@MerlijnTrader
한 번에 하나의 아이디어만, 전부 대문자로, 주석이 달린 차트 한 장과 함께 올리는 네덜란드 차트 계정: 올해는 2018 / 2022 / 2017과 운을 맞추고 있다, 그리고 이것이 그 결말을 정하는 레벨이다. 발행량이 많고 아주 읽기 쉬우며 — 이 장르에서는 드물게 — 거의 항상 나중에 확인할 수 있는 숫자가 붙어 있다. 그래서 확인해 보았다.
간단히 말해. Merlijn The Trader is one of the loudest pattern accounts on X (~380K followers) and a much smaller YouTube channel (16.2K). The method is consistent: take a historical analogue — the 2022 bottom, the 2018 death cross, August 2017 — overlay it on the present chart, and name the one level that confirms or kills it. That makes him easy to grade, and the grade is genuinely mixed. His July 2026 bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether landed within days of the actual turn. His June 2026 “spring to $50K” road-map missed on both legs while price ran 42% the other way, and his April death-cross analogue pointed at a crash that never came. His September “Rektember” warning was followed by the month's rally; since mid-September he has been loudly bullish again (“don't wait for $50K”, “road to $170K”), and those calls are still open. He is also a paid-promotion business — his own link page sells “Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — which belongs in the frame next to the charts.
Merlijn은 @MerlijnTrader로 약 38만 명의 팔로워에게 글을 올리며, 같은 일일 논지를 영상으로 되풀이하는 훨씬 작은 YouTube 채널(구독자 1.62만, 2021년 6월부터 활동, 누적 조회수 약 110만)을 함께 운영한다. 이 X 계정에는 @cryptorover 소속 배지 — Crypto Rover의 비즈니스 라벨 — 가 달려 있어, 두 계정은 우연히 의견이 일치하는 독립된 목소리가 아니라 같은 미디어 운영 안에 있다. 그의 YouTube 채널은 자기 프로젝트를 분명히 밝힌다: “The mission: turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”, 실시간으로 기록 중.
He is a commentator and marketer, not a fund. His public link page describes him as a consultant and business coach, invites DMs “for Business/Partnerships”, and sells “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages” — i.e. projects can buy promotion from the same account that publishes the analysis. For honesty, note the big out-of-window calls too: in August 2025 he pushed back on $124K being the top (“0/30 peak indicators have triggered”), and in November 2025 he called the fear “manufactured” and the cycle only at “50% progress”, “not exit liquidity season”. In the seven months this page charts, Bitcoin never traded above $86,597 and printed $58,566 on 1 July 2026 — nowhere near $124K. Those posts are outside the price window so they are not charted, but they belong on the record.
Sources: x.com/MerlijnTrader (posts captured via x_capture.py) · youtube.com/@Merlijntrader (upload titles verified via oEmbed, dates from the video page) · linktr.ee/merlijnthetrader
프랙탈 우선의 기술적 분석. 엔진은 유비다: 지금과 차트가 닮은 과거 연도를 찾고(2017, 2018, 2022), 구조가 반복된다고 가정한 뒤, 그것을 증명할 레벨을 지목한다. 그 주위로 와이코프 축적 국면(spring, mark-up), 이동평균 교차, Stochastic RSI, 약 30개 사이클 고점 지표 대시보드, 그리고 확증용으로 온체인·매크로 헤드라인(검증자 출금 대기열, 연준 금리 기대, ETF 신청)을 쓴다. 강점은 반증 가능성이다 — “$60K is the decision”이나 “DCA zone $48–59K” 같은 숫자에 스스로를 묶는다. 약점은 같은 약속의 뒷면이다: 유비가 반복되지 않으면 결론은 단지 이른 것이 아니라 뒤집히고, 그의 글에는 독자를 위한 포지션 크기나 무효화 가격이 거의 없다.
구조적으로 강세 — 반복되는 결론은 바닥은 이미 지났고 군중이 그것을 팔았다는 것이다. 이 표본의 약세 글들은 단기적이고 조건부이며, 강세 글들이 그의 본 논지다.
Twelve dated calls of his own, charted against real CoinGecko price. Ten are X posts fetched back with their text and timestamp intact; two are the titles of his own YouTube uploads, dated from the video page. The sample is deliberately not a highlight reel: it includes the two July bottom calls that landed (BTC and ETH, within days of the turn), the June road-map that missed on both legs, the April death-cross analogue that pointed at a −67% repeat which never arrived, and the May “Solana is the loser” post that Solana then outperformed on. Note what this is: twelve calls from an account that publishes many times a day, picked because they contained a checkable number — not a complete log of everything he said. His 2025 “$124K is not the top / 50% through the cycle” posts fall outside the price window; they are in the biography above, unscored.
“$BTC BULLS THIS ISN'T WHAT YOU WANTED TO SEE. Bitcoin breakdown confirmed. All eyes on $80,500 now. Hold it, and this is just a shakeout. Lose it, and I expect more pain.”
A two-branch call with the level spelled out. Bitcoin was $84,449 that day, so $80,500 sat 4.7% below it. A day later it is $83,145 (−1.5%), still $2,645 above his line, so neither branch has triggered. The next morning he posted the same idea in more detail as a Wyckoff plan: a backup to $81K–$82K, then $90K if that holds. Open.
𝕏 Post“All eyes on $80,500 now.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K”
Published the day Bitcoin closed at $86,597, the highest price in this page's window. The title names a $170,000 destination, +96.3% away, with no date attached. We have the title, not a transcript, so we grade the title. A week on, Bitcoin is $83,145, −4.0% below him, and no day has closed higher since. A multi-year target: open.
Source“And So It Begins… Bitcoin’s Road To $170K” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 22 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In”
A bottom call made one day after Bitcoin's lowest September close, $75,590 on the 16th. He published at $76,147 and told viewers not to wait for $50,000. Twelve days later no day in our series has closed below his day's price. The high since is $86,597 (+13.7%) and Bitcoin trades at $83,145 (+9.2%). A fortnight is too short to grade a “bottom is in” call, so it stays open, but so far price agrees with him.
Source“PLEASE Don’t Wait For $50K Bitcoin… The Bottom Is Already In” — Merlijn The Trader (his own upload, 17 Sep 2026)↗ youtube.com“REKTEMBER IS HERE: … Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September. Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him. … Rektember arrived without the safety net.”
A rate-scare warning with no level attached, so we graded it on the month it named. From $77,416 Bitcoin dipped to $75,590 (−2.4%) on 16 September. It then ran to $86,597 (+11.9%) on the 22nd and trades at $83,145 (+7.4%) with September all but over. The month did not bleed; it was the month the rally resumed. Went against.
𝕏 Post“Rektember arrived without the safety net.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled.”
The premise checks out — our daily series has Bitcoin going $62,820 → $77,658 across August, +23.6%, against his quoted +24.39%. The conclusion is a Q4 call, and Q4 starts on Thursday. Since the post, Bitcoin has dipped to $75,590 (−2.7%), run to $86,597 (+11.5%), and sits at $83,145 (+7.1%). That was a good September for his thesis, but the claim is that Q4 triples like 2017. Open.
𝕏 Post“When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling. Price is pinned right below it at $65,300. As long as that level caps us, the range holds and a dip toward $54K liquidity is on the table.”
Two branches, and the tape took the one he named as the invalidation. The ceiling did hold for three more weeks — from $65,344 Bitcoin sagged to $62,773 (−3.9%) by 2 August and closed under $67K every single day until 20 August. Then it reclaimed the level and ran: high since $86,597 (+32.5%), now $83,145 (+27.2%). The $54K liquidity he pointed at never got close — the lowest print is $8,773 above it. Range read right, downside target never armed: open, not scored.
𝕏 Post“$67K was support. Now it's a ceiling.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“2,600,000 ETHEREUM QUEUED TO EXIT IN SEPTEMBER. TODAY THE QUEUE IS EMPTY. … That queue cleared straight into a 47% drawdown. Whoever wanted out is already out. That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
Well timed. Ether was $1,953; the worst it did afterwards was $1,843 (−5.6%), then it ran to $2,775 (+42.1%) and trades at $2,666 (+36.5%). The reasoning was an emptied validator exit queue rather than a chart, and the call landed within days of the low.
𝕏 Post“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN TAPPED ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE HIGH TWICE. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022. … 2026: price fell to the 2021 top, tapped it twice, and it's up 13% this month. Same structure.”
The 2022 analogue worked here. From $66,077 Bitcoin dipped only to $62,773 (−5.0%), then ran to $86,597 (+31.1%) and sits at $83,145 (+25.8%). His “up 13% this month” also checks: the July low was $58,566 on the 1st, so +12.8% into the day he posted.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin tapped its previous cycle high twice.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don't go all-in on it. … 2026: Same playbook. Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
The most specific call in the set, and the clearest miss. Bitcoin was $60,855. The Wyckoff spring to ~$50K never happened — the lowest print since is $58,566 (−3.8%) on 1 July, which only clips the very top edge of his $48–59K accumulation band. And the bounce did not stall in his $65–70K box: the high since is $86,597 (+42.3%) and price is $83,145 (+36.6%). “Don't go all-in on it” was the wrong instruction — that bounce was the move.
𝕏 Post“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS: Goldman Sachs just separated winners from losers. Publicly. Sold: all Solana ETF holdings. … Kept: Bitcoin exposure. Kept: Ethereum infrastructure plays.”
The filing was real; the winners-and-losers reading was not. Solana was $85, fell to $62 (−27.0%) — but so did everything, with Bitcoin −24.4% and Ether −26.5% over the same stretch — and it has since recovered to $118 (+38.3%) after a high of $122 (+43.3%). Over the period he framed it in, the coin he called the loser beat the Bitcoin he said the bank kept (+7.4%) by about 31 points.
𝕏 Post“BAD NEWS FOR SOLANA AND XRP HOLDERS” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS. THEN DEATH CROSS. TWICE. 2018: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -67%. 2022: golden cross printed. Death cross followed. -69%. 2026: golden cross printed. Death cross forming. $60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
He put two analogues on the table (−67% in 2018, −69% in 2022) and made $60K the line that chose between them. The line broke: from $68,107 Bitcoin fell to $58,566 (−14.0%), about 2.4% under 언급한 레벨. Then nothing resembling the analogue followed — the high since is $86,597 (+27.1%) and price is $83,145 (+22.1%). The level was a fair pivot; the crash he attached to losing it never existed.
𝕏 Post“$60K is the decision.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.com“ETHEREUM HAS PRINTED THIS PATTERN TWICE IN FOUR MONTHS. 3 step rally. Stoch RSI peaks. Rollover. Dump. November: textbook. ETH lost 40%. March: same structure. Same Stoch RSI signal. $2K is the last support before the pattern completes.”
Graded on the branch he drew, this one worked. Ether was $2,203; $2,000 gave way nine days later, on 28 March, and the pattern completed into $1,566 (−28.9%) on 26 June — not far off the −40% November analogue he cited. It has since recovered to $2,666 (+21.0%), but the rollover he warned about was real, and it was called before the break.
𝕏 Post“$2K is the last support before the pattern completes.” — @MerlijnTrader↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated thesis against real price, not his own scoring. Several posts are two-branch conditionals (“hold it / lose it”) and X truncates long posts, so we quote and grade only the text the syndication endpoint returns verbatim. The two YouTube calls are graded on the title alone. Open marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
발행량이 많은 차트 계정에서는 이 항목이 가장 중요하다: Merlijn의 공개된 사업은 주목과 홍보이고, 분석을 내보내는 바로 그 계정에서 판매된다. 숨긴 것은 없다 — 전부 본인 링크 페이지에 있다 — 하지만 차트 옆에 함께 놓여야 한다.
그의 공개 링크 페이지는 “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages”를 판매하고 “for Business/Partnerships” DM을 권한다. 따라서 프로젝트는 시장 분석을 올리는 바로 그 계정에서 도달 범위를 살 수 있다. 그가 달리 밝히지 않는 한, 게시물에 이름이 나온 토큰이나 플랫폼은 상업적 관계일 수 있다고 가정하라.
같은 페이지가 “Book a Strategy Call” 제안과 함께 그를 컨설턴트 겸 비즈니스 코치로 내세운다 — 청중이 수수료 수입으로 전환되는 구조이며, 이는 신중함이 아니라 게시량과 확신에 찬 어조를 보상한다.
그의 X 계정에는 @cryptorover 소속 배지가 달려 있다. 한 운영 조직의 두 계정이 서로 동의하는 것은 두 개의 독립된 확증이 아니다 — 두 번이 아니라 한 번으로 세라.
그의 YouTube 채널은 프로젝트를 “turn $250K into $1M with Bitcoin”으로 명시하고 실시간 기록한다. 이는 충돌이 아니라 공개다 — 다만 구조적으로 강세인 Bitcoin 게시물 뒤에 구조적으로 강세인 Bitcoin 포지션이 있다는 뜻이다.
“Spring near $50K incoming. Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming. DCA zone: $48-59K.”
07 Jun 2026 · 양쪽 다 빗나간 로드맵“That is what a $ETH bottom looks like.”
27 Jul 2026 · 실제 ETH 저점 나흘 전“$60K is the decision. Hold it: this time is different.”
01 Apr 2026 · 폭락 없이 깨진 데드크로스 선인용문은 본인의 공개 출처에서 가져왔습니다. 밝힌 견해이지 권유가 아닙니다.
그는 X 팔로워 규모가 시사하는 것보다 훨씬 작은 채널에 거의 매일 Bitcoin 영상을 올린다. 채널 피드에서 가져온 최근 업로드:
Bitcoin’s Next Drop Is Coming… But Bears Are Making A Huge Mistake단기 하락, 장기 강세 — 이 도시에가 차트로 보여주는 바로 그 자세.10 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Is Repeating The 2022 Bottom… Here’s What Comes Next그의 2026년 콜 대부분을 움직이는 2022년 프랙탈.08 Sep 2026
Bitcoin’s New Parabolic Cycle Has OFFICIALLY Begun레벨 없이 제시된 강세 사이클 논지.07 Sep 2026
Bitcoin Just Flashed A MAJOR Buy Signal Before Jackson Hole8월 랠리를 앞둔 매크로 이벤트 프레이밍.28 Aug 2026X에서 @MerlijnTrader로 약 38만 명의 팔로워에게 글을 올리고, 더 작은 YouTube 채널(구독자 1.62만)을 운영하는 네덜란드 크립토 차트 분석가다. 성은 공개되어 있지 않다. 현재 시장을 과거의 어느 해 — 2017, 2018, 2022 — 와 비교하고 결과를 가르는 레벨 하나를 지목하는, 차트 한 장짜리 전부 대문자 게시물로 알려져 있다.
Mixed, and that is measurable. Of twelve dated 2026 calls charted here, three played out (including well-timed July bottom calls on Bitcoin and Ether), five are still open, and four went against him — most clearly a June road-map for a drop to $50,000 that instead saw Bitcoin rally 42%. He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser.
그는 홍보를 공개적으로 판매한다: 공개 링크 페이지에 “TOKEN2049 – Premium RWA Marketing Packages”가 올라와 있고, 비즈니스·파트너십 DM을 권하며, 유료 전략 콜을 제공한다. 그의 X 계정에는 @cryptorover 소속 배지도 있다. 달리 명시되지 않는 한, 언급된 프로젝트는 상업적 관계일 수 있다고 가정하라.
프랙탈 유비에 결정 레벨 하나. 과거 어느 해의 차트 구조를 현재에 겹치고 — 와이코프 축적, 골든/데드크로스, Stochastic RSI, 약 30개 사이클 고점 신호 대시보드 — “$60K is the decision”이나 “DCA zone $48–59K” 같은 숫자에 자신을 묶는다. 덕분에 확인하기 쉽지만, 유비가 실패하면 결론이 단지 이른 것이 아니라 뒤집힌다는 뜻이기도 하다.
Merlijn은 유비로 거래한다: 이 차트가 베끼고 있는 해를 찾아내고, 레벨 하나를 지켜낸다. 당신의 직감은 얼마나 가까운가 — Trader Passport로 실제로 재어 보라.
어느 쪽이든 정직한 검증은 실시간 검증뿐이다. 진짜 시장 데이터로 당신의 해석을 돌려보라 — 자본 위험 없이 — 진짜 상금이 걸린 무료 BuyCrypt 토너먼트에서.
