so, open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
A soft call with a hard shape: relief is coming, but not yet. Both halves landed. From $63,193 the deepest close after was only −1.4%, and the relief arrived well inside “the next few months” — BTC has since run +37.0% to $86,597 and is +34.2% today. Note he framed it as a bear-market bounce, not a trend change; the trend change is what he claimed six weeks later.
SourceCryptoquant CEO Tells Bitcoin Holders to “Hang in There” — Bitcoin.com News↗ news.bitcoin.com“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.”
Called into strength at $73,021 — the risky way to call a bottom — and it has held: not one daily close below that price since, +18.6% at the high and +16.1% today. He hedged with “might see a dip”; the deepest close since was $75,590, still above his call. The obvious caveat is that this is the same analyst who, twelve weeks earlier, put the bear market's end in 2027.
𝕏 Post“Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.”
Four words, posted at $78,974 when CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time since early October. Price dipped −4.3% to $75,590 by 16 September, then broke out: +9.7% at the $86,597 high on 22 September, +7.4% today. On 21 September he posted that BTC had reclaimed its 365-day average at $83K — the line he called the one everyone watches for the end of the bear. Encouraging, but a bear cycle is not proven over in six weeks, and BTC is still well below its 2025 peak — this is open.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.”
Two days after declaring the bear cycle over, he put a shape on what comes next: the top of this cycle gets made by non-US institutional flows, with Korea — no spot ETF, no foreign products for retail, companies locked out of exchanges — as the example of the demand still sitting on the sidelines. It went out at $79,018. Since then the low is $75,590 (−4.3%), the high $86,597 (+9.6%), and BTC is +7.3% today. Nothing in five weeks of price tests a claim about where a cycle peak originates, so it is logged open — but note the assumption underneath it: that this bull cycle has a peak still ahead of it.
𝕏 Post“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY”
Four words and a chart. Read it precisely: he is publishing the analyst-sentiment gauge, not his own target — but it is a bullish signal posted under his name. From $79,093 it cost money first, −4.4% to $75,590 on 16 September, then paid: +9.5% to the $86,597 high on 22 September and +7.2% today. A buy signal that is up within four weeks has done its job, so we now log it played out — changed from open on 4 October. Whether the regime behind it holds is what his 25 August call is for.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“BTC reclaimed the 365MA at $83K and is sitting above $84K. That's the line everyone's been watching for the end of the bear. If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.”
A level and a condition: the 365-day moving average at $83K, and if it holds, FOMO follows. Posted at 09:36 UTC, when by his own account BTC was already above $84K; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $81,169, so read the +4.5% to today with that head start in mind. The line has held: the lowest daily close since is $83,479. The FOMO is less clear — BTC closed at $86,597 (+6.7%) the next day and has drifted sideways below it since, at $84,793 today. Held, not yet chased: open.
𝕏 Post“If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.”
His most specific cycle call yet, in a long post arguing that institutional ownership now damps both extremes: a 3–5x bull cycle instead of a 10x+ parabola, and a milder bear market after it. The post gives no base price and no date for the 3–5x, so there is no level to grade yet. It went out on the day of the window's highest close, $86,597; BTC has since closed as low as $83,479 (−3.6%) and is −2.1% today. A claim about the shape of a multi-year cycle cannot be settled in twelve days — open. It also narrows his 1 July talk of “another parabolic bull run”.
𝕏 Post“3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY”
The same CryptoQuant analyst-consensus gauge as his 8 September Bitcoin post, this time for Ethereum — a published sentiment reading, not his own target, but posted under his name. It went out at 08:44 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $2,753, which has turned out to be ETH's highest close since. The low is $2,668 (−3.1%) and ETH is −2.2% today. Eleven days in, it has not paid — open.
𝕏 Post“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the linked X post or article. Fresh calls can flip as the cycle resolves — the newest call here, 23 September, has eleven days of data behind it and is logged open for exactly that reason.
Teşvikleri alışılmadık biçimde okunaklı: sinyal değil veri satıyor. Bu, token pazarlama sorununu ortadan kaldırıyor ama bir başkasını getiriyor — CryptoQuant'ın ürünü zaten zincir üstü analitik ve onun kamuya açık paylaşımları bu ürünün vitrini.
İş modeli ücretli bir veri terminali — fonlara, işlem masalarına ve bireysel yatırımcılara kademeli planlarla satılan zincir üstü ve borsa akış analitiği. X'teki ücretsiz analizi bu ürünün pazarlama hunisi; ücretli gruplardan daha temiz bir hizalanma ama yine de bir hizalanma.
CryptoQuant zincir üstü veriyi ticari olarak sağlıyor; buna Temmuz 2022'de imzalanan CME Group tedarikçi anlaşması da dahil. Kurumsal dağıtım alıntılanmayı ödüllendirir, bu da güçlü ve alıntılanabilir iddiaları teşvik eder.
Kazancı, yayımladığı bir işlem defterinde değil, kurucu ortağı olduğu şirkette. Sinyal servisi işletmiyor, token tanıtmıyor — dolayısıyla rejim okumasını çevirdiğinde bunun ardında bir abonelik yenilemesi yok.
“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
29 May 2026 · sonradan terk ettiği ayı saati“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
10 Jul 2026 · tutan tek çağrı — hem de erkenden“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.”
09 May 2025 · alenen geri adım — bu pencerenin dışında ama yine de sicildeAlıntılar kendi kamuya açık kaynaklarından alınmıştır; ifade edilmiş görüşlerdir, tavsiye değildir.
Bağlanacak bir video kitaplığı yok. Ki podcast yayınlamıyor ve kendine ait bir kanal işletmiyor — kamuya açık üretimi X paylaşımları ve CryptoQuant'ın araştırma notları; geri kalan her şey üçüncü tarafların röportajları. Yukarıdaki her açıklamanın bir klip değil, zaman damgalı ve bağlantılı bir alıntı olmasının nedeni tam olarak bu.
2019'da kurulan, fonlara ve traderlara blokzincir ve borsa akış analitiği satan Güney Koreli zincir üstü veri şirketi CryptoQuant'ın kurucu ortağı ve CEO'su. Kripto dünyasının en çok alıntılanan zincir üstü analistlerinden biri ve X'te yaklaşık 434.000 takipçiye Bitcoin piyasa okumaları paylaşıyor.
Kamuya doğrulanmış değil. Serveti, finansallarını açıklamayan özel bir şirket olan CryptoQuant'taki hissesine bağlı. Gördüğünüz her belirli rakamı görmezden gelin — hiçbiri teyitli değil.
Yes, and he says so himself. In March 2025 he declared the bull cycle over; on 9 May 2025 he posted “Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong” and apologised. Bitcoin then made a new all-time high. In 2026 he called a bear market lasting into early 2027 on 29 May, then declared the bear cycle over on 25 August. Of the twelve dated 2026 calls charted above, three played out, six are still open and three went against him.
Realized Cap — Bitcoin'e ne kadar gerçek sermaye girdiğine dair zincir üstü bir tahmin — piyasa değeriyle karşılaştırılır; buna kısa vadeli tutucuların kâr/zararı, borsa ve ETF akışları ile CryptoQuant'ın Bull/Bear Market Cycle göstergesi eklenir. Fiyat seviyeleri ya da hedefleri yerine piyasa rejimlerini (boğa, ayı, dip yapıldı) söyler.
Ki, veriler değiştiğinde fikrini değiştiriyor ve itibar bedelini alenen ödüyor. Sizin içgüdünüz buna ne kadar yakın — Trader Passport ile gerçekten ölçün.
Her hâlükârda bunu çözecek tek test kendi siciliniz. Canlı piyasa verisiyle — sermayenizi riske atmadan — gerçek ödüllü ücretsiz bir BuyCrypt turnuvasında işlem yapın.
Yalnızca kamuya açık materyallere dayanan bilgilendirici ve eğitici analiz — kendi tarihli X paylaşımları ve her açıklamada bağlantılanan tarihli üçüncü taraf haberleri. Finansal veya yatırım tavsiyesi değildir. Rakamlar yaklaşıktır ve sürekli değişir. Spotted an error, or are you Ki? Düzeltme gönder →
Doğrulanmış hesaplar · Kaynaklar yukarıda belirtilmiştir · Puanlama metodolojisi · Güncellendi 4 October 2026
