Checkmate

“The Bitcoin price looks coiled up across all time-frames, and yet there are still people trying to short it into the prophesied Q4 low. Good luck with that!”

Three days after his cycle-bottom call he said Bitcoin “wants to take even more bears out to the woodshed”, and mocked the shorts positioning for a Q4 low. The next daily close was $86,597 (+6.7%), and three days later he wrote that the rally had “squeezed a mountain of short traders from their positions”. BTC has not closed below his $81,169 since and is $82,171 (+1.2%) today — most of the squeeze has been given back, but the bears he was talking about did get taken out: played out.

“In my opinion, the equivalent level for The Bears Last Stand is $82k, which is a stone’s throw away, and I believe it will be very difficult to justify a bear case should it break.”

A rare precise level from a man who avoids them, and the mirror of his October 2025 $95k “bulls last stand”. BTC was $77,658; it dipped −2.7% to $75,590 on 16 September, then broke the line on 22 September with a close of $86,597 (+11.5%). Two days later he wrote that Bitcoin had “convincingly re-established a weekly scale uptrend by clearing the May high at $83k”. The break he said would make a bear case very hard to justify happened, and the bears who were short got squeezed — played out. BTC has since given much of it back to $82,171 (+5.8%), right at his line, so the retest is live; a slide back under it would reopen the question.

“This scenario is not my base case view, and not what my analysis of the data suggests is the most likely setup.”

Writing against “at least half a dozen bear market reports” that all pointed to a final low in the mid to low $40ks, he refused the consensus — while spending the piece stress-testing his own thesis against a $45k Bitcoin. The best-timed call on this page: BTC was $62,279 and has never closed lower since (low after = the day itself), running +39.0% to $86,597 on 22 September and standing at $82,171 (+31.9%) today. The $40ks never came within $16k.

“These are the conditions we historically see as we approach the pointy end of a bear market, where hopelessness peaks, and the maximum number of people start to truly believe the asset is never coming back.”

Total apathy, dead volumes, gutter sentiment — he read it as the end of the bear rather than the middle. BTC was $63,937, fell a further −8.4% to the window low of $58,566 eight days later, then never looked back: +35.4% to $86,597 on 22 September, and $82,171 (+28.5%) today. He called the chapter, not the wick, which is exactly what he says he tries to do.

“For the folks who missed the lows, many are about to buy far too much at the next local high, and get smoked once again on the pullback.”

With the bulls “running victory laps” and BTC at $81,437, he told the people who had missed the bottom not to chase. Four days later Bitcoin closed at $82,018 (+0.7%) — a close it would not beat again for more than four months — and from his warning it went on to fall −28.1% to $58,566 on 1 July. Anyone who bought that local high waited until 22 September to see it again. BTC is $82,171 today, +0.9% from the day he warned.

“consider that on a mean reversion basis, averaging relative to nine anchors (a mix of technical, onchain, trend, fast, slow etc), it is a Q 0.4 event. Lower than $2 Bitcoin in 2011.”

Not a target — a probability. Against the loudest bear number of the spring he put $40k in the 0.4th percentile of all daily deviations across nine anchor models, adding “there’s no zero probability in markets, but this would be a near-unprecedented outcome”. BTC was $76,326; its deepest close since was $58,566 (−23.3%) — painful, and still $18.5k above the level he ruled out. It stands at $82,171 (+7.7%).

“There isn’t much value in sugar coating it, as the world is in a very tricky spot, and the odds that conditions improve before they get worse…are not great.”

Two weeks after the miss below, he turned cautious with oil above $100 and BTC under $65k, and went looking for where the time-pain capitulation would bottom. It got worse first, as he said: from $65,947 BTC fell −11.2% to $58,566 by 1 July before turning and running to $86,597 (+31.3%) on 22 September. It sits at $82,171 (+24.6%) — the sequence he described, in the order he described it.

“If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when?”

Posted on 24 February — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,839 on 14 March. Mid-panic, he said “Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains” and told readers to dollar-cost-average for six months rather than hunt the wick — while explicitly warning that lower lows usually come first. Both halves landed. He put the 200-week MA at $58.5k; the window's actual low was $58,566 on 1 July, 0.1% above it. From the anchor that low was −17.3%; Bitcoin then ran to $86,597 (+22.2%) on 22 September and is $82,171 (+16.0%) today. The verdict rests on the level he named, which the moving anchor cannot change.