@TedPillows
채점하기가 유별나게 쉬운 형식으로 글을 쓰는 차트-겸-캘린더 분석가다. 레벨 하나, 트리거 하나, 그리고 그것이 깨지면 무슨 일이 벌어지는가. 그래서 좋은 시험 대상이 되는데, 이 시험에는 날이 서 있다. 그는 2026년 상반기 전체를 미리 그려놓고는, 정확히 저점이 찍힌 날에 약세로 돌아섰다.
간단히 말해. Ted Pillows publishes dated technical calls on X and a free near-daily market report on Substack, built from trendlines, MACD crosses, the 50-week EMA and the macro calendar. On our rolling 2026 sample of eleven posts the record is 4 played out, 5 open, 2 went against — and the split is not random. His March–April roadmap was the best forward-looking work on this page: nine weeks ahead he called a pump into $78,000–$80,000 followed by a downtrend, then narrowed it to new lows inside Q2 and a bottom in Q3. Bitcoin topped at $82,018 on 11 May and bottomed at $58,566 on 1 July. Both landed. Then the same feed posted “sellers are in control” on 1 July — the lowest daily mark in the entire window — before Bitcoin ran +47.9%, and called Solana distribution on 5 August, before SOL ran +65.6%. His newest base case — a retrace to the mid-$70,000s, set on 21 September when he sold his last Bitcoin at $85,000 — is open, with half of his own invalidation rule already tripped. The structural work is strong; the day-to-day sentiment reads are not.
Ted Pillows posts as @TedPillows (X user id 3222562058, display name simply “Ted”, blue-verified). Since 8 July 2026 he has also run a free Substack that publishes a near-daily “Crypto & Finance market report” plus occasional essays on trading process. His own description of the project, from the Substack profile: “Turning on-chain and macroeconomic signals into daily market reports, backed by deep research and actionable investment theses.” The daily reports are marked audience “everyone”, but since 14 September the Substack has a paid tier: a post that day put his live trading-portfolio spreadsheet behind “bonus content for paid subscribers” — worth knowing before reading the money section below.
그에 대해 떠도는 이야기 상당수는 검증을 통과하지 못하므로 이 페이지는 그것을 되풀이하지 않는다. 확인된 법적 이름이 없다. “Pillows”는 계정명이고 X에는 “Ted”만 표시된다. 확인된 국적도 없다. 검색 최적화용 사이트 하나가 출처 없이 그를 캐나다인이라고 하지만 우리는 싣지 않는다. 이 페이지에는 팔로워 수가 없다. X의 syndication 엔드포인트는 그 값을 돌려주지 않고, 프로필 엔드포인트는 우리 호스트에서 차단되며, 2차 출처들이 서로 어긋난다(2026년 기사 하나는 230,000이라 하고, 이 사이트 자체 레지스트리는 약 300,000으로 추정한다). 그가 “Binance and Bybit partner”라는 널리 퍼진 주장은 tedpillows.com으로 거슬러 올라가는데 그 사이트는 HTTP 404를 돌려준다. 그래서 여기서도 그렇게 단언하지 않는다. 제3자가 확인해주는 것은 이렇다. crypto.news는 그를 CryptoQuant 기고자로 인용하고, DropsTab은 공개된 시드 라운드 한 건을 가진 엔젤 투자자로 올려두었다. 인칭 대명사는 언론의 일관된 용례를 따랐으며, 본인이 밝힌 바는 없다.
The format is why he is chartable at all. Most of the feed is a named level plus a conditional — “right at the 50W EMA”, “a weekly close below this could push Bitcoin towards $72,000–$74,000” — which is a falsifiable sentence with a date on it. That cuts both ways, and we have graded it both ways below. Eleven in-window posts qualified. Five more were examined and excluded — two of them restatements of calls that worked, so dropping them cost him wins — and each exclusion is listed with its reason in the verified corpus rather than quietly binned.
Sources: x.com/TedPillows (captured via X syndication) · tedpillows.substack.com · crypto.news
Levels first, calendar second. The toolkit is small and consistent: trendline and downtrend breakouts, daily and weekly MACD crosses, the 50-week EMA as the line that defines the regime, liquidity and liquidation clusters, and CryptoQuant-style spot-flow data — all hung on the macro calendar, so CPI, PPI and Fed meetings are usually the stated trigger. At his best he chains these into a multi-month roadmap with sequence and timing, which is rarer and harder than a single price target and is what the March–April calls did. The recurring weakness sits at the other end of the timeframe: short-horizon sentiment posts that extrapolate the last candle — bearish at the low, “distribution” into a 66% rally — where the level-based discipline goes missing and the tape talks instead.
사이클 관점에서는 강세지만 전술적으로는 양방향이며, 약세 목표를 내놓는 데 실제로 주저하지 않는다. 이 페이지에서 두 건이 그에게 불리하게 기록된 이유도 그것이다. 그의 강세 논리는 확신이 아니라 연준과 주봉 종가에 조건이 걸려 있어서, 성향이 한자리에 고정되지 않고 레벨을 따라 움직인다.
Eleven dated posts from @TedPillows, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 4 played out, 5 open, 2 went against, but read it by timeframe rather than by score. The multi-month roadmap was right: on 4 March he called a pump towards $78,000–$80,000 and then a downtrend, on 15 April he put the new lows inside Q2, and on 8 April he put the bottom in Q3. Bitcoin peaked at $82,018 on 11 May and bottomed at $58,566 on 1 July — the first day of Q3. The day-to-day reads were not: the 1 July post landed on the exact low and read it as seller control, and the 5 August Solana post called distribution before a +65.6% run. Note that the March and April roadmap posts are one evolving thesis, not three independent wins — they are charted separately because each adds a timing claim the others do not test, and the one whose unique leg ($100,000 by end of Q4) is still unresolved is scored open, not played out. The 4 March post has now aged out of our 210-day price window, so its chart anchors at 6 March; its grade rests on the levels he named.
“Yes, I still expect a retrace toward the mid-$70Ks.”
A profit-taking post with a thesis attached. He sold his last Bitcoin at $85,000 intraday and said in the same post he was not calling a top; what is graded here is the base case he kept, a retrace toward the mid-$70,000s. The chart measures from the day's CoinGecko mark, $81,169. The retrace has not come: Bitcoin ran +6.7% to $86,597 on 22 September, has not printed a daily mark below $83,000 since, and holds $83,448 (+2.8%). He named his own invalidation — multiple daily and weekly closes above $83,000. The daily half is met; only one weekly close since has come in above it, so by his own rule the thesis is not dead yet, and on 30 September he restated it: “a drop into the high $70,000s before the next leg up”. Open, with the invalidation half-tripped. Cross-checked: TheStreet and investingLive reported this post the same day.
𝕏 Post“I sold my last Bitcoin at $85,000. Why?” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“A weekly close below this could push Bitcoin towards $72,000-$74,000.”
His regime line, with a target attached for once. Posted at $76,555 with Bitcoin sitting on the 50-week EMA; the downside case needed a weekly close below it, and none has come — no weekly close since has printed below the post-day mark. The lowest daily mark afterwards was $75,590 (−1.3%) on 16 September; Bitcoin then ran +13.1% to $86,597 and holds $83,448 (+9.0%). The $72,000–$74,000 target was conditional, the condition never triggered, and the post took no side on the bounce — so it stays open rather than being scored either way, though the downside branch is now a long way off. Cross-checked: crypto.news embedded this post the same day.
𝕏 Post“$BTC is right at the 50W EMA level” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“This means ETH has most likely bottomed for this cycle.”
A big claim on a small move. From $2,442 Ethereum has held — the deepest mark since is $2,391 (−2.1%) — then ran +13.6% to $2,775 and holds $2,686 (+10.0%). His stated obstacle, the $2,550 level, broke on the way up. Two things still keep this open. A cycle bottom is a multi-quarter claim that one month cannot settle. And the actual 2026 low was $1,566 on 26 June, 36% below where he said this — so the sentence is a confirmation of a bottom already made, not a call for one.
𝕏 Post“ETH has most likely bottomed for this cycle” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“This looks like distribution.”
Distribution means smart money leaving before a breakdown, and that is not what came next. From $74 Solana fell just −1.5% to $73 on 7 August, then ran +65.6% to $122 by 26 September — the largest move any asset makes on this page — and holds $118 (+60.1%). The spot-selling data he cited was real; the conclusion drawn from it was the opposite of the outcome. Same-day crypto.news coverage carried the quote and built its bear case on it, which is how this one travelled.
𝕏 Post“$SOL is going sideways. But spot is selling.” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“Ethereum could start outperforming Bitcoin heavily now.”
A relative-value call, and the cleanest hit in the sample. From that day Ethereum ran +43.9% from $1,929 to $2,775 and holds $2,686 (+39.2%), with a maximum dip of −4.4%. Bitcoin over the same stretch went from $66,521 to $83,448, +25.4%. The ETH/BTC ratio he charted is up +11.0% — “heavily” is a fair description, and he named the reason (the eleven-month downtrend breaking) rather than the vibe.
𝕏 Post“ETH/BTC has broken out of 11-month downtrend” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“As long as Bitcoin stays below $60,000, sellers are in control.”
The worst-timed post on this page, and it is worth being precise about why. It was published on 1 July at $58,566 — the lowest daily mark in the entire price window. Bitcoin never printed a lower one. It closed back above his $60,000 line on 3 July, two days later, and ran +47.9% to $86,597 by 22 September; it holds $83,448 (+42.5%). In fairness the sentence is conditional — “as long as” — and the condition broke almost immediately, so he was not trapped short for long. But the read of the day was seller control at the exact bottom, and that is the call being graded.
𝕏 Post“$BTC hit a new yearly low” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“Most of the downside liquidity has been taken out.”
Two claims, both checkable. Ethereum bottoms before Bitcoin: ETH's low came on 26 June at $1,566, Bitcoin's on 1 July — five days later, in the order he gave. And most of the downside is done: from $1,749 the deepest mark after this post was −10.5%, then Ethereum ran +58.7% to $2,775 and holds $2,686 (+53.6%). The honest deduction: the $1,300–$1,400 sweep he floated as possible never happened, so the level was wrong even though the thesis was right — which is why the quote graded here is the part he actually committed to.
𝕏 Post“$ETH is more likely to bottom before $BTC” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“Now, Bitcoin is approaching the $78,000-$80,000 resistance zone, which will be a real test.”
A two-sided map with no lean, so the market gave him both halves. From $76,297 Bitcoin pushed straight through the zone to $82,018 (+7.5%) on 11 May — the reclaim branch — and then failed, giving back 28.6% from that high to $58,566 (−23.2% from this post) — the bigger-correction branch. It has since run to $86,597 (+13.5%) and holds $83,448 (+9.4%). A post that describes both outcomes cannot be scored a hit, so it is logged open. One thing in it was plainly wrong: the $75,000 support he said “held strong” broke, and price went 21.9% below it within nine weeks.
𝕏 Post“$BTC is back above the $77,000 level” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“This could give one final push to Bitcoin towards the $77,000-$78,000 level. After that, BTC will drop to new lows in Q2 2026.”
그의 로드맵 중 가장 날카로운 판본이다. 기한이 붙어 있기 때문이다. $74,297에서 마지막 밀어올림이 예정대로 왔다. 4월 27일 $78,638, 그리고 5월 11일 $82,018(+10.4%)까지 늘어나 그가 말한 구간을 넘겼다. 그다음은 하락이다. 비트코인은 2월 저점 $64,074를 깼고 6월 29일 $59,495를 찍었다(−19.9%). 2분기 안에, 하루를 남기고서다. 바닥은 이틀 뒤 $58,566(−21.2%)이었다. 레벨과 분기 모두 정확했고, 열 주 앞서 나온 말이었다.
𝕏 Post“$BTC has broken out of its 7-month downtrend” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“▫️ A pump towards $80,000 . ▫️ A local top and correction to new lows. ▫️ Bottom in Q3 and a quick recovery towards $100,000 by Q4 end”
A four-step forecast, three steps delivered. From $71,662: the pump towards $80,000 came — $82,018 on 11 May (+14.5%); the local top and correction to new lows came — $58,566 (−18.3%); and the bottom landed on 1 July, the first day of Q3, exactly the quarter he named. The fourth leg is what keeps this open: $100,000 by the end of Q4 needs another +19.8% from today's $83,448, and the quarter starts today; the high so far is $86,597 (+20.8% from this post), on 22 September. Scored open rather than played out so the resolved legs do not borrow credit from an unresolved one.
𝕏 Post“IMO, this is how Bitcoin could play out” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com“▫️ Bitcoin could pump towards $78,000-$80,000. ▫️ After that, the next downtrend will start.”
The first statement of the roadmap, built on a war analogy — Russia–Ukraine in February 2022, US–Iran in February 2026. Posted at $68,287, a mark that has since rolled out of our 210-day price window, so the chart now anchors this card at the window's first day, 6 March, at $70,868; the grade rests on the levels he named, which the anchor cannot move. Bitcoin entered his zone on 27 April at $78,638 and topped at $82,018 (+20.1% from the post) on 11 May; the downtrend then took 28.6% off that high, to $58,566. Both legs, nine weeks ahead. The analogy itself was far too violent — he cited a 40% pump and a 67% dump, and got +20.1% then −28.6% — so the shape was right and the scale was not.
𝕏 Post“Feb 2022 … Feb 2026” — @TedPillows on X↗ x.com결과는 그가 밝힌 성향을 실제 가격에 견준 우리의 해석이며, 그 자신의 채점이 아니다. 모든 인용은 원문 그대로의 X 게시물이고, 각 카드에 링크되어 있으며 검증 코퍼스에 전문이 실려 있다. 게시물은 다른 카드가 이미 시험하지 않는 주장을 할 때만 카드를 얻는다. 구간 내 다섯 건은 재진술이거나 전망이 아니라는 이유로 제외했고 각각 사유를 남겼다. 그중 둘은 적중으로 잡혔을 건이다. X는 긴 게시물을 약 277자에서 자르는데, 이 중 세 건이 잘렸다. 우리는 X가 돌려준 텍스트만 인용하고 채점하며, 보이지 않는 뒷부분은 결코 다루지 않는다. 가격은 CoinGecko 일간 값이므로 장중 게시물은 그날의 값을 기준으로 측정한다. 사이클이 풀려가면서 단기 수치는 뒤집힐 수 있다.
When this page was first published there was no paywall to point at. That changed in September: the daily reports are still public, but there is now a paid tier, and his posts point to it. It is worth knowing where the incentives sit.
The near-daily Crypto & Finance market report on Substack is still marked audience “everyone”. But since 14 September the Substack has a paid tier: a post that day put his live trading-portfolio spreadsheet behind “bonus content for paid subscribers”, and X posts on 21 September and 1 October point readers to an X subscription for “the live spreadsheet” of his buys and sells. The 21 September post charted here ends with that pitch.
A 30 September X post about trading the US jobs data carried a SimpleFX deposit-bonus link — a broker referral that pays on trading activity, not on whether the call is right.
DropsTab lists him as an angel investor with one disclosed seed round (Hybrid, infrastructure, January 2025, alongside Outlier Ventures and others). Analysts who hold early allocations have a position in what they comment on — the general caution applies whether or not it touches the assets charted here.
He is widely described as a key-opinion-leader with exchange ties. We could not verify the frequently-repeated “Binance and Bybit partner” claim from any live primary source — the site it traces to is offline — so treat it as unconfirmed rather than as fact, in either direction.
No course and no token of his own that we could find. The calls on this page were all posted publicly and free on X.
“Bitcoin could pump towards $78,000-$80,000. After that, the next downtrend will start.”
04 Mar 2026 · 로드맵, 아홉 주 앞서“As long as Bitcoin stays below $60,000, sellers are in control.”
01 Jul 2026 · 정확히 저점에 올라온 글“Ethereum could start outperforming Bitcoin heavily now.”
22 Jul 2026 · 먹혔던 로테이션 전망인용문은 본인의 공개 출처에서 가져왔습니다. 밝힌 견해이지 권유가 아닙니다.
링크할 영상 라이브러리가 없다. Ted Pillows는 X와 무료 Substack 뉴스레터에 글을 낸다. 팟캐스트도 없고, 그의 것이라고 확인할 수 있는 YouTube 채널도 없다(이름이 일치하는 채널은 확인되지 않았고 피드가 404를 돌려주므로 여기 링크하지 않는다). 위의 모든 전망이 클립이 아니라 타임스탬프가 찍힌 게시물인 이유가 바로 그것이다. X 자체 syndication 엔드포인트가 작성자, 전문, UTC 날짜를 돌려주는데, 이는 녹취록보다 반박하기 어려운 기록이다. 전체 코퍼스는 — 우리가 살펴보고 제외한 구간 내 다섯 건과 각각의 사유를 포함해 — 모든 카드에 출처로 달려 있다.
X에서 @TedPillows로 날짜가 붙은 기술적 전망을 올리고, Substack에 무료로 거의 매일 시장 리포트를 쓰는 크립토 분석가다. 본명, 국적, 팔로워 수는 어떤 1차 출처로도 확인되지 않으므로 이 페이지는 그것들을 적지 않는다. 언론은 그를 CryptoQuant 기고자로 인용하고, DropsTab은 그를 엔젤 투자자로 올려두었다.
On our rolling sample of eleven dated 2026 posts: four played out, five are still open, two went against. The pattern is more useful than the tally — his multi-month roadmap for the first half of 2026 (a top near $78,000–$80,000, new lows in Q2, a bottom in Q3) landed, while his short-horizon sentiment posts did not: he called seller control on the exact day of the low and Solana distribution before a 66% rally.
레벨에 매크로 캘린더를 더한 것이다. 추세선 돌파, 일봉·주봉 MACD 교차, 국면선으로서의 50주 EMA, 유동성 군집, 현물 흐름 데이터를 바탕으로 작업하며, 트리거는 대개 CPI, PPI, 연준 일정에 걸어둔다. 그의 글은 보통 레벨 하나, 조건 하나, 결과 하나로 이루어지는데, 그래서 채점이 가능하다.
Not for these — the calls charted on this page were all posted free on X, and his daily Substack reports are public. Since September he does sell access: a paid Substack tier and an X subscription unlock a live spreadsheet of his buys and sells. He is listed elsewhere as an angel investor, and is often described as having exchange partnerships, though we could not verify that claim from a live primary source.
공개된 바 없고, 신빙성 있는 수치도 존재하지 않는다. 그의 이름에 붙어 있는 구체적인 숫자를 보게 되면 무시하기 바란다.
Pillows가 거래하는 것은 감이 아니라 선이다. 레벨 하나, 트리거 하나, 그리고 그것이 깨지면 무슨 뜻인가. 당신의 직감은 얼마나 가까운가 — Trader Passport로 제대로 재보자.
이제 당신의 접근법을 실전에 써보자. 실제 시장 데이터 위에서, 자본 위험 없이, 진짜 상품이 걸린 무료 BuyCrypt 토너먼트로 당신의 엣지를 검증해 보라.
