@ki_young_ju
Masanin nazarin on-chain da ke gudanar da tashar bayanan da rabin kasuwa ke ambata — kuma wanda ke sauya ra'ayinsa a fili, da ƙarfi, tare da lokacin da aka rubuta shi. Cikin makonni goma sha uku a 2026 ya ayyana kasuwar bear ta wata 18, ya gaya wa masu riƙe da Bitcoin cewa sauƙi na tafe, sannan ya sanar da cewa zagayen bear ya ƙare. Har yanzu na tsakiya kaɗai ya biya. Duk da haka yana da kyau a bi shi, saboda yana barin cikakken tarihinsa a tsaye — har da sassan da suke nuna shi cikin mummunan haske.
A taƙaice. Ki Young Ju ya haɗa kafa CryptoQuant a 2019 kuma ya mai da ita ɗaya daga cikin masu samar da bayanan on-chain da aka fi ambata a fannin crypto. Nazarinsa na jama'a ya dogara ne kan ra'ayi guda: Realized Cap — nawa ne kuɗi na gaske suka shiga Bitcoin — a auna shi da ƙimar kasuwa domin bambanta kasuwar bull da ta bear. Wannan ruwan tabarau ya sa ya gano Terra-Luna da FTX da wuri. Shi ne kuma ya sa yake juyar da ra'ayinsa akai-akai a bainar jama'a, mafi shahara a 2025 lokacin da ya ayyana ƙarshen zagayen bull, ya nemi afuwa bayan makonni bakwai, sannan ya kalli Bitcoin na hawa sabon matsayi. Wannan tsari ya sake bayyana a 2026: kasuwar bear har 2027 a ranar 29 ga Mayu, sannan «The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.» a 25 ga Agusta. Ba mai kiran matakan farashi ba ne — mai kiran yanayin kasuwa ne, kuma yanayin yana juyawa.
An haife shi a 1992 kuma ya yi karatu a Pohang University of Science and Technology, Ki ya yi aiki a matsayin injiniyan software kafin ya kafa rukunin bincike na blockchain na Koriya Planet B a 2018 sannan ya haɗa kafa CryptoQuant tare da abokan karatunsa a Afrilu 2019. Kamfanin yana sayar da bayanan on-chain da na gudanar kuɗi na musaya ga asusun zuba jari da 'yan kasuwa — jaridar Chosun Daily ta Koriya ta Kudu ta kira shi «Bloomberg na crypto» — kuma a Yuli 2022 ya zama mai samar da bayanai ga CME Group. An gina martabar CryptoQuant kan gargaɗi biyu na farko: gudanar Bitcoin da ba a saba gani ba kafin durƙushewar Terra-Luna a Mayu 2022, sannan daga baya siginoni game da FTX.
Hanyarsa ta jama'a kunkuntar ce da gangan. Realized Cap yana ɗaukar tsabar da ta shiga walat a matsayin saye da wadda ta fita a matsayin sayarwa, yana ba da kiyasin jarin da aka zuba a Bitcoin da gaske; kwatanta shi da ƙimar kasuwa yana gaya masa ko sabbin kuɗi suna motsa farashi. Idan manyan shigowar kuɗi ba su ɗaga farashi ba, yana kiran hakan bear. Idan ƙananan shigowa suka ɗaga shi sosai, yana kiran hakan bull. Tsari ne mai tsafta, kuma yana haifar da kiraye-kirayen yanayi masu ƙarfin gwiwa.
Haka kuma yana haifar da juye-juye, kuma Ki ba ya ɓoye su. A 17 ga Maris 2025 ya rubuta «#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action», ya faɗaɗa shi zuwa dogon zare kan Realized Cap a 5 ga Afrilu, sannan a 9 ga Mayu 2025 ya rubuta: «Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong… I apologize for the incorrect prediction.» Bitcoin ya kai sabon matsayi mafi girma a tarihi a watan Oktoba — kafafen labarai sun sanya kololuwar a kusan $126K. Wannan kuskuren yana wajen tagar farashi da aka zana a ƙasa, amma yana cikin tarihi; kuma furucin 2026 ya nuna irin wannan hali: a 1 ga Fabrairu 2026 ya rubuta cewa «this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation», a 29 ga Mayu ya tsawaita kasuwar bear zuwa farkon 2027, kuma zuwa 21–25 ga Agusta ya riga ya kira ƙasa da ƙarshen zagayen bear. Ka karanta shi a matsayin ra'ayi mai kayan aiki mai kyau wanda ke sabuntawa da sauri — ba hasashen da za ka riƙe shi a kai ba.
Sources: x.com/ki_young_ju · cryptoquant.com · Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com News coverage
Yanayin on-chain, ba matakan farashi ba. Ki kusan ba ya taɓa buga wata manufa ta farashi. Yana buga yanayin kasuwa — bull, bear, a gefe, an kai ƙasa — wanda ya samo daga Realized Cap idan aka kwatanta da ƙimar kasuwa, riba/asara ta masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci, ma'aunin Bull/Bear Market Cycle (an gina shi daga MVRV, NUPL da SOPR idan aka auna da matsakaicinsu na kwanaki 365), da bayanan gudanar kuɗi na musaya da ETF. Ƙarfinsa shi ne cewa waɗannan da'awa ana iya ƙaryata su, suna da kwanan wata, kuma sun dogara kan bayanai na gaske ba tsammani ba. Rauninsa shi ne lokaci: siginar yanayi na iya zama daidai a tsari amma ta zo makonni shida da wuri ko da jinkiri, kuma tarihinsa ya nuna zai juya kiran yanayin cikin makonni goma sha biyu da zarar bayanan sun juya.
A yanzu yana gefen bull — ya kira ƙasa a 21 ga Agusta kuma ya ayyana ƙarshen zagayen bear a 25 ga Agusta. Amma wannan sabon juyi ne daga matsayin «bear har 2027» da ya riƙe a Mayu, don haka ka ɗauki wannan nuna son kai a matsayin abu mai rai da ake iya sake dubawa, ba wanda aka kammala ba.
Furuci bakwai masu kwanan wata cikin tagar farashi — shida daga cikinsu rubuce-rubucensa ne a X, ɗaya kuma ambato ne da aka tabbatar a Bitcoin.com News — an zana su kan farashi na gaske. Mai kiran yanayi ne, don haka muna auna kowane furuci bisa abin da farashi ya yi bayan haka, ba bisa isa ga wani mataki ba. Samfurin ba mai yabo ba ne a wasu wurare da gangan: yana buɗewa da siginar on-chain ta «babu haɗari» da aka buga kashi 27 sama da ƙasan bazara. Domin tarihin da ke wajen wannan taga: babban kiransa na 2025 — «#Bitcoin bull cycle is over», Maris 2025 — ya yi kuskure sosai har ya nemi afuwa a bainar jama'a bayan makonni bakwai.
“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.”
Siginar on-chain ta «babu haɗari» — ba manufar farashi ba, sai dai karatun da aka buga cewa tilastawar sayarwa ta tsaya. Ya fito a $80,482, farashi mafi girma cikin dukkan furucin da ke wannan shafi, kuma ya nuna kololuwar samfurin: BTC bai taɓa rufe sama da +0.7% sama da shi ba, sannan ya faɗi −27.2% zuwa $58,566 kafin 1 ga Yuli. A yau yana −3.3%. Ma'aunin yana yin abin da aka rubuta a kansa; a matsayin siginar abin da ke zuwa, ya gaza.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell at a loss.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
Tsarin — igiyar cire riba tana jan PnL na masu zuba jari ƙasa kusan wata 18 — ya yi daidai na makonni biyar: BTC ya faɗi −20.5% daga $73,652 zuwa ƙasan $58,566. Bayan haka kuwa a'a. A yau farashi yana +5.7% sama da furucin, kuma shi da kansa ya yi watsi da ra'ayin a 25 ga Agusta, kusan wata biyar kafin ranar da ya sa wa kansa. Muna rubuta shi a matsayin a buɗe saboda farkon 2027 bai zo ba kuma BTC yana nesa ƙasa da kololuwarsa ta 2025 — amma ba ya sake kare shi.
𝕏 Post“…the bear market could last until early 2027.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The market may need a proper reset before it can build a stronger recovery, rather than continue drifting sideways.”
A dogon zare inda ya shawarci @saylor ya dakatar da saye, ya yi jayayya cewa sayen Strategy «more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst» ne kuma ba a wanke raunanan hannaye ba. Daga $62,662 wannan wankewar ba ta taɓa zuwa ba: rufewa mafi zurfi bayan haka ita ce −6.5%, sannan BTC ya tashi +28.1% zuwa $80,268. A yau yana +24.2%. Farfaɗowar da a ganinsa tana buƙatar sake saiti ta faru ba tare da ɗaya ba.
𝕏 Post“The market may need a proper reset…” — @ki_young_ju on Strategy's BTC buying↗ x.com“If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.”
Irin wannan daidaiton lokaci ba safai ba ne: $58,566 shi ne rufewar yau da kullum mafi ƙanƙanta a duk tagar, kuma BTC bai sake rufewa ƙasa da shi ba tun daga lokacin — +32.9% zuwa yau, +37.1% a kololuwa. Amma ka karanta furucin, ba zanen ba. Yana da sharaɗi: sai Bitcoin ya sha $1T+ a Realized Cap; hakan bai faru ba, kuma $77,841 ba parabola ba ne. A tsari «still early, not invalidated» — don haka, a buɗe.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
Furuci mai laushi amma da siffa mai ƙarfi: sauƙi zai zo, amma ba yanzu ba. Ɓangarorin biyu sun tabbata. Daga $63,193 rufewa mafi zurfi bayan haka ta kasance −1.4% kawai, kuma sauƙin ya zo cikin makonni shida maimakon «the next few months» — +27.0% zuwa $80,268, +23.2% a yau. Ka lura ya gabatar da shi a matsayin tashi cikin kasuwar bear, ba sauyin yanayin kasuwa ba; sauyin yanayin shi ne abin da ya bayyana bayan makonni shida.
SourceCryptoquant CEO Tells Bitcoin Holders to “Hang in There” — Bitcoin.com News↗ news.bitcoin.com“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.”
An kira shi cikin ƙarfi, a $73,021 — hanya mai haɗari ta kiran ƙasa — kuma ya tsaya: babu ko rufewa ɗaya ta yau da kullum ƙasa da wannan farashin tun daga lokacin, +9.9% a kololuwa da +6.6% a yau. Ya kare kansa da «might see a dip»; bisa farashin rufewa babu irin wannan faɗuwar. Gargaɗin bayyananne shi ne: wannan shi ne masanin da makonni goma sha biyu kafin haka ya sanya ƙarshen kasuwar bear a 2027.
𝕏 Post“Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.com“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.”
Kalmomi huɗu, an buga su a $78,974, lokacin da ma'aunin Bull/Bear Market Cycle na CryptoQuant ya juya tabbatacce a karo na farko tun farkon Oktoba. Akwai kwanaki shida na farashi a bayansa: −1.7% ƙasa, +1.6% sama, −1.4% a yau. Ba a tabbatar da komai a kowane gefe ba, kuma BTC har yanzu yana ƙasa sosai da kololuwar 2025 — wannan a buɗe yake, kuma zai ci gaba da haka na watanni.
𝕏 Post“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over.” — @ki_young_ju↗ x.comHukuncin da muke bayarwa fassararmu ce ta matsayin da ya bayyana idan aka auna da farashi na gaske, ba tsarin ba da maki nasa ba. Kowane ambato an ɗauko shi kalma-da-kalma daga rubutun X ko labarin da aka haɗa. Sabbin hukunce-hukunce na iya juyawa yayin da zagayen ke warwarewa — furucin 25 ga Agusta yana da kwanaki shida na bayanai kawai a bayansa, kuma shi ya sa aka rubuta shi a matsayin a buɗe.
Abubuwan da ke motsa shi a bayyane suke ta hanya da ba a saba gani ba: yana sayar da bayanai, ba sigina ba. Wannan ya kawar da matsalar tallata token, amma ya kawo wata — kayan CryptoQuant shi ne nazarin on-chain, kuma rubuce-rubucensa na jama'a su ne tagar kantin.
Kasuwancin tashar bayanai ce da ake biya — nazarin on-chain da na gudanar kuɗi na musaya da ake sayarwa ga asusun zuba jari, teburan ciniki da ƙananan 'yan kasuwa a shirye-shiryen matakai. Nazarinsa na kyauta a X shi ne hanyar tallata wannan samfurin, wanda ya fi tsafta fiye da ƙungiyoyin biya amma har yanzu wata maslaha ce.
CryptoQuant yana samar da bayanan on-chain ta kasuwanci, ciki har da yarjejeniyar samarwa da CME Group da aka sanya hannu a Yuli 2022. Rarrabawa ga cibiyoyi tana ba da lada ga wanda aka fi ambata, kuma hakan yana ƙarfafa da'awa masu ƙarfi da ake iya ambata.
Ribarsa tana cikin kamfanin da ya haɗa kafa, ba wani littafin ciniki da yake bugawa ba. Ba ya gudanar da sabis na sigina kuma ba ya tallata token — don haka idan ya juya kiran yanayi, babu wani sabunta biyan kuɗi da ke rataye da wannan juyin.
“Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
29 May 2026 · agogon bear da daga baya ya watsar“Some bullish Bitcoin opium is coming in the next few months to relieve your bear market pain. Just not yet. Hang in there.”
10 Jul 2026 · wanda ya tabbata, kuma da wuri“Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.”
09 May 2025 · gyaran a fili — a wajen wannan taga, amma yana cikin tarihiAn ɗauko maganganun daga majiya nasa na jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da ya bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Babu ɗakin karatun bidiyo da za a haɗa. Ki ba ya yin podcast kuma ba shi da tashar tasa — abin da yake fitarwa ga jama'a rubuce-rubucen X ne da rubuce-rubucen bincike na CryptoQuant; sauran duk hirarraki ne na wasu. Shi ya sa kowane furuci a sama ambato ne mai kwanan wata da hanyar haɗi, ba yanki na bidiyo ba.
Yana gefen bayanai na fannin crypto, ba gefen teburin ciniki ba, kuma waɗanda aikinsu ya fi kusa da nasa su ne sauran masana nazarin on-chain da na zagaye. Taswirar wannan rukuni — hanyoyin fayiloli na ƙaruwa yayin da bayanan ke girma.
Ɗaya sunan da ke daidai da nazarin Bitcoin na on-chain — bayanai iri ɗaya, sau da yawa karatun yanayi na akasi.
Masanin zagaye na lissafi; inda Ki ke karanta gudanar jari, Cowen yana karanta log-regression da makuntar haɗari.
Tsarin zagayen tattalin arziki da yawan kuɗi wanda ke kai ga kiran yanayi ta hanyar macro maimakon bayanan on-chain.
Ba abokin aiki ba — batu ne. Ki ya kwashe Yuni 2026 yana shawartar Strategy a fili da ta dakatar da sayen Bitcoin.
Wanda ya haɗa kafa kuma shugaban CryptoQuant, kamfanin bayanan on-chain na Koriya ta Kudu da aka kafa a 2019 wanda ke sayar da nazarin blockchain da na gudanar kuɗi na musaya ga asusun zuba jari da 'yan kasuwa. Yana ɗaya daga cikin masanan nazarin on-chain da aka fi ambata a crypto, kuma yana buga karatun kasuwar Bitcoin ga kusan mabiya 434,000 a X.
Ba a tabbatar da ita a fili ba. Dukiyarsa tana daure da rabonsa a CryptoQuant, kamfani mai zaman kansa da ba ya buga bayanan kuɗi. Ka yi watsi da duk wata lamba takamaimai da ka gani — babu wadda aka tabbatar.
Ee, kuma shi da kansa ya faɗi hakan. A Maris 2025 ya ayyana ƙarshen zagayen bull; a 9 ga Mayu 2025 ya buga «Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong» kuma ya nemi afuwa. Bitcoin ya kai sabon matsayi mafi girma a tarihi bayan haka. A 2026 ya kira kasuwar bear har farkon 2027 a 29 ga Mayu, sannan ya ayyana ƙarshen zagayen bear a 25 ga Agusta. Cikin furuci bakwai masu kwanan wata na 2026 da aka zana a sama, biyu sun tabbata, uku suna a buɗe kuma biyu sun juya masa baya.
Realized Cap — kiyasin on-chain na yawan jarin gaske da ya shiga Bitcoin — idan aka kwatanta da ƙimar kasuwa, tare da riba/asara ta masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci, gudanar kuɗi na musaya da ETF, da ma'aunin Bull/Bear Market Cycle na CryptoQuant. Yana kiran yanayin kasuwa (bull, bear, an kai ƙasa) maimakon matakan farashi ko manufofi.
Ki yana sauya ra'ayinsa idan bayanai sun sauya, kuma yana ɗaukar illar martabarsa a fili. Har ina hankalinka ya yi kama da nasa — auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Ko ta yaya, gwajin da kaɗai zai warware hakan shi ne tarihinka. Yi ciniki da bayanan kasuwa na gaske — ba tare da jarin da ke cikin haɗari ba — a gasar BuyCrypt ta kyauta mai kyautuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayarwa da ilimantarwa wanda ya dogara kaɗai kan kayan da ake samu a fili — rubuce-rubucensa masu kwanan wata a X da rahotannin wasu masu kwanan wata, an haɗa su a kowane furuci. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko zuba jari ba ce. Lambobi kimanin ne kuma suna canjawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Ki? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 31 August 2026
