@btcjvs
Mai nazari a CoinDesk wanda yake karanta Bitcoin ta hanyar farashin sayen on-chain, implied volatility da funding rate. Daga Maris zuwa Mayu ya ci gaba da cewa mafi ƙarancin farashin Fabrairu kusa da $60,000 shi ne ƙasa. Bitcoin ya hau zuwa $82,018 a ranar 11 Mayu, sannan ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 a ranar 1 Yuli. A watan Yuni ya canza ra'ayi ya ce ƙasan na iya buƙatar $50,000 zuwa $54,000. Ƙasan ya zo bayan kwana takwas, sama da haka. Rubutunsa na golden cross a watan Agusta ya kama hawan zuwa $86,597.
A taƙaice. James Van Straten babban mai nazari ne a CoinDesk kuma yana wallafa a X da sunan @btcjvs. A samfurinmu na hasashe bakwai a cikin lokacin, sakamakon shi ne 1 ya tabbata, 3 a buɗe ko gauraye, 3 sun saɓa. Mafi kyawun hasashensa shi ne golden cross na Agusta. Raunin sa shi ne ƙasa: ya faɗe shi da wuri a Mayu kuma ƙasa da yawa a Yuni.
Shafinsa na marubuci a CoinDesk ya kira shi babban mai nazari “specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment”. Ya ce ya taɓa zama mai nazarin bincike a Saidler & Co., wani asusun hedge na Switzerland, inda ya gina ƙwarewarsa ta on-chain. Bayaninsa a X yana cewa “Senior Analyst @CoinDesk @Bullish | Advisory Board Member @CoinsiliumGroup”, kuma asusun ya sa London a matsayin wurinsa.
Yawancin abin da yake wallafawa labaran kasuwa ne na yau da kullum: kwararar ETF, sayen Bitcoin na Strategy, ƙarewar options. Waɗannan rubuce-rubucen suna ba da bayanai kuma ba safai suke yin hasashe ba. Mun zana labaran da ke da sunansa kawai waɗanda suka ɗauki ra'ayi kan inda Bitcoin zai nufa, da wallafa ɗaya a X. Labari ɗaya da aka zana, na 24 Maris, an rubuta shi tare da abokin aikinsa a CoinDesk, Omkar Godbole. Mun faɗi haka a katinsa.
Wallafar X ta ranar 11 Mayu, “The end of the bear and the start of the bull begin now”, ta fita yayin da yake ambaton bidiyon CoinDesk na hirarsa da Michael Saylor. Kalmomin wallafarsa ce ta kansa, don haka mun zana ta a matsayin hasashensa.
Sources: coindesk.com (author: James Van Straten) · x.com/btcjvs (captured via api.fxtwitter.com)
Bayanai da farko, sannan tarihi. James yana ɗaukar ma'auni ɗaya na on-chain ko derivatives, kamar implied volatility, realized price, rabon RHODL ko funding rate, sannan ya tambayi abin da ya yi a ƙasan zagayowar da suka wuce. Yana taka-tsantsan a maganarsa, da “may”, “could” da “if history is a guide”. Aikinsa na bayanai yana da kyau. Hasashen ƙasa da ya ciro daga ciki sun zo da wuri a 2026.
Ya karkata ga hauhawa daga Maris zuwa Mayu, yana kiran ƙarancin Fabrairu da yiwuwar ƙasa. Ya yi taka-tsantsan a Yuni, lokacin da ya rubuta cewa ƙasan na iya buƙatar $50,000 zuwa $54,000. Ya sake nuna kyakkyawan fata a Agusta da rubutun golden cross, sannan ya yi hattara a Satumba saboda yanayin lokaci da ƙarin kuɗin ruwa na farko da Fed ta yi cikin shekaru uku.
Hasashe bakwai masu kwanan wata daga James Van Straten: nazari shida da sunansa a CoinDesk da wallafa ɗaya a X, kowanne an duba shi kalma da kalma da shafinsa kuma an zana shi a jadawali da ainihin farashi. Jimilla ita ce 1 ya tabbata, 3 a buɗe ko gauraye, 3 sun saɓa.
“That raises the possibility that another relief rally could give way to a prolonged bear market.”
An rubuta kwana ɗaya bayan ƙarin kuɗin ruwa na farko da Fed ta yi cikin shekaru uku, a $76,147. Ya kwatanta shi da Maris 2022, lokacin da Bitcoin ya hau kusan 18% bayan ƙarin farko sannan ya faɗi kusan 50%. Tun daga lokacin Bitcoin bai rufe ƙasa da haka ba. Ya hau zuwa $86,597 (+13.7%) a ranar 22 Satumba kuma yanzu yana $86,440 (+13.5%). Hawan sauƙin ya zo. Faɗuwar ba ta zo ba, ya zuwa yanzu. A buɗe.
Source“That raises the possibility that another relief rally could give way to a prolonged bear market.” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“After climbing 25% in August, BTC’s strongest month since November 2024, the market could be due for a period of consolidation, if not a correction.”
An rubuta a $78,553. Bitcoin ya yi tafiya a kwance tsawon mako biyu da rabi, ya sauka zuwa $75,590 (−3.8%) a ranar 16 Satumba, wanda ba gyara ba ne. Sannan ya keta sama zuwa $86,597 (+10.2%) a ranar 22 Satumba kuma ya ƙare Satumba a $83,640 (+6.5%). Yanzu yana $86,440 (+10.0%). Tsayawar ta zo, amma gyaran bai zo ba. Gauraye.
Source“the market could be due for a period of consolidation, if not a correction” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“Bitcoin’s improving momentum could produce a golden cross, but the rally still faces an important test.”
An wallafa da ƙarfe 15:16 UTC, lokacin da Bitcoin yake sama da $71,000. Farashin ranar shi ne $69,291 kuma na gaba shi ne $73,021. Ya yi gargaɗi cewa har yanzu yana iya zama hawan sauƙi, kuma komawa ƙasa da matsakaicin kwana 200 zai rushe hujjar. Hakan bai taɓa faruwa ba. Tun daga lokacin Bitcoin bai rufe ƙasa da $69,291 ba. Ya kai $86,597 (+25.0%) a ranar 22 Satumba kuma yanzu yana $86,440 (+24.7%), 18.4% sama da farashin washegari. Ya tabbata.
Source“Bitcoin’s improving momentum could produce a golden cross” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“If large investors are motivated to defend their aggregate cost basis, a bear market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range.”
An rubuta a $63,937. Ya ƙara da cewa Bitcoin “would likely need to trade below the aggregate realized price”, wanda a lokacin yake kusan $53,457, kafin ainihin ƙasa. Bitcoin ya faɗi ƙasa da matsakaicin mako 200 da ya ambata, zuwa $58,566 (−8.4%) a ranar 1 Yuli. Amma bai taɓa kaiwa zangonsa ba, kuma wannan shi ne ƙasan. Yanzu yana $86,440 (+35.2%). Ya saɓa.
Source“a bear market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“a number of onchain and derivatives metrics suggest the worst of the current correction may be in the past, especially as bitcoin is now trading back above $77,000.”
An rubuta a $76,759, yana jayayya cewa faɗuwar Fabrairu zuwa $60,000 mai yiwuwa ita ce ƙasan zagayowar. Bitcoin ya yi ta zamewa a duk watan Yuni, ya faɗi ƙasa da $60,000 a ranar 26 Yuni kuma ya taɓa $58,566 (−23.7%) a ranar 1 Yuli. Wannan ya yi ƙasa da ƙarancin Fabrairu. Yanzu yana $86,440 (+12.6%), amma mafi munin gyaran ya zo bayan hasashen. Ya saɓa.
Source“the worst of the current correction may be in the past” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“The end of the bear and the start of the bull begin now”
An wallafa da ƙarfe 20:57 UTC, yayin da yake ambaton bidiyon CoinDesk na hirarsa da Michael Saylor. Farashin ranar, $82,018, shi ne mafi girman farashin Bitcoin har zuwa 22 Satumba, kuma farashi na gaba shi ne $81,628. Sannan Bitcoin ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 (−28.6%) a ranar 1 Yuli. Yanzu yana $86,440 (+5.4%). Lokacin faɗuwa bai ƙare ba. Ya saɓa.
𝕏 Post“The end of the bear and the start of the bull begin now” — @btcjvs on X↗ x.com“So, if history is a guide, the bitcoin downtrend that began in October at highs above $126,000 has already ended.”
An rubuta tare da Omkar Godbole, a $70,987. Hujjar ita ce implied volatility ta kai ƙololuwa a Fabrairu, kamar yadda take yi a ƙasan zagayowa. Bitcoin ya hau zuwa $82,018 (+15.5%) a ranar 11 Mayu, sannan ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 (−17.5%) a ranar 1 Yuli, ɗan ƙasa da ƙarancin Fabrairu kusa da $60,000. Yanzu yana $86,440 (+21.8%). Yanayin faɗuwa bai ƙare a Maris ba, amma ƙasan ƙarshe ya kusa da matakin da labarin ya nuna. Gauraye.
Source“the bitcoin downtrend that began in October at highs above $126,000 has already ended” — James Van Straten and Omkar Godbole, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.comSakamakon fahimtarmu ce ta iƙirarin da aka faɗa idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashi, ba makin marubucin da kansa ba. Kowace magana an ɗauko ta kalma da kalma daga shafin da aka haɗa a katinsa. Kowane hasashe an zana shi a farashin CoinGecko na tsakar daren wannan ranar. Inda labarin ko wallafar ta fito daga baya a ranar kuma farashi na gaba ya motsa, katin yana nuna duka biyun. Yawancin labaransa suna da taka-tsantsan, da “may” ko “could”, don haka mun auna abin da labarin ya kare, ba farashi ɗaya da aka sa a gaba ba. Ba mu saka rahotannin kasuwarsa na yau da kullum ba, waɗanda suke bayyana motsi ba tare da yin hasashe ba.
Labaran James a CoinDesk da wallafarsa a X kyauta ne a karanta. Ga yadda ake biyansa, da abin da yake riƙe da shi.
Shi babban mai nazari ne mai albashi a CoinDesk. Bullish (NYSE: BLSH), ƙungiyar musayar kuɗin crypto, ita ce mamallakiyar CoinDesk, kuma bayaninsa a X ya ambaci duka biyun. Bayanin CoinDesk da kansa ya ce ma'aikatanta, har da 'yan jarida, na iya karɓar ladan da ya dogara da hannun jarin Bullish.
Bayaninsa a CoinDesk ya ce yana ba Coinsilium, kamfani da ke rajista a kasuwar hannun jari ta Birtaniya, shawara kan dabarunsa na ajiyar Bitcoin. Bayaninsa a X ya sa shi cikin kwamitin masu ba da shawara. Kamfanin da ke riƙe da Bitcoin yana samun riba idan Bitcoin ya hau.
Bayaninsa a CoinDesk ya bayyana cewa ya “holds an investment in Bitcoin”. Bai faɗi girmansa ba.
“The end of the bear and the start of the bull begin now”
11 May 2026 · ya saɓa“Bitcoin’s improving momentum could produce a golden cross”
20 Aug 2026 · ya tabbata“a bear market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range”
23 Jun 2026 · ya saɓaAn ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
James yana rubuta nazarin kasuwa na yau da kullum don CoinDesk kuma yana hira da fitattun mutane a masana'antar a shirye-shiryen bidiyo na CoinDesk. Yana kuma wallafa jadawalai a X.
Babban mai nazari a CoinDesk wanda yake rubutu kan Bitcoin, bayanan on-chain da tattalin arziki. Kafin haka ya kasance mai nazarin bincike a asusun hedge na Switzerland, Saidler & Co. Yana wallafa a X da sunan @btcjvs, da mabiya kusan 50,000, kuma ya sa London a matsayin wurinsa.
A samfurinmu na hasashe bakwai masu kwanan wata daga 24 Maris zuwa 17 Satumba 2026: ɗaya ya tabbata, uku a buɗe ko gauraye, uku sun saɓa. Rubutunsa na golden cross a Agusta ya yi daidai. Hasashensa kan ƙasan 2026 sun zo da wuri a Mayu kuma sun yi ƙasa da yawa a Yuni.
E. Bayaninsa a CoinDesk ya ce yana da jari a Bitcoin. Yana kuma ba Coinsilium, kamfani da ke rajista a kasuwar hannun jari ta Birtaniya, shawara kan dabarunsa na ajiyar Bitcoin.
Matsakaicin farashin da kowane Bitcoin ya motsa a karo na ƙarshe a on-chain, wato kimanin farashin sayen kasuwar baki ɗaya. A kasuwannin faɗuwa da suka wuce, Bitcoin ya sauka ɗan ƙasa da shi kafin ya kai ƙasa. A 2026 ƙasan ya kasance sama da shi, a $58,566.
Ba a san shi a fili ba, kuma babu adadi mai inganci. Kada ku kula da kowane takamaiman adadi da kuka gani an haɗa shi da sunan.
James yana karanta Bitcoin ta bayanan on-chain da tarihi. Yaya kusancin hasashenka? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka gwada hanyarka. Gwada ƙwarewarka kan bayanan kasuwa kai tsaye ba tare da haɗarin jari ba a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayani da ilimantarwa wanda ya dogara kacokan ga kayan jama'a: labaran CoinDesk masu kwanan wata, wallafar X da aka ɗauko daga hanyoyin jama'a na X da majiyoyin da aka haɗa a kowane hasashe. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko saka jari ba ce. Alƙaluman kimanin ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you James? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 5 October 2026
