Jurrien Timmer

@TimmerFidelity

~222K a XDaraktan Global Macro a FidelityA Fidelity tun 1995

Masanin power-law na Fidelity. Timmer ne ke jagorantar sashen global macro a rukunin rarraba kadarori na Fidelity, kuma kusan kowane mako yana wallafa taswirorin Bitcoin ɗinsa a X — lanƙwasa da aka daidaita ta cikin kowane zagaye tun 2015, layin tallafi a ƙarƙashinsa, da ma'aunin zinariya a gefensa. Saboda yana wallafa matakai masu kwanan wata, ana iya tantance tarihin hasashensa.

A taƙaice. Jurrien Timmer shi ne Daraktan Global Macro a Fidelity Investments, inda yake aiki tun 1995, kuma shi Chartered Market Technician ne. Tsarinsa na Bitcoin shi ne samfurin power-law — layin yanayi mai lanƙwasar tallafi a ƙarƙashinsa wadda ta kama kowane babban ƙasa tun 2015 — wanda yake karantawa tare da ma'aunin Bitcoin da zinariya da kuma zagayen shekaru huɗu. A 2026 ya ci gaba da nuna $60k a matsayin ƙasan farashi a duk lokacin sanyi, ya kira yankin Yuli yankin tarawa kafin ƙasan ya zo, kuma zuwa ƙarshen Satumba ya ce sabuwar kasuwar bull ta zagaye ta fara, da burin $100k sannan $300k zuwa 2029. Ƙungiyar tallafinsa ta $65–75k ta Disamba 2025 ba ta riƙe ba.

Tarihi — daga ABN AMRO zuwa teburin macro na Fidelity

Timmer yana cikin masana'antar saka hannun jari tun 1985. Kafin Fidelity, ya kasance mataimakin shugaba a rukunin fixed-income na ABN AMRO. Ya shiga Fidelity a 1995 a matsayin manazarcin bincike na fasaha, ya zama daraktan binciken kasuwa, sannan ya koma rukunin Global Asset Allocation a 2005. Daga 2007 zuwa 2014 ya kasance mai haɗin gwiwar sarrafa Fidelity Global Strategies Fund. Yana da digirin farko a fannin kuɗi daga Babson College da kuma lakabin CMT. A yau yana rubuta kayan dabarun kasuwa da Fidelity ke bai wa abokan ciniki da kafofin watsa labarai.

A kan Bitcoin, ya daɗe yana da kyakkyawan fata na dogon lokaci amma yana mutunta zagaye. A ranar 18 ga Disamba 2025 ya rubuta cewa 2026 na iya zama “shekarar hutu” ga Bitcoin, da tallafi a $65–75k. Ɓangaren shekarar hutu ya yi daidai. Ƙungiyar tallafin ba ta yi ba: BTC ya rufe har ƙasa da $58,566 a ranar 1 ga Yuli 2026, ƙasa da iyakarsa. Daga nan ya mayar da ƙasansa zuwa $60k kuma tun lokacin yake jayayya daga nan. Wannan rubutun na Disamba yana wajen lokacin taswirar, amma ya dace a saka shi cikin tarihi.

Sources: x.com/TimmerFidelity · Fidelity and CMT Association bios · dated coverage (CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin.com)

Salon ciniki & falsafa

Macro na zagaye bisa samfuri. Timmer ba ya ciniki da kyandir. Yana daidaita dukan tarihin farashin Bitcoin a kan lanƙwasar power-law, yana alamta layin tallafi a ƙarƙashinta, yana auna nisan da farashi ke ƙasa da yanayin, sannan ya kwatanta hakan da Z-score na makonni 52 na BTC/zinariya da tsawon lokutan sanyi na zagayen shekaru huɗu da suka gabata. Idan ma'aunan suka kai zurfin 2018 da 2022, yakan kira shi yankin tarawa. Yana ƙara idon masanin taswira (bear flags, double bottoms, juriyar $80k) da nazarin liquidity: bai ayyana ƙasa a Yuli ba saboda bai ga wani abin motsawa daga samar da kuɗi ba. Ƙarfin shi ne tsari mai daidaito wanda za a iya gwadawa. Rauninsa shi ne matakan tallafinsa yankuna ne, ba igiyoyin faɗakarwa ba, kuma an riga an karya yankin sau ɗaya a wannan zagaye.

Tarihin hasashe — kiransa, a jadawali

Matsayi bakwai masu kwanan wata daga rubuce-rubucen Timmer na kansa a X, an zana su a kan ainihin farashi. Suna bin tsari guda ɗaya a lokacin sanyin 2026: ƙasan $60k a Maris, karatun gina tushe a Afrilu wanda ya zo kafin ƙarin faɗuwar −25%, kiran yankin tarawa a Yuli 'yan kwanaki kafin ƙasa, da kiran kasuwar bull a ƙarshen Satumba. Huɗu daga cikin bakwai ɗin makonni kaɗan ne kawai da yin su, kuma an rubuta su a matsayin a buɗe. Ƙungiyar tallafinsa ta $65–75k ta Disamba 2025 ba ta yi daidai ba. Ta riga lokacin taswirar, kuma an bayyana ta a tarihin da ke sama.

Sakamakon karatunmu ne na matsayin da ya bayyana a kan ainihin farashi, ba makin da shi da kansa ya bayar ba. An tabbatar da kowace magana kalma da kalma a rubutun da aka haɗa (cikakken rubutu ta fxtwitter, kwanan wata ta x_capture) kafin wallafawa. Alamomin gajeren lokaci na iya juyawa yayin da zagayen ke ci gaba.

Yadda yake samun kuɗi — da inda rikicin buƙatu yake

Timmer ba ɗan influencer ba ne kuma ba ya sayar da sigina. Shi masanin dabaru ne mai albashi a ɗaya daga cikin manyan kamfanonin sarrafa kadarori a duniya. Wannan abin ƙarfafawa ne mafi tsafta, amma ba na tsaka-tsaki ba: Fidelity na gudanar da kayayyakin Bitcoin da ajiya, kuma rubuce-rubucensa wani ɓangare ne na sadarwarta da abokan ciniki.

Ra'ayoyinsa na musamman

An ɗauko kalmomin daga majiyoyinsa na jama'a; ra'ayoyin da ya bayyana ne, ba shawara ba.

Ɗakin karatun abubuwan da ya wallafa

Babu ɗakin bidiyo da za a haɗa. Timmer ba shi da tashar ko podcast na kansa, kuma bayyanarsa a talabijin da podcast shirye-shiryen wasu ne. Babban aikinsa shi ne rubuce-rubucen taswira a @TimmerFidelity, kuma kowane kira da ke sama yana haɗe da ɗaya daga cikinsu, tare da tabbatar da jumlar da aka ambata kalma da kalma a rubutun. Don cikakken fahimtar yadda yake tunani, tattaunawarsa ta Oktoba 2025 da Barry Ritholtz a Masters in Business ta ƙunshi aikinsa da tsarinsa na macro.

Amsoshi kai tsaye

Har zuwa yaya kake ciniki kamarsa?

Timmer yana karanta Bitcoin ta hanyar samfurin dogon lokaci, lokacin zagaye da ma'aunin zinariya, ba kyandir na yau da kullum ba. Yaya kusancin fahimtarka? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.

Nazari na bayani da ilimantarwa wanda ya dogara kacokan kan kayan da ke a bainar jama'a — a wannan yanayi, rubuce-rubucen Timmer na kansa masu kwanan wata a X, waɗanda aka haɗa a kowane kira, da tarihin rayuwarsa da Fidelity ta wallafa. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko saka hannun jari ba ne. Alƙaluman kimantawa ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Jurrien? Aika gyara →

Asusun da aka tabbatar · An ambaci majiyoyi a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 28 September 2026