@EricBalchunas
Mutumin da ke ƙidaya kuɗi. Balchunas ba ya zana layin yanayi — yana karanta tefin kwararar kuɗi na ETF ɗin Bitcoin na spot kuma yana gaya maka abin da masu saye ke yi da gaske. A shekarar da Bitcoin ya faɗi zuwa $58,566 kuma manyan labarai suka rubuta rasuwar waɗannan asusun, iƙirarinsa guda ɗaya da ya maimaita shi ne: masu riƙe ba sa tafiya. Wannan iƙirari ne mai auna, kuma wannan shafi yana auna shi.
A taƙaice. Eric Balchunas babban manazarcin ETF ne a Bloomberg Intelligence, haɗin gwiwar mahaliccin kwasfan fayiloli Trillions na Bloomberg da shirin ETF IQ, kuma marubucin The Institutional ETF Toolbox da The Bogle Effect. Ba ɗan kasuwa ba ne kuma ba ya wallafa maƙasudai ko wuraren tsayawa. Abin da yake wallafawa kusan kullum shi ne bayanan kwararar kuɗin asusu — kuɗi nawa ya shiga IBIT da sauran ETF ɗin Bitcoin na spot, yadda hakan yake a gaban duk duniyar ETF, da abin da yake nunawa game da wa ke mallakar wannan dukiya. A duk faɗuwar 2026 matsayinsa bai canza ba: fitar kuɗi “ba ta da wata ma'ana ko kaɗan” idan aka kwatanta da girman dukiyar, masu riƙe ETF sun nuna “juriya mai ban mamaki”, kuma ainihin labarin haɗuwar Bitcoin shi ne da zinariya. Yana kuma shirye ya yi wa littafinsa alama: a 17 ga Satumba ya amince a X cewa bisa wata ma'ana da masana'antar ke amfani da ita, ETF ɗin Bitcoin sun “ƙona kuɗi da gaske”, sannan bayan mintuna casa'in ya sake cewa yana sa ran za su ninka zinariya sau uku a dukiya.
Balchunas ya gina aikinsa a ɓangaren kuɗi mafi rashin ƙawa: asusun da ake ciniki a kasuwa. Yana jagorantar binciken ETF da asusun passive a Bloomberg Intelligence, yana rubutu don tashar Bloomberg da Bloomberg Opinion, ya haɗa kai wajen ƙirƙirar kwasfan fayiloli Trillions da shirin ETF IQ na Bloomberg TV, kuma yana fitowa a sashe na mako-mako mai suna Exchange-Traded Friday. Yana da digiri a aikin jarida da tattalin arzikin muhalli daga Rutgers — kuma yana rubutu kamar ɗan jarida: laƙabi, barkwanci da nassoshin Steve Winwood da aka manne wa bayanan teburin lissafi. Shi ne marubucin The Institutional ETF Toolbox (Wiley, 2016) da The Bogle Effect (2022), bincike kan John Bogle da bunƙasar saka jarin index mai arha.
Crypto ne ya same shi, ba shi ya nemi crypto ba. Lokacin da buƙatun ETF ɗin Bitcoin na spot suka taru, damar amincewa da shi da abokin aikinsa James Seyffart suka wallafa ta zama ma'aunin kasuwa, kuma sharhinsa na ci gaba kan kwararar ranar ƙaddamarwa — ya kira shi “Cointucky Derby” — ya mayar da manazarcin ETF zuwa fuska ta dindindin a tarihin crypto. Kujerarsa fa'ida ce ta gaske kuma iyaka ce ta gaske: babu wanda ke da bayanan kwarara mafi kyau, kuma bayanan kwarara ba sa faɗin komai game da farashi.
Tarihin yana yanka a ɓangarorin biyu, kuma kuskuren da ya fi bayyana yana waje da wannan zanen. A 6 ga Janairu 2026 ya wallafa cewa ETF ɗin Bitcoin na spot suna shiga shekarar “kamar zaki”, a “$150b/yr pace”, sannan ya ƙara: “idan za su iya karɓar $22b lokacin ruwan sama, ka yi tunanin lokacin da rana ta fito.” Rana ba ta fito ba. Zuwa 6 ga Fabrairu yana bayar da rahoton fitar kuɗi ta gaske ta −$2.2b tun farkon shekara da kasuwar Bitcoin da ya kira “guguwa mai matsayi na 5”. Kuma a 17 ga Satumba, yayin da IBIT ya faɗi 34.44% cikin watanni goma sha biyu a gaban ETF ɗin zinariya da ya tashi 17.67%, ya amince da ma'anar da ta fi rashin yabo kan aikin kayansa: “Ƙona kuɗi = shigowar kuɗi ta fi bambancin dukiya tsakanin farko da ƙarshen lokacin. A wannan ma'anar hakika ya ƙona kuɗi.” Duk da haka bai janye hujjar hauhawa ba.
Sources: x.com/EricBalchunas · Bloomberg Intelligence · CoinDesk, The Block, Fortune & Bitcoin Magazine coverage
Kwararar kuɗi tukuna; farashi ba aikinsa ba ne. Balchunas yana farawa daga abu ɗaya da zai iya aunawa daidai — ƙirƙira da fansar raka'a — sannan ya faɗaɗa. Wallafarsa ta yau da kullum ita ce adadin kwarara na yau ko na mako don IBIT da dukkan ɗimbin Bitcoin na spot, an jera shi a gaban duk duniyar ETF (“top 2% among all ETFs in YTD flows”), sannan karatun abin da kwararar ke nunawa game da tushen masu riƙe. Ruwan tabaraunsa na biyu shi ne kwatancin zinariya: yana ɗaukar GLD a matsayin samfurin Bitcoin — ma'ajin darajar da ba ya ba da riba, wanda ƙunshin ETF ɗinsa ya ga riba mai ban sha'awa da kuma fari na shekaru takwas — kuma yana kallon yadda saurin canjin farashi da alaƙar Bitcoin ke matsowa kusa da na zinariya a matsayin alamar cewa manyan cibiyoyi za su iya auna girman sa a ƙarshe. Ƙarfinsa: bayanansa lambobi ne masu tsauri da babu wanda ke fitar da su da wannan sauri. Raunin tsari ne: kwarara ba farashi ba ce. Tefin kwararar sa ya ci gaba da ƙarfi a tsakiyar faɗuwa fiye da 40% — wannan ne ainihin abin da yake nufi, kuma shi ne dalilin da ya sa ba za ta iya tsare kowa daga wannan faɗuwar ba.
A tsarin gaba ɗaya mai fatan hauhawa kan Bitcoin ta hanyar buƙata — yana sa ran ETF ɗin Bitcoin za su ninka na zinariya sau uku a dukiya — amma a fili ya ƙi yin hasashen farashi. Ya kasance mai kyakkyawan fata kan tushen masu riƙe a duk makon faɗuwar 2026, har da a kololuwar da ta gabace ta.
Matsayi takwas masu kwanan wata, kowanne ko dai wallafa ce daga asusunsa na X (an ɗauke ta kuma an tabbatar da ranarta ta hanyar syndication endpoint) ko kuma magana a rubuce a cikin rahoton da mu kanmu muka sauke muka karanta. Abubuwa biyu su kasance a ranka yayin karanta katunan. Na farko, ba ya yin hasashen farashi — yana yin iƙirari game da buƙata, mun kuma auna kowanne bisa abin da dukiyar ta yi da gaske bayan haka, jarrabawa mafi tsauri fiye da wadda ya sanya wa kansa. Na biyu, babu abin da aka ƙidaya a kansa a nan, kuma wannan gaskiya ce game da kasuwa, ba yabo ba: Bitcoin ya kai ƙasa a $58,566 ranar 1 ga Yuli kuma yanzu yana $81,393, don haka duk wani matsayi mai kyau a cikin wannan taga yana cikin riba yanzu. Ainihin kuskurensa — kiran “$150b/yr pace” na 6 ga Janairu — ya gabaci ginin zane kuma yana sashen tarihi da ke sama, inda ya dace.
“I do believe the Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets.”
Yayin magana da Bitcoin Magazine TV ya sanya caca ta tsara a rikodi: ETF ɗin Bitcoin daga ƙarshe sau uku girman ETF ɗin zinariya, tare da haɗuwa a matsayin abin jawowa — “Sa'ad da saurin canjin farashi da alaƙa suka matso kusa da zinariya — a yi hankali.” Tun daga lokacin BTC ya tashi daga $76,147 zuwa $81,393 (+6.9%), kuma mafi ƙasƙancin matsayi a wannan lokaci shi ne $76,147 ɗin da ya yi magana a kai. Shaidar kwana biyu ce kan iƙirari na shekaru goma, don haka katin yana a buɗe kuma zai kasance haka. Ya kamata a karanta shi tare da abin da ya amince da shi a dandamali guda mintuna casa'in kafin nan — cewa asusun sun “ƙona kuɗi da gaske”.
SourceBitcoin ETFs Could Triple Gold Counterparts as Asset Matures — Bitcoin Magazine↗ bitcoinmagazine.com“DEBASER: Gold and Bitcoin ETFs have combined for +$7b in flows in past week, by far a record for a 5-day period as debasement trade steals spotlight from AI.”
Iƙirarinsa shi ne cewa jari yana juyawa daga cinikin AI zuwa dukiya mai ƙarfi, GLD da IBIT duka a cikin goma na sama a makon, kuma kwararar IBIT ta shekara ta koma inganta. Bitcoin ya bi, amma kaɗan: daga $78,511 ya yi ciniki a tsakanin −3.7% ($75,590) da +3.7% ($81,393) kuma yana $81,393 (+3.7%). Alkiblar daidai ce, amma motsin ya yi ƙanƙanta sosai cikin fiye da makonni uku don a kira shi an gama — a buɗe.
𝕏 Post“DEBASER: Gold and Bitcoin ETFs have combined for +$7b in flows in past week…” — @EricBalchunas↗ x.com“I feel like there's a spiritual parallel [between] GLD and IBIT.”
Kwana goma sha shida bayan ƙasan 1 ga Yuli ya ɗora ETF ɗin Bitcoin kan na zinariya: GLD ya tashi sosai a 2011 sannan ya ɗauki “shekaru takwas a cikin durƙushewa yana ƙoƙarin komawa wancan wuri” — amma “kowane zagaye ya ɗaga matsayin koli na ETF ɗin zinariya.” Idan aka karanta a matsayin hujjar “ƙasa ta riga ta kafu”, wannan shi ne maganarsa mafi kyawun lokaci a shekarar: daga $63,792 Bitcoin ya sauka kawai −1.6% ($62,773) kuma yana +27.6%, a $81,393. A lura: haƙuri yake sayarwa, ba tsalle ba — kuma rabin kwatancinsa da ya shafi faɗuwa shi ne ɓangaren da ya ciwa masu riƙe rauni tun farkon shekarar.
SourceBitcoin ETFs could mirror gold’s history of ‘spectacular gains’ and ‘painful drawdowns’ — The Block↗ theblock.co“The ETFs became such a big story they almost overtook the narrative.”
A shirin Public Keys na CoinDesk ya kira kusan dala biliyan 3 na fitar kuɗi a gaban tushen dukiya na dala biliyan 100 a matsayin “ba shi da wata ma'ana ko kaɗan”, ya ce jimillar kwarara har yanzu kusan dala biliyan 57 ce a gaban kololuwar dala biliyan 63, kuma ya ce ya kamata labarin ya koma kan Bitcoin a matsayin garkuwa daga raguwar darajar kuɗi. Duk wanda ya karanta hakan a matsayin haske kore an tattake shi: daga $71,320 Bitcoin ya faɗi −17.9% zuwa $58,566 cikin wata ɗaya. Tun daga lokacin ya farfaɗo zuwa $81,393 (+14.1%), don haka karatun buƙatarsa daidai ne kuma lokacin ba daidai ba — ya cika, tare da faɗuwar a rikodi.
SourceBitcoin ETF outflows are noise as Wall Street doubles down on crypto — CoinDesk (Public Keys)↗ coindesk.com“Bitcoin's volatility and correlation is getting closer and closer to gold's, which is underreported and perhaps one positive from this rough patch…”
Tsaba ce ta hujjar da zai maimaita a Satumba: Bitcoin yana ƙara nuna hali kamar zinariya — ɓangaren kyau na shekara mara kyau. Kasuwa ta ƙi hakan nan take: daga $73,652 Bitcoin ya faɗi −20.5% zuwa $58,566 cikin makonni biyar masu zuwa, wanda ba hali ne kamar na zinariya ba ta kowace ma'auni. Tun daga lokacin ya hau zuwa $81,393 (+10.5%). Babu alkibla a haɗe da iƙirarin, don haka babu abin da za a warware a farashi — an rubuta shi a buɗe, tare da lura da faɗuwar a gaban abin da ya ce.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin's volatility and correlation is getting closer and closer to gold's…” — @EricBalchunas↗ x.com“Another solid week for the bitcoin ETFs, they are now officially positive in YTD flows. Wasn't a huge hole but they dug out of it like bosses despite an upwardly challenged price.”
Zagayen nasara a kan tefin kwarara, da alamar #BoomerStrong. A farashi ya yi aiki: daga $70,661 Bitcoin yana +15.2%, a $81,393 — ko da yake ta hanyar tafiya ta −17.1% zuwa $58,566. A ma'aunin kansa bai dawwama ba: a 26 ga Agusta yana sanar da cewa kwararar IBIT ta shekara ta sake zama mai kyau bayan “fitowa gaba ɗaya daga wani rami mai girma” — ma'ana matakin da ya sanar a Afrilu ya sake nutsewa a tsakani.
𝕏 Post“…they are now officially positive in YTD flows… #BoomerStrong” — @EricBalchunas↗ x.com“$IBIT is already there and then some, in top 2% among all ETFs in YTD flows. Again, incredible fortitude in face of 40% 6mo price drop and widespread media pile on.”
Babban iƙirarin Balchunas na 2026, a bayyane: mai sayen ETF bai mika wuya ba ko bayan faɗuwar 40% cikin watanni shida. Bitcoin daga $70,987 ya ci gaba ya yi ƙasa mafi ƙasƙanci a $58,566 (−17.5%) kafin ya gudu zuwa $82,018 (+15.5%), kuma yana ciniki a $81,393 (+14.7%). An tabbatar da karatun tushen masu riƙe kuma farashi ya biyo baya — amma a lura da abin da yake aunawa: juriya, ba ƙasa ba.
𝕏 Post“…incredible fortitude in face of 40% 6mo price drop…” — @EricBalchunas↗ x.com“if we adjust for the size of solana vs bitcoin mkt cap, it's the equiv of $54b in net new flows, which is about DOUBLE where bitcoin was at the same point.”
Karatunsa kan ETF ɗin Solana: bayan gyara don girma, suna jan buƙata kusan ninki biyu na saurin Bitcoin a matakin daidai — kuma suna yin hakan yayin da SOL ya faɗi da 57%, alhali Bitcoin a lokacin yana hauhawa. Bai taɓa cewa a saya ba. Daga baya SOL ya faɗi daga $91 zuwa $62 (−31.7%) kafin ya juya, ya kai $113 (+23.7%) kuma yana $111 (+21.7%). Alamar kwararar ta gabaci farashi da watanni shida kuma ta ci kashi ɗaya bisa uku na matsayin a hanya — wannan ne matsalar karanta bayanan buƙata a matsayin ciniki.
𝕏 Post“…about DOUBLE where bitcoin was at the same point…” — @EricBalchunas↗ x.comSakamakon karatunmu ne na matsayin da ya bayyana bisa farashin gaske, ba kiddigarsa ba — ba ya wallafa hasashen farashi kuma wataƙila zai ƙi a ma ba wa waɗannan maganganu maki. An tabbatar da kowace magana kalma-da-kalma a shafin da aka haɗa (ko ta hanyar ɗaukar syndication na X) kafin wallafawa. Inda endpoint ɗin X ya yanke doguwar wallafa, kawai rubutun da aka dawo da shi aka nakalto. Makin ɗan gajeren lokaci na iya canzawa yayin da zagayen ke warwarewa.
Balchunas manazarci ne mai albashi a kamfanin bayanai, ba manajan asusu ba kuma ba mai talla da ake biya ba — babu token, babu ƙungiyar sigina kuma babu hanyar tallar haɗin gwiwa a nan. Rikice-rikicen buƙatu sun fi ɓoyuwa kuma duk da haka sun cancanci a kira su da suna.
Ma'aikacin Bloomberg ne, wanda tashar sa da kayayyakin bayanansa ake sayarwa ga masu bayar da kuɗi da cibiyoyi iri ɗaya da yake rufewa. Lambobinsa na kwarara lambobin Bloomberg ne; ganin binciken sa wani ɓangare ne na darajar kasuwancin Bloomberg Intelligence.
Marubucin The Institutional ETF Toolbox da The Bogle Effect, haɗin gwiwar mahaliccin kwasfan fayiloli Trillions da shirin ETF IQ na Bloomberg TV. Shaharar sa ta jama'a an gina ta kan cewa ETF abu ne mai ban sha'awa, wanda ba mafari ne na tsaka-tsaki ba ga tambayar “shin waɗannan ETF ɗin suna da kyau?”.
Aikinsa ya dogara da layi na dindindin zuwa BlackRock, Bitwise, Grayscale, Goldman da sauran ɗimbin masu bayar da kuɗi. Yakan zama na farko da labarin ƙaddamarwa da shigar da takardu — fa'ida ta gaske wadda kuma ta dogara da ci gaba da zama mai kira wanda ake maraba da shi.
Ba mu sami wata sanarwa ta jama'a cewa shi kansa yana riƙe da Bitcoin ko wani ETF na crypto ba, kuma ba a yin wannan iƙirari a nan. Ka ɗauki ra'ayinsa a matsayin na manazarci, ba na mai mallaka ba.
“I do believe the Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets.”
17 Sep 2026 · cacar dogon lokaci“Burn cash = flows are greater than dif in assets from beginning to end of period. In that def it has in fact burned cash.”
17 Sep 2026 · ya amince a safiyar rana guda“$IBIT is already there and then some, in top 2% among all ETFs in YTD flows. Again, incredible fortitude in face of 40% 6mo price drop and widespread media pile on.”
24 Mar 2026 · hujjar shekararsa ta 2026An ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Babu ɗakin bidiyo da za a haɗa. Balchunas ba shi da tashar kansa — aikinsa na watsa shirye-shirye na Bloomberg ne (Trillions, ETF IQ, Exchange-Traded Friday) kuma bayyanarsa a crypto shirye-shiryen wasu ne, babu ɗaya daga cikinsu da ke wallafa rubutaccen kwafi da za a iya nakalto. Saboda haka ne aka gina wannan fayil ɗin haka: biyar daga cikin matsayi takwas da ke sama suna haɗawa kai tsaye zuwa wallafe-wallafensa na X, an ɗauke su ta syndication endpoint, don haka rubutun da ranar na dandamalin ne, ba namu ba; sauran ukun suna haɗawa da shafukan da muka sauke muka karanta. Mafarin da aka zana: wallafarsa kan kwararar Solana (5 ga Maris), wallafe-wallafen kwarara na #BoomerStrong (24 ga Maris, 13 ga Afrilu), wallafar haɗuwa da zinariya (29 ga Mayu), hirar Public Keys ta CoinDesk (2 ga Yuni), rubutun The Block kan kwatancin zinariya (17 ga Yuli), wallafarsa ta DEBASER (26 ga Agusta) da Bitcoin Magazine TV (17 ga Satumba).
Babban manazarcin ETF a Bloomberg Intelligence, inda yake jagorantar binciken ETF da asusun passive. Ya haɗa kai wajen ƙirƙirar kwasfan fayiloli Trillions na Bloomberg da shirin ETF IQ, ya rubuta The Institutional ETF Toolbox da The Bogle Effect, kuma ya zama fuska ta dindindin a crypto ta hanyar rufe ƙaddamar da ETF ɗin Bitcoin na spot — kalmar “Cointucky Derby” tasa ce.
A ainihi a'a, kuma wannan ne ma ma'anarsa. Yana wallafa bayanan kwararar asusu da hujjoji na tsari: kuɗi nawa ke shiga ETF ɗin Bitcoin, yadda hakan yake a gaban duk sauran ETF, da yadda wannan rukuni ke kwatanta da zinariya. Hasashensa guda babba iƙirari ne kan rukuni, ba kan farashi ba: cewa ETF ɗin Bitcoin daga ƙarshe za su riƙe dukiya sau uku ta ETF ɗin zinariya.
Eh, kuma shi da kansa ya faɗa. A 6 ga Janairu 2026 ya ce ETF ɗin Bitcoin suna shiga shekarar “kamar zaki” a saurin $150b/yr; zuwa 6 ga Fabrairu kwararar tun farkon shekara ta kai −dala biliyan 2.2. A 17 ga Satumba 2026, yayin da IBIT ya faɗi 34.44% cikin shekara a gaban ETF ɗin zinariya da ya tashi 17.67%, ya amince cewa bisa wata ma'ana asusun sun “ƙona kuɗi da gaske” — kuma bai janye hujjar hauhawa ba.
Bayanansa na kwarara sun fi kowanne kyau, kuma yana magana a fili kan iyakokinsu. Iyakar tana da muhimmanci: kwarara ba farashi ba ce, kuma tefin kwararar sa ya ci gaba da ƙarfi a cikin faɗuwar Bitcoin fiye da 40%. Manazarci ne a kamfanin bayanai, ba mashawarci mai lasisi ba. Ka ɗauki lambobinsa a matsayin gaskiya kuma ƙarshensa a matsayin ra'ayi da aka rubuta kuma aka sanya masa kwanan wata.
Balchunas yana watsi da zane yana kallon kuɗi. Yaya kusancin hankalinka — auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu sa hanyarka aiki. Gwada fifikonka kan bayanan kasuwa na kai tsaye — babu haɗarin jari — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari ne na bayanai da ilimi wanda ya dogara sosai kan kayan jama'a — rubuce-rubucensa masu kwanan wata a X da rahotannin wasu kafofin masu kwanan wata, waɗanda aka haɗa a kowane hasashe. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko zuba jari ba ce. Lambobi kimanin ne kuma suna sauyawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Eric? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 19 September 2026
