@Jamie1Coutts
Mai nazarin zagayowar kasuwa wanda ke karanta Bitcoin ta hanyar yawan kuɗi a kasuwa (liquidity), farashin sayen masu riƙe a on-chain da ƙarfin motsi na mako-mako. A watan Maris ya yi tsammanin ƙasan kasuwa zai zo a ƙarshen Q2 ko a Q3. Ya zo a ranar 1 ga Yuli a $58,566. A ƙarshen watan Afrilu ya yi gargaɗin wani zango na ƙarshe na faɗuwa, kuma a watan Agusta ya kira hauhawar juyin zagayowa, ba dawowa kawai ba. Duka biyun sun tabbata. Sababbin hasashensa, wato samfurin Bitcoin na watanni shida, ra'ayin Ether na watanni uku zuwa shida da kuma layin watan Nuwamba a farkon $70,000s, ana ci gaba da su.
A taƙaice. Jamie Coutts shi ne babban mai nazarin crypto a Real Vision kuma yana wallafa a X da sunan @Jamie1Coutts. A cikin samfurinmu na rubuce-rubuce tara a cikin tagar lokaci, sakamakon shi ne 5 sun tabbata, 4 ana ci gaba, 0 ba su tabbata ba. Mafi kyawun hasashensa shi ne lokacin ƙasan kasuwa na 2026. Raunanan wurare su ne ra'ayinsa na watan Afrilu cewa Bitcoin ya kusa ƙasansa, wanda ya zo watanni uku kafin lokaci kuma nesa sama da ƙasan na ƙarshe, da kuma hasashensa na 2025 na $170,000, wanda shi da kansa ya ce bai zo ba.
Bayanin kansa a X yana cewa “Chief Crypto Analyst, @Realvision | Founder, Helios Analytics | Built the crypto research product, Bloomberg Intelligence”. Sunan da yake nunawa yana ɗauke da CMT, laƙabin Chartered Market Technician. A wani rubutu na Satumba 2026 ya rubuta cewa ya kasance mai biyan kuɗin Real Vision kusan shekaru goma kafin ya haɗu da Raoul Pal don gina samfurin kirifto ɗinsa shekaru uku da suka wuce. Asusun ya lissafa Sydney a matsayin wurinsa, kuma yawancin rubuce-rubucensa game da siyasar Australia ne.
Yana auna kansa a fili. A watan Yuni 2026 ya rubuta: “I called the 2022 Bitcoin bottom right. I called a top in September 2025, but not the definitive top. My thesis: a 30% correction, then a run to $170,000. The correction came. The continuation didn't.” Wannan hasashen na 2025 yana wajen tagar farashinmu, don haka ba mu zana shi ba.
Yawancin rubuce-rubucensa dogayen jerin rubuce-rubuce (threads) ne kan liquidity, bashi, bayanan on-chain da tattalin arzikin tokens. Bayyanannun hasashe kan Bitcoin ko Ether kaɗan ne. Mun karanta kowane rubutunsa na kansa a cikin tagar lokaci, kusan 240, kuma mun kwatanta takwas. Mun karanta sababbin rubuce-rubucensa a ranar 5 ga Nuwamba kuma mun ƙara na tara. Labaran kafofin watsa labarai, kamar GNcrypto a watan Yuli, suna kawo dogayen ra'ayoyinsa ma: $200,000 zuwa $250,000 ga Bitcoin cikin shekaru biyu zuwa uku. Waɗannan sun wuce tagar lokacinmu, don haka ba mu kwatanta su ba.
Majiyoyi: x.com/Jamie1Coutts (captured via api.fxtwitter.com) · GNcrypto
Liquidity da farko, sannan chart. Jamie yana farawa daga liquidity na duniya, dala da matsin lamba a kasuwar bashi, sannan ya duba farashin sayen on-chain da bambancin RSI na mako-mako, sannan kawai ya nemi damar ciniki. Yana bayar da yiwuwa, ba manufa ba, kuma yana faɗin haka: “Bitcoin value zones are probabilistic, not precise.” Wannan ya sa yana da wuya a auna hasashensa da farashi, amma hasashensa na yanayin kasuwa a 2026 galibi sun yi daidai.
Ra'ayin faɗuwa na ɗan gajeren lokaci, ra'ayin hawa na dogon lokaci daga watan Maris zuwa Yuni 2026. Ra'ayin hawa tun juyin watan Agusta, kuma a ranar 9 ga Satumba ya rubuta cewa ya zuba jarinsa gaba ɗaya: “went fully deployed on the August inflection”. A ranar 21 ga Satumba ya yi gargaɗin cewa crypto “could easily see a 30%+ pullback”, amma ya kira faɗuwar farashi lokaci na sayen kadarori masu inganci. A ranar 3 ga Nuwamba, lokacin da Bitcoin ke kusa da $77,000, ya rubuta cewa Bitcoin “needs to hold the low $70,000 levels for the market regime to remain bullish”.
Rubuce-rubuce tara masu kwanan wata daga @Jamie1Coutts, kowanne an ɗauko shi kalma da kalma daga X kuma an kwatanta shi da ainihin farashi. Sakamakon shi ne 5 sun tabbata, 4 ana ci gaba, 0 ba su tabbata ba. Nasarorin su ne lokacin ƙasan kasuwa, hasashen faɗuwa na ƙarshen watan Afrilu da juyin watan Agusta. Hasashen da ake ci gaba da su suna da tsawon lokaci na watanni uku zuwa shida.
“Bitcoin needs to hold the low $70,000 levels for the market regime to remain bullish. Crypto breadth, which posted its strongest, most sustained outperformance in over a year, has collapsed. Washed-out levels but bitcoin:native support needs to hold.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 5 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa da ƙarfe 01:21 UTC a ranar 3 ga Nuwamba, kusan awa ɗaya bayan farashin wannan rana na $76,709, mafi ƙasƙancin farashi tun watan Agusta. Jadawalin yanayin kasuwa da ya haɗa har yanzu yana nuna “ON”, kamar yadda yake tun 19 ga Agusta, tare da Bitcoin a $77,434. A cikin rubutun ɗaya ya rubuta cewa liquidity ya yi ƙaranci kuma “next 3-6 months will be wild”. Bitcoin bai rufe ƙasa da haka ba tun daga lokacin kuma yana kan $80,610 (+5.1%). Farkon $70,000s yana riƙe zuwa yanzu, amma wannan kwana biyu ne kawai. Ana ci gaba.
Rubutu a 𝕏“Bitcoin needs to hold the low $70,000 levels for the market regime to remain bullish.” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“The low $ 80k was the biggest cluster of long-term resistance - ETF, True Market Mean, LTH holder avg cost basis (@_Checkmatey_) Traditional TA; higher High, higher Low My volatility breakout model: 7/8 previous events since 2016 +41% median 6 months later.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 5 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa a ƙarshen ranar 22 ga Satumba, ranar mafi kololuwar farashin Bitcoin a cikin tagar lokacinmu, $86,597. Tun daga lokacin bai rufe sama da haka ba. Ya faɗi zuwa $76,709 (−11.4%) a ranar 3 ga Nuwamba kuma yana kan $80,610 (−6.9%). Tsawon lokacin samfurin yana kaiwa watan Maris 2027. Ana ci gaba, kuma ƙasa da farashin farko zuwa yanzu.
Rubutu a 𝕏“My volatility breakout model: 7/8 previous events since 2016 +41% median 6 months later.” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“Base case is a pullback here given how much resistance is stacked up. Breakthrough, and this starts to look like a Q2 2019 redux, not my base case, but on the table.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 5 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa da ƙarfe 22:16 UTC, bayan wani tsalle: farashin ranar shi ne $77,297, amma farashi na gaba, kusan awa biyu bayan haka, shi ne $81,265, don haka mun yi hukunci daga wannan. Bitcoin ya ja da baya zuwa $75,590 (−7.0%) a ranar 16 ga Satumba, nesa sama da “high $60,000s” da ya ce har yanzu zai dace. Sannan ya keta zuwa $86,597 (+6.6%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba kuma yana kan $80,610 (−0.8%). Ja da bayan ya zo da farko. Ya tabbata.
Rubutu a 𝕏“Base case is a pullback here given how much resistance is stacked up.” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“It doesn't read as a normal countertrend rally. The 2018 & 2019 lows both had a volatility squeeze, followed by a big impulse move higher. Both were large in % terms but not as big as this one in volatility-adjusted terms. So a cycle inflection, not a counter-trend bounce, and the forward statistics support that.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 5 Nuw 2026 neAlamar ranar ita ce $73,021. Rubutun ya fita a 10:12 UTC, don haka wani ɓangare na hauhawar ranar gobe zuwa $78,318 (+7.3%) zai iya riga shi. Bitcoin bai sake rufewa ƙasa da alamar ranar ba. Ya kai $86,597 (+18.6%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba, 10.6% sama da alamar ranar gobe, kuma yanzu yana $80,610 (+10.4%). Ya tabbata.
Rubutu a 𝕏“So a cycle inflection, not a counter-trend bounce” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“History says the short-term follow-through is close to a coin flip, but the odds skew meaningfully higher over the next 3 to 6 months.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 5 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa da safe bayan tsallen Ether, a $2,252. Ya hau zuwa $2,775 (+23.2%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba, sannan ya mayar da mafi yawansa, ya rufe a $2,242 (−0.4%) a ranar 31 ga Oktoba. Yana kan $2,429 (+7.9%). Ya hau zuwa yanzu, amma tagar watanni uku zuwa shida tana gudana daga ƙarshen watan Nuwamba zuwa Fabrairu. Ana ci gaba.
Rubutu a 𝕏“the odds skew meaningfully higher over the next 3 to 6 months” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“I've argued Q2/Q3 would mark the bottom based on historical bear-market structures. Its playing out that way. The relative setup is approaching very attractive levels. The asset is in the long-term accumulation zone, imo.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 5 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa a $63,274. Bitcoin ya yi mafi ƙasƙancin farashinsa bayan mako uku, $58,566 (−7.4%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli. Sannan ya tashi zuwa $86,597 (+36.9%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba kuma yanzu yana $80,610 (+27.4%). Ya tabbata.
Rubutu a 𝕏“I've argued Q2/Q3 would mark the bottom based on historical bear-market structures. Its playing out that way.” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“And anecdotally, when the STH cost basis crossed below the True Mean Price in previous bear markets (green arrows on the chart), Bitcoin entered the final leg lower. That cross has happened again. If the Feb low is the real bottom, price needs to reclaim and hold above the mid-$80ks to unwind that bearish onchain supply reality.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 5 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa a $76,332. Bitcoin ya tashi zuwa $82,018 (+7.4%) a ranar 11 ga Mayu, bai taɓa kaiwa tsakiyar $80,000s ba, sannan ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 (−23.3%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli. Faɗuwa ta ƙarshe ta zo. Ya tabbata.
Rubutu a 𝕏“when the STH cost basis crossed below the True Mean Price in previous bear markets … Bitcoin entered the final leg lower. That cross has happened again.” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“I remain sanguine about the liquidity environment and therefore cautious about risk assets. But the data on Bitcoin derivatives is what it is. And what it says is: this level of sustained bearish derivatives positioning has historically been a poor time to be short.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 5 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa a $70,661, tare da misalan baya da ke nuna matsakaicin +20.8% bayan kwana 30 da +43.5% bayan 90. Bayan kwana talatin Bitcoin yana $80,482 (+13.9%), bayan kololuwa ta $82,018 (+16.1%) a ranar 11 ga Mayu. Bayan kwana casa'in yana $63,791 (−9.7%), bayan mafi ƙasƙanci na $58,566 (−17.1%). Daidai a kwana 30, kuskure a 90. Gauraye.
Rubutu a 𝕏“this level of sustained bearish derivatives positioning has historically been a poor time to be short” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.com“later q2 or potentially q3 for ultimate BTC low is my base guess”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 5 Nuw 2026 neAn rubuta rubutun da ke ƙasa lokacin da jadawalin ke farawa daga ranar farko ta lokacin farashi. Yanzu jadawalin da lissafin suna farawa ne daga farashin ranar hasashen: $70.9k (23 Mar 2026).Amsa ƙarƙashin jerin rubuce-rubucensa “Short term bearish, long term bullish”, an wallafa a ranar 23 ga Maris — ranar da ta riga ta fita daga tagar farashin wannan jadawali, don haka yanzu jadawalin yana farawa daga $71,368 a ranar 10 ga Afrilu. Daga nan Bitcoin ya fara hawa zuwa $82,018 (+14.9%) a ranar 11 ga Mayu. Sannan ya yi ƙasansa a ranar farko ta Q3, $58,566 (−17.9%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli, kuma bai sake sauka ƙasa da haka ba tun daga lokacin. Yana kan $80,610 (+13.0%). Hukuncin ya dogara ne kan lokacin da ya ambata, wanda canjin farkon jadawali ba zai iya sauya shi ba. Ya tabbata.
Rubutu a 𝕏“later q2 or potentially q3 for ultimate BTC low is my base guess” — @Jamie1Coutts on X↗ x.comSakamakon shi ne fahimtarmu na iƙirarin da aka bayyana idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashi, ba ƙididdigar ɗan kasuwar da kansa ba. Kowane ƙauli rubutu ne na X kalma da kalma, an haɗa shi da katinsa kuma an sake buga shi gaba ɗaya a cikin tarin bayanan da aka tabbatar. Yana wallafa daga Australia, don haka wasu rubuce-rubuce sun fita a ƙarshen ranar UTC. Ana kwatanta kowane rubutu a farashin CoinGecko na tsakar daren wannan rana, kuma inda farashi na gaba ya riga ya motsa sosai, katin ya faɗi haka kuma yana yin hukunci daga farashin na baya. Ba mu kwatanta maimaitawa ba. A ranar 2 ga Afrilu ya rubuta cewa “BTC should be close to its trough”; ƙasan ya zo bayan watanni uku kuma ƙasa sosai, a $58,566 a ranar 1 ga Yuli. A ranar 9 ga Satumba ya ce ya zuba jari gaba ɗaya. Babu ɗaya daga cikinsu da ke hasashe daban da waɗanda aka nuna a nan. Mun kuma bar rubuce-rubuce kan Bitcoin idan aka kwatanta da zinariya, azurfa ko hannayen jarin fasaha, da kuma kan altcoins. A ranar 5 ga Nuwamba mun karanta rubuce-rubucensa daga 3 ga Oktoba zuwa 5 ga Nuwamba kuma mun kwatanta sabon rubutu ɗaya. Yawancin sauran sun shafi samar da tokens da biyan kuɗi, liquidity, da gasar ciniki ta Real Vision; rubutunsa na 28 ga Oktoba “still bullish $NEAR” rubutu ne kan altcoin, don haka mun bar shi.
Rubuce-rubucen Jamie a X kyauta ne. Ga yadda ake biyan kuɗin nazarinsa.
Shi ne babban mai nazarin kirifto a Real Vision, dandalin bincike na biyan kuɗi. Rubuce-rubucensa suna nuni zuwa matakan Pro da Alpha, rangwamen sayarwa da shafin farashinsa, da kuma rahotanninsa da jakar jarinsa a can. Ba mu iya buɗe shafin farashin ba, don haka ba mu ambaci farashi ba.
A watan Satumba 2026 ya lissafa manyan hasashensa ga jakar jari ta Pro, ciki har da Derive, Zcash da NEAR, kuma ya rubuta cewa jakar jarin ta yi “up 2x in 2 months”. Yana kuma wallafa game da waɗannan token a X. Wannan jakar jari tana bayan katangar biyan kuɗi, don haka ba mu iya tabbatar da iƙirarin ba, kuma ba mu zana waɗannan token ba.
Bayanin kansa ya lissafa shi a matsayin wanda ya kafa Helios Analytics. Rubuce-rubucensa suna ambaton alamar Trend Chameleon ta kamfanin, wadda membobin Real Vision ke samu ta TradingView. Ba mu sami wani farashi daban na ta ba.
“later q2 or potentially q3 for ultimate BTC low is my base guess”
23 Mar 2026 · ya tabbata“So a cycle inflection, not a counter-trend bounce”
21 Agu 2026 · ya tabbata“My thesis: a 30% correction, then a run to $170,000. The correction came. The continuation didn't.”
26 Yun 2026 · nazarinsa na kansa kan 2025An kawo maganganun kalma da kalma, a harshensu na asali, daga majiyoyin jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da aka faɗa, ba shawara ba.
Jamie yana rubuta dogayen zaren rubutu a X da cikakkun rahotanni ga membobin Real Vision. Yana kuma bayyana a cikin podcast da shirye-shiryen YouTube na wasu mutane.
Babban mai nazarin kirifto a Real Vision, kuma kafin haka mai nazarin kirifto a Bloomberg Intelligence. Yana wallafa a X da sunan @Jamie1Coutts, yana da kusan mabiya 52,000, kuma yana riƙe da takardar shaidar CMT. Bayanin sa ya lissafa Sydney a matsayin wurinsa.
A cikin samfurinmu na rubuce-rubuce tara masu kwanan wata daga 23 ga Maris zuwa 3 ga Nuwamba 2026: biyar sun tabbata, huɗu ana ci gaba, babu wanda bai tabbata ba. Ya faɗi lokacin ƙasan kasuwa na 2026 da kyau. A kalmominsa na kansa, hasashensa na 2025 na hawa zuwa $170,000 bai zo ba.
I. Yana rubuta rahotanni kuma yana gudanar da jakar jari ga membobin Real Vision masu biyan kuɗi, a matakan Pro da Alpha. Rubuce-rubucensa a X kyauta ne.
Lokaci ne da sauye-sauyen farashi suka yi ƙanƙanta fiye da yadda aka saba. Yawanci yana ƙarewa da babban motsi. Nazarin Jamie ya ce keta sama bayan squeeze ya fi ci gaba sau da yawa fiye da keta ƙasa. Squeeze ɗin kansa ba ya faɗin inda farashi zai nufa.
Ba a san shi a fili ba, kuma babu adadi mai inganci. Kada ku kula da kowane takamaiman adadi da kuka gani an haɗa shi da sunan.
Jamie yana karanta zagaye ta hanyar liquidity da ƙarfin motsi na mako-mako. Yaya kusancin hankalinka? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka gwada hanyarka. Gwada ƙwarewarka kan bayanan kasuwa kai tsaye ba tare da haɗarin jari ba a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayani da ilmantarwa wanda ya dogara kacokan kan kayan da jama'a ke iya samu: rubuce-rubucen X masu kwanan wata da aka ɗauko daga hanyoyin jama'a na X da majiyoyin da aka haɗa a kowane hasashe. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko ta zuba jari ba ne. Alƙaluman kimanin ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Kun ga kuskure, ko kuwa ku ne Jamie? Aika gyara →
An tabbatar da asusun · An lissafa majiyoyi a sama · Hanyar tantancewa · An sabunta 5 Nuwamba 2026
