@Jamie1Coutts
Mai nazarin zagaye wanda ke karanta Bitcoin ta hanyar liquidity, farashin sayen on-chain da ƙarfin motsi na mako-mako. A watan Maris, lokacin da Bitcoin ke kusa da $68,000, ya yi hasashen cewa mafi ƙasƙancin farashi zai zo a ƙarshen Q2 ko a Q3. Ya zo a ranar 1 ga Yuli a $58,566. A ƙarshen Afrilu ya yi gargaɗin wani faɗuwa na ƙarshe, kuma a watan Agusta ya kira hauhawar juyin zagaye, ba ɗan tashi kawai ba. Duka biyun sun tabbata. Sababbin hasashensa, wani samfurin Bitcoin na wata shida da ra'ayin Ether na wata uku zuwa shida, har yanzu a buɗe suke.
A taƙaice. Jamie Coutts shi ne babban mai nazarin kirifto a Real Vision kuma yana wallafa a X da sunan @Jamie1Coutts. A cikin samfurinmu na rubuce-rubuce takwas a cikin taga, sakamakon shi ne 5 sun tabbata, 3 a buɗe, 0 sun saɓa. Mafi kyawun hasashensa shi ne lokacin mafi ƙasƙancin farashi na 2026. Raunin shi ne ra'ayinsa na Afrilu cewa Bitcoin ya kusa ƙasa, wanda ya zo da wuri da wata uku da 14%, da kuma hasashensa na 2025 na $170,000, wanda shi da kansa ya ce bai zo ba.
Bayanin kansa a X yana cewa “Chief Crypto Analyst, @Realvision | Founder, Helios Analytics | Built the crypto research product, Bloomberg Intelligence”. Sunan da yake nunawa yana ɗauke da CMT, laƙabin Chartered Market Technician. A wani rubutu na Satumba 2026 ya rubuta cewa ya kasance mai biyan kuɗin Real Vision kusan shekaru goma kafin ya haɗu da Raoul Pal don gina samfurin kirifto ɗinsa shekaru uku da suka wuce. Asusun ya lissafa Sydney a matsayin wurinsa, kuma yawancin rubuce-rubucensa game da siyasar Australia ne.
Yana auna kansa a fili. A watan Yuni 2026 ya rubuta: “I called the 2022 Bitcoin bottom right. I called a top in September 2025, but not the definitive top. My thesis: a 30% correction, then a run to $170,000. The correction came. The continuation didn't.” Wannan hasashen na 2025 yana wajen tagar farashinmu, don haka ba mu zana shi ba.
Yawancin rubuce-rubucensa dogayen zaren rubutu ne game da liquidity, bashi, bayanan on-chain da tattalin arzikin token. Hasashe bayyananne na Bitcoin ko Ether kaɗan ne. Mun karanta kowane rubutunsa na kansa a cikin taga, kusan 240, kuma mun zana takwas. Kafofin yaɗa labarai, kamar GNcrypto a watan Yuli, suna ambaton ra'ayoyinsa na dogon lokaci ma: $200,000 zuwa $250,000 ga Bitcoin cikin shekaru biyu zuwa uku. Waɗannan sun wuce tagarmu, don haka ba mu zana su ba.
Sources: x.com/Jamie1Coutts (captured via api.fxtwitter.com) · GNcrypto
Liquidity da farko, sannan chart. Jamie yana farawa daga liquidity na duniya, dala da matsin lamba a kasuwar bashi, sannan ya duba farashin sayen on-chain da bambancin RSI na mako-mako, sannan kawai ya nemi damar ciniki. Yana bayar da yiwuwa, ba manufa ba, kuma yana faɗin haka: “Bitcoin value zones are probabilistic, not precise.” Wannan ya sa yana da wuya a auna hasashensa da farashi, amma hasashensa na yanayin kasuwa a 2026 galibi sun yi daidai.
Bearish a gajeren lokaci, bullish a dogon lokaci daga Maris zuwa Yuni 2026. Bullish tun daga juyin Agusta, kuma a ranar 9 ga Satumba ya rubuta cewa ya “went fully deployed on the August inflection”. A ranar 21 ga Satumba ya yi gargaɗin cewa kirifto “could easily see a 30%+ pullback” amma ya ce faɗuwar farashi lokaci ne na sayen kadarori masu inganci.
Rubuce-rubuce takwas masu kwanan wata daga @Jamie1Coutts, kowanne an ɗauko shi kalma da kalma daga X kuma an zana shi a kan ainihin farashi. Sakamakon shi ne 5 sun tabbata, 3 a buɗe, 0 sun saɓa. Nasarorin su ne lokacin mafi ƙasƙancin farashi, hasashen bearish na ƙarshen Afrilu da juyin Agusta. Hasashen da ke buɗe suna da wa'adin wata uku zuwa shida.
“The low $ 80k was the biggest cluster of long-term resistance - ETF, True Market Mean, LTH holder avg cost basis (@_Checkmatey_) Traditional TA; higher High, higher Low My volatility breakout model: 7/8 previous events since 2016 +41% median 6 months later.”
An wallafa da daddare a ranar 22 ga Satumba, ranar mafi girman alamar Bitcoin a cikin tagarmu, $86,597. Tun daga lokacin ya sauka zuwa $83,479 (−3.6%) a ranar 29 ga Satumba kuma yanzu yana $84,793 (−2.1%). Wa'adin samfurin ya kai Maris 2027. A buɗe.
𝕏 Post“My volatility breakout model: 7/8 previous events since 2016 +41% median 6 months later.” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“Base case is a pullback here given how much resistance is stacked up. Breakthrough, and this starts to look like a Q2 2019 redux, not my base case, but on the table.”
An wallafa a 22:16 UTC, bayan wani tsalle: alamar ranar ita ce $77,297, amma alama ta gaba, kusan awa biyu bayan haka, ita ce $81,265, don haka daga wannan muka auna. Bitcoin ya ja da baya zuwa $75,590 (−7.0%) a ranar 16 ga Satumba, nesa sama da “high $60,000s” da ya ce zai dace har yanzu. Sannan ya keta zuwa $86,597 (+6.6%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba kuma yanzu yana $84,793 (+4.3%). Ja da bayan ya zo da farko. Ya tabbata.
𝕏 Post“Base case is a pullback here given how much resistance is stacked up.” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“It doesn't read as a normal countertrend rally. The 2018 & 2019 lows both had a volatility squeeze, followed by a big impulse move higher. Both were large in % terms but not as big as this one in volatility-adjusted terms. So a cycle inflection, not a counter-trend bounce, and the forward statistics support that.”
Alamar ranar ita ce $73,021. Rubutun ya fita a 10:12 UTC, don haka wani ɓangare na hauhawar ranar gobe zuwa $78,318 (+7.3%) zai iya riga shi. Bitcoin bai sake rufewa ƙasa da alamar ranar ba. Ya kai $86,597 (+18.6%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba, 10.6% sama da alamar ranar gobe, kuma yanzu yana $84,793 (+16.1%). Ya tabbata.
𝕏 Post“So a cycle inflection, not a counter-trend bounce” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“History says the short-term follow-through is close to a coin flip, but the odds skew meaningfully higher over the next 3 to 6 months.”
An wallafa washegari da safe bayan tsallen Ether, a $2,252. Bai sake rufewa ƙasa da wannan alamar ba, ya tashi zuwa $2,775 (+23.2%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba kuma yanzu yana $2,693 (+19.6%). Ya tashi zuwa yanzu, amma tagar wata uku zuwa shida tana gudana daga Nuwamba zuwa Fabrairu. A buɗe.
𝕏 Post“the odds skew meaningfully higher over the next 3 to 6 months” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“I've argued Q2/Q3 would mark the bottom based on historical bear-market structures. Its playing out that way. The relative setup is approaching very attractive levels. The asset is in the long-term accumulation zone, imo.”
An wallafa a $63,274. Bitcoin ya yi mafi ƙasƙancin farashinsa bayan mako uku, $58,566 (−7.4%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli. Sannan ya tashi zuwa $86,597 (+36.9%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba kuma yanzu yana $84,793 (+34.0%). Ya tabbata.
𝕏 Post“I've argued Q2/Q3 would mark the bottom based on historical bear-market structures. Its playing out that way.” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“And anecdotally, when the STH cost basis crossed below the True Mean Price in previous bear markets (green arrows on the chart), Bitcoin entered the final leg lower. That cross has happened again. If the Feb low is the real bottom, price needs to reclaim and hold above the mid-$80ks to unwind that bearish onchain supply reality.”
An wallafa a $76,332. Bitcoin ya tashi zuwa $82,018 (+7.4%) a ranar 11 ga Mayu, bai taɓa kaiwa tsakiyar $80,000s ba, sannan ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 (−23.3%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli. Faɗuwa ta ƙarshe ta zo. Ya tabbata.
𝕏 Post“when the STH cost basis crossed below the True Mean Price in previous bear markets … Bitcoin entered the final leg lower. That cross has happened again.” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“I remain sanguine about the liquidity environment and therefore cautious about risk assets. But the data on Bitcoin derivatives is what it is. And what it says is: tmatakin da aka ambata of sustained bearish derivatives positioning has historically been a poor time to be short.”
An wallafa a $70,661, tare da misalan baya da ke nuna matsakaicin +20.8% bayan kwana 30 da +43.5% bayan 90. Bayan kwana talatin Bitcoin yana $80,482 (+13.9%), bayan kololuwa ta $82,018 (+16.1%) a ranar 11 ga Mayu. Bayan kwana casa'in yana $63,791 (−9.7%), bayan mafi ƙasƙanci na $58,566 (−17.1%). Daidai a kwana 30, kuskure a 90. Gauraye.
𝕏 Post“tmatakin da aka ambata of sustained bearish derivatives positioning has historically been a poor time to be short” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“later q2 or potentially q3 for ultimate BTC low is my base guess”
Amsa a ƙarƙashin zarensa “Short term bearish, long term bullish”, an wallafa a $67,933. Bitcoin ya fara tashi zuwa $82,018 (+20.7%) a ranar 11 ga Mayu. Sannan ya yi mafi ƙasƙancin farashinsa a ranar farko ta Q3, $58,566 (−13.8%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli, kuma bai sake sauka ƙasa da haka ba tun lokacin. Yanzu yana $84,793 (+24.8%). Ya tabbata.
𝕏 Post“later q2 or potentially q3 for ultimate BTC low is my base guess” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.comSakamakon fahimtarmu ne na iƙirarin da aka faɗa idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashi, ba makin da ɗan kasuwar ya ba kansa ba. Kowace magana rubutu ne na X kalma da kalma, an haɗa shi a katinsa kuma an sake buga shi gaba ɗaya a cikin tarin da aka tabbatar. Yana wallafa daga Australia, don haka wasu rubuce-rubuce sun fita a ƙarshen ranar UTC. Ana zana kowane rubutu a alamar CoinGecko ta tsakar daren wannan ranar, kuma idan alama ta gaba ta riga ta motsa sosai, katin yana faɗin haka kuma yana auna daga alamar da ta biyo baya. Ba mu zana maimaitawa ba. A ranar 2 ga Afrilu ya rubuta cewa “BTC should be close to its trough”; ƙasan ya zo bayan wata uku kuma 13.8% ƙasa da haka, a $58,566. A ranar 9 ga Satumba ya ce ya zuba jari gaba ɗaya. Babu ɗayansu da ke hasashe daban da waɗanda aka nuna a nan. Mun kuma bar rubuce-rubuce game da Bitcoin idan aka kwatanta da zinariya, azurfa ko hannayen jarin fasaha, da kuma game da altcoins.
Rubuce-rubucen Jamie a X kyauta ne. Ga yadda ake biyan kuɗin nazarinsa.
Shi ne babban mai nazarin kirifto a Real Vision, dandalin bincike na biyan kuɗi. Rubuce-rubucensa suna nuni zuwa matakan Pro da Alpha, rangwamen sayarwa da shafin farashinsa, da kuma rahotanninsa da jakar jarinsa a can. Ba mu iya buɗe shafin farashin ba, don haka ba mu ambaci farashi ba.
A watan Satumba 2026 ya lissafa manyan hasashensa ga jakar jari ta Pro, ciki har da Derive, Zcash da NEAR, kuma ya rubuta cewa jakar jarin ta yi “up 2x in 2 months”. Yana kuma wallafa game da waɗannan token a X. Wannan jakar jari tana bayan katangar biyan kuɗi, don haka ba mu iya tabbatar da iƙirarin ba, kuma ba mu zana waɗannan token ba.
Bayanin kansa ya lissafa shi a matsayin wanda ya kafa Helios Analytics. Rubuce-rubucensa suna ambaton alamar Trend Chameleon ta kamfanin, wadda membobin Real Vision ke samu ta TradingView. Ba mu sami wani farashi daban na ta ba.
“later q2 or potentially q3 for ultimate BTC low is my base guess”
23 Mar 2026 · ya tabbata“So a cycle inflection, not a counter-trend bounce”
21 Aug 2026 · ya tabbata“My thesis: a 30% correction, then a run to $170,000. The correction came. The continuation didn't.”
26 Jun 2026 · nazarinsa na kansa kan 2025An ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Jamie yana rubuta dogayen zaren rubutu a X da cikakkun rahotanni ga membobin Real Vision. Yana kuma bayyana a cikin podcast da shirye-shiryen YouTube na wasu mutane.
Babban mai nazarin kirifto a Real Vision, kuma kafin haka mai nazarin kirifto a Bloomberg Intelligence. Yana wallafa a X da sunan @Jamie1Coutts, yana da kusan mabiya 51,000, kuma yana riƙe da takardar shaidar CMT. Bayanin sa ya lissafa Sydney a matsayin wurinsa.
A cikin samfurinmu na rubuce-rubuce takwas masu kwanan wata daga 23 ga Maris zuwa 22 ga Satumba 2026: biyar sun tabbata, uku a buɗe, babu wanda ya saɓa. Ya yi daidai da lokacin mafi ƙasƙancin farashi na 2026. A kalmominsa, hasashensa na 2025 na hauhawa zuwa $170,000 bai zo ba.
I. Yana rubuta rahotanni kuma yana gudanar da jakar jari ga membobin Real Vision masu biyan kuɗi, a matakan Pro da Alpha. Rubuce-rubucensa a X kyauta ne.
Lokaci ne da sauye-sauyen farashi suka yi ƙanƙanta fiye da yadda aka saba. Yawanci yana ƙarewa da babban motsi. Nazarin Jamie ya ce keta sama bayan squeeze ya fi ci gaba sau da yawa fiye da keta ƙasa. Squeeze ɗin kansa ba ya faɗin inda farashi zai nufa.
Ba a san shi a fili ba, kuma babu adadi mai inganci. Kada ku kula da kowane takamaiman adadi da kuka gani an haɗa shi da sunan.
Jamie yana karanta zagaye ta hanyar liquidity da ƙarfin motsi na mako-mako. Yaya kusancin hankalinka? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka gwada hanyarka. Gwada ƙwarewarka kan bayanan kasuwa kai tsaye ba tare da haɗarin jari ba a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayani da ilmantarwa wanda ya dogara kacokan kan kayan da jama'a ke iya samu: rubuce-rubucen X masu kwanan wata da aka ɗauko daga hanyoyin jama'a na X da majiyoyin da aka haɗa a kowane hasashe. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko ta zuba jari ba ne. Alƙaluman kimanin ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Jamie? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 4 October 2026
