Matt Hougan

@Matt_Hougan

CIO na Bitwise Asset ManagementWeekly CIO Memo tun 2018Marubucin haɗin gwiwa na jagorori 2 na CFA Institute

Mai sanye da kwat a cikin ɗakin. Hougan yana jagorantar dabarun saka hannun jari a Bitwise, ɗaya daga cikin manyan kamfanonin sarrafa kadarorin crypto, kuma yana wallafa takarda ta mako-mako mai sa hannu da kwanan wata — abin da ya sa ya zama ɗaya daga cikin ƴan manyan muryoyin crypto waɗanda za a iya bincika tarihinsu layi-layi. An rubuta hasashensa, an sa musu kwanan wata, kuma lokaci-lokaci yakan janye su a fili.

A taƙaice. Matt Hougan shi ne Babban Jami'in Saka Hannun Jari na Bitwise Asset Management kuma marubucin Weekly CIO Memo na kamfanin — wata wasiƙar kasuwa mai kwanan wata da sa hannu wadda ta sa tunaninsa ya zama mai sauƙin dubawa ba kamar yadda aka saba ba. Ya shigo crypto daga duniyar ETF, inda ya kasance Shugaban ETF.com da Inside ETFs, kuma har yanzu yana muhawwara kamar mai rarraba jari: lissafin kasuwar ajiyar daraja, kwararar kuɗin cibiyoyi, ƙa'idoji da teburin alaƙa maimakon siffofin chart. Abin da ya bayyana tarihinsa na 2026 shi ne wani juyi: a ƙarshen Afrilu yana tsammanin sayen bitcoin da Strategy ke yi ta hanyar STRC zai ci gaba da ɗaukaka kasuwa, sai ga shi a 1 ga Yuli ya rubuta cewa waɗannan kwanaki sun ƙare kuma kasuwa na kai ƙasa — ranar da bitcoin ya kai ƙasa da gaske.

Tarihi — daga ETF.com zuwa takardar Bitwise

Hougan ya gina aikinsa na farko a kan tushen masana'antar ETF. A matsayin Shugaban ETF.com da Inside ETFs ya taimaka wajen ƙirƙirar tsarin bayanai, ƙima da rarrabuwar ETF na farko, shafin yaɗa labarai na gaba a fannin, da kuma babban taron ETF mafi girma a duniya, kafin ya jagoranci sayar da wannan kasuwanci ga FactSet, BATS da Informa tsakanin 2015–2016. Shi ne marubucin haɗin gwiwa na littattafai biyu na CFA Institute Research Foundation — A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds da Cryptoassets: The Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Cryptocurrency for Investment Professionals — kuma ya kasance memba na Barron's ETF Roundtable sau uku.

Ya koma crypto cikakken lokaci a shekarar 2018 (takardunsa da kansu sun sa kwanan watan daidai) kuma yanzu shi ne CIO a Bitwise, baƙo na yau da kullum a CNBC da Bloomberg, kuma marubucin takardar mako-mako da aka gina wannan fayil a kai. Tarihin yana yanke ta bangarori biyu. Hasashen Bitwise na 2025 — bitcoin sama da $200,000, ether $7,000, Solana $750 — duk sun yi kuskure sosai; BTC ya kai ƙololuwa kusa da $126,000 sannan ETH da SOL sun ƙare shekara nesa ƙasa da burin. Abin yabo shi ne cewa Bitwise yana wallafa katin sakamakon rabin shekara nasa yana ba da maki ga waɗannan kurakurai. Hasashensa na dogon lokaci na dala miliyan 1 ga bitcoin (da nau'in dala miliyan 1.3 nan da 2035) muhawara ce ta shekaru 10 wadda wannan chart ba zai iya yanke hukunci a kai ta kowace hanya ba.

Sources: experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos · CNBC & Bloomberg appearances · dated third-party coverage

Salon ciniki & falsafa

Ƙwaƙwalwar mai rarraba jari, ba ta mai duban chart ba. Hougan yana auna bitcoin ta hanyar tambaya game da girman kasuwar ajiyar daraja da kuma rabon da BTC zai samu a cikinta — hasashensa na dala miliyan ɗaya shi ne ainihin wannan lissafi (kasuwa mai kusan tiriliyan 121 a cikin shekaru goma, bitcoin ya mallaki kashi 17%). Mako bayan mako yana bibiyar abin da cibiyoyi ke mayar da martani a kai: kwararar ETF, fitar da basussukan Baitulmali da matsin lamba na kuɗi, damar Clarity Act a Polymarket, da kuma wanene ainihin mai sayen bitcoin na ƙarshe. Kusan ba ya taɓa bayar da matakin farashi mai kunci ko wurin tsayawa; yana bayar da karatun yanayin kasuwa tare da lokacin da aka haɗa da shi. Wannan ita ce ƙarfinsa — hasashensa na ƙasa hasashen yanayi ne kuma ya kusa zama cikakke — kuma ita ce raunin sa: idan ya yi kuskure, kamar a kan STRC a watan Afrilu, takardar tana gaya maka cewa labarin ba daidai ba ne amma ba ta taɓa gaya maka inda za ka fita ba.

Tarihin hasashe — kiransa, a jadawali

Matsayi tara masu kwanan wata, kowanne an ɗauko shi daga Weekly CIO Memo da aka wallafa ƙarƙashin sa hannun Hougan da kansa kuma an auna shi da ainihin farashi. Tun da yana rubuta takarda ɗaya a kowane mako da kwanan wata, wannan ya fi kama da cikakken tarihin lokacin fiye da zaɓaɓɓun nasarori — hasashen Afrilu game da STRC wanda ya juya masa yana nan gefen hasashen ƙasa na Yuli wanda ya yi daidai. Ku lura da matsalar lokaci: manyan ra'ayoyinsa (bitcoin dala miliyan ɗaya, buri na 2035) da'awoyi ne na shekaru goma, waɗanda chart na watanni bakwai ke rubutawa a matsayin a buɗe, ba a matsayin nasara ba.

Sakamakon shi ne yadda muka karanta matsayin da ya bayyana idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashi, ba nasa ƙididdigar ba. An tabbatar da kowace magana kalma-kalma a kan takardar da aka haɗa kafin wallafawa. Takardun CIO Memo guda biyu na wannan lokaci abokan aikinsa ne suka rubuta (André Dragosch, Ryan Rasmussen) kuma da gangan aka cire su — duba bayanan da ke cikin tarin mu. Alamomin gajeren lokaci na iya juyawa yayin da zagayen ke warwarewa.

Yadda yake samun kuɗi — da inda rikicin buƙatu yake

Hougan ba mai tasiri ba ne da ke sayar da rukunin sigina — shi ne Babban Jami'in Saka Hannun Jari na kamfanin sarrafa kadara, kuma wannan tushe ne mai sauƙin karantawa amma ba tsaka-tsaki ba. Ana biyansa don gudanar da asusun crypto, don haka matsayi mai kyakkyawan fata shi ma kayan sayarwarsa ne.

Ra'ayoyinsa na musamman

An ɗauko kalmomin daga majiyoyinsa na jama'a; ra'ayoyin da ya bayyana ne, ba shawara ba.

Ɗakin karatun abubuwan da ya wallafa

Babu ɗakin bidiyo da za a haɗa — Hougan ba shi da tashar kansa kuma ba shi da podcast na kansa. Babban abin da yake fitarwa shi ne Weekly CIO Memo a rubuce, mai kwanan wata da sa hannu, kuma bayyanarsa ta bidiyo shirye-shiryen wasu ne (CNBC, Bloomberg) waɗanda shafukansu ba su ɗauke da rubutaccen magana da za a iya ambata. Wannan ne ainihin dalilin da ya sa aka gina wannan fayil haka: kowane ɗaya daga cikin hasashe tara da ke sama yana haɗawa da takarda da aka wallafa ƙarƙashin sunansa, tare da jumlar da aka ambata wadda aka tabbatar kalma-kalma a wannan shafi. Fitowar da aka zana su ne “Why Investors Can’t Hear Wall Street’s Crypto Song” (24 Fab), “How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million” (10 Mar), “Why Bitcoin Rallies on Geopolitical Uncertainty” (13 Afr), “Bitcoin’s Latest Rally: Brought to You by STRC” (28 Afr), “Crypto Becomes a Contrarian Bet” (2 Yun), “Has the Crypto Market Bottomed?” (15 Yun), “STRC, MSTR, and End-of-Cycle Dynamics” (1 Yul), “What To Expect if Clarity Fails This Week” (4 Agu) da “Bessent, Bonds, and Bitcoin” (25 Agu).

Amsoshi kai tsaye

Har zuwa yaya kake ciniki kamarsa?

Hougan yana muhawwara daga girman kasuwa, kwarara da manufofi maimakon daga kyandirori — kuma yana rubuta shi da kwanan wata. Yaya kusa tunaninka yake? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.

Nazari na bayanai da ilimi wanda ya dogara kacokan a kan kayan da jama'a ke iya samu — a wannan yanayin, takardun Weekly CIO Memo na Bitwise masu kwanan wata da sa hannu, waɗanda aka haɗa a kowane hasashe. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko saka hannun jari ba ce. Lambobin kusan-kusan ne kuma suna canzawa kullum. Spotted an error, or are you Matt? Aika gyara →

Asusun da aka tabbatar · An ambaci majiyoyi a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 16 September 2026