@willywoo
Manazarcin da ya mai da “on-chain” ya zama wani fanni na daban. Woo ba ya karanta kyandir — yana karanta inda kuɗi ke gudana da gaske: kwararar masu zuba jari, farashin da aka gane, da farashin sayan masu saye na kwanan nan. A duk shekarar 2026 wannan samfurin ya sa ya ci gaba da tsammanin faɗuwa yayin da mafi yawan kasuwar crypto ke neman ƙasa, kuma farashin ya yarda da shi a mafi yawan lokuta. Inda bai yarda ba, tazarar ta yi girma — yankin ƙasa na 46k–54k bai taɓa bugu ba.
A taƙaice. Willy Woo yana daga cikin manazarta on-chain na Bitcoin na farko — mahaliccin ma'aunin NVT (“P/E na Bitcoin”), mai buga ɗakin karatun ginshiƙai na Woobull, kuma marubucin wasiƙar mako-mako Bitcoin Vector Lite a Substack. Tsarinsa da gangan ba nazarin fasaha ba ne: yana yin samfurin kwararar ruwan kuɗin masu zuba jari kuma yana kwatanta farashi da farashin sayan on-chain (farashin masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci, farashin da aka gane, ƙasan CVDD) don faɗi inda kasuwa take a zagayenta. A 2026 wannan samfurin ya mai da shi ɗaya daga cikin manyan muryoyi mafi dorewa a bangaren faɗuwa — kuma, a matakan da suka fi muhimmanci, mai gaskiya sosai: ya kira tashin Maris tarko na hauhawa, kuma an ƙi shi daidai inda ya faɗa. Har ila yau yana da manufofi da ba su taɓa zuwa ba, tun daga $250k a 2021 zuwa ƙasan 46k–54k na wannan shekarar.
Woo ya shigo kasuwanni daga fannin software — bayanan da aka buga sun bayyana shi a matsayin mai shirya kwamfuta da aka haifa a Hong Kong kuma ya girma a New Zealand, wanda ya gina ya kuma sayar da kamfanoni kafin ya koma kasuwanci, kuma ya sayi bitcoin ɗinsa na farko a ƙarshen 2013. Abin da ya sanya masa suna ba ciniki ba ne sai dai ma'auni: a 2017 ya yaɗa ma'aunin NVT, ƙimar hanyar sadarwa a raba da yawan mu'amaloli, wanda aka gabatar a matsayin “Bitcoin's P/E ratio”. Ya zama kayan aikin ƙima na on-chain na farko da aka yi amfani da shi sosai, kuma ɗakin karatun ginshiƙai na Woobull da ya girma a kusa da shi har yanzu shi ne ma'aunin da ake dogaro da shi. A yau yana buga Bitcoin Vector Lite mako-mako a Substack — “views into BTC's underlying structure through the lens of investor flows” — tare da matakin biya a bayansa.
Tarihin yana yankewa ta ɓangarorin biyu kuma kuskurorin sun yi girma. A 29 ga Afrilu 2021 ya faɗa a SALT Talks cewa Bitcoin “could reach $250K to $300K by the end of that cycle”, daga baya ya miƙa shi zuwa $300K–$400K idan kuɗin cibiyoyi suka shigo; Bitcoin ya kai kololuwa kusa da $69,000 a Nuwamban wannan shekarar. A Satumban 2025, lokacin da BTC ya sauko daga tarihin $124,457, ya ba da shawarar cewa zai iya “could race up to $140,000–$160,000” — yana ƙara cewa ba zai iya tabbatarwa ba. Bai taɓa faruwa ba. Kuma a 11 ga Janairu 2026 ya wallafa “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026”: ɓangaren faɗuwa ya tsufa da kyau, ɓangaren hauhawa kuwa a'a — Bitcoin ya faɗi daga $89,212 a 29 ga Janairu zuwa $67,017 a 1 ga Maris, −25% kai tsaye a cikin tagar da ya ce yana tsammanin hauhawa. Wannan saƙon Janairu yana wajen ginshiƙin da ke ƙasa; hasashe biyar da suka biyo baya duk suna cikinsa.
Sources: x.com/willywoo (verified via X syndication) · woobull.com · willywoo.substack.com · Bitcoin.com News · Yahoo Finance
Kwarara da farko, farashi na biyu. Ma'aunin nazarin Woo shi ne jari, ba kyandir ba: nawa kuɗi na gaske ke shiga ko fita daga Bitcoin da yadda hakan ke kwatantuwa da ƙarfin farashin da ya kamata ya goyi bayansa. Kayan aikin da suke maimaituwa su ne farashin sayan on-chain — farashin masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci (matsayin daidaito na masu saye a kwanaki 155 da suka wuce), farashin da aka gane, da ƙasan CVDD — tare da samfuransa na kwararar masu zuba jari da kallo kan haɗarin kasuwanni daban-daban (canjin farashin hannun jari, ruwan kuɗi na macro). Wannan yana ba shi tsari da haƙuri: zai iya cewa “Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation” kuma yana nufin haka. Raunin kuma daidai yake. Samfuran kwarara suna da kyau wajen gane yanayin kasuwa (faɗuwa ko hauhawa) amma ba su da kyau wajen girman motsi — hasashensa na hanya sun dore fiye da ainihin lambobin da ke tare da su.
Yana tsammanin faɗuwa a 2026 a duk wannan taga — samfuransa na kwarara sun nuna ruwan kuɗi na raunana idan aka kwatanta da farashi tun Janairun 2025. Wannan matsayi ne na zagaye, ba canjin ra'ayi ba: a daban, an rubuta yana tsammanin Bitcoin zai ƙare a lambobi bakwai, sai dai a cikin shekaru 12–16.
Saƙonni biyar masu kwanan wata daga 2026, an zana su a kan ainihin farashi tun ranar da ya faɗe su. Kowace maganar da aka nakalto a ƙasa an ɗauko ta ne daga madogarar rarrabawa ta X ko daga labarin mai kwanan wata da ya ɗauke ta — ba a sake fassara komai ba. Woo yana aiki da yanayi da matakai maimakon manufofi na layi ɗaya, don haka kowace katin tana ƙididdige takamaiman abin da ya faɗa: shin ƙin ya faru inda ya ce, shin matakin ya karye, shin ƙasan ya bugu a yankin. Ya yi gaskiya kan siffar kasuwa daga Fabrairu zuwa Afrilu kuma ya yi kuskure kan zurfin faɗuwar.
“This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.”
Hasashe mai sassa uku, kuma dukkan uku sun faru. BTC yana $67,497. Ya tsaya a gefe kusan wata guda, ya tashi zuwa tsakiyar 70s — $74,679 a 17 ga Maris, +10.6% — kuma an ƙi shi a can, ya koma $65,947 (−2.3%) zuwa 30 ga Maris. Daga baya ya faɗi har zuwa $58,566 (−13.2%) kafin ya farfaɗo zuwa $78,230, +15.9% yau. Kuskuren rubutu a “repreive” nasa ne; muna nakalto saƙonni kamar yadda aka rubuta su.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 27 February 2026↗ x.com“BTC sold off WAY TOO FAST in this early bear market and current conditions are setting up to test mid-80s which is the cost basis of short term investors.”
Hukunci mai rabi biyu, don haka mun rubuta shi a matsayin buɗe. Tsarin ya yi daidai: ya ce tashin tarko ne na hauhawa kuma “NOT me saying the bottom is in”, kuma daga $67,340 BTC ya tashi, ya juya, kuma daga ƙarshe ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 (−13.0%) a 1 ga Yuli. Manufar kuwa ba ta yi daidai ba. Bitcoin bai taɓa gwada tsakiyar 80s ba — mafi girman da ya kai shi ne $82,018 a 11 ga Mayu, +21.8%, kuma hakan ya ɗauki watanni biyu. Yanzu yana $78,230 (+16.2%), har yanzu ƙasa da matakin da yake tsammani zai kai.
Source‘Bull Trap Forming’ — Willy Woo Says Bottom Not In for Bitcoin (Bitcoin.com News, 9 Mar 2026)↗ news.bitcoin.com“I’d agree with this picture with the rejection at STH price which is 84k and dropping each day. Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation.”
Ya ambaci matakin da kuma tsawon lokaci. BTC yana $71,304; an ƙi shi nan take, ya sauka zuwa $65,947 (−7.5%) cikin kwanaki huɗu, kuma “mid bear consolidation” ta ɗauki watanni maimakon makonni. Muhimmin abu: farashin bai taɓa kai layin masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci a 84k ba da ya sanya a matsayin rufi — mafi girma a duk lokacin tun daga lokacin shi ne $82,018 (+15.0%) — kafin ya zame zuwa $58,566 (−17.9%) a 1 ga Yuli. Yau yana $78,230 (+9.7%), har yanzu ƙasa da layinsa.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 26 March 2026↗ x.com“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait.”
Lambarsa mafi takamaimai — kuma ita ce ta ci tura. Daga $65,947 yana nuni zuwa 18–30% ƙasa, tare da samfurin ƙasan CVDD a 45.5k. Bitcoin bai taɓa isa can ba. Mafi ƙasƙancin rufewa tun daga lokacin shi ne $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli, −11.2% daga saƙonsa kuma 8.5% sama da ƙarshen sama na yankinsa — kuma farashin tun daga lokacin ya tashi zuwa $78,230, +18.6% sama da inda ya yi kiran ƙasa. Sabon faɗuwa na iya tabbatar da shi tukuna; bisa bayanan da ake da su yanzu, bai tabbata ba.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 30 March 2026↗ x.com“The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k). I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.”
Hasashe mai sharaɗi, kuma sharaɗin ya faɗi daidai yadda ya yi gargaɗi. BTC yana $77,367. Hakika ya karya 79k — reshen 30% — ya kai kololuwa a $82,018 (+6.0%) a 11 ga Mayu. Amma ya ƙara cewa ƙasa mai tsari kawai zai yiwu “if BTC manages to hold this price level above $65K and not break down”, kuma cewa “the next 3-6 weeks will be telling”. Ya karye ƙasa: bayan makonni tara Bitcoin ya rufe a $58,566, −24.3%. Babu ƙasa mai tsari, daidai kamar yadda ya gabatar. Farashin yanzu shi ne $78,230 (+1.1%) — watanni huɗu na zagaye.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 28 April 2026↗ x.comSakamakon shi ne yadda muka karanta abin da ya faɗa idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashin CoinGecko, ba ƙididdigar kansa ba. Farashin rufewa ne; “ƙasan bayan” shi ne mafi ƙasƙancin rufewa tsakanin ranar magana da yau. Alamun buɗe za su iya sauyawa yayin da zagayen ke warwarewa — hasashen yankin ƙasa ba ya zama kuskure gaba ɗaya sai zagayen ya ƙare gaba ɗaya.
Woo yana sayar da bincike, ba sigina ko tokens ba — tsari mai tsafta fiye da yawancin masu wannan jerin. Duk da haka yana ƙirƙirar dalili da ya kamata a ambata: wasiƙar biya kan gano ƙasan zagaye ta fi daraja muddin ƙasan yana gaba.
Bitcoin Vector Lite a Substack kyauta ne tare da matakin biya; samfuran kwarara masu zurfi suna bayansa. Biyan kuɗi shi ne kasuwancin da ake gani.
woobull.com da ma'aunin NVT sun kasance kyauta shekaru da yawa — suna aiki a matsayin farkon hanya kuma a matsayin dalilin da ya sa ake nakalto shi ko kaɗan.
Wannan ita ce bayyanawar da ta fi muhimmanci. A Mayun 2023 Syz Group ta sanar da SyzCrest Digital Uncorrelated, asusun hedge na crypto da banki ke goyon baya wanda aka ƙaddamar tare da Woo da CMCC Global, tana bayyana shi a matsayin managing partner na CMCC Global & Crest Fund, mai ba da shawara ga asusun Ama da general partner a S2F Fund; bayanan da aka buga sun kuma lissafa zuba jari na matakin farko a kamfanonin crypto. Waɗannan matsayin sun fito ne daga jaridun 2023 kuma ba mu tabbatar da waɗanne ne har yanzu suke aiki ba. Ba a bayyana matsayin riƙo saƙo-da-saƙo, don haka ka ɗauki kowane takamaiman hasashe a matsayin mai yiwuwa yana daidai da fayil ɗin da ba ka gani.
“3 things happen at the end of bear markets. 1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles). 2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price 3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)”
05 Apr 2026 · duk tsarinsa a saƙo ɗaya“I could see a future where BTC trades sideways for 8-12 yrs remaining 5-6 figures, then 12-16 yrs out a god candle to multiple 7 figures.”
05 Apr 2026 · dogon lokaci a ƙarƙashin shekarar faɗuwa“I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.”
11 Jan 2026 · rabi daidai — rabin hauhawa ya kuskure da 25%Karin magana daga bidiyoyin sa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Woo yana bugawa a rubuce, ba a gaban kyamara ba — ginshiƙan Woobull da wasiƙar mako-mako Bitcoin Vector Lite. Tarihinsa na bidiyo shi ne podcasts na wasu mutane. Bayyanuwa masu wakilci:
Bitcoin Needs To Adapt Now | With Willy WooLook Into Bitcoin — an yi rikodin kwanaki bayan hasashen ƙasa na 46k–54k da ke sama.10 Apr 2026
The Bull Market, Institutional Adoption & 2026 Recession? | Willy WooWhat Bitcoin Did — inda ya fara gabatar da 2026 a matsayin gwajin gaskiya na zagayen.26 Aug 2025
Trader legend Willy Woo: A 80% Bitcoin drawdown again is possibleLess Noise More Signal — yanayin faɗuwa, watanni shida kafin ya buƙace shi.25 Sep 2025
Bitcoin Whales Dumping As Liquidity Crisis Hits | Willy Woo Reveals The EndgameThe Wolf Of All Streets — tare da Scott Melker, wanda fayil ɗinsa ma yana cikin wannan jerin.14 Sep 2025Woo yana a gefen nazari na crypto — kusa da CryptoQuant da Glassnode fiye da asusun ginshiƙai. Taswirar da'irorin da yake shiga; hanyoyin fayiloli suna haɗuwa yayin da bayanan ke ƙaruwa.
Ɗayan manazarcin Bitcoin mai fifita samfuri a wannan jerin — samfuri daban, kuskure iri ɗaya: lambar kanun labari da ta wuce gona da iri.
Yana karɓarsa akai-akai a The Wolf Of All Streets — shirin ruwan kuɗi na Satumban 2025 yana cikin ɗakin karatu da ke sama.
Mafi kusanci a wannan jerin: yana dogara da bayanai, mai taka-tsantsan a tsari, kuma mai tsammanin faɗuwa a 2026 saboda dalilai masu kama da juna.
Tsarin macro-ruwan kuɗi da ya fara daga tushe ɗaya — kwarara ce ke motsa farashi — kuma ya kai ga ƙarshe mai fifita hauhawa sosai.
Manazarcin on-chain na Bitcoin, wanda aka fi sani da yaɗa ma'aunin NVT — ƙimar hanyar sadarwa a raba da yawan mu'amaloli, wanda aka gabatar a matsayin “Bitcoin's P/E ratio” — da kuma ɗakin karatun ginshiƙai na Woobull. Yana rubuta wasiƙar mako-mako Bitcoin Vector Lite a Substack kuma yana da kusan mabiya 1.1M a X, inda yake wallafawa yanzu a matsayin @willywoo (a dā @woonomic).
A duk 2026 ya kasance mai tsammanin faɗuwa: samfuransa na on-chain sun nuna ƙasa tsakanin $46,000 da $54,000, tare da ƙasan CVDD kusa da $45,500 lokacin da ya faɗe shi a Maris. Wannan yankin bai bugu ba — mafi ƙasƙancin rufewar Bitcoin tun daga lokacin shi ne $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli. A daban, ya gabatar da ra'ayi mai tsawon lokaci sosai: Bitcoin zai tafi a gefe shekaru 8–12 kafin ya koma lambobi bakwai.
Cakuɗe, kuma tsarin daidai yake: mai ƙarfi kan hanya, mai rauni kan girma. A wannan taga hasashensa na ƙin a Fabrairu da matakinsa na gaba a Maris duk sun tabbata daidai, kuma karatunsa na Afrilu cewa abubuwan da ake buƙata don ƙasa ba su cika ba an tabbatar da shi da faɗuwar 24%. Amma yankin ƙasa nasa na $46k–$54k bai taɓa zuwa ba, manufarsa ta 2021 ta $250k–$300k ta kuskure kusan sau huɗu, kuma saƙonsa na Janairun 2026 — “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026” — ya jefa rabin hauhawa kai tsaye cikin faɗuwar 25%.
Ma'aunin Woo da aka fi sani: ƙimar hanyar sadarwa ta Bitcoin (market cap) a raba da ƙimar dala da aka aika a kan sarkar. Karatu mai girma yana nuna cewa farashi ya gaba da amfanin tattalin arzikin hanyar sadarwa; karatu mai ƙanƙanta yana nuna akasin haka. Ya gabatar da shi a matsayin madaidaicin on-chain na ma'aunin farashi-zuwa-riba na hannun jari, kuma ya buɗe ƙofa ga duk fannin nazarin on-chain.
Woo yana watsi da kyandir kuma yana bin kuɗi — kwarara, farashin saye, da haƙurin zama watanni ba tare da motsi ba. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu gano wanne ne ke biya da gaske. Gwada ƙwarewarka a kan bayanan kasuwa kai tsaye — ba tare da haɗarin jari ba — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyautuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayanai da ilimi wanda ya dogara kacokan kan kayan da jama'a za su iya samu — saƙonninsa masu kwanan wata a X (an ɗauko su kalma-da-kalma daga madogarar rarrabawa ta X ta jama'a) da rahotannin ɓangare na uku masu kwanan wata, waɗanda aka haɗa a kowace magana. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko zuba jari ba ce. Lambobin kusan-kusan ne kuma suna canjawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Willy? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 26 August 2026
