@willywoo
The analyst who made “on-chain” a category. Woo doesn't read candles — he reads where money actually moves: investor flows, realised prices, the cost basis of recent buyers. Through most of 2026 that model kept him bearish while the rest of crypto looked for a bottom, and the price mostly agreed with him. Where it didn't, it didn't by a wide margin — his 46k–54k bottom zone never printed. In September, with long-term liquidity returning, he turned: on 16 September he put 90% odds on the bottom being in.
간단히 말해. Willy Woo is one of the original Bitcoin on-chain analysts — creator of the NVT ratio (“Bitcoin's P/E”), publisher of the Woobull chart library, and author of the weekly Bitcoin Vector Lite letter on Substack. His framework is deliberately not technical analysis: he models investor liquidity flows and compares price against on-chain cost bases (short-term-holder price, realised price, the CVDD floor) to say where the market is in its cycle. For most of 2026 that model made him one of the most consistently bearish major voices — and, for the levels that mattered, largely right: he called the March rally a bull trap and it was rejected exactly where he said. He is also on record with targets that never arrived, from $250k in 2021 to a 46k–54k bottom this year — a zone he effectively retired in September, when he called the bottom in at 90% odds.
우는 소프트웨어에서 시장으로 왔다 — 공개된 프로필들은 그를 홍콩에서 태어나 뉴질랜드에서 자란 프로그래머로, 트레이딩으로 옮기기 전 스타트업을 만들고 매각했으며 2013년 말 첫 비트코인을 샀다고 서술한다. 그의 이름을 만든 것은 어떤 거래가 아니라 하나의 지표였다: 2017년 그는 네트워크 가치를 거래량으로 나눈 NVT 비율을 “Bitcoin's P/E ratio”라는 틀로 대중화했다. 이는 최초로 널리 쓰인 온체인 밸류에이션 도구가 되었고, 그 주변에서 자라난 Woobull 차트 라이브러리는 지금도 표준 참고자료다. 현재 그는 서브스택에서 매주 Bitcoin Vector Lite를 발행한다 — “views into BTC's underlying structure through the lens of investor flows” — 그 뒤에 유료 등급이 있다.
The record cuts both ways and the misses are large. On 29 April 2021 he told SALT Talks that Bitcoin “could reach $250K to $300K by the end of that cycle”, later stretching it to $300K–$400K on institutional inflows; Bitcoin topped near $69,000 that November. In September 2025, with BTC just off a $124,457 record, he suggested it “could race up to $140,000–$160,000” — while adding he couldn't tell. It never did. And on 11 January 2026 he posted “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026”: the bearish half aged well, the bullish half did not — Bitcoin fell from $89,212 on 29 January to $67,017 by 1 March, −25% straight through the window he was bullish on. That January post sits just outside the chart below; the seven calls that follow are all inside it.
Sources: x.com/willywoo (verified via X syndication) · woobull.com · willywoo.substack.com · Bitcoin.com News · Yahoo Finance
흐름이 먼저, 가격은 그다음. 우의 분석 단위는 캔들이 아니라 자본이다: 얼마나 많은 진짜 돈이 비트코인에 들어오고 나가는지, 그리고 그것이 떠받쳐야 할 가격 모멘텀과 어떻게 비교되는지. 반복되는 도구는 온체인 원가 기준이다 — 단기 보유자 가격(최근 155일 매수자의 손익분기점), 실현 가격, CVDD 바닥 — 여기에 자신의 투자자 흐름 모델과 자산 간 위험(주식 변동성, 매크로 유동성)에 대한 곁눈질이 더해진다. 그 덕분에 그는 구조와 인내를 갖는다: “Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation”이라고 말하고 실제로 그렇게 생각한다. 약점은 대칭적이다. 흐름 모델은 국면(약세인가 강세인가) 판단에는 강하고 폭 판단에는 약하다 — 그의 방향성 판단은 거기 붙은 구체적 숫자보다 훨씬 잘 버텼다.
Bearish on 2026 from January through the summer — his flow models had liquidity waning against price since January 2025. September is where that changed. On 6 September 2026 he flagged Bitcoin decoupling from equities as it did in 2015, and on 16 September he put the probability that the bottom is in at 90%, calling the market an early bull structure on returning long-term investor liquidity. His longer view is unchanged: Bitcoin in seven figures, but over a 12–16 year horizon.
Seven dated 2026 posts, charted against real price from the day he said them. Every quote below was pulled from X's own syndication endpoint or from the dated article that carries it — nothing is paraphrased. Woo trades in regimes and levels rather than one-line targets, so each card scores the specific claim he made: did the rejection happen where he said, did the level break, did the bottom print in the zone. He was right on the shape of the market in Feb–April and wrong on how deep it would go; the two newest cards, from September, are the first in this window pointing up — ending with his call that the bottom is in.
“This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.”
A three-part call, and all three parts happened. His 27 February post has since rolled out of our 210-day price window, so the chart now anchors at the first covered close, $65,824 on 2 March, and the percentages here run from there. Bitcoin consolidated sideways for roughly a month, rebounded into the mid-70s — $74,679 on 17 March, +13.5% — and was rejected there, back to $65,947 (+0.2%) by 30 March. It later fell as far as $58,566 (−11.0%), then ran +31.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+28.2%). The typo in “repreive” is his; we quote posts as written.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 27 February 2026↗ x.com“BTC sold off WAY TOO FAST in this early bear market and current conditions are setting up to test mid-80s which is the cost basis of short term investors.”
Resolved — on his terms, but late. The framing was right: he said the rally was a bull trap and “NOT me saying the bottom is in”, and from $67,340 BTC rallied, rolled over and cut to $58,566 (−13.0%) on 1 July. The target took far longer than the setup implied. The May rally stalled at $82,018 (+21.8%), and the mid-80s short-term-holder cost basis he named was only tested on 22 September, at $86,597 (+28.6%) — six and a half months after the post, with a deeper low in between. Both halves have now happened, so we move this card from open to played out; price holds $84,359 (+25.3%).
Source‘Bull Trap Forming’ — Willy Woo Says Bottom Not In for Bitcoin (Bitcoin.com News, 9 Mar 2026)↗ news.bitcoin.com“I’d agree with this picture with the rejection at STH price which is 84k and dropping each day. Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation.”
He named the level and the duration. BTC was $71,304; it was rejected immediately, down to $65,947 (−7.5%) in four days, and the “mid bear consolidation” ran for months rather than weeks. Through that whole stretch it never reached the 84k short-term-holder line he flagged as the ceiling — the summer high was $82,018 (+15.0%) on 11 May — before sliding to $58,566 (−17.9%) on 1 July. Bitcoin only closed above 84k on 22 September, six months later; it ran +21.4% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+18.3%). The call was about the spring, and on that horizon the level held.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 26 March 2026↗ x.com“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait.”
His most specific number, and the one that has gone wrong. From $65,947 he was pointing 18–30% lower, with the CVDD floor model at 45.5k. Bitcoin never got there. The deepest close since is $58,566 on 1 July, −11.2% from his post and 8.5% above the top of his zone — and price has since run +31.3% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+27.9%). A fresh leg down could still validate it, but on 16 September Woo himself put 90% odds on the bottom already being in (last card below), which leaves this zone with few defenders.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 30 March 2026↗ x.com“The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k). I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.”
A conditional call, and the condition failed the way he warned it might. BTC was $77,367. It did break 79k — the 30% branch — peaking at $82,018 (+6.0%) on 11 May. But he had added that a structural bottom only becomes likely “if BTC manages to hold this price level above $65K and not break down”, and that “the next 3-6 weeks will be telling”. It broke down: nine weeks later Bitcoin closed at $58,566, −24.3%. No structural bottom in that window, exactly as he framed it. Price has since run +11.9% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+9.0%).
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 28 April 2026↗ x.com“It's almost been a decade since the last time this happened... The last time BTC decoupled from stocks to this degree was 2015 (prelude to the 2017 bull market).”
The first constructive post of the whole window. BTC closed at $79,822, near the top of the range it broke into in late August — up from $69,291 on 20 August. Read the claim precisely: it is not a price target but a regime analogue, equities and Bitcoin pulling apart the way they did in 2015, which he labels the prelude to the 2017 bull market. Price dipped to $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September, then ran +8.5% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+5.7%). That leans his way, but three weeks cannot settle a claim about a multi-year decoupling. It also sits awkwardly beside his own 46k–54k bottom call above, and we will not reconcile the two for him. Open until price picks a side for longer.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 6 September 2026↗ x.com“I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long term investor liquidity returning.”
The turn, stated as a number. BTC closed at $75,590 that day, then ran +14.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+11.6%). Read the claim precisely: it is not that $75k was the low, but that the cycle bottom is already behind the market — on this chart that is $58,566 on 1 July, 8.5% above the top of the 46k–54k zone he pointed to in March, which this post quietly retires. He gave no time frame and no invalidation level. As of 27 September price agrees with him; a close back under the July low would settle it against him. Open.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 16 September 2026↗ x.com결과는 그가 밝힌 주장을 실제 CoinGecko 가격에 대비해 우리가 읽은 것이며, 그 자신의 채점이 아니다. 가격은 종가 기준이며, “이후 최저”는 발언 시점과 오늘 사이의 최저 종가다. 사이클이 풀려가면서 미결 표시는 뒤집힐 수 있다 — 바닥 구간 콜은 사이클이 최종적으로 끝났을 때에만 최종적으로 틀린 것이 된다.
우는 시그널이나 토큰이 아니라 리서치를 판다 — 이 디렉터리의 다수보다 깔끔한 구조다. 그럼에도 짚어둘 유인이 하나 생긴다: 사이클 바닥을 찾아내는 것에 관한 유료 뉴스레터는 바닥이 아직 앞에 있을 때 가장 값어치가 있다.
서브스택의 Bitcoin Vector Lite는 무료이며 유료 등급이 있고, 더 깊은 흐름 모델은 그 뒤에 있다. 구독이 눈에 보이는 사업이다.
woobull.com과 NVT 비율은 오랫동안 무료였다 — 깔때기의 맨 위 역할을 하며, 애초에 그가 인용되는 이유이기도 하다.
정작 중요한 공시는 이것이다. 2023년 5월 Syz Group은 우 및 CMCC Global과 함께 출범한 은행 지원 크립토 헤지펀드 SyzCrest Digital Uncorrelated를 발표하며 그를 CMCC Global & Crest Fund의 매니징 파트너, Ama 펀드 자문, S2F Fund의 제너럴 파트너로 소개했다. 공개된 프로필들은 크립토 기업에 대한 시드 단계 투자도 열거한다. 이 직책들은 2023년 보도에서 나온 것이며, 어느 것이 현재도 유효한지는 확인하지 못했다. 포지션은 게시물마다 공개되지 않으므로, 어떤 구체적 콜이든 당신이 볼 수 없는 장부와 맞물려 있을 수 있다고 보는 편이 안전하다.
“BTC MOVES TO A 6-8 YEAR CYCLE? BTC has been locked into the gravity of a 4 year orbit... it was subject to strong internal forces of its halvening... a clockwork 4yr supply rate shock. Meanwhile TradFi is on a 6-8 year short term debt cycle.”
03 Sep 2026 · 게시물 하나에 담긴 그의 전체 틀“3 things happen at the end of bear markets. 1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles). 2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price 3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)”
05 Apr 2026 · 약세의 해 밑에 깔린 긴 시간 지평“I could see a future where BTC trades sideways for 8-12 yrs remaining 5-6 figures, then 12-16 yrs out a god candle to multiple 7 figures.”
05 Apr 2026 · 절반은 적중 — 강세 쪽 절반이 25% 빗나감“I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.”
11 Jan 2026 · half right — the bullish half missed by 25%인용문은 그의 공개 영상에서 전사한 것; 명시된 견해이며 추천이 아님.
우는 카메라가 아니라 글로 발행한다 — Woobull 차트와 주간 Bitcoin Vector Lite. 그의 영상 기록은 남의 팟캐스트다. 대표적인 출연:
Bitcoin Needs To Adapt Now | With Willy WooLook Into Bitcoin — 위의 46k–54k 바닥 콜 며칠 뒤 녹화.10 Apr 2026
The Bull Market, Institutional Adoption & 2026 Recession? | Willy WooWhat Bitcoin Did — 그가 2026년을 사이클의 진짜 시험대로 처음 규정한 자리.26 Aug 2025
Trader legend Willy Woo: A 80% Bitcoin drawdown again is possibleLess Noise More Signal — 하락 시나리오, 그것이 필요해지기 여섯 달 전.25 Sep 2025
Bitcoin Whales Dumping As Liquidity Crisis Hits | Willy Woo Reveals The EndgameThe Wolf Of All Streets — 이 디렉터리에 도시에가 있는 스콧 멜커와 함께.14 Sep 2025비트코인 온체인 분석가로, NVT 비율 — 네트워크 가치를 거래량으로 나눈 값이며 “Bitcoin's P/E ratio”라는 틀로 소개된다 — 을 대중화한 것과 Woobull 차트 라이브러리로 가장 잘 알려져 있다. 서브스택에서 주간 Bitcoin Vector Lite를 쓰고 X에서 약 110만 명의 팔로워를 두고 있으며, 현재는 @willywoo로 게시한다(이전 @woonomic).
For most of 2026 he was bearish: his on-chain models pointed to a bottom between $46,000 and $54,000, with the CVDD floor near $45,500 when he said it in March. That zone has not printed — Bitcoin's lowest close since was $58,566 on 1 July. On 16 September 2026 he reversed, putting the probability that the bottom is in at 90% and calling the market an early bull structure. Separately, he has floated a much longer-horizon view of Bitcoin trading sideways for 8–12 years before a move to seven figures.
엇갈리며, 패턴은 일관된다: 방향에는 강하고 폭에는 약하다. 이 구간에서 2월의 거부 콜과 3월의 저항 레벨은 정확히 적중했고, 바닥의 조각들이 아직 제자리에 없다는 4월의 판단은 24% 하락으로 입증됐다. 그러나 $46k–$54k 바닥 구간은 끝내 오지 않았고, 2021년의 $250k–$300k 목표는 약 네 배가량 빗나갔으며, 2026년 1월 게시물 — “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026” — 은 강세 쪽 절반을 곧장 25% 하락 속으로 밀어 넣었다.
우의 가장 잘 알려진 지표다: 비트코인의 네트워크 가치(시가총액)를 온체인에서 전송된 달러 가치로 나눈 값. 높은 값은 가격이 네트워크의 경제적 사용을 앞질렀음을, 낮은 값은 그 반대를 시사한다. 그는 이를 주식의 주가수익비율에 대응하는 온체인 지표로 소개했고, 이것이 온체인 분석이라는 분야 전체의 문을 열었다.
우는 캔들을 무시하고 돈을 따라간다 — 흐름, 원가 기준, 그리고 몇 달의 지루한 장을 견디는 인내. 당신의 감각은 얼마나 가까운가? Trader Passport로 실제로 재보라.
이제 어느 쪽이 실제로 돈이 되는지 확인해 보라. 실시간 시장 데이터에서 당신의 엣지를 시험하라 — 자본 위험 없이 — 실제 상금이 걸린 무료 BuyCrypt 토너먼트에서.
