@GertvanLagen
Wani injiniyan Holan da ya koma karanta jadawali, kuma yana riƙe da ra'ayi guda babba: Bitcoin yana cikin igiyar ƙarshe ta wani babban zagaye da ya fara a 2009, kuma wannan igiyar tana ƙarewa kusa da $400,000–$450,000. Duk abin da yake wallafawa shi ne wannan ra'ayin, an sake rubuta shi kowane mako, tare da matakin da yake sa ido a rubuce — shi ya sa ake iya auna shi.
A taƙaice. Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen, kusan mabiya 125,000, yana kan X tun Disamba 2009) yana daga cikin masu nazarin Igiyoyin Elliott mafi naciya a fannin crypto. Bayanin sa a X ya ƙunshi dukan tsarin: “MSc Systems and Control | 🇳🇱 | Macro Strategist | NFA | Strate𝔾”. Tun Afrilu 2026 yana fitar da wasiƙar mako-mako, Strate𝔾 Update, wadda kullum tana bin hanya ɗaya — bugun makro, sannan Bitcoin, sannan altcoins, hannayen jari, forex — sai ta sauka kan ƙidayar igiyoyi da ke nuna ƙololuwar fashewa kusa da $400k–$450k. Tarihin da ke ƙasa shi ne siffar gaskiya ta wannan: makonsa mafi kyakkyawan fata, 5 ga Mayu, ya faɗo kwana shida kafin rufewar Bitcoin mafi girma a wannan taga, sannan faɗuwar 26.6% ta biyo baya; daga 17 ga Yuni zuwa 15 ga Agusta ya ƙi kiran hakan kasuwar beyar sau da sau, kuma a ranar da ya ce ana gwada layin dabi'ar ƙasan zagaye, Bitcoin ya ƙara faɗuwa da 0.2% kaɗai kafin ya tashi 29.0%. Manufar babban zagaye kanta har yanzu tana kusan 5x nesa.
Van Lagen ɗan Holan ne kuma ya bayyana kansa, a cikin tarihin rayuwa ɗaya tak da ya sa wa hannu da gaske, a matsayin MSc in Systems and Control da ke aiki a matsayin masanin dabarun makro — bayanin asusun X da yake riƙe tun 4 ga Disamba 2009. Ba ya bayar da wani asusun zuba jari, ko kamfani, ko tarihin da aka duba; abin da yake da shi shekaru goma ne na jadawalan Igiyoyin Elliott a fili da kuma, tun 22 ga Afrilu 2026, wasiƙar mako-mako mai suna Strate𝔾 da ke ɗaure waɗannan jadawalan da kwanan wata.
Hanyarsa tana da sauƙin karantawa ta hanyar da ba a saba gani a crypto-X ba. Kowace Strate𝔾 Update tana buɗewa da gargaɗi ɗaya — “The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don't take it as financial advice.” — sannan ta yi aiki daga sama zuwa ƙasa: manufar Fed, mai da hauhawar farashi, Russell 2000 a matsayin ma'aunin risk-on nasa, sannan kawai Bitcoin, inda yake ɗora ƙidayar igiyoyi a kan dogayen layukan dabi'a guda biyu: a ƙasa layin da ya haɗa ƙasan kasuwar beyar 2018, ƙasan Covid na 2020 da ƙasan 2022; a sama kuma layin ƙarni kusa da $450K. Matakan suna maimaituwa har watanni — $66k, sannan $82.8k — domin tsarin da yake bayyanawa yana tafiya a hankali.
Matsalar gaskiya ta ƙidayar igiyoyi ta shekaru masu yawa ita ce kusan ba ta taɓa yin kuskure a ranar da aka ƙayyade ba, don haka ya dace a rubuta kuskurensa da aka fi ambata. A 9 ga Maris 2024 ya rubuta: “By printing an ATH, BTC price doubled within 10, 18 or 84 days. A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.” Washegari U.Today ta mayar da shi kanun labari: “Bitcoin (BTC) at $200,000 Is More Feasible Than You Think.” Bitcoin bai taɓa yin ciniki a $200,000 ba — bisa ga wasiƙunsa kansu, zagayen ya kai ƙololuwa a $126k. Wannan tsarin manufa da ke sa matakansa na mako-mako a iya dubawa shi ne kuma yake haifar da lambobin kanun labari da ba su taɓa zuwa ba.
Sources: x.com/GertvanLagen (posts captured verbatim via the X syndication endpoint) · gertvanlagen.substack.com (publicly-served text of dated Strate𝔾 Update editions) · U.Today coverage used only to date and locate the 2024 post
Tsarin Igiyoyin Elliott a kan bugun makro. Van Lagen yana ƙidaya igiyoyi — impulses, expanded flats, expanding diagonals — sannan ya rataye su a kan layukan dabi'a na shekaru masu yawa, ba a kan alamomi ba. A tsarinsa, ƙasan Bitcoin shi ne shuɗin layin da ya haɗa ƙasan 2018, ƙasan Covid na 2020 da ƙasan kasuwar beyar 2022, wanda EMA/SMA na blocks 210,000 (halving) ke ƙarfafawa; rufin kuma shi ne layin ƙarni wanda a yanzu yake ƙima kusa da $450K. A kewaye akwai jerin binciken makro da ake maimaitawa — hanyar Fed, mai a matsayin kuɗin shiga na tattalin arziki, ISM da ƙidayar ayyuka, da Russell 2000 a matsayin alamar risk-on wadda a cewarsa take jagorantar Bitcoin a juyawar kuɗi. Ƙarfinsa shi ne yana ambaton matakin da zai yanke hukunci ($74k, $66k, $82.8k) ya kuma maimaita shi har sai ya karye. Raunin kuwa shi ne rashin daidaiton lokaci: ƙidaya da ke ƙarewa a $400k ba ta faɗa komai game da faɗuwar 26% a kan hanya, kuma ya ci gaba da kyakkyawan fata na tsari kai tsaye ta cikin wadda wannan tarihin ya ƙunsa.
Mai kyakkyawan fata bisa tsari, kuma da naciya. A duk wannan taga bai taɓa juyawa zuwa kiran kasuwar beyar ba — mafi muni ya kira sayarwar girgiza a cikin daidaitawa — don haka ka karanta matakansa na mako-mako a matsayin lokacin shiga cikin ra'ayin siye mai ɗorewa, ba a matsayin ra'ayi mai ɓangare biyu ba.
Kira takwas masu kwanan wata a cikin tagar farashi ta CoinGecko, dukansu nasa ne: saƙonni biyu daga @GertvanLagen da aka ɗauko kalma da kalma daga X, da shida daga fitowar Strate𝔾 Update masu kwanan wata. Gargaɗi na gaskiya kan zaɓi — wasiƙar mako-mako ana biyan kuɗi ce, kuma abin da aka zana a nan shi ne ɓangaren da Substack ke bayarwa a fili (ƙaramin taken da farkon kowane sashe — inda yake faɗin ra'ayin makon da matakin da yake sa ido). Ba a faɗi ɓangaren da ke bayan bangon biya ba, kuma yana iya ƙunsar sharuɗɗan da wannan shafin ba ya gani. Siffar da ta fito: ya yi kuskure a ƙololuwa — wasiƙarsa mafi kyakkyawan fata, 5 ga Mayu, ta fito kwana shida kafin rufewar Bitcoin mafi girma a tagar — kuma ya yi daidai a duk faɗin ƙasa, yana ƙin kiran kasuwar beyar tun 17 ga Yuni sannan ya ambaci layin dabi'ar ƙasan zagaye a 15 ga Agusta, cikin 0.2% na ƙasan da ya biyo baya. Zaren da ke gudana, fashewar igiya ta 5 a $400k–$450k, tana kusan 5x nesa kuma an rubuta ta a matsayin buɗaɗɗiya, ba daidai ba.
“Ethereum set to print higher high on weekly chart.”
Babban ra'ayin wasiƙar wannan makon, da aka sa a ƙaramin takenta, lokacin da ETH ke $2,515. Ya cika: Ethereum ya kai $2,632 (+4.7%) a 20 ga Satumba — farashi mafi girma a duk tagar — bayan faɗuwar −4.7% zuwa $2,397 a rana ta 16, kuma yanzu yana $2,575 (+2.4%). Ƙaramin kira ne, madaidaici, na kwana takwas, wanda ya yi daidai abin da ya faɗa.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 37 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 12 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“the $82,8k level really needs to be cleared first, for BTC to print a Higher High - Breaking the cascade of lower lows and lower highs since the $126k top”
Da BTC a $79,671 ya ƙi kiran hauhawar canjin dabi'a har sai $82,800 ya karye. Bai taɓa karyewa ba: mafi kyawun abin da Bitcoin ya samu tun daga lokacin shi ne $81,236 (+2.0%) a 20 ga Satumba, tare da faɗuwar −5.1% zuwa $75,590 a tsakani, kuma yanzu yana $80,368 (+0.9%). Karatun tsarinsa — “The $82.8k lower high was not yet defeated” — har yanzu yana nan, shi ya sa aka rubuta wannan a matsayin buɗaɗɗe maimakon daidai ko kuskure.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 36 | Q3 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 5 Sep 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
Kiransa mafi kyau a tagar. Da BTC a $62,984 ya ce farashin yana “currently testing the lower blue trendline connecting the major 2018 bear-market low, the 2020 Covid low, and the 2022 bear-market low” sannan ya karanta hakan a matsayin haɗuwar ƙasan zagaye. Bitcoin ya ƙara faɗuwa da 0.2% kawai — zuwa $62,844 a 17 ga Agusta — sannan ya kai $81,265 (+29.0%) a 4 ga Satumba kuma yana ciniki a $80,368 (+27.6%). Gefen $450K na wannan ƙidaya ɗaya har yanzu bai taɓu ba.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 33 | Q3 | 2026, “Risk-on strengthens as Bitcoin hits historical bottom trend”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“I anticipate this mid-cycle correction to reverse in the orange zone and first blow-off into the blue Euphoria zone, before it enters the actual bear market.”
Ya kira tsayuwar bazara gyara na tsakiyar zagaye da zai juya, lokacin da BTC ke $63,917. Ya juya kusan nan take: faɗuwa mafi zurfi bayan haka ita ce $62,773 (−1.8%) a 2 ga Agusta, sannan $81,265 (+27.1%) a 4 ga Satumba, yanzu $80,368 (+25.7%). Fashewar da ya ɗora hakan a kanta manufa ce ta $400k — wannan ɓangaren bai faru ba.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 31 | Q3 | 2026, “Summer Sideways - Extremely boring”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“In this regard, I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
Fitowa ta farko a wannan taga da ta rubuta hakan da manyan baƙaƙe, lokacin da BTC ke $65,619 a makale ƙarƙashin matakin hana ci gaba na $66k da shi kansa ya ambata. Ya yi daidai game da yanayin kasuwa amma ya yi gaggawa game da farashi: Bitcoin ya ƙara faɗuwa da 10.7% zuwa $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli — ƙasan duk tagar — kafin ya kai $81,265 (+23.8%) ya kuma tsaya a $80,368 (+22.5%). Wannan jimlar ya maimaita ta kusan kalma da kalma makonni biyar a jere; a nan ta fara.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 25 | Q2 | 2026 (gertvanlagen.substack.com, 17 Jun 2026)↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“$ETH is printing a highly complex Expanding Diagonal, consisting of 5 corrective waves in a triangular structure. Wave c of 5 of ⑤ is the final blow-off style impulse, targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k”
Hanya daidai, girman kuwa nesa ƙwarai. Daga $1,812 Ethereum ya fara faɗuwa da 13.6% zuwa $1,566 a 26 ga Yuni, sannan ya tashi zuwa $2,632 (+45.3%) kuma yanzu yana $2,575 (+42.1%) — a kowane ma'auni na yau da kullum, kira mai kyau na makonni shida. Amma akwatin da ya ambata yana farawa daga $10,000, wato +288% daga nan, ya ƙare a $22,000, wato +754% nesa. An rubuta shi a matsayin buɗaɗɗe: ba a ƙaryata ra'ayin ba kuma bai biya ba.
𝕏 Post“Wave c of 5 of ⑤ … targeting the orange box ±$10k-$22k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+. In this section, I will show that both the low- and high-timeframe structures point to this target.”
Wasiƙarsa mafi kyakkyawan fata a tagar, kuma mafi muni a lokaci. BTC yana $79,826 kuma sai da ya rubuta cewa farashin “has now cleared the long-standing $74k resistance!”. Ya kai $82,018 (+2.7%) kwana shida bayan haka — rufewa mafi girma a tagar — sannan ya faɗi 26.6% zuwa $58,566 zuwa 1 ga Yuli. Yau Bitcoin ya koma $80,368 (+0.7%), don haka matsayin yana kusan daidai bayan watanni biyar, amma kiran kansa ya nuna sama alhali motsi na gaba ya kwashe kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu.
SourceStrate𝔾 Update — Week 19 | Q2 | 2026, “Bulls need to push through this time!”↗ gertvanlagen.substack.com“#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close. From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.”
Ra'ayin duka a saƙo ɗaya, lokacin da BTC ke $68,287. Rabin gajeren lokaci ya yi aiki: Bitcoin ya kai $82,018 (+20.1%) zuwa 11 ga Mayu kafin ya mayar da duka zuwa $58,566 (−14.2%) a 1 ga Yuli, kuma yanzu yana $80,368 (+17.7%). Inda ya ce zai kai kuwa a'a: $400k yana +397% daga farashin yau. Hauhawar 17.7% ba kuskuren kira ba ne — amma ba shi ne kiran da ya yi ba, don haka ya kasance buɗaɗɗe.
𝕏 Post“my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel … at ~$400k” — @GertvanLagen, 4 Mar 2026↗ x.comSakamakon shi ne yadda muka karanta matsayin da ya bayyana idan aka kwatanta da rufewar yau da kullum ta gaske ta CoinGecko, ba nasa ƙidayar ba. Farashin da ke cikin rubutun daga jerin bayanai ɗaya da aka zana jadawalan da shi. Manufofin dogon lokaci waɗanda farashin bai ma kusanci matakinsu ba an rubuta su a matsayin buɗaɗɗu maimakon a ƙidaya su a matsayin daidai, kuma alamomin gajeren lokaci na iya juyawa yayin da zagayen ke warwarewa. Idan jimla ta maimaitu a wasiƙu da dama, katin yana amfani da fitowar da ta fara bayyana a cikinta a wannan taga.
Kasuwancin shi ne wasiƙa guda ɗaya da ake biyan kuɗinta, farashinta a bayyane, tare da tattalin arzikin taro da ke zuwa da mabiya masu lambobi shida. Babu rukunin siginar, babu token, babu haɗin gwiwar musaya da muka samu — amma farashin wasiƙar shi ne ƙwarin gwiwar da ya kamata a sani, domin rabin kyauta shi ne ɓangaren da dole ya yi kama da gaggawa.
Strate𝔾 Update wasiƙar mako-mako ce ta kuɗi. Bayanan tsare-tsare da ake nunawa a shafin biyan kuɗi na jama'a suna cewa “$26.50 a month” da “$265 a year” (USD, an ƙirƙira su a Yuli 2025). Daga cikin saƙonni 23 da ke tarihinsa a 20 ga Satumba 2026, 21 na masu biyan kuɗi ne kawai — har da kowace wasiƙar kasuwa. Abin da ke a fili shi ne ƙaramin taken da farkon kowane sashe, wato abin da wannan shafin ke zanawa.
A 26 ga Mayu 2026 ya wallafa saƙonni biyu na kyauta: ɗaya na Dutch Blockchain Week mai ƙaramin take “Want a ticket? Use my discount code: GertvanLagen15”, ɗaya kuma na Proof of Talk a Louvre — “I have 10 nomination spots, and I am giving you the opportunity to be part of it!” Babu ɗayansu da ya bayyana ko lambar ko wuraren tsayawa suna da kuɗi ko kwamiti.
Shekaru yana wallafa ƙidayar igiyoyi ɗaya ta $400k–$450k, kuma masu karanta wasiƙar sun saya ne saboda wannan ƙidayar tana raye. Ba rikicin sha'awa ne a ɓoye ba — an bayyana shi a kowace fitowa — amma yana bayyana matsayinsa: a cikin watanni bakwai na wannan tarihin bai taɓa sanar da kasuwar beyar ba, har da makon kafin faɗuwar 26%.
“In other words, the present setup resembles cycle-bottom confluence within the final wave, rather than the beginning of a new bear-market regime.”
15 Aug 2026 · kwana biyu kafin ƙasa, kuma daidai“Bitcoin is set to surge toward $400k+.”
05 May 2026 · kwana shida kafin ƙololuwar tagar“I anticipate this final crypto shake-out as part of a consolidation phase, NOT the start of a bear market.”
17 Jun 2026 · jimlar da ya maimaita makonni biyar a jere“A move to $200k before the halving gets increasingly more feasible.”
09 Mar 2024 · kuskuren da har yanzu ake maimaita masaAn ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Babu ɗakin karatun bidiyo da za a haɗa — van Lagen ba shi da tashar kansa. Abin da yake fitarwa a fili shi ne jadawalai a X da Strate𝔾 Update na mako-mako a Substack, shi ya sa kowane kira a sama saƙo ne mai alamar lokaci ko wasiƙa mai kwanan wata, ba yanki na bidiyo ba. Fitowar da ke bayan shida daga cikin katunan takwas suna a fili ta hanyoyin da ke kan waɗannan katunan; duk tarin bayanan, tare da tarihin tabbatarwa kai tsaye, an ambace shi a layin tushe.
Masanin dabarun makro ɗan Holan kuma mai nazarin Igiyoyin Elliott wanda ke wallafa nazarin jadawalin Bitcoin ga kusan mabiya 125,000 a X a matsayin @GertvanLagen, kuma tun Afrilu 2026 yake fitar da wasiƙar mako-mako ta kuɗi, Strate𝔾 Update. Bayanin kansa ya ce yana da MSc in Systems and Control; bai bayyana wani asusun zuba jari, kamfani ko tarihin da aka duba ba.
Ƙidayar Igiyoyin Elliott da yake riƙe da ita tana sanya ƙololuwar fashewa ta igiya ta 5 ta babban zagaye da ya fara 2009 a saman layin dabi'a na tashar sa — wanda ya ƙiyasta kusan $400,000 kuma, a wasiƙun Agusta 2026, “currently around $450K”. Ba a ma kusanci wannan manufa ba: tana kusan 5x farashin yau, kuma wannan fayil ɗin ya rubuta ta a matsayin buɗaɗɗiya, ba daidai ba.
Ba a san ta a fili ba kuma ba a iya tabbatar da ita. Bai bayyana asusun zuba jari, kamfani ko girman matsayinsa ba; kasuwancin da kawai ake gani shi ne Substack na kuɗi kan $26.50 a wata. Ka yi watsi da duk wata lamba da aka manne wa sunansa — babu wadda aka tabbatar.
Mai sharhi ne, ba mai ba da shawara mai lasisi ba, kuma tarihin yana yanka ta ɓangarori biyu: daga cikin kira takwas masu kwanan wata da muka zana, huɗu sun cika, uku a buɗe suke kuma ɗaya ya tafi kai tsaye gāba da shi — ya kasance mafi kyakkyawan fata kwana shida kafin rufewar Bitcoin mafi girma a tagar, kuma ya ambaci layin dabi'ar ƙasan zagaye kwana biyu kafin wani ƙasa na cikin gida da ya wuce shi da 0.2% kawai, kafin hauhawar 29%. Kiransa na dogon lokaci mafi shahara, $200k kafin halving na Afrilu 2024, bai taɓa faruwa ba. Ka ɗauki wasiƙunsa a matsayin ra'ayi mai kwanan wata da ake iya dubawa — kada ka taɓa yin ciniki da su a makance.
Van Lagen yana janye kallo har hayaniya ta ɓace: ƙidayar igiyoyi guda, layin dabi'a guda, inda za a kai guda shekaru nesa. Yaya kusancin hankalinka — ka auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu sa hanyarka aiki. Gwada fifikonka kan bayanan kasuwa na kai tsaye — babu haɗarin jari — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayar da bayani da ilimi wanda ya dogara sosai kan kayan da ke a fili — saƙonninsa masu kwanan wata a X da rubutun da ake bayarwa a fili na fitowar wasiƙarsa masu kwanan wata, an haɗa su a kowane kira. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko saka hannun jari ba ne. Lambobin kusan ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Gert? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 20 September 2026
