@BobLoukas
Mutumin da ya kawo kalmar “zagayen shekaru 4 na Bitcoin” a YouTube a Disamba 2018 — kuma yake tafiyar da fayil ɗin jarin misali na jama'a bisa ta. Loukas ba ya cinikin kanun labarai; yana cinikin inda kake a cikin zagayen, yana sanya kwanan wata a kowane sabuntawa, kuma yana buga sayayyar. Wannan ya sa tarihinsa ya zama mai sauƙin bincike ba kamar sauran ba — har da lokacin farkon 2026 sa'ad da zagayen ke cewa ƙasa amma farashi ya ce wani abu daban.
A taƙaice. Bob Loukas is a position trader with 30+ years in markets, founder of the membership site The Financial Tap, and the analyst most associated with Bitcoin's four-year cycle — a framework he traces to the cycle work of Walter Bressert and has applied to Bitcoin since 2018. His crypto analysis runs through a “4 Year Journey” model portfolio whose trades he posts publicly. The eight dated 2026 calls charted below split cleanly in two: his bearish first half was badly timed — a sub-$50,000 scenario that never came, and a “readying for another big leg lower” post published on the exact day of Bitcoin's March low — and then he caught the turn, calling the end of the counter-trend rally six days before the $82,018 May top, buying 10 BTC at $65,000 in June, and telling followers Bitcoin “isn't dead” at $60,990, which it now holds +37.9% above. In September he called for a break of that May high to confirm a new bull market, and it broke four days later. His cycle-low window of October–November 2026 has not arrived, and is logged open.
Bob Loukas ɗan kasuwa ne na matsayi kuma wanda ya kafa The Financial Tap, shafin biyan kuɗi da yake bayyana shi ba a matsayin sabis na ciniki ba sai dai a matsayin “ilimin zuba jari mai ci gaba”. Shafinsa na gabatarwa yana da tsanaki game da siffar aikin: shekaru 30+ na gogewar kasuwa, sabuntawar bidiyo 52 na mako a kowace shekara, fayil ɗin jarin misali ga mambobi, da matsuguni a Birnin New York. Hanyarsa tana da asali mai suna — yana yaba wa “aikin farko na Walter Bressert”, manazarcin zagaye — kuma yana bayyana shi a matsayin nazarin tsarurruka masu maimaituwa da ake iya aunawa cikin farashi da lokaci, ba farashi kaɗai ba. Falsafarsa da ya bayyana ba ta da ƙawa da gangan: “I'm a realist. There's no holy grail of trading.”
Aikinsa na kuɗin dijital ya rabu da shirin hannun jari/tattalin arziki: yana buga nazarin Bitcoin a Bitcoin Live kaɗai, dandali na ɓangare na uku, ƙarƙashin tutar 4 Year Journey — fayil ɗin jarin misali na jama'a da ake tafiyar da shi bisa zagayen shekaru huɗu. Har ila yau yana kai sabuntawar bidiyo kyauta zuwa tashar YouTube mai kusan mabiya 150,000, a saurin watakila shida a shekara, kowanne yana da taken da kwanan wata (“It's Not Different This Time”, “Not Done Yet”, “ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd”). Bisa maganarsa, bidiyon YouTube na farko a tarihi game da zagayen shekaru 4 na Bitcoin nasa ne, a Disamba 2018. Wannan haɗin — ba kasafai ba, mai kwanan wata, kuma a haɗe da fayil ɗin jari da aka buga — shi ne ya sa tarihinsa ya zama mai iya bincike.
Akwai kuskure ɗaya da ya kamata ya kasance a tarihin kafin ka karanta jadawalin, domin yana can waje da tagar da aka zana a nan don haka ba za a iya ba shi maki ba. A Yuni 2025, sa'ad da Bitcoin ya kai kusan $110,000, Loukas ya gabatar da ra'ayin “double cycle blowoff” — kololuwa biyu maƙwabta na shekaru huɗu suna haɗuwa su zama ɗaya — kuma ya ce “if we've still got sort of a six to seven month expansion to a peak… that would lead us into maybe even a February or March peak”, tare da ninkawa zuwa $150,000–$170,000. Maimakon haka Bitcoin ya kai kololuwa kusan $126,000 a Oktoba 2025 kuma ya riga ya fara sauka kafin Fabrairu 2026. Ya bayyana a fili cewa waɗannan yanayi ne na yiwuwa ba tabbatattun hasashe ba — amma yanayin tsawaita da ya gabatar bai faru ba, kuma shi kansa ne daga baya ya faɗi haka a gaban kamara.
Sources: x.com/BobLoukas · his 4 Year Journey videos as reported by NewsBTC, Cointelegraph and U.Today · thefinancialtap.com · bitcoin.live/4yearcycle
Zagaye sama da hayaniya, a kan agogo mai tsawo. Loukas yana zana Bitcoin a matsayin zagayen shekaru huɗu da ake auna shi da makwannin zagayen, tare da gajerun zagayen yau da kullun da na mako a ciki, da kuma tsammani mai ƙarfi cewa zagaye na ƙarewa kamar yadda suka saba: sake gwaji, ƙananan ƙasa fiye da baya, sannan ƙasa a cikin tazarar lokaci. Yana aiki da matsakaita masu motsi na makonni 10 da watanni 10, da matakan tsakiyar zagayen (adadin $53,000 a wannan shafin shi ne tsakiyar dukkan zagayen shekaru huɗu), da kuma iyakar ra'ayin kasuwa. Ɗan kasuwa ne na matsayi — sayen fayil ɗin jarin misali a Yuni 2026 shi ne na farko cikin shekaru uku da rabi — don haka fifikonsa yana cikin rabon jari da haƙuri, ba wurin shiga ba. Ana ganin raunin a hasashen da ke ƙasa: tsarin da ke cewa “kullum akwai ƙasa da ta gabata” yana sa ka zama mai wuri a ƙasa, kuma mai jinkirin yarda cewa ƙasa ta riga ta kafu.
A tsari yana da kyakkyawan fata game da Bitcoin cikin zagayen — a ƙananan matakan 2026 yana saye ba sayarwa ba — amma a fili yana da mummunan fata game da kasuwar altcoin gaba ɗaya, kuma yana tsammanin gano farashi na gaskiya sai a 2028.
Eight dated calls from 26 February to 18 September 2026, each charted against real price. Six are his own X posts, captured verbatim from X's syndication endpoint; two come from press reports of his dated video updates and were substring-matched against the live articles. He is a cycle analyst, so the calls are structural (“another big leg lower,” “the end of a counter trend move,” “$53,000 is the midpoint”) rather than tight entries — we judged them on what price actually did next. The arc is unusually clean and it is not flattering in order, so the three misses come first: he spent February to April bearish and early, then called the May top almost to the day, bought the June lows, and in September called for a break of the May high. His October–November cycle-low window has not arrived and the September break has not yet reached his $90,000s, so both are logged open.
“If Bitcoin sees no counter-trend relief rally, and instead continues the downtrend to sub $50k (into March/April), the possibility this type of action induces an early 4 Year Cycle low is real.”
Posted on 26 February — a day that has since rolled out of this chart's price window, so the chart now anchors at $67,497 on 27 February. He floated a slide below $50,000 during March or April. It was framed as a possibility, not a target — but the path did not open. March and April never traded below $65,824, and even the eventual cycle low on 1 July only reached $58,566 (−13.2%). Price went the other way instead: from the anchor Bitcoin ran +28.3% to $86,597 and holds $84,107 (+24.6%). The verdict rests on the level he named, which the moving anchor cannot change.
𝕏 Post“…continues the downtrend to sub $50k” — @BobLoukas, 26 Feb 2026↗ x.com“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower.”
The worst-timed post on the page. U.Today reported the chart's target as roughly $49,000. He published it at $65,824 — which turned out to be the lowest price of March and April. Bitcoin rallied +13.5% to $74,679 within about a fortnight. A leg lower did eventually arrive, but not until July and only to $58,566 (−11.0%); $49,000 was never approached. Since the post Bitcoin has run +31.6% to $86,597 and holds $84,107 (+27.8%).
𝕏 Post“this weekly chart remains horrendous” — @BobLoukas, 2 Mar 2026↗ x.com“Bitcoin dominance bottomed out for the Cycle above 50%, without Bitcoin doing anything extraordinary, highlights the broader promise of Crypto has mostly failed.”
A call that Bitcoin's share of the market had bottomed — i.e. altcoins would keep losing ground. This hub can't chart the dominance index, so we score it on Solana as the tradeable alt proxy, and on that measure it went against him: from $86, SOL dipped −27.7% to $62, then ran +38.2% to $119 and holds $115 (+33.7%). Bitcoin over the identical span is +10.2%, so the altcoin proxy has clearly outperformed.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin dominance bottomed out for the Cycle above 50%” — @BobLoukas, 22 Apr 2026↗ x.com“At the $53,000 level, we're tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
From his 4 June video, published at $64,047: the cycle midpoint at $53,000 is where the model portfolio's remaining cash goes to reach a 100% allocation. His structural claim on the same call — “there's generally always a lower low” — did deliver: Bitcoin fell −8.6% to $58,566 on 1 July. But $53,000 never printed; price has since run +35.2% to $86,597 and holds $84,107 (+31.3%). His base case puts the cycle low in October or November 2026, which has not arrived, so this stays open by construction — although his own 18 September post, charted below, now talks about confirming a new bull market.
SourceVeteran Analyst Eyes $53,000 Bitcoin As Final Cycle Stage Begins — NewsBTC↗ newsbtc.com“Bitcoin - Getting close now to the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market. $85-$88k area.”
His best call, and the one that redeems the three above. At $79,826 he said the rally was a counter-trend bounce that was nearly finished. Bitcoin topped six days later at $82,018 (+2.7%) — the May high — and then fell −26.6% to $58,566. The $85–$88k zone he named was not reached in that move; Bitcoin only got there four months later, on 22 September, when it ran +8.5% to $86,597. It holds $84,107 (+5.4%). The level was off; the turn was right.
𝕏 Post“the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market” — @BobLoukas, 5 May 2026↗ x.com“The Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle Journey ‘Model Portfolio’ has made its first buy in 3.5yrs. Picking up 10BTC at $65,000.”
Not an opinion — a posted trade, and the model portfolio's first purchase since late 2022, taking it to roughly a 60% Bitcoin allocation. He was early, as his framework tends to make him: from the day's close of $66,727, price fell another −12.2% to $58,566 before turning. But it turned. Bitcoin has since run +29.8% to $86,597 and holds $84,107 (+26.0%). Judged as what it is — a cycle allocation, not an entry — it worked.
𝕏 Post“Picking up 10BTC at $65,000” — @BobLoukas, 3 Jun 2026↗ x.com“All the Bitcoin and Crypto FUD flooding the timeline is perfectly normal at this stage of a bear market. Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.”
Posted into peak capitulation at $60,990, six days before the cycle low. The drawdown after it was just −4.0% before Bitcoin ran +42.0% to $86,597; it holds $84,107 (+37.9%). One honest caveat: U.Today reported alongside this that he expected 3–5 months of sideways trade before a new cycle began in autumn; that part has not held, because price did not go sideways, it went up.
𝕏 Post“Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.” — @BobLoukas, 25 Jun 2026↗ x.com“Very good setup here for Bitcoin to smash through the May highs and confirm a new bull market. More importantly, the recent 4-week consolidation means any solid push through the highs is very likely a fresh new move that has legs (vs a trap) that might not look back until the $90's. Failure to break through sets up a move back to the lows of the range.”
A conditional call, posted at $76,371: a clean break of the May high ($82,018) would be a real move with legs that “might not look back until the $90's”; failure would send price back to the lows of the range. The first half came fast — four days later Bitcoin closed at $86,597 (+13.4%), its first close above the May high — and it holds $84,107 (+10.1%). But the $90,000s have not printed, and a six-day-old break is not yet the move with legs he described, so this is logged open. It also marks a clear shift: in June the same model portfolio was waiting on $53,000.
𝕏 Post“smash through the May highs and confirm a new bull market” — @BobLoukas, 18 Sep 2026↗ x.comOutcomes are our read of his stated position against real price, not his own scoring. Quotes are verbatim — X posts via the syndication endpoint, article quotes substring-matched against the live page, both linked on each card. The 22 April call is about Bitcoin dominance, which this hub cannot chart directly; we scored it against Solana as the tradeable altcoin proxy and say so on the card. His June 2025 “double cycle blowoff” miss pre-dates this window and is disclosed in the biography rather than scored here. The 26 February post has since aged out of the rolling price window, so its chart anchors on 27 February; its verdict rests on the $50,000 level he named, not the anchor.
Kayayyaki biyu masu biyan kuɗi, dukkansu na biyan kuɗi ne na wata-wata, kuma babu ɗayansu ƙungiyar sigina ba. Abin lura shi ne rabuwar: shirin hannun jari/tattalin arziki yana shafinsa ne, yayin da dukkan aikin Bitcoin — har da fayil ɗin jarin misali da aka ambata a wannan shafin — yana rayuwa a wani dandali na ɓangare na uku da ba nasa ba.
Shafinsa: sabuntawar bidiyo ta mako (52 a shekara), fayil ɗin jarin misali da rahotanni a rubuce a bayan biyan kuɗi. Yana bayyana shi a fili a matsayin ilimin zuba jari, ba sabis na ciniki ba.
Ya bayyana cewa yana buga nazarin Bitcoin da kuɗin dijital kaɗai a Bitcoin Live, inda fayil ɗin jarin misali na 4 Year Journey yake. Ana raba kuɗin biyan kuɗi a can da dandalin da ba ya sarrafa shi — abu ne mai kyau a sani lokacin da hasashe kuma taga siyarwa ne.
Sabuntawar bidiyo masu kwanan wata kyauta ne kuma ba kasafai ba — kusan shida a shekara. Su ne fuskar jama'a ta kayayyaki biyu masu biyan kuɗi, don haka ka karanta su a matsayin hujja, ba dukkan littafin ba. Babu wani token, kwas ko sanarwar musaya da ya bayyana a tarihin jama'a da muka duba.
“Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either.”
25 Jun 2026 · kwanaki shida kafin mafi ƙanƙantar zagayen“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous…”
02 Mar 2026 · an buga daidai a mafi ƙanƙantar Maris–Afrilu“At the $53,000 level, we're tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
04 Jun 2026 · matakin da fayil ɗin jarin misalinsa ke jira har yanzuAn ɗauko maganganun daga tushen jama'a nasa; ra'ayoyi ne da aka bayyana, ba shawarwari ba.
Loukas yana kai saƙo YouTube da ƙyar — kusan sau shida a shekara — kuma yana sanya kwanan wata a kowane bidiyo, wanda shi ne ya sa suke amfani a matsayin tarihi. Waɗannan su ne sabuntawarsa cikin tagar; bidiyon 4 Yuni shi ne inda hasashen $53,000 na wannan shafin ya fito. Lura: babu wani rubutun bidiyo da aka tabbatar a wannan uwar garken, don haka ba a ba wa komai daga bidiyo maki a matsayin hasashe ba — sai ambaton jarida game da su da saƙonninsa.
The Ebb and FlowHis most recent update, nine days before the 18 September post charted above.09 Sep 2026
Signs of a New MarketEarly-September update, posted two weeks before his call for a break of the May high.05 Sep 2026
ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAdBidiyon mai take na ba'a da ke bayan hasashen tsakiyar zagayen na $53,000.04 Jun 2026
Not Done YetSabuntawa a tsakiyar sauka, daga lokacin da yake da mummunan fata kuma da wuri.16 Apr 2026
It's Not Different This TimeSake bayyana tsarin zagayen yayin da saukar 2026 ke ƙara ƙarfi.05 Feb 2026Ɗan kasuwa ne na matsayi mai shekaru 30+ a kasuwanni, wanda ya kafa shafin biyan kuɗi na The Financial Tap, kuma manazarcin da aka fi haɗawa da zagayen shekaru huɗu na Bitcoin — ya ce bidiyon YouTube na farko kan wannan batu nasa ne, a Disamba 2018. Yana zaune a Birnin New York kuma yana buga nazarin Bitcoin ɗinsa a Bitcoin Live ƙarƙashin tutar “4 Year Journey”.
Tsari ne na lokaci, wanda ya gada daga manazarcin zagaye Walter Bressert, wanda ke zana Bitcoin a matsayin zagaye na kusan shekaru huɗu da ake auna shi da makonni, tare da gajerun zagayen yau da kullun da na mako a ciki. Yana ɗauke da tsammani mai ƙarfi cewa zagaye na ƙarewa da sake gwaji da aƙalla ƙasa ɗaya da ta gabata cikin tazarar lokaci — wanda a 2026 ya sanya shi kusan Oktoba ko Nuwamba.
Ba a tabbatar da ita a fili ba. Kuɗin shigar da ya bayyana shi ne na biyan kuɗi daga The Financial Tap da Bitcoin Live, tare da matsayinsa na kansa. Ka yi watsi da duk wani adadi na musamman — babu wanda aka tabbatar.
He is a commentator, not a licensed adviser, and the 2026 record here is genuinely split: three misses in the first half of the year — including a bearish post published on the exact low of March and April — against a top call six days early, a posted buy at $65,000 on a day Bitcoin closed at $66,727, now +26.0%, and a contrarian bottom read that is +37.9%. His June 2025 call for a February–March 2026 cycle peak also missed. Treat it as a documented, dated opinion — never trade it blindly.
Wurare uku: sabuntawar bidiyo kyauta masu kwanan wata a YouTube (~150K mabiya, kusan shida a shekara), shafinsa na biyan kuɗi The Financial Tap don hannun jari da tattalin arziki, da Bitcoin Live — inda, a cewarsa, nazarin Bitcoin da kuɗin dijital nasa ke fitowa kaɗai, har da fayil ɗin jarin misali na 4 Year Journey.
Loukas yana cinikin agogo, ba kanun labarai ba: inda kake a zagayen shi ke tantance rabon jari, kuma fayil ɗin jarin misali na iya tsayawa shekaru uku da rabi. Yaya kusancin hankalinka — ka auna shi da gaske da Trader Passport.
Yanzu ka sanya amsarka aiki. Gwada gwanintarka kan bayanan kasuwa na kai tsaye — babin haɗarin jari — a gasar BuyCrypt kyauta mai kyaututtuka na gaske.
Nazari ne na bayanai da ilimi wanda ya dogara sosai kan kayan da jama'a ke iya samu — saƙonninsa masu kwanan wata na X, waɗanda aka ɗauka kalma-da-kalma, da rahotannin jarida masu kwanan wata game da sabuntawar bidiyonsa na jama'a, an haɗa su a kowane hasashe. Ba a shiga wani abun ciki mai biyan kuɗi na The Financial Tap ko Bitcoin Live ba. Ba shawara ce ta kuɗi ko zuba jari ba. Adadi kusan-kusan ne kuma yana canzawa kullum. Spotted an error, or are you Bob? Gabatar da gyara →
An tabbatar da masu amfani · An ambaci tushe a sama · Hanyar ba da maki · An sabunta 24 September 2026
