@BobLoukas
Aralık 2018'de YouTube'a “Bitcoin 4 Yıllık Döngüsü” ifadesini sokan adam — ve buna karşı halka açık bir model portföy yöneten kişi. Loukas manşet işlemez; döngünün neresinde olduğunuzu işler, her güncellemeyi tarihlendirir ve alımları yayımlar. Bu da sicilini alışılmadık ölçüde kolay denetlenir kılar — döngünün aşağı, fiyatın başka bir şey söylediği 2026 başındaki dönem dâhil.
Kısaca. Bob Loukas is a position trader with 30+ years in markets, founder of the membership site The Financial Tap, and the analyst most associated with Bitcoin's four-year cycle — a framework he traces to the cycle work of Walter Bressert and has applied to Bitcoin since 2018. His crypto analysis runs through a “4 Year Journey” model portfolio whose trades he posts publicly. The ten dated 2026 calls charted below split cleanly in two: his bearish first half was badly timed — a sub-$50,000 scenario that never came, and a “readying for another big leg lower” post published on the exact day of Bitcoin's March low — and then he caught the turn, calling the end of the counter-trend rally six days before the $82,018 May top, buying 10 BTC at $65,000 in June, and telling followers Bitcoin “isn't dead” at $60,990, which it now holds well above. In September he called for a break of that May high to confirm a new bull market, and it broke four days later; on 1 October he declared a new four-year cycle under way, conceding that his June scenario of a $53,000 low never came. His next targets, the $92,000–$97,000 range before a late-year shakeout, are logged open.
Bob Loukas bir pozisyon trader'ı ve The Financial Tap'in kurucusu; siteyi bir işlem hizmeti olarak değil, “sürekli yatırım eğitimi” olarak tanımlıyor. Kendi hakkında sayfası işin şeklini net veriyor: 30+ yıl piyasa deneyimi, yılda 52 haftalık video güncellemesi, üyeler için bir model portföy ve New York merkezi. Yöntemi adı konmuş bir soydan geliyor — döngü analisti “Walter Bressert'in öncü çalışmasına” atıf yapıyor — ve onu yalnızca fiyatta değil, fiyat ve zamanda yinelenen, ölçülebilir örüntülerin incelenmesi olarak tanımlıyor. Beyan ettiği felsefe kasıtlı olarak gösterişsiz: “I'm a realist. There's no holy grail of trading.”
Kripto çalışması hisse/makro üyeliğinden ayrı: Bitcoin analizini yalnızca Bitcoin Live'da, üçüncü taraf bir platformda, 4 Year Journey başlığı altında yayımlıyor — dört yıllık döngüye karşı yürütülen halka açık bir model portföy. Ayrıca yaklaşık 150.000 aboneli bir YouTube kanalına, yılda belki altı tempoda, her biri tarihli başlıklı ücretsiz video güncellemeleri koyuyor (“It's Not Different This Time”, “Not Done Yet”, “ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd”). Kendi ifadesine göre Bitcoin'in 4 Yıllık Döngüsü hakkındaki ilk YouTube videosu onunkiydi, Aralık 2018'de. Bu birleşim — seyrek, tarihli ve yayımlanmış bir portföye bağlı — sicilini denetlenebilir kılan şey.
Grafiği okumadan önce bir ıskalamanın kayda geçmesi gerekiyor, çünkü burada grafiklenen pencerenin hemen dışında kalıyor ve bu yüzden puanlanamıyor. Haziran 2025'te, Bitcoin 110.000 $ civarındayken, Loukas bir “double cycle blowoff” fikrini ortaya attı — bitişik iki dört yıllık zirvenin birleşmesi — ve “if we've still got sort of a six to seven month expansion to a peak… that would lead us into maybe even a February or March peak” dedi; 150.000–170.000 $ yönünde bir ikiye katlanmayla. Bunun yerine Bitcoin Ekim 2025'te 126.000 $ civarında zirve yaptı ve Şubat 2026'da zaten düşüşteydi. Bunların kesin çağrılar değil olasılıksal senaryolar olduğunu açıkça söylemişti — ama ortaya attığı uzama senaryosu gerçekleşmedi ve bunu daha sonra kamerada söyleyen de kendisi oldu.
Sources: x.com/BobLoukas · his 4 Year Journey videos as reported by NewsBTC, Cointelegraph and U.Today · thefinancialtap.com · bitcoin.live/4yearcycle
Gürültü yerine döngüler, uzun bir saatte. Loukas Bitcoin'i döngü haftalarıyla ölçülen dört yıllık bir döngü olarak haritalar; içine daha kısa günlük ve haftalık döngüler yerleşir ve güçlü bir ön kabulü vardır: döngüler her zamanki gibi çözülür — yeniden test, daha düşük dip, sonra bir zaman bandı içinde taban. 10 haftalık ve 10 aylık hareketli ortalamalarla, döngü orta noktası seviyeleriyle (bu sayfadaki 53.000 $ rakamı tüm dört yıllık döngünün orta noktasıdır) ve duyarlılık uçlarıyla çalışır. O bir pozisyon trader'ı — model portföyün Haziran 2026 alımı üç buçuk yıldaki ilk alımıydı — dolayısıyla avantajı girişlerde değil, dağılım ve sabırda. Zayıflık aşağıdaki çağrılarda görünüyor: “her zaman daha düşük bir dip vardır” diyen bir çerçeve sizi dipte yapısal olarak erken, dibin oluştuğunu kabul etmekte ise yapısal olarak isteksiz kılar.
Bullish on Bitcoin: he bought into the 2026 lows and on 1 October 2026 declared a new four-year cycle under way, while warning of one major shakeout to come. Explicitly bearish on the broader altcoin market.
Ten dated calls from 26 February to 1 October 2026, each charted against real price. Nine are his own X posts, captured verbatim from X's syndication endpoint; one comes from a press report of his dated 4 June video and was substring-matched against the live article. He is a cycle analyst, so the calls are structural (“another big leg lower,” “the end of a counter trend move,” “$53,000 is the midpoint”) rather than tight entries — we judged them on what price actually did next. The arc is unusually clean and it is not flattering in order, so three of the four misses come first: he spent February to April bearish and early, then called the May top almost to the day, bought the June lows, and in September called for a break of the May high. On 1 October he declared a new cycle under way, which closes his June scenario of a $53,000 low in October or November as a fourth miss. The September break has not yet reached his $90,000s, so it, his November–December shakeout call and the new-cycle call are logged open.
“If Bitcoin sees no counter-trend relief rally, and instead continues the downtrend to sub $50k (into March/April), the possibility this type of action induces an early 4 Year Cycle low is real.”
Posted on 26 February — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $71,149 on 15 March. He floated a slide below $50,000 during March or April. It was framed as a possibility, not a target — but the path did not open. From the anchor, the rest of March and April never closed below $65,947, and even the eventual cycle low on 1 July only reached $58,566 (−17.7%). Price went the other way instead: from the anchor Bitcoin ran +21.7% to $86,597 and holds $82,520 (+16.0%). The verdict rests on the level he named, which the moving anchor cannot change.
𝕏 Post“…continues the downtrend to sub $50k” — @BobLoukas, 26 Feb 2026↗ x.com“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower.”
The worst-timed post on the page. U.Today reported the chart's target as roughly $49,000. Posted on 2 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $71,149 on 15 March. When we first charted it, the day he posted was the lowest close of March and April; by the anchor Bitcoin had already bounced, and it reached $74,679 (+5.0%) on 17 March. A leg lower did eventually arrive, but not until July and only to $58,566 (−17.7%); $49,000 was never approached. From the anchor Bitcoin has run +21.7% to $86,597 and holds $82,520 (+16.0%).
𝕏 Post“this weekly chart remains horrendous” — @BobLoukas, 2 Mar 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin dominance bottomed out for the Cycle above 50%, without Bitcoin doing anything extraordinary, highlights the broader promise of Crypto has mostly failed.”
A call that Bitcoin's share of the market had bottomed — i.e. altcoins would keep losing ground. This hub can't chart the dominance index, so we score it on Solana as the tradeable alt proxy, and on that measure it went against him: from $86, SOL dipped −27.7% to $62, then ran +41.9% to $122 and holds $110 (+27.4%). Bitcoin over the identical span is +8.1%, so the altcoin proxy has clearly outperformed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin dominance bottomed out for the Cycle above 50%” — @BobLoukas, 22 Apr 2026↗ x.com“At the $53,000 level, we're tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
From his 4 June video, published at $64,047: the cycle midpoint at $53,000 is where the model portfolio's remaining cash goes to reach a 100% allocation, with the cycle low expected in October or November 2026. His structural claim on the same call — “there's generally always a lower low” — did deliver: Bitcoin fell −8.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. But $53,000 never printed, and on 1 October he closed the question himself: the new cycle's “confirming factors” were in, after a “slightly early Cycle Low (44 months vs 47)” with no “deeper move in June/July.” On 2 October he added that Bitcoin “didn't follow through on my preferred path” and that he “bought back a good amount at $64k.” The low came earlier and higher than the $53,000 he named, so we now score this against him. Bitcoin has since run +35.2% to $86,597 and holds $82,520 (+28.8%).
SourceVeteran Analyst Eyes $53,000 Bitcoin As Final Cycle Stage Begins — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.com“Bitcoin - Getting close now to the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market. $85-$88k area.”
His best call, and the one that redeems the misses above. At $79,826 he said the rally was a counter-trend bounce that was nearly finished. Bitcoin topped six days later at $82,018 (+2.7%) — the May high — and then fell −26.6% to $58,566. The $85–$88k zone he named was not reached in that move; Bitcoin only got there four months later, on 22 September, when it ran +8.5% to $86,597. It holds $82,520 (+3.4%). The level was off; the turn was right.
𝕏 Post“the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market” — @BobLoukas, 5 May 2026↗ x.com“The Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle Journey ‘Model Portfolio’ has made its first buy in 3.5yrs. Picking up 10BTC at $65,000.”
Not an opinion — a posted trade, and the model portfolio's first purchase since late 2022, taking it to roughly a 60% Bitcoin allocation. He was early, as his framework tends to make him: from the day's close of $66,727, price fell another −12.2% to $58,566 before turning. But it turned. Bitcoin has since run +29.8% to $86,597 and holds $82,520 (+23.7%). Judged as what it is — a cycle allocation, not an entry — it worked.
𝕏 Post“Picking up 10BTC at $65,000” — @BobLoukas, 3 Jun 2026↗ x.com“All the Bitcoin and Crypto FUD flooding the timeline is perfectly normal at this stage of a bear market. Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.”
Posted into peak capitulation at $60,990, six days before the cycle low. The drawdown after it was just −4.0% before Bitcoin ran +42.0% to $86,597; it holds $82,520 (+35.3%). One honest caveat: U.Today reported alongside this that he expected 3–5 months of sideways trade before a new cycle began in autumn; that part has not held, because price did not go sideways, it went up.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.” — @BobLoukas, 25 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Very good setup here for Bitcoin to smash through the May highs and confirm a new bull market. More importantly, the recent 4-week consolidation means any solid push through the highs is very likely a fresh new move that has legs (vs a trap) that might not look back until the $90's. Failure to break through sets up a move back to the lows of the range.”
A conditional call, posted at $76,371: a clean break of the May high ($82,018) would be a real move with legs that “might not look back until the $90's”; failure would send price back to the lows of the range. The first half came fast — four days later Bitcoin closed at $86,597 (+13.4%), its first close above the May high. It has not looked back far, but it has looked back: on 9 October it closed at $81,686, just under the May high, and it now holds $82,520 (+8.1%). The $90,000s have not printed, so this is logged open. It also marks a clear shift: in June the same model portfolio was waiting on $53,000.
𝕏 Post“smash through the May highs and confirm a new bull market” — @BobLoukas, 18 Sep 2026↗ x.com“Really solid Bitcoin push here to break the intermediate trend and resume the secular bull trend. As is common in any new move, a nasty shakeout is likely, but I’d suspect it doesn’t come until later and from higher.”
A two-part call, posted as Bitcoin broke out: the secular bull trend has resumed, and the “nasty shakeout” every new move gets should come later and from higher — which he pinned down in a reply to his own post four minutes later: “Later as in Nov/Dec and higher as in $92k-$97k range.” The chart anchors at $81,169, the 21 September daily point, recorded about 12 hours before his 12:36 UTC post, so part of the next day's jump to $86,597 (+6.7%) was the push he was describing, not a move he called. It holds $82,520 (+1.7%). Neither the $92,000s nor November have arrived, so this is open: it plays out if Bitcoin reaches his range before the shakeout, and goes against him if the shakeout comes first, from here.
𝕏 Post“resume the secular bull trend” — @BobLoukas, 21 Sep 2026↗ x.com“With the Sept monthly close, the remaining confirming factors for a new Bitcoin Cycle are now in. The slightly early Cycle Low (44 months vs 47), and lack of deeper move in June/July sets up a possibility of a Cycle that could well (upside) surprise. Versus say the diminishing return idea. But, don't forget that new Cycles (in all assets) generally have one major shakeout, the type to give bears hope, one more time.”
The cycle analyst formally calling the turn: after the September monthly close he declared a new four-year cycle under way, dated its low as slightly early, and said this cycle could surprise to the upside rather than deliver diminishing returns — with one major shakeout still to come. Posted at $83,576; since then Bitcoin has ranged between $81,686 (−2.3%) and $86,490 (+3.5%) and holds $82,520 (−1.3%). A cycle call is judged over months, not nine days, so this is open. It is also the post that ends his own June scenario of a $53,000 low in October or November, scored above.
𝕏 Post“the remaining confirming factors for a new Bitcoin Cycle are now in” — @BobLoukas, 1 Oct 2026↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Quotes are verbatim — X posts via the syndication endpoint, article quotes substring-matched against the live page, both linked on each card. The 22 April call is about Bitcoin dominance, which this hub cannot chart directly; we scored it against Solana as the tradeable altcoin proxy and say so on the card. His June 2025 “double cycle blowoff” miss pre-dates this window and is disclosed in the biography rather than scored here. The 26 February and 2 March posts have since aged out of the rolling price window, so their charts anchor on 15 March; their verdicts rest on the levels he named, not the anchor. Posts made during the UTC day are charted from that day's midnight point, which can precede the post by hours; the 21 September card says so.
İki ücretli ürün, ikisi de abonelik ve hiçbiri sinyal grubu değil. Dikkat çekici olan ayrım: hisse/makro üyeliği kendi sitesinde, buna karşılık tüm Bitcoin işi — bu sayfada alıntılanan model portföy dâhil — sahibi olmadığı üçüncü taraf bir platformda yaşıyor.
Kendi sitesi: haftalık video güncellemesi (yılda 52), model portföy ve ücretli üyelik arkasındaki yazılı raporlar. Bunu açıkça bir işlem hizmeti değil, yatırım eğitimi olarak konumlandırıyor.
Bitcoin ve kripto analizini yalnızca Bitcoin Live'da yayımladığını belirtiyor; 4 Year Journey model portföyü orada yaşıyor. Oradaki abonelik geliri, kontrol etmediği bir platformla paylaşılıyor — bir çağrı aynı zamanda bir vitrinse bunu bilmekte fayda var.
Tarihli video güncellemeleri ücretsiz ve seyrek — yılda yaklaşık altı. İki ücretli ürünün kamusal yüzü, dolayısıyla onları kitabın tamamı değil, argüman olarak okuyun. İncelediğimiz kamuya açık kayıtta hiçbir token, kurs veya borsa referansı görünmedi.
“Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.”
25 Jun 2026 · döngü dibinden altı gün önce“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous…”
02 Mar 2026 · tam mart–nisan dibinde yayımlandı“At the $53,000 level, we're tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
04 Jun 2026 · a level that never printed before he declared the low inAlıntılar kendi kamuya açık kaynaklarından alındı; bunlar dile getirilmiş görüşlerdir, tavsiye değildir.
Loukas YouTube'a nadiren yükler — yılda yaklaşık altı kez — ve her videoyu tarihlendirir; onları bir kayıt olarak kullanılabilir kılan da budur. Bunlar pencere içindeki güncellemeleri; 4 Haziran videosu bu sayfadaki 53.000 $ çağrısının kaynağıdır. Not: bu sunucuda hiçbir deşifre doğrulanamadı, dolayısıyla videolardan hiçbir şey çağrı olarak puanlanmıyor — yalnızca onlara dair basın alıntıları ve kendi paylaşımları.
The Ebb and FlowHis most recent update, nine days before the 18 September post charted above.09 Sep 2026
Signs of a New MarketEarly-September update, posted two weeks before his call for a break of the May high.05 Sep 2026
ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd53.000 $ orta nokta çağrısının arkasındaki alaycı başlıklı video.04 Jun 2026
Not Done YetDüşüşün ortasında bir güncelleme; ayı ve erken olduğu dönemden.16 Apr 2026
It's Not Different This Time2026 düşüşü hız kazanırken yeniden anlatılan döngü çerçevesi.05 Feb 2026Piyasalarda 30+ yılı olan bir pozisyon trader'ı, The Financial Tap üyelik sitesinin kurucusu ve Bitcoin'in dört yıllık döngüsüyle en çok anılan analist — konuyla ilgili ilk YouTube videosunun Aralık 2018'de kendisine ait olduğunu söylüyor. New York merkezli ve Bitcoin analizini “4 Year Journey” başlığı altında Bitcoin Live'da yayımlıyor.
Döngü analisti Walter Bressert'ten devralınan bir zamanlama çerçevesi; Bitcoin'i haftalarla ölçülen yaklaşık dört yıllık bir döngü olarak haritalar ve içine daha kısa günlük ve haftalık döngüler yerleştirir. Bir döngünün, bir zaman bandı içinde yeniden test ve en az bir daha düşük diple bittiği yönünde güçlü bir ön kabul taşır — 2026 için bunu ekim veya kasım civarına koydu.
Kamuya açık biçimde doğrulanmadı. Açıkladığı gelir, The Financial Tap ve Bitcoin Live abonelik geliri ile kendi pozisyonları. Belirli rakamları yok sayın — hiçbiri teyitli değil.
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the 2026 record here is genuinely split: four misses — including a bearish post published on the exact low of March and April — against a top call six days early, a posted buy at $65,000 on a day Bitcoin closed at $66,727, and a contrarian bottom read six days before the cycle low. His June scenario of a $53,000 low in October or November also missed, as he acknowledged on 1 October. His June 2025 call for a February–March 2026 cycle peak also missed. Treat it as a documented, dated opinion — never trade it blindly.
Üç yerde: YouTube'da ücretsiz tarihli video güncellemeleri (~150K abone, yılda yaklaşık altı), hisse ve makro için kendi ücretli üyelik sitesi The Financial Tap ve Bitcoin Live — kendi ifadesiyle Bitcoin ve kripto analizinin, 4 Year Journey model portföyü dâhil, yalnızca orada yayımlandığı yer.
Loukas manşeti değil, saati işler: döngüdeki yeriniz dağılımı belirler ve model portföy üç buçuk yıl kıpırdamadan durabilir. Sezginiz ne kadar yakın — Trader Passport ile gerçekten ölçün.
Şimdi cevabınızı işe koşun. Sermaye riski olmadan, gerçek ödüllü ücretsiz bir BuyCrypt turnuvasında avantajınızı canlı piyasa verisiyle test edin.
Yalnızca kamuya açık materyallere dayalı bilgilendirme ve eğitim amaçlı analiz — birebir alınmış kendi tarihli X paylaşımları ve kamuya açık video güncellemelerine dair tarihli basın haberleri, her çağrıda bağlantılı. The Financial Tap veya Bitcoin Live'ın ücretli içeriğine erişilmedi. Finansal veya yatırım tavsiyesi değildir. Rakamlar yaklaşıktır ve sürekli değişir. Spotted an error, or are you Bob? Düzeltme gönder →
Doğrulanmış hesaplar · Kaynaklar yukarıda belirtilmiştir · Puanlama metodolojisi · Güncellendi 10 October 2026
