@100trillionUSD
Masanin lissafin kuɗi ɗan Netherlands da ba a san sunansa ba, wanda ya mai da jadawalin samar da Bitcoin zuwa wani chart da kasuwa gaba ɗaya ta yi ta muhawara a kansa. Samfurinsa na Stock-to-Flow ya sa ya yi suna — sannan ya kuskure sosai a 2021. A yau yana wallafa abin da ya fi burin farashi wuya: rufewar wata mai kwanan wata, tare da matakansa da yiwuwarsa, kowane wata. Wannan tarihi ne da za ka iya duba shi da gaske.
A taƙaice. PlanB shi ne marubucin samfurin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) na Bitcoin da ke ɓoye sunansa — ra'ayin 2019 cewa farashin Bitcoin zai bi ƙarancinsa. Bai taɓa bayyana ko wane ne shi ba, yana kwatanta kansa kawai a matsayin mai saka jari na cibiya daga Netherlands mai asalin ƙididdiga. Hanyarsa ta na'ura ce kuma a fili take: kowane wata yana wallafa rufewar wata ta Bitcoin tare da matsakaicin motsi na makonni 200, realized price da RSI na wata, sannan ya faɗi abin da yake tsammani zai biyo baya. A lokacin faɗuwar 2026 wannan tsari ya yi aiki sau biyu: ya yi hasashen karyewa zuwa ƙasan a watan Fabrairu sannan kuma a watan Yuni. Ya kuma gaza sau biyu, ta hanya mafi koyarwa: har yanzu yana kiran ƙarin faɗuwa daidai a kan ƙasan kasuwa, sannan kuma wata guda bayan haka. Burinsa na dogon lokaci na S2F na $500k yana nan a buɗe, kuma babban hasashensa na 2021 ya kuskure fiye da rabi.
A watan Maris 2019 wani asusu da ba a san sunansa ba ya wallafa a Medium wata makala mai suna “Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity”, wadda ta yi jayayya cewa farashin Bitcoin yana bin rabon stock-to-flow — girman wadatar da ake da ita a raba ta da sabon fitarwa na shekara. Chart ɗin ya bazu ko'ina, sunan @100trillionUSD (nuni ga takardar kuɗi ta tiriliyan 100 ta Zimbabwe) ya zama ɗaya daga cikin waɗanda aka fi bi a duniyar Bitcoin, kuma “S2F” ya zama gajeren sunan hujjar hauhawa da halving ke jagoranta. PlanB bai taɓa bayyana ko wane ne shi ba, yana faɗin kawai cewa shi mai saka jari ne ɗan Netherlands mai asalin ilimin kuɗi na ƙididdiga da shekaru da yawa a masana'antar.
Gwaji mafi shahara na samfurin ya gaza. S2F ya nuna adadi mai lambobi shida don zagayen 2021, kuma PlanB ya sa samfurin a kan gwaji a fili. A 23 ga Yuni 2021 ya rubuta: “I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year, we can not stay at current levels for the rest of the year.” Bitcoin bai ma kusanto ba — ya ƙare 2021 kusan $46k — kuma a 18 ga Disamba 2021 ya ƙi cika alkawarin: “Will I ditch S2F model if this does not happen? Nah, I actually like being at the lower bands.” Masu suka sun daɗe suna cewa samfurin yana da hujja mai zagayowa kuma ya ƙi kula da buƙata gaba ɗaya; wannan lamari — kuskuren da kuma janye gwajin nasa na ɓatawa — shi ne shaidarsu mafi ƙarfi, kuma ya cancanci zama a farkon kowane shafi na gaskiya game da shi.
Abin da yake yi yanzu ya fi kunkuntar kuma ya fi sauƙin dubawa. Kowane wata yana wallafa rufewar wata ta Bitcoin tare da lambobi uku — matsakaicin motsi na makonni 200, realized price (matsakaicin kuɗin siye na on-chain) da RSI na wata — sannan ya bayyana tsammaninsa. Waɗannan wallafe-wallafen suna da kwanan wata, suna a fili kuma sun isa a auna su, wanda shi ne ainihin abin da chart ɗin da ke ƙasa yake yi. Adadinsa na S2F na dogon lokaci ga zagayen halving na 2024–2028 shi ne $500k, cikin kewayon $250k–$1m — da'awa da har yanzu take a buɗe, ba a tabbatar da ita ba.
Sources: x.com/100trillionUSD · youtube.com/@PlanB_Bitcoin · planbtc.com · medium.com/@100trillionUSD · dated third-party coverage
Samfuri da farko, Bitcoin kaɗai, tsarin lokaci na wata-wata. PlanB ba ya cinikin cikin rana kuma ba ya taɓa altcoin a fili. Kayan aikinsa jerin gajerun alamu ne masu jinkiri, na on-chain kuma na dogon lokaci — rabon stock-to-flow don ƙima, matsakaicin motsi na makonni 200 da realized price a matsayin yankin ƙasa a kasuwa mai faɗuwa, da RSI na wata a matsayin tacewar yanayi (ƙasa da 50 = yanayin sauka). Yana magana da yiwuwa da jerin yanayi maimakon buri guda ɗaya, kuma yana sabunta ra'ayinsa bisa tsayayyen jadawalin wata maimakon ya amsa labarai. Ƙarfinsa shi ne daidaito: koyaushe ka san abin da yake tunani da lokacin da ya faɗe shi. Raunin kuma daidai wannan ne — samfurin ɓangaren samarwa mai agogon wata-wata ba ya iya gani a tsarin girgizar buƙata ko madaidaicin juyi, shi ya sa har yanzu yake kiran ƙarin faɗuwa a ranar da ƙasan 2026 ya buga da gaske.
A dogon lokaci yana da ra'ayin hauhawa a tsarin (S2F $500k a wannan zagaye), amma a duk shekarar 2026 matsayinsa na gajeren lokaci ya ci gaba da zama na faɗuwa — yana ta jiran wani ƙarin sauka, har ma a kan ƙasan kansa.
Maganganu bakwai na jama'a masu kwanan wata daga 2026, an ɗauko kowanne aka tabbatar da shi kalma-da-kalma kafin a saka shi cikin chart — shida daga wallafe-wallafensa na X, ɗaya kuma an adana shi a rahoton NewsBTC. Da gangan wannan cikakken samfurin kiraye-kirayensa ne a cikin taga lokacin, ba zaɓi na abubuwa masu kyau kaɗai ba: biyun da suka juya masa baya su ne kiraye-kirayensa biyu na ƙarshe na faɗuwa. Kayan S2F ɗinsa na 2019–2021 sun shahara amma sun fita daga tagar farashin nan don haka ba za a iya sanya su cikin chart ba — an tattauna su a sashen tarihi, gami da kuskuren 2021.
“IMO there are 4 bitcoin bear market scenarios: 1) -80% from ATH $126k => $25k 2) down to 200w MA / realized price => $50k-60k 3) down to just above previous ATH => $70k 4) yesterday’s $72.9k was the bottom”
Da BTC yana $75,628 ya gabatar da yiwuwar ƙasa guda huɗu. Sannan farashin ya faɗi −22.6% zuwa $58,566 — cikin yanayinsa na 2, wato tsakanin $50k–60k na matsakaicin motsi da realized price — kuma yanzu yana ciniki a $78,994 (+4.5%). Ƙidaya ta gaskiya: wannan jerin yanayi huɗu ne, ba kira ɗaya ba, don haka ba za a ƙidaya shi a matsayin daidaitaccen buga ba. An ƙidaya shi a matsayin wanda ya tabbata saboda ƙasan gaskiya ya faɗo cikin yankin da ya kira yanayin tushe na tarihi, kuma saboda yanayinsa biyu masu sauƙi ($70k, da “$72.9k shi ne ƙasan”) duk sun yi kuskure. A lura kuma cewa daga baya marubucin ya goge wallafar ta asali; rubutun kalma-da-kalma yana nan a labarin NewsBTC — shi ne muke haɗawa kuma da shi muka tabbatar.
SourcePlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.com“I would not be surprised if BTC dips below 200w moving average ($59k) and realized price ($54k) before next leg up towards S2F $500k levels ($250k-$1m range).”
Sassa biyu, ɗaya ya tabbata. Daga $68,107 Bitcoin lallai ya sauka ƙasa da MA ɗinsa na makonni 200 — ƙasan bayan wannan wallafa ya kai $58,566 (−14.0%), kaɗan ƙasa da $59k da ya ambata. Ɓangare na biyu bai taɓa faruwa ba: ba a taɓa gwada realized price na $54k ba, kuma “sabon hawan zuwa $500k” ba a ganinsa ko ina, yayin da BTC yake $78,994 (+16.0%) kuma matsayi mafi girma bayan kiran shi ne $82,018 (+20.4%). Rabi daidai kuma har yanzu bai warware ba, don haka muna rubuta shi a matsayin a buɗe maimakon mu ƙidaya masa.
𝕏 PostBitcoin closed March at $68,215 (RSI 44) — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs but IMO bitcoin will go lower🔵before next bull market🔴”
Kira ne na alkibla, ba na matsayi ba. Daga $68,672 Bitcoin ya sauka daidai yadda ya faɗa — −14.7% zuwa $58,566 — kafin ya farfaɗo zuwa $78,994 (+15.0%). Rabin “da farko ƙasa” ya cika sarai. Rabin “sabbin matsayi mafi girma na tarihi” bai gwaji ba tukuna: a $78,994 Bitcoin har yanzu yana kusan 37% ƙasa da ƙolin Oktoba na $126k da yake ambata, don haka wannan kati yana ƙidaya karatun gajeren lokaci kaɗai.
𝕏 PostNo doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).”
Kiransa mafi tsafta na shekarar, kuma a kan kasuwa da ta rabu biyu. Da BTC yana $73,599 — kuma kasuwa a rabe 50/50 kan ko ƙasan Fabrairu shi ne ƙasan gaskiya — ya ba da yiwuwar fiye da rabi cewa za a karya ƙasa da $61k. Bitcoin ya faɗi −20.4% zuwa $58,566 cikin kusan makonni biyar, kai tsaye ta wannan matsayi. Tun daga lokacin ya farfaɗo zuwa $78,994 (+7.3%). Daidai a alkibla, matsayi da lokaci.
𝕏 PostBitcoin closed May at $73,568 — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price ...”
An wallafa shi a kan ƙasan kansa. Bitcoin yana $58,566, kuma hujjarsa ta tarihi — kowane ƙasan kasuwa mai faɗuwa da ya gabata ya buga ƙasa da realized price, wato kusan ~$52k a lokacin — ta nuna ƙarin faɗuwa. Babu ko ɗaya. Farashi mafi ƙanƙanta bayan wannan wallafa shi ne wannan $58,566 (0.0%), kuma Bitcoin ya haura zuwa $78,994, +34.9% tun ranar da ya wallafa. Tsarin da yake jiran ya cika bai taɓa cika ba, kuma ƙasan da yake jira ya riga ya wuce.
𝕏 PostBitcoin closed June at $58,526 — below the 200-week MA — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range)”
Babbar hujjarsa, an sake bayyana ta da lokacin da ya bayar a matsayin wannan zagaye, 2026–2028. Da wuri sosai a yanke hukunci. Tun wallafar BTC ya sauka kawai −3.4% zuwa $62,803 kuma yanzu yana $78,994 (+21.6%) — alkibla tana tare da shi, girman kuwa ba kusa ba: $500k har yanzu yana kusan 6x daga nan, kuma Bitcoin bai riga ya dawo kan $126k ɗin da yake cewa ba shi ne ƙolin ba. An rubuta shi a buɗe, za a warware shi a ƙarshen zagaye, ba a wannan kwata ba.
𝕏 PostOct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO — @100trillionUSD↗ x.com“It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming process. This normally takes 1-3 months and BTC would drop lower during this phase (below realized).”
Tsarin daidai ne — hakika samuwar ƙasa ta fara — amma ɓangaren da za a iya ciniki shi ne tsammanin ƙarin faɗuwa ƙasa da realized price ($52k). Akasin haka ya faru. Daga $62,897 faɗuwa mafi zurfi tun lokacin ita ce $62,803 (−0.1%), kuma Bitcoin yana $78,994, +25.6% cikin ƙasa da makonni huɗu. Da adalci, tagarsa ta wata 1–3 ba za ta rufe ba sai kusan Nuwamba 2026, don haka har yanzu tana iya warwarewa; amma har yau farashin ya yi tafiya sosai akasin wannan kira.
𝕏 PostBitcoin closed July $62,818 · monthly RSI 43 — @100trillionUSD↗ x.comSakamakon karatunmu ne na tsammanin da ya bayyana idan aka kwatanta da farashin gaskiya, ba nasa lissafin ba. An tabbatar da kowace magana da tushen kai tsaye (API ɗin rarraba na X ko HTML ɗin labarin) — akwai hanyoyin haɗi a kowane kati. Alamun gajeren lokaci na iya sauyawa: tagar samuwar ƙasan sa ta «wata 1–3» daga watan Agusta ba za ta rufe ba sai kusan Nuwamba 2026.
PlanB ba kamar sauran manyan asusun crypto ba ne: babu ƙungiyar biya, babu kwas, kuma babu token a tashoshinsa. Abin da ake gani shi ne hanyar haɗin abokin hulɗa ta wata kasuwar musaya a shafinsa, tare da tattalin arziƙin martabar zama wanda ake ambaton samfurinsa. Ya kamata ka san duka biyun kafin ka auna wata wallafarsa mai ra'ayin hauhawa.
Shafinsa planbtc.com yana haɗawa zuwa Bybit ta hanyar haɗin abokin hulɗa/affiliate (partner.bybit.com/b/planb). Yarjejeniyoyin affiliate galibi suna biya bisa sabbin rajista da kuɗaɗen ciniki — wannan ƙarfafawa tana ba da lada ga aiki, ba ga daidaito ba.
X, YouTube da Medium kyauta ne kuma, har zuwa kwanan wannan shafi, ba mu sami wata sabis na siginar biya, kwas ko wasiƙar labarai da ake tallatawa a fili ba. Samun kuɗi kai tsaye ba ne: masu sauraro, tallafi da kuɗin dandamali.
Sunansa ba ya rabuwa da Stock-to-Flow. Samfurin da ya riga ya yi kuskure a fili sau ɗaya yana haifar da ƙarfin jan hankali wajen kare shi — karanta wallafe-wallafen dogon lokaci game da $500k kana tunawa da wannan, tare da kuskuren 2021 da ya janye.
“IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).”
01 Jun 2026 · kiransa mafi kyau na 2026, a X — sannan BTC ya faɗi 20% zuwa ƙasan“ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price ...”
01 Jul 2026 · an wallafa shi daidai a kan ƙasan — tsarin bai maimaitu ba“Will I ditch S2F model if this does not happen? Nah, I actually like being at the lower bands.”
18 Dec 2021 · janye gwajin nasa na ɓatawa bayan kuskuren $100k — ta ProtosKarin magana daga bidiyoyin sa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Tsawon aikinsa shi ne bidiyon nazarin Bitcoin na kowane wata — farashi, RSI, matsakaitan motsi, realized price da stock-to-flow, kowane lokaci a jere ɗaya. Waɗannan su ne sabbin shirye-shiryen da aka jera a fili a tashar sa (an ambaci bidiyoyinsa na wata-wata na 2026 a wallafe-wallafensa amma ba a samun su a fili a tashar a lokacin rubuta wannan):
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis December 2025Rufewar wata, RSI da realized price — tsarin da duk kiraye-kirayen da ke sama suka fito daga gare shi.04 Dec 2025
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis November 2025Watan bayan ƙolin $126k da yanzu yake kira ƙoli na wucin gadi, ba ƙolin zagaye ba.01 Nov 2025
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis October 2025Karatun kafin ƙoli, mai amfani don auna yadda samfurinsa ya bi da juyin.03 Oct 2025
PlanB Bitcoin Analysis August 2025Bitar wata na yau da kullum kan S2F, MA na makonni 200 da RSI.04 Aug 2025PlanB ya fi zama mai gina samfura fiye da baƙo na yau da kullum a podcast, amma tsarinsa yana tsakiyar muhawarar da duk masu nazarin zagaye suke yi. Waɗannan su ne muryoyin da aikinsu ya fi haɗuwa ko karo kai tsaye da nasa — hanyoyin haɗin fayil suna haɗa su yayin da bayanan ke ƙaruwa.
Dangi mafi kusa: wani tsarin zagayen halving, amma an gina shi kan tsarin farashi da lokacin da ya wuce tun halving maimakon rabon wadata.
Manazarcin zagaye na ƙididdiga kuma mai suka mai dagewa kan samfuran wadata da aka wuce gona da iri wajen daidaita su — ma'aunin bayanai na adawa da S2F.
Mai tunani kan macro-liquidity wanda yake bayyana waɗannan zagaye ta hanyar kuɗin duniya da dala maimakon ƙaranci.
Mai sharhin macro mai ba Bitcoin fifiko, wanda ya dogara da wannan matsakaicin motsi na makonni 200 da PlanB ke amfani da shi a matsayin ƙasan kasuwa mai faɗuwa.
PlanB shi ne wanda ya ƙirƙiri samfurin Stock-to-Flow na Bitcoin a ƙarƙashin ɓoyayyen suna, wanda aka wallafa a Medium a Maris 2019. Ba a taɓa bayyana ainihin sunansa ba; yana kwatanta kansa a matsayin mai saka jari na cibiya ɗan Netherlands mai asalin ilimin kuɗi na ƙididdiga. Yana wallafawa da sunan @100trillionUSD a X — nuni ga takardar kuɗi ta tiriliyan 100 ta hauhawar farashi ta Zimbabwe.
Ba a zagayen 2021 ba. S2F ya nuna adadi mai lambobi shida, kuma a Yuni 2021 ya ce zai bayyana samfurin a matsayin ɓatacce idan Bitcoin bai kai $100k ba kafin Disamba. Bai kai ba — shekarar ta ƙare kusan $46k — kuma a Disamba ya zaɓi kada ya ɓata shi, yana cewa yana son zama a ƙananan igiyoyi. Adadinsa na S2F na yanzu ga zagayen 2024–2028 shi ne $500k cikin kewayon $250k–$1m — ba a tabbatar da shi ta kowace hanya ba.
Zuwa tsakiyar 2026 yana riƙe da cewa ƙolin Oktoba na $126k ba shi ne ƙolin zagaye ba kuma cewa stock-to-flow yana nuna kusan $500k, cikin kewayon $250k–$1m, a wani lokaci tsakanin 2026 zuwa 2028. A gajeren lokaci ya ci gaba da ra'ayin faɗuwa a duk 2026, yana jiran ƙasa a ƙasa da realized price wanda bai buga ba.
Yana da daidaito kuma ana iya duba shi, wanda hakan ya fi zama daidai wuya. Bisa bayanan da ke nan: uku daga cikin kiraye-kiraye bakwai masu kwanan wata na 2026 sun tabbata, biyu suna nan a buɗe, kuma biyu sun juya masa baya — ciki har da ɗaya da aka wallafa daidai a kan ƙasan. Shahararren hasashensa na 2021 ya kuskure fiye da rabi. Ka ɗauki wallafe-wallafensa a matsayin ra'ayin jama'a mai kwanan wata daga samfuri mai sanannun makauniyar wuri, kada ka taɓa ɗaukarsa a matsayin siginar ciniki.
PlanB samfuri ne, kalanda ne da haƙuri mai yawa: Bitcoin kaɗai, tsarin wata-wata, alamu iri ɗaya kowane lokaci. Yaya kusanci ra'ayinka yake — auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka sanya hanyar ka aiki. Gwada fa'idarka a bayanan kasuwa na gaske — ba tare da haɗarin kuɗi ba — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta tare da kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari ne na bayanai da ilimi wanda ya dogara sosai kan kayan da ake samu a fili (wallafe-wallafensa na X masu kwanan wata da rahotannin wasu masu kwanan wata, an haɗa su a kowane kira). Ba shawara ce ta kuɗi ko saka jari ba. Lambobin kusan-kusan ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you PlanB? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 25 August 2026
