@_Checkmatey_
Shahararren manazarcin on-chain na Bitcoin, kuma ɗaya daga cikin 'yan kaɗan da ke buga ra'ayi mai ɗauke da kwanan wata kowane mako. Shi ne ke gina ma'aunin maimakon ya ɗauko su kawai — kuma yana faɗa a fili sa'ad da ra'ayin gama-gari ya kuskure, wanda shi ne mafi yawan abin da ya gina wannan tarihin 2026.
A taƙaice. James Check — “_Checkmate” — shi ne wanda ya kafa kuma babban manazarci na Checkonchain, kuma kafin nan ya gina ya kuma jagoranci ƙungiyar manazarta ta Glassnode, inda ya rubuta ya kuma shirya The Week On-chain. Tsohon injiniyan ƙasa ne, kuma yana karanta Bitcoin ta hanyar farashin siye, riba/hasara da aka tabbatar da kuma halayen masu riƙe, ba ta hanyar siffofin chart ba, kuma ya bayyana a fili cewa ba ya ba da siginar ciniki ko kiran cikin rana. A cikin kasuwar beyar ta 2026 ya tsaya a gefen da ba a so sau biyu — ya ƙi burin faɗuwa na $40k da na tsakiya zuwa ƙasan $40k sa'ad da dukansu su ne ra'ayin gama-gari — kuma sau biyu kasuwa ta goyi bayansa. Ya kuma kuskure wajen karanta ƙarfin dangantaka a tsakiyar Maris, daidai kafin faɗuwar 19.7%.
Bisa ga nasa labarin, Check ya “started his career as a civil (geotechnical) engineer, specialising in the design of tunnels, basements, foundations, and mines”, kuma ya kawo wannan horon — manyan bayanai, rashin tabbas, yiwuwa — cikin Bitcoin tun 2019. Yana cikin mutanen farko da suka tsara nazarin on-chain a matsayin fanni, ya ƙirƙiri ma'auni da tsare-tsaren da yanzu suka zama ma'auni na masana'antar, kuma ya gina ya kuma jagoranci ƙungiyar manazarta ta Glassnode daga 2021 zuwa 2024, inda ya kasance babban edita, marubuci kuma mai shirya The Week On-chain. Ya haɗa rubuta tsarin Cointime Economics tare da David Puell na ARK Invest.
Tun bayan barin Glassnode yana gudanar da Checkonchain — wasiƙar Substack mai sama da masu biyan kuɗi 30,000, tarin chart na jama'a, da reshen ba da shawara — yana rubutu sau biyu a mako da sunansa. Ƙa'idodin da ya bayyana suna da tsauri fiye da yadda aka saba a wannan fannin: babu siginar ciniki, babu kiran cikin rana, babu ƙoƙarin kama ainihin kololuwa ko ƙasa, abin da yake kira “a fools errand and a time sink”. Yana kwatanta aikinsa a matsayin “a balance between James Check the Analyst focusing on providing value for James Check HODLer.” Ya kuma yi magana a fili kan iyaka: “No model is perfect, and no analyst will ever predict the future correctly every time.” Wannan ba magana ce kawai ba a nan — karatunsa na 16 ga Maris 2026 cewa Bitcoin shi ne “the fittest player on the pitch” faɗuwar 19.7% ta biyo baya, kuma an zana shi a ƙasa a matsayin kuskure maimakon a cire shi.
Sources: x.com/_Checkmatey_ (posts captured verbatim via fxtwitter/X syndication) · newsletter.checkonchain.com (publicly-served text of dated editions) · checkonchain.com/about · cointelegraph.com · coindesk.com — full corpus re-fetched live by scripts/cm_fetch.py and asserted by scripts/cm_qcheck.py
On-chain da farko, halayya ce ke jagoranta, Bitcoin kaɗai. Check yana aiki daga farashin siye (realized price, farashin siye na masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci da na dogon lokaci, matsakaicin motsi na mako 200), riba da hasara da aka tabbatar, shekarun tsabar kuɗi da kuma wadatar da ke cikin riba — sa'an nan ya karanta su a matsayin ilimin halayyar mai saka jari ba a matsayin sigina ba. Manyan ra'ayoyinsa guda biyu su ne zafin farashi (faɗuwa mai tsanani da ke fitar da masu riƙe) da zafin lokaci (tsayawar gefe mai gajiyarwa da ke fitar da sauran); yana auna kasuwar beyar ta yadda aka biya kowane ɗaya daga cikinsu. Da gangan yake aiki da yiwuwa da ma'aunin kashi — amsarsa ga hasashen $40k shi ne cewa zai zama karkata a kashi 0.4, ba cewa ba zai yiwu ba. Rauninsa shi ne ɗaya gefen wannan: tsarin da aka gina bisa watanni zuwa shekaru bai kusan faɗa kome ba game da makonni masu zuwa, kuma shi kansa ya faɗi haka.
A tsarin gaba ɗaya yana da kyakkyawan fata kan Bitcoin kuma a duk shekarar 2026 bai kasance mai tsananin fargaba kamar ra'ayin gama-gari ba — amma yana bayyana wannan fata a matsayin tara a tsawon watanni, ba a matsayin burin farashi ba. Bai da ra'ayi ko kaɗan kan altcoins: Checkonchain Bitcoin kaɗai ce.
Kira tara masu ɗauke da kwanan wata a cikin tagar farashi ta CoinGecko, duk daga bakinsa: saƙonni biyu na @_Checkmatey_ da aka ɗauko kalma-da-kalma daga X, fitowar shida masu kwanan wata na wasiƙarsa ta Checkonchain, da kuma hira ɗaya da Cointelegraph. Gargaɗi na gaskiya kan fitowar shida na wasiƙar — na biya ne, kuma abin da aka zana a chart shi ne sashin da Substack ke bayarwa ga jama'a (sashin buɗewa, inda yake bayyana ra'ayinsa na makon). Sauran da ke bayan bangon biya ba a ɗauko shi ba kuma yana iya ɗauke da sharuɗɗan da wannan shafin ba ya iya gani. Siffar tarihin: ya yi gaskiya a manyan tambayoyin tsari kuma ya kuskure a ɗaya na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Kiransa na tarawa na 24 ga Fabrairu ya ambaci matsakaicin motsi na mako 200 a $58.5k; ainihin ƙasan tagar ya kasance $58,566, kashi 0.1% sama da shi. Ya ƙi hasashen faɗuwa na $40k a Afrilu da ra'ayin gama-gari na tsakiya zuwa ƙasan $40k a Yuli, kuma Bitcoin bai taɓa sauka ƙasa da $58,566 ba. Jan kaɗai shi ne karanta ƙarfin dangantaka na tsakiyar Maris wanda faɗuwar 19.7% ta biyo baya. Kiransa mai gudana — cewa $82k shi ne sansanin ƙarshe na beyoyi — an rubuta shi a buɗe, domin ba a ci $82k ba tukuna.
“What’s the difference between $58,000 and $59,000 or $60,000? Nothing,”
Da'awarsa mafi bayyana a tagar: ƙasan zagayen shi ne mika wuya na zafin lokaci a $58,000 na Yuni–Yuli, ba wani ƙasa na Oktoba da masu ra'ayin zagayen shekara huɗu ke jira ba. BTC yana $76,371 sa'ad da ya faɗi haka kuma bai taɓa sauka ƙasa da haka ba tun lokacin, ya kai $81,413 (+6.6%) yau. Kwana uku ba kome ba ne a gaban da'awar ƙasan zagaye, don haka an rubuta ta a buɗe — amma matakin da ya ambata, $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli, har yanzu shi ne bene.
SourceBitcoin cycle bottom may already be in at $58K, says analyst James Check (Cointelegraph, 18 Sep 2026)↗ cointelegraph.com“In my opinion, the equivalent level for The Bears Last Stand is $82k, which is a stone’s throw away, and I believe it will be very difficult to justify a bear case should it break.”
Matakin bayyananne da ba kasafai yake fitowa daga mutumin da ke guje musu ba, kuma madubin $95k nasa na “sansanin ƙarshe na bijimai” na Oktoba 2025. BTC yana $77,658; ya sauka −2.7% zuwa $75,590 a 16 ga Satumba kuma tun lokacin ya hau zuwa $81,413 (+4.8%) — 0.7% ƙasa da layinsa. Rufewa ɗaya kaɗai sama da $82,018 a duk tagar shi ne 11 ga Mayu. Ya kuma ce ƙasa da $58k yana “quite far from my base case”, kuma ƙasan tun lokacin shi ne $75,590. Alkibla daidai ce, amma matakin kansa ba a ci shi ba: a buɗe.
SourceThe Bears Last Stand — Checkonchain newsletter, 31 Aug 2026↗ newsletter.checkonchain.com“This scenario is not my base case view, and not what my analysis of the data suggests is the most likely setup.”
Yana rubutu gaba da “at least half a dozen bear market reports” da dukansu suka nuna ƙasa na ƙarshe a tsakiya zuwa ƙasan $40k, ya ƙi ra'ayin gama-gari — yayin da ya ba da dukan rubutun ga gwada ra'ayinsa da yanayin Bitcoin a $45k. Kiran da lokacinsa ya fi kyau a wannan shafin: BTC yana $62,279 kuma bai taɓa rufewa ƙasa da haka ba tun lokacin (ƙasan bayan haka shi ne ranar kanta), ya hau +30.7% zuwa $81,413. $40k bai taɓa kusanto fiye da $16k ba.
SourceWhat If I’m Wrong? — Checkonchain newsletter, 14 Jul 2026↗ newsletter.checkonchain.com“These are the conditions we historically see as we approach the pointy end of a bear market, where hopelessness peaks, and the maximum number of people start to truly believe the asset is never coming back.”
Rashin kula gaba ɗaya, ƙarancin ciniki, ra'ayi a ƙasa sosai — ya karanta shi a matsayin ƙarshen kasuwar beyar, ba tsakiyarta ba. BTC yana $63,937, ya sake faɗuwa −8.4% zuwa ƙasan tagar na $58,566 bayan kwana takwas, sa'an nan bai sake waiwaya ba: +27.3% zuwa $81,413. Ya ambaci babin, ba wutsiyar kyandir ba — daidai abin da yake cewa yana ƙoƙarin yi.
SourceThe Pointy End — Checkonchain newsletter, 23 Jun 2026↗ newsletter.checkonchain.com“For the folks who missed the lows, many are about to buy far too much at the next local high, and get smoked once again on the pullback.”
Yayin da bijimai ke “running victory laps” kuma BTC yana $81,437, ya gaya wa waɗanda suka rasa ƙasan kada su bi farashin. Bayan kwana huɗu Bitcoin ya rufe a $82,018 (+0.7%) — rufewa mafi girma a duk tagar — sa'an nan ya faɗi 28.1% zuwa $58,566. Duk wanda ya sayi wannan kololuwar yankin ya jira watanni huɗu kafin ya dawo kan sifili: BTC yana $81,413 yau, −0.0% daga ranar gargaɗinsa.
SourceSweaty, Sweaty Bears — Checkonchain newsletter, 7 May 2026↗ newsletter.checkonchain.com“consider that on a mean reversion basis, averaging relative to nine anchors (a mix of technical, onchain, trend, fast, slow etc), it is a Q 0.4 event. Lower than $2 Bitcoin in 2011.”
Ba buri ba — yiwuwa ce. Gaba da lambar faɗuwa mafi hayaniya ta bazara, ya sanya $40k a kashi 0.4 na dukan karkatar yau da kullum a samfura tara na tushe, ya kuma ƙara: “there’s no zero probability in markets, but this would be a near-unprecedented outcome”. BTC yana $76,326; rufewa mafi zurfi tun lokacin ita ce $58,566 (−23.3%) — mai raɗaɗi, duk da haka har yanzu $18.5k sama da matakin da ya kore. Yanzu yana $81,413 (+6.7%).
𝕏 Post@_Checkmatey_ on the $40k bear case — 22 Apr 2026 (cited by CoinDesk, 25 Apr)↗ x.com“There isn’t much value in sugar coating it, as the world is in a very tricky spot, and the odds that conditions improve before they get worse…are not great.”
Makonni biyu bayan kuskuren da ke ƙasa, ya zama mai taka tsantsan yayin da man fetur ya wuce $100 kuma BTC ya sauka ƙasa da $65k, ya kuma nemi inda mika wuya na zafin lokaci zai sami ƙasansa. Da farko ya tsananta, kamar yadda ya faɗa: daga $65,947 BTC ya faɗi −11.2% zuwa $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli kafin ya juya ya hau +24.4% zuwa $82,018. Yanzu yana $81,413 (+23.5%) — jerin da ya bayyana, a jerin da ya bayyana shi.
SourceTime Pain Usually Ends With A Bang — Checkonchain newsletter, 30 Mar 2026↗ newsletter.checkonchain.com“Today’s post will be a study of why this may be the case, and my read on why Bitcoin appears to be the fittest player on the pitch right now.”
Wanda ya juya masa baya. Bitcoin ya hau 5% a watan gaba da kasuwar da ke guje wa haɗari, kuma ya karanta wannan ƙarfin dangantaka a matsayin alama mai kyau lokacin da BTC yake $72,934. Maimakon haka Bitcoin ne ya jagoranci faɗuwar: zamewa na −19.7% zuwa $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli, kuma murmurewa ta ɗauki har Agusta. BTC yanzu yana $81,413 (+11.6%), don haka matsayin ya dawo daidai a ƙarshe — amma watanni uku masu zuwa sun tafi wata hanya, kuma an rubuta wannan a matsayin kuskure.
SourceBitcoin Up, Everything Else Down? — Checkonchain newsletter, 16 Mar 2026↗ newsletter.checkonchain.com“If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when?”
Kiran da wannan tarihin duka ya dogara a kansa. A tsakiyar firgici, BTC yana $64,738, ya ce “Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains” kuma ya shawarci a saya a matsakaicin farashi na tsawon watanni shida maimakon farautar wutsiyar kyandir — yayin da ya gargaɗa a fili cewa ƙasa masu zurfi sukan zo da farko. Sassan biyu sun tabbata. Ya sanya matsakaicin motsi na mako 200 a $58.5k; ainihin ƙasan tagar shi ne $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli, 0.1% sama da shi. Faɗuwar ta kasance −9.5% kaɗai; hawan tun lokacin shi ne +26.7% zuwa $82,018, kuma BTC yana $81,413 (+25.8%) yau.
𝕏 Post@_Checkmatey_ on the bottom formation — 24 Feb 2026 (cited by CoinDesk the same day)↗ x.comSakamakon shi ne karatunmu na matsayin da ya bayyana idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashin rufewar yau da kullum na CoinGecko, ba nasa kimantawa ba. Kowane dala da kowane kashi a cikin katunan yana fitowa daga jerin bayanan guda ɗaya da aka zana chart ɗin da su. Check ba ya buga siginar ciniki ko burin farashi, don haka a nan ana auna ra'ayoyi na alkibla/na sharaɗi bisa abin da farashin ya yi da gaske bayan haka; da'awar dogon lokaci wanda ba a ma kusanci matakinsa ba ana rubuta ta a buɗe maimakon a ƙidaya ta a matsayin nasara.
Checkonchain kasuwanci ne na bincike bisa biyan kuɗi, kuma Check yana da bayyani na musamman game da abin da yake sayarwa da wanda ba ya sayarwa. Babu token, babu ƙungiyar sigina, ba mu sami haɗin gwiwa da kowace kasuwar musaya ba — amma bangon biya kansa shi ne dalilin da ya kamata a sani, domin buɗaɗɗen farkon kowace wasiƙa dole ne ya sa ka so sauran.
Checkonchain a Substack — sama da masu biyan kuɗi 30,000 a matakin kyauta, matakin biya (nazari a rubuce da bidiyo sau biyu a mako tare da zaman Q&A) da kuma matakin sama “Orange” wanda ya ƙara rahoto na wata-wata a PDF irin na hukuma, kira na wata-wata da James, kira na gabatarwa ɗaya-da-ɗaya, da imel mai fifiko.
Tarin chart na jama'a a charts.checkonchain.com, tare da shawara da horo ga kamfanoni da mutanen da ke shigar da nazarin on-chain cikin binciken su.
Shafinsa na ƙa'idodi ya bayyana cewa Checkonchain “not provide trading signals, and intra-day calls of any form” kuma ba ya ƙoƙarin kama ainihin kololuwa ko ƙasa — don haka ba a sayar da kome a nan a matsayin wurin shiga ba. Ka karanta kiran da ke wannan shafin a matsayin ra'ayi mai kwanan wata, wanda shi ne kawai abin da yake da'awa.
“Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains.”
24 Feb 2026 · tsarin da dukan tarihin 2026 ya dogara a kansa“No model is perfect, and no analyst will ever predict the future correctly every time.”
14 Jul 2026 · an faɗa a rubutun da ya gwada ra'ayinsa“Look for the evidence, not the calendar.”
18 Sep 2026 · gaba da auna lokaci bisa zagayen shekara huɗuAn ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Babu ɗakin bidiyo na jama'a da za a haɗa — sabuntawar bidiyo na Check tana bayan bangon biya na Checkonchain, kuma abin da yake fitarwa kyauta shi ne saƙonnin X da sashin buɗewa na kowace fitowar wasiƙa. Shi ya sa kowane kira a sama saƙo ne mai alamar lokaci ko wasiƙa mai kwanan wata, ba wani gajeren bidiyo ba. Fitowar da ke bayan shida daga cikin katunan tara suna a bayyane a hanyoyin haɗin da ke kan waɗannan katunan.
Manazarcin on-chain ɗan Ostiraliya, wanda ya kafa kuma babban manazarci na Checkonchain, kuma ɗaya daga cikin mutanen da suka gina fannin nazarin on-chain na Bitcoin. Ya fara aiki a matsayin injiniyan gine-gine (na ƙasa), ya koma bayanan Bitcoin a 2019, kuma ya gina ya jagoranci ƙungiyar manazarta ta Glassnode daga 2021 zuwa 2024, inda yake rubuta The Week On-chain. Yana wallafa a matsayin @_Checkmatey_.
Ba a tabbatar da ita a bainar jama'a ba. Kuɗin shigarsa yana fitowa daga kasuwancin biyan kuɗi na Checkonchain (matakan wasiƙa, chart da shawara), ba daga ciniki da aka buga ba. Ka yi watsi da duk wata lamba ta musamman — ba a tabbatar da ko ɗaya ba.
Da gangan, kusan ba ya yi. Ƙa'idodin da ya buga sun ce Checkonchain ba ya bayar da siginar ciniki ko kiran cikin rana, kuma ba ya ƙoƙarin kama ainihin kololuwa ko ƙasa. Abin da yake bugawa shi ne ra'ayi na alkibla mai kwanan wata kowane mako — kuma wannan ne abin da wannan shafin ke zanawa.
A tambayoyin tsari, mafi yawa eh. Ya ambaci yankin tarawa na Fabrairu da matsakaicin motsi na mako 200 a $58.5k yayin da ƙasan ƙarshe ya zama $58,566; ya ƙi burin $40k da kuma ra'ayin gama-gari na tsakiya zuwa ƙasan $40k, kuma babu ko ɗaya da ya kusanto. Ya kuma kuskure wajen karanta ƙarfin dangantaka a tsakiyar Maris, daidai kafin faɗuwar 19.7%, kuma kiransa mai gudana na $82k har yanzu ba a gwada shi ba. Shida sun tabbata, biyu suna a buɗe, ɗaya ya juya baya.
Check yana karanta Bitcoin ta abin da masu riƙe suka yi da gaske, ba ta yadda chart ɗin yake kama ba — kuma yana wasa da watanni, ba da mintuna ba. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake? Ka auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu sa hanyarka aiki. Gwada fifikonka kan bayanan kasuwa na kai tsaye — babu haɗarin jari — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari na ilimantarwa da bayar da bayani wanda ya dogara sosai kan kayan jama'a — saƙonninsa na X, sashin da aka bayar ga jama'a na fitowar Checkonchain masu kwanan wata, da rahotannin wasu masu kwanan wata, duk an haɗa su a kowane kira. Sashin waɗannan fitowar da ke bayan bangon biya ba a ɗauko shi ba kuma ba a auna shi a nan. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko saka jari ba ne. Lambobin kusan ne kuma suna canzawa koyaushe. Spotted an error, or are you James? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 21 September 2026
