@caprioleio
Mutumin da ke bayan Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value da Production Cost — ma'aunan da sauran manazarta ke maimaita masa shi kansa. Edwards yana gudanar da asusun bitcoin na tsari kuma yana buga samfuran da asusun ke ciniki da su, tare da kwanan wata. Wannan ya sa ake iya duba shi ba kamar sauran ba: idan aikin kimanta darajarsa ya ce «zurfin daraja», za ka iya duba abin da farashin ya yi bayan haka.
A taƙaice. Charles Edwards ya kafa Capriole Investments a 2019 kuma yana sarrafa Capriole Fund, asusu na tsari mai lasisi kuma da ake yi wa bincike. An san shi ba don manufofin farashi ba, sai don gina ma'aunan kimanta darajar on-chain da yawancin masana'antar ke amfani da su yau — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost, da Bitcoin Yardstick. Abin da yake fitarwa ga jama'a shi ne Substack kyauta da kuma jerin ginshiƙai masu yawa a X. Tarihin da ke ƙasa gauraye ne ta hanya mai koyarwa: kiransa na kimanta daraja a hankali — «wannan yanki ne na daraja, ka jira farashin samarwa» — sun yi aiki sosai a tsawon faɗuwar 2026, yayin da saƙonninsa masu sauri na kwararar kuɗi da ƙarfin motsi — shanyewar hukumomi, jujjuyawar stablecoin, da juyin kamfanonin ajiya — suka riƙa tashi 'yan kwanaki kaɗan kafin kololuwar cikin gida. Ma'auni ɗaya na kwararar hukumomi ya sa shi mai kyakkyawan fata a 5 ga Mayu sannan mai duban faɗuwa a 26 ga Mayu; rabin da ya yi aiki shi ne na duban faɗuwa.
Edwards shi ne wanda ya kafa kuma Shugaban Capriole Investments, wadda bisa ga gidan yanar gizonta an «kafa ta a 2019» kuma tana «sarrafa Capriole Fund, babban asusu mai lasisi kuma da ake yi wa bincike wanda ke hidima ga masu zuba jari a ƙasashe sama da 25», tare da «tsarin zuba jari na tsari wanda ke nufin riba cikakkiya a duk zagayen kasuwa». Tsarin ya haɗa da haɗin gwiwa mai iyaka a Amurka da kamfanoni biyu a tsibiran Cayman, tare da ayyuka a Ostireliya. Ba mai sayar da saƙonni ga ƙananan masu zuba jari ba ne: kasuwancin shi ne asusu, rubuce-rubucen jama'a kuma su ne tagar kantinsa.
Gudunmawarsa mai ɗorewa ita ce awo, ba hasashe ba. Hash Ribbons (mika wuya na ma'adinai), Bitcoin Energy Value da Production Cost (yankunan daraja bisa farashin haƙo), Bitcoin Yardstick da Dynamic Range NVT nasa ne; haka kuma samfuran cikin gida da ya ambata a wasiƙunsa — Trend King, Macro Index, Bitcoin Perps Heat da Market Hedge Ratio. Tun da yake yana buga karatun tare da kwanan wata, ana iya ƙaryata kiransa ta hanyar da yawancin sharhi ba za a iya ba — kuma wannan yana yanka ta ɓangarorin biyu.
Don gaskiya, ga kuskure da aka rubuta wanda yake waje da wannan tagar ginshiƙi: a 2 ga Oktoba 2025 Cointelegraph ya ruwaito cewa ya ce bitcoin «na iya tashi zuwa sabon matsayi mafi girma na $150,000» kafin ƙarshen 2025. Bai faru ba — BTC ya kai kololuwa kusa da $126,000. Kiransa na Hash Ribbons da Energy Value na 2019–2021 suma suna waje da tagar farashi ta kwana 210 kuma ba a zana su a nan ba. Wani adadi daban na «$280,000» da ake yaɗa shi sosai kuma ake danganta shi da wani rubutu na 2024 ba a iya bibiyarsa zuwa tushen asali ba, don haka ba a tabbatar da shi a ko'ina a wannan shafi ba.
Sources: caprioleio.substack.com · x.com/caprioleio · capriole.com · dated third-party coverage (NewsBTC, Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, Bitcoin.com News)
Na tsari kuma bisa kimanta daraja. Edwards yana farawa daga farashin samarwa da kuma yankunan daraja na on-chain maimakon siffofin ginshiƙi: ina farashin yake idan aka kwatanta da abin da ya kashe ma'adinci wajen samar da tsabar kuɗi ɗaya, me Yardstick ke faɗa, buƙatar hukumomi tana sama ko ƙasa da fitarwar yau da kullum. A cikin dogon zango wannan yana da kyau sosai — shi ne ya gaya masa ya jira duk bazara sannan ya bayyana daraja a ƙasan Yuni. Rauni yana bayyana a gajerun zango: saƙonninsa bisa kwarara (shanyewar hukumomi, jujjuyawar stablecoin, sayayyar kamfanonin ajiya) ana tsara su da «yawanci» da «a tarihi» daga ƙananan samfura, kuma a cikin wannan taga guda uku masu kyakkyawan fata sun tashi 'yan kwanaki kafin kololuwar cikin gida — ko da yake juyin wannan ma'auni zuwa duban faɗuwa a 26 ga Mayu ya zama kira mai kyau, wanda hakan ce alamar ma'aunin da ke tafiya tare da farashi ba wanda ke gaba da shi ba. Yana kuma bayyana matakan ƙarya nasa, kuma wannan horo ne na gaske — ya ce «sama da $71.5K» kuma yana nufin haka.
A tsari yana da kyakkyawan ra'ayi game da bitcoin a matsayin dukiya ta dogon zango, amma karatunsa da aka buga a yanzu na taka-tsantsan ne: har zuwa 16 ga Satumba 2026 yana son ganin rufewar mako ta koma sama da $78K, yana ganin babban shinge a $93,500, kuma yana kwatanta karkatarsa a matsayin ta duban faɗuwa a cikin taga na wata 12 zuwa 18 da sayarwar masu riƙe da dogon zango ke tsara ta. Mai kyakkyawan fata a kimanta daraja, mai kariya a gajeren zango.
Kira takwas masu kwanan wata daga Substack ɗinsa da jerin X ɗinsa, tare da kalamai kai-tsaye a kafofin yaɗa labarai masu kwanan wata — kowanne an sake ɗauko shi kai-tsaye kuma an daidaita shi kalma-da-kalma da tushensa kafin bugawa. Rabuwar ita ce babban labarin, kuma tana da alaƙa da zango, ba shugabanci ba. Aikinsa na kimanta daraja (13 Mar, 9 Yun) ya yi daidai, longn nan mai sharaɗi da ya bayyana a 15 ga Afrilu ya samu riba sannan ya tsaya daidai inda ya faɗa, kuma a 26 ga Mayu ya juya saboda sabbin bayanai kuma ya sake yin daidai. Saƙonninsa masu sauri na kwarara (1 Mai, 5 Mai, 4 Sat) kowane lokaci sun tashi 'yan kwanaki kafin kololuwar cikin gida — ɗaya daidai a kan kololuwa. Kira na takwas yana da sa'o'i kaɗan kuma a buɗe yake. Wasu abubuwa biyar a cikin taga an bincika su kuma an cire su, tare da dalili ga kowanne, a cikin verified_sources.txt na wannan daftarin.
“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto or this could get ugly”
An buga shi yayin da BTC ke $75,590, sa'o'i kaɗan bayan Majalisar Dattawan Amurka ta toshe dokar CLARITY. Ya ambaci mataki ɗaya kawai — rufewar mako sama da $78,000 — ya kuma ce sauran zaɓin zai zama mummuna. BTC yana $75,974 (+0.5%) yayin da ake gina wannan shafi, har yanzu 2.7% ƙasa da layinsa. Bitcoin.com News ya ce babban shingen Capriole na gaba yana $93,500 kuma karkatarsa ta duban faɗuwa ce a hangen wata 12–18. Sabo ne sosai don yanke hukunci — a buɗe.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run.”
Market Hedge Ratio nasa (darajar kasuwar USDT kan ta BTC, kwana 30 masu jujjuyawa) ya kai −20.42% kuma ya ce faɗuwa «kusan an iyakance ta», tare da makonni na tashi a gaba. Ya yi alamar kololuwa daidai da ranar: BTC yana $81,265 a 4 ga Satumba kuma bai taɓa yin ciniki sama da haka ba tun lokacin — mafi girma bayan haka = +0.0%. Ya faɗi zuwa $75,590 (−7.0%) kuma yana $75,974 (−6.5%). Kuskure mafi bayyana a wannan taga.
SourceIs the Bitcoin Bottom In? 2 Analysts Say Yes From Separate Charts — Yahoo Finance / BeInCrypto↗ finance.yahoo.com“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost. Miners are now just breaking even on average. The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
Nasa samfurin farashin haƙo, an yi amfani da shi daidai yadda aka tsara shi: a $63,069 ya yi alamar yankin $50K–$63K a matsayin yankin daraja na dogon zango a tarihi. Ya yi aiki. BTC ya faɗi kawai −7.1% zuwa $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli — cikin yankin da ya ambata — sannan ya tashi +28.9% zuwa $81,265 zuwa 4 ga Satumba kuma yana riƙe da $75,974 (+20.5%). Kira mafi kyau a wannan shafi.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“That didn't last long. Institutions are once again dumping on us. … Hard to get meaningful price improvement while this metric is in the red.”
Kwana ashirin da ɗaya bayan rubutun $96K, wannan ma'auni na kwararar hukumomi ya koma mara kyau kuma shi ma ya juya. Wannan kiran ya yi aiki: daga $77,258 BTC bai taɓa samun sama da +5.2% ba kuma ya faɗi −24.2% zuwa $58,566 zuwa 1 ga Yuli; yanzu yana $75,974 (−1.7%). Yabo don saurin sauya ra'ayi bisa sabbin bayanai — amma karanta shi tare da katin ƙasa, domin ma'auni ɗaya ne ke ƙaryata kansa cikin makonni uku, kuma wannan shi ne dalilin gaskiya na ɗaukarsa a matsayin mai tafiya tare da farashi ba mai hasashe ba.
Source“Institutions Dumping Again”: Charles Edwards Warns ETF Outflows Are Crushing Bitcoin Momentum — Yahoo Finance / CCN↗ finance.yahoo.com“Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we've typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases. That would take us to around $96K.”
Kiransa mafi ƙayyadewa a wannan taga kuma mafi muni — tare da adadin a cikin nasa wasiƙar labarai, ba lissafin ɗan jarida ba. An buga shi kwana shida kafin kololuwar taga. Daga $79,826 BTC ya samu +2.7% kawai zuwa $82,018 a 11 ga Mayu, maimakon «ribar lambobi biyu» da kwatancin tarihi ya yi alkawari, sannan ya faɗi −26.6% zuwa $58,566; yanzu yana $75,974 (−4.8%). Ba a taɓa kai $96,000 ba — kololuwar taga ta rage 17%. Wannan bugu ɗaya ya ce Trend King na Capriole yana «long mai lefarej a bitcoin», don haka matsayinsa ne ba sharhi kawai ba.
Source“Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin” — Charles Edwards, Substack (5 May 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April. These inflections have been very bullish in the past. Not many samples to go by, but could this time be similar?”
Sayayyar kamfanonin ajiya ta tashi daga matsanancin ƙasa kuma ya yi alamar wannan juyin a matsayin mai kyakkyawan fata a tarihi — yayin da yake faɗin a fili cewa samfurin ya yi ƙaranci. Wannan gargaɗin ya cancanci: daga $76,297 BTC ya ƙara +7.5% kawai zuwa $82,018 cikin kwana goma, sannan ya mayar da komai da ƙari, −23.2% zuwa $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli. Ya koma $75,974 (−0.4%) — tafiya da dawowa zuwa babu inda.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
Kira mai sharaɗi tare da matakin ƙarya da aka bayyana tun farko — mai kyakkyawan fata sama da $71.5K, kuma a wasiƙa ɗaya: «idan motsi na yanzu ya lalace mako mai zuwa… fayil ɗinmu na tsari zai juya daidai da haka». Ya samu riba, sannan ya tsaya daidai yadda aka rubuta. Daga $74,297 BTC ya hau +10.4% zuwa $82,018 zuwa 11 ga Mayu; layinsa na $71,500 ya karye a 2 ga Yuni a $71,320, kuma faɗuwar ta kai $58,566 (−21.2%). Yanzu $75,974 (+2.3%). An kimanta shi bisa cinikin da ya ayyana, ba bisa riƙe shi ba.
Source“Uncharted Waters” — Charles Edwards, Substack (15 Apr 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top. Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it's not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we've seen in prior cycles.”
Rabin wannan kira mai amfani shi ne ƙin yardar: daraja, eh — amma ba zurfin darajar da ke burge shi da gaske ba, wadda ya sanya a yankin farashin samarwa kusan $50,000–$60,000. Waɗanda suka jira sun yi daidai. Sakamakon yana da fuska biyu kamar kiran kansa: daga $70,417 BTC ya fara hawa +16.5% zuwa $82,018, sannan ya faɗi −16.8% zuwa $58,566 a 1 ga Yuli — kusan daidai da juna — yana taɓa saman yankin da ya ambata kafin ya farfaɗo zuwa $75,974 (+7.9%). Ya yi daidai cewa ƙasan ya fi kusa da kololuwa, kuma ya yi daidai da bai ayyana shi ba. Ya kuma ce yana shakkar sabbin matsayi mafi girma har sai ƙungiyar Bitcoin Core ta magance haɗarin quantum — babu ɗaya da ya zo.
SourceCharles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.comSakamakon shi ne yadda muka fahimci maganarsa idan aka kwatanta da ainihin farashin CoinGecko, ba nasa kimantawa ba — ribar asusun Capriole ba ta jama'a ba ce kuma babu wani da'awa game da ita a nan. Kowane adadi na $ da % ya yi daidai sosai da scripts/price_at.py. Kwanakin sune kwanakin faɗin magana, ba ranar da labari ya fito ba: kiran 5 ga Mayu da 4 ga Satumba an sanya musu kwanan wata bisa nasa rubutun, kamar yadda tushen ya faɗa a fili, kuma kalaman 26 ga Mayu rubutu ne na X da aka maimaita kalma-da-kalma a rahoton rana ɗaya. Alamomin gajeren zango na iya juyawa yayin da zagayen ke warwarewa.
Kasuwancin Edwards asusu ne, ba biyan kuɗin wata-wata ko ƙungiyar saƙonni ba — tsarin ƙarfafawa da ya bambanta sosai da yawancin sunayen da ke wannan shafi, kuma ya cancanci a fahimce shi maimakon a ɗauka cewa ya fi tsabta.
Bisa ga capriole.com, an kafa Capriole Investments a 2019 kuma tana sarrafa «babban asusu mai lasisi kuma da ake yi wa bincike» (haɗin gwiwa ɗaya a Amurka da kamfanoni biyu a Cayman) mai hidima ga masu zuba jari a ƙasashe sama da 25. Tattalin arzikin manajan asusu — kuɗin gudanarwa da na aikin — ba sayarwa ga ƙananan masu saye ba.
Wasiƙar labaransa da ma'aunansa a TradingView kyauta ne kuma ba a bayan katangar biya ba, shi ya sa aka iya samun kiran da ke sama daga tushe kai-tsaye. Ƙarfafawar a bayyane take: bincike na jama'a talla ne ga asusu, kuma manajan da ke magana kan littafinsa yana magana kan matsayi mai rai.
Ba mu sami biyan kuɗin saƙonni, lambobin gayyata ko tallan token ba a cikin kayan da muka duba. Rashin shaida a samfurin wata bakwai ba shaida ba ce — amma haka rikodin ya nuna.
Dukiyar da asusun ke sarrafawa, ribar, girman matsayinsa na kansa, yawan mabiya da ƙasar zama ba a tabbatar da su a bayyane ba, don haka babu wani adadi game da su a wannan shafi.
“The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
9 Jun 2026 · hanyarsa tana aiki — daraja a ƙasan kasuwa“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green.”
4 Sep 2026 · an buga shi a ranar da BTC ya kai kololuwa“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
15 Apr 2026 · kira mai ɗauke da matakin ƙaryarsa a cikiAn ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Babu ɗakin bidiyo da za a haɗa: Edwards ba shi da tashar kansa. Yana buga Substack kyauta, yana saka ginshiƙai a X, kuma yana bayyana a matsayin baƙo a wasu wurare — shi ya sa kowane kira a sama rubutu ne mai kwanan wata ko kalamai kai-tsaye a rahoto mai kwanan wata, ba yanki na bidiyo ba. Wasiƙunsa da ke bayan kira biyu suna a bayyane kuma an haɗa su a katinansu: «Uncharted Waters» (15 Afr 2026) da «Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin» (5 Mai 2026).
Wanda ya kafa kuma Shugaban Capriole Investments, asusun dukiyar dijital na tsari da aka ƙaddamar a 2019. An fi saninsa da ƙirƙirar ma'aunan on-chain na bitcoin da ake amfani da su sosai — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost da Bitcoin Yardstick — da kuma buga bincikensa kyauta a Substack da X ƙarƙashin sunan @caprioleio.
Ba a tabbatar a bayyane ba. Yana gudanar da asusu maimakon sayar da biyan kuɗi, kuma dukiyar Capriole da take sarrafawa, kuɗaɗenta da ribarta ba na jama'a ba ne. Ka yi watsi da duk wani adadi na musamman — babu ɗaya da aka tabbatar.
Tarihinsa a wannan samfurin wata bakwai ya rabu sarai bisa zango. Aikin kimanta daraja a hankali — ƙin yarda a Maris cewa an riga an kai «zurfin daraja» da kiran farashin samarwa a Yuni — ya yi daidai, na ƙarshe kafin tashin 28.9%, kuma juyinsa zuwa taka-tsantsan a 26 ga Mayu shi ma ya yi daidai. Saƙonni masu sauri na kwarara masu kyakkyawan fata kuwa a'a: guda uku a Mayu da Satumba sun tashi 'yan kwanaki kafin kololuwar cikin gida, ɗaya daidai a kan kololuwa. Tushen bincike ne shi, ba faɗakarwar ciniki ba, kuma babu abin da ke nan da yake shawarar kuɗi.
Ta tsari kuma bisa kimanta daraja. Yana auna bitcoin kan farashin samar da shi (Energy Value, Production Cost, tare da Electrical Cost a matsayin ƙasa), yana tantancewa da ma'aunan on-chain kamar Yardstick, MVRV Z-score da Dynamic Range NVT, kuma yana bin buƙatar hukumomi kan yawan da ake haƙowa kullum. Capriole na ciniki da wannan ta samfuran cikin gida masu suna — Trend King, Macro Index — kuma yana bayyana matakan ƙaryarsa a bainar jama'a.
Kyauta a caprioleio.substack.com da kuma a X a matsayin @caprioleio; kamfanin yana a capriole.com, kuma an buga ma'aunansa a TradingView. Babu ƙungiyar saƙonni ta biya a cikin kayan da muka duba.
Edwards yana auna bitcoin kamar hajar kasuwa — nawa ya kashe a samar da shi, kuma nawa ya kai idan aka kwatanta da haka. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu sa hanyarka aiki. Gwada fifikonka kan bayanan kasuwa na kai tsaye — babu haɗarin jari — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayar da bayanai da ilimi wanda ya dogara sosai kan kayan da ke a bayyane ga jama'a — nasa rubuce-rubucen Substack da X masu kwanan wata, da rahotannin wasu masu kwanan wata, an haɗa su a kowane kira. An sake ɗauko kowane kalami daga tushensa kuma an daidaita shi kalma-da-kalma kafin bugawa. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko ta zuba jari ba ce, kuma ba wata magana ba ce game da yadda asusun Capriole Investments ke aiki, wanda ba na jama'a ba ne. Adadin kusan ne kuma yana canjawa kullum. Spotted an error, or are you Charles? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 16 September 2026
