@caprioleio
Mutumin da ke bayan Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value da Production Cost — ma'aunan da sauran manazarta ke maimaita masa shi kansa. Edwards yana gudanar da asusun bitcoin na tsari kuma yana buga samfuran da asusun ke ciniki da su, tare da kwanan wata. Wannan ya sa ake iya duba shi ba kamar sauran ba: idan aikin kimanta darajarsa ya ce «zurfin daraja», za ka iya duba abin da farashin ya yi bayan haka.
A taƙaice. Charles Edwards ya kafa Capriole Investments a 2019 kuma yana sarrafa Capriole Fund, asusu na tsari mai lasisi kuma da ake yi wa bincike. An san shi ba don manufofin farashi ba, sai don gina ma'aunan kimanta darajar on-chain da yawancin masana'antar ke amfani da su yau — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost, da Bitcoin Yardstick. Abin da yake fitarwa ga jama'a shi ne Substack kyauta da kuma jerin ginshiƙai masu yawa a X. Tarihin da ke ƙasa gauraye ne ta hanya mai koyarwa: kiransa na kimanta daraja a hankali — «wannan yanki ne na daraja, ka jira farashin samarwa» — sun yi aiki sosai a tsawon faɗuwar 2026, yayin da saƙonninsa masu sauri na kwararar kuɗi da ƙarfin motsi — shanyewar hukumomi, jujjuyawar stablecoin, da juyin kamfanonin ajiya — suka riƙa tashi 'yan kwanaki kaɗan kafin kololuwar cikin gida. Ma'auni ɗaya na kwararar hukumomi ya sa shi mai kyakkyawan fata a 5 ga Mayu sannan mai duban faɗuwa a 26 ga Mayu; rabin da ya yi aiki shi ne na duban faɗuwa.
Edwards shi ne wanda ya kafa kuma Shugaban Capriole Investments, wadda bisa ga gidan yanar gizonta an «kafa ta a 2019» kuma tana «sarrafa Capriole Fund, babban asusu mai lasisi kuma da ake yi wa bincike wanda ke hidima ga masu zuba jari a ƙasashe sama da 25», tare da «tsarin zuba jari na tsari wanda ke nufin riba cikakkiya a duk zagayen kasuwa». Tsarin ya haɗa da haɗin gwiwa mai iyaka a Amurka da kamfanoni biyu a tsibiran Cayman, tare da ayyuka a Ostireliya. Ba mai sayar da saƙonni ga ƙananan masu zuba jari ba ne: kasuwancin shi ne asusu, rubuce-rubucen jama'a kuma su ne tagar kantinsa.
Gudunmawarsa mai ɗorewa ita ce awo, ba hasashe ba. Hash Ribbons (mika wuya na ma'adinai), Bitcoin Energy Value da Production Cost (yankunan daraja bisa farashin haƙo), Bitcoin Yardstick da Dynamic Range NVT nasa ne; haka kuma samfuran cikin gida da ya ambata a wasiƙunsa — Trend King, Macro Index, Bitcoin Perps Heat da Market Hedge Ratio. Tun da yake yana buga karatun tare da kwanan wata, ana iya ƙaryata kiransa ta hanyar da yawancin sharhi ba za a iya ba — kuma wannan yana yanka ta ɓangarorin biyu.
Don gaskiya, ga kuskure da aka rubuta wanda yake waje da wannan tagar ginshiƙi: a 2 ga Oktoba 2025 Cointelegraph ya ruwaito cewa ya ce bitcoin «na iya tashi zuwa sabon matsayi mafi girma na $150,000» kafin ƙarshen 2025. Bai faru ba — BTC ya kai kololuwa kusa da $126,000. Kiransa na Hash Ribbons da Energy Value na 2019–2021 suma suna waje da tagar farashi ta kwana 210 kuma ba a zana su a nan ba. Wani adadi daban na «$280,000» da ake yaɗa shi sosai kuma ake danganta shi da wani rubutu na 2024 ba a iya bibiyarsa zuwa tushen asali ba, don haka ba a tabbatar da shi a ko'ina a wannan shafi ba.
Sources: caprioleio.substack.com · x.com/caprioleio · capriole.com · dated third-party coverage (NewsBTC, Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, Bitcoin.com News)
Na tsari kuma bisa kimanta daraja. Edwards yana farawa daga farashin samarwa da kuma yankunan daraja na on-chain maimakon siffofin ginshiƙi: ina farashin yake idan aka kwatanta da abin da ya kashe ma'adinci wajen samar da tsabar kuɗi ɗaya, me Yardstick ke faɗa, buƙatar hukumomi tana sama ko ƙasa da fitarwar yau da kullum. A cikin dogon zango wannan yana da kyau sosai — shi ne ya gaya masa ya jira duk bazara sannan ya bayyana daraja a ƙasan Yuni. Rauni yana bayyana a gajerun zango: saƙonninsa bisa kwarara (shanyewar hukumomi, jujjuyawar stablecoin, sayayyar kamfanonin ajiya) ana tsara su da «yawanci» da «a tarihi» daga ƙananan samfura, kuma a cikin wannan taga guda uku masu kyakkyawan fata sun tashi 'yan kwanaki kafin kololuwar cikin gida — ko da yake juyin wannan ma'auni zuwa duban faɗuwa a 26 ga Mayu ya zama kira mai kyau, wanda hakan ce alamar ma'aunin da ke tafiya tare da farashi ba wanda ke gaba da shi ba. Yana kuma bayyana matakan ƙarya nasa, kuma wannan horo ne na gaske — ya ce «sama da $71.5K» kuma yana nufin haka.
Turned constructive in late September. On 16 September he wanted a weekly close back above $78K, and Bitcoin.com News reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view. Once that line was reclaimed his own posts flipped: on 24 September the Bitcoin Yardstick “says: bear market is over” — with a warning of 6-8 weeks of chop first — and on 1 October he called the end of the biggest miner capitulation since 2021 “a macro trend change”. Valuation bull, now leaning bullish near-term as well, chop caveat attached.
Ten dated calls from his own Substack and X feed, plus verbatim quotes in dated press — every one re-fetched live and matched word-for-word against its source before publishing. The split is the story, and it is about horizon, not direction. His valuation work (13 Mar, 9 Jun) was right, the conditional long he defined on 15 April paid and then stopped out exactly where he said it would, on 26 May he reversed on new data and was right again, and the $78K line he drew on 16 September was reclaimed within days. His fast flow signals (1 May, 5 May, 4 Sep) each fired within days of a local high — one on the day itself. His two newest calls, the Yardstick's “bear market is over” (24 Sep) and the end of miner capitulation on his Hash Ribbons (1 Oct), are still open. Five further in-window items were examined and excluded, with the reason for each, in the draft's verified_sources.txt.
“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining and killed 50% of the network overnight in 2021. Hash Rate is seeing its first signs of growth since 2025. This is a macro trend change and how Hash Ribbons should be interpreted in the new era of efficiency.”
His own indicator, read by its author: the miner capitulation Hash Ribbons was built to track is over, and he called it “a macro trend change”. He signed off with “If you know, you know what this means” rather than a level — the end of a capitulation is what his Hash Ribbons buy signal marks, but he gave no target and no timeframe. Posted at 05:37 UTC; the chart marks it at that day's 00:00 UTC point of $83,576. BTC has since reached $84,842 (+1.5%) and is $84,793 (+1.5%). Three days old — open.
𝕏 Post“We've just exited the biggest Miner Capitulation since China banned Bitcoin mining” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over. Bitcoin has broken out of the deep discount zone. Comparable to 2020 and 2023. Price went up triple digits from here each time.”
His own valuation metric — market cap over hash rate — leaving its deep-discount zone, and the most bullish thing he has said in this window. He pointed to 2020 and 2023, when price more than doubled from here, but set no target, and in the same post warned that “both prior times we did chop around here for another 6-8 weeks before moving up.” So far the caveat is the accurate half: from $84,382 BTC has held a $83,479–$84,842 range (−1.1% to +0.5%) and is $84,793 (+0.5%) ten days on. It is also an about-face from his 16 September warning, made once his $78K line had been reclaimed. Open.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin Yardstick says: bear market is over” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto or this could get ugly”
Posted with BTC at $75,590, hours after the US Senate blocked the CLARITY Act. He named one level — a weekly close above $78,000 — and said the alternative gets ugly. The market took the good branch: BTC was back above $78K by 19 September, has held above it at every daily point since, and the day of his post is still the low. It ran to $86,597 (+14.6%) on 22 September and is $84,793 (+12.2%). This was a warning, not a rally forecast, so the credit is for naming the right pivot. Bitcoin.com News had reported his bias as bearish on a 12-to-18-month view; his own posts since have turned bullish — see the two cards above.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin needs a weekly close back above $78K pronto” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green. Downside is basically capped in last 5 years until it flips red. Typically this reading means we have week(s) of upside to run.”
His Market Hedge Ratio (USDT/BTC market cap, rolling 30 days) hit −20.42% and he said downside was “basically capped” with weeks of upside to run. The next two weeks said otherwise: from $81,265 on 4 September BTC fell −7.0% to $75,590 by the 16th. The upside did come, but late — BTC first traded above his entry on 22 September, 18 days on, at $86,597 (+6.6%), and sits at $84,793 (+4.3%). Graded against on what he claimed for the weeks that followed: a 7% drawdown first is not capped downside.
SourceIs the Bitcoin Bottom In? 2 Analysts Say Yes From Separate Charts — Yahoo Finance / BeInCrypto↗ finance.yahoo.com“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost. Miners are now just breaking even on average. The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
His own cost-of-mining model, used as intended: at $63,069 he marked the $50K–$63K band as the historical long-term value zone. It worked. BTC dipped only −7.1% to $58,566 on 1 July — inside the band he named — then ran +37.3% to $86,597 by 22 September and holds $84,793 (+34.4%). The best call on this page.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin is trading back at its Production cost” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“That didn't last long. Institutions are once again dumping on us. … Hard to get meaningful price improvement while this metric is in the red.”
Twenty-one days after the $96K note, the same institutional-flow metric flipped negative and so did he. That call worked: from $77,258 BTC fell −24.2% to $58,566 by 1 July and was never more than +5.2% above his post until 22 September — four months on — when it reached $86,597 (+12.1%); it sits at $84,793 (+9.8%). Credit for reversing fast on new data — but read it against the card below, because it is one indicator contradicting itself inside three weeks, which is the honest case for treating it as coincident rather than predictive.
Source“Institutions Dumping Again”: Charles Edwards Warns ETF Outflows Are Crushing Bitcoin Momentum — Yahoo Finance / CCN↗ finance.yahoo.com“Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we've typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases. That would take us to around $96K.”
His most specific call in the window, and his worst — with the number in his own newsletter, not a reporter's arithmetic. Posted six days before the May high. From $79,826 BTC gained just +2.7% to $82,018 on 11 May against the “double digit returns” the analogue promised, then fell −26.6% to $58,566; it sits at $84,793 (+6.2%) five months later. $96,000 was never reached — even the 22 September high of $86,597 is 9.8% short of it. The same issue reported Capriole's Trend King as “leverage long Bitcoin”, so this was his positioning, not just his commentary.
Source“Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin” — Charles Edwards, Substack (5 May 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April. These inflections have been very bullish in the past. Not many samples to go by, but could this time be similar?”
Treasury-company buying bounced off extreme lows and he flagged the inflection as historically bullish — while openly noting the thin sample. The caveat earned its keep: from $76,297 BTC added just +7.5% to $82,018 over ten days, then gave it all back and more, −23.2% to $58,566 on 1 July. It is $84,793 (+11.1%) five months on, but only by way of that drawdown — not the bullish inflection the post pointed to.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin DATs capitulated hard in April” — @caprioleio on X↗ x.com“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
A conditional call with the invalidation stated up front — bullish above $71.5K, and in the same letter: “if the current move breaks down next week… our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly.” It paid, then stopped out exactly as written. From $74,297 BTC rose +10.4% to $82,018 by 11 May; his $71,500 line broke on 2 June at $71,320, and the flush ran to $58,566 (−21.2%). Now $84,793 (+14.1%). Graded on the trade he defined, not the hold.
Source“Uncharted Waters” — Charles Edwards, Substack (15 Apr 2026)↗ caprioleio.substack.com“Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top. Broadly trending within a value range historically in terms of onchain data and metrics. That said, it's not at the deep value range that would be really exciting for me that we've seen in prior cycles.”
The useful half of this call was the refusal: value, yes — but not the deep value that gets him excited, which he placed at the production-cost band of roughly $50,000–$60,000. Investors who waited were right. The outcome is as two-sided as the call: from $70,417 BTC first rose +16.5% to $82,018, then fell −16.8% to $58,566 on 1 July — almost symmetric — clipping the top of the band he named before recovering to $86,597 (+23.0%) on 22 September; it is $84,793 (+20.4%) now. He was right that the bottom was closer than the top, and right not to call it. He also said he doubted new all-time highs until quantum risk was addressed by Bitcoin Core — none have come.
SourceCharles Edwards Says Bitcoin Is In A Value Zone, But Not Yet At Deep Value — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.comOutcomes are our read of his stated claim against real CoinGecko price, not his own scoring — Capriole's fund returns are not public and nothing here is a claim about them. Every $ and % figure matches scripts/price_at.py exactly. Dates are utterance dates, not the date a write-up appeared: the 5 May and 4 Sep calls are dated to his own post, which the source states explicitly, and the 26 May quote is an X post reproduced verbatim in same-day coverage. The 24 Sep and 1 Oct posts went up at 04:36 and 05:37 UTC and are charted at that day's 00:00 UTC point. Near-term marks can flip as the cycle resolves.
Kasuwancin Edwards asusu ne, ba biyan kuɗin wata-wata ko ƙungiyar saƙonni ba — tsarin ƙarfafawa da ya bambanta sosai da yawancin sunayen da ke wannan shafi, kuma ya cancanci a fahimce shi maimakon a ɗauka cewa ya fi tsabta.
Bisa ga capriole.com, an kafa Capriole Investments a 2019 kuma tana sarrafa «babban asusu mai lasisi kuma da ake yi wa bincike» (haɗin gwiwa ɗaya a Amurka da kamfanoni biyu a Cayman) mai hidima ga masu zuba jari a ƙasashe sama da 25. Tattalin arzikin manajan asusu — kuɗin gudanarwa da na aikin — ba sayarwa ga ƙananan masu saye ba.
Wasiƙar labaransa da ma'aunansa a TradingView kyauta ne kuma ba a bayan katangar biya ba, shi ya sa aka iya samun kiran da ke sama daga tushe kai-tsaye. Ƙarfafawar a bayyane take: bincike na jama'a talla ne ga asusu, kuma manajan da ke magana kan littafinsa yana magana kan matsayi mai rai.
Ba mu sami biyan kuɗin saƙonni, lambobin gayyata ko tallan token ba a cikin kayan da muka duba. Rashin shaida a samfurin wata bakwai ba shaida ba ce — amma haka rikodin ya nuna.
Dukiyar da asusun ke sarrafawa, ribar, girman matsayinsa na kansa, yawan mabiya da ƙasar zama ba a tabbatar da su a bayyane ba, don haka babu wani adadi game da su a wannan shafi.
“The best Long-term value opportunities have historically been between here and Electrical Cost, currently at $50K.”
9 Jun 2026 · hanyarsa tana aiki — daraja a ƙasan kasuwa“It's very hard for bad things to happen to Bitcoin when Capriole's Market Hedge Ratio is this green.”
4 Sep 2026 · posted on the day of a local top“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
15 Apr 2026 · kira mai ɗauke da matakin ƙaryarsa a cikiAn ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Babu ɗakin bidiyo da za a haɗa: Edwards ba shi da tashar kansa. Yana buga Substack kyauta, yana saka ginshiƙai a X, kuma yana bayyana a matsayin baƙo a wasu wurare — shi ya sa kowane kira a sama rubutu ne mai kwanan wata ko kalamai kai-tsaye a rahoto mai kwanan wata, ba yanki na bidiyo ba. Wasiƙunsa da ke bayan kira biyu suna a bayyane kuma an haɗa su a katinansu: «Uncharted Waters» (15 Afr 2026) da «Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin» (5 Mai 2026).
Wanda ya kafa kuma Shugaban Capriole Investments, asusun dukiyar dijital na tsari da aka ƙaddamar a 2019. An fi saninsa da ƙirƙirar ma'aunan on-chain na bitcoin da ake amfani da su sosai — Hash Ribbons, Bitcoin Energy Value, Production Cost da Bitcoin Yardstick — da kuma buga bincikensa kyauta a Substack da X ƙarƙashin sunan @caprioleio.
Ba a tabbatar a bayyane ba. Yana gudanar da asusu maimakon sayar da biyan kuɗi, kuma dukiyar Capriole da take sarrafawa, kuɗaɗenta da ribarta ba na jama'a ba ne. Ka yi watsi da duk wani adadi na musamman — babu ɗaya da aka tabbatar.
His record in this seven-month sample splits cleanly by horizon. Slow valuation work — the March “not deep value yet” refusal and the June production-cost call — was right, the latter ahead of a 37.3% rally, and his 26 May reversal to caution was right too. Fast bullish flow signals were not: three of them in May and September fired within days of local tops, one on the day of a local top. He is a research source, not a trade alert, and nothing here is financial advice.
Ta tsari kuma bisa kimanta daraja. Yana auna bitcoin kan farashin samar da shi (Energy Value, Production Cost, tare da Electrical Cost a matsayin ƙasa), yana tantancewa da ma'aunan on-chain kamar Yardstick, MVRV Z-score da Dynamic Range NVT, kuma yana bin buƙatar hukumomi kan yawan da ake haƙowa kullum. Capriole na ciniki da wannan ta samfuran cikin gida masu suna — Trend King, Macro Index — kuma yana bayyana matakan ƙaryarsa a bainar jama'a.
Kyauta a caprioleio.substack.com da kuma a X a matsayin @caprioleio; kamfanin yana a capriole.com, kuma an buga ma'aunansa a TradingView. Babu ƙungiyar saƙonni ta biya a cikin kayan da muka duba.
Edwards yana auna bitcoin kamar hajar kasuwa — nawa ya kashe a samar da shi, kuma nawa ya kai idan aka kwatanta da haka. Yaya kusa hankalinka yake? Auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu sa hanyarka aiki. Gwada fifikonka kan bayanan kasuwa na kai tsaye — babu haɗarin jari — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari na bayar da bayanai da ilimi wanda ya dogara sosai kan kayan da ke a bayyane ga jama'a — nasa rubuce-rubucen Substack da X masu kwanan wata, da rahotannin wasu masu kwanan wata, an haɗa su a kowane kira. An sake ɗauko kowane kalami daga tushensa kuma an daidaita shi kalma-da-kalma kafin bugawa. Ba shawarar kuɗi ko ta zuba jari ba ce, kuma ba wata magana ba ce game da yadda asusun Capriole Investments ke aiki, wanda ba na jama'a ba ne. Adadin kusan ne kuma yana canjawa kullum. Spotted an error, or are you Charles? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 4 October 2026
