@willywoo
The analyst who made “on-chain” a category. Woo doesn't read candles — he reads where money actually moves: investor flows, realised prices, the cost basis of recent buyers. Through most of 2026 that model kept him bearish while the rest of crypto looked for a bottom, and the price mostly agreed with him. Where it didn't, it didn't by a wide margin — his 46k–54k bottom zone never printed. In September, with long-term liquidity returning, he turned: on 16 September he put 90% odds on the bottom being in.
A taƙaice. Willy Woo is one of the original Bitcoin on-chain analysts — creator of the NVT ratio (“Bitcoin's P/E”), publisher of the Woobull chart library, and author of the weekly Bitcoin Vector Lite letter on Substack. His framework is deliberately not technical analysis: he models investor liquidity flows and compares price against on-chain cost bases (short-term-holder price, realised price, the CVDD floor) to say where the market is in its cycle. For most of 2026 that model made him one of the most consistently bearish major voices — and, for the levels that mattered, largely right: he called the March rally a bull trap and it was rejected exactly where he said. He is also on record with targets that never arrived, from $250k in 2021 to a 46k–54k bottom this year — a zone he effectively retired in September, when he called the bottom in at 90% odds.
Woo ya shigo kasuwanni daga fannin software — bayanan da aka buga sun bayyana shi a matsayin mai shirya kwamfuta da aka haifa a Hong Kong kuma ya girma a New Zealand, wanda ya gina ya kuma sayar da kamfanoni kafin ya koma kasuwanci, kuma ya sayi bitcoin ɗinsa na farko a ƙarshen 2013. Abin da ya sanya masa suna ba ciniki ba ne sai dai ma'auni: a 2017 ya yaɗa ma'aunin NVT, ƙimar hanyar sadarwa a raba da yawan mu'amaloli, wanda aka gabatar a matsayin “Bitcoin's P/E ratio”. Ya zama kayan aikin ƙima na on-chain na farko da aka yi amfani da shi sosai, kuma ɗakin karatun ginshiƙai na Woobull da ya girma a kusa da shi har yanzu shi ne ma'aunin da ake dogaro da shi. A yau yana buga Bitcoin Vector Lite mako-mako a Substack — “views into BTC's underlying structure through the lens of investor flows” — tare da matakin biya a bayansa.
The record cuts both ways and the misses are large. On 29 April 2021 he told SALT Talks that Bitcoin “could reach $250K to $300K by the end of that cycle”, later stretching it to $300K–$400K on institutional inflows; Bitcoin topped near $69,000 that November. In September 2025, with BTC just off a $124,457 record, he suggested it “could race up to $140,000–$160,000” — while adding he couldn't tell. It never did. And on 11 January 2026 he posted “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026”: the bearish half aged well, the bullish half did not — Bitcoin fell from $89,212 on 29 January to $67,017 by 1 March, −25% straight through the window he was bullish on. That January post sits just outside the chart below; the seven calls that follow are all inside it.
Sources: x.com/willywoo (verified via X syndication) · woobull.com · willywoo.substack.com · Bitcoin.com News · Yahoo Finance
Kwarara da farko, farashi na biyu. Ma'aunin nazarin Woo shi ne jari, ba kyandir ba: nawa kuɗi na gaske ke shiga ko fita daga Bitcoin da yadda hakan ke kwatantuwa da ƙarfin farashin da ya kamata ya goyi bayansa. Kayan aikin da suke maimaituwa su ne farashin sayan on-chain — farashin masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci (matsayin daidaito na masu saye a kwanaki 155 da suka wuce), farashin da aka gane, da ƙasan CVDD — tare da samfuransa na kwararar masu zuba jari da kallo kan haɗarin kasuwanni daban-daban (canjin farashin hannun jari, ruwan kuɗi na macro). Wannan yana ba shi tsari da haƙuri: zai iya cewa “Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation” kuma yana nufin haka. Raunin kuma daidai yake. Samfuran kwarara suna da kyau wajen gane yanayin kasuwa (faɗuwa ko hauhawa) amma ba su da kyau wajen girman motsi — hasashensa na hanya sun dore fiye da ainihin lambobin da ke tare da su.
Bearish on 2026 from January through the summer — his flow models had liquidity waning against price since January 2025. September is where that changed. On 6 September 2026 he flagged Bitcoin decoupling from equities as it did in 2015, and on 16 September he put the probability that the bottom is in at 90%, calling the market an early bull structure on returning long-term investor liquidity. His longer view is unchanged: Bitcoin in seven figures, but over a 12–16 year horizon.
Seven dated 2026 posts, charted against real price from the day he said them. Every quote below was pulled from X's own syndication endpoint or from the dated article that carries it — nothing is paraphrased. Woo trades in regimes and levels rather than one-line targets, so each card scores the specific claim he made: did the rejection happen where he said, did the level break, did the bottom print in the zone. He was right on the shape of the market in Feb–April and wrong on how deep it would go; the two newest cards, from September, are the first in this window pointing up — ending with his call that the bottom is in.
“This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.”
A three-part call, and all three parts happened. His 27 February post has since rolled out of our 210-day price window, so the chart now anchors at the first covered close, $65,824 on 2 March, and the percentages here run from there. Bitcoin consolidated sideways for roughly a month, rebounded into the mid-70s — $74,679 on 17 March, +13.5% — and was rejected there, back to $65,947 (+0.2%) by 30 March. It later fell as far as $58,566 (−11.0%), then ran +31.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+28.2%). The typo in “repreive” is his; we quote posts as written.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 27 February 2026↗ x.com“BTC sold off WAY TOO FAST in this early bear market and current conditions are setting up to test mid-80s which is the cost basis of short term investors.”
Resolved — on his terms, but late. The framing was right: he said the rally was a bull trap and “NOT me saying the bottom is in”, and from $67,340 BTC rallied, rolled over and cut to $58,566 (−13.0%) on 1 July. The target took far longer than the setup implied. The May rally stalled at $82,018 (+21.8%), and the mid-80s short-term-holder cost basis he named was only tested on 22 September, at $86,597 (+28.6%) — six and a half months after the post, with a deeper low in between. Both halves have now happened, so we move this card from open to played out; price holds $84,359 (+25.3%).
Source‘Bull Trap Forming’ — Willy Woo Says Bottom Not In for Bitcoin (Bitcoin.com News, 9 Mar 2026)↗ news.bitcoin.com“I’d agree with this picture with the rejection at STH price which is 84k and dropping each day. Still weeks more in this mid bear consolidation.”
He named the level and the duration. BTC was $71,304; it was rejected immediately, down to $65,947 (−7.5%) in four days, and the “mid bear consolidation” ran for months rather than weeks. Through that whole stretch it never reached the 84k short-term-holder line he flagged as the ceiling — the summer high was $82,018 (+15.0%) on 11 May — before sliding to $58,566 (−17.9%) on 1 July. Bitcoin only closed above 84k on 22 September, six months later; it ran +21.4% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+18.3%). The call was about the spring, and on that horizon the level held.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 26 March 2026↗ x.com“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait.”
His most specific number, and the one that has gone wrong. From $65,947 he was pointing 18–30% lower, with the CVDD floor model at 45.5k. Bitcoin never got there. The deepest close since is $58,566 on 1 July, −11.2% from his post and 8.5% above the top of his zone — and price has since run +31.3% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+27.9%). A fresh leg down could still validate it, but on 16 September Woo himself put 90% odds on the bottom already being in (last card below), which leaves this zone with few defenders.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 30 March 2026↗ x.com“The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k). I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.”
A conditional call, and the condition failed the way he warned it might. BTC was $77,367. It did break 79k — the 30% branch — peaking at $82,018 (+6.0%) on 11 May. But he had added that a structural bottom only becomes likely “if BTC manages to hold this price level above $65K and not break down”, and that “the next 3-6 weeks will be telling”. It broke down: nine weeks later Bitcoin closed at $58,566, −24.3%. No structural bottom in that window, exactly as he framed it. Price has since run +11.9% to $86,597 and holds $84,359 (+9.0%).
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 28 April 2026↗ x.com“It's almost been a decade since the last time this happened... The last time BTC decoupled from stocks to this degree was 2015 (prelude to the 2017 bull market).”
The first constructive post of the whole window. BTC closed at $79,822, near the top of the range it broke into in late August — up from $69,291 on 20 August. Read the claim precisely: it is not a price target but a regime analogue, equities and Bitcoin pulling apart the way they did in 2015, which he labels the prelude to the 2017 bull market. Price dipped to $75,590 (−5.3%) on 16 September, then ran +8.5% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+5.7%). That leans his way, but three weeks cannot settle a claim about a multi-year decoupling. It also sits awkwardly beside his own 46k–54k bottom call above, and we will not reconcile the two for him. Open until price picks a side for longer.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 6 September 2026↗ x.com“I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long term investor liquidity returning.”
The turn, stated as a number. BTC closed at $75,590 that day, then ran +14.6% to $86,597 on 22 September and holds $84,359 (+11.6%). Read the claim precisely: it is not that $75k was the low, but that the cycle bottom is already behind the market — on this chart that is $58,566 on 1 July, 8.5% above the top of the 46k–54k zone he pointed to in March, which this post quietly retires. He gave no time frame and no invalidation level. As of 27 September price agrees with him; a close back under the July low would settle it against him. Open.
𝕏 Post@willywoo on X — 16 September 2026↗ x.comSakamakon shi ne yadda muka karanta abin da ya faɗa idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashin CoinGecko, ba ƙididdigar kansa ba. Farashin rufewa ne; “ƙasan bayan” shi ne mafi ƙasƙancin rufewa tsakanin ranar magana da yau. Alamun buɗe za su iya sauyawa yayin da zagayen ke warwarewa — hasashen yankin ƙasa ba ya zama kuskure gaba ɗaya sai zagayen ya ƙare gaba ɗaya.
Woo yana sayar da bincike, ba sigina ko tokens ba — tsari mai tsafta fiye da yawancin masu wannan jerin. Duk da haka yana ƙirƙirar dalili da ya kamata a ambata: wasiƙar biya kan gano ƙasan zagaye ta fi daraja muddin ƙasan yana gaba.
Bitcoin Vector Lite a Substack kyauta ne tare da matakin biya; samfuran kwarara masu zurfi suna bayansa. Biyan kuɗi shi ne kasuwancin da ake gani.
woobull.com da ma'aunin NVT sun kasance kyauta shekaru da yawa — suna aiki a matsayin farkon hanya kuma a matsayin dalilin da ya sa ake nakalto shi ko kaɗan.
Wannan ita ce bayyanawar da ta fi muhimmanci. A Mayun 2023 Syz Group ta sanar da SyzCrest Digital Uncorrelated, asusun hedge na crypto da banki ke goyon baya wanda aka ƙaddamar tare da Woo da CMCC Global, tana bayyana shi a matsayin managing partner na CMCC Global & Crest Fund, mai ba da shawara ga asusun Ama da general partner a S2F Fund; bayanan da aka buga sun kuma lissafa zuba jari na matakin farko a kamfanonin crypto. Waɗannan matsayin sun fito ne daga jaridun 2023 kuma ba mu tabbatar da waɗanne ne har yanzu suke aiki ba. Ba a bayyana matsayin riƙo saƙo-da-saƙo, don haka ka ɗauki kowane takamaiman hasashe a matsayin mai yiwuwa yana daidai da fayil ɗin da ba ka gani.
“BTC MOVES TO A 6-8 YEAR CYCLE? BTC has been locked into the gravity of a 4 year orbit... it was subject to strong internal forces of its halvening... a clockwork 4yr supply rate shock. Meanwhile TradFi is on a 6-8 year short term debt cycle.”
03 Sep 2026 · duk tsarinsa a saƙo ɗaya“3 things happen at the end of bear markets. 1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles). 2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price 3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)”
05 Apr 2026 · dogon lokaci a ƙarƙashin shekarar faɗuwa“I could see a future where BTC trades sideways for 8-12 yrs remaining 5-6 figures, then 12-16 yrs out a god candle to multiple 7 figures.”
05 Apr 2026 · rabi daidai — rabin hauhawa ya kuskure da 25%“I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.”
11 Jan 2026 · half right — the bullish half missed by 25%Karin magana daga bidiyoyin sa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Woo yana bugawa a rubuce, ba a gaban kyamara ba — ginshiƙan Woobull da wasiƙar mako-mako Bitcoin Vector Lite. Tarihinsa na bidiyo shi ne podcasts na wasu mutane. Bayyanuwa masu wakilci:
Bitcoin Needs To Adapt Now | With Willy WooLook Into Bitcoin — an yi rikodin kwanaki bayan hasashen ƙasa na 46k–54k da ke sama.10 Apr 2026
The Bull Market, Institutional Adoption & 2026 Recession? | Willy WooWhat Bitcoin Did — inda ya fara gabatar da 2026 a matsayin gwajin gaskiya na zagayen.26 Aug 2025
Trader legend Willy Woo: A 80% Bitcoin drawdown again is possibleLess Noise More Signal — yanayin faɗuwa, watanni shida kafin ya buƙace shi.25 Sep 2025
Bitcoin Whales Dumping As Liquidity Crisis Hits | Willy Woo Reveals The EndgameThe Wolf Of All Streets — tare da Scott Melker, wanda fayil ɗinsa ma yana cikin wannan jerin.14 Sep 2025Manazarcin on-chain na Bitcoin, wanda aka fi sani da yaɗa ma'aunin NVT — ƙimar hanyar sadarwa a raba da yawan mu'amaloli, wanda aka gabatar a matsayin “Bitcoin's P/E ratio” — da kuma ɗakin karatun ginshiƙai na Woobull. Yana rubuta wasiƙar mako-mako Bitcoin Vector Lite a Substack kuma yana da kusan mabiya 1.1M a X, inda yake wallafawa yanzu a matsayin @willywoo (a dā @woonomic).
For most of 2026 he was bearish: his on-chain models pointed to a bottom between $46,000 and $54,000, with the CVDD floor near $45,500 when he said it in March. That zone has not printed — Bitcoin's lowest close since was $58,566 on 1 July. On 16 September 2026 he reversed, putting the probability that the bottom is in at 90% and calling the market an early bull structure. Separately, he has floated a much longer-horizon view of Bitcoin trading sideways for 8–12 years before a move to seven figures.
Cakuɗe, kuma tsarin daidai yake: mai ƙarfi kan hanya, mai rauni kan girma. A wannan taga hasashensa na ƙin a Fabrairu da matakinsa na gaba a Maris duk sun tabbata daidai, kuma karatunsa na Afrilu cewa abubuwan da ake buƙata don ƙasa ba su cika ba an tabbatar da shi da faɗuwar 24%. Amma yankin ƙasa nasa na $46k–$54k bai taɓa zuwa ba, manufarsa ta 2021 ta $250k–$300k ta kuskure kusan sau huɗu, kuma saƙonsa na Janairun 2026 — “I'm bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026” — ya jefa rabin hauhawa kai tsaye cikin faɗuwar 25%.
Ma'aunin Woo da aka fi sani: ƙimar hanyar sadarwa ta Bitcoin (market cap) a raba da ƙimar dala da aka aika a kan sarkar. Karatu mai girma yana nuna cewa farashi ya gaba da amfanin tattalin arzikin hanyar sadarwa; karatu mai ƙanƙanta yana nuna akasin haka. Ya gabatar da shi a matsayin madaidaicin on-chain na ma'aunin farashi-zuwa-riba na hannun jari, kuma ya buɗe ƙofa ga duk fannin nazarin on-chain.
Woo yana watsi da kyandir kuma yana bin kuɗi — kwarara, farashin saye, da haƙurin zama watanni ba tare da motsi ba. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu gano wanne ne ke biya da gaske. Gwada ƙwarewarka a kan bayanan kasuwa kai tsaye — ba tare da haɗarin jari ba — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyautuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayanai da ilimi wanda ya dogara kacokan kan kayan da jama'a za su iya samu — saƙonninsa masu kwanan wata a X (an ɗauko su kalma-da-kalma daga madogarar rarrabawa ta X ta jama'a) da rahotannin ɓangare na uku masu kwanan wata, waɗanda aka haɗa a kowace magana. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko zuba jari ba ce. Lambobin kusan-kusan ne kuma suna canjawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Willy? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 27 September 2026
