@CryptoCapo_
크립토에서 가장 논쟁적인 익명 차티스트. il Capo라는 이름은 2021–22년 붕괴를 짚어내며 커졌고, 이후 몇 년간 시장이 가장 좋아하는 역발상 지표 노릇을 했다. 아래의 2026년 기록은 양쪽 진영 모두에게 불편하다: 거의 완벽하게 짚어낸 지지 구간, 그리고 그 위에서 다섯 달을 너무 일찍 버틴 시간.
간단히 말해. il Capo of Crypto는 2017년부터 시장에 있는 익명 분석가로, X에서 약 80만 팔로워, 무료 텔레그램 채널에서 약 11만 6,800명에게 글을 올린다. 여기서는 상위 시간대의 지지·저항 구간, 유동성의 축적, 군중 심리를 읽고 — 레벨을 날짜와 함께 소리 내어 말한다. 이런 페이지가 애초에 가능한 이유가 바로 그것이다. 차트 이전에 두 가지를 짚어야 한다: 2026년은 일찍 맞고 그다음 다섯 달 동안 틀린 해였고, 그리고 — 본인 표현 그대로 — “As you know, I don't trade Bitcoin”. 본인 포트폴리오는 프라이버시 코인과 소형주다. 비트코인은 방향을 공표하는 기준일 뿐, 사들이는 대상이 아니다.
il Capo of Crypto는 필명이다. 검증된 실명, 얼굴, 소재지가 공개된 적이 한 번도 없고, 대명사를 밝힌 적도 없기 때문에 이 페이지는 그것을 추측하지 않는다 — 언론의 관행인 “그(남성)”는 사실이 아니라 가정이다. 기록으로 남아 있는 것은 매매 이력이다: Phemex의 프로필은 이 인물이 “been active in the crypto community since 2017”라고 적고 있으며, 2022년 3월 비트코인이 $40,000 부근일 때 $23,000 아래로 떨어질 것이라고 했고 — 그해 6월 BTC는 $18,000 아래에서 거래됐다. 그 콜과 2022년 8월의 비슷한 콜이 명성을 만들었다.
그다음 같은 확신이 반대 방향으로 달렸다. 2022년 바닥이 지난 뒤로도 한참 동안 약세 목표를 붙들었고, NewsBTC의 2024년 10월 기사는 이를 그대로 적었다: “This goes as far back as his prediction of Bitcoin falling to $12,000 last year, but the crypto eventually broke past resistance levels”, 그리고 “a running joke among some investors that whenever Capo makes a prediction, the market tends to do the opposite”라는 농담이 돈다고 덧붙였다. 그것이 il Capo가 2026년으로 들고 온 평판이며, 날짜가 붙고 차트로 그려진 기록이 여기서 어떤 요약보다 — 이 요약을 포함해 — 더 값진 이유다.
The 2026 posture inverts the caricature: they have been publicly, stubbornly bullish since early February, through a 20% drawdown, while the crowd turned bearish. They also documented the cost of it themselves. On 9 July, with Bitcoin at $62,247, they wrote to the Telegram channel: “I've been bullish since January/February, when price reached the expected main support zone of $60k-70k… Since then, 5 months have passed by, which is a lot of time. And price went up to 82k, then back down to 58k, and now trading at around 63k.” The twelve cards below are that stretch and what followed it, charted.
Sources: x.com/CryptoCapo_ · t.me/CryptoCapoTG · Phemex profile · NewsBTC
상위 시간대 구간, 유동성, 심리 — 타이밍보다 확신. il Capo는 넓은 지지·저항 밴드(“$65k-75k range”, “main support zone of $60k-70k”), 오더블록과 과거 사상 최고가의 겹침, 유동성이 어디에 쌓여 있는지, 군중이 얼마나 비관적으로 돌아섰는지에서 출발한다. 매매 방식은 구간을 사고 기다린 뒤, 아래에 스톱을 두는 대신 위쪽에 확인 레벨을 지목하는 것이다(“First bullish confirmation above 66k, second above 82k”). 이것이 강점이자 결함이다: 구간이 맞으면 진입은 거의 완벽하고, 타이밍이 틀리면 포지션에서 빼내 줄 장치가 없다. 또한 레버리지가 아니라 현물을 거래한다고 분명히 말하며 — “Hence, I won't promote leverage” — 스스로 예고한 하락 구간에서도 “not selling”이라고 밝힌다.
Bullish mid-term — “Mid-term bullish (next months) yes” — and heavily positioned in privacy coins, but short-term bearish since late August: as of 24 September 2026 calling the local highs in with a $65k–70k target below $80k, and on 27 September “starting to hedge”.
Twelve dated public statements from il Capo, 5 February – 24 September 2026, charted against real Bitcoin price. The CoinGecko window runs 210 days and now begins 4 March, so the two oldest cards — the 5 and 18 February posts — sit outside it and are anchored at the window's first close; their cards say so. Five are their own X posts, captured with x_capture.py so the text and date are the post's own; seven are posts from t.me/CryptoCapoTG, the channel their own description calls “Official and free Telegram channel of @CryptoCapo_ from Twitter.” Read the whole set together, not the best card: this is a run of one thesis, repeated for seven months, that was right about the level and badly wrong about the clock — followed, from late August, by a turn to short-term caution that the market has so far run over. The famous 2021–22 top call and the $12,000 target sit years outside any chartable window and are described above instead.
“There's no better time for a strong bounce (short squeeze)”
The post the whole year hangs on, and it has now aged off the left edge of its own chart. They marked the “main support zone” — a confluence of an order block, the November and April 2021 all-time highs and the 2024 ATH — and read maximum negative sentiment as the setup for an immediate squeeze. The CoinGecko window is 210 days and now begins 4 Mar 2026, so 5 February can no longer be priced from its own date; the chart anchors at the window's first close, $68,287, and the weeks right after the post sit off the edge. What does not depend on that anchor is the clock. No strong bounce came: Bitcoin ground lower for nearly five months to $58,566 on 1 July — 14.2% below even the later anchor — and only then turned. The zone did eventually hold, and BTC is $83,145 today, +21.8% above the anchor, but “there's no better time” was five months early. It stays against.
𝕏 Post“Main support zone reached… There's no better time for a strong bounce” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“Not ruling out the possibility of a quick last dump to $65k, but we should see bullish acceleration soon, with targets over $85k and altcoins outperforming.”
Two halves, and both have now paid — the second one very late. The post and the “quick last dump” that followed it in late February now sit before the CoinGecko window, which begins 4 Mar 2026, so the chart anchors at the window's first close, $68,287. The target took seven months. Bitcoin first fell to $58,566 on 1 July — 14.2% below the anchor and well under the $65k they had allowed for — before closing at $86,597 on 22 September, +26.8% above the anchor and over the $85k they named. The card sat open for months because that number was unprinted; it is printed now, so it moves to played out. What it does not earn is “soon”: the acceleration came after a second leg down. BTC is $83,145 today, +21.8% above the anchor. The altcoin half of the post is not charted here.
Source“targets over $85k and altcoins outperforming” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“For now, the most likely scenario remains an imminent short squeeze to $80k-90k levels (potentially higher).”
With BTC at $71,304, stuck in the $65k–75k range they had been publishing for weeks, they called an imminent squeeze into $80k–90k. It arrived twice. First to $82,018 on 11 May, the bottom of the band — after a 7.5% dip to $65,947 on 30 March — and then, after the whole move was given back into the $58,566 low on 1 July (−17.9% from the post), to $86,597 on 22 September, +21.4% and past the middle of the range. Honest caveat: “imminent” fits the first leg, not the second. BTC is $83,145 today, +16.6% above the post.
Source“an imminent short squeeze to $80k-90k levels” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“Just an S/R flip after bullish confirmation. Higher.”
Their most confident post of the spring, and the whole forecast is one word. BTC was $75,716; it went higher for three weeks, to $82,018 on 11 May — and then gave all of it back and more, falling 22.7% to $58,566 by 1 July. The card stayed open while price was only back around the post. That changed in September: Bitcoin closed at $86,597 on 22 September, +14.4% and above the May high, and is $83,145 now, +9.8%. “Higher” was right, so it moves from open to played out — but anyone who sized up on that one word sat through a 23% drawdown to get here.
𝕏 Post“Just an S/R flip after bullish confirmation. Higher.” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“I think we see a last leg down to 78k-79k and then bullish continuation.”
The worst call in the window. Three days before the May high, with BTC at $80,025, they sized the coming correction at roughly 1–2% — a “last leg down” to $78k–79k. Bitcoin lost 26.8% instead, to $58,566 on 1 July. The “bullish continuation” did eventually come: BTC closed at $86,597 on 22 September, +8.2% above the post, and is $83,145 today, +3.9%. That does not rescue it — the forecast was the size of the dip, and it was wrong by more than ten times. Four days earlier they had told the same channel that “Accuracy over the last months has been out of this world.”
Source“a last leg down to 78k-79k and then bullish continuation” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“The analysis is not playing out yet, thus I'm wrong so far.”
Less a forecast than an admission, and it belongs on the record. Four months into the thesis, with BTC back at $61,480, well under the support zone they had marked in February, they wrote the miss down publicly instead of quietly deleting it, and kept the position. It turned out to be near the end of the fall: the deepest dip after this post was −4.7% to $58,566 on 1 July, and Bitcoin is $83,145 today, +35.2% higher.
𝕏 Post“The analysis is not playing out yet, thus I'm wrong so far” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“an important local bottom could be forming here, with a triple tap at 60k.”
The best-timed call here. At $59,727 they read a third test of $60k as a bottom and named the levels that would prove it — “First bullish confirmation above 66k, second above 82k.” The low came five days later at $58,566, only 1.9% below them. Both confirmations have now cleared — the second on 22 September, when Bitcoin closed at $86,597 (+45.0%). BTC is $83,145 today, +39.2% above the post.
𝕏 Post“an important local bottom could be forming here, with a triple tap at 60k” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“After this strong bullish move, I can see a short-term local top forming around 80k.”
After a 34.8% run off the 1 July low, with BTC at $78,974, they turned short-term cautious and named where they would buy it back: “Eyes on 74k-75k and 69k-70k as potential local bottoms.” The first part roughly worked: Bitcoin peaked at $81,265 on 4 September and fell to $75,590 on 16 September, 4.3% below the post — close to, but not into, the 74k–75k zone. Then it ran straight through that top, to $86,597 on 22 September (+9.7%), and is $83,145 today, +5.3% above where they posted. Neither buy-back level has been tested, so it stays open, and the “local top” is now a lower high. Note what it is not: “PS: I'm not selling, just ready to buy more if that happens.”
𝕏 Post“I can see a short-term local top forming around 80k” — @CryptoCapo_↗ x.com“Most coins remain sideways/correcting. Still expecting a final 10%-20% shakeout before bullish continuation.”
The August caution, now with a number on it. With BTC at $78,553 they sized the pullback they were waiting for — a final 10–20% shakeout, then bullish continuation — and reposted the same two lines verbatim to the channel on 7 September. It has not arrived. The deepest close since the post is $75,590 on 16 September, only 3.8% below it; then Bitcoin went the other way, to $86,597 on 22 September (+10.2%), and is $83,145 today, +5.8% above the post. It is open and pointing against them. One caveat this card cannot remove — the post says “most coins”, not Bitcoin; it is charted against BTC because that is the reference they publish direction on.
Source“Still expecting a final 10%-20% shakeout before bullish continuation” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“After riding this wave from the low $60ks, I remain cautious short-term. This looks very overextended for now, and seems like the market is going to flush some leverage and reset indicators before continuing higher.”
The first time in this window they claim the move: “riding this wave from the low $60ks” is the 26 June call above, which landed within 1.9% of the $58,566 low. From $78,451 they stayed short-term cautious and asked for a leverage flush before continuation. What followed fits the words loosely: a 3.6% dip to $75,590 on 16 September, then $86,597 on 22 September (+10.4%); BTC is $83,145 today, +6.0% above the post. A 3.6% flush is small for a market they called “very overextended”, and the post names no level either way, so it stays open rather than claimed. Same caveat as the card above — the subject is “the market”, charted against BTC.
Source“I remain cautious short-term… this looks very overextended for now” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“Expected retracements from here: • $BTC: 10% - 15% ($65k - $70k) • $ETH: 15% - 20% ($2k - $2.1k)”
The shakeout, sized asset by asset. Two days after the card above, with BTC at $76,555, they published a table of expected retracements — Bitcoin 10–15% to $65k–70k, Ether 15–20% to $2k–2.1k, altcoins and memecoins deeper — and reposted it word for word on 18 September. Five days after the post Bitcoin had dipped 1.3% to $75,590, the closest it has come. Then it rallied the other way, to $86,597 on 22 September (+13.1%), and is $83,145 today, +8.6% above the post — a 15.8% fall away from even the top of their target zone. Ether did the same: $2,438 to a $2,775 high (+13.9%), $2,666 today (+9.4%). No clock was attached, so it stays open — but it is going against them.
Source“Expected retracements from here… $BTC: 10% - 15% ($65k - $70k)” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.me“High probability local highs are in. We could now see an LTF bounce towards $85k, but then down again. Bull trap confirmation (trend change) once $BTC goes below $80k. The expected target would be $65k-70k.”
Their newest call, and the most complete bearish one on this page: a top, a bounce level, a trigger and a target. Two days after the $86,597 close on 22 September, with BTC at $84,382, they called the local highs in, allowed a bounce toward $85k, and set below $80k as the confirmation for a drop to $65k–70k. On 27 September they added: “As mentioned on X, I'm starting to hedge.” Five days settles nothing. The highest close since is $84,449 (+0.1%), and Bitcoin is $83,145 today, 1.5% below the post — still above the $80k trigger. Note the shift: this is the first card here where they say they are acting on a bearish view rather than waiting to buy lower.
Source“High probability local highs are in” — CryptoCapoTG, the official free Telegram channel↗ t.meOutcomes are our read of their stated direction against real CoinGecko price, not their own scoring. Two things bound what these cards can prove. First, il Capo has said they do not trade Bitcoin — “it's one of the main references for market direction” — so a red card marks a published view that aged badly, not a losing position; their actual holdings are privacy coins and low caps we have no price series for. Second, they publish confirmation levels rather than stops, so there is no exit to score against. The newest card is five days old and settles nothing. One more limit: the “$1,000 in” line on each card is buy-and-hold from the post date, including on the cautious and bearish cards from 25 August onward — for those, a positive figure means the call is going against them.
여기에 유료 그룹은 없다 — 텔레그램 채널은 무료이며 운영하는 유일한 채널이라고 밝히고 있다. 돈은 거래소 제휴 계약, 도구 추천 링크, 그리고 무엇보다 여섯 자릿수 청중 앞에서 공개적으로 이름을 부르는 비유동성 코인 포트폴리오에 있다.
2026년 7월 16일 발표되어 8월에도 계속 홍보 중인 제휴 계약: $10,000 USDT 경품, 거래 수수료 10% 할인, partner.bybit.com/b/cryptocapo를 통한 최대 $30,000 USDT 보상. 스스로 정한 선을 공개적으로 밝혔다 — “my views remain entirely my own, focusing on spot markets, education and a sustainable approach to trading” 그리고 “Hence, I won't promote leverage” — 대부분의 거래소 계약보다 엄격한 선이다. 그럼에도 이는 거래하려고 가입하는 사람들로부터 나오는 수익 배분이다.
사용 중인 분석 플랫폼의 추천 링크(kiyotaka.ai/ref=CryptoCapo)를 2026년 5월 채널에 올렸다. 또한 이제 피드에 텔레그램 자체 광고가 뜬다는 점도 알렸다: “Ads might pop up here due to Telegram's new policy. I don't control them and they're not related to the content.”
이것이 제휴 링크보다 훨씬 무겁다. 본인이 들고 있는 비유동성 프라이버시 코인과 소형주의 매수 구간을 — $XMR, $ZEC, $ZANO, $ARRR, $XLM, $BCH, $TAO — 약 11만 6,800명의 텔레그램 독자와 X의 ~80만 명에게 “$XMR looks ready to take off.” 같은 문장과 함께 올린다. 위에서 차트로 그린 자산인 비트코인은, 여기서 거래하지 않는다고 말하는 유일한 대상이다. 이 정도 규모의 계정에서 나온 소형주 콜은 그에 맞게 가중치를 두고 보라.
채널 소개는 이렇게 경고한다: “This is the only TG that I have. Beware of scammers. I will never DM you first.” 이 이름을 쓰는 모방 텔레그램 채널과 유튜브 계정이 존재한다. 이 도시에는 계정 스스로 선언한 두 개의 핸들만 링크한다.
“As you know, I don't trade Bitcoin, but it's one of the main references for market direction.”
04 Mar 2026 · 위의 차트 전체를 규정하는 공개 고지“The analysis is not playing out yet, thus I'm wrong so far.”
11 Jun 2026 · 다섯 달째, 공개적으로 인정하며“Trade the charts, not the news.”
07 Apr 2026 · 독자들에게 늘 하는 당부“As always, my views remain entirely my own, focusing on spot markets, education and a sustainable approach to trading.”
16 Jul 2026 · Bybit 계약을 알리며Quotes transcribed from his own public sources; stated views, not recommendations.
연결할 영상 라이브러리가 없다. il Capo는 팟캐스트를 내지 않고 인증된 유튜브 채널도 운영하지 않는다 — 이 이름을 팔아 쓰는 채널들은 확인되지 않았고, 계정 자신이 사칭자를 경고한다. 산출물은 전부 X의 짧은 게시물과 무료 텔레그램 채널이며, 위의 모든 콜이 클립이 아니라 타임스탬프가 붙은 스크린샷 길이의 인용문인 이유가 바로 그것이다. 두 계정 모두 이 페이지 상단에 링크되어 있고, 차트 뒤에 있는 검증된 원문 전체는 각 카드에 출처로 달려 있다.
X에서 @CryptoCapo_로 약 80만 팔로워에게 글을 올리고, 약 11만 6,800명 규모의 무료 텔레그램 채널을 운영하는 익명의 크립토 분석가 겸 트레이더다. 검증된 이름, 얼굴, 국가가 공개된 적이 없고 대명사도 밝힌 적이 없다. 2017년부터 시장에 있었고, 2021–22년 비트코인 붕괴를 짚어내며 널리 알려졌다.
Both, at different times. They called Bitcoin below $23,000 in March 2022 from around $40,000 and it traded under $18,000 that June. They then held a $12,000 target that never arrived — NewsBTC reported in October 2024 that it had become “a running joke among some investors that whenever Capo makes a prediction, the market tends to do the opposite.” Across the twelve dated calls charted here (5 February – 24 September 2026), five played out, five are still open and two went against — including a 26.8% drawdown after they forecast a 1–2% dip.
유료 그룹은 발견되지 않았고, 텔레그램 채널은 무료이며 운영하는 유일한 채널이라고 선언되어 있다. 수익은 2026년 7월 발표된 Bybit 제휴 파트너십과 도구 추천 링크에서 나온다. 여기에 더해 비유동성 프라이버시 코인과 소형주를 보유하고 공개적으로 이름을 부른다 — 제휴 링크보다 이쪽이 더 무겁게 따져볼 이해충돌이다.
겹침으로 확인된 상위 시간대 지지 구간 — 오더블록, 이전 사상 최고가, 레인지 저점 — 을 유동성이 위에 쌓이고 심리가 가장 부정적일 때 매수한 뒤, 낙폭을 관통해 현물을 들고 가며 아래에 스톱을 두는 대신 위쪽에 확인 레벨을 지목하는 것이다. 현물만 거래하고 레버리지를 홍보하지 않겠다고 말하며, 본인의 포트폴리오는 비트코인이 아니라 프라이버시 코인이라고 밝힌다.
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