@davthewave
Manazarcin da ke bayan lanƙwasar girma ta logarithm — layin yanayi guda ɗaya da aka zana a 2018 wanda ke cewa ribar Bitcoin na raguwa yayin da yake nunawa. Ba sa yin wasan wuta na ƙololuwar zagaye; suna yin lanƙwasa guda, hasashe guda kan tsawon zagaye, da wasiƙa kowane mako biyu da ke sanya kwanan wata a kan kowane sabuntawa. Wato ana iya duba tarihin aikinsu a bayyane — har da inda ya yi kuskure.
A taƙaice. dave the wave manazarci ne na fasaha mai suna ɓoye wanda ke wallafa ginshiƙai a X tun Janairu 2018 kuma yake rubuta wasiƙar labarai kowane mako biyu a Substack. Dukkan tsarinsu ya dogara ne a kan ra'ayi guda: Bitcoin yana girma tare da lanƙwasar girma ta logarithm wadda gangarenta ke raguwa da lokaci, tare da «yankin saye» mai inuwa a ƙasanta; an zana ta a 2018 kuma ba a taɓa canza ta ba tun daga lokacin. Kafofin labaran crypto suna gabatar da su a matsayin «manazarcin da ya yi hasashen faɗuwar Mayu 2021». Kiran bakwai masu kwanan wata da ke ƙasa kalamansu ne daga wasiƙarsu, kuma sun rabu sosai bisa tsawon lokaci: samfurin farashi ya yi aiki, kalanda kuwa a'a. Kiran ƙasan da suka yi tsakiyar 2026 sun kasance da wuri kuma kuskure — burin $95,000 a Mayu, daidai kafin Bitcoin ya faɗi kashi 25%, da kuma ra'ayin «tushen yana samuwa» wanda kashi 24% na faɗuwa ya biyo baya. Sannan a 3 ga Yuli, kwana biyu bayan an buga ƙasan zagayen, sun ce farashin yana zaune a kan lanƙwasar — kuma Bitcoin bai sake sauka ƙasa da matakin wannan wasiƙar ba, ya haura da +28.5%.
dave the wave suna ɓoye ne kuma babu sauran abin da za a tabbatar: ba a taɓa buga sunan gaskiya, fuska, wurin zama, ko ma'aikaci ba. Tunda ba su taɓa bayyana karin sunayensu ba, wannan shafin yana amfani da su — al'adar kafofin labarai ta «shi» hasashe ne, ba gaskiyar da aka rubuta ba. Abin da hakika ake iya dubawa shi ne asusun. @davthewave yana da tabbaci mai launin shuɗi a X, lambar mai amfani 952150697021079552; warware wannan lambar yana ba da kwanan buɗe asusun 13 ga Janairu 2018, wanda ya yi daidai da maganarsu cewa an zana lanƙwasar «tun a 2018». Yawan masu bibiya kusan 200,000 ne.
Sunansu ya dogara ne a kan lanƙwasar girma ta logarithm (LGC): hujjar cewa ribar Bitcoin ta kashi ɗari na raguwa yayin da dukiyar ke nunawa, don haka farashi yana bin lanƙwasar logarithm mai lallaɓewa maimakon maimaita parabola masu girma iri ɗaya. A ƙarƙashin lanƙwasar akwai «yankin saye» mai inuwa. Suna sanya kwanan wata a kan gwaje-gwajenta a bainar jama'a — Maris 2020, Nuwamba 2022, kuma yanzu 2026 — kuma darajar samfurin tana nan daidai: ana iya musanta shi, abin da ba kasafai ake gani a wannan fannin ba kamar yadda ya kamata.
Abubuwa biyu masu muhimmanci ya kamata su kasance a rubuce. Na farko, tun 2022 kafofin labaran crypto suna gabatar da su a matsayin «manazarcin da ya yi hasashen faɗuwar Mayu 2021», amma wannan kiran yana shekaru da yawa a waje da tagar farashin da aka zana a nan kuma ba a ƙidaya shi a wannan shafin — dukkan kiran bakwai da ke ƙasa na 2026 ne kawai. Na biyu, wasiƙar Substack ce ta biya, tana fitowa kowane mako biyu. Kowace wallafa tana zuwa da gabatarwar jama'a ta kyauta, kuma ita kaɗai aka nakalto a nan; ba a shiga komai bayan katangar biya ba. Don haka kiran da ke ƙasa na gaskiya ne, masu kwanan wata, kuma da kalaman manazarcin kansa — amma sakin layi ne na farko na kayan biyan kuɗi, ba cikakkiyar hujjarsa ba.
Sources: davethewave.substack.com (fortnightly newsletter, free public preambles) · x.com/davthewave
Samfuri guda, dogon lokaci, ƙarancin yawan wallafa. Lanƙwasar girma ta logarithm ita ce ƙashin baya: layin yanayi na logarithm mai lallaɓewa tare da yankin saye mai inuwa, an zana ta sau ɗaya a 2018 kuma ba a sake zana ta ba. Kewaye da ita suna sanya ƙaramin kayan aiki na gargajiya — MACD a kan ginshiƙin yau da kullum / mako-mako / wata-wata, juriya na karkata, faɗaɗa Fibonacci, da hasashe mai tsauri cewa gyaran makro yana ɗaukar wata goma sha biyu. Wannan sashe na ƙarshe shi ne inda tsarin ke tsagewa: lanƙwasar samfurin farashi ce, dokar wata goma sha biyu kuwa samfurin kalanda ce — kuma a 2026 kalanda ta gaje farashi. Suna wallafa kowane mako biyu, don haka babu hayaniyar cikin rana kuma babu bin sigina — amma kuma babu damar mayar da martani tsakanin wasiƙu.
A tsari suna da fatan hauhawar Bitcoin a tsawon zagayen — lanƙwasar tana nuni sama kuma suna saye a gefenta na ƙasa — amma a bayyane suna da haƙuri, kuma a tsakiyar 2026 sun sha sanar da juyawar da wuri.
Kira bakwai masu kwanan wata daga wasiƙarsu ta kowane mako biyu, Afrilu zuwa Agusta 2026, kowanne an zana shi kan farashi na gaskiya. Wannan manazarci ne na samfuri-da-kalanda, don haka kiransa na alkibla ne kuma na tsari («saye na makro», «tushen ya kafu», «farashin yana kan lanƙwasar») maimakon ma'aunan shiga masu tsauri — mun auna su bisa abin da Bitcoin ya yi da gaske bayan haka. Tsarin a bayyane yake fiye da yadda aka saba: samfurin farashi ya tsaya, kalanda ta faɗi. Kiran ƙasa da buri guda biyu da suka yi a Mayu su ne mafi muni a wannan shafin kuma sun zo farko; gwajin lanƙwasar na Yuli shi ne mafi kyau. Domin gaskiya: kiran ƙololuwar 2021 da kafofin labarai ke danganta musu yana waje da wannan taga kuma ba a ƙidaya shi a nan ba.
“Technically, the road looks open for a move to that shorter-term target of 95K”
Kuskure mafi bayyana a wannan shafin kuma lamba guda ɗaya tak da suka ambata. A $78,512 sun ce hanya a buɗe take zuwa $95,000. Bitcoin ya kai $82,018 (+4.5%) mako guda bayan haka sannan ya tsaya — sa'an nan ya juya gaba ɗaya, −25.4% zuwa $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli. Bai taɓa kusa da burin ba. BTC yana $79,017 (+0.6%) idan aka kwatanta da wannan wasiƙar, watanni huɗu bayan haka.
SourceBTC Update / And Commentary on a Currency — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“Currently we are in the seventh month of twelve with price looking relatively strong.”
Mai taken «Hujjojin Cewa Tushen Ya Kafu», an rubuta shi a $77,429 bisa dokar gyaran wata goma sha biyu. Tushen bai kafu ba. Bitcoin ya faɗi −24.4% zuwa $58,566 cikin makonni shida masu zuwa — sashe mafi zurfi na dukkan gyaran ya zo bayan sun yi hujjar cewa ya ƙare. Yanzu $79,017 (+2.1%). A nan samfurin kalanda ne ya faɗi, ba lanƙwasar ba: dabarar lanƙwasar logarithm a cikin wannan wasiƙar ta yi daidai bayan ƴan makonni.
SourceThe Arguments for the Bottoming Base In — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“Price is still just in the LGC ‘buy zone’ signaling a macro buy for late investors looking for exposure.”
Siginar saye na makro a $74,826, kai tsaye ga masu saka jari da suka makara. Idan aka auna a matsayin kiran tarawa na dogon lokaci yana kore — BTC yana $79,017 (+5.6%). Idan aka auna a kowane gajeren zango, ya yi zafi: farashi da farko ya kai $82,018 (+9.6%), sannan ya sallama −21.7% zuwa $58,566. Duk wanda ya karanta «saye na makro» a matsayin «saye yanzu» ya jimre da kashi ɗaya cikin biyar na jarinsa. An sanya shi a buɗe: ra'ayin kiran zagaye ne, kuma zagayen bai ƙare ba.
SourceWeekly MACD Cross and Bullish Ascending Triangle — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“short term price continues to strengthen on the bounce after the recent sell-off”
Mai ƙaramin take «Yana Nuni Cewa Ƙasan Ya Kafu», a $66,293, inda aka bayyana farashi yana tsakiyar yankin saye na LGC. Da'awar ta musamman ta karye da sauri — Bitcoin ya yi ƙasa mafi ƙasƙanci makonni biyu bayan haka, −11.7% zuwa $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli. Alkiblar, duk da haka, ta biya: BTC ya kai $81,265 (+22.6%) kuma yana $79,017 (+19.2%). Kuskure na uku a jere wajen daidaita ainihin juyawar — kuma na ƙarshe: wasiƙa mai zuwa ita ce ta ci nasara.
SourceBTC and MACD Updates / Signaling the Low is In — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“the one constant [admittedly from a small sample size] is the one year correction. And the culmination of that time period is currently only 3 months away [October].”
Ra'ayinsu mai gudana kan lokacin zagaye, an faɗe shi a $63,792 tare da kwanan wata da aka ambata — Oktoba 2026 — da kuma gargaɗi mai gaskiya ba kasafai game da ƙarancin adadin misalai. Wannan lokacin bai zo ba tukuna, don haka kiran a buɗe yake ta hanyar ginshiƙinsa kuma ba za a iya ƙidaya shi ba. Abin da ya faru tun daga lokacin yana da kyau: faɗuwa mafi girma ta kai −1.6% kawai zuwa $62,773, ƙololuwa $81,265 (+27.4%), kuma BTC yanzu yana $79,017 (+23.9%).
SourceThe Constant of Time / And the LGC — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“The price of Bitcoin is now on, or very near, the Logarithmic Growth Curve [LGC].”
Kiransu mafi kyau, kuma tabbatar da samfurin bayan uku da suka yi da wuri. An wallafa shi a $61,490, kwana biyu bayan Bitcoin ya buga ƙasan zagaye na $58,566, tare da lura cewa an gwada lanƙwasar sau biyu a baya — Maris 2020 da Nuwamba 2022. Tun daga lokacin Bitcoin bai taɓa sauka ƙasa da wannan wasiƙar ba: ƙasan bayan ta ita ce ranar kanta, +0.0%. Ya kai $81,265 (+32.2%) a 4 ga Satumba kuma yana $79,017 (+28.5%). Layin yanayi mai shekaru takwas, an gwada shi karo na uku, ya tsaya.
SourceCrunch Time for the Logarithmic Growth Curve — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.com“the current chart has to be of interest for those bullish on Bitcoin as a long term asset [or currency]”
Karatun samuwar tushe a ginshiƙin wata-wata a $64,686, an tsara shi don masu fatan hauhawar Bitcoin na dogon lokaci da mabiya LGC. Ya yi aiki nan take kuma a bayyane: ƙasan bayan wannan wasiƙar ita ce ranar kanta (+0.0% — babu faɗuwa ko kaɗan), farashi ya kai $81,265 (+25.6%) zuwa 4 ga Satumba, kuma BTC yana $79,017 (+22.2%). Lura cewa wasiƙar sabuwa ce, don haka wannan alama ce ta farko a kan ra'ayin da aka tsara cikin watanni.
SourceBTC Basing Range on the Monthly Chart — Dave's Newsletter↗ davethewave.substack.comSakamakon karatunmu ne na matsayin da suka bayyana kan farashi na gaskiya, ba ƙididdigarsu ba. Kowace magana ta fito ne daga gabatarwar jama'a ta kyauta ta wata wallafa mai kwanan wata a Substack, an daidaita ta kalma-da-kalma da shafin kai tsaye (an haɗa shi a kowace katin) — ba a sake fasalta ba kuma ba a ɗauko daga bayan katangar biya ba. Kiransu na lokacin zagaye don Oktoba 2026 bai warware ba tukuna kuma an sanya shi a matsayin buɗe.
Kasuwancin a nan ƙarami ne kuma a bayyane: biyan kuɗin Substack guda ɗaya. Babu ƙungiyar sigina, babu wani token a cikin abin da muka duba, babu hanyar tura mutane zuwa musaya, kuma babu kwas. Wannan kusan shi ne tsarin ƙarfafa gwiwa mafi tsafta da wannan cibiyar ke bibiya — amma katangar biya ita ce kayan da ake sayarwa, kuma ita ce ke tsara abin da kake gani kyauta.
Dave's Newsletter — wasiƙar nazarin fasaha ta kowane mako biyu. Shafin «game da mu» ya bayyana cewa biyan kuɗi «yana ba da cikakken damar shiga», yayin da masu biyan kuɗi kyauta ke samun «gabatarwar wasiƙar». Da alama biyan kuɗi shi ne kaɗai hanyar samun kuɗi da aka bayyana.
Kowane kira a wannan shafin an ɗauko shi ne daga wannan gabatarwar kyauta. Hakika kalaman manazarcin kansa ne masu kwanan wata — amma kuma koto ne na kayan biya, don haka ka yi tsammanin tsari mafi ƙarfi a gaba da gargaɗi a ciki.
Ba mu sami ƙungiyar biya, token da ake talla, hanyoyin haɗin abokantaka/musaya, ko kwas a cikin bayanan jama'a ba. Ya dace a faɗi hakan a fili, saboda ba abu ne na kowa ba.
“The price of Bitcoin is now on, or very near, the Logarithmic Growth Curve [LGC].”
03 Jul 2026 · gwaji na uku na lanƙwasar, kwana biyu bayan ƙasan“Technically, the road looks open for a move to that shorter-term target of 95K”
04 May 2026 · burin da aka rasa — maimakon haka BTC ya faɗi kashi 25%“the one constant [admittedly from a small sample size] is the one year correction.”
17 Jul 2026 · dokar kalanda, tare da gargaɗi da kalamansuQuotes transcribed from his own public videos; stated views, not recommendations.
Babu ɗakin bidiyo da za a haɗa. dave the wave yana wallafa a wurare biyu kaɗai — ginshiƙai a X da wasiƙar labarai a rubuce a Substack kowane mako biyu — babu podcast, babu tashar YouTube, kuma babu hirar da muka iya tabbatarwa. Wannan tsari shi ne dalilin da ya sa kowane kira a sama sakin layi ne mai lokacin da za a iya nakaltowa maimakon gajeren bidiyo, kuma shi ya sa aka ambaci dukkan tarin tushen da aka tabbatar a kowace katin.
Manazarcin fasaha na crypto mai suna ɓoye wanda ke wallafa ginshiƙai a matsayin @davthewave tun Janairu 2018 kuma yake rubuta wasiƙar labarai kowane mako biyu a Substack. Ba a bayyana sunansu na gaskiya, fuskarsu, ko wurin zamansu ba. An fi saninsu da lanƙwasar girma ta logarithm, layin yanayi na Bitcoin da suka zana a 2018, kuma kafofin labaran crypto suna gabatar da su a matsayin manazarcin da ya yi hasashen faɗuwar Mayu 2021.
Samfurinsu na tushe: hujjar cewa ribar Bitcoin ta kashi ɗari na raguwa yayin da dukiyar ke nunawa, don haka farashi yana bin lanƙwasar logarithm mai lallaɓewa maimakon maimaita parabola masu girma iri ɗaya. A ƙarƙashin lanƙwasar akwai «yankin saye» mai inuwa. A cewarsu, an zana ta a 2018 kuma an gwada ta sau uku — Maris 2020, Nuwamba 2022 da Yuli 2026.
Ba a tabbatar a bainar jama'a ba. Sunansu ɓoye ne, kuma kaɗai kasuwancin da aka bayyana shi ne biyan kuɗin Substack. Ka yi watsi da duk wani takamaiman adadi — babu ɗaya da aka tabbatar.
Mai sharhi ne, ba mashawarci mai lasisi ba. Tarihin 2026 da aka zana a nan gaskiya cakuɗe ne: kiran da ya dogara kan lanƙwasar ya yi aiki, har da karatun ƙasan Yuli da Bitcoin bai taɓa sauka ƙasa da shi ba, yayin da ƙoƙari biyu na daidaita juyawar ta dokar gyaran wata goma sha biyu suka yi kuskure da kashi 24% da 25%. Ka ɗauke shi a matsayin ra'ayi da aka rubuta kuma mai kwanan wata — kada ka taɓa yin ciniki da shi a rufe.
Wurare biyu: ginshiƙai a X (@davthewave) da «Dave's Newsletter» a Substack, wasiƙa ta kowane mako biyu. Wasiƙar tana da biya, amma kowace wallafa tana ɗauke da gabatarwar jama'a ta kyauta — ita ce tushen kowace magana a wannan shafin.
dave the wave yana fare a kan lanƙwasa guda da haƙuri mai yawa: riba tana raguwa, gyara yana ɗaukar shekara guda, kuma kana saye a gefen ƙasa. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake — auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka sanya amsarka aiki. Gwada fifikonka a kan bayanan kasuwa na gaskiya — babu haɗarin jari — a gasar BuyCrypt ta kyauta mai kyautuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayanai da ilimi wanda ya dogara sosai a kan kayan da jama'a za su iya samu — wallafe-wallafe masu kwanan wata daga Substack na manazarcin kansa, an nakalto su daga gabatarwar jama'a ta kyauta da ke tare da kowace fitowa kuma an haɗa ta a kowane kira. Ba a shiga abubuwan da ke bayan katangar biya ba. Ba shawara ce ta kuɗi ko saka jari ba. Alkaluma kimanta ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you Dave? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 07 September 2026
