@MarkYusko
가격 목표가 아니라 적정가치로 말하는 대학기금 운용역. 유스코는 비트코인을 네트워크 가치 모델에 넣고 돌린 뒤 모델이 싸다고 하면 사들이며, 사이클에 날짜를 못박는다 — 그래서 그는 유난히 검증 가능하고, 그만큼 그의 실수도 검증 가능하다.
간단히 말해. Mark Yusko is the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and before that ran the endowments at Notre Dame and UNC Chapel Hill. In crypto he is a macro and valuation voice rather than a chartist: he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model (run by analyst Tim Peterson) that puts Bitcoin's fair value near $105,000, and he accumulates whenever price sits below it. He is also a four-year-cycle believer to the day, naming 5 October 2026 as the cycle's turn — a date that came and went with no new low. That framework called the depth of this year's low almost exactly — and got the timing of it badly wrong, twice.
유스코(1963년생, 시애틀에서 성장)는 노터데임 학사와 시카고 대학교 MBA를 취득했다. 1993년 10월 노터데임 투자실에 assistant investment officer로 들어가 1998년까지 senior investment director를 지냈고, 이후 1998년부터 2004년까지 노스캐롤라이나 대학교 채플힐의 기금 투자조직 UNC Management Company를 설립해 이끌었다. 두 곳 모두에 대체자산 비중이 큰 「기금 모델」을 들여왔다. 2004년 Morgan Creek Capital Management를, 2018년에는 Bitwise와 손잡고 기관용 Digital Asset Index Fund를 출시한 Morgan Creek Digital을 설립했다. 2026년의 한 인터뷰는 디지털 부문을 $3.2 billion of assets under advisement 규모로 설명했다.
이력이 한결같이 좋은 것은 아니며 이 도시에는 그것을 말한다: Salient Partners와의 제휴인 Endowment Fund는 약 $3.5 billion까지 커졌지만 성과 문제로 2013년 1월 그는 그 자리에서 물러나게 됐다. 크립토에 대한 확신은 오래됐다 — X에서의 이름 「Two Point One Quadrillion」은 존재하는 사토시의 수다 — 장기 숫자도 마찬가지다: 2026년 2월 15일 인터뷰에서 그는 비트코인이 $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029에 도달한다고 보는 데 「pretty comfortable」하다고 말했다. 같은 인터뷰에는 이 도시에가 차트로 옮길 수 없지만 숨기지도 않을 발언이 있다: 그는 이번 사이클의 바닥을 $58,000–$63,000로, 시점은 2026년 9월 30일–10월 1일쯤으로 잡았다. 레벨은 거의 완벽했다 — 비트코인의 지금까지 저점은 $58,566 — 그러나 그것은 석 달 이른 7월 1일에 찍혔고, 그 사이 몇 달 동안 그는 저점이 이미 지났다고 사람들에게 말했다.
Sources: morgancreekcap.com · Bitcoin Magazine · Yahoo Finance / Benzinga / Stocktwits · Coinage · NewsBTC · Cointelegraph
밸류에이션 우선의 매크로, 기금 운용의 시계로. 유스코는 추세선을 긋지 않는다. 그는 네트워크가 얼마인지 묻는다 — 팀 피터슨의 모델을 통해 비트코인의 사용자와 거래에 적용한 멧커프 법칙 — 그리고 가격이 그 숫자 아래일 때 날짜를 고르려 하지 않고 매주 산다. 그 주위에는 유동성, 법정화폐 가치 하락, 선물시장 포지셔닝, 그리고 직전 고점으로부터 364일 정밀도의 달력처럼 다루는 4년 반감기 사이클에 대한 톱다운 해석이 있다. 강점은 남들을 겁주는 하락 구간에서도 계속 산다는 것이다. 약점도 같은 성향이다: $70,000에서 「싸다」고 말하는 모델은 $60,000에서도 「싸다」고 말하며, 그의 사이클 시점 예측은 반복해서 일렀다.
Structurally very bullish on Bitcoin (fair value $105,000 against a price in the $80,000s, a $600–700k 2029 target). He spent early September calling the tape “bear market action” and pointing at a 5 October low, then turned: on 22 September he said the uptrend to $125,000 and $250,000 had begun, and on 2 October he posted “Looking Like Uptober”. Bearish on governance tokens, including ETH and SOL.
Dated statements Yusko made on podcasts and video interviews, written up verbatim by third-party press, charted against real price. He is a valuation and cycle voice, so the calls are directional and dated rather than tight levels — we judged each on what Bitcoin (or Solana) actually did next. The 2026 sample below is unflattering in the middle: he called the lows in on 11 March and again on 18 May, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July. What he did right is arguably more useful — he was buying weekly the whole way down, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls both worked. His 6 September warning — a possible drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low — did not. His out-of-window 15 February call had the bottom level almost exactly right and the date three months late; it is on the record above, not on this chart, because it predates the price window.
“Looking Like Uptober… 🧡🚀”
Three days before his own 5 October cycle-low date, he quote-posted Morgan Creek's Digital Currents episode — “‘Uptober’ or head fake?” — and answered it: Uptober. A day earlier he had hedged the same idea (“when everyone starts taking about something, it usually doesn’t happen”). Posted at 20:34 UTC, so the chart's 2 October point of $84,842 is that day's midnight price; the next point, $84,506, was barely different. Since then BTC has topped at $86,490 (+1.9%) on 5 October and sits at $84,009 (−1.0%). Five days in — open.
𝕏 Post“Looking Like Uptober…” — @MarkYusko on X↗ x.com“So, I think this will be not like straight up to 125 and straight up to 250, but I do think the durability of the trend will be better.”
Talking to Coinage's Zack Guzman (uploaded 22 September), he said Bitcoin had moved from distribution into accumulation and that the path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun — slowly, not vertically. It is a flip from his 6 September “not out of the woods” call, made before his own 5 October date. He made it on the best close of the whole rebound: $86,597, which BTC has not bettered since. Low since $83,479 (−3.6%), now $84,009 (−3.0%). A long-horizon thesis two weeks old — open.
SourceWhy the Bitcoin Rally to $250K Has Begun: Hedge Fund Manager Mark Yusko — Coinage via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
On Bitcoin Magazine TV, with BTC at $75,590, he put fair value at $105,000 on Metcalfe's law and said the gap made it a buy. It worked: BTC has not closed lower since, ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+11.1%). He called it on the exact low of the September dip.
SourceBitcoin Is On Sale, Says Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko — Bitcoin Magazine↗ bitcoinmagazine.com“We sold 90% of it.”
He revealed he had exited almost all of a Solana position he called the best investment of his life — roughly a 1,000x on Morgan Creek's stake in Multicoin's first fund — on governance grounds, not price. A month later the exit is offside: from $103 SOL dipped to $97 (−6.1%), then ran to $122 (+18.3%) and sits at $118 (+14.5%). Still far too early to score a multi-year exit made on governance grounds — open.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
With BTC at $79,822 he called the tape “super, super overbought”, said the squeeze was “still bear market action”, put the cycle low on 5 October (364 days after the peak) and warned price could fall to about $60,000 first. His date has now passed and the drop never came. The worst close was $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September; BTC then ran to $86,597 (+8.5%), closed $86,490 on 5 October itself and sits at $84,009 (+5.2%). By 2 October he was posting “Looking Like Uptober” himself — went against.
SourceMark Yusko Dumps 90% Of Solana, Warns Of More Pain For BTC — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
올해 그의 최고 발언이며, 가격대를 말하지 않고 해냈다. 비트코인의 $58,566 저점 열흘 뒤, BTC가 $64,111일 때 Cointelegraph와의 대화에서 그는 Morgan Creek이 2월부터 $105,000–$108,000의 적정가치에 대비해 매주 사들였고 10월까지 계속하겠다고 말했다. 이후 BTC는 $86,597 (+35.1%)까지 올랐고 $84,009 (+31.0%)에 있으며, 도중 최대 낙폭은 −2.9%에 불과했다.
SourceSpaceX Is ‘The Equivalent Of Dogecoin’ And Bitcoin Is The One That’s Actually Cheap — Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“The little flows are real. The big flows usually are not.”
Reporting on his 14 May interview with Scott Melker, the piece says he believed Bitcoin had already bottomed near the low-$60,000 range and dismissed a $630M ETF outflow day as hedge-fund basis trades rather than real selling. The flows read was defensible; the bottom call was not. From $77,429 BTC fell −24.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — through the floor he had just called — and only got back above his call price in September, peaking at $86,597 (+11.8%); now $84,009 (+8.5%).
SourceMark Yusko Says Look Past Bitcoin ETF Outflows: ‘Bear Markets Are Over’ — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“If CLARITY does pass, we probably extend the bear market longer.”
He called the CLARITY Act “a horrible bill” written by big banks and tied the cycle to it: passage extends the bear market, failure pulls the break into “crypto spring” forward from September–October. The bill failed its Senate cloture vote 49–50 on 15 September, so his stated trigger never fired — and price did neither thing cleanly. From $78,275 BTC ran to $82,018 (+4.8%) on 11 May, collapsed −25.2% to $58,566, and after the vote recovered to $86,597 (+10.6%); now $84,009 (+7.3%). Unresolved rather than right — open.
Source‘Horrible Bill’: Yusko Says CLARITY Act Could Extend Crypto Bear Market — Benzinga via Yahoo Finance↗ finance.yahoo.com“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
Said on 11 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. He told Coinage the selling was done and expected a range between the low $60,000s and low $80,000s through the summer. The range was roughly right; the floor was not. From the anchor Bitcoin lost −16.4% to $58,566 on 1 July — below the bottom of his band — before recovering to $84,009 (+20.0%). Anyone who read “the lows are in” as permission to stop being careful wore the whole drawdown.
SourceThe Worst of Bitcoin’s Selloff May Be Over, Says Mark Yusko — Coinage↗ coinage.mediaOutcomes are our read of his stated view against real price, not his own scoring. Every call links the page we fetched, and every quote was re-checked against that page on 20 September 2026; the 22 September and 2 October calls were checked on 7 October 2026. Those two are days old — near-term marks can flip.
유스코는 시그널이나 강의를 팔지 않는다. 그는 회사를 운영하며, 알아둘 이해관계는 단순하다: 펀드와 장기 목표를 등에 업고 TV에서 자기 포지션을 이야기하는 자산배분가라는 점이다.
2004년 설립한 그의 회사 — 기금 모델로 운용하는 일임 및 자문 맨데이트. 비트코인에 대한 공개적 강세론은 거기에 자금을 배분하는 사업과 떼어 놓을 수 없다.
2018년 설립된 디지털 자산 부문으로, Bitwise와 기관용 인덱스 펀드를 내놓았다; 2026년의 한 인터뷰는 규모를 $3.2 billion of assets under advisement로 밝혔다.
그는 순자산의 약 절반이 비트코인과 비트코인 관련 자산에 있다고 말한다 — 다른 사람에게 권하는 「five, eight, or ten percent」와 대비된다. 보기 드물게 솔직한 공개이자, 강세 논지의 강도를 할인해 들을 이유다.
네트워크 수수료에 대한 권리가 없는 거버넌스 토큰을 — 솔라나와 함께 Ethereum과 Uniswap을 지목하며 — 「kind of scammy」라 부른다. 그의 비트코인 대 알트코인 구도는 그의 익스포저가 어디에 있는지 알고 읽어야 한다.
“Okay, so it’s on sale — you should accumulate things that are on sale.”
16 Sep 2026 · 한 줄로 요약된 밸류에이션 원칙“So we’ve been buying a little bit every week since February, and we’ll continue to do that... probably through October or so.”
11 Jul 2026 · 그가 실제로 실행하는 방식“I think the worst of the selling has occurred… We probably have seen the lows.”
11 Mar 2026 · 대가를 치른 발언, 넉 달 일렀다“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
6 Sep 2026 · 자신의 10월 5일을 앞두고 여전히 신중인용문은 본인의 공개 출처에서 가져왔습니다. 밝힌 견해이지 권유가 아닙니다.
유스코는 자기 채널도, 뉴스레터도, 유료 그룹도 운영하지 않는다. 그는 남의 프로그램에 나가며, 위의 모든 발언이 거기서 나왔다. 아래는 이 도시에 뒤에 있는 원본 영상으로, 제목과 업로드 날짜를 확인했다:
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Path to $250K Already Started: Mark YuskoCoinage — the “durability of the trend” interview behind the 22 September call.22 Sep 2026
Mark Yusko: Bitcoin's Rise is Programmed - The Path from Speculation to Global MoneyBitcoin Magazine TV — 위에 차트로 옮긴 「it's on sale」 인터뷰.16 Sep 2026
Why Mark Yusko Is Buying Bitcoin Before OctoberCointelegraph — 7월 11일 발언의 배경이 된 주간 매집 인터뷰.10 Jul 2026
Donald Trump Is About To Crash Bitcoin Again | Mark Yusko's 2026 PredictionsAltcoin Daily — $58,000–$63,000 바닥과 2029년 $600–700k 목표, 차트 구간 바로 바깥.8 Feb 2026
Bitcoin ETF Manipulation, AI Bubble & 2026 Predictions | Mark YuskoThe Bureau Podcast — 그가 한 해 내내 반복하는 선물 억제와 AI 버블 프레임.7 Jan 2026마크 W. 유스코(1963년생)는 2004년 자신이 세운 Morgan Creek Capital Management의 창업자이자 CEO 겸 최고투자책임자다. 그 전에는 UNC Management Company 대표(1998–2004)로서 노스캐롤라이나 대학교 채플힐의 기금을 운용했고, 노터데임 투자실에서 senior investment director(1993–1998)를 지냈다. 2018년 Morgan Creek Digital을 설립했으며 가장 오래 활동해 온 기관계 비트코인 강세론자 중 한 명이다.
Two numbers, both dated and sourced on this page. Near term he anchors on a Metcalfe's-law network-value model run by analyst Tim Peterson that put Bitcoin's fair value around $105,000 as of 16 September 2026 — against a market price near $75,000. On 22 September he told Coinage the slow path to $125,000 and then $250,000 had begun. Long term, in a 15 February 2026 interview, he said Bitcoin reaches $600,000–$700,000 by September 2029.
Mixed, and the chart above shows both sides. He called the bottom in on 11 March and again on 18 May 2026, and Bitcoin then fell to $58,566 on 1 July — his two red marks. But he was buying weekly through the whole decline, and his 11 July and 16 September accumulation calls are up by roughly a third and by more than a tenth. His 6 September call for a drop toward $60,000 before a 5 October low also missed — the date passed with Bitcoin in the $80,000s. His February call had the bottom level ($58,000–$63,000) nearly exact while missing the date by three months.
밸류에이션 우선이며 느리다. 멧커프 법칙으로 비트코인 네트워크의 가치를 추정하고, 저점을 맞히려 하기보다 가격이 그 적정가치 아래일 때마다 매주 사들이며, 그 위에 정확히 날짜를 매기는 4년 반감기 사이클을 덧씌운다 — 직전 고점으로부터 364일, 그래서 이번 사이클의 전환점은 2026년 10월 5일이 된다. 레버리지와 단기 가격대는 전혀 쓰지 않고, 네트워크 수수료에 대한 권리가 없는 거버넌스 토큰은 경시한다.
유스코는 차트가 아니라 숫자를 산다: 적정가치가 먼저, 매주 매수, 정확한 저점을 잡으려는 시도는 없다. 당신의 직감은 얼마나 가까운가 — Trader Passport로 실제로 재보라.
이제 당신의 접근법을 실전에 써보자. 실제 시장 데이터 위에서, 자본 위험 없이, 진짜 상품이 걸린 무료 BuyCrypt 토너먼트로 당신의 엣지를 검증해 보라.
