@PeterLBrandt
Ɗan kasuwar futures na kayayyaki tun 1976 wanda ke karanta Bitcoin da littattafan taswira na shekarun 1930 iri ɗaya da yake amfani da su ga waken soya. Brandt ba ya sayar da tabbaci — asusunsa da kansa ana kiransa “The Factor Report”, kuma a can aka rubuta cewa rahoton “does NOT make predictions” — “We present possibilities”. Yana sanya musu kwanan wata a bainar jama'a, don haka ana iya duba su.
A taƙaice. Peter Brandt shi ne muryar da ta fi kowa daɗewa a sharhin kirifto: ya fara cinikin futures na kayayyaki a ContiCommodity a 1976, ya kafa Factor LLC a 1980, kuma ya rubuta guda biyu daga cikin littattafan ƙa'ida kan siffofin taswira na gargajiya. A kirifto an fi saninsa da ƙololuwar Bitcoin ta Disamba 2017 — Cointelegraph ya rubuta cewa ya “correctly called the top of Bitcoin 'within a day' and predicted an 80% correction, a forecast that eventuated over the following 12 months”. Hanyarsa siffa ce tare da haɗari, ba maƙasudin farashi ba: yana neman caca marar daidaito kuma yana juyawa da sauri idan siffa ta gaza — daidai abin da bayanan 2026 a ƙasa ke nunawa. Ya yi daidai kuma da wuri kan ƙololuwar Maris, ya kuskure kan ƙasan Ethereum, ya kuskure kan juyawa zuwa zinariya, sannan ya sayi ɓarkewar Agusta da ya shafe mako biyu yana jayayya da ita.
Brandt ya shiga harkar kayayyaki a 1976 tare da ContiCommodity Services, wani reshe na Continental Grain, yana kula da manyan asusun cibiyoyi — ciki har da Campbell Soup, Godiva Chocolate da Homestake Mining. A 1980 ya kafa kamfaninsa Factor LLC, yana cinikin jarinsa kuma yana gudanar da bincike ga cibiyoyi ciki har da Commodities Corporation ta Princeton, wadda a lokacin tana ɗaya daga cikin manyan gidajen ciniki a duniya. Ya buga Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns a 1990 da Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader (Wiley) a 2011, wanda ya kasance littafin ciniki mafi matsayi a Amazon har mako 27. A 2011 shafin The Big Picture na Barry Ritholtz ya lissafa shi cikin mutane 30 mafi tasiri a harkar kuɗi.
Sunansa a kirifto ya dogara ne kan kira ɗaya shahararre: a cewar Cointelegraph, a Disamba 2017 ya “correctly called the top of Bitcoin 'within a day' and predicted an 80% correction, a forecast that eventuated over the following 12 months”. Yana da gaskiya ta musamman cewa wannan tsira ce ta ƙididdiga, ba annabci ba. Lokacin da Cointelegraph ya tambaye shi a Yuli 2025 ya ce: “I'll take credit for that call, but I'll take credit for the bad calls too, because I'm making those bad calls”. A wannan hira ɗaya ya yi jayayya cewa “anyone that looks at the charts and tries to tell you where anything is going is actually just kind of fooling themselves”, kuma ribarsa ita ce daidaiton haɗari da riba, ba daidaito ba: “Give me a point where I can risk $1 and possibly make four, then I don't care whether I'm only right half the time or not”.
Wannan tsarin yana da muhimmanci wajen karanta taswirorin da ke ƙasa. Brandt yana buga yiwuwa kuma yana barin su da sauri, don haka rubutu ɗaya hoto ne na matsayi, ba ra'ayi da zai kare ba. Har ila yau shi mai sayar da bincike ne da ake biya — The Factor Report biyan kuɗi ne na $347 a shekara — kuma yana cinikin kuɗinsa a kasuwannin da yake zanawa, abin da yake faɗa a fili (“I bought the breakout for better or worse”).
Sources: x.com/PeterLBrandt · peterlbrandt.com · Cointelegraph Magazine · Bitcoin.com News
Taswira ta gargajiya, haɗari da farko. Brandt yana aiki da ƙa'idar siffofi ta Schabacker da Edwards/Magee — rectangles, wedges, head-and-shoulders, layukan wuya — a kan sandunan mako da wata, kuma yana nacewa cewa “Bitcoin obeys the rules of classical charting (Schabacker, Edwards/Magee) better than most markets”. Ba ya cinikin hasashe; yana cinikin ɓarkewa, da stop, kuma da girman matsayi da ke riba ko da daidaito na kashi 50 ne kawai. Yana faɗin yiwuwa maimakon maƙasudi (“a 60/40 chance to be resolved to the downside”), yana juyawa ba tare da wata magana ba idan siffa ta cika a ɗaya gefen, kuma yana ɗaukar zagayen halving na shekara huɗu a matsayin tsarin lokaci, ba samfurin farashi ba. Rauninsa shi ne ɗayan fuskar wannan: masu karatu suna karanta rubuce-rubucensa a matsayin alamun shugabanci ba tare da ganin stop ɗinsa ba, don haka yiwuwar da ya fita daga cikinta cikin rana ɗaya tana tsufa a bainar jama'a kamar hasashen da ya gaza.
Turned constructive in late September: he now sees “a good possibility” that the low is in and a new bull market has begun, though he still wants an early-October pullback toward $65,000–$66,000 to buy. His Bitcoin peak for late 2029 is now $300,000–$600,000. He flips tactically on pattern completions, as the August entry shows.
Ten dated public statements from Brandt inside the CoinGecko price window (5 Mar – 30 Sep 2026), charted against real price. Eight come from his own X posts, captured with x_capture.py so the text and date are the post's own; two are verbatim interview quotes confirmed on the linked Cointelegraph pages. This is a rolling 2026 sample, not a career score — his famous December 2017 top call and the 2018 bottom sit years outside any chartable window and are described in the background instead. Read it with his own rule in mind: he sizes for a 50% hit rate, so a went-against card here means the public post aged badly, not that the trade lost money.
“Small daily chart bottom in an area of longer term historical support $ETH”
He flagged a daily-chart bottom at long-term support with ETH at $2,182. It was not the bottom: Ethereum fell another 28.2% to $1,566 on 26 June before turning. The level did eventually matter — ETH is $2,665 today, +22.1% above where he called it — but anyone who bought that post sat through a 28% drawdown first, so we score the call itself against.
𝕏 Post“Small daily chart bottom … longer term historical support $ETH” — @PeterLBrandt↗ x.com“Bitcoin setting up for a rising wedge sell signal $BTC”
A textbook bearish pattern call with BTC at $71,304 — and the best call in this window. Bitcoin did eventually break to $58,566 on 1 July, −17.9%. The honest caveat is what came first: price rallied +15.0% to $82,018 on 11 May before the wedge resolved, so the signal cost six weeks and a 15% squeeze before it paid. BTC is +16.5% above matakin sa today.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin setting up for a rising wedge sell signal $BTC” — @PeterLBrandt↗ x.com“If it is a continuation rectangle with downside BO, then the 43.70 target from the massive H&S top will be confirmed”
Note the conditional — the same post opens “The Factor Report™️ does NOT make predictions” — “We present possibilities”. The downside did arrive: from $89 Solana fell 30.3% to $62 by 7 June. But the $43.70 target was never confirmed: SOL round-tripped to a $122 high on 26 September and sits at $119 today, +32.9% above where he posted. Direction paid for three weeks; the target did not print. Logged open.
𝕏 Post“The weekly chart of $SOL now presents a 14-week rectangle” — @PeterLBrandt↗ x.com“I am contemplating selling some of my Bitcoin and going to Gold with the money.”
Posted four days after the window low, with BTC at $63,088. Bitcoin never gave him a better exit: the deepest dip after this post was −1.3% to $62,247 on 9 July, and BTC is +31.7% higher at $83,099 today. We grade only the Bitcoin leg — his actual claim was about the XAU/BTC ratio, and we have no gold series here to chart the pair. On the leg we can measure, the timing was poor.
𝕏 Post“I am contemplating selling some of my Bitcoin and going to Gold” — @PeterLBrandt↗ x.com“I'll go out on a limb and say we bottom on October 4th. So we'll see”
The most specific call he has made this cycle: a cycle low on 4 October 2026, and the alternative he sketched was that “we crash through and really blow people out and move into the 50s, possibly the high 40s” first. With BTC at $64,670 the day he said it, the market went the other way — the deepest dip since was −2.9% to $62,773 on 2 August, then BTC climbed to $86,597 on 22 September, +33.9%, and sits at $83,099 today, +28.5% higher. We now score it against, four days early, for two reasons: a 4 October bottom would need a fall of roughly a third in four days, and Brandt has walked it back himself — by late September he was saying there was “a good possibility” the low was already in (see the 26 September card).
SourcePeter Brandt predicts the exact day Bitcoin's bear market will be over — Cointelegraph Magazine↗ cointelegraph.com“I am not in the bet yet, but if I were to bet it would be for a decline”
A bearish lean off the broken head-and-shoulders neckline, with BTC at $64,917. It was wrong almost immediately: the market fell only 3.2% to $62,844 on 17 August before turning, and BTC is +28.0% higher at $83,099 today. Credit where due — he said plainly he was not in the trade, and eleven days later he took the other side (below).
𝕏 Post“if I were to bet it would be for a decline” — @PeterLBrandt↗ x.com“I bought the breakout for better or worse”
The reversal that shows the method working. Having argued the inverted H&S had “a 60/40 chance to be resolved to the downside,” he flipped the moment the bottom completed and bought at $69,291. BTC ran to $86,597 on 22 September, +25.0%, with no drawdown at all from his entry, and sits at $83,099 today, +19.9% above it. Six weeks on the trade is still green, and he was publicly still in it on 28 August — the next card.
𝕏 Post“I bought the breakout for better or worse” — @PeterLBrandt↗ x.com“Also am long Bitcoin, long NY Sugar, long Peso, short Lean Hogs”
Eight days after buying the breakout he listed his whole book in public, and Bitcoin was still on it — with BTC at $80,268, right in the $80,000–$82,000 band that had capped every rally since May. It is the highest price at which he is on record long this year, and it tested him: BTC slid −5.8% to $75,590 on 16 September before the band finally broke, with a high of $86,597 on 22 September, +7.9%. BTC is $83,099 today, +3.5% above him. Still logged open: the post is a position disclosure with a stop we cannot see, and a 5.8% dip may have been enough to take him out.
𝕏 Post“Also am long Bitcoin, long NY Sugar, long Peso, short Lean Hogs” — @PeterLBrandt↗ x.com“It implies an eventual move to 8,600 once 5,000 is handled”
A long-term Ethereum chart with a two-step target: clear $5,000 first, then $8,600. With ETH at $2,645 the day he posted, the first step alone is an 89% climb, so this is a multi-year possibility rather than a trade. In the same post he wrote that “A claim of a "call" or simple presentation of a chart is NOT a trade”, and we chart it on those terms. ETH touched $2,775 the next day, +4.9%, and is $2,665 today, +0.8%. Open.
𝕏 Post“It implies an eventual move to 8,600 once 5,000 is handled” — @PeterLBrandt↗ x.com“There’s a good possibility we have seen the low and now are entering a new bull market cycle in Bitcoin”
His own reversal of the 4 October bottom call. Cointelegraph published a clip of the interview on 26 September and the write-up on 29 September. In it he says there is “a good possibility” the low is in, but he would still welcome a sharp pullback toward $65,000–$66,000 in early October as a buying spot. He also raised his late-2029 peak range to $300,000–$600,000. BTC was $84,076 on 26 September and is $83,099 today, −1.2%. The dip he wants would be a fall of 21–22% from here. Open: this is a four-year thesis and it is four days old.
SourcePeter Brandt says Bitcoin may hit $600K by 2029, calls XRP a ‘fool coin’ — Cointelegraph Magazine↗ cointelegraph.comOutcomes are our read of his stated direction against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring. Brandt explicitly frames posts as possibilities rather than predictions and exits fast, so a red card can reflect a position he closed the same week — we have no visibility into his stops. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves. We scored his 4 October 2026 bottom date as against four days early, because by late September he himself saw “a good possibility” that the low was already in.
Brandt mai sayar da bincike ne da ake biya wanda kuma yake cinikin jarinsa — tsari mafi tsafta fiye da haɓaka token, amma yana nufin rubuce-rubucen kyauta bakin famfon biyan kuɗi ne, kuma yana da matsayi a cikin abin da yake zanawa.
Sabis ɗinsa na bincike na biyan kuɗi, $347/shekara, yana rufe futures, forex, kayayyaki da kirifto: sanarwar ciniki ta taswira, gidan yanar gizo na membobi, al'umma ta sirri da damar shiga tashar sa ta sirri. Rubuce-rubucen jama'a a X su ne tagar shago.
Factor LLC tana cinikin kuɗinsa. Yana bayyana matsayi a wucewa ba a tsari ba — “I bought the breakout for better or worse” — don haka ka ɗauka yana cikin wasu daga abin da yake zanawa, kuma zai iya fita kafin ka karanta.
Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns (1990) da Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader (Wiley, 2011), tare da gidajen yanar gizo da shirin Chart Wizards. Kuɗin shiga na dogon zango da ke ɗaure da sunansa a matsayin malamin hanya.
“Actually, Bitcoin obeys the rules of classical charting (Schabacker, Edwards/Magee) better than most markets”
27 Mar 2026 · me ya sa yake zana kirifto kwata-kwata“The Factor Report™️ does NOT make predictions
We present possibilities”
“Anyone who thinks bitcoin should be in a bull market right now is not paying attention to the big cyclic nature of bitcoin.”
21 Jul 2026 · ra'ayin ƙirƙirar ƙasa na 2026“I'll take credit for that call, but I'll take credit for the bad calls too, because I'm making those bad calls”
29 Jul 2025 · kan kiran ƙololuwar 2017 — wajen tagar taswiraKarin magana daga bidiyoyin sa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Brandt mutumin X ne da wasiƙar labarai, ba YouTuber ba — tashar sa da kanta tana shiru tun Fabrairu 2024, kuma duk abin da ya fitar a 2026 yana kan X da hirar podcast. Bidiyon da ke ƙasa nasa ne da aka ɗora tare da hira mai tsawo; suna da amfani ga hanyar, ba ga kiran yanzu ba:
Peter Brandt Public Webinar November 2023 — Market Review and Q&ACikakken zagaye kan matsayinsa mai gudana — mafi kyawun kallo kan yadda yake auna girman matsayi da sarrafa haɗari da gaske.28 Nov 2023
$BTC #Bitcoin Long Form Interview — Peter L BrandtHira mai tsawo kan Bitcoin da taswira ta gargajiya, an yi rikodinta cikin zurfin kasuwar faɗuwa da ta wuce.20 Jul 2022
Peter Brandt quick 2020 in review and 2021 look forward in BitcoinTsarinsa na shekara kan Bitcoin — yana da kyau a kwatanta shi da yadda 2021 ya ƙare da gaske.04 Jan 2021
Classical Charting Principles That Really MatterƘa'idar siffofi da har yanzu yake amfani da ita ga Bitcoin, an koyar da ita daga tushe.05 Nov 2015Peter L. Brandt ɗan kasuwar futures na kayayyaki ne na Amurka wanda yake cikin sana'ar tun 1976 kuma ya kafa Factor LLC a 1980. Yana ɗaya daga cikin sanannun masu aikin nazarin taswira na gargajiya, ya rubuta littattafai biyu na ƙa'ida kan siffofin taswira, kuma a kirifto ana yawan ambatonsa saboda gano ƙololuwar Bitcoin ta Disamba 2017 cikin kwana ɗaya na daidaito.
In July 2026 he called the cycle low for 4 October 2026. In a Cointelegraph interview published in late September he said there was “a good possibility” the low was already in and a new bull market had begun, with a late-2029 peak between $300,000 and $600,000. He still wants an early-October pullback toward $65,000–$66,000 as a buying spot. Bitcoin is about $83,099 today.
He is a trader and paid research vendor, not a licensed adviser, and he is explicit that he is wrong often — his edge is risk-reward, not accuracy. In the 2026 window charted here, two of ten dated calls played out, four are still open and four went against. Treat his posts as dated opinions with stops you cannot see, never as signals.
Taswira ta gargajiya kan sandunan mako da wata — rectangles, wedges, head-and-shoulders da layukan wuya daga ƙa'idar Schabacker da Edwards/Magee — tare da tsauraran auna girman matsayi. Yana cinikin ɓarkewa da ƙayyadadden haɗari, yana faɗin yiwuwa maimakon maƙasudi, kuma yana juyawa nan take idan siffa ta cika kansa.
Brandt yana cinikin siffofi da stop, ba hasashe da maƙasudi ba — kuma ba ya damuwa da yin kuskure rabin lokaci. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka sa hanyarka aiki. Gwada ribarka kan bayanan kasuwa na gaske — ba tare da haɗarin jari ba — a gasar BuyCrypt ta kyauta mai kyautuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayanai da ilimi bisa kayan jama'a kawai — rubuce-rubucensa masu kwanan wata a X da rahotannin ɓangare na uku masu kwanan wata, an haɗa su a kowane kira. Ba shawara ce ta kuɗi ko saka jari ba. Lambobin kusan ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Peter? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 30 September 2026
