@ki_young_ju
The on-chain analyst who runs the data terminal half the market quotes — and who changes his mind in public, loudly, with a timestamp. Inside thirteen weeks in 2026 he called an 18-month bear market, told holders relief was coming, then declared the bear cycle over. The relief call paid, the bear call has since gone against him, and the all-clear is still running. He is worth tracking anyway, because he leaves the whole record standing — including the parts that make him look bad.
A taƙaice. Ki Young Ju ya haɗa kafa CryptoQuant a 2019 kuma ya mai da ita ɗaya daga cikin masu samar da bayanan on-chain da aka fi ambata a fannin crypto. Nazarinsa na jama'a ya dogara ne kan ra'ayi guda: Realized Cap — nawa ne kuɗi na gaske suka shiga Bitcoin — a auna shi da ƙimar kasuwa domin bambanta kasuwar bull da ta bear. Wannan ruwan tabarau ya sa ya gano Terra-Luna da FTX da wuri. Shi ne kuma ya sa yake juyar da ra'ayinsa akai-akai a bainar jama'a, mafi shahara a 2025 lokacin da ya ayyana ƙarshen zagayen bull, ya nemi afuwa bayan makonni bakwai, sannan ya kalli Bitcoin na hawa sabon matsayi. Wannan tsari ya sake bayyana a 2026: kasuwar bear har 2027 a ranar 29 ga Mayu, sannan «The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.» a 25 ga Agusta. Ba mai kiran matakan farashi ba ne — mai kiran yanayin kasuwa ne, kuma yanayin yana juyawa.
An haife shi a 1992 kuma ya yi karatu a Pohang University of Science and Technology, Ki ya yi aiki a matsayin injiniyan software kafin ya kafa rukunin bincike na blockchain na Koriya Planet B a 2018 sannan ya haɗa kafa CryptoQuant tare da abokan karatunsa a Afrilu 2019. Kamfanin yana sayar da bayanan on-chain da na gudanar kuɗi na musaya ga asusun zuba jari da 'yan kasuwa — jaridar Chosun Daily ta Koriya ta Kudu ta kira shi «Bloomberg na crypto» — kuma a Yuli 2022 ya zama mai samar da bayanai ga CME Group. An gina martabar CryptoQuant kan gargaɗi biyu na farko: gudanar Bitcoin da ba a saba gani ba kafin durƙushewar Terra-Luna a Mayu 2022, sannan daga baya siginoni game da FTX.
Hanyarsa ta jama'a kunkuntar ce da gangan. Realized Cap yana ɗaukar tsabar da ta shiga walat a matsayin saye da wadda ta fita a matsayin sayarwa, yana ba da kiyasin jarin da aka zuba a Bitcoin da gaske; kwatanta shi da ƙimar kasuwa yana gaya masa ko sabbin kuɗi suna motsa farashi. Idan manyan shigowar kuɗi ba su ɗaga farashi ba, yana kiran hakan bear. Idan ƙananan shigowa suka ɗaga shi sosai, yana kiran hakan bull. Tsari ne mai tsafta, kuma yana haifar da kiraye-kirayen yanayi masu ƙarfin gwiwa.
Haka kuma yana haifar da juye-juye, kuma Ki ba ya ɓoye su. A 17 ga Maris 2025 ya rubuta «#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action», ya faɗaɗa shi zuwa dogon zare kan Realized Cap a 5 ga Afrilu, sannan a 9 ga Mayu 2025 ya rubuta: «Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… I apologize for the incorrect prediction.» Bitcoin ya kai sabon matsayi mafi girma a tarihi a watan Oktoba — kafafen labarai sun sanya kololuwar a kusan $126K. Wannan kuskuren yana wajen tagar farashi da aka zana a ƙasa, amma yana cikin tarihi; kuma furucin 2026 ya nuna irin wannan hali: a 1 ga Fabrairu 2026 ya rubuta cewa «this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation», a 29 ga Mayu ya tsawaita kasuwar bear zuwa farkon 2027, kuma zuwa 21–25 ga Agusta ya riga ya kira ƙasa da ƙarshen zagayen bear. Ka karanta shi a matsayin ra'ayi mai kayan aiki mai kyau wanda ke sabuntawa da sauri — ba hasashen da za ka riƙe shi a kai ba.
Sources: x.com/ki_young_ju · cryptoquant.com · Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com News coverage
Yanayin on-chain, ba matakan farashi ba. Ki kusan ba ya taɓa buga wata manufa ta farashi. Yana buga yanayin kasuwa — bull, bear, a gefe, an kai ƙasa — wanda ya samo daga Realized Cap idan aka kwatanta da ƙimar kasuwa, riba/asara ta masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci, ma'aunin Bull/Bear Market Cycle (an gina shi daga MVRV, NUPL da SOPR idan aka auna da matsakaicinsu na kwanaki 365), da bayanan gudanar kuɗi na musaya da ETF. Ƙarfinsa shi ne cewa waɗannan da'awa ana iya ƙaryata su, suna da kwanan wata, kuma sun dogara kan bayanai na gaske ba tsammani ba. Rauninsa shi ne lokaci: siginar yanayi na iya zama daidai a tsari amma ta zo makonni shida da wuri ko da jinkiri, kuma tarihinsa ya nuna zai juya kiran yanayin cikin makonni goma sha biyu da zarar bayanan sun juya.
Bullish — he called the bottom on 21 August and declared the bear cycle over on 25 August, and has pressed further since: on 21 September he pointed to BTC reclaiming its 365-day average at $83K as the end-of-bear line, the next day posted “Bitcoin bull run just started, but no one cares.”, and on 23 September published the analysts' STRONG BUY consensus for Ethereum. He has also tempered the upside — a 3–5x cycle, not another 10x parabola. It is all a reversal of the bear-into-2027 stance he held in May, so treat the bias as live and revisable rather than settled.
Twelve dated, in-window statements — eleven of them his own X posts, one a quote confirmed on Bitcoin.com News — charted against real price. He is a regime caller, so we judge each one on what price actually did next rather than on a level being hit. The sample is deliberately unflattering in places: it opens with an on-chain all-clear posted 37% above the summer low. For the record beyond this chart window, his headline 2025 call — “#Bitcoin bull cycle is over”, March 2025 — was wrong enough that he publicly apologised for it seven weeks later.
“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.”
An on-chain all-clear — not a target, but a published read that forced selling had stopped. It went out at $80,482, and what came next was the opposite of relief: BTC fell −27.2% to $58,566 by 1 July. Until 22 September no close since had been even 1% above it; that day BTC reached $86,597 (+7.6%), and it is +5.4% today. Four months mostly underwater after an all-clear is still a miss. The indicator was doing what it says on the tin; as a signal of what came next it failed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
The mechanism — profit-taking cascades drag investor PnL for ~18 months — was right for five weeks: BTC fell −20.5% from $73,652 to the $58,566 low. Then it wasn't. He abandoned the thesis himself on 25 August, roughly five months before his own deadline, and on 21 September described BTC's reclaim of its 365-day average as the line everyone watches for the end of the bear. BTC has since closed as high as $86,597 (+17.6%) and is +15.1% today. Early 2027 has not arrived, but the caller has withdrawn the call and price has gone the other way, so we now log it against — changed from open on 4 October.
𝕏 Post“…the bear market could last until early 2027.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways.”
In a long thread telling @saylor to pause buying, he argued Strategy's bid was “more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst” and that weak hands had not been flushed. From $62,662 the flush never came: the deepest close after it was −6.5%, and BTC then ran +38.2% to $86,597. It is +35.3% today. The recovery he said needed a reset happened without one.
𝕏 Post“The market may need a proper reset…” — @ki_young_ju on Strategy's BTC buying↗ x.com“If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.”
Timing this well is rare: $58,566 is the lowest daily close in the entire window, and BTC has not closed below it since — +44.8% to today, +47.9% at the high. But read the call, not the chart. It is conditional on Bitcoin absorbing $1T+ in realized cap, we have seen no evidence that it has, and $84,793 is not a parabola. On 22 September he narrowed it himself, saying he expects this cycle to deliver “3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally”. Structurally “still early, not invalidated” — so, open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
A soft call with a hard shape: relief is coming, but not yet. Both halves landed. From $63,193 the deepest close after was only −1.4%, and the relief arrived well inside “the next few months” — BTC has since run +37.0% to $86,597 and is +34.2% today. Note he framed it as a bear-market bounce, not a trend change; the trend change is what he claimed six weeks later.
SourceCryptoquant CEO Tells Bitcoin Holders to “Hang in There” — Bitcoin.com News↗ news.bitcoin.com“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.”
Called into strength at $73,021 — the risky way to call a bottom — and it has held: not one daily close below that price since, +18.6% at the high and +16.1% today. He hedged with “might see a dip”; the deepest close since was $75,590, still above his call. The obvious caveat is that this is the same analyst who, twelve weeks earlier, put the bear market's end in 2027.
𝕏 Post“Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.”
Four words, posted at $78,974 when CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time since early October. Price dipped −4.3% to $75,590 by 16 September, then broke out: +9.7% at the $86,597 high on 22 September, +7.4% today. On 21 September he posted that BTC had reclaimed its 365-day average at $83K — the line he called the one everyone watches for the end of the bear. Encouraging, but a bear cycle is not proven over in six weeks, and BTC is still well below its 2025 peak — this is open.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.”
Two days after declaring the bear cycle over, he put a shape on what comes next: the top of this cycle gets made by non-US institutional flows, with Korea — no spot ETF, no foreign products for retail, companies locked out of exchanges — as the example of the demand still sitting on the sidelines. It went out at $79,018. Since then the low is $75,590 (−4.3%), the high $86,597 (+9.6%), and BTC is +7.3% today. Nothing in five weeks of price tests a claim about where a cycle peak originates, so it is logged open — but note the assumption underneath it: that this bull cycle has a peak still ahead of it.
𝕏 Post“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY”
Four words and a chart. Read it precisely: he is publishing the analyst-sentiment gauge, not his own target — but it is a bullish signal posted under his name. From $79,093 it cost money first, −4.4% to $75,590 on 16 September, then paid: +9.5% to the $86,597 high on 22 September and +7.2% today. A buy signal that is up within four weeks has done its job, so we now log it played out — changed from open on 4 October. Whether the regime behind it holds is what his 25 August call is for.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin analysts' consensus: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“BTC reclaimed the 365MA at $83K and is sitting above $84K. That's the line everyone's been watching for the end of the bear. If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.”
A level and a condition: the 365-day moving average at $83K, and if it holds, FOMO follows. Posted at 09:36 UTC, when by his own account BTC was already above $84K; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $81,169, so read the +4.5% to today with that head start in mind. The line has held: the lowest daily close since is $83,479. The FOMO is less clear — BTC closed at $86,597 (+6.7%) the next day and has drifted sideways below it since, at $84,793 today. Held, not yet chased: open.
𝕏 Post“If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.”
His most specific cycle call yet, in a long post arguing that institutional ownership now damps both extremes: a 3–5x bull cycle instead of a 10x+ parabola, and a milder bear market after it. The post gives no base price and no date for the 3–5x, so there is no level to grade yet. It went out on the day of the window's highest close, $86,597; BTC has since closed as low as $83,479 (−3.6%) and is −2.1% today. A claim about the shape of a multi-year cycle cannot be settled in twelve days — open. It also narrows his 1 July talk of “another parabolic bull run”.
𝕏 Post“3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY”
The same CryptoQuant analyst-consensus gauge as his 8 September Bitcoin post, this time for Ethereum — a published sentiment reading, not his own target, but posted under his name. It went out at 08:44 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $2,753, which has turned out to be ETH's highest close since. The low is $2,668 (−3.1%) and ETH is −2.2% today. Eleven days in, it has not paid — open.
𝕏 Post“Analyst consensus on Ethereum: STRONG BUY” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is verbatim from the linked X post or article. Fresh calls can flip as the cycle resolves — the newest call here, 23 September, has eleven days of data behind it and is logged open for exactly that reason.
Abubuwan da ke motsa shi a bayyane suke ta hanya da ba a saba gani ba: yana sayar da bayanai, ba sigina ba. Wannan ya kawar da matsalar tallata token, amma ya kawo wata — kayan CryptoQuant shi ne nazarin on-chain, kuma rubuce-rubucensa na jama'a su ne tagar kantin.
Kasuwancin tashar bayanai ce da ake biya — nazarin on-chain da na gudanar kuɗi na musaya da ake sayarwa ga asusun zuba jari, teburan ciniki da ƙananan 'yan kasuwa a shirye-shiryen matakai. Nazarinsa na kyauta a X shi ne hanyar tallata wannan samfurin, wanda ya fi tsafta fiye da ƙungiyoyin biya amma har yanzu wata maslaha ce.
CryptoQuant yana samar da bayanan on-chain ta kasuwanci, ciki har da yarjejeniyar samarwa da CME Group da aka sanya hannu a Yuli 2022. Rarrabawa ga cibiyoyi tana ba da lada ga wanda aka fi ambata, kuma hakan yana ƙarfafa da'awa masu ƙarfi da ake iya ambata.
Ribarsa tana cikin kamfanin da ya haɗa kafa, ba wani littafin ciniki da yake bugawa ba. Ba ya gudanar da sabis na sigina kuma ba ya tallata token — don haka idan ya juya kiran yanayi, babu wani sabunta biyan kuɗi da ke rataye da wannan juyin.
“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
29 May 2026 · agogon bear da daga baya ya watsar“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
10 Jul 2026 · wanda ya tabbata, kuma da wuri“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.”
09 May 2025 · gyaran a fili — a wajen wannan taga, amma yana cikin tarihiAn ɗauko maganganun daga majiya nasa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da ya bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Babu ɗakin karatun bidiyo da za a haɗa. Ki ba ya yin podcast kuma ba shi da tashar tasa — abin da yake fitarwa ga jama'a rubuce-rubucen X ne da rubuce-rubucen bincike na CryptoQuant; sauran duk hirarraki ne na wasu. Shi ya sa kowane furuci a sama ambato ne mai kwanan wata da hanyar haɗi, ba yanki na bidiyo ba.
Wanda ya haɗa kafa kuma shugaban CryptoQuant, kamfanin bayanan on-chain na Koriya ta Kudu da aka kafa a 2019 wanda ke sayar da nazarin blockchain da na gudanar kuɗi na musaya ga asusun zuba jari da 'yan kasuwa. Yana ɗaya daga cikin masanan nazarin on-chain da aka fi ambata a crypto, kuma yana buga karatun kasuwar Bitcoin ga kusan mabiya 434,000 a X.
Ba a tabbatar da ita a fili ba. Dukiyarsa tana daure da rabonsa a CryptoQuant, kamfani mai zaman kansa da ba ya buga bayanan kuɗi. Ka yi watsi da duk wata lamba takamaimai da ka gani — babu wadda aka tabbatar.
Yes, and he says so himself. In March 2025 he declared the bull cycle over; on 9 May 2025 he posted “Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong” and apologised. Bitcoin then made a new all-time high. In 2026 he called a bear market lasting into early 2027 on 29 May, then declared the bear cycle over on 25 August. Of the twelve dated 2026 calls charted above, three played out, six are still open and three went against him.
Realized Cap — kiyasin on-chain na yawan jarin gaske da ya shiga Bitcoin — idan aka kwatanta da ƙimar kasuwa, tare da riba/asara ta masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci, gudanar kuɗi na musaya da ETF, da ma'aunin Bull/Bear Market Cycle na CryptoQuant. Yana kiran yanayin kasuwa (bull, bear, an kai ƙasa) maimakon matakan farashi ko manufofi.
Ki yana sauya ra'ayinsa idan bayanai sun sauya, kuma yana ɗaukar illar martabarsa a fili. Har ina hankalinka ya yi kama da nasa — auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Ko ta yaya, gwajin da kaɗai zai warware hakan shi ne tarihinka. Yi ciniki da bayanan kasuwa na gaske — ba tare da jarin da ke cikin haɗari ba — a gasar BuyCrypt ta kyauta mai kyautuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayarwa da ilimantarwa wanda ya dogara kaɗai kan kayan da ake samu a fili — rubuce-rubucensa masu kwanan wata a X da rahotannin wasu masu kwanan wata, an haɗa su a kowane furuci. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko zuba jari ba ce. Lambobi kimanin ne kuma suna canjawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Ki? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 4 October 2026
