@RaoulGMI · “The Journey Man”
Tsohon ma'aikacin macro na Goldman Sachs wanda ya yi ritaya a shekara 36 ya gina masarautar kafofin watsa labarai da bincike — muryar da ta fi ƙarfi tana bayyana crypto a matsayin babbar super-cycle na ruwa a tarihi. Mai rarraba daga sama zuwa ƙasa, ba mai ciniki da jadawali ba: yana sayen hujja kuma yana riƙe ta duk da hayaniya.
A taƙaice. Raoul Pal ɗan asalin Birtaniya ne tsohon manajan hedging-fund (Goldman Sachs, GLG) wanda ya koma wallafa macro — wanda ya kafa Global Macro Investor kuma ya haɗa kafa Real Vision. Yana tunani daga sama zuwa ƙasa daga ruwa na duniya: takardun bankin tsakiya, zagayowar kasuwanci da bango mai zuwa na sake biyan bashi wanda, a tsarin sa, ke tilasta lalata kudi da tura kadarori masu ƙarfi da crypto sama (“The Everything Code”), wanda fasahar haɓaka mai ƙarfi ke ƙara ƙarfi (“The Exponential Age”). Shi mai tsawon lokaci ne, mai ƙarfi a crypto — sananne da kiran “Banana Zone” parabola da ake maimaitawa, sau da yawa an jinkirta.
Pal ya jagoranci tallace-tallacen hedging-fund na Turai a Goldman Sachs, sannan ya haɗa gudanar da GLG Global Macro Fund, kafin ya “yi ritaya” a cikin shekarunsa talatin zuwa Cayman Islands. A 2005 ya ƙaddamar da Global Macro Investor (GMI), wasiƙar bincike mai tsada ga cibiyoyi; a 2014 ya haɗa kafa Real Vision, dandamalin kafofin watsa labarai na kuɗi, kuma a yau yana wallafa podcast “The Journey Man”. Shi mai saka jari ne kuma mai wallafa ba mai ciniki mai aiki ba.
Tun daga kusan 2020 Pal ya zama mai ƙarfi a crypto — yana bayyana shi a matsayin mafi kyawun haɗari/riƙo da ya taɓa gani — kuma ya gina tsarin da yanzu yake maimaitawa: ruwa yana rufe zagayowar bashi, don haka a cikin kuɗin da ake lalata, kadarori masu ƙaranci da haɓaka suna ci gaba da ƙima. Wannan ya sa shi ɗaya daga cikin manyan masu goyon bayan macro na crypto; hakan ya kuma sa “banana zone” ya zama meme, tun da parabola da yake hasashen sau da yawa tana zuwa da wuri.
Sources: realvision.com · globalmacroinvestor.com · youtube.com/@RaoulPalTJM · public interviews
Pal yana ciniki zagaye, ba fitila ba. Babban canjin sa shine ruwa na duniya (M2, takardun bankin tsakiya), ana karanta shi tare da zagayowar kasuwanci / ISM. Injiniyan hujja shine “The Everything Code” — bango na sake biyan bashi yana tilasta hukumomi su ƙara ruwa da lalata kudi, don haka kadarorin da aka ƙididdige a cikin wannan kudin da ake lalata suna ci gaba da tashi — wanda “The Exponential Age” (karɓar Metcalfe na crypto da AI) ke ƙara ƙarfi. A aikace yana rarrabawa da riƙewa: “ka ɗauke shi kamar zaɓin kira ka bar caca ta ci gaba,” yana saka hannun jari a lokacin rauni maimakon lokacin fita.
Tsari, mai ƙarfi mai saye da riƙewa wanda ke ɗaukar faduwa a matsayin hayaniya a cikin super-cycle na ruwa na shekaru da yawa. Hadarin salon sa shine lokaci: hujjar na iya zama gaba ɗaya daidai yayin da “banana zone” ke zuwa daga baya fiye da yadda aka yi alkawari.
Matsayi na ainihi, na kwanakin baya daga shirye-shiryen sa, an zana su da Bitcoin (babban wakilin crypto na sa). Gargadi akan son zuciya: Pal babban mai goyon bayan crypto ne na dindindin wanda kiran “Banana Zone” parabola na sa aka yi hasashe — kuma an jinkirta — shekaru da dama. Idan aka yi la'akari da shugabanci, kiran lokaci na ruwa na baya-bayan nan sun yi kyau; idan aka yi la'akari da babban kololuwa da aka yi alkawari, bai zo ba tukuna. Hujjoji ne, ba siginar ciniki ba; zagayowar ba ta ƙare ba.
“This is how I invest in crypto — treat it like a call option and let the bet play out; adoption gets us to $100T by ~2034.”
Riƙo na dogon lokaci, ba kiran lokaci ba. Bayan haka BTC ya fadi zuwa $58.6k (−21%) kafin ya dawo zuwa ~$76k (+2%) — dole ne ka jimre da zafi na gaske. Hujjar 2034 ba za a iya ƙaryata ta nan da nan ba.
Don't Make This Crypto Mistake▶ Kalli kiran · youtu.be/YNfWRnp0ATc“The biggest investment cycle in history has already begun — for me the probability of a super-cycle is rising.”
Daidai a shugabanci har yanzu: BTC ya tashi $62k → $76k (+22%) daga wannan rana. Matakin tashi ya zo; ko zai zama super-cycle na gaskiya tambaya ce a buɗe.
The Biggest Investment Cycle in History Has Already Begun▶ Kalli kiran · youtu.be/3n2UpyKETZw“Liquidity is being pushed into the system — this looks like a bottoming pattern; markets are getting ready to move.”
Lokaci mai kyau: daga wannan kiran BTC ya tashi $65k → $76k (+18%) daga ƙasan da ya nuna. Karatun juyin ruwa ya yi aiki.
Why Markets Could Be Ready To Move | Julien Bittel & Raoul Pal▶ Kalli kiran · youtu.be/dEDMg2M5Mio“The next breakout investing opportunity is setting up.”
Na baya-bayan nan — BTC yana +10% tun daga ($69k → $76k) amma “fitarwa” na gaskiya bai tabbatar ba tukuna. Daya za a sake duba.
The Next Breakout Investing Opportunity? w/ Andrew Kang▶ Kalli kiran · youtu.be/2qsUh1sMDfsSakamako shine karatun mu na shugabancin da ya bayyana da farashin BTC, ba maki na sa ba. Hujjojin macro suna da shugabanci da tsawon lokaci — kiran “a buɗe” ana sake dubawa yayin da ruwa ke ci gaba.
Pal yana bayyana cewa shi mai wallafa ne kuma mai saka jari wanda ke da yawa a cikin kadarorin da yake goyon baya — dalili biyu masu ƙarfi da ya kamata a tuna lokacin da yanayin ya yi farin ciki.
Global Macro Investor sabis ne na bincike mai tsada ga cibiyoyi (adadi mai yawa a shekara); ra'ayoyin sa na jama'a kyauta ne don jawo hankalin su.
Biyan kuɗi na Real Vision, kwasa-kwasai da rahotanni (misali Exponential Age) suna samun kuɗi daga masu sauraro. Shirye-shiryen kyauta talla ne, ba shawara mai zaman kanta ba.
Ya ce yana da yawa a cikin crypto/tech. Yin daidai yana biyan sa sau biyu — ta kayayyaki da kuma fayil ɗin sa — don haka a yi la'akari da wannan a matsayin mai goyon baya na dindindin.
“The biggest investment cycle in history has already begun … for me the probability of a super-cycle is rising.”
09 Jul 2026 · hujjar super-cycle mai tsayi“Treat it like a call option and let the bet play out.”
28 May 2026 · yadda yake saka jari a crypto — saye da riƙe hujja“Liquidity is being pushed into the system — this looks like a bottoming pattern.”
06 Aug 2026 · karatun lokaci na ruwaKiran da aka rubuta daga bidiyoyin sa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Pal yana wallafa macro mai tsawo a The Journey Man, da kuma Real Vision. Ayyuka na kwanan nan masu wakilci:
The Biggest Investment Cycle in History Has Already BegunHujjar super-cycle ɗin sa an bayyana ta a cikin gabatarwa ɗaya.09 Jul 2026
It Explains EverythingThe Everything Code — ruwa, bashi da lalata kudi.30 Jul 2026
Raoul's Exponential Age GuideBangaren karɓa / Metcalfe na tsarin.16 Jul 2026Why Markets Could Be Ready To MoveLokacin ruwa tare da Julien Bittel na GMI.06 Aug 2026Podcast ɗin Pal shine jerin manyan mutane na macro da crypto. Taswirar da'irorin da yake motsawa — hanyoyin bayanai za su haɗa su yayin da bayanan ke ƙaruwa.
Shugaban binciken macro na GMI — bayanan bayan kiran ruwa.
Abokin goyon bayan crypto-macro — ra'ayoyi masu haɗin ruwa / altcoin.
Crypto OG (ShapeShift) — ikon kai da karɓa.
Mechanism Capital — mai ciniki/VC akan fitarwa na gaba.
Raoul Pal — mai saka jari macro na Birtaniya, wanda ya kafa Global Macro Investor kuma ya haɗa kafa Real Vision. Ba suna na bogi ba ne.
Ba a bayyana a fili ba. Kimantawa suna kaiwa miliyoyin (tsohon Goldman, wanda ya kafa GMI/Real Vision, manyan matsayi na crypto na farko); a ɗauki duk waɗannan adadi a matsayin kusan da ba a tabbatar ba.
Babu wani matakin doka da aka sani a kansa. Yana gudanar da bincike da kafofin watsa labarai na gaskiya kuma yana bayyana cewa yana da yawa a crypto; kamar koyaushe, a raba sharhin sa daga kayayyakin da yake sayarwa kuma kada a saka jari ba tare da tunani ba.
Macro na duniya daga sama zuwa ƙasa wanda aka gina akan ruwa (M2, bankunan tsakiya, zagayowar kasuwanci) tare da hujjar lalata kudi “Everything Code” da karɓar “Exponential Age”. Yana rarraba zuwa crypto/tech kuma yana riƙe ta cikin zagayowar maimakon ciniki.
Raoul yana ciniki zagayowar ruwa na shekaru da yawa: mai yawa crypto, saye da riƙe, ƙarfi mai yawa, faduwa a matsayin hayaniya. Nawa ne kusancin hankalin ka — auna shi da gaske tare da Fasfo ɗin Mai Ciniki.
Yanzu yi ciniki da karatun ka. Gwada hujjar a bayanan kasuwa na gaske — ba tare da haɗarin kuɗi ba — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta tare da kyaututtuka na gaske.
Bincike na ilimi da bayani bisa ga kayan da ake da su a fili (bidiyoyin sa, hira da bayanan jama'a). Ba shawarar kuɗi ko saka jari ba ce. Adadi kusan ne kuma yana canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Raoul? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 24 August 2026
