Peter Brandt

@PeterLBrandt

~800K a XYana ciniki tun 1976Factor LLC · The Factor Report

Ɗan kasuwar futures na kayayyaki tun 1976 wanda ke karanta Bitcoin da littattafan taswira na shekarun 1930 iri ɗaya da yake amfani da su ga waken soya. Brandt ba ya sayar da tabbaci — asusunsa da kansa ana kiransa “The Factor Report”, kuma a can aka rubuta cewa rahoton “does NOT make predictions” — “We present possibilities”. Yana sanya musu kwanan wata a bainar jama'a, don haka ana iya duba su.

A taƙaice. Peter Brandt shi ne muryar da ta fi kowa daɗewa a sharhin kirifto: ya fara cinikin futures na kayayyaki a ContiCommodity a 1976, ya kafa Factor LLC a 1980, kuma ya rubuta guda biyu daga cikin littattafan ƙa'ida kan siffofin taswira na gargajiya. A kirifto an fi saninsa da ƙololuwar Bitcoin ta Disamba 2017 — Cointelegraph ya rubuta cewa ya “correctly called the top of Bitcoin 'within a day' and predicted an 80% correction, a forecast that eventuated over the following 12 months”. Hanyarsa siffa ce tare da haɗari, ba maƙasudin farashi ba: yana neman caca marar daidaito kuma yana juyawa da sauri idan siffa ta gaza — daidai abin da bayanan 2026 a ƙasa ke nunawa. Ya yi daidai kuma da wuri kan ƙololuwar Maris, ya kuskure kan ƙasan Ethereum, ya kuskure kan juyawa zuwa zinariya, sannan ya sayi ɓarkewar Agusta da ya shafe mako biyu yana jayayya da ita.

Tarihi — shekaru hamsin na taswira, sannan Bitcoin

Brandt ya shiga harkar kayayyaki a 1976 tare da ContiCommodity Services, wani reshe na Continental Grain, yana kula da manyan asusun cibiyoyi — ciki har da Campbell Soup, Godiva Chocolate da Homestake Mining. A 1980 ya kafa kamfaninsa Factor LLC, yana cinikin jarinsa kuma yana gudanar da bincike ga cibiyoyi ciki har da Commodities Corporation ta Princeton, wadda a lokacin tana ɗaya daga cikin manyan gidajen ciniki a duniya. Ya buga Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns a 1990 da Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader (Wiley) a 2011, wanda ya kasance littafin ciniki mafi matsayi a Amazon har mako 27. A 2011 shafin The Big Picture na Barry Ritholtz ya lissafa shi cikin mutane 30 mafi tasiri a harkar kuɗi.

Sunansa a kirifto ya dogara ne kan kira ɗaya shahararre: a cewar Cointelegraph, a Disamba 2017 ya “correctly called the top of Bitcoin 'within a day' and predicted an 80% correction, a forecast that eventuated over the following 12 months”. Yana da gaskiya ta musamman cewa wannan tsira ce ta ƙididdiga, ba annabci ba. Lokacin da Cointelegraph ya tambaye shi a Yuli 2025 ya ce: “I'll take credit for that call, but I'll take credit for the bad calls too, because I'm making those bad calls”. A wannan hira ɗaya ya yi jayayya cewa “anyone that looks at the charts and tries to tell you where anything is going is actually just kind of fooling themselves”, kuma ribarsa ita ce daidaiton haɗari da riba, ba daidaito ba: “Give me a point where I can risk $1 and possibly make four, then I don't care whether I'm only right half the time or not”.

Wannan tsarin yana da muhimmanci wajen karanta taswirorin da ke ƙasa. Brandt yana buga yiwuwa kuma yana barin su da sauri, don haka rubutu ɗaya hoto ne na matsayi, ba ra'ayi da zai kare ba. Har ila yau shi mai sayar da bincike ne da ake biya — The Factor Report biyan kuɗi ne na $347 a shekara — kuma yana cinikin kuɗinsa a kasuwannin da yake zanawa, abin da yake faɗa a fili (“I bought the breakout for better or worse”).

Sources: x.com/PeterLBrandt · peterlbrandt.com · Cointelegraph Magazine · Bitcoin.com News

Salon ciniki & falsafa

Taswira ta gargajiya, haɗari da farko. Brandt yana aiki da ƙa'idar siffofi ta Schabacker da Edwards/Magee — rectangles, wedges, head-and-shoulders, layukan wuya — a kan sandunan mako da wata, kuma yana nacewa cewa “Bitcoin obeys the rules of classical charting (Schabacker, Edwards/Magee) better than most markets”. Ba ya cinikin hasashe; yana cinikin ɓarkewa, da stop, kuma da girman matsayi da ke riba ko da daidaito na kashi 50 ne kawai. Yana faɗin yiwuwa maimakon maƙasudi (“a 60/40 chance to be resolved to the downside”), yana juyawa ba tare da wata magana ba idan siffa ta cika a ɗaya gefen, kuma yana ɗaukar zagayen halving na shekara huɗu a matsayin tsarin lokaci, ba samfurin farashi ba. Rauninsa shi ne ɗayan fuskar wannan: masu karatu suna karanta rubuce-rubucensa a matsayin alamun shugabanci ba tare da ganin stop ɗinsa ba, don haka yiwuwar da ya fita daga cikinta cikin rana ɗaya tana tsufa a bainar jama'a kamar hasashen da ya gaza.

Tarihin aiki — kiran sa, an zana su a jadawali

Maganganu bakwai na jama'a masu kwanan wata daga Brandt cikin tagar farashi ta CoinGecko (30 Jan – 27 Agu 2026), an zana su kan farashin gaske. Biyar sun fito daga rubuce-rubucensa na X, an ɗauko su da x_capture.py don haka rubutu da kwanan wata na rubutun ne da kansa; biyu kuma kalmomi ne kai tsaye da aka tabbatar a shafin labarin da aka haɗa. Wannan samfurin 2026 ne mai gudana, ba maki na duk aiki ba — shahararren kiransa na ƙololuwar Disamba 2017 da ƙasan 2018 suna shekaru a wajen kowace tagar zanawa kuma an bayyana su a sashen tarihi. Karanta shi tare da ƙa'idarsa a zuciya: yana auna girman matsayi don daidaito na kashi 50, don haka katin “ya juya ba daidai ba” a nan yana nufin rubutun jama'a ya tsufa mummuna, ba cewa cinikin ya yi asara ba.

Sakamakon karatunmu ne na shugabancin da ya bayyana kan farashin gaske na CoinGecko, ba nasa maki ba. Brandt a fili yana gabatar da rubuce-rubuce a matsayin yiwuwa ba hasashe ba, kuma yana fita da sauri, don haka jan kati na iya nufin matsayin da ya rufe a mako guda — ba mu ganin stop ɗinsa. Makin gajeren zango na iya juyawa yayin da zagayen ke warwarewa; kwanan ƙasansa na 4 Oktoba 2026 bai riga ya zo ba.

Yadda yake samun kuɗi — da inda rikice-rikice suke

Brandt mai sayar da bincike ne da ake biya wanda kuma yake cinikin jarinsa — tsari mafi tsafta fiye da haɓaka token, amma yana nufin rubuce-rubucen kyauta bakin famfon biyan kuɗi ne, kuma yana da matsayi a cikin abin da yake zanawa.

Ra'ayoyi na musamman

Karin magana daga bidiyoyin sa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.

Dakin karatu na abun ciki

Brandt mutumin X ne da wasiƙar labarai, ba YouTuber ba — tashar sa da kanta tana shiru tun Fabrairu 2024, kuma duk abin da ya fitar a 2026 yana kan X da hirar podcast. Bidiyon da ke ƙasa nasa ne da aka ɗora tare da hira mai tsawo; suna da amfani ga hanyar, ba ga kiran yanzu ba:

Peter Brandt Public Webinar November 2023 — Market Review and Q&ACikakken zagaye kan matsayinsa mai gudana — mafi kyawun kallo kan yadda yake auna girman matsayi da sarrafa haɗari da gaske.28 Nov 2023$BTC #Bitcoin Long Form Interview — Peter L BrandtHira mai tsawo kan Bitcoin da taswira ta gargajiya, an yi rikodinta cikin zurfin kasuwar faɗuwa da ta wuce.20 Jul 2022Peter Brandt quick 2020 in review and 2021 look forward in BitcoinTsarinsa na shekara kan Bitcoin — yana da kyau a kwatanta shi da yadda 2021 ya ƙare da gaske.04 Jan 2021Classical Charting Principles That Really MatterƘa'idar siffofi da har yanzu yake amfani da ita ga Bitcoin, an koyar da ita daga tushe.05 Nov 2015

Yana yawan bayyana tare da

Brandt shi ne sandan tsohuwar makaranta na nazarin kirifto — tsohon soja na futures da masu on-chain da macro ke kira don duba taswira. Taswirar da'irorin da yake shiga; hanyoyin fayil ɗin suna haɗuwa yayin da bayanan ke girma.

Amsoshi kai tsaye

Nawa kake ciniki kamar shi?

Brandt yana cinikin siffofi da stop, ba hasashe da maƙasudi ba — kuma ba ya damuwa da yin kuskure rabin lokaci. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.

Nazari na bayanai da ilimi bisa kayan jama'a kawai — rubuce-rubucensa masu kwanan wata a X da rahotannin ɓangare na uku masu kwanan wata, an haɗa su a kowane kira. Ba shawara ce ta kuɗi ko saka jari ba. Lambobin kusan ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Peter? Gabatar da gyara →

An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 27 August 2026