@fundstrat
금융 방송에서 가장 많이 인용되는 강세론자 — 그리고 거기에 숫자와 날짜를 붙이는 몇 안 되는 인물. 리는 Fundstrat을 공동 창업하기 전 J.P. Morgan에서 주식 전략을 이끌었고, 지금은 Ethereum 트레저리 기업의 이사회 의장을 맡으면서 Bitcoin 25만 달러를 외치고 있다. 바로 그 조합 때문에 그의 기록은 차트로 그려볼 가치가 있고, 이해충돌을 눈앞에 놓고 읽을 가치가 있다.
간단히 말해. Tom Lee is a Wall Street strategist, not a crypto trader: Chief Equity Strategist at J.P. Morgan from 2007 to 2014, then co-founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, and since 30 June 2025 chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies — a company whose entire business is holding Ethereum. He is on CNBC constantly, he gives round-number targets, and he almost never gives an invalidation level. Charted over the last seven months the pattern is consistent and unflattering in a specific way: he is early, repeatedly and expensively. He called the end of crypto winter in February, again in March, again in May — the actual bottom was 1 July. But when the market finally broke, on 26 June, he refused to abandon the thesis within 2% of the low. In September he went further — a crypto bull market “underway”, Ethereum to a new high this year, and by month-end Ethereum “much higher” than $10,000 within twelve months — and those calls are still open. Twelve dated calls here: 3 played out, 6 still open, 3 went against him.
리는 와튼 스쿨에서 재무와 회계를 전공해 BSE 학위를 받았고 CFA 자격 보유자이며, 전형적인 셀사이드 경력을 쌓았다. Salomon Smith Barney의 매니징 디렉터를 거쳐 2007년부터 2014년까지 J.P. Morgan 수석 주식 전략가였다. Fundstrat의 팀 소개 페이지는 그가 1998년 이래 매년 Institutional Investor 순위 상위권에 올랐다고 적고 있다. 2014년 그는 독립 리서치 하우스 Fundstrat Global Advisors를 공동 창업해 리서치 총괄을 맡고 있으며, Fundstrat Capital의 최고투자책임자이기도 하다. 이 회사의 「Granny Shots」 ETF 시리즈(GRNY, GRNI, GRNJ)는 2026년 8월 27일 기준 합산 51억 달러의 자산을 보유했다.
크립토 쪽은 더 새롭고 훨씬 시끄럽다. 2025년 6월 30일 그는 Ethereum을 매수하고 스테이킹하는 트레저리 기업 BitMine Immersion Technologies(NYSE American: BMNR)의 이사회 의장으로 선임됐다 — 2026년 8월 말 기준 이 회사는 590만 ETH에 가까운 물량을 보유했다. 이것은 공시 각주가 아니다. 그가 Ethereum에 대해 말하는 것 대부분의 맥락이며, 이 페이지는 그것을 그렇게 다룬다.
그의 실패는 규모가 크고 공개적이며 대체로 타이밍 문제다. 2026년 3월 4일 CNBC 출연에 관한 보도는 그가 1월 말까지 Bitcoin 15만–20만 달러와 1월 말까지 Ethereum 7,000–9,000달러를 예측했다고 기록한다 — ETH는 「간신히 3,000달러를 넘긴 채」 2월에 들어섰다. 2025년 12월 Binance Blockchain Week 무대에서는 한 발 더 나갔다. 「제 생각에 Bitcoin은 몇 달 안에 25만 달러에 도달할 겁니다.」 이 발언들은 이 페이지가 차트로 그릴 수 있는 7개월 구간 밖에 있어서, 조용히 빼는 대신 여기에 적어 둔다. 그의 회사 내부에도 분열이 있었다. Fundstrat의 디지털 자산 전략 총괄 숀 패럴은 2026년 초 Bitcoin이 6만–6만 5천 달러로 되돌리는 것을 기본 시나리오로 봤는데 — 실제로 찍힌 바로 그 구간이다 — 그동안 리는 공개적으로 신고가를 외치고 있었다.
Sources: fundstrat.com · x.com/fundstrat · CNBC · dated third-party coverage (linked on every call)
톱다운, 테마 중심, 목표 우선. 리는 매크로 국면(연준 정책, 유동성, ISM, 구리 대비 금 비율), 자금 흐름, 채택 곡선에서 출발해 관점을 연도가 붙은 둥근 숫자로 표현한다 — Bitcoin 25만 달러, Ethereum 1만 2천 달러, S&P 8,200. 크립토에 한정하면 그의 유일한 진짜 분석 도구는 ETH/BTC 가격 비율이다. Bitcoin 목표를 고르고, 비율을 고르고, 곱한다. 투명한 틀이고 계산도 공개하지만, 그의 Ethereum 숫자가 Bitcoin 숫자의 모든 오류를 그대로 물려받는다는 뜻이기도 하다. 거의 완전히 빠져 있는 것은 리스크 관리다. 손절도, 무효화 레벨도, 포지션 크기도 없고, 「올해」보다 촘촘한 기간도 없다. 타이밍은 남의 레벨을 빌려 쓴다(톰 디마크의 사이클 카운트, 존 볼린저의 추세 모델). 논지와 자금 흐름을 위해 읽되, 진입점을 위해서는 결코 읽지 마라.
척도가 허용하는 만큼 강세이고, 그것도 구조적으로 그렇다 — 그는 Ethereum 트레저리 기업의 의장이며 롱온리 주식 ETF를 운용한다. 이 구간 7개월 동안 약세 발언은 단 한 건도 없다. 가장 근접한 것이 바닥 사흘 전에 말한 「가격이 단기적으로는 뒤처질 것」이다.
Twelve dated statements from the chartable window, each one pulled back verbatim from its own source page before it was scored. Lee gives targets but not timeframes tighter than “this year”, so most of these are judged on what price did next from the day he said it. The result splits cleanly by type: his bottom-calling is early and costly — February, March and May all called the end of crypto winter before Bitcoin's real low of $58,566 on 1 July — a further −27.6% from the May call alone — while his thesis-defending at the actual low was excellent. Result: 3 played out, 6 still open, 3 went against him. His bigger misses ($250k Bitcoin “within a few months”, $7–9k Ethereum by January) predate this window and are in the biography, not buried.
“I think in the next 12 months ETH will have much higher prices than 10,000.”
At Korea Blockchain Week, on stage with Arthur Hayes, who had just called $10,000 by year-end. Lee said that was conservative: past cycles ran 50 to 200 times, and a 25-fold move would put ETH near $62,000. He would not commit to year-end, but within 12 months he expects ETH well above $10,000. He said it with ETH at $2,677. Since then it touched $2,726 (+1.8%) on 5 October, slid to $2,446 (−8.6%) and holds $2,492 (−6.9%). His floor of $10,000 needs +301.4% by the end of September 2027. Nine days later, at Token2049, his year-end number was above $5,000, with $25,000–$50,000 for the whole cycle. Open — and he chairs BitMine, which holds just over 6 million ETH.
SourceTom Lee says ETH could top $10,000 in the next 12 months, calls Arthur Hayes' year-end target ‘conservative’ — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“do I think Ethereum could reach all-time highs this year? Uh, absolutely.”
On the Coinage podcast, with ETH at $2,684, he gave a two-step path: $3,000 in the near term, then well above $5,000 — a new all-time high — before year-end, with $60,000 still “a reasonable view” for a couple of years out. Since then: a high of $2,726 (+1.5%), then a slide to $2,446 (−8.9%), and it holds $2,492 (−7.2%). He repeated the above-$5,000 year-end marker at Token2049 in October; from here it needs +100.7% in under three months. Open — and he chairs BitMine, which holds just over 6 million ETH.
SourceTom Lee says Ethereum could surge past $5,000 this year to new high — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“We believe a crypto bull market is underway, having started in late June,”
In his 21 September note, with BTC at $81,169. His reasons: rotation out of AI stocks back into crypto, tokenization, and the end of the four-year cycle. The start date he gives is fair — Bitcoin's low was 1 July, and he held the thesis there (see 26 June). The rest is untested: BTC ran +6.7% to $86,597 the next day, has not closed below 언급한 레벨 since, and holds $82,846 (+2.1%). On 12 October he went further — “the potential for this to be the largest ever crypto bull market” — but three weeks of sideways trade do not make one. Open.
SourceBitcoin braces for $15.6B Friday showdown as Tom Lee says bull run underway — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The price ratio of ETH to BTC moved to the highest level since Jan 30th of this year and established a new uptrend,”
His favourite tool again, in BitMine's weekly update, with ETH at $2,477 and the ratio at 0.0322. Ethereum itself went round trip: a dip to $2,397 (−3.2%), then +12.1% to $2,775 on 22 September, and back to $2,492 (+0.6%). The ratio he actually called has not trended: it topped at 0.0326 on 21 September and is 0.0301 now, below the level he said it broke out from — Bitcoin has held up better. Still open, but the breakout he declared has not held.
SourceBitmine adds $68 million in ether as Tom Lee sees more upside catalysts ahead — CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“I think it's the first leg up because this was like a catching people offside, moving crypto.”
On CNBC with BTC at $77,658 he called the August rally the first leg up and said his $150,000 target was “still possible, not that far off”, naming the 15 September Fed meeting as the pivot. That meeting has passed and the leg has extended, unevenly: a dip to $75,590 (−2.7%) on 16 September, then +11.5% to $86,597 on 22 September, and BTC holds $82,846 (+6.7%). Direction right so far, but $150,000 is still +81.1% away — open.
SourceTom Lee sees ‘very strong’ September rally if the Fed holds — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think that's being very conservative,”
His arithmetic: ETH/BTC back to 0.04 with Bitcoin at $150,000 gives $6,000 Ethereum by year-end — and he called that conservative. He said it with ETH at $2,511. Since then: a dip to $2,391 (−4.8%) on 3 September, a run of +10.5% to $2,775, and it is back to $2,492 (−0.8%). Both inputs are still far off — the ratio is 0.0301, lower than the day he said it, and Bitcoin is $82,846 — and the target needs +140.8% in under three months. By October his own year-end number had come down to above $5,000. Open — and note he chairs BitMine, which owns the ETH.
SourceEthereum will hit $6,000 as CLARITY Act ‘supercharges’ Wall Street demand — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Upside breakout happened for $ETH / $BTC,”
Posted on X with ETH at $1,890: the ratio had cleared resistance and a broadening rally was underway. It worked, on both legs. ETH dipped just −2.6% to $1,841, then ran +46.8% to $2,775 by 22 September and holds $2,492 (+31.8%). The ratio he was actually calling went from 0.0291 to a September peak above 0.032 and sits at 0.0301, still above where he called it. His cleanest call in the window.
SourceTom Lee says Ethereum has broken out against Bitcoin — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Crypto I think is not really a broken story, but it is going to have price lagging in the near term because the fundamental story is compounding”
Talking to Anthony Scaramucci with sentiment worse than post-FTX and BTC at $59,727, he refused to drop the thesis. Bitcoin fell just −1.9% further, to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — then ran +45.0% to $86,597 and holds $82,846 (+38.7%). Ethereum bottomed that same day. The hedge he added, that price would lag, was the half he got wrong: price led. Called within 2% of the bottom.
SourceTom Lee says crypto is ‘not really broken’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“In other words, the fact that we're up three months in a row means crypto winter is over.”
A BitMine shareholder message, argued from a monthly-close statistic: three green months for Ethereum, therefore no winter. He published it on the exact day Bitcoin printed this window's high, with ETH at $2,370. ETH then fell −33.9% to $1,566 by 26 June — the deepest drawdown here. It did not close back above that day's price until 22 August; it has since run +17.1% to $2,775 and holds $2,492 (+5.1%). The direction eventually paid, but the winter he ended was still six weeks from its low.
SourceTom Lee calls the end of crypto winter once again — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Crypto spring is here.”
Three words, posted on top of John Bollinger's trend-model flip, with BTC at $80,914 — five days from the May high. Bitcoin managed +1.4% to $82,018 on 11 May, then fell −27.6% to $58,566 by 1 July, and did not close back above 언급한 레벨 until 4 September. It has since run +7.0% to $86,597 and holds $82,846 (+2.4%) — a 28% drawdown to be up 2% five months later. His worst-timed in-window call, and a borrowed signal rather than his own.
SourceTom Lee says ‘crypto spring’ is here — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“They're all probably in the final stages or have already bottomed.”
On CNBC's Squawk Box: the worst of the sell-off would hit “this week”, and crypto had already bottomed. The short half held up; the bottom call did not — Bitcoin went on to a lower low at $58,566 on 1 July. 4 March now falls before the chart's price history, which starts on 18 March at $74,005, so the chart anchors there: from that day BTC fell −20.9% to the July low, ran to $86,597 (+17.0%) and sits at $82,846 (+11.9%). The verdict rests on his “already bottomed”, which the moving anchor does not change — the direction eventually paid, this call didn't.
SourceBitcoin and Ethereum price to surge in March? Tom Lee bullish on rebound — CCN via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think it touched it to the penny. He thinks we just have to undercut it once more, and that's the low. meaning we're really close to the end”
At Consensus in Hong Kong. The structure he described — one more undercut of the $60,000 area, and that is the low — is exactly what happened: Bitcoin bottomed once, at $58,566 on 1 July, and has not been lower since. 14 February falls before the chart's price history, which now starts on 18 March at $74,005, so the chart anchors there: −20.9% to the low, then $86,597 (+17.0%), now $82,846 (+11.9%) — those percentages measure the anchor, not his call. Two caveats we won't hide. The $60,000 level was Tom DeMark's, not his — Lee was endorsing his timing advisor. And “really close to the end” meant April in the same coverage; the low came on 1 July, four and a half months and one more drawdown later.
SourceTom Lee forecasts end of crypto winter, names Bitcoin and Ethereum support — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com결과는 그가 밝힌 성향을 실제 CoinGecko 가격과 대조한 우리의 판독이며, 그 자신의 채점이 아니다. 남의 레벨을 인용한 경우(톰 디마크의 6만 달러)는 카드에 그렇게 적었다. 그는 Ethereum 트레저리 기업 BitMine의 의장이므로 여기 있는 모든 Ethereum 발언에는 직접적인 금전적 이해가 걸려 있다 — 그 점을 감안해서 보라. 미결 표시는 뒤집힐 수 있다.
리가 파는 것은 시그널이 아니다 — 그는 기관용 리서치를 팔고, 롱온리 ETF를 운용하며, 상장된 Ethereum 트레저리의 의장을 맡고 있다. 마지막 항목이 정말 중요한 이해충돌이며, 그의 X 프로필에도 그대로 표시돼 있다.
헤지펀드, 뮤추얼펀드, 패밀리 오피스에 판매하는 기관·리테일 리서치(Fundstrat Global Advisors / FundstratDirect). 상품이 곧 관점이므로 관점은 흥미로워야 한다.
그는 GRNY, GRNI, GRNJ를 운용하는 회사의 CIO이며 2026년 8월 27일 기준 합산 51억 달러다. 자산 기준 운용보수를 받는 롱온리 주식 펀드 — 주식에 대해 건설적인 태도를 유지할 유인이 된다.
He chairs an Ethereum treasury company holding just over 6 million ETH (6,028,946 in its 12 October 2026 update). When he calls Ethereum “vastly undervalued” on a podcast, he is talking about the balance sheet he chairs. Treat every ETH call here as an interested one.
CNBC 출연, Consensus, Milken, Binance Blockchain Week. 도달력은 위 세 사업 모두의 유통 채널이다.
“Crypto I think is not really a broken story, but it is going to have price lagging in the near term because the fundamental story is compounding”
26 Jun 2026 · Bitcoin 저점 사흘 전에 한 말“Upside breakout happened for $ETH / $BTC,”
15 Jul 2026 · ETH/BTC 비율은 그의 유일한 진짜 크립토 도구다“Crypto spring is here.”
6 May 2026 · 천장 닷새 전에 올린 글“In other words, the fact that we're up three months in a row means crypto winter is over.”
11 May 2026 · 월별 종가를 바닥 신호로 — 6주 일렀다인용문은 본인의 공개 출처에서 가져왔습니다. 밝힌 견해이지 권유가 아닙니다.
여기에는 링크된 영상 라이브러리가 없다. 리의 산출물은 남의 프로그램이다 — CNBC 출연, 팟캐스트 게스트, 콘퍼런스 기조연설 — 여기에 유료 Fundstrat 리서치와 BitMine 주주 서한이 더해진다. 그의 유튜브 채널은 2024년 이후 아무것도 올리지 않았고, CNBC 꼭지에는 우리가 인용할 만한 대본이 없다. 정확히 인용할 수 없는 클립으로 이 섹션을 채우느니 비워 두었다. 위에 차트로 그린 모든 발언은 그의 말을 한 글자도 바꾸지 않고 실은 날짜 있는 페이지로 연결되며, 그 전부가 이 도시에 뒤에 있는 검증된 원문 모음에 재수록되어 있다.
Thomas J. Lee, CFA는 월가 전략가다. 2007년부터 2014년까지 J.P. Morgan 수석 주식 전략가였고, 이후 Fundstrat Global Advisors의 공동 창업자 겸 리서치 총괄, 그리고 Fundstrat Capital의 최고투자책임자다. 2025년 6월 30일부터는 상장 Ethereum 트레저리 기업 BitMine Immersion Technologies의 이사회 의장도 맡고 있다. CNBC가 가장 자주 부르는 시장 논평가 중 한 명이다.
2026년 내내 그는 Bitcoin 25만 달러 목표를 공개적으로 유지했고, 더 가까운 지표로 15만 달러를 뒀다 — 2026년 8월 31일 Bitcoin이 77,658달러일 때 그는 「제 생각에 150은 여전히 가능하고, 그리 멀지 않습니다」라고 말했다. 그는 무효화 레벨을 공개하지 않으며, 이전 목표(1월 말까지 15만–20만 달러)는 빗나갔다.
He is a research analyst and commentator, not your adviser, and he has a direct financial interest in Ethereum through BitMine. His documented pattern in the window charted here is that his direction has been broadly right and his timing repeatedly early — he called the end of crypto winter in February, March and May before the actual low on 1 July. Three of the twelve dated calls on this page went against him. Never trade a headline target without your own invalidation level.
톱다운·테마형이다. 매크로 국면(연준, 유동성, ISM)을 읽고, 여러 해에 걸친 채택 추세를 찾아, 그것을 연도가 붙은 둥근 목표로 표현한다. 크립토에서는 특히 ETH/BTC 가격 비율에서 출발한다 — Bitcoin 목표를 고르고, 비율을 고르고, 곱한다 — 투명하지만 그의 Ethereum 숫자가 Bitcoin 숫자의 모든 오류를 물려받는다는 뜻이기도 하다.
He chairs BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE American: BMNR), which held 6,028,946 ETH in its 12 October 2026 update — about 4.9% of supply, close to its target of owning 5%. His X profile carries a business label for it. Any Ethereum call he makes should be read as an interested one.
리는 테마를 고르고, 숫자를 고르고, 낙폭 내내 그것을 붙든다. 당신의 감각은 얼마나 가까운가 — Trader Passport로 실제로 재보라.
이제 당신의 접근법을 실전에 써보자. 실제 시장 데이터 위에서, 자본 위험 없이, 진짜 상품이 걸린 무료 BuyCrypt 토너먼트로 당신의 엣지를 검증해 보라.
공개 자료(날짜가 붙은 제3자 보도와 그 자신의 공개 게시물, 각 발언에 링크됨)에만 엄격히 근거한 정보·교육 목적의 분석. 톰 리는 Ethereum 트레저리 기업 BitMine Immersion Technologies의 이사회 의장이며 한 ETF 운용사의 CIO다 — 두 가지 모두 위에 공개되어 있고 그가 밝힌 견해와 관련이 있다. 금융 또는 투자 자문이 아니다. 수치는 근사치이며 계속 변한다. Spotted an error, or are you Tom? 수정 제출 →
인증 핸들 · 출처 위에 명시됨 · 평가 방법론 · 업데이트됨 13 October 2026
