@nsquaredvalue
Manajan asusu a Houston wanda ke kallon Bitcoin a matsayin network. Ya rubuta “Metcalfe's Law as a Model for Bitcoin's Value”, kuma shafinsa na X yana mayar da tarihin farashi zuwa yiwuwa: kewayon da ake tsammani, kololuwar lokaci-lokaci, maƙasudai tare da kwanan wata. Wannan shafi yana duba waɗannan lambobi da ainihin farashi.
A taƙaice. Timothy Peterson is a CFA and CAIA charterholder and the founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors (about 33K followers on X). He is best known for the paper “Metcalfe's Law as a Model for Bitcoin's Value”, and he now sells The Bitcoin Investment Handbook and yearly outlook reports. On this page: eight dated calls on Bitcoin and Ethereum from June to October 2026. One played out, four are still open, and three went against.
Shafin Peterson na kansa ya ce shi ne ya kafa Cane Island Alternative Advisors kuma a da shi ne CFO na wani kamfanin kuɗi a Houston, inda ya haɗa kai wajen gudanar da dabarun hannun jari mai kariyar option. Ya rubuta littafin “Performance Measurement for Alternative Investments” (Risk Books, 2015), yana aiki a matsayin Chapter Executive na reshen CAIA na Houston, kuma yana da Master of Science a Finance da BA a Economics daga University of Colorado.
Aikinsa da aka fi sani shi ne takardar “Metcalfe's Law as a Model for Bitcoin's Value”, wadda ke auna ƙimar Bitcoin daga girman network ɗin masu amfani da shi. Bayanin X ɗinsa ya ce “Bitcoin Pathfinder | Network Economist | CFA, CAIA” kuma ya ambaci wannan takarda da sabon littafinsa, The Bitcoin Investment Handbook.
Yawancin rubuce-rubuce ƙididdiga ne: yadda Bitcoin ya kasance bayan faɗuwa makamanciya, a mako ɗaya na shekarun baya, ko a nisa ɗaya daga matsakaicinsa na 200-day. Kiraye-kirayen da ke wannan shafi su ne rubuce-rubucen da ke mayar da waɗannan ƙididdiga zuwa kewayo, maƙasudi ko alkibla ga BTC ko ETH. Da yawa daga cikinsu suna ƙarewa da tallar BluRoo.ai, kayan aikin bincike da yake ginawa.
Sources: x.com/nsquaredvalue · cane-island.digital (about, handbook)
Tarihi a matsayin yiwuwa. Peterson yana duba abin da Bitcoin ya yi a lokutan baya da suka yi kama da yau — irin faɗuwar, irin ranar kalanda, irin yanayin — sannan ya wallafa yiwuwar, kewayon da ake tsammani ko maƙasudi. Kewayon suna da faɗi kuma na dogon lokaci; kiraye-kirayen lokaci-lokaci na ɗan gajeren lokaci ne inda ya fi bayyana kuskure.
Bullish on the long view, less so on the next few months. On 8 Oct 2026 he expected a new all-time high within 90 days; on 15 Oct he wrote that “a new ATH in 90 days may not happen.”
Eight dated calls from Peterson's own posts on X, charted against real CoinGecko price. Each quote is copied from the post as published and was re-fetched live. Posts that only list historical statistics are not charted; we took the ones that name a range, a target or a direction for BTC or ETH.
“I believe Bitcoin will make a new ATH within 90 days, and here's why.”
He based it on history: when Bitcoin climbed from −50% below its all-time high back to −30%, it made a new high within 75 days: “Every time.” BTC was $83,282 on our chart; the post went up at 17:28 UTC, and the next daily point was $81,686. The best close since is $83,691 (+0.5%) on 12 Oct, and BTC is $81,512 now (−2.1%). A week later, on 15 Oct, he wrote that “a new ATH in 90 days may not happen” because the call “was predicated on Bitcoin reaching $88k, or -30% from its ATH,” which it has not done. He withdrew it himself, so we count it as gone against.
𝕏 Post“I believe Bitcoin will make a new ATH within 90 days” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“The magnitude is variable but at current levels, it implies price -> $120-140k.”
He called mempool transaction count the best Bitcoin timing signal he has found, one that “leads going up and it leads going down.” No date was given for the target. BTC was $83,640. It rose to $86,490 (+3.4%) on 5 Oct and is $81,512 now (−2.5%). It would need to rise +47.2% from here to reach $120K. Still open.
𝕏 Post“I have never found a better Bitcoin timing signal than mempool transaction count.” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin -> 150k by January”
The line closes a post showing a design test for his BluRoo.ai tool; the attached chart, “BTC linked analog path, next 180 days”, puts its central path near $150K in January 2027. BTC was $86,183 on our chart. He posted at 21:02 UTC, and the next daily point was $84,382. The best close since is $86,490 (+0.4%) on 5 Oct, and BTC is $81,512 now (−5.4%). It would need to rise +84.0% to reach $150K. The deadline is January. Still open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin -> 150k by January” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“History says that today (Sept 19th) is the peak of the September rally”
Rubutun ya ƙara da cewa Bitcoin “ya rufe ƙasa kashi 90% na lokaci a shekaru shida da suka wuce.” BTC yana $80,874. Bai sake rufewa ƙasa ba: bayan kwana uku ya rufe a $86,597 (+7.1%), kuma yanzu yana $81,512 (+0.8%). Ya saɓa.
𝕏 Post“History says that today (Sept 19th) is the peak” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin: probably higher in the next 30 days”
BTC yana $77,712. Bayan kwana talatin, a ranar 23 Satumba, ya rufe a $86,183 (+10.9%). Mafi ƙarancin rufewa a tsakani shi ne $75,590 (−2.7%) a ranar 16 Satumba, kuma yanzu BTC yana $81,512 (+4.9%). Ya tabbata.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin: probably higher in the next 30 days” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“Ethereum could be going to $1400 or even $1100.”
ETH yana $1,725. Ya sauka zuwa $1,566 (−9.2%) a ranar 26 Yuni, amma bai taɓa rufewa kusa da $1,400 ba. Sannan ya hau zuwa $2,775 (+60.9%) a ranar 22 Satumba kuma yanzu yana $2,426 (+40.6%). Ya saɓa.
𝕏 Post“Ethereum could be going to $1400 or even $1100.” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“If $59k was the bottom, then $118k is a realistic target within a year.”
BTC yana $61,480. An gwada ƙasan $59K: BTC ya rufe a $58,566 (−4.7%) a ranar 1 Yuli, ƙasa da shi kaɗan, sannan ya juya sama. Ya kai $86,597 (+40.9%) a ranar 22 Satumba kuma yanzu yana $81,512 (+32.6%). Maƙasudin $118K yana da lokaci har zuwa Yuni 2027. Har yanzu a buɗe.
𝕏 Post“Even “bad” Bitcoin recoveries are 2x.” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.com“The expected price range for January 2027 is $66k - $107k (middle 50% interquartile).”
BTC yana $63,811, ƙasa da kewayon. Ya ƙara faɗuwa zuwa $58,566 (−8.2%) a ranar 1 Yuli, sannan ya tashi zuwa $86,597 (+35.7%) a ranar 22 Satumba. Yanzu yana $81,512 (+27.7%), a cikin kewayon $66K–$107K. Kiran na Janairu 2027 ne. Har yanzu a buɗe.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is down 50% in 250 days. What happens next?” — @nsquaredvalue on X↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of what each post said, measured against real CoinGecko daily closes — not Peterson's own scoring. Three of the calls run to January 2027 or June 2027, so they stay open until then, and the $120K–$140K call has no date. The “$1,000 in” line under each chart is a buy-and-hold figure from the day of the call, even for the two bearish calls, where the buy-and-hold figure went up.
Peterson yana gudanar da kamfanin shawarwari kuma yana sayar da bincikensa kai tsaye. Rubuce-rubucensa na X suna tallata littafin, rahotannin hasashen shekara-shekara da kayan aikinsa na bincike akai-akai.
Littafi mai shafuka 976 da ake sayarwa ta cane-island.digital a matsayin kwafi masu sa hannu da lamba; shafin ya ce “za a saka shi a Amazon kan $275” kuma yana biyan masu saye “$20 in Bitcoin” kan kowane mutum da suka turo.
Hasashen shekara-shekara (“Bitcoin 2027”, “Bitcoin 2026”) da nazarin “Determinants of Bitcoin's Performance”, ana sayar da su ɗaiɗai ko a haɗe — “kayan binciken Bitcoin masu ƙarfi uku a haɗe kan $279” — tare da biyan kuɗin shiga dandalin bincike na Cane Island.
Da yawa daga cikin rubuce-rubucen da aka zana suna ƙarewa da “bluroo ai”, kayan aikin bincike da yake ginawa; a ranar 23 Satumba 2026 ya rubuta cewa zai mayar da shi “kayan aikin bincike mafi ban mamaki ba tare da kwatanci ko togiya ba.”
Kamfanin da ya kafa; shafin ya bayyana aikinsa a matsayin fahimta da ilimi ga masu ba da shawarar kuɗi da manajojin zuba jari.
“Bitcoin: probably higher in the next 30 days”
24 Aug 2026 · BTC ya tashi 10.9% a cikin waɗannan kwana 30“Ethereum could be going to $1400 or even $1100.”
23 Jun 2026 · ETH ya kai ƙasa a $1,566 kuma ya tashi 60.9%“History says that today (Sept 19th) is the peak of the September rally”
19 Sep 2026 · BTC ya tashi 7.1% cikin kwana ukuAn kwafo maganganun daga majiyoyinsa na jama'a; ra'ayoyinsa ne, ba shawarwari ba.
Babu ɗakin bidiyo da za a haɗa a nan. Kiraye-kirayen Peterson na jama'a rubuce-rubuce ne a X, kuma kowane kira da aka zana yana da mahaɗi zuwa rubutun kansa.
Mai takardar shaidar CFA da CAIA daga yankin Houston wanda ya kafa Cane Island Alternative Advisors. Ya rubuta takardar “Metcalfe's Law as a Model for Bitcoin's Value” da The Bitcoin Investment Handbook, kuma yana wallafa a X da sunan @nsquaredvalue.
On 5 Jun 2026 he put the expected range for January 2027 at $66K–$107K. On 11 Jun he said that if $59K was the bottom, $118K is a realistic target within a year. On 23 Sep he wrote “Bitcoin -> 150k by January”, and on 30 Sep that mempool activity implies $120K–$140K. On 8 Oct he expected a new all-time high within 90 days, then wrote on 15 Oct that it “may not happen.”
Of eight dated BTC and ETH calls from June to October 2026: one played out (higher in 30 days from 24 Aug), four are still open (the January 2027 range, the $118K target, $150K by January and $120K–$140K), and three went against (ETH to $1,400, the 19 Sep “peak”, and the 8 Oct new-high call he withdrew). Treat it as a documented opinion, not advice.
Ta kamfaninsa, Cane Island Alternative Advisors, da sayar da The Bitcoin Investment Handbook, rahotannin hasashen shekara-shekara da biyan kuɗin shiga bincike. Yana kuma gina kayan aikin bincike, BluRoo.ai, wanda rubuce-rubuce da yawa ke tallatawa.
Peterson yana mayar da tarihin Bitcoin zuwa yiwuwa da kewayo. Yaya kusancin fahimtarka take — auna ta da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka gwada hanyarka. Gwada ƙwarewarka a bayanan kasuwa kai tsaye — ba tare da haɗarin jari ba — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai ainihin kyaututtuka.
Nazari na bayani da ilimi wanda ya dogara kacokan kan kayan da ke a bayyane ga jama'a (rubuce-rubucen X na Timothy Peterson masu kwanan wata da gidan yanar gizonsa, waɗanda aka haɗa a shafin). Ba shawarar kuɗi ko ta zuba jari ba ce. Lambobin kimanin ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Timothy? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 17 October 2026
