@GertvanLagen
Wani injiniyan Holan da ya koma karanta jadawali, kuma yana riƙe da ra'ayi guda babba: Bitcoin yana cikin igiyar ƙarshe ta wani babban zagaye da ya fara a 2009, kuma wannan igiyar tana ƙarewa kusa da $400,000–$450,000. Duk abin da yake wallafawa shi ne wannan ra'ayin, an sake rubuta shi kowane mako, tare da matakin da yake sa ido a rubuce — shi ya sa ake iya auna shi.
A taƙaice. Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen, roughly 125,000 followers, on X since December 2009) is one of crypto's most persistent Elliott Wave analysts. His X bio gives the whole framing: “MSc Systems and Control | 🇳🇱 | Macro Strategist | NFA | Strate𝔾”. Since April 2026 he has published a weekly letter, the Strate𝔾 Update, that walks the same route every time — macro pulse, then Bitcoin, then altcoins, stocks, forex — and lands on a wave count pointing at a blow-off top around $400k–$450k. The record below is the honest shape of that: his most bullish week, 5 May, landed six days before Bitcoin's May peak and was followed by a 26.6% collapse; from 17 June through 15 August he repeatedly refused to call it a bear market, and on the day he said the cycle-bottom trendline was being tested Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further before rallying more than a third; and the $82.8k line he made the whole question in September finally broke on 22 September. The supercycle target itself is still roughly 5x away.
Van Lagen ɗan Holan ne kuma ya bayyana kansa, a cikin tarihin rayuwa ɗaya tak da ya sa wa hannu da gaske, a matsayin MSc in Systems and Control da ke aiki a matsayin masanin dabarun makro — bayanin asusun X da yake riƙe tun 4 ga Disamba 2009. Ba ya bayar da wani asusun zuba jari, ko kamfani, ko tarihin da aka duba; abin da yake da shi shekaru goma ne na jadawalan Igiyoyin Elliott a fili da kuma, tun 22 ga Afrilu 2026, wasiƙar mako-mako mai suna Strate𝔾 da ke ɗaure waɗannan jadawalan da kwanan wata.
Hanyarsa tana da sauƙin karantawa ta hanyar da ba a saba gani a crypto-X ba. Kowace Strate𝔾 Update tana buɗewa da gargaɗi ɗaya — “The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don't take it as financial advice.” — sannan ta yi aiki daga sama zuwa ƙasa: manufar Fed, mai da hauhawar farashi, Russell 2000 a matsayin ma'aunin risk-on nasa, sannan kawai Bitcoin, inda yake ɗora ƙidayar igiyoyi a kan dogayen layukan dabi'a guda biyu: a ƙasa layin da ya haɗa ƙasan kasuwar beyar 2018, ƙasan Covid na 2020 da ƙasan 2022; a sama kuma layin ƙarni kusa da $450K. Matakan suna maimaituwa har watanni — $66k, sannan $82.8k — domin tsarin da yake bayyanawa yana tafiya a hankali.
Matsalar gaskiya ta ƙidayar igiyoyi ta shekaru masu yawa ita ce kusan ba ta taɓa yin kuskure a ranar da aka ƙayyade ba, don haka ya dace a rubuta kuskurensa da aka fi ambata. A 9 ga Maris 2024 ya rubuta: “By printing an ATH, BTC price doubled within 10, 18 or 84 days. A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.” Washegari U.Today ta mayar da shi kanun labari: “Bitcoin (BTC) at $200,000 Is More Feasible Than You Think.” Bitcoin bai taɓa yin ciniki a $200,000 ba — bisa ga wasiƙunsa kansu, zagayen ya kai ƙololuwa a $126k. Wannan tsarin manufa da ke sa matakansa na mako-mako a iya dubawa shi ne kuma yake haifar da lambobin kanun labari da ba su taɓa zuwa ba.
Sources: x.com/GertvanLagen (posts captured verbatim via the X syndication endpoint) · gertvanlagen.substack.com (publicly-served text of dated Strate𝔾 Update editions) · U.Today coverage used only to date and locate the 2024 post
Tsarin Igiyoyin Elliott a kan bugun makro. Van Lagen yana ƙidaya igiyoyi — impulses, expanded flats, expanding diagonals — sannan ya rataye su a kan layukan dabi'a na shekaru masu yawa, ba a kan alamomi ba. A tsarinsa, ƙasan Bitcoin shi ne shuɗin layin da ya haɗa ƙasan 2018, ƙasan Covid na 2020 da ƙasan kasuwar beyar 2022, wanda EMA/SMA na blocks 210,000 (halving) ke ƙarfafawa; rufin kuma shi ne layin ƙarni wanda a yanzu yake ƙima kusa da $450K. A kewaye akwai jerin binciken makro da ake maimaitawa — hanyar Fed, mai a matsayin kuɗin shiga na tattalin arziki, ISM da ƙidayar ayyuka, da Russell 2000 a matsayin alamar risk-on wadda a cewarsa take jagorantar Bitcoin a juyawar kuɗi. Ƙarfinsa shi ne yana ambaton matakin da zai yanke hukunci ($74k, $66k, $82.8k) ya kuma maimaita shi har sai ya karye. Raunin kuwa shi ne rashin daidaiton lokaci: ƙidaya da ke ƙarewa a $400k ba ta faɗa komai game da faɗuwar 26% a kan hanya, kuma ya ci gaba da kyakkyawan fata na tsari kai tsaye ta cikin wadda wannan tarihin ya ƙunsa.
Mai kyakkyawan fata bisa tsari, kuma da naciya. A duk wannan taga bai taɓa juyawa zuwa kiran kasuwar beyar ba — mafi muni ya kira sayarwar girgiza a cikin daidaitawa — don haka ka karanta matakansa na mako-mako a matsayin lokacin shiga cikin ra'ayin siye mai ɗorewa, ba a matsayin ra'ayi mai ɓangare biyu ba.
Nine dated calls, all of them his own: two posts from @GertvanLagen captured verbatim from X, seven from dated editions of his Strate𝔾 Update. The oldest, 4 March, has since rolled out of the CoinGecko price window and is charted from the window's first day. An honest caveat on selection — the weekly letter is a paid newsletter, and what is charted here is the portion Substack serves publicly (the subtitle and the opening of each section, which is where he states the week's thesis and the level he is watching). The paywalled remainder is not quoted, and it may contain qualifications this page cannot see. The shape that emerges: he was wrong at the top — his most bullish letter, 5 May, came six days before Bitcoin's May peak — and right through the bottom, refusing a bear-market call from 17 June onward and naming the cycle-bottom trendline on 15 August, within 0.2% of the low that followed. The through-line, a wave-5 blow-off at $400k–$450k, is roughly 5x away and is logged open, not correct.
“This week, the $82.8k lower high was finally broken with a strong move higher, shifting the structure from a downtrend to a broken downtrend. This creates a potential double-bottom setup, with the red horizontal line as the neckline and a lower-timeframe target around $120k.”
The week his $82,800 line finally broke, he turned it into a pattern: a double bottom with a lower-timeframe target around $120,000, with BTC at $84,076. So far it is holding but not going: the dip since was only $83,479 (−0.7%) on 29 September — still above the $82.8k he says now has to hold as support — and the best close is $86,490 (+2.9%) on 5 October. At $84,009 (−0.1%) the target is another +42.8% away, so this is logged open.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 39 | Q3 | 2026, “BTC clears $82.8k breaking the 1-year downtrend (!)”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“Ethereum set to print higher high on weekly chart.”
The headline thesis of that week's letter, stated in its subtitle with ETH at $2,515. It printed: after a −4.7% dip to $2,397 on the 16th, Ethereum ran to $2,775 (+10.4%) on 22 September — the highest price in the whole window — and sits at $2,608 (+3.7%). A small, precise call that did what he said within ten days.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 37 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 12 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“the $82,8k level really needs to be cleared first, for BTC to print a Higher High - Breaking the cascade of lower lows and lower highs since the $126k top”
With BTC at $79,671 he refused to call the rally a trend change until $82,800 broke — “The $82.8k lower high was not yet defeated.” It dipped first, −5.1% to $75,590 on 16 September, then cleared the line on 22 September at $86,597 (+8.7%), the highest close of the window and the first higher high since the $126k top. It sits at $84,009 (+5.4%), still above matakin da aka ambata. He named the trigger, it broke, and price did what he said it would after — now logged played out (it was open on this page until then).
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 36 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 5 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
His best call of the window. With BTC at $62,984 he said it was “currently testing the lower blue trendline connecting the major 2018 bear-market low, the 2020 Covid low, and the 2022 bear-market low” and read it as cycle-bottom confluence. Bitcoin fell just 0.2% further — to $62,844 on 17 August — then ran to $86,597 (+37.5%) by 22 September and trades at $84,009 (+33.4%). The $450K end of that same count remains untouched.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 33 | Q3 | 2026, “Risk-on strengthens as Bitcoin hits historical bottom trend”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“I anticipate this mid-cycle correction to reverse in the orange zone and first blow-off into the blue Euphoria zone, before it enters the actual bear market.”
Called the summer chop a mid-cycle correction due to reverse, with BTC at $63,917. It reversed almost immediately: the deepest dip after was $62,773 (−1.8%) on 2 August, then $86,597 (+35.5%) on 22 September, now $84,009 (+31.4%). The blow-off he framed it against is a $400k target — that part has not happened.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 31 | Q3 | 2026, “Summer Sideways - Extremely boring”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In this regard, I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
The first edition in this window to state it in capitals, with BTC at $65,619 stalling under the $66k resistance he had named. He was right about the regime and early on the price: Bitcoin fell another 10.7% to $58,566 on 1 July — the low of the whole window — before running to $86,597 (+32.0%) on 22 September and settling at $84,009 (+28.0%). He repeated this line almost verbatim for five straight weeks; this is where it starts.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 25 | Q2 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 17 Jun 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“$ETH is printing a highly complex Expanding Diagonal, consisting of 5 corrective waves in a triangular structure. Wave c of 5 of ⑤ is the final blow-off style impulse, targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k”
Direction right, magnitude nowhere near. From $1,812 Ethereum first fell 13.6% to $1,566 on 26 June, then rallied to $2,775 (+53.2%) on 22 September and sits at $2,608 (+44.0%) — a good call by any normal standard. But the box he named starts at $10,000, which is another +283% from here, and ends at $22,000, +744% away. Logged open: the thesis has not been invalidated and has not paid.
𝕏 Post“Wave c of 5 of ⑤ … targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+. In this section, I will show that both the low- and high-timeframe structures point to this target.”
His most bullish letter of the window, and the worst-timed. BTC was $79,826 and he had just noted it “has now cleared the long-standing $74k resistance!”. Six days later it peaked at $82,018 on 11 May, then fell 26.6% to $58,566 by 1 July. Bitcoin did eventually get past that May high — $86,597 (+8.5%) on 22 September — and is $84,009 (+5.2%) today, but the call pointed up and the next move was a quarter off, and $400k is still +376% away.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 19 | Q2 | 2026, “Bulls need to push through this time!”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close. From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.”
Posted on 4 March — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $70,029 on 12 March. The near-term half worked: Bitcoin ran to $82,018 by 11 May, gave it back to $58,566 (−16.4%) on 1 July, then made the high of the window, $86,597 (+23.7%), on 22 September, and is $84,009 (+20.0%) now. The stated destination is not close: $400k is +376% from today's price. Up 20% is not a wrong call — but it is not the call he made, so it stays open.
𝕏 Post“my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel … at ~$400k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Mar 2026↗ x.comSakamakon shi ne yadda muka karanta matsayin da ya bayyana idan aka kwatanta da rufewar yau da kullum ta gaske ta CoinGecko, ba nasa ƙidayar ba. Farashin da ke cikin rubutun daga jerin bayanai ɗaya da aka zana jadawalan da shi. Manufofin dogon lokaci waɗanda farashin bai ma kusanci matakinsu ba an rubuta su a matsayin buɗaɗɗu maimakon a ƙidaya su a matsayin daidai, kuma alamomin gajeren lokaci na iya juyawa yayin da zagayen ke warwarewa. Idan jimla ta maimaitu a wasiƙu da dama, katin yana amfani da fitowar da ta fara bayyana a cikinta a wannan taga.
Kasuwancin shi ne wasiƙa guda ɗaya da ake biyan kuɗinta, farashinta a bayyane, tare da tattalin arzikin taro da ke zuwa da mabiya masu lambobi shida. Babu rukunin siginar, babu token, babu haɗin gwiwar musaya da muka samu — amma farashin wasiƙar shi ne ƙwarin gwiwar da ya kamata a sani, domin rabin kyauta shi ne ɓangaren da dole ya yi kama da gaggawa.
Strate𝔾 Update wasiƙar mako-mako ce ta kuɗi. Bayanan tsare-tsare da ake nunawa a shafin biyan kuɗi na jama'a suna cewa “$26.50 a month” da “$265 a year” (USD, an ƙirƙira su a Yuli 2025). Daga cikin saƙonni 23 da ke tarihinsa a 20 ga Satumba 2026, 21 na masu biyan kuɗi ne kawai — har da kowace wasiƙar kasuwa. Abin da ke a fili shi ne ƙaramin taken da farkon kowane sashe, wato abin da wannan shafin ke zanawa.
A 26 ga Mayu 2026 ya wallafa saƙonni biyu na kyauta: ɗaya na Dutch Blockchain Week mai ƙaramin take “Want a ticket? Use my discount code: GertvanLagen15”, ɗaya kuma na Proof of Talk a Louvre — “I have 10 nomination spots, and I am giving you the opportunity to be part of it!” Babu ɗayansu da ya bayyana ko lambar ko wuraren tsayawa suna da kuɗi ko kwamiti.
Shekaru yana wallafa ƙidayar igiyoyi ɗaya ta $400k–$450k, kuma masu karanta wasiƙar sun saya ne saboda wannan ƙidayar tana raye. Ba rikicin sha'awa ne a ɓoye ba — an bayyana shi a kowace fitowa — amma yana bayyana matsayinsa: a cikin watanni bakwai na wannan tarihin bai taɓa sanar da kasuwar beyar ba, har da makon kafin faɗuwar 26%.
“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
15 Aug 2026 · kwana biyu kafin ƙasa, kuma daidai“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+.”
05 May 2026 · six days before the May peak“I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
17 Jun 2026 · jimlar da ya maimaita makonni biyar a jere“A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.”
09 Mar 2024 · kuskuren da har yanzu ake maimaita masaAn ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
There is no video library to link — van Lagen has no channel of his own. His public output is charts on X and the weekly Strate𝔾 Update on Substack, which is why every call above is a timestamped post or a dated letter rather than a clip. The editions behind seven of the nine cards are public at the links on those cards; the full corpus, with the live verification log, is cited in the sources line.
Masanin dabarun makro ɗan Holan kuma mai nazarin Igiyoyin Elliott wanda ke wallafa nazarin jadawalin Bitcoin ga kusan mabiya 125,000 a X a matsayin @GertvanLagen, kuma tun Afrilu 2026 yake fitar da wasiƙar mako-mako ta kuɗi, Strate𝔾 Update. Bayanin kansa ya ce yana da MSc in Systems and Control; bai bayyana wani asusun zuba jari, kamfani ko tarihin da aka duba ba.
Ƙidayar Igiyoyin Elliott da yake riƙe da ita tana sanya ƙololuwar fashewa ta igiya ta 5 ta babban zagaye da ya fara 2009 a saman layin dabi'a na tashar sa — wanda ya ƙiyasta kusan $400,000 kuma, a wasiƙun Agusta 2026, “currently around $450K”. Ba a ma kusanci wannan manufa ba: tana kusan 5x farashin yau, kuma wannan fayil ɗin ya rubuta ta a matsayin buɗaɗɗiya, ba daidai ba.
Ba a san ta a fili ba kuma ba a iya tabbatar da ita. Bai bayyana asusun zuba jari, kamfani ko girman matsayinsa ba; kasuwancin da kawai ake gani shi ne Substack na kuɗi kan $26.50 a wata. Ka yi watsi da duk wata lamba da aka manne wa sunansa — babu wadda aka tabbatar.
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the record cuts both ways: of nine dated calls we charted, five played out, three are open and one went clearly against him — he was at his most bullish six days before Bitcoin's May peak, and he called the cycle-bottom trendline two days before a local low that undercut him by only 0.2%, ahead of a rally of more than a third. His best-known long-term call, $200k before the April 2024 halving, never happened. Treat his letters as a dated, checkable opinion — never trade them blindly.
Van Lagen yana janye kallo har hayaniya ta ɓace: ƙidayar igiyoyi guda, layin dabi'a guda, inda za a kai guda shekaru nesa. Yaya kusancin hankalinka — ka auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu sa hanyarka aiki. Gwada fifikonka kan bayanan kasuwa na kai tsaye — babu haɗarin jari — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayar da bayani da ilimi wanda ya dogara sosai kan kayan da ke a fili — saƙonninsa masu kwanan wata a X da rubutun da ake bayarwa a fili na fitowar wasiƙarsa masu kwanan wata, an haɗa su a kowane kira. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko saka hannun jari ba ne. Lambobin kusan ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Gert? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 7 October 2026
