@WClemente
Ba'amurke mai nazarin Bitcoin wanda ya shahara da bayanan on-chain, kuma yanzu yana cinikin hannun jari, man fetur da ƙarafa. A cikin wannan samfurin ya saya kusa da mafi ƙarancin farashi, ya kuma sayar da wani ɓangare kusa da mafi girman farashi: a ranar 10 ga Agusta, a kan $64,856, ya yi sayen Bitcoin na farko “in a long time”, sai Bitcoin ya tashi zuwa $86,597 a ranar 22 ga Satumba. A ranar 28 ga Satumba, a kan $84,449, ya rage abin da yake riƙe da shi. Hasashensa na hauhawa da suka biyo baya a buɗe suke, kuma Bitcoin ya yi ƙasa da inda yake lokacin da ya yi su.
A taƙaice. Will Clemente yana wallafa wa mabiya kimanin 793,000 a X. A kan hasashe takwas na Bitcoin masu kwanan wata daga Yuli zuwa Oktoba 2026, sakamakon shi ne 4 sun tabbata, 4 a buɗe, 0 ya saɓa. A watan Yuli ya ce kasuwar faɗuwa ta kusa ƙarewa, ya saya a watan Agusta, ya kuma rage a ƙarshen Satumba. Hasashensa cewa alkiblar kasuwa ta koma hauhawa, da kuma cewa an riga an kai mafi ƙarancin farashin wannan zagaye, a buɗe suke. A ranar 29 ga Oktoba ya rubuta cewa “trend is shot for now”, kuma tun daga lokacin Bitcoin ya yi ƙasa da 9.3%.
Will Clemente, wanda ake kuma rubuta sunansa William Clemente III, yana wallafawa a X tun watan Yuni 2020. Sunan asusunsa a da @WClementeIII ne, yanzu kuma @WClemente ne. Cointelegraph Magazine ta rubuta labarin rayuwarsa a watan Mayu 2023, lokacin yana da shekara 21. Ta ruwaito cewa ya bar karatunsa a watan Agusta 2021 don ya yi aiki a fannin crypto, kuma shi da Anthony Pompliano sun ƙaddamar da Reflexivity Research a watan Satumba 2021. A watan Janairu 2024 DeFi Technologies ta sanar da yarjejeniyar sayen Reflexivity Research. Bayanin kansa a X yanzu yana cewa “market enjoyer & student of life.”
Yadda aka gina samfurin: jerin saƙonnin shafinsa na X ya dawo da saƙonni 238 nasa na kansa daga 16 ga Afrilu zuwa 10 ga Nuwamba 2026, kuma 84 daga cikinsu sun ambaci Bitcoin. Muna zana kowane saƙo da ke ɗauke da iƙirarin da za a iya tantancewa game da inda Bitcoin zai dosa, ko wanda ke bayyana cewa ya saya ko ya sayar, sau ɗaya kawai, a saƙon farko bayyananne. Ba a zana maimaitawa su kaɗai: saƙonsa na 23 ga Satumba wanda ya ɗaga yiwuwar cewa an kai mafi ƙarancin farashin zagaye zuwa 87% yana ƙarƙashin katin 8 ga Satumba, saƙonsa na 23 ga Oktoba cewa ya sake ragewa kuma yana ƙarƙashin katin 28 ga Satumba. Ba a zana saƙonnin da ke bayyana bayanai kawai, kamar yawan kuɗin da masu riƙewa ke da shi ko open interest. Ba mu sami wani hasashe na ETH a cikin samfurin ba.
Dalilansa suna cikin wata doguwar maƙala da ya wallafa a X a ranar 8 ga Agusta 2026, “Exploring the outlook for Bitcoin”. A cikinta ya rubuta: “In Jan of this year I reduced the Bitcoin exposure that I still personally had left”. Ya kuma rubuta “You are very unlikely to buy the exact bottom.” da “I am open to a final leg down at some point throughout the year”. Bayan kwana biyu ya wallafa cewa ya saya.
Hasashen da suka gabata, kafin lokacin da bayanan farashinmu suka fara. A watan Mayu 2023, lokacin da Bitcoin yake kusa da $27,599, ya gaya wa Cointelegraph Magazine cewa “market has bottomed on a multi-year view.” Mujallar ta rubuta cewa yana tsammanin farashi mai lambobi shida tsakanin rubu'i na huɗu na 2024 da rubu'i na farko na 2025. Bayananmu na kullum sun fara nuna Bitcoin sama da $100,000 a ranar 8 ga Disamba 2024, don haka wannan hasashen ya tabbata. A ranar 25 ga Janairu 2026, a kan kimanin $86,670, ya rubuta cewa “it's hard not to see the the resemblance to Q1 2022.” Daga nan Bitcoin ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 a ranar 1 ga Yuli.
Majiyoyi: x.com/WClemente · cointelegraph.com/magazine · crowdfundinsider.com
Bayanan on-chain da yanayin matsayin 'yan kasuwa. Clemente yana nazarin abin da masu riƙe na dogon lokaci da masu riƙe na gajeren lokaci suke yi, inda kuɗaɗen suka motsa a ƙarshe, da kuma yadda kasuwannin futures da options suka cika. Yana ƙara matsakaitan farashi masu motsi na mako-mako da ra'ayoyin tattalin arziki game da bashi da kuɗin ruwa. Ya fi bayar da yiwuwa fiye da farashin da ake hari, kuma yana faɗa idan ya saya, ya ƙara ko ya rage Bitcoin ɗinsa.
Yana da kyakkyawan fata na dogon lokaci, amma yana taka-tsantsan a yanzu. A ranar 19 ga Oktoba ya rubuta cewa Bitcoin “shoots to 100k+” cikin watanni 12 zuwa 24. A ranar 23 ga Oktoba ya sake rage Bitcoin ɗinsa, kuma a ranar 29 ga Oktoba ya rubuta cewa “trend is shot for now until proven otherwise”, tare da cewa da wuya a ga sabon mafi ƙarancin farashi.
Hasashe takwas na Bitcoin masu kwanan wata daga saƙonnin Will Clemente (@WClemente) na kansa a X, an zana su a kan ainihin farashi. Jimillar ita ce 4 sun tabbata, 4 a buɗe, 0 ya saɓa.
“Not trying to be big bear, base case is that BTC kinda chops till EOY, with new HTF lows being unlikely. Just trying to make the point that trend is shot for now until proven otherwise.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 11 Nuw 2026 neYa faɗa a kan $81,274, a cikin wata amsa a ƙarƙashin saƙonsa na kansa game da jadawalin. EOY na nufin ƙarshen shekara, HTF lows kuma su ne mafi ƙarancin farashi a jadawalin dogon lokaci. Farashin washegari shi ne $77,839 (−4.2%), kuma Bitcoin yana kan $73,707 (−9.3%). Har yanzu yana sama sosai da mafi ƙarancin farashin $58,566 na 1 ga Yuli. A buɗe: hasashen yana gudana har zuwa ƙarshen shekara, kuma zai gaza idan Bitcoin ya kafa sabon mafi ƙarancin farashi.
Rubutu a 𝕏“base case is that BTC kinda chops till EOY, with new HTF lows being unlikely” — Will Clemente (@WClemente) on X↗ x.com“Next 12-24 months(?): AI unwind triggers some form of Fed backstop -> BTC shoots to 100k+”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 11 Nuw 2026 neYa faɗa a kan $82,020, a matsayin matakan farko na wani dogon jerin abubuwan da za su faru wanda ya sanya wa alamar tambaya. Bitcoin ya tashi zuwa $84,082 (+2.5%) a ranar 22 ga Oktoba. Yana kan $73,707 (−10.1%). Kwana huɗu bayan saƙon ya rubuta cewa ya rage Bitcoin ɗinsa. A buɗe: wa'adin da ya bayar yana tafiya har zuwa Oktoba 2027 a mafi kusa.
Rubutu a 𝕏“AI unwind triggers some form of Fed backstop -> BTC shoots to 100k+” — Will Clemente (@WClemente) on X↗ x.com“Trimmed some exposure this morning, going through and seeing some signs of froth in things like altcoin OI relative to BTC OI.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 11 Nuw 2026 neYa faɗa a kan $84,449, kwana shida bayan farashin rufewa na $86,597 na 22 ga Satumba, wanda shi ne mafi girma daga Afrilu zuwa Nuwamba 2026. A cikin wannan saƙon ya rubuta cewa yana ci gaba da riƙe “sizable % core BTC posn to hold from 60s”. Bayan saƙon, Bitcoin bai rufe sama da $86,490 (+2.4%) na ranar 5 ga Oktoba ba. Yana kan $73,707 (−12.7%). Ya tabbata: ya sayar da wani ɓangare kusa da mafi girman farashi.
Rubutu a 𝕏“Trimmed some exposure this morning” — Will Clemente (@WClemente) on X↗ x.com“Current move is well out of danger zone, but not yet all clear. ~70-75% odds that we have cycle bottomed based on this.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 11 Nuw 2026 neYa faɗa a kan $79,093, bisa binciken da ya yi da kansa a kan tashin farashi na kasuwannin faɗuwa da suka gabata. A ranar 23 ga Satumba ya ɗaga adadin, ya rubuta “~87% probability that cycle low is in based on this”. Bitcoin ya tashi zuwa $86,597 (+9.5%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba. Yana kan $73,707 (−6.8%). Mafi ƙarancin farashin wannan zagaye zuwa yanzu shi ne $58,566, a ranar 1 ga Yuli, kuma Bitcoin bai koma can ba. A buɗe: hasashen zai gaza idan Bitcoin ya rufe ƙasa da wannan farashin.
Rubutu a 𝕏“~70-75% odds that we have cycle bottomed based on this.” — Will Clemente (@WClemente) on X↗ x.com“For multi-month views, seems like a pretty clear trend shift from bearish to bullish at this point.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 11 Nuw 2026 neYa faɗa a kan $78,511, bayan Bitcoin ya haura sama da matsakaicin farashin da masu riƙewa na ƙasa da watanni biyar suka biya. Bitcoin ya tashi zuwa $86,597 (+10.3%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba. Yana kan $73,707 (−6.1%). A ranar 29 ga Oktoba ya rubuta cewa “trend is shot for now until proven otherwise”. A buɗe, amma zuwa yanzu Bitcoin ya tafi akasin haka, kuma shi da kansa ya faɗi hakan.
Rubutu a 𝕏“seems like a pretty clear trend shift from bearish to bullish at this point” — Will Clemente (@WClemente) on X↗ x.com“It is possible we reject again here, but if we hold this push over 65k on the treasury headline, suspect that chasing market participants could move price much higher in short order.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 11 Nuw 2026 neYa faɗa a kan $64,686. Ya wallafa da ƙarfe 15:11 UTC, bayan Bitcoin ya haura sama da 65k a wannan rana, kuma farashin washegari shi ne $69,291. Bitcoin ya tsaya sama da 65k, ya kai $78,318 (+21.1%; +13.0% daga farashin washegari) a ranar 22 ga Agusta, kwana uku bayan saƙon. Ya tashi zuwa $86,597 (+33.9%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba. Yana kan $73,707 (+13.9%). Ya tabbata.
Rubutu a 𝕏“if we hold this push over 65k on the treasury headline, suspect that chasing market participants could move price much higher in short order” — Will Clemente (@WClemente) on X↗ x.com“Just made my first spot Bitcoin purchases (via ETFs) in a long time. Wrote about why here.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 11 Nuw 2026 neYa faɗa a kan $64,856, tare da hanyar haɗi zuwa maƙalarsa ta 8 ga Agusta. Mafi ƙarancin farashin rufewa na Bitcoin bayan haka shi ne $62,844 (−3.1%) a ranar 17 ga Agusta. A wannan ranar ya rubuta “I just keep tapping away at spot.” Sannan Bitcoin ya tashi zuwa $86,597 (+33.5%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba. Yana kan $73,707 (+13.6%). Ya tabbata: ɗan gajeren saukowa, sannan babban tashi.
Rubutu a 𝕏“Just made my first spot Bitcoin purchases (via ETFs) in a long time.” — Will Clemente (@WClemente) on X↗ x.com“bitcoin is much closer to the end of its bear market than the beginning.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 11 Nuw 2026 neYa faɗa a kan $64,984, mako biyu bayan farashin rufewa na $58,566 na 1 ga Yuli, wanda shi ne mafi ƙaranci daga Afrilu zuwa Nuwamba 2026. Bai saya ba sai ranar 10 ga Agusta. Mafi ƙarancin farashin rufewa na Bitcoin bayan saƙon shi ne $62,773 (−3.4%) a ranar 2 ga Agusta. Sannan ya tashi zuwa $86,597 (+33.3%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba. Yana kan $73,707 (+13.4%). Ya tabbata zuwa yanzu: babu sabon mafi ƙarancin farashi da ya zo a cikin watanni huɗu tun daga lokacin.
Rubutu a 𝕏“bitcoin is much closer to the end of its bear market than the beginning.” — Will Clemente (@WClemente) on X↗ x.comSakamakon shi ne fahimtarmu ta abin da ya faɗa idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashi, ba makin da ya ba kansa ba. Zaɓi: daga saƙonni 238 nasa na kansa tsakanin 16 ga Afrilu da 10 ga Nuwamba 2026, muna zana kowane saƙo da ke ɗauke da iƙirarin da za a iya tantancewa game da inda Bitcoin zai dosa, ko wanda ke bayyana cewa ya saya ko ya sayar, sau ɗaya kawai, a saƙon farko bayyananne. Bayanan farashinmu na kullum ne, don haka farashin kowane hasashe shi ne farashin ranar da aka wallafa saƙon, kuma ba a ganin motsin da ke faruwa a cikin rana ɗaya. Saƙon 19 ga Agusta ya zo ne bayan Bitcoin ya riga ya haura sama da 65k a wannan rana, don haka wannan katin yana kuma nuna farashin washegari. Layin $1,000 da ke kan kowane kati yana ɗaukar cewa an saya ne, har ma ga hasashen 28 ga Satumba, lokacin da ya sayar da wani ɓangare, da hasashen 29 ga Oktoba, wanda na taka-tsantsan ne.
Clemente ya haɗa hannu wajen kafa kamfanin bincike, ya yi aikin nazarin zuba jari, kuma yana ciniki da kuɗinsa. Ga abin da muka gano.
Ya kafa Reflexivity Research tare da Anthony Pompliano. A watan Janairu 2024 DeFi Technologies ta sanar da wasiƙar niyya mai ɗaurewa ta sayen kamfanin, wadda za a biya da hannun jarin DeFi Technologies. Ba mu iya tantance irin rawar da yake takawa a can yanzu ba.
A cikin maƙalarsa ta 8 ga Agusta 2026 ya rubuta game da “my employment helping with investment analysis at STIX in recent months”, inda ya duba sababbin kamfanonin fasahar quantum computing.
Yana riƙe da Bitcoin, wanda ya saya tun daga 10 ga Agusta 2026 ta hanyar ETFs, kuma ya rage shi a ranar 28 ga Satumba, ya sake ragewa a ranar 23 ga Oktoba. A ranar 28 ga Agusta ya rubuta cewa ya “picked up some ZEC under $800”, a ranar 11 ga Satumba kuma cewa ya sayar da mafi yawansa “for ~50% gain”. Ya yi cinikin man fetur a watan Oktoba, kuma ya rubuta a ranar 2 ga Nuwamba cewa yana “Off screens to reset & flat”.
Ba mu sami wata ƙungiya ta biyan kuɗi, kwas ko hanyar haɗin gabatarwa a cikin saƙonnin da muka karanta ba. Bayanin kansa a X yana cewa “not investment advice, personal opinions which change, etc.”
“bitcoin is much closer to the end of its bear market than the beginning.”
15 Yul 2026 · ya tabbata“Just made my first spot Bitcoin purchases (via ETFs) in a long time.”
10 Agu 2026 · ya tabbata“~70-75% odds that we have cycle bottomed based on this.”
8 Sat 2026 · a buɗe“Trimmed some exposure this morning”
28 Sat 2026 · ya tabbataAn kawo maganganun kalma da kalma, a harshensu na asali, daga majiyoyin jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da aka faɗa, ba shawara ba.
Ra'ayoyin Clemente game da kasuwa galibi suna cikin saƙonninsa na X da kuma dogayen maƙalolin da yake wallafawa a X.
Ba'amurke ne mai nazarin Bitcoin wanda ke wallafawa a X da sunan @WClemente, a da @WClementeIII, yana da mabiya kimanin 793,000. Ya shahara da nazarin on-chain, kuma ya kafa Reflexivity Research tare da Anthony Pompliano.
A ranar 19 ga Oktoba 2026 ya rubuta cewa Bitcoin “shoots to 100k+” cikin watanni 12 zuwa 24, tare da alamar tambaya a kan lokacin. A ranar 29 ga Oktoba ya rubuta cewa abin da ya fi tsammani shi ne Bitcoin “kinda chops till EOY”, kuma da wuya a ga sabon mafi ƙarancin farashi. Yana bayar da yiwuwar cewa an kai mafi ƙarancin farashin zagaye, kuma a ranar 23 ga Satumba ya sanya ta a 87%.
A samfurinmu na hasashe takwas na Bitcoin masu kwanan wata daga Yuli zuwa Oktoba 2026: huɗu sun tabbata, huɗu a buɗe suke, kuma babu wanda ya saɓa. Ya saya a watan Agusta kusa da mafi ƙarancin farashi, ya kuma rage a watan Satumba kusa da mafi girman farashi. Hasashensa cewa alkiblar kasuwa ta koma hauhawa, da kuma cewa an kai mafi ƙarancin farashin zagaye, a buɗe suke, yayin da Bitcoin ya yi ƙasa tun daga lokacin.
Yana cikin waɗanda suka kafa Reflexivity Research, wanda DeFi Technologies ta sanar a 2024 cewa za ta saya, kuma ya rubuta a watan Agusta 2026 cewa yana aikin taimakawa wajen nazarin zuba jari a STIX. Haka kuma yana ciniki da kuɗinsa a Bitcoin, hannun jari da kayayyakin masarufi. Ba mu sami wata ƙungiya ta biyan kuɗi ko kwas a cikin saƙonnin da muka karanta ba.
Ba a san ta a bainar jama'a ba, kuma babu wani adadi abin dogaro. Ka yi watsi da duk wani takamaiman adadi da ka gani an danganta shi da sunan.
Clemente yana jira sai bayanai sun nuna cewa masu sayarwa sun gama, yana saya a hankali mataki-mataki, kuma yana ragewa idan kasuwa ta yi kama da ta cika maƙil. Yaya kusancin hangenka da nasa? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka gwada hanyarka. Gwada ƙwarewarka kan bayanan kasuwa kai tsaye ba tare da haɗarin jari ba a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari ne na bayani da ilmantarwa wanda ya dogara kacokan a kan kayan da ke bainar jama'a: saƙonnin @WClemente na bainar jama'a a X da kuma tushen da aka haɗa a kowane hasashe. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko ta zuba jari ba ce. Alƙaluman kimantawa ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Kun ga kuskure, ko kuwa ku ne Will? Aika gyara →
An tabbatar da asusun · An lissafa majiyoyi a sama · Hanyar tantancewa · An sabunta 11 Nuwamba 2026
