Josh Olszewicz

@CarpeNoctom

≈149K mabiya a XCanary Capital shugaban ciniki8 kira masu kwanan wata an zana su a nan

An Ichimoku chartist who runs trading at the crypto ETF issuer Canary Capital and posts short, dated chart calls to about 149,000 followers. In 2026 his turns were mostly well timed. On 29 May, with Bitcoin at $73,652, he said it was probably headed for a 200-week moving average test, and six days later it was there. His April title “Here's How $BTC Hits ATH in 2026” is still a long way off, his September “M top” call was followed by a breakout, and he dropped his 6 October “rdy to rock” setup himself the next day.

A taƙaice. Josh Olszewicz trades Bitcoin and Ether from the Ichimoku cloud and classic chart patterns, and posts the setups on X as @CarpeNoctom. On our sample of eight in-window posts the record is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The best call was the bearish turn of 29 May: from $73,652 he expected a test of the 200-week moving average, which came on 4 June at $64,047 (−13.0%). He also called the July inverse head-and-shoulders target of 70k+ and Ether's August breakout (+32.2% in two weeks). The misses were the 11 September M top, which pointed to $70k–$72k while Bitcoin went to $86,597 instead, and a 6 October 4-hour breakout call that he abandoned the next day (“so much for that”). His 20 April title, a path to a new all-time high in 2026, is still open.

Bayanan baya — abin da aka rubuta, da abin da ba a rubuta ba

Josh Olszewicz shi ne VP kuma Shugaban Ciniki a Canary Capital, wani kamfanin gudanar da kadarori na Amurka da ke fitar da crypto ETF. Bayanin sa a X yana cewa “Canary.Capital PM & Head of Trading”. A cewar shafin ma'aikatan Canary, a baya ya jagoranci binciken crypto a BraveNewCoin, ya kasance manajan jakar jari a Techemy Capital kuma ya yi aiki a matsayin Shugaban Bincike a Valkyrie Investments. Kafin crypto ya koyar da kimiyyar ɗakin gwaji a matakin jami'a, kuma yana da digirin BS a Human Biology da MS a Biotechnology. Ya kasance a X a matsayin @CarpeNoctom tun March 2009.

Ayyukansa suna bin tsarin mako-mako: bidiyon “Setup Sunday”, “Macro Monday”, shirin “Alt Coins” da watsa shirye-shirye kai tsaye na “Broad Market Review” a ranar Juma'a, tare da rubuce-rubuce na mako-mako kan bayanan CME Commitments of Traders (CoT) da kwararar spot ETF na Amurka. Yawancin rubuce-rubucensa na chart suna magana kan hannayen jari da kuma crypto. Wannan shafi yana auna hasashensa na Bitcoin da Ether kawai, domin waɗannan ne farashin da shafin ke bibiya.

He also discloses a miss of his own. On 3 June 2026 he reposted his March 2018 post “ya, still on track for 33k by July” with the line “Heroes get remembered but bad calls never die”. Bitcoin did not come close to $33k in 2018. His weekly CoT posts read the data as bearish for most of the window, including through the July–September rally. We treat those as data reports, not price calls, and do not chart them. Eight posts qualified as calls, and several more were examined and excluded. Each is listed with its reason in the verified corpus.

Sources: x.com/CarpeNoctom (captured via api.fxtwitter.com and X syndication) · canary.capital/about · canaryetfs.com · linktr.ee/carpenoctom · YouTube oEmbed

Salon ciniki & falsafa

Gajimare ne ke yanke hukunci. Olszewicz yana karanta yanayin kasuwa daga Ichimoku cloud (“kumo”): sama da shi bullish ne, ƙasa da shi bearish ne, kuma ballewa ta cikinsa alama ce. Yana haɗa shi da tsoffin tsari: head-and-shoulders da inverse head-and-shoulders, double top (“M”), falling wedge, da burin Fibonacci. Yawancin rubuce-rubucensa layi ɗaya ne da chart ɗaya, tare da buri ko matakin soke hasashe. Wannan yana sa a sauƙaƙa auna su. Ƙarfinsa shi ne juyawa tare da yanayin kasuwa: a wannan samfurin ya koma bearish kafin faɗuwar Yuni, kuma ya sake komawa bullish kafin ballewar Agusta. Rauninsa shi ne tsarin da bai taɓa faruwa ba: M top na Satumba ya ɗauki tsayawa a matsayin kololuwa.

Tarihin hasashe — kiraye-kirayensa, a jadawali

Eight dated posts from @CarpeNoctom, each captured verbatim from X and charted against real price. The tally is 5 played out, 1 open, 2 went against. The record is strongest at the turns: the 29 May call for a 200-week moving average test, the 5 June “no bottom yet”, the 20 July 70k+ target and Ether's August breakout all played out. The 11 September M top and the 6 October “rdy to rock” setup went against, and the April all-time-high title is still open.

Outcomes are our read of the stated claim against real price, not his own scoring. Every quote is a verbatim X post, linked on its card and reproduced in full in the verified corpus. X's API writes the BTC and ETH token tags as “bitcoin:native” and “ethereum:native”, and we quote them as returned. We did not chart his weekly CoT and ETF-flow posts (data reports), hedged posts (“bull flag possible”), a 3 May post that was conditional on the low holding (it did not hold), or a later Puell Multiple post that restated the July bull case and would have scored as a win. From the 20 October refresh we also left out hedged or pattern-watch posts: “4h $BTC FW potential” (17 September), “1D $ETH unconfirmed hidden bull div” (8 October) and “$ETH H&S watch” (14 October), along with ratio charts such as SOL/BTC and ETH/BTC. Prices are CoinGecko daily marks, so an intraday post is measured from that day's mark. The 6 October card is graded from his own follow-ups, “looked*” the same day and “well, so much for that, on to the next trade” on 7 October, and from price. The “$1,000 da aka saka a kan wannan kiran” line assumes buying on the post date; for the bearish 29 May and 11 September cards, that line is not a short. Near-term marks can flip.

Yadda ake samun kuɗi a nan — da inda rikicin buƙatu yake

Rubuce-rubuce da watsa shirye-shiryen Olszewicz kyauta ne. Babban kuɗin shigarsa daga aikinsa ne, kuma shafin hanyoyinsa yana da hanyar zuwa wata kasuwar musaya. Ga abin da muka gano.

Ra'ayoyi na musamman

An ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.

Dakin karatu na abun ciki

Olszewicz yana watsa shirye-shirye a YouTube (@carpenoctom), a X da a Twitch, kuma yana wallafa kowane shiri a X. Shirin “Broad Market Review” na ranar Juma'a yana magana kan crypto, tattalin arziki da hannayen jari. Watsa shirye-shiryen kwanan nan da muka iya tabbatarwa:

Broad Market Review: Drop It Like Its HotAn watsa a ranar hasashensa na M top.11 Sep 2026Broad Market Review: Breakout ConfirmedBallewar Bitcoin ta Afrilu, kwana uku kafin bidiyon sabon kololuwa.17 Apr 2026Broad Market Review - Home on the Choppy RangeBitcoin ya maƙale a cikin iyakarsa a farkon Afrilu.3 Apr 2026

Amsoshi kai tsaye

Salonka ya yi kama sosai?

Olszewicz yana barin gajimare ya yanke hukunci. Yaya fahimtarka take kusa? Auna ta da gaske da Trader Passport.

Nazari na bayani da ilmantarwa wanda ya dogara kacokan kan kayan da jama'a ke iya samu: rubuce-rubucen X masu kwanan wata da aka ɗauko daga hanyoyin jama'a na X da majiyoyin da aka haɗa a kowane hasashe. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko ta zuba jari ba ne. Alƙaluman kimanin ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Josh? Gabatar da gyara →

An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 20 October 2026