@novogratz
गोल्डमैन के पार्टनर से मैक्रो फंड मैनेजर और फिर क्रिप्टो सीईओ बने शख्स — और उन गिने-चुने बड़े बिटकॉइन बुल्स में से एक जो सार्वजनिक रूप से किसी राय पर स्तर और तारीख लिखते हैं और फिर उसके साथ जीते हैं। उनका 2026 इसी अंतर की मिसाल है: जहाँ उन्होंने कोई आँकड़ा बताया वहाँ वे ज़्यादातर सही रहे, और जहाँ उन्होंने बाज़ार का मिज़ाज बताया वहाँ ज़्यादातर गलत।
संक्षेप में। Mike Novogratz is founder, CEO and chairman of Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY), the crypto-and-AI-infrastructure firm he built after eleven years at Goldman Sachs and a run as a principal and macro-fund CIO at Fortress. He is a permanent-bull-with-caveats: his case for Bitcoin is a sovereign-debt case — a $39-40 trillion debt pile that in his view can only be inflated away — and it barely changes with price. What does change is his near-term read, and in 2026 that read has been unusually specific. In July he put a $60,000–$80,000 range on the rest of the year and said Bitcoin “probably holds $60,000”; it has, but price has since broken through the top of that range, peaking at $86,597. In late June he called the $59,000–$60,000 zone the level that mattered, four days before the actual low at $58,566. But in the same fortnight he told investors the market had “no energy” and “no new buyers” and to wait until March of next year — and Bitcoin promptly rallied 38.2%. In September his instinct that the CLARITY Act would reach the Senate floor was wrong within three days. Two weeks later, with Bitcoin near $84,000, he said $100,000 by year-end “will not surprise me”, the opposite lean to his April view. Three of the ten dated calls below played out, five are still open, and two went against him.
नोवोग्राट्ज़ 1989 में Goldman Sachs से जुड़े, एशिया और लैटिन अमेरिका में फिक्स्ड-इनकम कारोबार चलाया और 1998 में पार्टनर चुने गए। 2002 में वे प्रिंसिपल के रूप में Fortress Investment Group गए और बाद में अध्यक्ष तथा Fortress Macro Fund के मुख्य निवेश अधिकारी रहे। 2018 में उन्होंने Galaxy Digital की स्थापना की, जो आज नैस्डैक-सूचीबद्ध फर्म है और संस्थानों को ट्रेडिंग, सलाह, एसेट मैनेजमेंट, स्टेकिंग, कस्टडी तथा टोकनाइज़ेशन देती है। वे प्रिंसटन से अर्थशास्त्र के स्नातक हैं और उनकी संपत्ति अनुमानतः $5.8 billion है।
2026 में Galaxy के बारे में समझने लायक सबसे अहम बात यह है कि यह अब सिर्फ़ क्रिप्टो कारोबार नहीं रहा। कंपनी बिटकॉइन माइनिंग से पूरी तरह बाहर निकल चुकी है और उन साइटों को एआई तथा हाई-परफॉर्मेंस कंप्यूटिंग के डेटा सेंटरों में बदल दिया है, जिनका केंद्र टेक्सस का 1.6-गीगावाट Helios कैंपस है और ग्राहकों में CoreWeave शामिल है। यह मोड़ एक क्रूर क्रिप्टो बाज़ार के बीच आया: Galaxy ने 2025 की चौथी तिमाही में $0.92 की उम्मीद के मुकाबले प्रति शेयर $1.08 का घाटा दिखाया — शेयर एक दिन में 16.87% गिरा — और फिर 2026 की पहली तिमाही में डिजिटल एसेट की कीमतें गिरने से $216 million का शुद्ध घाटा, राजस्व 22% घटकर लगभग $10 billion। तो जब वे कहते हैं कि वे तेज़ी में हैं, तो वे उस बही की बात कर रहे हैं जो पैसा गँवाती रही है, और उस कुर्सी से जहाँ कारोबार का दूसरा आधा हिस्सा अब एआई कंपनियों को बिजली बेचता है। ये दोनों तथ्य रिकॉर्ड का हिस्सा हैं।
Sources: galaxy.com · x.com/novogratz · dated third-party coverage (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, Benzinga, Stocktwits, The Daily Hodl)
ऊपर से नीचे मैक्रो, पहले सरकारी कर्ज़। नोवोग्राट्ज़ बिटकॉइन को राजकोषीय अनुशासन का रिपोर्ट कार्ड मानते हैं: घाटा, कर्ज़-से-जीडीपी का रास्ता, डॉलर और इन सबके चलते फेड को क्या करना पड़ता है। वहाँ से वे प्रवाह और बाज़ार की नलसाज़ी तक उतरते हैं — सीमांत खरीदार कौन है, सट्टेबाज़ी का पैसा एआई शेयरों या स्पोर्ट्स बेटिंग में चला गया है या नहीं, Strategy का बैलेंस शीट भरोसे के साथ क्या कर रहा है — और उसके बाद ही स्तरों तक। फंड चलाने वाले के लिए असामान्य रूप से वे ये स्तर ज़ोर से बोलते हैं: साल का एक दायरा, एक अहम सपोर्ट ज़ोन, एक आँकड़ा जो बताएगा कि सपोर्ट टिका। उनकी सबसे बड़ी ताकत है दबाव में आए ज़ोन को पहचानना; सबसे बड़ी कमज़ोरी है भावना के मोड़ का समय पकड़ना, जहाँ वे बार-बार तल से कुछ ही दिन पहले सबसे निराशावादी रहे हैं।
Structurally bullish on Bitcoin for debt-and-debasement reasons that do not move with price, and turning more constructive near term: his July base case was $60k–$80k, but by late September, with BTC above that ceiling, he said $100k by year-end would not surprise him.
Ten dated statements from a rolling 2026 sample — seven from dated third-party coverage, two from his own X account, one from his own podcast's clip — each re-fetched from its source and confirmed verbatim on that page before it was charted. The split below is the point of the dossier: when Novogratz named a number he was mostly right, and when he described the market's mood he was mostly wrong, sometimes within the same week. The 27 June and 24 June cards are three days apart and pull in opposite directions; both are here.
“I still like the chart. It will not surprise me if we're at $100K by year end.”
Said on All Things Markets, the podcast he co-hosts with Anthony Scaramucci, in the episode published on 26 September; the show's own account posted the clip two days later. It is a softer claim than a target (“will not surprise me”), but it names a level and a deadline, and it marks a turn. In April he said it was “not my prediction” that Bitcoin breaks $100,000 this year, and in July his base case topped out at $80,000. From $84,076 BTC has traded between $83,479 (−0.7%) and $86,490 (+2.9%) and sits at $84,009 (−0.1%) today, still needing +19% to reach $100k. The deadline is 31 December, after this chart ends, so it is logged open. The card is dated to the episode, not the clip; the episode discusses the 15 September Senate vote, so it was recorded after it.
𝕏 Post“It will not surprise me if we're at $100K by year end” — All Things Markets clip on X, posted 28 Sep 2026 (episode of 26 Sep 2026)↗ x.com“Clarity isn't dead!! Lots of negotiating over the weekend. My instinct is the bill makes it to the floor. It all depends on if we get the White House to move on ethics to see if we get a law.”
The CLARITY Act was the first item on his own list of what Bitcoin needed to reach $100k, so this was a market call as much as a political one — and it was falsifiable. It failed: the bill lost its procedural Senate vote on 15 September, three days later, short of the 60 needed. So the falsifiable half of the post was wrong inside three days — but the tape never punished it. From $77,204 BTC dipped to $75,590 (−2.1%), then ran to $86,597 (+12.2%) on 22 September and sits at $84,009 (+8.8%) today. Wrong on the bill, right side of the price: logged open rather than against, because the chart does not support scoring it a loss. His own verdict the morning after: “Govt feels broken.”
𝕏 Post“Clarity isn't dead!!” — Mike Novogratz on X, 12 Sep 2026↗ x.com“It's the govts inability to deal with its spending addiction that keeps me bullish BTC even in a year where the energy in the crypto space is low.”
Posted on the July deficit print — $334bn in, $766bn out, a $432bn hole in one month — with Bitcoin flat on its back near the lows. He stayed long the thesis anyway, and it worked: from $63,409 BTC dipped only −0.9% to $62,844 before running +36.6% to $86,597, and it is +32.5% at $84,009 today. The cleanest bullish call in this sample.
SourceUS fiscal deficits keep Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz bullish on Bitcoin (The Daily Hodl, reporting his 13 Aug X post)↗ dailyhodl.com“I think Bitcoin probably holds $60,000. There's too many people who have bought into the Bitcoin story as its own store of value for it to go away”
His most precise call of the year: a base case of $60,000–$80,000 for the rest of 2026, with $100k requiring three things he named — the Clarity Act, Fed cuts and a reignited buyer base. The floor held. From $64,670 the lowest BTC has traded is $62,773 (−2.9%), comfortably above $60k. The ceiling did not hold: BTC first closed above $80,000 on 28 August, peaked at $86,597 (+33.9%), 8.2% through the top of his range, and trades at $84,009 (+29.9%) today, some 5.0% over the $80,000 top. The floor call is what is charted here and it held; the top of the range has broken, so the range as a whole was set too low. None of his three $100k conditions has been met and $100k has not come, though by 26 September he was saying it would not surprise him (see that card).
SourceBillionaire investor says Bitcoin could hit $100,000 only if these things happen (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ sg.finance.yahoo.com“Every young kid who used to buy Solana is buying Hynix or some memory company”
An observation about where speculative money had gone, not a price target — but it was a dated claim that Solana's marginal buyer had left, and charted against price it aged badly. From $76.31 SOL dipped just −5.8% to $71.89, then ran +60.0% to $122.08 and holds $118.17 (+54.9%) — outperforming the Bitcoin he was defending in the same interview. Logged went against on the evidence, with the caveat that he never put a number on SOL.
SourceBillionaire investor says Bitcoin could hit $100,000 only if these things happen (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ sg.finance.yahoo.com“Bessent came and piled on as a strong dollar guy. You know, strong dollar is weak Bitcoin.”
He explained the sell-off as a “MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence” compounded by a hawkish Fed and a Treasury Secretary suddenly talking the dollar up — with Strategy sitting on roughly $14bn of unrealised losses and traders, in his words, trying to “jam Bitcoin super down and explode him.” It is a diagnosis, not a target, so it is logged open. Worth noting what happened next: he said it at $59,495, two days before the low at $58,566 (−1.6%), after which BTC rallied +45.6% to $86,597 and now sits +41.2% higher.
SourceBillionaire investor reveals key reasons behind Bitcoin's decline (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“I wish I had compared the Alibaba chart and the Bitcoin chart before I bought it,”
On his podcast he called a hold of the $59,000–$60,000 area “stunningly important”, said a break would open the door to $45,000, and gave the market a tripwire for the following week: around $55,000 meant lower to come, near $62,000 meant the support had held. The tripwire fired bullish. From $60,022 the low was $58,566 (−2.4%) on 1 July — within touching distance of his zone and four days ahead of the actual bottom — then $62,554 printed on 4 July and BTC ran +44.3% to $86,597. His $45,000 never came. The even-odds bet he attached to it — $45k before $85k — has now resolved: BTC closed above $85,000 on 22 September without revisiting $45k.
SourceGalaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says a turn in Alibaba could signal Bitcoin has bottomed (Stocktwits / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“Right now, it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers”
Debating Anthony Scaramucci, he argued the bid had simply gone — and told long-term investors to wait until “March of next year before you scratch your head”. Six days later Bitcoin bottomed. From $62,662 it fell only −6.5% to $58,566 and then rallied +38.2% to $86,597, sitting +34.1% higher today — and it did it without the Fed pivot he said the debasement trade was waiting for. A dated, falsifiable read on sentiment that the tape refuted inside three months.
SourceBillionaire investor issues Bitcoin warning — why he's ‘worried’ about BTC's future (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“We actually need inflation”
The engine under every bullish thing he says: with US debt near $39.2 trillion, his view is that Washington cannot grow out of it and must quietly inflate it away — run 4% while promising 2% for a decade — with the risk being that expectations unanchor and the managed burn becomes a spiral. That is a multi-year macro thesis with no level and no deadline, so it is logged open. For the record, BTC is +26.7% since, from $66,293 to $84,009, having first fallen −11.7% to $58,566.
SourceVeteran investor reveals one way out of $40 trillion U.S. debt (TheStreet / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.com“It's not my prediction that we break [$100,000] this year”
Said on Galaxy's Q1 earnings call, the same day the firm reported a $216 million net loss. A rare bull publicly refusing a bullish number: he argued a move back over $100k needed Fed easing that “ugly inflation prints” from the war in Iran would prevent. So far he is right — from $77,367 the highest BTC has managed is $86,597 (+11.9%), and it is $84,009 (+8.6%) today, needing +19% in under three months to prove him wrong. But the call runs to year-end, past this chart, so it stays open rather than scored. Note the cost of the same view being early: BTC fell −24.3% to $58,566 in between. He has since softened it: on 26 September he said $100k by year-end would not surprise him (charted separately).
SourceBitcoin won't crack $100K this year, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says (Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)↗ finance.yahoo.comOutcomes are our read of his stated bias against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring. Each card is dated by when the words were actually said — the source's own publication date, or the tweet's timestamp, or a date the page itself states (the 28 April card is a Q1 earnings call the article names explicitly; the 26 September card is dated to the podcast episode, not the clip posted two days later). Anything whose horizon runs past this chart window is logged still open, never as a win. Near-term marks can flip.
नोवोग्राट्ज़ पोर्टफोलियो रखने वाले टिप्पणीकार भर नहीं हैं — वे नैस्डैक-सूचीबद्ध उस कंपनी के संस्थापक, सीईओ, चेयरमैन और सबसे बड़े सार्वजनिक चेहरा हैं जिसकी आमदनी क्रिप्टो गतिविधि पर और बढ़ते हुए एआई के लिए बिजली पर निर्भर है। उनके X अकाउंट पर औपचारिक Galaxy संबद्धता बैज है। वे जो कुछ भी कहते हैं, उसी कुर्सी से कहते हैं।
उन्होंने इसे बनाया, वही इसे चलाते हैं और वही इसके बोर्ड के अध्यक्ष हैं। Galaxy संस्थानों के लिए ट्रेडिंग, उधार, एसेट मैनेजमेंट, स्टेकिंग और कस्टडी करती है — यानी ज़्यादा जीवंत क्रिप्टो बाज़ार सीधे-सीधे बेहतर तिमाही है। कंपनी ने 2026 की पहली तिमाही में $216m गँवाए, राजस्व 22% घटकर लगभग $10bn रह गया, और इससे पहले 2025 की चौथी तिमाही की चूक ने शेयर को एक ही सत्र में 16.87% गिरा दिया था।
Galaxy बिटकॉइन माइनिंग से पूरी तरह बाहर निकल चुकी है और उन साइटों को एआई तथा हाई-परफॉर्मेंस कंप्यूटिंग डेटा सेंटरों में बदल दिया है — टेक्सस का 1.6GW Helios कैंपस, CoreWeave जैसे ग्राहक, टेक्सस में 500 एकड़ की दूसरी साइट और $75m का स्टेडियम नामकरण सौदा। उनके कारोबार का आधा हिस्सा अब उसी एआई उछाल से कमाता है जिसे वे क्रिप्टो के खरीदार सोख लेने का दोष देते हैं — यह याद रखना उपयोगी है जब वे बताते हैं कि सट्टेबाज़ी का पैसा कहाँ गया।
उनकी संपत्ति अनुमानतः $5.8 billion है, जिसका अधिकांश Galaxy और डिजिटल एसेट्स से जुड़ा है, और वे क्रिप्टो कानून के लिए सार्वजनिक रूप से पैरवी करते हैं — ऊपर की कॉल वाला CLARITY Act वही कानून है जिससे उनकी अपनी फर्म को फ़ायदा होता। धारकों के साथ एक दिशा में, और खुले तौर पर हितबद्ध।
“I think Bitcoin probably holds $60,000.”
20 Jul 2026 · वह बयान जो सही निकला“Right now, it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers”
24 Jun 2026 · तल से छह दिन पहले“Govt feels broken. 18 months of work between our industry, Democrats, and Republicans, and Clarity falls apart on the 5-yard line,”
16 Sep 2026 · उनका अपना अंदाज़ा चूकने के बादउद्धरण उनके अपने सार्वजनिक स्रोतों से लिए गए हैं; ये व्यक्त किए गए विचार हैं, सिफ़ारिशें नहीं।
There is no video library to link — Novogratz hosts no YouTube channel of his own, and Galaxy's is corporate. His market talk lives in other people's programmes and on X, which is exactly why every call above links to a dated page carrying the quoted words. The appearances charted here are the SALT and All-In Markets podcasts with Anthony Scaramucci (13–24 Jun), his own All Things Markets episode with Scaramucci (27 Jun), a further podcast recap (29 Jun), a July interview (20 Jul), Galaxy's Q1 earnings call (28 Apr), his own X posts of 13 Aug and 12 Sep, and the 26 Sep All Things Markets episode.
Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY) के संस्थापक, सीईओ और चेयरमैन। उन्होंने Goldman Sachs में ग्यारह साल बिताए, 1998 में पार्टनर बने, फिर प्रिंसिपल और मैक्रो-फंड सीआईओ के रूप में Fortress Investment Group गए और 2018 में Galaxy की स्थापना की। वे प्रिंसटन से अर्थशास्त्र के स्नातक हैं, उनकी संपत्ति अनुमानतः 5.8 अरब डॉलर है, और वे बाज़ार के सबसे ज़्यादा उद्धृत संस्थागत बिटकॉइन बुल्स में से एक हैं।
His stated 2026 base case, given in July, was a $60,000–$80,000 range for the rest of the year; Bitcoin has since broken above the top of it. He said in April that it is “not my prediction” that Bitcoin breaks $100,000 this year, and named three conditions for six figures: the CLARITY Act passing, the Fed cutting rates, and a new buyer base. None has happened, but on 26 September he said $100,000 by year-end “will not surprise me”. Longer term he argues US debt can only be inflated away, which is his structural bull case.
Mixed, and the chart above says so: three of ten dated 2026 calls played out, five are still open and two went against him. He named the $59k–$60k bottom zone four days before the low and his $60,000 floor has held — but he also told investors in late June there were “no new buyers” and to wait until March 2027, six days before a 38.2% rally, and his September instinct that the CLARITY Act would reach the Senate floor failed within three days.
वे फंड और कंपनी के कार्यकारी हैं, लाइसेंस प्राप्त सलाहकार नहीं, और उनकी फर्म की आमदनी उसी बाज़ार पर निर्भर है जिस पर वे टिप्पणी करते हैं — Galaxy संस्थानों के लिए क्रिप्टो की ट्रेडिंग, उधारी और प्रबंधन करती है, और वे क्रिप्टो कानून के लिए खुलकर पैरवी करते हैं। यहाँ उनका रिकॉर्ड सचमुच मिला-जुला है। उनकी राय को दस्तावेज़ी, तिथियुक्त और हितबद्ध राय मानें — कभी आँख मूँदकर उस पर ट्रेड न करें।
नोवोग्राट्ज़ सरकारी कर्ज़ से शुरू करके ऊपर से नीचे काम करते हैं, फिर एक दायरा बताते हैं और उसी के भीतर रहते हैं। आपकी समझ कितनी करीब है — Trader Passport से इसे सचमुच नापिए।
अब अपने तरीक़े को काम पर लगाइए। अपनी बढ़त को लाइव बाज़ार डेटा पर परखिए — बिना पूँजी जोखिम के — असली इनामों वाले मुफ़्त BuyCrypt टूर्नामेंट में।
सूचनात्मक और शैक्षिक विश्लेषण, जो सख़्ती से सार्वजनिक रूप से उपलब्ध सामग्री (तिथियुक्त तीसरे पक्ष की रिपोर्टिंग और उनकी अपनी सार्वजनिक X पोस्टें, हर बात पर लिंक) पर आधारित है। यह वित्तीय या निवेश सलाह नहीं है। आँकड़े अनुमानित हैं और लगातार बदलते रहते हैं। Spotted an error, or are you Mike? सुधार प्रस्तुत करें →
सत्यापित हैंडल · ऊपर उद्धृत स्रोत · स्कोरिंग पद्धति · अद्यतन किया गया 7 October 2026
