@btcjvs
Mai nazari a CoinDesk wanda yake karanta Bitcoin ta hanyar farashin sayen on-chain, implied volatility da funding rate. Daga Maris zuwa Mayu ya ci gaba da cewa mafi ƙarancin farashin Fabrairu kusa da $60,000 shi ne ƙasa. Bitcoin ya hau zuwa $82,018 a ranar 11 Mayu, sannan ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 a ranar 1 Yuli. A watan Yuni ya canza ra'ayi ya ce ƙasan na iya buƙatar $50,000 zuwa $54,000. Ƙasan ya zo bayan kwana takwas, sama da haka. Rubutunsa na golden cross a watan Agusta ya kama hawan zuwa $86,597.
A taƙaice. James Van Straten babban mai nazari ne a CoinDesk kuma yana wallafa a X da sunan @btcjvs. A cikin samfurinmu na hasashe goma masu kwanan wata, sakamakon shi ne 1 ya tabbata, 6 ana ci gaba ko gauraye, 3 ba su tabbata ba. Mafi kyawun hasashensa shi ne golden cross na watan Agusta. Raunin sa yana kan ƙasan kasuwa: ya faɗe shi da wuri a watan Mayu kuma ƙasa da yawa a watan Yuni.
Shafinsa na marubuci a CoinDesk ya kira shi babban mai nazari “specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment”. Ya ce ya taɓa zama mai nazarin bincike a Saidler & Co., wani asusun hedge na Switzerland, inda ya gina ƙwarewarsa ta on-chain. Bayaninsa a X yana cewa “Senior Analyst @CoinDesk @Bullish | Advisory Board Member @CoinsiliumGroup”, kuma asusun ya sa London a matsayin wurinsa.
Yawancin abin da yake wallafawa rahotannin kasuwa ne na yau da kullum: kwararar kuɗin ETF, sayen Bitcoin na Strategy, ƙarewar options. Waɗannan rubuce-rubuce suna ba da bayanai kuma ba safai suke yin hasashe ba. Mun kwatanta kawai labaran da ke ɗauke da sunansa waɗanda ke ba da ra'ayi kan inda Bitcoin ke dosa, tare da rubutu ɗaya na X. Labarai biyu da aka kwatanta, na 24 ga Maris da 18 ga Satumba, an rubuta su tare da abokin aikinsa a CoinDesk Omkar Godbole. Mun faɗi haka a katunansu.
Wallafar X ta ranar 11 Mayu, “The end of the bear and the start of the bull begin now”, ta fita yayin da yake ambaton bidiyon CoinDesk na hirarsa da Michael Saylor. Kalmomin wallafarsa ce ta kansa, don haka mun zana ta a matsayin hasashensa.
Majiyoyi: coindesk.com (author: James Van Straten) · x.com/btcjvs (captured via api.fxtwitter.com)
Bayanai da farko, sannan tarihi. James yana ɗaukar ma'auni ɗaya na on-chain ko derivatives, kamar implied volatility, realized price, rabon RHODL ko funding rate, sannan ya tambayi abin da ya yi a ƙasan zagayowar da suka wuce. Yana taka-tsantsan a maganarsa, da “may”, “could” da “if history is a guide”. Aikinsa na bayanai yana da kyau. Hasashen ƙasa da ya ciro daga ciki sun zo da wuri a 2026.
Ya karkata ga ra'ayin hawa daga watan Maris zuwa Mayu, yana kiran ƙasan watan Fabrairu da yiwuwar ƙasan kasuwa. Ya koma taka-tsantsan a watan Yuni, lokacin da ya rubuta cewa ƙasan na iya buƙatar $50,000 zuwa $54,000. Ya sake zama mai kyakkyawan fata a watan Agusta tare da rubutun golden cross, sannan ya yi hattara a watan Satumba saboda yanayin lokaci (seasonality) da ƙarin kuɗin ruwa na farko na Fed cikin shekaru uku. A watan Oktoba ya zana matakan tallafi (support) da turjiya (resistance) daga bayanan farashin sayen masu riƙe (cost basis), kuma ya nuna cewa ƙasan watan Yuli watakila shi ne ƙasan kasuwa.
Hasashe goma masu kwanan wata daga James Van Straten: nazarce-nazarce tara da sunansa a CoinDesk da rubutu ɗaya na X, kowanne an duba shi kalma da kalma da shafinsa kuma an kwatanta shi da ainihin farashi. Sakamakon shi ne 1 ya tabbata, 6 ana ci gaba ko gauraye, 3 ba su tabbata ba.
“approaching a period that has historically coincided with major bear-market bottoms, although this year’s recovery suggests the timing could differ.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn rubuta a $81,328. Ya lura cewa ƙasan kasuwar faɗuwa ta Bitcoin a 2014, 2018 da 2022 sun zo jim kaɗan bayan zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi na Amurka. A wannan shekara ƙasan ya zo a ranar 1 ga Yuli, kwanaki 125 kafin zaɓen. Ƙaramin taken labarin ya ce wannan “raises the possibility that the bottom arrived months earlier”. Bitcoin yana kan $75,929 (−6.6%), har yanzu nesa sama da farashin 1 ga Yuli na $58,566. Ƙasan watan Yuli ya riƙe zuwa yanzu. Ana ci gaba.
Majiya“this year’s recovery suggests the timing could differ” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“ETF investors only recently returned to profit for the first time this year, making this a potential support level if bitcoin falls further.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa da ƙarfe 10:38 UTC lokacin da Bitcoin ke ƙasa da $84,000. Farashin ranar shi ne $85,540, na gaba kuma $83,282. Ya zana matakai biyu: farashin sayen masu saye na 2025 kusa da $88,000 a matsayin yiwuwar turjiya, da farashin sayen ETF na spot na Amurka kusa da $82,300 a matsayin yiwuwar tallafi. Turjiyar ta riƙe. Mafi kololuwar rufewar Bitcoin tun daga lokacin ita ce $84,082, a ranar 22 ga Oktoba. Tallafin bai riƙe ba. Bitcoin ya rufe a $81,686 a ranar 9 ga Oktoba kuma bai rufe sama da $82,300 ba tun 23 ga Oktoba. Yana kan $75,929 (−11.2%). Mataki ɗaya ya riƙe, ɗaya ya karye. Gauraye.
Majiya“making this a potential support level if bitcoin falls further” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“In other words, the path of least resistance appears to be higher.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn rubuta tare da Omkar Godbole, kwana ɗaya bayan ƙarin kuɗin ruwa na Fed. Labarin ya sanya Bitcoin a $78,000, kuma farashin ranar shi ne $76,371. Ya yi jayayya cewa natsuwar Bitcoin a lokacin ƙarin kuɗin ruwa, tsayawar dokar Clarity Act, man fetur sama da $106 da ƙarfin dala sun nuna juriya. Bitcoin ya hau zuwa $86,597 (+13.4%) bayan kwana huɗu. Tun daga lokacin ya mayar da duk wannan ribar kuma yana kan $75,929 (−0.6%). Ya hau, sannan ya juya. Gauraye.
Majiya“the path of least resistance appears to be higher” — James Van Straten and Omkar Godbole, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“That raises the possibility that another relief rally could give way to a prolonged bear market.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn rubuta kwana ɗaya bayan ƙarin kuɗin ruwa na farko na Fed cikin shekaru uku, a $76,147. Ya kwatanta shi da watan Maris 2022, lokacin da Bitcoin ya hau kusan 18% bayan ƙarin farko sannan ya faɗi kusan 50%. Hauhawar sauƙin ta zo. Bitcoin ya hau zuwa $86,597 (+13.7%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba. Sannan ya gangara a duk watan Oktoba kuma ya koma $75,929 (−0.3%). Wannan shi ne karo na farko tun hasashen da farashin yini ya kasance ƙasa da inda ya rubuta. Ko wannan zai zama doguwar kasuwar faɗuwa da ya yi gargaɗi a kai, har yanzu ba a sani ba. Ana ci gaba.
Majiya“That raises the possibility that another relief rally could give way to a prolonged bear market.” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“After climbing 25% in August, BTC’s strongest month since November 2024, the market could be due for a period of consolidation, if not a correction.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn rubuta a $78,553. Bitcoin ya yi tafiya a gefe tsawon makonni biyu da rabi, ya sauka zuwa $75,590 (−3.8%) a ranar 16 ga Satumba, wanda ba gyaran kasuwa (correction) ba ne. Sannan ya keta sama zuwa $86,597 (+10.2%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba kuma ya ƙare watan Satumba a $83,640 (+6.5%). Gyaran ya zo daga baya, daga wannan kololuwa, a watan Oktoba. Yana kan $75,929 (−3.3%), har yanzu sama da saukar 16 ga Satumba. Gauraye.
Majiya“the market could be due for a period of consolidation, if not a correction” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“Bitcoin’s improving momentum could produce a golden cross, but the rally still faces an important test.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa da ƙarfe 15:16 UTC, lokacin da Bitcoin ke sama da $71,000. Farashin ranar shi ne $69,291, na gaba kuma $73,021. Ya yi gargaɗin cewa har yanzu yana iya zama hauhawar sauƙi kawai, kuma komawa ƙasa da matsakaicin kwanaki 200 zai rushe wannan hujja. Hakan bai taɓa faruwa ba. Bitcoin bai rufe ƙasa da $69,291 ba tun daga lokacin. Ya kai $86,597 (+25.0%) a ranar 22 ga Satumba kuma yana kan $75,929 (+9.6%), 4.0% sama da farashin washegari kuma har yanzu sama da matsakaicinsa na kwanaki 200. Ya tabbata.
Majiya“Bitcoin’s improving momentum could produce a golden cross” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“If large investors are motivated to defend their aggregate cost basis, a bear market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn rubuta a $63,937. Ya ƙara da cewa Bitcoin “would likely need to trade below the aggregate realized price”, wanda a lokacin ya kai kusan $53,457, kafin ainihin ƙasan kasuwa. Bitcoin ya faɗi ta cikin matsakaicin makonni 200 da ya ambata, zuwa $58,566 (−8.4%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli. Amma bai taɓa kai kewayonsa ba, kuma wannan shi ne ƙasan. Yana kan $75,929 (+18.8%). Bai tabbata ba.
Majiya“a bear market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“a number of onchain and derivatives metrics suggest the worst of the current correction may be in the past, especially as bitcoin is now trading back above $77,000.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn rubuta a $76,759, yana jayayya cewa faɗuwar watan Fabrairu zuwa kusa da $60,000 watakila ita ce ƙasan zagayowa. Bitcoin ya gangara a duk watan Yuni, ya karya ƙasa da $60,000 a ranar 26 ga Yuni kuma ya kai $58,566 (−23.7%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli. Wannan ya yi ƙasa da ƙasan watan Fabrairu. Yana kan $75,929 (−1.1%), kuma mafi munin gyaran ya zo bayan hasashen. Bai tabbata ba.
Majiya“the worst of the current correction may be in the past” — James Van Straten, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.com“The end of the bear and the start of the bull begin now”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn wallafa da ƙarfe 20:57 UTC, yayin da yake kawo bidiyon CoinDesk na hirarsa da Michael Saylor. Farashin ranar, $82,018, shi ne mafi kololuwar Bitcoin har zuwa 22 ga Satumba, kuma farashi na gaba shi ne $81,628. Sannan Bitcoin ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 (−28.6%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli. Yana kan $75,929 (−7.4%). Kasuwar faɗuwa ba ta ƙare ba. Bai tabbata ba.
Rubutu a 𝕏“The end of the bear and the start of the bull begin now” — @btcjvs on X↗ x.com“So, if history is a guide, the bitcoin downtrend that began in October at highs above $126,000 has already ended.”
Farashin da ke cikin rubutun na 6 Nuw 2026 neAn rubuta rubutun da ke ƙasa lokacin da jadawalin ke farawa daga ranar farko ta lokacin farashi. Yanzu jadawalin da lissafin suna farawa ne daga farashin ranar hasashen: $70.6k (24 Mar 2026).An rubuta tare da Omkar Godbole kuma an wallafa a ranar 24 ga Maris. Wannan ranar ta riga ta fita daga tagar farashin wannan jadawali, don haka yanzu jadawalin yana farawa daga $72,920 a ranar 11 ga Afrilu. Hujjar ita ce sauyin farashi da ake tsammani (implied volatility) ya kai kololuwa a watan Fabrairu, kamar yadda yake yi a ƙasan zagayowa. Daga farkon jadawalin, Bitcoin ya hau zuwa $82,018 a ranar 11 ga Mayu, sannan ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 (−19.7%) a ranar 1 ga Yuli, ɗan ƙasa da ƙasan watan Fabrairu kusa da $60,000. Yana kan $75,929 (+4.1%). Yanayin faɗuwa bai ƙare a watan Maris ba, amma ƙasan na ƙarshe ya kusa matakin da labarin ya nuna. Gauraye.
Majiya“the bitcoin downtrend that began in October at highs above $126,000 has already ended” — James Van Straten and Omkar Godbole, CoinDesk↗ coindesk.comSakamakon fahimtarmu ce ta iƙirarin da aka faɗa idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashi, ba makin marubucin da kansa ba. Kowace magana an ɗauko ta kalma da kalma daga shafin da aka haɗa a katinsa. Kowane hasashe an zana shi a farashin CoinGecko na tsakar daren wannan ranar. Inda labarin ko wallafar ta fito daga baya a ranar kuma farashi na gaba ya motsa, katin yana nuna duka biyun. Yawancin labaransa suna da taka-tsantsan, da “may” ko “could”, don haka mun auna abin da labarin ya kare, ba farashi ɗaya da aka sa a gaba ba. Ba mu saka rahotannin kasuwarsa na yau da kullum ba, waɗanda suke bayyana motsi ba tare da yin hasashe ba.
Labaran James a CoinDesk da wallafarsa a X kyauta ne a karanta. Ga yadda ake biyansa, da abin da yake riƙe da shi.
Shi babban mai nazari ne mai albashi a CoinDesk. Bullish (NYSE: BLSH), ƙungiyar musayar kuɗin crypto, ita ce mamallakiyar CoinDesk, kuma bayaninsa a X ya ambaci duka biyun. Bayanin CoinDesk da kansa ya ce ma'aikatanta, har da 'yan jarida, na iya karɓar ladan da ya dogara da hannun jarin Bullish.
Bayaninsa a CoinDesk ya ce yana ba Coinsilium, kamfani da ke rajista a kasuwar hannun jari ta Birtaniya, shawara kan dabarunsa na ajiyar Bitcoin. Bayaninsa a X ya sa shi cikin kwamitin masu ba da shawara. Kamfanin da ke riƙe da Bitcoin yana samun riba idan Bitcoin ya hau.
Bayaninsa a CoinDesk ya bayyana cewa ya “holds an investment in Bitcoin”. Bai faɗi girmansa ba.
“The end of the bear and the start of the bull begin now”
11 May 2026 · ya saɓa“Bitcoin’s improving momentum could produce a golden cross”
20 Agu 2026 · ya tabbata“a bear market low could potentially form somewhere in the $50,000 to $54,000 range”
23 Yun 2026 · ya saɓaAn kawo maganganun kalma da kalma, a harshensu na asali, daga majiyoyin jama'a; ra'ayoyi ne da aka faɗa, ba shawara ba.
James yana rubuta nazarin kasuwa na yau da kullum don CoinDesk kuma yana hira da fitattun mutane a masana'antar a shirye-shiryen bidiyo na CoinDesk. Yana kuma wallafa jadawalai a X.
Babban mai nazari a CoinDesk wanda yake rubutu kan Bitcoin, bayanan on-chain da tattalin arziki. Kafin haka ya kasance mai nazarin bincike a asusun hedge na Switzerland, Saidler & Co. Yana wallafa a X da sunan @btcjvs, da mabiya kusan 50,000, kuma ya sa London a matsayin wurinsa.
A cikin samfurinmu na hasashe goma masu kwanan wata daga 24 ga Maris zuwa 23 ga Oktoba 2026: ɗaya ya tabbata, shida ana ci gaba ko gauraye, uku ba su tabbata ba. Rubutunsa na golden cross na watan Agusta ya yi daidai. Hasashensa kan ƙasan kasuwa na 2026 sun zo da wuri a watan Mayu kuma sun yi ƙasa da yawa a watan Yuni.
E. Bayaninsa a CoinDesk ya ce yana da jari a Bitcoin. Yana kuma ba Coinsilium, kamfani da ke rajista a kasuwar hannun jari ta Birtaniya, shawara kan dabarunsa na ajiyar Bitcoin.
Matsakaicin farashin da kowane Bitcoin ya motsa a karo na ƙarshe a on-chain, wato kimanin farashin sayen kasuwar baki ɗaya. A kasuwannin faɗuwa da suka wuce, Bitcoin ya sauka ɗan ƙasa da shi kafin ya kai ƙasa. A 2026 ƙasan ya kasance sama da shi, a $58,566.
Ba a san shi a fili ba, kuma babu adadi mai inganci. Kada ku kula da kowane takamaiman adadi da kuka gani an haɗa shi da sunan.
James yana karanta Bitcoin ta bayanan on-chain da tarihi. Yaya kusancin hasashenka? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka gwada hanyarka. Gwada ƙwarewarka kan bayanan kasuwa kai tsaye ba tare da haɗarin jari ba a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayani da ilimantarwa wanda ya dogara kacokan ga kayan jama'a: labaran CoinDesk masu kwanan wata, wallafar X da aka ɗauko daga hanyoyin jama'a na X da majiyoyin da aka haɗa a kowane hasashe. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko saka jari ba ce. Alƙaluman kimanin ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Kun ga kuskure, ko kuwa ku ne James? Aika gyara →
An tabbatar da asusun · An lissafa majiyoyi a sama · Hanyar tantancewa · An sabunta 6 Nuwamba 2026
