@novogratz
골드만 파트너에서 매크로 펀드 매니저를 거쳐 크립토 CEO가 된 인물 — 그리고 공개적으로 자기 견해에 가격대와 날짜를 붙이고 그 결과를 감수하는 몇 안 되는 대형 비트코인 강세론자 중 한 명이다. 그의 2026년은 그 둘의 차이를 보여주는 교본이다. 숫자를 제시한 판단은 대체로 맞았고, 시장의 분위기를 묘사한 판단은 대체로 틀렸다.
간단히 말해. Mike Novogratz is founder, CEO and chairman of Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY), the crypto-and-AI-infrastructure firm he built after eleven years at Goldman Sachs and a run as a principal and macro-fund CIO at Fortress. He is a permanent-bull-with-caveats: his case for Bitcoin is a sovereign-debt case — a $39-40 trillion debt pile that in his view can only be inflated away — and it barely changes with price. What does change is his near-term read, and in 2026 that read has been unusually specific. In July he put a $60,000–$80,000 range on the rest of the year and said Bitcoin “probably holds $60,000”; it has, but price has since broken through the top of that range, peaking at $86,597. In late June he called the $59,000–$60,000 zone the level that mattered, four days before the actual low at $58,566. But in the same fortnight he told investors the market had “no energy” and “no new buyers” and to wait until March of next year — and Bitcoin promptly rallied 38.2%. In September his instinct that the CLARITY Act would reach the Senate floor was wrong within three days. Two weeks later, with Bitcoin near $84,000, he said $100,000 by year-end “will not surprise me”, the opposite lean to his April view. Three of the ten dated calls below played out, five are still open, and two went against him.
노보그라츠는 1989년 Goldman Sachs에 입사해 아시아와 라틴아메리카에서 채권 사업을 이끌었고 1998년 파트너로 선출됐다. 2002년 프린시펄로 Fortress Investment Group에 합류했고 이후 사장 겸 Fortress Macro Fund의 최고투자책임자를 맡았다. 2018년 그는 Galaxy Digital을 창업했으며, 지금은 나스닥 상장사로 기관에 트레이딩, 자문, 자산운용, 스테이킹, 수탁, 토큰화를 제공한다. 프린스턴 경제학 학위를 가졌고 순자산은 약 $5.8 billion으로 추정된다.
2026년 Galaxy에 대해 알아야 할 핵심은 더 이상 크립토 회사만이 아니라는 점이다. 회사는 비트코인 채굴에서 완전히 철수했고 그 부지를 AI와 고성능 컴퓨팅 데이터센터로 재건했다. 중심은 텍사스의 1.6기가와트 Helios 캠퍼스이며 고객에는 CoreWeave가 포함된다. 이 전환은 잔혹한 크립토 장세 속에서 이뤄졌다. Galaxy는 2025년 4분기에 주당 $1.08 손실을 기록했는데 시장 예상은 $0.92였고 — 주가는 하루에 16.87% 떨어졌다 — 이어 2026년 1분기에는 디지털 자산 가격 하락으로 $216 million의 순손실을 냈으며 매출은 22% 감소해 약 $10 billion이 됐다. 그러니 그가 강세라고 말할 때, 그는 돈을 잃어온 장부에 대해, 그리고 사업의 나머지 절반이 이제 AI 기업에 전기를 파는 자리에서 말하고 있는 것이다. 두 사실 모두 기록에 남아야 한다.
Sources: galaxy.com · x.com/novogratz · dated third-party coverage (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, Benzinga, Stocktwits, The Daily Hodl)
톱다운 매크로, 국가부채가 먼저. 노보그라츠는 비트코인을 재정 건전성의 성적표로 본다. 재정적자, GDP 대비 부채의 경로, 달러, 그리고 그 때문에 연준이 떠밀려 하게 되는 일들이다. 거기서 그는 자금 흐름과 시장의 배관으로 내려간다 — 한계 매수자는 누구인지, 투기 자금이 AI 주식이나 스포츠 베팅으로 옮겨갔는지, Strategy의 대차대조표가 신뢰에 무엇을 하고 있는지 — 그리고 그다음에야 가격대를 말한다. 펀드 수장으로서는 드물게 그는 그 레벨을 소리 내어 말한다. 한 해의 구간, 중요한 지지 구간, 지지가 지켜졌는지 알려줄 숫자. 그의 최대 강점은 압박받는 구간을 짚어내는 것이고, 최대 약점은 심리 전환의 타이밍으로, 그는 저점 며칠 전에 가장 비관적이었던 적이 여러 번 있다.
Structurally bullish on Bitcoin for debt-and-debasement reasons that do not move with price, and turning more constructive near term: his July base case was $60k–$80k, but by late September, with BTC above that ceiling, he said $100k by year-end would not surprise him.
Ten dated statements from a rolling 2026 sample — seven from dated third-party coverage, two from his own X account, one from his own podcast's clip — each re-fetched from its source and confirmed verbatim on that page before it was charted. The split below is the point of the dossier: when Novogratz named a number he was mostly right, and when he described the market's mood he was mostly wrong, sometimes within the same week. The 27 June and 24 June cards are three days apart and pull in opposite directions; both are here.
“I still like the chart. It will not surprise me if we're at $100K by year end.”
Said on All Things Markets, the podcast he co-hosts with Anthony Scaramucci, in the episode published on 26 September; the show's own account posted the clip two days later. It is a softer claim than a target (“will not surprise me”), but it names a level and a deadline, and it marks a turn. In April he said it was “not my prediction” that Bitcoin breaks $100,000 this year, and in July his base case topped out at $80,000. From $84,076 BTC has traded between $83,479 (−0.7%) and $86,490 (+2.9%) and sits at $84,009 (−0.1%) today, still needing +19% to reach $100k. The deadline is 31 December, after this chart ends, so it is logged open. The card is dated to the episode, not the clip; the episode discusses the 15 September Senate vote, so it was recorded after it.
𝕏 Post“It will not surprise me if we're at $100K by year end” — All Things Markets clip on X, posted 28 Sep 2026 (episode of 26 Sep 2026)↗ x.com“Clarity isn't dead!! Lots of negotiating over the weekend. My instinct is the bill makes it to the floor. It all depends on if we get the White House to move on ethics to see if we get a law.”
The CLARITY Act was the first item on his own list of what Bitcoin needed to reach $100k, so this was a market call as much as a political one — and it was falsifiable. It failed: the bill lost its procedural Senate vote on 15 September, three days later, short of the 60 needed. So the falsifiable half of the post was wrong inside three days — but the tape never punished it. From $77,204 BTC dipped to $75,590 (−2.1%), then ran to $86,597 (+12.2%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+8.8%) today. Wrong on the bill, right side of the price: logged open rather than against, because the chart does not support scoring it a loss. His own verdict the morning after: “Govt feels broken.”
𝕏 Post“Clarity isn't dead!!” — Mike Novogratz on X, 12 Sep 2026↗ x.com“It's the govts inability to deal with its spending addiction that keeps me bullish BTC even in a year where the energy in the crypto space is low.”
Posted on the July deficit print — $334bn in, $766bn out, a $432bn hole in one month — with Bitcoin flat on its back near the lows. He stayed long the thesis anyway, and it worked: from $63,409 BTC dipped only −0.9% to $62,844 before running +36.6% to $86,597, and it is +32.5% at $84,009 today. The cleanest bullish call in this sample.
SourceUS fiscal deficits keep Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz bullish on Bitcoin (The Daily Hodl, reporting his 13 Aug X post)↗ dailyhodl.com“I think Bitcoin probably holds $60,000. There's too many people who have bought into the Bitcoin story as its own store of value for it to go away”
His most precise call of the year: a base case of $60,000–$80,000 for the rest of 2026, with $100k requiring three things he named — the Clarity Act, Fed cuts and a reignited buyer base. The floor held. From $64,670 the lowest BTC has traded is $62,773 (−2.9%), comfortably above $60k. The ceiling did not hold: BTC first closed above $80,000 on 28 August, peaked at $86,597 (+33.9%), 8.2% through the top of his range, and trades at $84,009 (+29.9%) today, some 5.0% over the $80,000 top. The floor call is what is charted here and it held; the top of the range has broken, so the range as a whole was set too low. None of his three $100k conditions has been met and $100k has not come, though by 26 September he was saying it would not surprise him (see that card).
SourceBillionaire investor says Bitcoin could hit $100,000 only if these things happen (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ sg.finance.yahoo.com“Every young kid who used to buy Solana is buying Hynix or some memory company”
An observation about where speculative money had gone, not a price target — but it was a dated claim that Solana's marginal buyer had left, and charted against price it aged badly. From $76.31 SOL dipped just −5.8% to $71.89, then ran +60.0% to $122.08 and holds $118.17 (+54.9%) — outperforming the Bitcoin he was defending in the same interview. Logged went against on the evidence, with the caveat that he never put a number on SOL.
SourceBillionaire investor says Bitcoin could hit $100,000 only if these things happen (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ sg.finance.yahoo.com“Bessent came and piled on as a strong dollar guy. You know, strong dollar is weak Bitcoin.”
He explained the sell-off as a “MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence” compounded by a hawkish Fed and a Treasury Secretary suddenly talking the dollar up — with Strategy sitting on roughly $14bn of unrealised losses and traders, in his words, trying to “jam Bitcoin super down and explode him.” It is a diagnosis, not a target, so it is logged open. Worth noting what happened next: he said it at $59,495, two days before the low at $58,566 (−1.6%), after which BTC rallied +45.6% to $86,597 and now sits +41.2% higher.
SourceBillionaire investor reveals key reasons behind Bitcoin's decline (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“I wish I had compared the Alibaba chart and the Bitcoin chart before I bought it,”
On his podcast he called a hold of the $59,000–$60,000 area “stunningly important”, said a break would open the door to $45,000, and gave the market a tripwire for the following week: around $55,000 meant lower to come, near $62,000 meant the support had held. The tripwire fired bullish. From $60,022 the low was $58,566 (−2.4%) on 1 July — within touching distance of his zone and four days ahead of the actual bottom — then $62,554 printed on 4 July and BTC ran +44.3% to $86,597. His $45,000 never came. The even-odds bet he attached to it — $45k before $85k — has now resolved: BTC closed above $85,000 on 22 September without revisiting $45k.
SourceGalaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says a turn in Alibaba could signal Bitcoin has bottomed (Stocktwits / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“Right now, it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers”
Debating Anthony Scaramucci, he argued the bid had simply gone — and told long-term investors to wait until “March of next year before you scratch your head”. Six days later Bitcoin bottomed. From $62,662 it fell only −6.5% to $58,566 and then rallied +38.2% to $86,597, sitting +34.1% higher today — and it did it without the Fed pivot he said the debasement trade was waiting for. A dated, falsifiable read on sentiment that the tape refuted inside three months.
SourceBillionaire investor issues Bitcoin warning — why he's ‘worried’ about BTC's future (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“We actually need inflation”
The engine under every bullish thing he says: with US debt near $39.2 trillion, his view is that Washington cannot grow out of it and must quietly inflate it away — run 4% while promising 2% for a decade — with the risk being that expectations unanchor and the managed burn becomes a spiral. That is a multi-year macro thesis with no level and no deadline, so it is logged open. For the record, BTC is +26.7% since, from $66,293 to $84,009, having first fallen −11.7% to $58,566.
SourceVeteran investor reveals one way out of $40 trillion U.S. debt (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“It's not my prediction that we break [$100,000] this year”
Said on Galaxy's Q1 earnings call, the same day the firm reported a $216 million net loss. A rare bull publicly refusing a bullish number: he argued a move back over $100k needed Fed easing that “ugly inflation prints” from the war in Iran would prevent. So far he is right — from $77,367 the highest BTC has managed is $86,597 (+11.9%), and it is $84,009 (+8.6%) today, needing +19% in under three months to prove him wrong. But the call runs to year-end, past this chart, so it stays open rather than scored. Note the cost of the same view being early: BTC fell −24.3% to $58,566 in between. He has since softened it: on 26 September he said $100k by year-end would not surprise him (charted separately).
SourceBitcoin won't crack $100K this year, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.comOutcomes are our read of his stated bias against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring. Each card is dated by when the words were actually said — the source's own publication date, or the tweet's timestamp, or a date the page itself states (the 28 April card is a Q1 earnings call the article names explicitly; the 26 September card is dated to the podcast episode, not the clip posted two days later). Anything whose horizon runs past this chart window is logged still open, never as a win. Near-term marks can flip.
노보그라츠는 포트폴리오를 가진 논평가가 아니다 — 그는 크립토 활동에, 그리고 점점 더 AI용 전력에 매출이 달려 있는 나스닥 상장사의 창업자이자 CEO, 이사회 의장이며 가장 큰 공적 얼굴이다. 그의 X 계정에는 공식 Galaxy 소속 배지가 붙어 있다. 그가 말하는 모든 것은 그 의자에서 나온다.
그가 세웠고, 그가 운영하고, 그가 이사회를 이끈다. Galaxy는 기관을 상대로 트레이딩, 대출, 자산운용, 스테이킹, 수탁을 한다 — 즉 더 활발한 크립토 시장은 곧바로 더 나은 분기다. 회사는 2026년 1분기에 $216m 손실을 냈고 매출은 22% 줄어 약 $10bn이 됐다. 그 전 2025년 4분기 부진은 주가를 한 세션에 16.87% 끌어내렸다.
Galaxy는 비트코인 채굴에서 완전히 철수하고 그 부지를 AI·고성능 컴퓨팅 데이터센터로 바꿨다 — 텍사스의 1.6GW Helios 캠퍼스, CoreWeave를 포함한 고객, 텍사스의 두 번째 500에이커 부지, 그리고 $75m 규모의 경기장 명명권 계약. 그의 사업 절반은 이제 그가 크립토의 매수세를 빨아갔다고 지목한 바로 그 AI 붐에서 돈을 번다 — 그가 투기 자금이 어디로 갔는지 설명할 때 염두에 둘 만한 사실이다.
그의 순자산은 약 $5.8 billion으로 추정되며 대부분 Galaxy와 디지털 자산에 묶여 있고, 그는 크립토 입법을 공개적으로 로비한다 — 위 콜의 CLARITY Act는 그 자신의 회사가 수혜를 볼 법안이다. 보유자들과 이해가 일치하며, 그 이해관계를 공개하고 있다.
“I think Bitcoin probably holds $60,000.”
20 Jul 2026 · 맞았던 발언“Right now, it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers”
24 Jun 2026 · 저점 엿새 전“Govt feels broken. 18 months of work between our industry, Democrats, and Republicans, and Clarity falls apart on the 5-yard line,”
16 Sep 2026 · 자신의 직감이 빗나간 뒤인용문은 본인의 공개 출처에서 가져왔습니다. 밝힌 견해이지 권유가 아닙니다.
There is no video library to link — Novogratz hosts no YouTube channel of his own, and Galaxy's is corporate. His market talk lives in other people's programmes and on X, which is exactly why every call above links to a dated page carrying the quoted words. The appearances charted here are the SALT and All-In Markets podcasts with Anthony Scaramucci (13–24 Jun), his own All Things Markets episode with Scaramucci (27 Jun), a further podcast recap (29 Jun), a July interview (20 Jul), Galaxy's Q1 earnings call (28 Apr), his own X posts of 13 Aug and 12 Sep, and the 26 Sep All Things Markets episode.
Galaxy Digital(NASDAQ: GLXY)의 창업자이자 CEO 겸 이사회 의장이다. 골드만삭스에서 11년을 보내며 1998년 파트너가 됐고, 이후 프린시펄이자 매크로 펀드 CIO로 Fortress Investment Group에 합류했으며 2018년 Galaxy를 창업했다. 프린스턴 경제학 학위를 가졌고 순자산은 약 58억 달러로 추정되며, 시장에서 가장 많이 인용되는 기관계 비트코인 강세론자 중 한 명이다.
His stated 2026 base case, given in July, was a $60,000–$80,000 range for the rest of the year; Bitcoin has since broken above the top of it. He said in April that it is “not my prediction” that Bitcoin breaks $100,000 this year, and named three conditions for six figures: the CLARITY Act passing, the Fed cutting rates, and a new buyer base. None has happened, but on 26 September he said $100,000 by year-end “will not surprise me”. Longer term he argues US debt can only be inflated away, which is his structural bull case.
Mixed, and the chart above says so: three of ten dated 2026 calls played out, five are still open and two went against him. He named the $59k–$60k bottom zone four days before the low and his $60,000 floor has held — but he also told investors in late June there were “no new buyers” and to wait until March 2027, six days before a 38.2% rally, and his September instinct that the CLARITY Act would reach the Senate floor failed within three days.
그는 펀드와 기업의 경영자이지 인가받은 투자자문이 아니며, 그의 회사 매출은 그가 논평하는 바로 그 시장에 달려 있다 — Galaxy는 기관을 상대로 크립토를 매매·대출·운용하고, 그 자신은 크립토 입법을 공개적으로 로비한다. 여기서의 전적은 실제로 엇갈린다. 그의 견해는 기록되고 날짜가 있으며 이해관계가 있는 의견으로 다루되, 결코 맹목적으로 따라 매매하지 말라.
노보그라츠는 국가부채에서 출발해 톱다운으로 내려오고, 그다음 구간을 말한 뒤 그 안에서 산다. 당신의 직감은 얼마나 가까운가 — Trader Passport로 실제로 재보라.
이제 당신의 접근법을 실전에 써보자. 실제 시장 데이터 위에서, 자본 위험 없이, 진짜 상품이 걸린 무료 BuyCrypt 토너먼트로 당신의 엣지를 검증해 보라.
