@ki_young_ju
The on-chain analyst who runs the data terminal half the market quotes — and who changes his mind in public, loudly, with a timestamp. Inside thirteen weeks in 2026 he called an 18-month bear market, told holders relief was coming, then declared the bear cycle over. The relief call paid, the bear call has since gone against him, and the all-clear is still running. He is worth tracking anyway, because he leaves the whole record standing — including the parts that make him look bad.
간단히 말해. 주기영은 2019년 크립토퀀트(CryptoQuant)를 공동 창업해 크립토 업계에서 가장 많이 인용되는 온체인 데이터 제공사 중 하나로 키웠다. 그의 공개 분석은 하나의 개념 위에 서 있다. Realized Cap — 실제로 얼마나 많은 진짜 돈이 비트코인에 들어왔는가 — 를 시가총액과 견주어 강세장과 약세장을 가른다. 이 렌즈 덕분에 그는 테라-루나와 FTX를 일찍 짚어냈다. 같은 렌즈가 그를 반복해서, 그리고 공개적으로 자기 말을 뒤집게 만들기도 했다. 가장 유명한 사례는 2025년으로, 강세 사이클의 종료를 선언했다가 7주 뒤 사과했고, 비트코인이 신고가로 달려가는 것을 지켜봐야 했다. 같은 패턴이 2026년에도 반복된다. 5월 29일에는 2027년까지 이어지는 약세장, 8월 25일에는 「The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.」. 그는 가격 레벨을 부르지 않는다 — 시장 국면을 부르고, 그 국면은 뒤집힌다.
1992년생으로 포항공과대학교에서 공부한 그는 소프트웨어 엔지니어로 일하다가 2018년 한국의 블록체인 리서치 그룹 Planet B를 만들었고, 2019년 4월 동문들과 함께 크립토퀀트를 공동 창업했다. 회사는 펀드와 트레이더에게 온체인 및 거래소 자금 흐름 데이터를 판매하며 — 한국의 조선일보는 이를 「크립토의 블룸버그」라 불렀다 — 2022년 7월에는 CME 그룹의 데이터 공급사가 되었다. 크립토퀀트의 평판은 두 번의 이른 경고 위에 세워졌다. 2022년 5월 테라-루나 붕괴 직전의 비정상적 비트코인 흐름, 그리고 이후 FTX를 둘러싼 신호들이다.
그의 공개 방법론은 의도적으로 좁다. Realized Cap은 지갑으로 들어오는 코인을 매수로, 나가는 코인을 매도로 간주해 비트코인에 실제 투입된 자본을 추정한다. 이를 시가총액과 비교하면 새 자금이 가격을 움직이고 있는지 알 수 있다. 큰 유입이 가격을 들어 올리지 못하면 그는 약세장이라 부른다. 작은 유입이 가격을 크게 들어 올리면 강세장이라 부른다. 깔끔한 틀이고, 그만큼 확신에 찬 국면 판단을 낳는다.
그리고 그 틀은 번복도 낳는데, 주기영은 이를 숨기지 않는다. 2025년 3월 17일 그는 「#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action」을 올렸고, 4월 5일 이를 Realized Cap에 관한 긴 스레드로 확장했으며, 2025년 5월 9일에는 이렇게 썼다. 「Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… I apologize for the incorrect prediction.」 비트코인은 그해 10월 사상 최고가를 새로 썼고 — 언론은 그 고점을 약 12만 6천 달러로 전한다. 이 오판은 아래 차트의 가격 구간 밖에 있지만 기록에는 남아야 한다. 그리고 2026년의 발언들은 같은 반사 신경을 보여준다. 2026년 2월 1일에는 「this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation」이라 썼고, 5월 29일에는 약세장을 2027년 초까지 늘렸으며, 8월 21~25일에는 이미 바닥과 약세 사이클의 종료를 불렀다. 그를 붙잡아 책임을 물을 수 있는 예측이 아니라, 계측이 잘 된 채 빠르게 갱신되는 의견으로 읽어야 한다.
Sources: x.com/ki_young_ju · cryptoquant.com · Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com News coverage
가격 레벨이 아니라 온체인 국면. 주기영은 목표가를 거의 올리지 않는다. 그가 올리는 것은 시장의 상태다 — 강세, 약세, 횡보, 바닥 형성 — 그리고 그것은 시가총액 대비 Realized Cap, 단기 보유자의 손익, Bull/Bear Market Cycle 지표(MVRV·NUPL·SOPR를 각각의 365일 이동평균과 대비해 구성), 거래소와 ETF 자금 흐름 데이터에서 도출된다. 강점은 이런 주장이 반증 가능하고, 날짜가 붙어 있으며, 느낌이 아니라 실제 데이터에 뿌리를 둔다는 점이다. 약점은 타이밍이다. 국면 신호는 구조적으로 옳으면서도 6주 이르거나 늦을 수 있고, 그의 기록은 데이터가 돌아서는 순간 그가 열두 주 안에 국면 판단을 뒤집는다는 것을 보여준다.
Bullish — he called the bottom on 21 August and declared the bear cycle over on 25 August, and has pressed further since: on 21 September he pointed to BTC reclaiming its 365-day average at $83K as the end-of-bear line, the next day posted “Bitcoin bull run just started, but no one cares.”, and on 23 September published the analysts' STRONG BUY consensus for Ethereum. He has also tempered the upside — a 3–5x cycle, not another 10x parabola. It is all a reversal of the bear-into-2027 stance he held in May, so treat the bias as live and revisable rather than settled.
Twelve dated, in-window statements — eleven of them his own X posts, one a quote confirmed on Bitcoin.com News — charted against real price. He is a regime caller, so we judge each one on what price actually did next rather than on a level being hit. The sample is deliberately unflattering in places: it opens with an on-chain all-clear posted 37% above the summer low. For the record beyond this chart window, his headline 2025 call — “#Bitcoin bull cycle is over”, March 2025 — was wrong enough that he publicly apologised for it seven weeks later.
“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.”
An on-chain all-clear — not a target, but a published read that forced selling had stopped. It went out at $80,482, and what came next was the opposite of relief: BTC fell −27.2% to $58,566 by 1 July. Until 22 September no close since had been even 1% above it; that day BTC reached $86,597 (+7.6%), and it is +5.4% today. Four months mostly underwater after an all-clear is still a miss. The indicator was doing what it says on the tin; as a signal of what came next it failed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
The mechanism — profit-taking cascades drag investor PnL for ~18 months — was right for five weeks: BTC fell −20.5% from $73,652 to the $58,566 low. Then it wasn't. He abandoned the thesis himself on 25 August, roughly five months before his own deadline, and on 21 September described BTC's reclaim of its 365-day average as the line everyone watches for the end of the bear. BTC has since closed as high as $86,597 (+17.6%) and is +15.1% today. Early 2027 has not arrived, but the caller has withdrawn the call and price has gone the other way, so we now log it against — changed from open on 4 October.
𝕏 Post“…the bear market could last until early 2027.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways.”
In a long thread telling @saylor to pause buying, he argued Strategy's bid was “more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst” and that weak hands had not been flushed. From $62,662 the flush never came: the deepest close after it was −6.5%, and BTC then ran +38.2% to $86,597. It is +35.3% today. The recovery he said needed a reset happened without one.
𝕏 Post“The market may need a proper reset…” — @ki_young_ju on Strategy's BTC buying↗ x.com“If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.”
Timing this well is rare: $58,566 is the lowest daily close in the entire window, and BTC has not closed below it since — +44.8% to today, +47.9% at the high. But read the call, not the chart. It is conditional on Bitcoin absorbing $1T+ in realized cap, we have seen no evidence that it has, and $84,793 is not a parabola. On 22 September he narrowed it himself, saying he expects this cycle to deliver “3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally”. Structurally “still early, not invalidated” — so, open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
A soft call with a hard shape: relief is coming, but not yet. Both halves landed. From $63,193 the deepest close after was only −1.4%, and the relief arrived well inside “the next few months” — BTC has since run +37.0% to $86,597 and is +34.2% today. Note he framed it as a bear-market bounce, not a trend change; the trend change is what he claimed six weeks later.
SourceCryptoquant CEO Tells Bitcoin Holders to “Hang in There” — Bitcoin.com News↗ news.bitcoin.com“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.”
Called into strength at $73,021 — the risky way to call a bottom — and it has held: not one daily close below that price since, +18.6% at the high and +16.1% today. He hedged with “might see a dip”; the deepest close since was $75,590, still above his call. The obvious caveat is that this is the same analyst who, twelve weeks earlier, put the bear market's end in 2027.
𝕏 Post“Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.”
Four words, posted at $78,974 when CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time since early October. Price dipped −4.3% to $75,590 by 16 September, then broke out: +9.7% at the $86,597 high on 22 September, +7.4% today. On 21 September he posted that BTC had reclaimed its 365-day average at $83K — the line he called the one everyone watches for the end of the bear. Encouraging, but a bear cycle is not proven over in six weeks, and BTC is still well below its 2025 peak — this is open.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.”
Two days after declaring the bear cycle over, he put a shape on what comes next: the top of this cycle gets made by non-US institutional flows, with Korea — no spot ETF, no foreign products for retail, companies locked out of exchanges — as the example of the demand still sitting on the sidelines. It went out at $79,018. Since then the low is $75,590 (−4.3%), the high $86,597 (+9.6%), and BTC is +7.3% today. Nothing in five weeks of price tests a claim about where a cycle peak originates, so it is logged open — but note the assumption underneath it: that this bull cycle has a peak still ahead of it.
𝕏 Post“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY”
Four words and a chart. Read it precisely: he is publishing the analyst-sentiment gauge, not his own target — but it is a bullish signal posted under his name. From $79,093 it cost money first, −4.4% to $75,590 on 16 September, then paid: +9.5% to the $86,597 high on 22 September and +7.2% today. A buy signal that is up within four weeks has done its job, so we now log it played out — changed from open on 4 October. Whether the regime behind it holds is what his 25 August call is for.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“BTC reclaimed the 365MA at $83K and is sitting above $84K. That's the line everyone's been watching for the end of the bear. If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.”
A level and a condition: the 365-day moving average at $83K, and if it holds, FOMO follows. Posted at 09:36 UTC, when by his own account BTC was already above $84K; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $81,169, so read the +4.5% to today with that head start in mind. The line has held: the lowest daily close since is $83,479. The FOMO is less clear — BTC closed at $86,597 (+6.7%) the next day and has drifted sideways below it since, at $84,793 today. Held, not yet chased: open.
𝕏 Post“If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.”
His most specific cycle call yet, in a long post arguing that institutional ownership now damps both extremes: a 3–5x bull cycle instead of a 10x+ parabola, and a milder bear market after it. The post gives no base price and no date for the 3–5x, so there is no level to grade yet. It went out on the day of the window's highest close, $86,597; BTC has since closed as low as $83,479 (−3.6%) and is −2.1% today. A claim about the shape of a multi-year cycle cannot be settled in twelve days — open. It also narrows his 1 July talk of “another parabolic bull run”.
𝕏 Post“3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY”
The same CryptoQuant analyst-consensus gauge as his 8 September Bitcoin post, this time for Ethereum — a published sentiment reading, not his own target, but posted under his name. It went out at 08:44 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $2,753, which has turned out to be ETH's highest close since. The low is $2,668 (−3.1%) and ETH is −2.2% today. Eleven days in, it has not paid — open.
𝕏 Post“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the linked X post or article. Fresh calls can flip as the cycle resolves — the newest call here, 23 September, has eleven days of data behind it and is logged open for exactly that reason.
그의 유인 구조는 이례적으로 읽기 쉽다. 그는 시그널이 아니라 데이터를 판다. 토큰 홍보 문제는 사라지지만 다른 문제가 생긴다 — 크립토퀀트의 제품이 곧 온체인 애널리틱스이고, 그의 공개 게시물은 그 제품의 진열창이다.
사업의 본체는 유료 데이터 터미널이다 — 온체인 및 거래소 자금 흐름 분석을 펀드, 트레이딩 데스크, 개인 투자자에게 등급별 요금제로 판매한다. X에서의 무료 분석은 그 제품의 마케팅 퍼널이다. 유료 리딩방보다는 깨끗한 정렬이지만, 여전히 이해관계는 존재한다.
크립토퀀트는 온체인 데이터를 상업적으로 공급하며, 2022년 7월 체결한 CME 그룹 공급 계약도 여기 포함된다. 기관 유통은 「인용되는 것」을 보상하고, 그것은 강하고 인용하기 좋은 주장을 부추긴다.
그의 상방은 공개하는 트레이딩 북이 아니라 자신이 공동 창업한 회사에 있다. 시그널 서비스를 운영하지 않고 토큰을 홍보하지도 않는다 — 그래서 국면 판단을 뒤집을 때, 그 뒤집기에 걸린 구독 갱신 같은 것은 없다.
“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
29 May 2026 · 훗날 스스로 버린 약세 시계“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
10 Jul 2026 · 적중한 하나, 그것도 예상보다 이르게“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.”
09 May 2025 · 공개 정정 — 이 구간 밖이지만 기록에는 남는다인용문은 그의 공개 출처에서 가져온 것입니다. 표명된 견해이며 투자 권유가 아닙니다.
링크할 영상 라이브러리가 없다. 주기영은 팟캐스트를 하지 않고 자기 채널도 운영하지 않는다 — 그의 공개 산출물은 X 게시물과 크립토퀀트의 리서치 노트이며, 나머지는 모두 제3자 인터뷰다. 위의 모든 발언이 클립이 아니라 타임스탬프와 링크가 붙은 인용인 이유가 바로 이것이다.
2019년 설립된 한국의 온체인 데이터 기업 크립토퀀트의 공동 창업자이자 CEO다. 크립토퀀트는 블록체인 및 거래소 자금 흐름 분석을 펀드와 트레이더에게 판매한다. 그는 크립토 업계에서 가장 많이 인용되는 온체인 분석가 중 한 명이며, X에서 약 43만 4천 명의 팔로워에게 비트코인 시장 판단을 올린다.
공개적으로 확인된 바 없다. 그의 자산은 재무 정보를 공개하지 않는 비상장사 크립토퀀트의 지분에 묶여 있다. 인용되는 구체적 금액은 무시하는 편이 낫다 — 확인된 수치는 없다.
Yes, and he says so himself. In March 2025 he declared the bull cycle over; on 9 May 2025 he posted “Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong” and apologised. Bitcoin then made a new all-time high. In 2026 he called a bear market lasting into early 2027 on 29 May, then declared the bear cycle over on 25 August. Of the twelve dated 2026 calls charted above, three played out, six are still open and three went against him.
Realized Cap — 비트코인에 실제로 들어온 자본 규모의 온체인 추정치 — 를 시가총액과 비교하고, 여기에 단기 보유자 손익, 거래소·ETF 자금 흐름, 크립토퀀트의 Bull/Bear Market Cycle 지표를 더한다. 그는 가격 레벨이나 목표가가 아니라 시장 국면(강세, 약세, 바닥 형성)을 부른다.
주기영은 데이터가 바뀌면 판단을 바꾸고, 그 평판 비용을 공개적으로 감수한다. 당신의 감각은 여기에 얼마나 가까운가 — Trader Passport로 실제로 재보자.
어느 쪽이든 이를 가릴 수 있는 유일한 시험은 당신 자신의 기록이다. 실제 시장 데이터로 — 자본 손실 위험 없이 — 진짜 상금이 걸린 BuyCrypt 무료 토너먼트에서 거래해 보라.
